Leontief (1970) demonstrated how environmental regulation increased GDP, in which cost of maintaining certain level of environmental quality turned out to be the top-up.
Our MR-CGE results prompted us to further consider if GDP is a good measure of economic well-being. A misleading index for economic development may result in mis-allocation of limited resource of the economy as well as the free resource from the natural environment.
Kaomei was not paid a price (or value) commensurate with the brilliant job it has been quietly doing. Once the Kaomei wetland was converted into industrial/commercial built-up area, the government will have to build a surrogate water purification facility to
22
render same level of environmental quality. This will cost the economy not just the face value of the construction bill, but could well be twice or even more. If the Kaomei could be conserved, the spared budget could be used to generate much greater economic payoff than the replacement cost of building a water purification facility with Kaomei’s
processing capacity. Based on our study, it will be wise to not under-value ecosystem services, lest it may render mis-aligned strategy for sustainable development of the economy and the environment.
In addition, our study also suggested a need for recording in the economic
accounting, such as Green GDP, the contribution of ecosystem services being provided by the environment free of charge. For the case of Taiwan, valuation of ecosystem service is planned, but not yet accounted for (see Figure 10). Our approach offers an alternative measure for replacement cost in presenting the value of ecosystem services.
Figure 10. The accounting structure of Taiwan’s Green GDP accounts
Source: DGBAS (2010).
23
References
Bastiat, Frédéric. (1850). "That Which Is Seen, and That Which Is Not Seen," essay.
Barbier EB (2007). Valuing ecosystem services as productive inputs. Econ Policy 22:177–229.
Bateman, I., Mace, G., Fezzi, C., Atkinson, G., & Turner, K. (2011). Economic Analysis for Ecosystem Service Assessments. Environmental and Resource Economics, 48(2), 177-218. doi: 10.1007/s10640-010-9418-x
Bateman IJ, Day BH, Dupont D, Georgiou S (2009) Procedural invariance testing of the one-and-one-halfbound dichotomous choice elicitation method. Rev Econ Stat 91(4):806–820. doi:10.1162/rest.91.4.806
Boyer, Tracy, and Polasky Stephen. (2004). Valuing Urban Wetlands: A Review of Non-Market Valuation Studies. Wetlands. vol.4, issue 24. December 2004. 744–755.
Brown, M. T., and M. B. Vivas. (2005). Landscape development intensity index. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 101:289-309.
Chen, T.-S., & Lin, H.-J. (2011). Application of a Landscape Development Intensity Index for Assessing Wetlands in Taiwan. Wetlands, 31(4), 745-756. doi:
10.1007/s13157-011-0191-6
Costanza et al. (1997). The value of the world's ecosystem services and natural capital. Nature 387:253-260.
DGBAS. (2010). Green GDP Accounting of Taiwan, 2009. Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS), Executive Yuan, Taiwan.
Geber, U., & Björklund, J. (2002). The relationship between ecosystem services and purchased input in Swedish wastewater treatment systems — a case study. Ecological Engineering, 19(1), 97-117. doi: 10.1016/s0925-8574(02)00079-4
Heal GM, Barbier EB, Boyle KJ, Covich AP, Gloss SP, Hershner CH, Hoehn JP, Pringle CM, Polasky S, Segerson K, Shrader-Frechette K (2005) Valuing ecosystem services: toward better environmental decision making. The National Academies Press, Washington.
Horridge, J.M., Madden, J.R. and G. Wittwer (2005), "The impact of the 2002-03 drought on Australia", Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol 27/3, pp. 285-308.
Kaval P (2010)Asummary of ecosystem service economic valuationmethods and
recommendations for future studies. Working paper series #10Department of Economics, University of Waikato.
Leontief, W. (1970). Environmental Repercussions and the Economic Structure: An Input-Output Approach. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 52(3), 262-271.
Leontief, Wassily W. (1986) Input-Output Economics. 2nd ed., New York: Oxford University Press.
Lin, H.-J. (2011). Valuation of Ecosystem Services of the Kaomei Wetland. Working paper.
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) (2005) Ecosystems and human well-being: a framework for assessment. Island Press, Washington DC.
24
TEEB (2010) The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity: Mainstreaming the Economics of Nature: A synthesis of the approach, conclusions and recommendations of TEEB.
Wang (2007). National Land Use Survey Data. 國土利用調查成果應用發表會.
25
計畫成果自評
本研究計畫小幅修改研究方向：本研究計畫修改原計畫書中之區域經濟影響評估方 向，嘗試以多區域經濟模型評估濕地之生態服務價值(以替代成本法為例)—此為文獻中尚 未有學者提議之做法，本研究立基於總計畫主持人所推估之濕地生態服務價值之替代成本 (replacement cost)，試圖提議以投入產出分析方法及可計算一般均衡分析方法評估直接及 間接替代成本。本研究成果可再進一步與Regional Ecological Footprint Analysis 結合，分 析各產業部門之ecosystem service appropriation。
本研究計畫成果已於2011 年 11 月中旬受邀在東北大學全球頂尖大學計畫(Global Core of Excellence, GCOE)生態適應主題計畫所舉辦之 Ecosystem and Adaptation Forum 發表。目 前正在改寫成期刊論文。
26
可供推廣之研發成果資料表
□ 可申請專利 □ 可技術移轉 日期： 年 月 日
國科會補助計畫
計畫名稱：
計畫主持人：
計畫編號： 學門領域：
技術/創作名稱
(無)發明人/創作人
技術說明
中文：
（100~500 字）
英文：
可利用之產業 及 可開發之產品
技術特點
推廣及運用的價值
※ 1.每項研發成果請填寫一式二份，一份隨成果報告送繳本會，一份送 貴單位
研發成果推廣單位（如技術移轉中心）。
※ 2.本項研發成果若尚未申請專利，請勿揭露可申請專利之主要內容。
※ 3.本表若不敷使用，請自行影印使用。
1
國科會補助專題研究計畫項下出席國際學術會議心得報告
日期：100 年 7 月 30 日
一、 參加會議經過
2011 年 6 月 29 日至 7 月 2 日於 The University of Rome Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy 舉行的第 18 屆歐洲環境與資源經濟學會年會(18th Annual Conference of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (EAERE))。會 議主題涵蓋相當廣闊，包含環境與資源經濟學相關領域議題，熱門議題如：
氣候變遷、京都議定書、能源供給、排放權交易、碳稅、CGE 模型與環境、
環境價值評估等，此外，相較冷門議題如：生態多樣性、有害廢棄物處理與 減量、氣候變遷調適等。
會議第一天(6 月 29 日)主要為 PRE CONFERENCE ON WASTE ECONOMICS 及 International Consortium on Applied Bioeconomy Research (ICABR)與 EAERE 共同舉辦之 Policy Session: Sustainability of Food, Agriculture and Bioenergy。會議第二-四天(6 月 30 日至 7 月 2 日)為為論文發表(parallel sessions)，同時也各邀請 Prof. Sir Partha Dasgupta (University of Cambridge)發表 keynote speech: Modelling Individual Consumption；Prof. Dale Jorgenson (Harvard University)發表 Energy, the Environment and U.S. Economic Growth。此外，大會 也安排 IPCC Policy session: the IPCC Working Group III Special Report on
Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN)，由 Prof. Carlo Carraro 及 Prof. Richard Tol 發表 keynote speech。本研究就計畫主持人於會議中
計畫編號 NSC 99－2621－M－004－007－
計畫名稱 人工濕地生態系統功能與經濟效益評估－人工濕地對台灣整
(英文) 18th Annual Conference of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (EAERE)
發表論文題目
(中文)
(英文) The Potential Impact of Climate Change on Global Rice Market and Food Security in Asia
每天的 Poster Session 發表” The Potential Impact of Climate Change on Global Rice Market and Food Security in Asia”一文。詳細議程如附件一。
二、與會心得與建議
歐洲環境與資源經濟學會年會為環境與資源經濟學領域重要國際研討會，文 章發表接受審查嚴格，本研究計畫主持人對於能獲接受於該會議中發表研究 結果感到相當榮幸。參與本次年會的學者多為全球深耕環境經濟分析與政策 議題相關研究領域多年的資深教研人員。本研究計畫主持人於此次會議中學 習獲益良多，透過聆聽演講學習與會研究者對於各國環境經濟領域最新研究 議題及成果，並進一步建立與國際上環境經濟學者之連結與交流，並建立未 來國際研究合作人脈。(註：本研究計畫主持人於此次會議中接受日本東北大 學 Global Center of Excellence (GCOE)生態適應計畫邀請於 2011 年 11 月中旬 前往日本東北大學 GCOE Ecosystem and Adaptation Forum 發表研究成果。)
三、攜回資料名稱及內容
研討會議程手冊。
四、研討會記實(Selective photos)
Fig. 1. Poster presentation (1): 本研究計畫主持人
3
Fig. 2. Poster presentation (2): 聽眾
Fig. 3. Pre-Conference on Waste Economics
Fig. 4. Sir Partha Dasgupta at the International Consortium on Applied Bioeconomy Research
Fig. 5. Panel discussion at the International Consortium on Applied
Bioeconomy Research
5
Fig. 6. Sir Partha Dasgupta keynote speech at the EAERE
Fig. 7. Plenary session see at the EAERE
Fig. 8. Prof. Carlo Carraro keynote speech at the IPCC Policy Session of
the EAERE
<<附件一>>
The Potential Impact of Climate Change on Global Rice Market and Food Security in Asia
Huey-Lin Lee * and Ching-Cheng Chang **
* Dept. of Economics, National Chengchi University, Taipei Taiwan
** Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
Abstract
Geographically diverse impact of climate change on crop yield affects directly both producing and import-reliant countries of crops. Food security is of particular policy concern for rice consuming and importing countries in Asia. We use a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model, in which crop suitability of farm land is identified when allocating land between uses, to simulate the impact of climate-induced yield change on global rice production and prices. Among Asian countries, India gets the hardest hit of climate change in its rice production, and a huge increase in the unit cost of rice production. China also has to increase rice imports, with a relatively bigger magnitude than the other Asian countries. India and China have been the world’s top rice-growing countries, and most of their rice production is consumed domestically. Should negative effects of rice yield occur in these two major rice-consuming countries, their raised demand for rice imports may push up global price of rice, and in turn affect regions that are very much reliant on foreign supply. Climate impact on Brazil’s rice production further exacerbates the food security problem for Mexico and Latin American countries that are highly dependent on Brazilian rice. As agricultural trade intensifies, impact of climate change, be it positive or negative, occurring in one region will spill over into other regions, through the channels of trade.
As such, policy measures aimed to alleviate food insecurity problem should take into account the geographically diverse impact of climate change on crop yield.
Research framework
Our study attempted to provide an integrated economic assessment on rice in the global and regional context. We se a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) GTAP model—which also considers crop suitability and agro-ecological zoning (AEZ) characteristics—to analyze the climate-change impact on global rice market (supply-side shock through crop yield change), with the consideration of changes in food demand due to population and economic growth.
Climate change would affect the supply curve of rice (domestic or imported), and population and income growth affect the demand curve of rice. We consider changes in both the supply and demand sides shocks to examine the impact of climate change by 2020 on the global rice market and food security should the world is developing as plotted in the IPCC SRES scenario A2.
Implications
Key implications derived from the simulation results are:
1. Among Asian countries, India gets the hardest hit of climate change in its rice production, and a huge increase in the unit cost of rice production. Thus India has to rely heavily on imports from the world market to meet its domestic rice demand.
2. Though not as detrimental as that in India, the climate-induced rice yield change by 2020 is going to make China, the fastest growing economy in Asia, to increase rice imports, with a relatively bigger magnitude than the other Asian countries.
3. India and China have been the world’s top rice-growing countries, and most of their rice production is consumed domestically. Should negative effects of rice yield occur in these two major rice-consuming countries, their raised demand for rice import may push up the global price of rice, and in turn affect regions that are very much reliant on foreign supply.
4. According to FAOSTAT statistics, Mexico and most Latin American countries have been the top rice-importing regions of the world. Once India and China push up the global rice price, Mexico and other Latin American countries would have to pay more for their rice demand. In the estimates of Rosenzweig and Iglesias (2001), Mexico and other Latin American countries may also be hit with loss in rice yield.
Likewise, climate change may inflict rice yield reduction upon Brazil—a key rice exporter in this region—which would further exacerbates the food insecurity problem for countries highly dependent on Brazilian rice.
5. As agricultural trade intensifies, impact of climate change, be it positive or negative, occurring in one region will spill over into other regions, through the channels of trade. As such, policy measures aimed to effectively alleviate food security problem should also take into account the geographically diverse impact of climate change on crop yields.
References
Hertel, T. W. (Ed.). (1997). Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications. Cambridge:
Cambridge University Press.
Lee, H. L. (2009). The Impact of Climate Change on Global Food Supply and Demand, Food Prices, and Land Use. Paddy and Water Environment, 7(4), 321-331.
Lee, H.-L., Hertel, T. W., Rose, S. K., and Avetisyan, M. (2009). An Integrated Global Land Use Data Base for CGE Analysis of Climate Policy Options, in Hertel, T., Rose, S., and Tol, R. (eds)
Economic Analysis of Land Use in Global Climate Change Policy, Routledge.
Rosenzweig, C., & Iglesias, A. (2001). Potential Impacts of Climate Change on World Food Supply:
Data Sets from a Major Crop Modeling Study from http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/giss_crop_study/
Key results
Changes in crop yield
General Circulation Models Global temp. and precip. change
Crop process model Economic model: GTAP-LU
IPCC SRES scenarios: narrative storylines Quantified SRES scenarios:
socioeconomic drivers
No. Regions Rice Wheat Other
grains
Oilseeds No. Regions Rice Wheat Other grains
Estimates of climate-induced crop yield change (%) for the 19 regions of this study*
Source: Production share weighted average, over constituent countries, of estimates by Rosenzweig and Iglesias(2001).
* CO
2fertilization effect is included in these estimates.
Unit: % (A) (B) (C) (D)
No. Regions Production Unit Cost Export Import
1 CAN 14.93 0.05 58.19 -4.71
Global distribution of Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZ)
Production structure of the agricultural sectors
Nesting structure for AEZ-specific land supply
Simulation design with the GTAP land use CGE model
國科會補助計畫衍生研發成果推廣資料表
日期:2012/01/31
國科會補助計畫
計畫名稱: 人工濕地對台灣整體及區域經濟之衝擊影響及其溫室氣體減量潛力評估(III) 計畫主持人: 李慧琳
計畫編號: 99-2621-M-004-007- 學門領域: 永續發展研究-人文及社會科學
無研發成果推廣資料
99 年度專題研究計畫研究成果彙整表
計畫主持人：李慧琳 計畫編號：99-2621-M-004-007-
計畫名稱：人工濕地生態系統功能與經濟效益評估--人工濕地對台灣整體及區域經濟之衝擊影響及其
其他成果
(
無法以量化表達之成果如辦理學術活動、獲 得獎項、重要國際合 作、研究成果國際影響 力及其他協助產業技 術發展之具體效益事 項等，請以文字敘述填 列。)
無.
成果項目 量化 名稱或內容性質簡述
測驗工具(含質性與量性) 0
課程/模組 0
電腦及網路系統或工具 0
教材 0
舉辦之活動/競賽 0
研討會/工作坊 0
電子報、網站 0
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目 計畫成果推廣之參與（閱聽）人數 0
國科會補助專題研究計畫成果報告自評表
本研究成果可再進一步與 Regional Ecological Footprint Analysis 結合, 分析各產業 部門之 ecosystem service appropriation.