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and future situation of Obama Administration arms sales to Taiwan policy.
Chapter 5: Conclusions:
This chapter will summarize the results and findings of the study.
1.3 Literature Review and Methodology
Literature Review
The thesis includes Chinese and English literature. Chinese literature is mainly from Taiwan's thesis and journals, and also from mainland China's books and journals.
English literature is mainly from journals, news and networks. There are political purposes, economic purposes and international diplomatic strategy purposes behind the US arms sales to Taiwan; Lin,Yen-Che noted in 1988: Since the 1930s, the United States arms export causes a close relationship with foreign policy, and even after the end of the World War II, it has become a foreign policy tool. Today's military sales system evolves from “Foreign Assistance Act” in 1954 and adds the “Foreign Military Sales Act” and
“International Security Assistance and Arms Export Con-trol Act” to the act. The act includes from the visible “weapons” defense equipment to invisible technology services, the training of military personnel and other software. The United States foreign arms exports can be divided into “security assistance” and “sales” categories. The former is free, and the latter is not free which is divided into “direct commercial sale” and “foreign military sale”. There are two reasons for foreign governments’ preferences to use “foreign military sale” approach:
(A)The United States Department of Defense can help to provide complete weapon system transfer.
(B)This approach is the contract signed by the U.S. Department of Defense and manufacturers, so it has the export guarantee from the U.S. Government.
The United States is located at the international hegemony of force which expects to play the role of international policeman. The decision-making process is diplomatic secret
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because the different motivation of every arms export case. For many years policy- makers revealed US foreign arms sales motivation and purpose, as listed below:
(1) To support the allies.
(2) To promote regional balance of power.
(3) To strengthen US political influence.
(4) To establish close relations with foreign military leaders.
(5) Economic factors. (Including stabilization of the military-industrial productivity of U.S., sharing the cost of weapons, the balance of foreign trade and accumulation of oil and money.) (林岩哲，1988)
There are many reasons behind arms sales to Taiwan, such as domestic political reasons, economic reasons and the considerations of international situation and foreign policy. It is difficult to say that they are completely determined by a single reason. It should be combined with above-mentioned reasons. Hereby the literature described as below:
Lin, Cheng-Yi proposed that the Bush Administration decided to sell F-16 fighters to Taiwan because on July 14, 1992, Texas Congressman Joe Barton received the General Dynamics Corporation’s petition to abandon the Bush Administration restrictions on F-16 fighters sales to Taiwan. Senator Lloyd Bentsen also lobbied for selling F-16 fighters to Taiwan in order to save the jobs of three thousand employees in General Dynamics Corporations. Bush Administration had the pressure from Texas constituency then decided to sell F-16 fighters to Taiwan. (林正義，1993)
Professor Chen, I-Hsin discusses the reason for sales of US F-16A / B fighter jets and E-2T aircraft to Taiwan is the change of the international situation. Bush also realized that the U.S. should sell the weapon systems to Taiwan which they did not sell before because the end of Cold war and the change of international situation. Most importantly, the U.S. became the only super power that it dared to sell weapons to Taiwan ten times more than before without considering China’s reaction after the end of the Cold War.
During the Post-Cold War, US arms sales to Taiwan was obviously more advanced than that in the Cold War. There are a lot of reasons for that, but the most important reason is the change of the international situation without doubt. (陳一新，1995)
Chinese scholars analyzed that the Bush Administration's sale of F-16 fighter jets to
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Taiwan in 1992 changed the policy of US arms sales to Taiwan. It also reflected the intention of US strategic policy toward China after the end of Cold War. The United States lost the greatest external threat cause the disintegration of the Soviet Union. The ideological basis during the Cold War of US foreign strategy no longer existed, so the strategic interest was the dominant factor of US arms sales to Taiwan. (張清敏、羅斌輝，
2006)
Navy Lieutenant Colonel Chia, Chih-Chung notes that Taiwan's security has great interest for American strategic balance in Asia-Pacific region. For example, “Washington Post” analyzed on February 5, 2001, President Bush and President Reagan hoped to change the security of the global balance of power in the country starting from the root and took a strong leadership to maintain relations with allies. Bush's national security strategy idea was: “The strategy with both efficiency and thoughtfulness can find the basic reason the instability, and then defuse tensions before causing conflict situation.”
This argument also proposed the central idea of arms sales to Taiwan.5(賈智中， 2004) The former defense minister Tsai, Ming-Hsien: “Facing the rapid expansion of the China’s military force and the military defense budget increases over a percentage of annual double-digit, not only the military balance in the Taiwan Strait is beneficial to China little by little, but also have a significant impact and the challenges to the Asia-Pacific security and defense of the U.S. and Japan. If the U.S. refuses to sell F16-C / D fighter jets and submarines to Taiwan, that will jeopardize Taiwan’s energy of self-defense. The People's Liberation Army can have more energy from their current offshore strategy to extend to the maritime strategy, including a wide depth of their strategy across the U. S., Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines Asia-Pacific defense first island chain, and direct threat to the US-Japan strategic advantage in the Asia and Taiwan, but it is also a major challenge to the U.S., Japan security agreement”.6(蔡明憲， 2011)
Yang Ying analyzes that US arms sales to Taiwan has several reasons. One of the reasons is the commercial interests. “Taiwan is fairly large from 1996 to 2003 into arms market in eight years. Taiwan’s military purchase is total nearly US$ 20 billion which
5賈智中(2004)。從華美軍售看中、美政治角力。國防雜誌，(20)1。
6蔡明憲(2011，9 月)。美國軍售台灣的戰略意義與省思-兼論美、台、中的戰略調整與評估。新世紀智庫論壇，
55。
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ranks second in the world. Since 2003, the Department of Defense budget is US$ 17.75 billion. US arms sales to Taiwan has always been the big fat for US arms trade. For example, in 1993 the U.S. sold Taiwan four E-2T airborne early warning aircraft about the amount of US$ 900 million, the average price of each aircraft was more than US$ 200 million dollars. In 1998 the U.S. sold Taiwan four S-70C anti-submarine helicopters up to NT$2.4 billion. In addition to earning high profits, arms sales to Taiwan also enables enterprises to maintain production status and offer some jobs. It also becomes a considerate factor of the US economy. Besides, the U.S. often sells less advanced and less important weapons to Taiwan at high price, even sells Taiwan the P-3C anti-submarine aircraft which stops producing. This is not only able to solve a lot of elimination of armaments process problems, but also to make a profit.”7(楊穎， 2006)
Cho, Hui-Wan and Yang Shih-Yueh analyze that the President Bush was in power then approved the a large amount of the arms sales to Taiwan. It is considered to be one major breakthrough in US-Taiwan relations. And furthermore, the low quality of US arms sales to Taiwan is not only lower than that of the U.S., but is also lower than other countries which the U.S. sold. The consideration of US arms sales to Taiwan is to keep the cross-strait military force balanced, but the U.S. balance of military power does not need to maintain cross-strait equal quality and quantity military force, as long as maintain Taiwan's defense force.8 (卓慧菀、楊仕樂，2003)
Kerry Dumbaugh in “Taiwan-U.S. Relations: Developments and Policy implications” analyzes that U.S. Sales to Taiwan have been a useful U.S. policy lever in U.S.-Taiwan-PRC relations. The future US arms sales may have been significant implication for cross-strait ties. A story from Taiwan newspaper alleged that the U.S.
military officials worry about the potential military exchange between Taiwan-PRC would provide PRC with opportunity to learn U.S. military technology sold to Taiwan and jeopardize future U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.9(Kerry Dumbaugh, 2009)
Shirley A. Kan, the specialist in Asian Security Affairs, analyzes that during the
7楊穎(2006，10 月)。中美建交以來美國對台軍售問題。理論觀察，5，32。
8卓慧菀與楊仕樂(2003，11-12 月)。美國小布希政府對台軍售之分析:維持兩岸軍力平衡。問題與研究，42(6)，
67、81。
9 Dumbaugh, K. (2009, November 2). Taiwan-U.S. Relations: Developments and Policy Implications (pp. 21-22).
Washington, D.C.: Congressional Research Service.
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Taiwan Strait crisis of 1995-1996, the PLA’s provocative exercises and missile test-firings that were directed against Taiwan. Congress has increasingly asserted its role vis-a-vis the Administration in determining security assistance for Taiwan. The Pentagon has assessed Taiwan’s defense needs, starting a dozen studies from 1997 to early 2004. Congress could inquire such reports to decide the arms sales to Taiwan. The Defense Secretary has told Congress in required annual reports on PRC military power that the balance of forces across the Taiwan Strait has continued to shift to the PRC’s favor in recent years. After Ma Ying-Jeou became President in May 2008, despite the closer cross-strait engagement between Taiwan and China, the PLA’s build-up opposite Taiwan has continued, and the deployment of advanced capabilities opposite the island has not eased.10( Shirley A. Kan, 2014)
Denny Roy, a senior research fellow at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, who specialized in China-related security issues, points out the arms sales raise questions about fundamental strategic assumptions in the cross-Strait standoff. “American anxiousness that Taiwan moves quickly to purchase the weapons on offer is based on the assessment that Taiwan needs to counter the growing military imbalance on favor of the People’s Liberation Army. The underlying assumption is that balance causes peace by deterring China from attacking, while and an imbalance favoring China would encourage Beijing to opt for military solution.” ”The arms sale issue itself will not be the cause of long-lasting or serious damage to the U.S.-Taiwan relationship, but it is one of the several episodes in postwar history that have exposed the mild but persistent undercurrents of mutual suspicion and confliction interests”.11(Denny Roy, 2004)
The comments of this thesis about the above-mentioned Chinese and English literatures are listed as below:
According to the above-mentioned China and Taiwan scholars’ literature, the thesis finds out that the reasons behind US arms sales to Taiwan are political reason, international situation reason, strategic reason, and economic reason. Taking President Bush’s decision to sell F-16 fighters to Taiwan in 1992 as the case study, although it was
10 Kan, Shirley A.(2014,March 3).Taiwan: Major U.S. Arms Sales Since 1990(pp.3-4,pp.26-27).Washington, D.C.:
Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress.
11 Roy, D. (2004, April). U.S.-Taiwan Arms Sales: The Perils of Doing Business with Friends. Asia-Pacific Security Studies, 3(3), 1-4.
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to create the jobs opportunity in Taxes, there were also accompanied by the President Bush’s personal interest considerations - to win the Texas votes. He also did not want Taiwan to purchase Mirage fighters from France. Economic interest is not the main purpose of US arms sale to Taiwan. The economic profit of the fighters sales to Taiwan is still helpful to the United States, but because the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the end of Cold War, the U.S. did not need to cooperate with China against the Soviet Union. China is not as strategically important as it used to be. This is the result of US global strategy adjustment and the change of international situation. Advanced fighters sales to Taiwan was not just to solve the unemployment problems of workers and President George Bush’s wish to win 32 votes in Texas. From the western scholars’ point of view, they analyze the impact of US arms sales to Taiwan from the point of view which the U.S. worries that the cross-strait military exchanges which might reveal military science and technology secrets to China. They also analyze from the angle of the cross-strait military balance to access whether to sell arms to Taiwan or not. Even after President Ma Ying-jeou was in power, cross-strait relations are getting closer and under the premise of China’s not giving up the force against Taiwan. The United States will continue to sell arms to Taiwan. As a matter of fact, US arms sales to foreign countries have the diplomatic strategy consideration. The U.S. will continue to provide Taiwan with weapons to counter balance between China and Taiwan.
Methodology
Theory
The theory of the thesis is national security theory. National security is a concept that the government should protect and preserve its citizens and territory against the national crises from outside. It has involved a lot of complex issues, including coordinating military power, economic power, diplomacy, energy security, environment
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security and political power in ways that are beneficial to the nation as a whole.12 There are various definitions of national security. Walter Lippmann (1943) defined that “a nation has security when it does not have to sacrifice its legitimate interests to avoid war, and is able, if challenged, to maintain them by war”. According to Charles Maier (1990), national security is defined as:
“
National security... is best described as a capacity to control those domestic and foreign conditions that the public opinion of a given community believes necessary to enjoy its own self-determination or autonomy, prosperity and well-being.”13 Harold Brown enlarged the definition of national security:“National security then is the ability to preserve the nation’s physical integrity and territory; to maintain its economic relations with the rest of the world on reasonable terms;
to protect its nature, institutions, and governance from disruption from outside; and to control its borders.”14
National security policy must be amended to respond to the changing security environment and challenges, that is, the policy is to construct a national strategy for sustainable survival and development in order to cope with immediate and potential threats. It can form the guidance of future national development principle by using the security strategy.
Approach
In this study, a geo-strategic approach will be applied. Taiwan is located in the central link of first island chain. And, therefore, possesses a geopolitical strategic position in the Southeast China Sea. Abandoning Taiwan would likely fail to ameliorate the Sino-U.S. relationship and considerably enhance China’s military and geostrategic position in Asia. It would also erode American credibility in the Indo-Pacific and add fuel to an ongoing regional arms race.15 If China mastered Taiwan, it could control the Pacific
12 Kallen, S.(2008). National Security (p.12). San Diego, CA: ReferencePoint Press.
13 Romm, J. (1993). The Concept of National Security. In Defining national security: The nonmilitary aspects (p. 5).
New York: Council on Foreign Relations Press.
14 Brown, H. (1983). Thinking about national security: Defense and foreign policy in a dangerous world. Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press.
15 Rehman, I. (2014, February 28). Why Taiwan Matters. Retrieved April 8, 2015, from
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Ocean. This will be a direct threat to the United States, but also shows the importance of Taiwan's status. Against the above-mentioned background, this study is aim at examining and analyzing the significance of US arms sales to Taiwan from the geo-strategic position of Taiwan.
Method
The method of this thesis is literature analysis. The method is to use existing major papers, books, official documents to understand how the evolution it is from the past to the present based on the past historical background, and then infer how the evolution it is from the present to future by present information. This paper also sorts out and analyzes from known information and predicts the future.
http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/why-taiwan-matters-9971
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History and Evolution of US Arms Sales to Taiwan Policy
From 1950s to 1960s during the Cold War, Taiwan was an American outpost of anti-communist. After the outbreak of Korean War in 1950, US General Douglas MacArthur once considered Taiwan as “unsinkable aircraft carrier”. From 1970s to 1980s, the United States and the People’s Republic of China were allies in order to balance Soviet Union. Taiwan has become the suppressed object of US national defense and military diplomacy. After collapsing of the Soviet Union, Russia is no longer a threat to U.S. and mainland China is rising to become the economic and military hegemony.
Mainland China has never given up using military force against Taiwan. US Government was aware of threat from mainland China. Due to the balance of power and national interest considerations, US arms sales to Taiwan policy have become a very important diplomatic tool to achieve policy goal.16
2.1 From1950--1979 U.S. Military Cooperation with Taiwan and Arms Sales to Taiwan before Breaking off Diplomatic Relations
After Republic of China moved to Taiwan, the U.S. President Harry S. Truman announced on January 5, 1950, that the United States would not become involved in any dispute about Taiwan Strait, and that he would not intervene in the event of an attack by
16 參考臧承祖(2002，1 月)。美國對台軍售與兩岸互動關係 1982-1996(頁 9)。國立政治大學外交學系戰略與國
際事務碩士在職專班論文，未出版，台北。
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United States, and he sent the U.S. Navy's Seventh Fleet into the Taiwan Strait to prevent any conflict between the Republic of China and the People's Republic of China, effectively putting Taiwan under American protection.18The U.S. did not give Taiwan military aid until the Korean War on June 25, 1950.
Under the “Military Assistance Program” (MAP)19, the U.S. conducted free transfer weapons to Taiwan and other allies from 1950 to 1965. Especially after the 1954
“Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty” was signed, the arms transfers from the United States to Taiwan were without hindrance.
On January 3, 1951, the United States Government under the “Sino-US Mutual military aid to the government of the Republic of China in order to enhance resistance to invasion when he reported to Congress about the US military assistance to the Republic of China. The President also indicated that there would have the value of US$230 million military supplies to transfer to five Southeast Asian countries at the end of the same year, including Taiwan.21 In October 1952, the U.S. Military Assistance Advisory Group had announced that they would hand over a group of fighters to Taiwan.22
On January 3, 1951, the United States Government under the “Sino-US Mutual military aid to the government of the Republic of China in order to enhance resistance to invasion when he reported to Congress about the US military assistance to the Republic of China. The President also indicated that there would have the value of US$230 million military supplies to transfer to five Southeast Asian countries at the end of the same year, including Taiwan.21 In October 1952, the U.S. Military Assistance Advisory Group had announced that they would hand over a group of fighters to Taiwan.22