• 沒有找到結果。

We implement the skewed-t GARCH model to the above dataset and derive the

empirical copula of the standardized GARCH innovations displayed in Figure 1. The

empirical copula would converge to the true copula function under the regularity

condition; for instance, Gaenssler and Stute (1987) or van der Vaart and Wallner (1996).

Figure 1: The empirical copula of the standardized GARCH innovations Pair 1: MSCI Pacific vs MSCI Far East Pair 2: MSCI Energy vs MSCI Bank

Pair 3: CRB vs MSCI Latin America Pair 4: S&P500 vs DXY

Note: The skewed-t GARCH model is described as follows:

ri,t= μi+ εi,t,

21 hi,t= ωi+ βihi,t−1+ αiεi,t−12 ,

εi,t|ℱt −1 = hi,tzi,t , zi,t~skewed − t zi ηi, ϕi

Then the standardized GARCH innovations for each pair of underlying assets are εi,t hi,t, for 𝑖 ∈ 1,2 and 𝑡 ∈ 1, … , 𝑇 .

We observe that there exists strong positive dependence between the innovations of

first two pairs of assets, particularly in the tails. On the other hand, the innovations of

last two pairs of underlying assets are quite irrelevant and scattered all over the figure.

The dependence structures are dissimilar among these four pairs of assets.

The following Table 6 reports the maximum likelihood estimation results of the

copula-based GARCH model. The estimates of parameters for marginal skewed-t

GARCH process are presented along with the P-values in parentheses in the panel A,

where 0.0000 indicates that the P-value is less than 0.00005.

The value of ω, α and β are all nonnegative that ensure the conditional variance hi,t is positive, and the sum of α and β is close to one for all pairs of assets, which

implies the shocks between the underlying assets have high persistence in volatility and

stationary process. For the estimation of skewed-t distribution, the kurtosis parameter η

and the asymmetry parameter φ show that the conditional process of all assets is

fat-tailed and asymmetric, and this is consistence with previous studies.

The panel B of Table 6 reports the estimates of parameters for different types of

copula functions. All of these estimates are significant under 5% level, except for the

degrees of freedom ν of the last three pairs of Student’s t copulas.

22

Table 6: Copula-based GARCH Model Estimations Asset

Panel A: Estimates of marginal process

ω × 105 0.0179 0.0187 0.0115 0.0029 0.0100 0.0231 0.0030 0.0025

Panel B: Estimates of dependence process

Gaussian ρ 0.9842 0.5146 0.2801 0.0777

Note: The values in parentheses are P-values, where 0.0000 indicates that the value is less than 0.00005.

23

We compare the model goodness-of-fit through the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S)

test and Anderson-Darling (A-D) test along with the P-values in parentheses in Panel A

and B of Table 7. The log-likelihood estimator and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)

of the above copula estimates are also reported in the Panel C and D of Table 7. The

lower values of the K-S test statistics, A-D test statistics and AIC information criterion

represent better goodness-of-fit. On the contrary, the larger of log-likelihood estimates

indicate better fit.

According to both of the K-S test and A-D test, the first pair of assets, which

components are MSCI Pacific and MSCI Far East Index, has the largest P-value that

means the best model fit under the Gumbel copula function. The Frank copula is the

most ideal model for the second pair of assets, which components are MSCI Energy and

MSCI Bank Index. Although the P-values of these five dependence structures are not

significant enough for the third and fourth pair of assets, the Frank copula is still the

model that relatively describes the dependence structure best based on the empirical

distribution under the K-S and A-D test statistics.

Nevertheless, the inferred conclusion from log-likelihood estimator and AIC

information criterion indicates that the Student’s t is the best dependence structure for

all of these four pairs of asset returns, which obviously contradicted to our above

induction by the K-S and A-D tests. We still choose to apply the K-S and A-D test as our

24

basis to the following bivariate option pricing comparison.

Table 7: Goodness-of-fit test to Copula-based GARCH Models Asset Panel A: Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test

Gaussian 0.0316 0.0597 0.0886 0.1297

Gaussian 1.4626 9.0281 19.2397 43.9457

(0.1865) (0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000)

Student’s t 1.4293 8.3982 18.8446 43.9345

(0.1951) (0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000)

Gumbel 1.2187 10.7238 21.6726 44.4410

(0.2599) (0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000)

Clayton 4.9203 15.9543 26.2062 46.3411

(0.0029) (0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000)

Frank 2.3892 8.0226 17.7837 42.2574

(0.0566) (0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000)

Panel C: Maximum Likelihood Estimation

Gaussian 2958.28 258.44 67.11 4.89

25

Student’s t 2999.23 268.76 68.08 13.49

Gumbel 2940.42 238.37 52.00 8.17

Clayton 2322.66 187.30 52.07 5.52

Frank 2854.21 244.85 62.38 5.30

Panel D: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)

Gaussian -5914.57 -514.89 -132.23 -7.77

Student’s t -5996.46 -535.52 -134.16 -24.98

Gumbel -5878.84 -474.74 -102.00 -14.33

Clayton -4643.33 -372.59 -102.14 -9.03

Frank -5706.42 -487.69 -122.76 -8.60

Note: The test statistics of K-S test and A-D test are described as follows:

DKS= max

t FE xt − FH(xt) DAD = F[FE x −FH x ]2

H x [1−FH x ]

x dFH x .

The copula estimates in Table 5.1 are implemented in the hypothetical cumulative distribution FH and the empirical cumulative distribution FE is defined as

FE(x) =1

T Tt=1 Nj=1I(xj,t≤ xj uj∙T )

where I(∙) is the indicator function, u is a vector of marginal probabilities, and xj uj∙T is the uj∙ T th order statistic. Besides, the values in parentheses are P-values, where 0.0000 indicates that the value is less than 0.00005.

After we derive all desired parameter estimates, we simulate the asset return

process that given the parameters of skewed-t GARCH model and copula functions.

Especially we apply the parameter estimates of each marginal skew-t GARCH process

with initial conditional volatility hi,0 equals the long-term variance level ωi 1 − αi− βi . The estimates of Gaussian, Student’s t, Gumbel, Clayton and Frank

copula functions are also implemented to simulate different types of dependence

26

structure. To ensure the convergence of simulated option prices, we simulate 10,000

times and assume that the initial underlying asset return equals one for each return

process.

The following Figure 2 reports the simulation results of digital option pricing of

MSCI Pacific Index and MSCI Far East Index with different strike prices K from 0.80 to

1.20 and different time-to-maturity T from one to six months. We also fix the strike

price K to divide them into three groups of in-the-money (ITM), at-the-money (ATM)

and out-of-the-money (OTM) respectively in Figure 3.

The differences of digital option price between each type of dependence structure

tend to become wider when the maturity increases and the initial bivariate option prices

are around at-the-money. However, the tendency of price change is not very obvious,

and the same situation happens both for the spread options and rainbow options

displayed in Figure 4 to 6.

In order to confirm whether the differences among these bivariate option prices are

significant or not, we perform a paired t-test of the null hypothesis that the 10,000 times

simulated asset returns in the difference between each pairs of dependence structures are

a random sample from a normal distribution with mean zero and unknown variance,

against the alternative that the mean is not zero.

27

Figure 1:Digital Option Pricing Result Under Different Copulas vs. Different Strike Prices - Pair 1- MSCI Pacific Index and MSCI Far East Index

A: 1 Month Maturity B: 2 Month Maturity

C: 3 Month Maturity D: 4 Month Maturity

E: 5 Month Maturity F: 6 Month Maturity

Note: The payoff function of digital option is I(X1> 𝐾 , X2> 𝐾), where I(∙) is the indicator function that equals to one if the statement in parentheses holds and zero otherwise. We assume that the number of trading days for a month is twenty days.

0.00

0.80 0.84 0.88 0.92 0.96 1.00 1.04 1.08 1.12 1.16 1.20

0.00

0.80 0.84 0.88 0.92 0.96 1.00 1.04 1.08 1.12 1.16 1.20

0.00

0.80 0.84 0.88 0.92 0.96 1.00 1.04 1.08 1.12 1.16 1.20

0.00

0.80 0.84 0.88 0.92 0.96 1.00 1.04 1.08 1.12 1.16 1.20

0.00

0.80 0.84 0.88 0.92 0.96 1.00 1.04 1.08 1.12 1.16 1.20

0.00

0.80 0.84 0.88 0.92 0.96 1.00 1.04 1.08 1.12 1.16 1.20

28

Figure 2: Digital Option Price Result Under Different Copulas vs. Different Time to Maturities - Pair 1- MSCI Pacific Index and MSCI Far East Index

ITM (𝐾 = 0.9) ATM (𝐾 = 1) OTM (𝐾 = 1.1)

Note: ITM, ATM and OTM represent that the digital option is in-the-money, at-the-money and out-of-the-money respectively. Since both the underlying asset returns are set to start at the same value 1 in the simulation process, ATM indicates that 𝐾 equals to 1, ITM indicates that K is less than 1 and OTM indicates that K is larger than 1.

Figure 3: Spread Option Pricing Result Under Different Copulas vs. Different Strike Prices - Pair 1- MSCI Pacific Index and MSCI Far East Index

A: 1 Month Maturity B: 2 Month Maturity

C: 3 Month Maturity D: 4 Month Maturity

0.8

0.80 0.84 0.88 0.92 0.96 1.00 1.04 1.08 1.12 1.16 1.20

0.00

0.80 0.84 0.88 0.92 0.96 1.00 1.04 1.08 1.12 1.16 1.20

0.00

0.80 0.84 0.88 0.92 0.96 1.00 1.04 1.08 1.12 1.16 1.20

0.00

0.80 0.84 0.88 0.92 0.96 1.00 1.04 1.08 1.12 1.16 1.20

29

E: 5 Month Maturity F: 6 Month Maturity

Note: The payoff function of spread option is denoted by max⁡(X1− X2− K , 0). We assume that the number of trading days for a month is twenty days.

Figure 4: Spread Option Price Result Under Different Copulas vs. Different Time to Maturities - Pair 1- MSCI Pacific Index and MSCI Far East Index

ITM (𝐾 = −0.1) ATM (𝐾 = 0) OTM (𝐾 = 0.1)

Figure 5: Rainbow Option Pricing Result Under Different Copulas vs. Different Strike Prices - Pair 1- MSCI Pacific Index and MSCI Far East Index

A: 1 Month Maturity B: 2 Month Maturity

0.00

0.80 0.84 0.88 0.92 0.96 1.00 1.04 1.08 1.12 1.16 1.20

0.00

0.80 0.84 0.88 0.92 0.96 1.00 1.04 1.08 1.12 1.16 1.20

0.09

0.80 0.84 0.88 0.92 0.96 1.00 1.04 1.08 1.12 1.16 1.20

0.00

0.80 0.84 0.88 0.92 0.96 1.00 1.04 1.08 1.12 1.16 1.20

30

C: 3 Month Maturity D: 4 Month Maturity

E: 5 Month Maturity F: 6 Month Maturity

Note: The payoff function of rainbow option is max max⁡(X1 , X2 − K, 0]. We assume that the number of trading days for a month is twenty days.

Figure 6: Rainbow Option Price Result Under Different Copulas vs. Different Time to Maturities - Pair 1- MSCI Pacific Index and MSCI Far East Index

ITM (𝐾 = 0.9) ATM (𝐾 = 1) OTM (𝐾 = 1.1)

0.80 0.84 0.88 0.92 0.96 1.00 1.04 1.08 1.12 1.16 1.20

0.00

0.80 0.84 0.88 0.92 0.96 1.00 1.04 1.08 1.12 1.16 1.20

0.00

0.80 0.84 0.88 0.92 0.96 1.00 1.04 1.08 1.12 1.16 1.20

0.00

0.80 0.84 0.88 0.92 0.96 1.00 1.04 1.08 1.12 1.16 1.20

0.10

31

dependence structure between the returns of MSCI Pacific and MSCI Far East Index as

our basis model for the comparison.

In the scenario of one month time-to-maturity in Table 8, the difference between

each pairs of dependence structures are significant under 5% level, except that the

digital and rainbow option prices between Gumbel copula and Gaussian copula are not.

However, the price differences among each pairs of dependence structure become more

significant except for the rainbow option price between Gumbel copula and Frank

copula in the scenario of six months time-to-maturity. The results of paired t-test

support our previous observation that the differences between the bivariate options

prices are more significant as the time-to-maturity increases.

Table 8: T test for the distance between the ATM (K=1) option prices of different dependence structures with 1 month time-to-maturity - Pair 1- MSCI Pacific Index and MSCI Far East Index

Panel 1: Digital Option

Student’s t Clayton Gumbel Frank

Gaussian -0.0009 0.0267 0.0014 0.0138

(0.0833) (0.0000) (0.1221) (0.0000)

Student’s t 0.0276 0.0023 0.0147

(0.0000) (0.0116) (0.0000)

Clayton -0.0253 -0.0129

(0.0000) (0.0000)

Gumbel 0.0124

(0.0000)

32 Panel 2: Spread Option

Student t Clayton Gumbel Frank

Gaussian 0.0001 -0.0018 -0.0003 -0.0009

(0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000)

Student’s t -0.0019 -0.0003 -0.0009

(0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000)

Clayton 0.0016 0.0010

(0.0000) (0.0000)

Gumbel -0.0006

(0.0000) Panel 3: Rainbow Option

Student t Clayton Gumbel Frank

Gaussian 0.0000 -0.0014 0.0000 -0.0002

(0.0000) (0.0000) (0.4577) (0.0000)

Student’s t -0.0014 0.0000 -0.0002

(0.0000) (0.0001) (0.0000)

Clayton 0.0014 0.0012

(0.0000) (0.0000)

Gumbel -0.0002

(0.0000)

Note: The table reports the distance between the ATM (K=1) bivariate option prices of different dependence structures with 1 months time-to-maturity for the first pair of assets returns, which components are MSCI Pacific and MSCI Far East Index. The values in parentheses are p-values under the paired t tests.

Table 9: T test for the distance between the ATM (K=1) option prices of different dependence structures with 6 months time-to-maturity - Pair 1- MSCI Pacific Index and MSCI Far East Index

Panel 1: Digital Option

Student’s t Clayton Gumbel Frank

Gaussian -0.0014 0.0352 0.0048 0.0333

(0.0163) (0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000)

33

Student’s t 0.0366 0.0062 0.0347

(0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000)

Clayton -0.0304 -0.0019

(0.0000) (0.4016)

Gumbel 0.0285

(0.0000) Panel 2: Spread Option

Student t Clayton Gumbel Frank

Gaussian 0.0002 -0.0051 -0.0007 -0.0019

(0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000)

Student’s t -0.0053 -0.0009 -0.0021

(0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000)

Clayton 0.0044 0.0031

(0.0000) (0.0000)

Gumbel -0.0012

(0.0000) Panel 3: Rainbow Option

Student t Clayton Gumbel Frank

Gaussian 0.0001 -0.0035 -0.0001 -0.0002

(0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0009)

Student’s t -0.0036 -0.0002 -0.0003

(0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000)

Clayton 0.0033 0.0033

(0.0000) (0.0000)

Gumbel -0.0001

(0.2549) Note: The table reports the distance between the ATM (K=1) bivariate option prices of different dependence structures with 6 months time-to-maturity for the first pair of assets returns, which components are MSCI Pacific and MSCI Far East Index. The values in parentheses are p-values under the paired t tests.

34

We also compare the options price distance with different strike prices at maturity

in Table 10 and 11. The significance of option price distance decreases when the strike

price is set to be in-the-money or out-of-the-money, expect for the rainbow options. The

differences of rainbow option prices among these copulas are almost all significant

under 5% level, which represents that the option payoff functions also determine the

importance of dependence structure of underlying asset returns.

Hence, we can prove the hypothesis that the differences of bivariate option prices

under distinct dependence structures are more significant when the option is

at-the-money. Besides, the option payoff function is also a key factor to affect the

importance of dependence structure selection.

Table 10: T test for the distance between the ITM (K=0.9) option prices of different dependence structures with 6 months time-to-maturity - Pair 1- MSCI Pacific Index and MSCI Far East Index

Panel 1: Digital Option

Student’s t Clayton Gumbel Frank

Gaussian 0.0001 0.0039 0.0014 0.0092

(0.7815) (0.0002) (0.0433) (0.0000)

Student’s t 0.0038 0.0013 0.0091

(0.0005) (0.0741) (0.0000)

Clayton -0.0025 0.0053

(0.0433) (0.0003)

Gumbel 0.0078

(0.0000) Panel 2: Spread Option

35

Student t Clayton Gumbel Frank

Gaussian 0.0000 0.0001 -0.0001 0.0032

(0.3348) (0.7802) (0.1778) (0.0000)

Student’s t 0.0001 -0.0001 0.0032

(0.7284) (0.3229) (0.0000)

Clayton -0.0001 0.0032

(0.5916) (0.0000)

Gumbel 0.0033

(0.0000) Panel 3: Rainbow Option

Student t Clayton Gumbel Frank

Gaussian 0.0002 -0.0050 -0.0006 -0.0015

(0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000)

Student’s t -0.0052 -0.0008 -0.0017

(0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000)

Clayton 0.0044 0.0035

(0.0000) (0.0000)

Gumbel -0.0010

(0.0000) Note: The table reports the distance between the ITM (K=0.9) bivariate option prices of different dependence structures with 6 months time-to-maturity for the first pair of assets returns, which components are MSCI Pacific and MSCI Far East Index. The values in parentheses are p-values under the paired t tests.

Table 11: T test for the distance between the OTM (K=1.1) option prices of different dependence structures with 6 months time-to-maturity - Pair 1- MSCI Pacific Index and MSCI Far East Index

Panel 1: Digital Option

Student’s t Clayton Gumbel Frank

Gaussian -0.0005 0.0151 -0.0009 0.0116

(0.0588) (0.0000) (0.0495) (0.0000)

Student’s t 0.0156 -0.0004 0.0121

36

(0.0000) (0.3173) (0.0000)

Clayton -0.0160 -0.0035

(0.0000) (0.0001)

Gumbel 0.0125

(0.0000) Panel 2: Spread Option

Student t Clayton Gumbel Frank

Gaussian 0.0000 -0.0001 0.0000 0.0000

(1.0000) (0.0010) (1.0000) (0.0971)

Student’s t -0.0001 0.0000 0.0000

(0.0010) (1.0000) (0.0971)

Clayton 0.0001 0.0001

(0.0010) (0.0032)

Gumbel 0.0000

(0.0971) Panel 3: Rainbow Option

Student t Clayton Gumbel Frank

Gaussian 0.0000 -0.0005 0.0000 0.0001

(0.0008) (0.0000) (0.3102) (0.0000)

Student’s t -0.0005 0.0000 0.0001

(0.0000) (0.6609) (0.0001)

Clayton 0.0005 0.0007

(0.0000) (0.0000)

Gumbel 0.0001

(0.0001) Note: The table reports the distance between the OTM (K=1.1) bivariate option prices of different dependence structures with 6 months time-to-maturity for the first pair of assets returns, which components are MSCI Pacific and MSCI Far East Index. The values in parentheses are p-values under the paired t tests.

37

The simulation results for the last three pairs of underlying assets are shown in the

Appendix A to C. The Frank copula is the best fit model based on our previous K-D test

and A-D test, which has neither lower nor upper tail dependency. After we compare the

distance of simulated bivariate option prices between Frank copula and other four types

of copula functions by paired t-test, the results show that the option price distinguishes

between copulas are not very significant in Table 12. Especially for the fourth pair of

asset returns that composed by S&P 500 Index and DXY currency Index, the P-values

from the paired t tests in parentheses are the highest in these four pairs of assets.

From the linear correlation estimates and the scatter plotted in Figure 1, we can

observe that the dependence is weakest for the fourth pair. Accordingly, the strength of

dependency to the underlying assets also determines the impact to bivariate option

prices. As the dependency is weaker, the distance between option prices are less

significant.

Table 12: T test for the distance between the ATM (K=1) option prices of different dependence structures with 6 months time-to-maturity – Pair 1 to 4

Panel 1: Digital Option

Pair 1 Pair 2 Pair 3 Pair 4

Gumbel Frank Frank Frank

Gaussian 0.0048 0.0021 -0.0003 -0.0004

(0.0000) (0.1937) (0.2569) (0.5164)

Student’s t 0.0062 0.0040 -0.0004 -0.0004

(0.0000) (0.0231) (0.2059) (0.7127)

38

Panel 2: Spread Option

Pair 1 Pair 2 Pair 3 Pair 4

Panel 3: Rainbow Option

Pair 1 Pair 2 Pair 3 Pair 4 copula functions, where the Gumbel copula is the best fit model for the first pair of assets, and the Frank copula are for the last three pairs. The numbers in parentheses are the p-values for the t tests.

39

Summarizing, the time-to-maturity of options, the pre-determined strike prices, the

type of payoff functions, and the dependency between underlying asset returns all have

impact to the simulated option prices. When the time-to-maturity gets longer, the initial

option price is at-the-money, the option payoff function is rainbow, and the dependency

of asset returns is stronger, the price distance between different dependence structures

would become more significant according to the t-test.

40 6.

C

ONCLUSION

We discuss the bivariate options pricing by using the copula-based GARCH model.

Since most financial asset returns are actually non-Gaussian, that is skewed, leptokurtic,

and asymmetrically dependent, we consider that the copula-based GARCH model

would be better than the traditional linear correlation and Gaussian assumptions to price

multivariate claims.

According to the inference for the margins or IFM method proposed by Joe and Xu

(1996), we propose to select the skewed-t GARCH model to describe the marginal

distribution, and then the Gaussian, Student’s t, Gumbel, Clayton and Frank copula

functions are implemented to capture the dependence structure of underlying asset

returns. We process the goodness-of-fit tests such as Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and

Anderson-Darling test as our measurement to choose the best dependence structure as

our basis model, and then simulate the bivariate options prices with different payoff

structures.

The empirical test is based on four pairs of assets returns that composed by equity,

commodity and foreign exchange indices. The Gumbel copula that has upper tail

dependency is best fit for the pair of MSCI Pacific and MSCI Far East Index; the Frank

copula is relatively fit for the pairs of MSCI World Energy Index and MSCI World Bank

Index, Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index and MSCI Latin America Index, and S&P 500

41

Index and DXY currency Index, which means the dependence structure of these three

pairs has neither lower nor upper tail dependency.

The empirical results also show that as the time-to-maturity of options gets longer,

the initial option price is near at-the-money, and the dependency of asset returns is

stronger, the price distance between different dependence structures would tend to

become more significant under the paired t-test. Besides, we use digital, spread and

rainbow options as our payoff structures, and observe that the rainbow options are most

sensitive to the dependence structure. Hence, the dependence structure selection would

become more important when we are dealing the pricing issue of long maturity, high

dependency, and at-the-money bivariate options.

42 7.

R

EFERENCE

Anderson, T.W. and D.A. Darling, 1952, Asymptotic theory of certain “goodness of fit”

criteria based on stochastic processes, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 23 (2), pp.

193 – 212.

Black, F., and M. S. Scholes, 1973, The pricing of options and corporate liabilities,

Journal of Political Economics, 81, 637 – 654.

Bauwens, L., and S. Laurent, 2002, A new class of multivariate skew densities, with

application to GARCH mode, Working Paper, CORE, Universite´ de Lie`ge and

Universite´ Catholique de Louvain.

Bollerslev, T., 1986, Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, Journal

of Econometrics, 31, 307 – 327.

Bollerslev, T., 1990, Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: a

multivariate generalized ARCH model, Review of Economics and Statistics 72,

498 – 505.

Bollerslev, T., R. F. Engle and J. M. Wooldridge, 1988, A Capital Asset Pricing Model

with Time-varying Covariances, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 96, No. 11,

116 – 131.

Boyer, B. H., M. S. Gibson, and M. Loretan, 1999, Pitfalls in tests for changes in

correlations, International Finance Discussion Papers, No.597, Board of Governors

43 of the Federal Reserve System.

Cherubini, U., Luciano, E., and Vecchiato, W., 2004, Copula Methods in Finance, Wiley

Finance: Chichester.

Duan, J. C., 1995, The GARCH Option Pricing Model, Mathematical Finance, Vol. 5,

No. 1, 13 – 32.

Embrechts, P., A. J. McNeil, and D. Straumann, 2002, Correlation and dependence in

risk management: properties and pitfalls, in M. A. H. Dempster (ed.), Risk

Management: Value at Risk and Beyond, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,

England, pp. 176 – 223.

Engle, R., 2002, Dynamic conditional correlation - a simple class of multivariate

GARCH models, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20, 339 – 350.

Engle, R., and K. Sheppard, 2001, Theoretical and Empirical properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH, NBER Working Paper 8554.

Engle, R. F., and K. F. Kroner, 1995, Multivariate simultaneous generalized ARCH,

Econometric Theory, 11, 122 – 150.

Gänssler, P., and W. Stute, 1987, Seminar on Empirical Processes, DMV Seminar 9,

Birkhäuser, Basel, Switzerland.

Goorbergh, R. W. J. van der, C. Genest, and B. J. M. Werker, 2005, Multivariate option

pricing using dynamic copula models, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 37,

44 101 – 114.

Hansen, B. E., 1994, Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation, International

Economic Review, Vol. 35, No. 3, 705 – 730.

Heston, S. L., and S. Nandi, 2000, A Closed-Form GARCH Option Valuation Model,

The Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 13, No. 3, 585 – 625.

Hsu, C. C., C. P. Tseng, and Y. H. Wang, 2008, Dynamic hedging with futures: A

copula-based GARCH model, The Journal of Futures Markets, Vol. 28, No. 11,

1095 – 1116.

Hull, J. and A. White, 1987, The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic

Volatilities, Journal of Finance, 42, 281 – 300.

Joe, H., 1997, Multivariate Models and Dependence Concepts, Chapman and Hall,

London.

Joe, H., and J. J. Xu, 1996. The estimation method of inference functions for margins

for multivariate models, Technical Report 166, Department of Statistics, University

of British Columbia.

Johnson, H., 1987, Options on the maximum or the minimum of several assets, Journal

of Financial Quantitative Analysis, 22, 277 – 283.

Jondeau, E., and M. Rockinger, 2006, The Copula-GARCH model of conditional

dependencies: An international stock market application, Journal of International

45 Money and Finance, 25, 827 – 853.

Kole, E., K. Koedijk, and M. Verbeek, 2007, Selecting copulas for risk management,

Journal of Banking & Finance, 31, 2405 – 2423.

Margrabe, W., 1978, The Value of an Option to Exchange One Asset for Another,

Margrabe, W., 1978, The Value of an Option to Exchange One Asset for Another,

相關文件