Foresight in Practice

There are two aspects of foresight that should be emphasized. They are “Process”

and “Starting Point”. The process of foresight is based on the methods and approaches in foresight, such as trend extrapolation, scenarios, Delphi, focus groups, roadmapping and so on (Andersen & Borup, 2006). However, the process of foresight is not just a set of techniques. It involves consultative procedures to ensure feedback to and from relevant actors. Additionally, the starting point of foresight is referred to which of these futures we will arrive at depends in part on the decisions we take now (Martin, 1995).

The first step of typical foresight project was scoping, and it contained qualitative modeling of policy response impact and development of quantitative model and analysis. Then the project would conduct analysis and implications for policy before action. Most importantly, feedback was also necessary in this process, refer to Figure 2- 1.

Figure 2- 1 Typical foresight project structure

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Foresight in UK

In 1993 the Office of Science and Technology (OST) White Paper had announced that “Realising our potential, reaffirmed the need for priority setting to make the UK science base more responsive to industry needs. Therefore, the first holistic overview of S&T priorities in the UK was attempted, embarking on the UK Technology Foresight Programme(Brandes, 2009). The first Technology Foresight Programm (TFP) was employed from 1993 to 1999, and the aims of it were 1) to increase UK competitiveness; 2) to create partnerships and long-term networks; 3) to focus attention on market opportunities; 4) to ensure more effective use of the science base(Martin, 1995). However, the most important object was constructing the basic structure among industry, school and governmental department. The programme was directed by a steering group of senior industrialists, scientists and government official.

Under it, 15 panels made up of industrialists, scientists and other experts were responsible for different sectors and they would draw upon the advice of large pools of experts(Martin, 1995).

The second foresight period of TFP from 1999 to 2004, was called” Focus on Foresight”. It was the main foresight phase. Panels began by holding discussions to set the scene in their sector and to identify strengths and weaknesses. They also consulted with their pool of experts, and engaged in wider consultation through regional and topical workshops. In addition, a major Delphi survey was carried out with questionnaires being sent to some 7000 experts. All these information sources were drawn upon by panels in identifying technological priorities for their sector(Martin & Johnston, 1999). In this phase of TFP, it took a wider aim to exploit the opportunities that arose from the interaction of innovations in S&T with wider social and market trends. Since the goals of the Focus on Foresight were too obscure and nothing new, the panels decided to focus the regine on the “technology foresight”

while the former two emphasized on every sectors of the country.

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The third TFP was conducted from 2002 and will end in 2055. The third phase refocused on S&T with projects relating either to a key issue where science holds the promise of solutions; or an aspect of S&T that is likely to have wider implications in the future. Additionally, the TFP also set “Horizon Scanning Center” to hadle smaller projects and the entire policy spectrum (social, technical, economic, environmental and political policy), refer toTable 2- 2 .

Table 2- 2 History of TFP

Items The First TFP The Second TFP The Third TFP

Period of Time 1993-1999 1999-2004 2002-2055

Reason of

Categories Every industry and public policy

Structure Sector panels Sector panels and

task forces Project

Source: Compiled by the authority.

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The foresight process in UK would begin with identifying the need and objectives and gathering information. Hence, the trend of the future would be appeared. The government should follow the trend to collecting “insight” and explore relevance to frame the future options, then, set S&T priorities(Woodroof, 2010). The Horizon Scanning Center took the horizon scanning as “exploring possibilities for the future to ensure that strategies are robust” instead of just “predicting the future”. The UK Foresight Programme proved to be extremely influential, since it represented an exercise that involved priority-setting and networking, and tailored Technology Foresight methods to fit the UK innovation system (Georghiou, Harper, Keenan, Miles and Popper, 2008).

Foresight in America

The government of the United States does not do foresight. That is to say, the national-level technology foresight studies have not been a prominent in the science and technology landscape of the USA(L. Georghiou, 2008). However, there still exist some “foresight-like” activities in the USA, some reports generated by the President’s Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) and the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment (OTA). The OTA has executed a rich set of technology assessments to inform national policy deliberations. However, it takes a couple of years for the formulation and review processes, so the OTA has been deemed modest for the poor timing fit. What’s more, a strong suspicion holds that the right thing, conservative crew who took control of Congress in the mid-1990s felt that OTA was slanted against their interest. On the other hand, the critical technology reports which generated by the OSTP rely exclusively on expertise.

Because the government-sponsored foresight-like activities are affected by the multiple agencies, the private sectors have also employed foresight method for business strategic planning and to set directions for long-term technology

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investment(L. Georghiou, 2008). Hence, all the players who interest in the foresight field have made significant contributions to develop and improve the research method and tool for the foresight activities.

There are three important foresight methods developed in the USA, scenarios, technology intelligence (scanning and scouting), and technology roadmapping.

There are varieties of combinations of foresight method that has been used all over the world. The foresight methods could be divided by type of techniques, they are qualitative, quantitative, and semi-quantitative method. Georghiou et al. (2008) had presented some 33 methods often used in foresight in terms of the typology outlined in Table 2-3.

Table 2-3 Classification of Foresight Methods by Type of Technique

Classification Qualitative Quantitative Semi-quantitative

Introduction of methods

Methods which provid meaning to events and perceptions.

Methods which measure variables and applying statistical analyses, using or generating reliable and valid data.

Methods that apply mathematical

1. Backcasting 20. Benchmarking 26.Cross-impact/Structual

Analysis

2. Brainstorming 21. Bibliometrics 27. Delphi

3. Citizens Panels 22. Indicators/Time Series Analysis 28. Key/Critical technologies 4. Conferences/Workshops 23. Modelling 29. Multi-criteria analysis 5. Essays/Scenario Writing 24. Patent Analysis 30. Polling/ Voting

6. Expert Panels 25. Trend Expolation/Impact Analysis 31. Quantitative scenarios/SMIC

7. Genius Forecasting 32. Roadmapping

8. Interviews 33. Stakeholder Analysis/

MACTOR

15 9. Literature Review

10. Morphhological Analysis

11. Relevance Trees/Logic Charts

12. Role play/Acting 13. Scanning

14. Scenario/Scenario workshops 15. Science Fictioning

16. Simulation Gaming 17. Surveys

18. SWOT analysis

19. Weak Signals/Wild Cards

Source: Georghiou, Harper, Keenan, Miles and Popper( 2008).