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Some limitations of this research are listed as follows:
1. Winters multiplicative seasonal trend model provides a good starting point, nevertheless, we perform the study on only two products in Taiwan. Therefore, we cannot conclude that this method will always provide better accuracy for forecasting other seasonal products. This would be an extension of our work submitted as suggested future research.
2. The data from surveys may be flawed. The respondents may not send their survey forms back or send back but not on a timely basis, causing the market sales data to be unreliable.
3. One of the important assumptions about forecasting methods used in this research is that a certain reasonable linkage that existed in the past will remain in the future (Herbig, et al, 1994).
It means many forecasters assume that the behavior of the past is a good indication of the future.
However, the future market sales involves a lot of uncertainties that are unpredictable such as changes in political environment, economical environment , climate, macro-economics,
consumer behavior, market competition, price, and market strategies that may affect the accuracy of the forecast.
5.4 Future Research
To improve the forecasting accuracy, we suggest some future studies as follows:
1. Try to experiment the same data with other forecasting methods, such as expert systems, fuzzy logic, regression analysis, Box—Jenkins time series model and neural networks, etc.
2. Try to use the same models in this study to forecast on some other industrial sectors, such as beverage, automobiles, gasoline, electricity, air travel, restaurant accommodations, air travel, and beverage.
3. Conduct the same methods in this study with different error measures such as MPE (Mean Percent Error), MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error), etc..
4. Try to combine the forecasts performed from several independent forecasters.
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5. Experiment with different combining methods. Try to combine forecasts derived from methods that differ substantially and draw from different sources of information in order to improve forecasting accuracy.
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Winter’s Report (Validation, 48 months) for Ice Cream Forecast Method: Winter’s with multiplicative seasonal trend adjustment
Seasonal - Trend Report
Page/Date/Time 1 5/15/2011 11:31:29 PM
Database C:\USERS\JP1219\DOCUMENTS\NCSS\NCSS 2007\DATA\ICECREAM.S0 Title MONTHLY MARKET SALES---ICECREAM IN TAIWAN
Forecast Summary Section Log10 (Variable) Sales Number of Rows 48
Mean 1905.583
Pseudo R-Squared 0.887048 Mean Square Error 106207.5 Mean |Error| 216.5652 Mean |Percent Error| 10.45767
Forecast Method Winter's with multiplicative seasonal adjustment.
Search Iterations 167
Search Criterion Mean Square Error
Alpha 0.5
Beta 0
Gamma 0
Intercept (A) 3.27012
Slope (B) -1.260789E-03
Season 1 Factor 0.9444247 Season 2 Factor 0.9474447 Season 3 Factor 0.9818625 Season 4 Factor 1.004788 Season 5 Factor 1.03204 Season 6 Factor 1.061784 Season 7 Factor 1.099116 Season 8 Factor 1.089718 Season 9 Factor 1.047505 Season 10 Factor 0.9816289 Season 11 Factor 0.9110703 Season 12 Factor 0.8986188 Forecast and Residuals Plots
500.0 1500.0 2500.0 3500.0 4500.0
2005.9 2007.1 2008.4 2009.6 2010.9
Sales Forecast Plot
Time
Sales
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Seasonal - Trend Report Page/Date/Time 2 5/15/2011 11:31:29 PM
Database C:\USERS\JP1219\DOCUMENTS\NCSS\NCSS 2007\DATA\ICECREAM.S0 Title MONTHLY MARKET SALES---ICECREAM IN TAIWAN
Forecasts Section
Row Forecast Actual
No. Date Sales Sales Residuals
1 2006 1 1242.734 1586 343.2662
2 2006 2 1432.882 1137 -295.882
3 2006 3 1650.359 1471 -179.3592
4 2006 4 1844.471 2302 457.5287
5 2006 5 2526.791 2651 124.2091
6 2006 6 3236.049 2822 -414.0494
7 2006 7 3992.717 3377 -615.7171
8 2006 8 3412.266 3305 -107.2655
9 2006 9 2444.522 2215 -229.5221
10 2006 10 1424.998 1807 382.0023
11 2006 11 941.5372 971 29.46283
12 2006 12 868.2816 881 12.71842
13 2007 1 1231.921 1179 -52.92105
14 2007 2 1229.437 1346 116.5634
15 2007 3 1663.764 1637 -26.76422
16 2007 4 1956.274 1717 -239.274
17 2007 5 2240.271 2440 199.7294
18 2007 6 2914.731 3173 258.2688
19 2007 7 4018.957 3743 -275.9573
20 2007 8 3602.52 3434 -168.52
21 2007 9 2555.711 2258 -297.7107
22 2007 10 1468.176 1531 62.82398
23 2007 11 883.9935 949 65.00647
24 2007 12 832.2333 903 70.76675
25 2008 1 1220.491 958 -262.4913
26 2008 2 1102.7 1097 -5.69981
27 2008 3 1414.413 1473 58.58673
28 2008 4 1705.652 1522 -183.6525
29 2008 5 1962.618 1704 -258.6176
30 2008 6 2263.763 2255 -8.763535
31 2008 7 2954.817 2657 -297.8171
32 2008 8 2609.806 2460 -149.8065
-1000.0 -375.0 250.0 875.0 1500.0
2005.9 2007.1 2008.4 2009.6 2010.9
Residual Plot of Sales
Time
Residuals of Sales
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Seasonal - Trend Report Page/Date/Time 3 5/15/2011 11:31:29 PM
Database C:\USERS\JP1219\DOCUMENTS\NCSS\NCSS 2007\DATA\ICECREAM.S0 Title MONTHLY MARKET SALES---ICECREAM IN TAIWAN
Forecasts Section
Row Forecast Actual
No. Date Sales Sales Residuals
33 2008 9 1864.651 1728 -136.6507
34 2008 10 1117.35 1177 59.64984
35 2008 11 689.3211 714 24.67889
36 2008 12 639.7789 632 -7.778899
37 2009 1 881.2134 905 23.78662
38 2009 2 910.1361 1038 127.8639
39 2009 3 1244.36 1350 105.6396
40 2009 4 1527.74 1565 37.26005
41 2009 5 1881.396 1903 21.60371
42 2009 6 2344.578 2475 130.4219
43 2009 7 3157.478 4454 1296.522
44 2009 8 3484.256 4005 520.7438
45 2009 9 2708.018 3647 938.982
46 2009 10 1888.497 1359 -529.4974
47 2009 11 940.0931 820 -120.0931
48 2009 12 798.235 735 -63.23501
49 2010 1 1071.611 50 2010 2 1092.778 51 2010 3 1404.994 52 2010 4 1659.212 53 2010 5 2022.697 54 2010 6 2511.14 55 2010 7 3296.294 56 2010 8 3065.983 57 2010 9 2239.691 58 2010 10 1374.872 59 2010 11 815.7147 60 2010 12 742.3581
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Decomposition Report (Validation, 48 months) Ice Cream Forecast Method: Decomposition Seasonal Trend
Time Series Decomposition Report
Page/Date/Time 1 5/13/2011 3:01:31 PM
Database C:\Users\jp1219\Documents\NCSS\NCSS 2007\Data\IceCream.S0
Variable Sales
Title MONTHLY MARKET SALES--IceCream in Taiwan Forecast Summary Section
Forecast 10^[(Mean) x (Trend) x (Cycle) x (Season)]
Variable Sales
Number of Rows 48
Mean 3.224856
Pseudo R-Squared 0.8985508 Forecast Std. Error 308.855 Mean Square Error 95391.411
Trend Equation Trend = (1.013007) + (-0.000675) * (Time Season Number) Number of Seasons 12
First Year 2006
First Season 1
Seasonal Component Ratios
No. Ratio No. Ratio No. Ratio No. Ratio
1 0.946733 2 0.948577 3 0.981609 4 1.004087
5 1.031877 6 1.061734 7 1.099833 8 1.091168
9 1.048965 10 0.983347 11 0.913054 12 0.900578
Forecast and Data Plot
500.0 1500.0 2500.0 3500.0 4500.0
2005.9 2007.4 2008.8 2010.3 2011.8
Sales Chart
Time
Sales
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Time Series Decomposition Report Page/Date/Time 2 5/13/2011 3:01:31 PM
Database C:\Users\jp1219\Documents\NCSS\NCSS 2007\Data\IceCream.S0
Variable Sales
Title MONTHLY MARKET SALES--IceCream in Taiwan Decomposition Ratio Plots
2005.9 2007.4 2008.8 2010.3 2011.8
Trend Ratio Chart
2005.9 2007.4 2008.8 2010.3 2011.8
Cycle Ratio Chart
2005.9 2007.4 2008.8 2010.3 2011.8
Season Ratio Chart
2005.9 2007.4 2008.8 2010.3 2011.8
Error Ratio Chart
Time
Error
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Time Series Decomposition Report Page/Date/Time 3 5/13/2011 3:01:31 PM
Database C:\Users\jp1219\Documents\NCSS\NCSS 2007\Data\IceCream.S0
Variable Sales
Title MONTHLY MARKET SALES--IceCream in Taiwan Forecasts Section
Row Year Forecast Actual Trend Cycle Season Error
No. Season Sales Sales Residual Factor Factor Factor Factor
1 2006 1 1252.73 1586 333.2697 1.0123 1.0023 0.9467 1.0331
2 2006 2 1277.37 1137 -140.3695 1.0117 1.0038 0.9486 0.9837
3 2006 3 1642.504 1471 -171.5037 1.0110 1.0047 0.9816 0.9851
4 2006 4 1934.099 2302 367.9007 1.0103 1.0046 1.0041 1.0230
5 2006 5 2365.452 2651 285.5477 1.0096 1.0042 1.0319 1.0147
6 2006 6 2961.898 2822 -139.8977 1.0090 1.0049 1.0617 0.9939
7 2006 7 3897.027 3377 -520.0268 1.0083 1.0041 1.0998 0.9827
8 2006 8 3630.126 3305 -325.1261 1.0076 1.0040 1.0912 0.9886
9 2006 9 2675.873 2215 -460.873 1.0069 1.0062 1.0490 0.9760
10 2006 10 1620.869 1807 186.1308 1.0063 1.0059 0.9833 1.0147
11 2006 11 942.0839 971 28.9161 1.0056 1.0044 0.9131 1.0044
12 2006 12 859.0311 881 21.96893 1.0049 1.0053 0.9006 1.0037
13 2007 1 1225.034 1179 -46.03437 1.0042 1.0072 0.9467 0.9946
14 2007 2 1249.074 1346 96.92551 1.0036 1.0087 0.9486 1.0105
15 2007 3 1604.868 1637 32.13174 1.0029 1.0097 0.9816 1.0027
16 2007 4 1888.78 1717 -171.7796 1.0022 1.0095 1.0041 0.9874
17 2007 5 2308.51 2440 131.4903 1.0015 1.0092 1.0319 1.0072
18 2007 6 2888.56 3173 284.4402 1.0009 1.0099 1.0617 1.0118
19 2007 7 3812.631 3743 -69.63076 1.0002 1.0095 1.0998 0.9978
20 2007 8 3506.5 3434 -72.49986 0.9995 1.0079 1.0912 0.9974
21 2007 9 2522.786 2258 -264.7858 0.9988 1.0068 1.0490 0.9858
22 2007 10 1531.279 1531 -0.2791941 0.9982 1.0062 0.9833 1.0000
23 2007 11 890.1275 949 58.87253 0.9975 1.0042 0.9131 1.0094
24 2007 12 790.1924 903 112.8076 0.9968 1.0009 0.9006 1.0200
25 2008 1 1082.73 958 -124.7297 0.9961 0.9978 0.9467 0.9825
26 2008 2 1068.622 1097 28.37787 0.9955 0.9946 0.9486 1.0038
27 2008 3 1329.282 1473 143.7183 0.9948 0.9919 0.9816 1.0143
28 2008 4 1532.883 1522 -10.88312 0.9941 0.9896 1.0041 0.9990
29 2008 5 1834.214 1704 -130.2142 0.9934 0.9872 1.0319 0.9902
30 2008 6 2215.919 2255 39.08103 0.9928 0.9842 1.0617 1.0023
31 2008 7 2866.632 2657 -209.6315 0.9921 0.9826 1.0998 0.9905
32 2008 8 2678.669 2460 -218.6687 0.9914 0.9826 1.0912 0.9892
33 2008 9 1961.694 1728 -233.6937 0.9907 0.9825 1.0490 0.9833
34 2008 10 1217.887 1177 -40.88695 0.9901 0.9828 0.9833 0.9952
35 2008 11 736.754 714 -22.75405 0.9894 0.9842 0.9131 0.9952
36 2008 12 678.358 632 -46.35798 0.9887 0.9861 0.9006 0.9891
37 2009 1 970.5469 905 -65.54693 0.9880 0.9902 0.9467 0.9898
38 2009 2 1023.457 1038 14.54307 0.9874 0.9966 0.9486 1.0020
39 2009 3 1370.286 1350 -20.28604 0.9867 1.0043 0.9816 0.9979
40 2009 4 1678.138 1565 -113.1383 0.9860 1.0100 1.0041 0.9906
41 2009 5 2086.167 1903 -183.1672 0.9853 1.0123 1.0319 0.9880
42 2009 6 2636.045 2475 -161.0448 0.9847 1.0147 1.0617 0.9920
43 2009 7 3512.23 4454 941.7696 0.9840 1.0159 1.0998 1.0291
44 2009 8 3276.689 4005 728.3111 0.9833 1.0160 1.0912 1.0248
45 2009 9 2381.017 3647 1265.983 0.9826 1.0159 1.0490 1.0548
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Time Series Decomposition Report Page/Date/Time 4 5/13/2011 3:01:32 PM
Database C:\Users\jp1219\Documents\NCSS\NCSS 2007\Data\IceCream.S0
Variable Sales
Title MONTHLY MARKET SALES--IceCream in Taiwan Forecasts Section
Row Year Forecast Actual Trend Cycle Season Error
No. Season Sales Sales Residual Factor Factor Factor Factor
46 2009 10 1460.412 1359 -101.4123 0.9820 1.0162 0.9833 0.9901
47 2009 11 872.0739 820 -52.07383 0.9813 1.0177 0.9131 0.9909
48 2009 12 801.1042 735 -66.10418 0.9806 1.0196 0.9006 0.9871
49 2010 1 981.4221 0.9799 1.0000 0.9467 1.0000
50 2010 2 989.9675 0.9793 1.0000 0.9486 1.0000
51 2010 3 1252.561 0.9786 1.0000 0.9816 1.0000
52 2010 4 1467.416 0.9779 1.0000 1.0041 1.0000
53 2010 5 1786.271 0.9772 1.0000 1.0319 1.0000
54 2010 6 2206.635 0.9766 1.0000 1.0617 1.0000
55 2010 7 2892.841 0.9759 1.0000 1.0998 1.0000
56 2010 8 2701.978 0.9752 1.0000 1.0912 1.0000
57 2010 9 1980.025 0.9746 1.0000 1.0490 1.0000
58 2010 10 1225.491 0.9739 1.0000 0.9833 1.0000
59 2010 11 733.7712 0.9732 1.0000 0.9131 1.0000
60 2010 12 667.4899 0.9725 1.0000 0.9006 1.0000
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Winter’s Report (Forecast, 60 months) for Ice Cream Forecast Method: Winter’s with multiplicative seasonal trend adjustment
Seasonal - Trend Report Page/Date/Time 1 5/15/2011 11:39:18 PM
Database C:\USERS\JP1219\DOCUMENTS\NCSS\NCSS 2007\DATA\ICECREAM.S0 Title MONTHLY MARKET SALES---ICECREAM IN TAIWAN
Forecast Summary Section Log10(Variable) Sales Number of Rows 60
Mean 1907.217
Pseudo R-Squared 0.889704 Mean Square Error 100919.1 Mean |Error| 223.2138 Mean |Percent Error| 11.22653
Forecast Method Winter's with multiplicative seasonal adjustment.
Search Iterations 176
Search Criterion Mean Square Error
Alpha 0.5
Beta 0
Gamma 0
Intercept (A) 3.298883
Slope (B) -9.053888E-04
Season 1 Factor 0.9336358 Season 2 Factor 0.9422643 Season 3 Factor 0.9883024 Season 4 Factor 1.007955 Season 5 Factor 1.031548 Season 6 Factor 1.05809 Season 7 Factor 1.099702 Season 8 Factor 1.089195 Season 9 Factor 1.049619 Season 10 Factor 0.9880086 Season 11 Factor 0.9136869 Season 12 Factor 0.8979931
Forecast and Residuals Plots
500.0 1500.0 2500.0 3500.0 4500.0
2005.9 2007.4 2008.9 2010.4 2011.9
Sales Forecast Plot
Time
Sales
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Seasonal - Trend Report Page/Date/Time 2 5/15/2011 11:39:18 PM
Database C:\USERS\JP1219\DOCUMENTS\NCSS\NCSS 2007\DATA\ICECREAM.S0 Title MONTHLY MARKET SALES---ICECREAM IN TAIWAN
Forecasts Section
Row Forecast Actual
No. Date Sales Sales Residuals
1 2006 1 1141.22 1586 444.7796
2 2006 2 1435.157 1137 -298.1566
3 2006 3 1808.038 1471 -337.0376
4 2006 4 1885.285 2302 416.7146
5 2006 5 2485.917 2651 165.0826
6 2006 6 3134.856 2822 -312.856
7 2006 7 4064.346 3377 -687.3457
8 2006 8 3417.266 3305 -112.2658
9 2006 9 2496.554 2215 -281.5543
10 2006 10 1487.892 1807 319.108
11 2006 11 937.8013 971 33.19866
12 2006 12 846.5882 881 34.41182
13 2007 1 1127.265 1179 51.7352
14 2007 2 1228.041 1346 117.9586
15 2007 3 1820.302 1637 -183.3016
16 2007 4 1997.809 1717 -280.8089
17 2007 5 2204.002 2440 235.9978
18 2007 6 2824.453 3173 348.5469
19 2007 7 4091.818 3743 -348.8176
20 2007 8 3607.933 3434 -173.9333
21 2007 9 2610.447 2258 -352.4465
22 2007 10 1533.274 1531 -2.273921
23 2007 11 880.7653 949 68.23475
24 2007 12 811.6894 903 91.31062
25 2008 1 1117.096 958 -159.0959
26 2008 2 1100.871 1097 -3.87082
27 2008 3 1544.03 1473 -71.02991
28 2008 4 1740.687 1522 -218.6865
29 2008 5 1931.099 1704 -227.099
30 2008 6 2195.462 2255 59.53773
31 2008 7 3005.954 2657 -348.9541
32 2008 8 2613.534 2460 -153.534
-1000.0 -375.0 250.0 875.0 1500.0
2005.9 2007.4 2008.9 2010.4 2011.9
Residual Plot of Sales
Time
Residuals of Sales
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Seasonal - Trend Report Page/Date/Time 3 5/15/2011 11:39:18 PM
Database C:\USERS\JP1219\DOCUMENTS\NCSS\NCSS 2007\DATA\ICECREAM.S0 Title MONTHLY MARKET SALES---ICECREAM IN TAIWAN
Forecasts Section
Row Forecast Actual
No. Date Sales Sales Residuals
33 2008 9 1903.018 1728 -175.0181
34 2008 10 1165.017 1177 11.98301
35 2008 11 686.9086 714 27.09146
36 2008 12 624.6168 632 7.383211
37 2009 1 809.8107 905 95.18927
38 2009 2 909.4203 1038 128.5797
39 2009 3 1356.912 1350 -6.91211
40 2009 4 1558.833 1565 6.166496
41 2009 5 1851.291 1903 51.7087
42 2009 6 2273.668 2475 201.3322
43 2009 7 3212.855 4454 1241.145
44 2009 8 3488.607 4005 516.3934
45 2009 9 2766.078 3647 880.9222
46 2009 10 1974.475 1359 -615.4746
47 2009 11 936.9445 820 -116.9445
48 2009 12 778.7621 735 -43.76217
49 2010 1 982.3508 742 -240.3508
50 2010 2 906.9282 936 29.07175
51 2010 3 1283.419 1864 580.5806
52 2010 4 1786.146 1959 172.8543
53 2010 5 2226.52 2096 -130.5196
54 2010 6 2626.334 2324 -302.3345
55 2010 7 3351.405 3600 248.5954
56 2010 8 3205.901 3226 20.09929
57 2010 9 2392.863 2603 210.1373
58 2010 10 1573.596 1871 297.4036
59 2010 11 978.0168 964 -14.01678
60 2010 12 861.1707 780 -81.17062
61 2011 1 1067.558 62 2011 2 1136.387 63 2011 3 1599.269 64 2011 4 1848.076 65 2011 5 2199.113 66 2011 6 2674.779 67 2011 7 3639.806 68 2011 8 3357.914 69 2011 9 2494.585 70 2011 10 1572.923 71 2011 11 902.4263 72 2011 12 801.3745
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Winter’s Report (Validation, 48 months) for Fresh Milk Forecast Method: Winter’s with multiplicative seasonal trend adjustment
Seasonal - Trend Report Page/Date/Time 1 6/11/2011 4:52:29 PM
Database C:\Users\jp1219\Documents\NCSS\NCSS 2007\Data\SALES.S0 Title MONTHLY MARKET SALES---FRESH MILK IN TAIWAN Forecast Summary Section
Log10(Variable) Sales Number of Rows 48
Mean 22284.81
Pseudo R-Squared 0.914516 Mean Square Error 790666.8 Mean |Error| 723.2148 Mean |Percent Error| 3.293337
Forecast Method Winter's with multiplicative seasonal adjustment.
Search Iterations 151
Search Criterion Mean Square Error
Alpha 0.8145158
Beta 5.716994E-08
Gamma 2.286691E-03
Intercept (A) 4.380449
Slope (B) 1.021276E-04
Season 1 Factor 0.9797085 Season 2 Factor 0.9726461 Season 3 Factor 0.9911656 Season 4 Factor 0.9972439 Season 5 Factor 1.007274 Season 6 Factor 1.00772 Season 7 Factor 1.015774 Season 8 Factor 1.015128 Season 9 Factor 1.01006 Season 10 Factor 1.009061 Season 11 Factor 0.9990233 Season 12 Factor 0.9951959 Forecast and Residuals Plots
14000.0 18000.0 22000.0 26000.0 30000.0
2005.9 2007.1 2008.4 2009.6 2010.9
Sales Forecast Plot
Time
Sales
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Seasonal - Trend Report Page/Date/Time 2 6/11/2011 4:52:29 PM
Database C:\Users\jp1219\Documents\NCSS\NCSS 2007\Data\SALES.S0 Title MONTHLY MARKET SALES---FRESH MILK IN TAIWAN
Forecasts Section
Row Forecast Actual
No. Date Sales Sales Residuals
1 2006 1 18524.37 17263 -1261.367
2 2006 2 16304.96 16452 147.0355
3 2006 3 19763.45 19355 -408.4469
4 2006 4 20647.93 21954 1306.069
5 2006 5 24004.4 24242 237.5971
6 2006 6 24311.96 24164 -147.9632
7 2006 7 26230.05 27492 1261.954
8 2006 8 27083.58 29099 2015.417
9 2006 9 27286.1 26740 -546.0951
10 2006 10 26577.32 25574 -1003.32
11 2006 11 23287.58 23704 416.4235
12 2006 12 22737.37 20779 -1958.372
13 2007 1 18098.91 18703 604.0874
14 2007 2 17322.6 16645 -677.6018
15 2007 3 20185.11 20433 247.8888
16 2007 4 21671.71 21322 -349.7108
17 2007 5 23647.33 24406 758.6683
18 2007 6 24377.85 24066 -311.8484
19 2007 7 26156.49 26041 -115.4931
20 2007 8 25900.96 24348 -1552.966
21 2007 9 23421 23167 -253.9982
22 2007 10 22989.44 23505 515.5574
23 2007 11 21184.72 20084 -1100.717
24 2007 12 19531.2 19439 -92.19598
25 2008 1 16688.12 17357 668.8781
26 2008 2 16064.96 15271 -793.9627
27 2008 3 18526.66 19081 554.3356
28 2008 4 20163.89 20514 350.1097
29 2008 5 22600.62 22044 -556.6193
30 2008 6 22249.29 22121 -128.2872
31 2008 7 23994.6 23875 -119.5966
32 2008 8 23749.86 24697 947.1389
-2000.0 -875.0 250.0 1375.0 2500.0
2005.9 2007.1 2008.4 2009.6 2010.9
Residual Plot of Sales
Time
Residuals of Sales
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Seasonal - Trend Report Page/Date/Time 3 6/11/2011 4:52:29 PM
Database C:\Users\jp1219\Documents\NCSS\NCSS 2007\Data\SALES.S0 Title MONTHLY MARKET SALES---FRESH MILK IN TAIWAN Forecasts Section
Row Forecast Actual
No. Date Sales Sales Residuals
33 2008 9 23317.1 23972 654.9006
34 2008 10 23618.25 23762 143.7509
35 2008 11 21476.79 20720 -756.7885
36 2008 12 20082.71 20820 737.2847
37 2009 1 17722.46 18686 963.5344
38 2009 2 17241.8 18911 1669.195
39 2009 3 22422.36 21995 -427.355
40 2009 4 23475.92 22062 -1413.921
41 2009 5 24687.64 24287 -400.6447
42 2009 6 24475.45 25094 618.5548
43 2009 7 27090.71 26091 -999.7139
44 2009 8 26110.6 24859 -1251.595
45 2009 9 23854.44 23934 79.55725
46 2009 10 23687.36 23928 240.6438
47 2009 11 21608.9 23225 1616.096
48 2009 12 22056.95 23388 1331.054
49 2010 1 19790.93 50 2010 2 18432.91 51 2010 3 22228.67 52 2010 4 23641.38 53 2010 5 26167.59 54 2010 6 26292.02 55 2010 7 28526.69 56 2010 8 28348.08 57 2010 9 26939.96 58 2010 10 26675.74 59 2010 11 24109.64 60 2010 12 23200.82
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Appendix E
Decomposition Report (Validation, 48 months) Fresh Milk Forecast Method: Decomposition Seasonal Trend
Time Series Decomposition Report Page/Date/Time 1 6/11/2011 4:50:35 PM
Database C:\Users\jp1219\Documents\NCSS\NCSS 2007\Data\SALES.S0
Variable Sales
Title MONTHLY MARKET SALES—Fresh Milk in Taiwan Forecast Summary Section
Forecast 10^[(Mean) x (Trend) x (Cycle) x (Season)]
Variable Sales
Number of Rows 48
Mean 4.343749
Pseudo R-Squared 0.8911608 Forecast Std. Error 1003.339
Trend Equation Trend = (0.999829) + (-0.000019) * (Time Season Number) Number of Seasons 12
First Year 2006
First Season 1
Seasonal Component Ratios
No. Ratio No. Ratio No. Ratio No. Ratio
1 0.977703 2 0.971128 3 0.990244 4 0.996752
5 1.007150 6 1.007762 7 1.015624 8 1.014469
9 1.008775 10 1.007440 11 0.997255 12 0.993180
Forecast and Data Plot
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14000.0 18000.0 22000.0 26000.0 30000.0
2005.9 2007.4 2008.8 2010.3 2011.8
Sales Chart
Time
Sales
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Time Series Decomposition Report Page/Date/Time 2 6/11/2011 4:50:35 PM
Database C:\Users\jp1219\Documents\NCSS\NCSS 2007\Data\SALES.S0
Variable Sales
Title MONTHLY MARKET SALES—Fresh Milk in Taiwan Decomposition Ratio Plots
2005.9 2007.4 2008.8 2010.3 2011.8
Trend Ratio Chart
2005.9 2007.4 2008.8 2010.3 2011.8
Cycle Ratio Chart
2005.9 2007.4 2008.8 2010.3 2011.8
Season Ratio Chart
2005.9 2007.4 2008.8 2010.3 2011.8
Error Ratio Chart
Time
Error
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Time Series Decomposition Report Page/Date/Time 3 6/11/2011 4:50:35 PM
Database C:\Users\jp1219\Documents\NCSS\NCSS 2007\Data\SALES.S0
Variable Sales
Title MONTHLY MARKET SALES—Fresh Milk in Taiwan Forecasts Section
Row Year Forecast Actual Trend Cycle Season Error
No. Season Sales Sales Residual Factor Factor Factor Factor
1 2006 1 19189.66 17263 -1926.658 0.9998 1.0087 0.9777 0.9893
2 2006 2 17790.11 16452 -1338.109 0.9998 1.0078 0.9711 0.9920
3 2006 3 21285.06 19355 -1930.065 0.9998 1.0064 0.9902 0.9905
4 2006 4 22511.74 21954 -557.7376 0.9998 1.0055 0.9968 0.9975
5 2006 5 24731.82 24242 -489.8178 0.9997 1.0045 1.0072 0.9980
6 2006 6 24642.65 24164 -478.6522 0.9997 1.0035 1.0078 0.9981
7 2006 7 26680.74 27492 811.259 0.9997 1.0036 1.0156 1.0029
8 2006 8 26475.63 29099 2623.374 0.9997 1.0040 1.0145 1.0093
9 2006 9 25074.18 26740 1665.821 0.9997 1.0043 1.0088 1.0063
10 2006 10 24766.27 25574 807.7272 0.9996 1.0044 1.0074 1.0032
11 2006 11 22337.32 23704 1366.683 0.9996 1.0043 0.9973 1.0059
12 2006 12 21444.19 20779 -665.1892 0.9996 1.0044 0.9932 0.9968
13 2007 1 18314.07 18703 388.9309 0.9996 1.0042 0.9777 1.0021
14 2007 2 16983.71 16645 -338.7123 0.9996 1.0032 0.9711 0.9979
15 2007 3 20301.7 20433 131.2979 0.9995 1.0019 0.9902 1.0006
16 2007 4 21465.03 21322 -143.0292 0.9995 1.0010 0.9968 0.9993
17 2007 5 23570.17 24406 835.8257 0.9995 0.9999 1.0072 1.0035
18 2007 6 23484.51 24066 581.4897 0.9995 0.9990 1.0078 1.0024
19 2007 7 25251.3 26041 789.699 0.9995 0.9984 1.0156 1.0030
20 2007 8 24792.58 24348 -444.5848 0.9995 0.9978 1.0145 0.9982
21 2007 9 23272.21 23167 -105.215 0.9994 0.9971 1.0088 0.9995
22 2007 10 22861.6 23505 643.3984 0.9994 0.9967 1.0074 1.0028
23 2007 11 20535.24 20084 -451.2422 0.9994 0.9961 0.9973 0.9978 24 2007 12 19567.51 19439 -128.5135 0.9994 0.9954 0.9932 0.9993
25 2008 1 16658.45 17357 698.5532 0.9994 0.9947 0.9777 1.0042
26 2008 2 15558.52 15271 -287.5247 0.9993 0.9944 0.9711 0.9981
27 2008 3 18851.7 19081 229.3056 0.9993 0.9946 0.9902 1.0012
28 2008 4 20149.25 20514 364.751 0.9993 0.9948 0.9968 1.0018
29 2008 5 22383.48 22044 -339.4853 0.9993 0.9950 1.0072 0.9985
30 2008 6 22614.69 22121 -493.6901 0.9993 0.9955 1.0078 0.9978
31 2008 7 24602.55 23875 -727.5468 0.9993 0.9961 1.0156 0.9970
32 2008 8 24618.56 24697 78.44176 0.9992 0.9973 1.0145 1.0003
33 2008 9 23611.03 23972 360.9675 0.9992 0.9988 1.0088 1.0015
34 2008 10 23509.59 23762 252.4112 0.9992 0.9997 1.0074 1.0011
35 2008 11 21385.09 20720 -665.0854 0.9992 1.0004 0.9973 0.9968
36 2008 12 20721.76 20820 98.24145 0.9992 1.0014 0.9932 1.0005
37 2009 1 17904.67 18686 781.3312 0.9991 1.0023 0.9777 1.0044
38 2009 2 16828.29 18911 2082.705 0.9991 1.0027 0.9711 1.0120
39 2009 3 20385.17 21995 1609.828 0.9991 1.0027 0.9902 1.0077
40 2009 4 21763.6 22062 298.3979 0.9991 1.0028 0.9968 1.0014
41 2009 5 24276.68 24287 10.31796 0.9991 1.0033 1.0072 1.0000
42 2009 6 24663.57 25094 430.4343 0.9990 1.0043 1.0078 1.0017
43 2009 7 26903.91 26091 -812.9073 0.9990 1.0051 1.0156 0.9970
44 2009 8 26918.68 24859 -2059.677 0.9990 1.0063 1.0145 0.9922
45 2009 9 25804.08 23934 -1870.08 0.9990 1.0078 1.0088 0.9926
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Time Series Decomposition Report Page/Date/Time 4 6/11/2011 4:50:35 PM
Database C:\Users\jp1219\Documents\NCSS\NCSS 2007\Data\SALES.S0
Variable Sales
Title MONTHLY MARKET SALES—Fresh Milk in Taiwan Forecasts Section
Row Year Forecast Actual Trend Cycle Season Error
No. Season Sales Sales Residual Factor Factor Factor Factor
46 2009 10 25690.19 23928 -1762.194 0.9990 1.0087 1.0074 0.9930 47 2009 11 23347.69 23225 -122.6869 0.9990 1.0095 0.9973 0.9995
48 2009 12 22615.37 23388 772.6312 0.9989 1.0104 0.9932 1.0034
49 2010 1 17470.36 0.9989 1.0000 0.9777 1.0000
50 2010 2 16356.65 0.9989 1.0000 0.9711 1.0000
51 2010 3 19795.06 0.9989 1.0000 0.9902 1.0000
52 2010 4 21120.88 0.9989 1.0000 0.9968 1.0000
53 2010 5 23428.6 0.9988 1.0000 1.0072 1.0000
54 2010 6 23567.85 0.9988 1.0000 1.0078 1.0000
55 2010 7 25488.83 0.9988 1.0000 1.0156 1.0000
56 2010 8 25191.5 0.9988 1.0000 1.0145 1.0000
57 2010 9 23794.24 0.9988 1.0000 1.0088 1.0000
58 2010 10 23474.64 0.9988 1.0000 1.0074 1.0000
59 2010 11 21199.69 0.9987 1.0000 0.9973 1.0000
60 2010 12 20350.38 0.9987 1.0000 0.9932 1.0000
‧
Winter’s Report (Forecast, 60 months) for Fresh Milk Forecast Method: Winter’s with multiplicative seasonal trend adjustment
Seasonal - Trend Report Page/Date/Time 1 6/11/2011 4:56:48 PM
Database C:\Users\jp1219\Documents\NCSS\NCSS 2007\Data\SALES.S0 Title MONTHLY MARKET SALES---FRESH MILK IN TAIWAN Forecast Summary Section
Log10(Variable) Sales Number of Rows 60
Mean 22799.82
Pseudo R-Squared 0.916643 Mean Square Error 797011.9 Mean |Error| 712.8579 Mean |Percent Error| 3.172555
Forecast Method Winter's with multiplicative seasonal adjustment.
Search Iterations 136
Search Criterion Mean Square Error
Alpha 0.8730332
Beta 3.756879E-08
Gamma 3.947698E-03
Intercept (A) 4.373165
Slope (B) 7.648958E-04
Season 1 Factor 0.9818563 Season 2 Factor 0.9736617 Season 3 Factor 0.9925297 Season 4 Factor 0.9980898 Season 5 Factor 1.007528 Season 6 Factor 1.007919 Season 7 Factor 1.014312 Season 8 Factor 1.01331 Season 9 Factor 1.008709 Season 10 Factor 1.008008 Season 11 Factor 0.9983027 Season 12 Factor 0.9957737 Forecast and Residuals Plots
15000.0 20000.0 25000.0 30000.0 35000.0
2005.9 2007.4 2008.9 2010.4 2011.9
Sales Forecast Plot
Time
Sales
‧
Seasonal - Trend Report Page/Date/Time 2 6/11/2011 4:56:48 PM
Database C:\Users\jp1219\Documents\NCSS\NCSS 2007\Data\SALES.S0 Title MONTHLY MARKET SALES---FRESH MILK IN TAIWAN
Forecasts Section
Row Forecast Actual
No. Date Sales Sales Residuals
1 2006 1 18786.5 17263 -1523.498
2 2006 2 16111.33 16452 340.6747
3 2006 3 19838.37 19355 -483.3698
4 2006 4 20556.02 21954 1397.978
5 2006 5 23970.55 24242 271.4522
6 2006 6 24345.36 24164 -181.3639
7 2006 7 25832.35 27492 1659.653
8 2006 8 27049.8 29099 2049.197
9 2006 9 27566.1 26740 -826.1008
10 2006 10 26701.19 25574 -1127.194
11 2006 11 23360.32 23704 343.6839
12 2006 12 23104.55 20779 -2325.548
13 2007 1 18355.65 18703 347.346
14 2007 2 17219.05 16645 -574.0549
15 2007 3 20218.14 20433 214.8584
16 2007 4 21611.04 21322 -289.041
17 2007 5 23511.05 24406 894.9453
18 2007 6 24428.79 24066 -362.7858
19 2007 7 25752.43 26041 288.5715
20 2007 8 25790.35 24348 -1442.348
21 2007 9 23466.98 23167 -299.9824
22 2007 10 23084.05 23505 420.9515
23 2007 11 21323.73 20084 -1239.727
24 2007 12 19768.79 19439 -329.7863
25 2008 1 16997.98 17357 359.0195
26 2008 2 15985.05 15271 -714.049
27 2008 3 18546.95 19081 534.0519
28 2008 4 20127.27 20514 386.7318
29 2008 5 22518.43 22044 -474.4281
30 2008 6 22228.12 22121 -107.1171
31 2008 7 23628.18 23875 246.8245
32 2008 8 23648.67 24697 1048.332
-3000.0 -1500.0 0.0 1500.0 3000.0
2005.9 2007.4 2008.9 2010.4 2011.9
Residual Plot of Sales
Time
Residuals of Sales
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Seasonal - Trend Report Page/Date/Time 3 6/11/2011 4:56:48 PM
Database C:\Users\jp1219\Documents\NCSS\NCSS 2007\Data\SALES.S0 Title MONTHLY MARKET SALES---FRESH MILK IN TAIWAN Forecasts Section
Row Forecast Actual
No. Date Sales Sales Residuals
33 2008 9 23500.65 23972 471.3493
34 2008 10 23787 23762 -25.00126
35 2008 11 21605.67 20720 -885.6664
36 2008 12 20347.09 20820 472.9115
37 2009 1 18098.05 18686 587.9476
38 2009 2 17173.88 18911 1737.116
39 2009 3 22643.87 21995 -648.8704
40 2009 4 23390.41 22062 -1328.408
41 2009 5 24475.77 24287 -188.7715
42 2009 6 24448.85 25094 645.1514
43 2009 7 26719.79 26091 -628.7867
44 2009 8 25954.18 24859 -1095.18
45 2009 9 23913.81 23934 20.19368
46 2009 10 23806.44 23928 121.5641
47 2009 11 21737.89 23225 1487.106
48 2009 12 22491.32 23388 896.6757
49 2010 1 20256.48 21513 1256.518
50 2010 2 19679.5 19069 -610.4973
51 2010 3 23216.34 23576 359.662
52 2010 4 24939.16 24613 -326.1627
53 2010 5 27176.58 26646 -530.5823
54 2010 6 26865.81 26905 39.18773
55 2010 7 28750.25 27054 -1696.253
56 2010 8 27037.49 26610 -427.4862
57 2010 9 25503.13 26092 588.8686
58 2010 10 25879.15 26432 552.8517
59 2010 11 23942.08 24471 528.9158
60 2010 12 23827.88 25337 1509.125
61 2011 1 21859.07 62 2011 2 20144.56 63 2011 3 24452.56 64 2011 4 25922.16 65 2011 5 28587.76 66 2011 6 28752.58 67 2011 7 30742.26 68 2011 8 30484.26 69 2011 9 29140.02 70 2011 10 28983.88 71 2011 11 26300.12 72 2011 12 25675.7
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Appendix G
Winter’s Report (Validation, 48 months) for Air Conditioner
Seasonal - Trend Report
Page/Date/Time 1 2011/6/30 ¤U¤È 05:38:23
Database C:\Documents and Settings\us ... NCSS\NCSS 2007\Data\SALES.S0
Title AC MONTHLY MARKET SALES(EACH)
Forecast Summary Section Log10(Variable) Sales Number of Rows 48
Mean 54961.98
Pseudo R-Squared 0.874496 Mean Square Error 9.854667E+07
Mean |Error| 7114
Mean |Percent Error| 14.83629
Forecast Method Winter's with multiplicative seasonal adjustment.
Search Iterations 150
Search Criterion Mean Square Error
Alpha 6.259737E-07
Beta 2.238804E-02
Gamma 0.5738754
Intercept (A) 4.686174
Slope (B) 5.427435E-10
Season 1 Factor 0.9569405 Season 2 Factor 1.026979 Season 3 Factor 1.043513 Season 4 Factor 1.062904 Season 5 Factor 1.050147
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Season 6 Factor 1.032684 Season 7 Factor 1.03014 Season 8 Factor 0.9768854 Season 9 Factor 0.9463719 Season 10 Factor 0.947819 Season 11 Factor 0.9456754 Season 12 Factor 0.9799403
Forecast and Residuals Plots
Forecasts Section
Row Forecast Actual
No. Date Sales Sales Residuals
1 2006 1 32145.6 27486 -4659.604
0.0 30000.0 60000.0 90000.0 120000.0
2005.9 2007.1 2008.4 2009.6 2010.9
Sales Forecast Plot
Time
Sales
-40000.0 -22500.0 -5000.0 12500.0 30000.0
2005.9 2007.1 2008.4 2009.6 2010.9
Residual Plot of Sales
Time
Residuals of Sales
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2 2006 2 53538.58 52957 -581.5829
3 2006 3 71706.66 78204 6497.341
4 2006 4 95442.55 116473 21030.45
5 2006 5 86570.91 93163 6592.089
6 2006 6 67374.88 63238 -4136.874
7 2006 7 86912.03 96299 9386.967
8 2006 8 38444.5 35477 -2967.498
9 2006 9 21929.44 18649 -3280.439
10 2006 10 24307.1 21219 -3088.102
11 2006 11 26477.6 25793 -684.6022
12 2006 12 31841.59 31280 -561.5923
13 2007 1 29382.73 40219 10836.27
14 2007 2 53204.05 62879 9674.949
15 2007 3 75366.29 78855 3488.714
16 2007 4 106997.3 94385 -12612.26
17 2007 5 90294.69 93782 3487.314
18 2007 6 64968.82 69081 4112.182
19 2007 7 92180.98 91320 -860.9882
20 2007 8 36712.44 43093 6380.564
21 2007 9 19982.18 19727 -255.1779
22 2007 10 22483.81 23511 1027.192
23 2007 11 26082.54 24506 -1576.542
24 2007 12 31518.1 34369 2850.905
25 2008 1 35183.09 45931 10747.91
26 2008 2 58557.93 67051 8493.065
27 2008 3 77349.08 87890 10540.93
28 2008 4 99566.69 109988 10421.32
29 2008 5 92279.84 92893 613.1529
30 2008 6 67297.83 69084 1786.17
31 2008 7 91685.95 55706 -35979.95
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32 2008 8 40248.65 23724 -16524.65
33 2008 9 19835.33 19859 23.66716
34 2008 10 23067.67 23324 256.3333
35 2008 11 25165.8 21921 -3244.799
36 2008 12 33123.91 32745 -378.9044
37 2009 1 40998.92 24494 -16504.92
38 2009 2 63290.77 66216 2925.226
39 2009 3 83233.04 73731 -9502.042
40 2009 4 105420 89082 -16337.96
41 2009 5 92631.09 77147 -15484.09
42 2009 6 68317.04 69648 1330.959
43 2009 7 68883.48 65989 -2894.482
44 2009 8 29717.35 45259 15541.65
45 2009 9 19848.9 34410 14561.1
46 2009 10 23214.42 31477 8262.582
47 2009 11 23249.13 30200 6950.872
48 2009 12 32905.93 44441 11535.07
49 2010 1 30506.29 50 2010 2 64953.36 51 2010 3 77639.74 52 2010 4 95709.3 53 2010 5 83400.74 54 2010 6 69077.78 55 2010 7 67207.31 56 2010 8 37831.59 57 2010 9 27218.44 58 2010 10 27646.79 59 2010 11 27014.64 60 2010 12 39099.44
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Appendix H
Decomposition Report (Validation, 48 months) for Air Conditioner
Page/Date/Time 1 2011/6/30 ¤U¤È 05:42:16
Database C:\Documents and Settings\us ... NCSS\NCSS 2007\Data\SALES.S0
Variable Sales
Title AIR CONDITIONER MONTHLY MARKET SALES(EACH)
Forecast Summary Section
Forecast 10^[(Mean) x (Trend) x (Cycle) x (Season)]
Variable Sales
Number of Rows 48
Mean 4.677556
Pseudo R-Squared 0.9183424 Forecast Std. Error 8007.387
Trend Equation Trend = (0.999897) + (-0.000064) * (Time Season Number) Number of Seasons 12
First Year 2006
First Season 1
Seasonal Component Ratios
No. Ratio No. Ratio No. Ratio No. Ratio
1 0.970635 2 1.028424 3 1.050456 4 1.072341
5 1.059104 6 1.033179 7 1.043449 8 0.974671
9 0.931187 10 0.940598 11 0.944458 12 0.975439
Forecast and Data Plot
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0.0 30000.0 60000.0 90000.0 120000.0
2005.9 2007.4 2008.8 2010.3 2011.8
Sales Chart
Time
Sales
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Time Series Decomposition Report Title AIR CONDITIONER MONTHLY MARKET SALES(EACH)
Decomposition Ratio Plots
2005.9 2007.4 2008.8 2010.3 2011.8
Trend Ratio Chart
2005.9 2007.4 2008.8 2010.3 2011.8
Cycle Ratio Chart
2005.9 2007.4 2008.8 2010.3 2011.8
Season Ratio Chart
2005.9 2007.4 2008.8 2010.3 2011.8
Error Ratio Chart
Time
Error
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Time Series Decomposition Report Title AIR CONDITIONER MONTHLY MARKET SALES(EACH)
Forecasts Section
Row Year Forecast Actual Trend Cycle Season Error
No. Season Sales Sales Residual Factor Factor Factor Factor
1 2006 1 32435.32 27486 -4949.324 0.9998 0.9937 0.9706 0.9841
2 2006 2 60565.01 52957 -7608.007 0.9998 0.9943 1.0284 0.9878
3 2006 3 77524.3 78204 679.6945 0.9997 0.9954 1.0505 1.0008
4 2006 4 98714.84 116473 17758.15 0.9996 0.9961 1.0723 1.0144
5 2006 5 85845.14 93163 7317.856 0.9996 0.9963 1.0591 1.0072
6 2006 6 65125.73 63238 -1887.734 0.9995 0.9966 1.0332 0.9973
7 2006 7 74228.03 96299 22070.97 0.9994 0.9985 1.0434 1.0232
8 2006 8 36246.94 35477 -769.9415 0.9994 1.0007 0.9747 0.9980
9 2006 9 22850.44 18649 -4201.438 0.9993 1.0014 0.9312 0.9798
10 2006 10 25090.58 21219 -3871.58 0.9993 1.0007 0.9406 0.9835
11 2006 11 25946.83 25793 -153.8295 0.9992 1.0000 0.9445 0.9994 12 2006 12 36354.46 31280 -5074.455 0.9991 1.0004 0.9754 0.9857
13 2007 1 34571.55 40219 5647.455 0.9991 1.0006 0.9706 1.0145
14 2007 2 64799.48 62879 -1920.481 0.9990 1.0012 1.0284 0.9973
15 2007 3 83064.68 78855 -4209.683 0.9989 1.0023 1.0505 0.9954
16 2007 4 105921.9 94385 -11536.85 0.9989 1.0029 1.0723 0.9900
17 2007 5 92032.46 93782 1749.537 0.9988 1.0032 1.0591 1.0016
18 2007 6 69700.85 69081 -619.8524 0.9987 1.0034 1.0332 0.9992
19 2007 7 78644.15 91320 12675.85 0.9987 1.0044 1.0434 1.0133
20 2007 8 37709.26 43093 5383.738 0.9986 1.0052 0.9747 1.0127
21 2007 9 23723.66 19727 -3996.665 0.9985 1.0059 0.9312 0.9817
22 2007 10 26536.94 23511 -3025.938 0.9985 1.0070 0.9406 0.9881 23 2007 11 27826.38 24506 -3320.383 0.9984 1.0076 0.9445 0.9876 24 2007 12 38911.88 34369 -4542.884 0.9984 1.0077 0.9754 0.9883
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25 2008 1 36207.4 45931 9723.602 0.9983 1.0058 0.9706 1.0227
26 2008 2 64551.73 67051 2499.269 0.9982 1.0017 1.0284 1.0034
27 2008 3 79750.47 87890 8139.535 0.9982 0.9994 1.0505 1.0086
28 2008 4 100885.2 109988 9102.766 0.9981 0.9995 1.0723 1.0075
29 2008 5 87050.25 92893 5842.753 0.9980 0.9991 1.0591 1.0057
30 2008 6 65443.4 69084 3640.596 0.9980 0.9985 1.0332 1.0049
31 2008 7 70949.8 55706 -15243.8 0.9979 0.9960 1.0434 0.9783
32 2008 8 33105.11 23724 -9381.114 0.9978 0.9936 0.9747 0.9680
33 2008 9 20657.15 19859 -798.1517 0.9978 0.9929 0.9312 0.9960
34 2008 10 22495.91 23324 828.0914 0.9977 0.9915 0.9406 1.0036
35 2008 11 23077.35 21921 -1156.35 0.9976 0.9900 0.9445 0.9949
36 2008 12 31855.02 32745 889.978 0.9976 0.9894 0.9754 1.0027
37 2009 1 30487.38 24494 -5993.376 0.9975 0.9901 0.9706 0.9788
38 2009 2 58379.97 66216 7836.027 0.9975 0.9933 1.0284 1.0115
39 2009 3 77821.58 73731 -4090.575 0.9974 0.9980 1.0505 0.9952
40 2009 4 102207.3 89082 -13125.31 0.9973 1.0014 1.0723 0.9881
41 2009 5 91102.37 77147 -13955.37 0.9973 1.0039 1.0591 0.9854
42 2009 6 70767.05 69648 -1119.046 0.9972 1.0064 1.0332 0.9986
43 2009 7 77971.28 65989 -11982.28 0.9971 1.0052 1.0434 0.9852
44 2009 8 36155.74 45259 9103.263 0.9971 1.0027 0.9747 1.0214
45 2009 9 22472.15 34410 11937.85 0.9970 1.0021 0.9312 1.0425
46 2009 10 24493.3 31477 6983.696 0.9969 1.0006 0.9406 1.0248
47 2009 11 25135.14 30200 5064.856 0.9969 0.9992 0.9445 1.0181
48 2009 12 34792.87 44441 9648.134 0.9968 0.9985 0.9754 1.0234
49 2010 1 33530.56 0.9967 1.0000 0.9706 1.0000
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Time Series Decomposition Report Title AIR CONDITIONER MONTHLY MARKET SALES(EACH)
Forecasts Section
Row Year Forecast Actual Trend Cycle Season Error
No. Season Sales Sales Residual Factor Factor Factor Factor
50 2010 2 62310.73 0.9967 1.0000 1.0284 1.0000
51 2010 3 78879.24 0.9966 1.0000 1.0505 1.0000
52 2010 4 99692.17 0.9966 1.0000 1.0723 1.0000
53 2010 5 86424.8 0.9965 1.0000 1.0591 1.0000
54 2010 6 65386.72 0.9964 1.0000 1.0332 1.0000
55 2010 7 72952.94 0.9964 1.0000 1.0434 1.0000
56 2010 8 34850.31 0.9963 1.0000 0.9747 1.0000
57 2010 9 21841.27 0.9962 1.0000 0.9312 1.0000
58 2010 10 24146.33 0.9962 1.0000 0.9406 1.0000
59 2010 11 25150.88 0.9961 1.0000 0.9445 1.0000
60 2010 12 35043.92 0.9960 1.0000 0.9754 1.0000
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國立 政 治 大 學