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5. Guatemala Market Context
To comprehend the Guatemalan market context for the product we are going to introduce we need to take a look to the following points: Weather, Mosquito (Actual situation in the country), brief regional and country economic analysis.
Weather
Guatemala has a few surprises in its climate. Because the country is in Central America, most people assume it has a tropical climate; however, despite the tropical location, Guatemala's mountains alter the weather. While parts of the country have a climate typical of a tropical country, other areas actually see temperatures below freezing. Meteorologists divide Guatemala into three climate zones, which include tropical, temperate and cool zones.
Tropical Zone
Guatemala has a long coastal plain along the Pacific Ocean, while the eastern side of the country has a shorter coastline along the Caribbean Sea. These coastal plains and lowlands have a distinctly tropical climate. The temperatures range from highs of 38 Celsius and lows of 21 Celsius at night. The tropical zone stretches from each coastline, both east and west, inland to an altitude of 1,000 meters. Travelers to the tropical zone can expect high humidity and hot temperatures year-round.
Cool Zone
Most of Guatemala is rural and mountainous, and Guatemala's cool zone includes these mountainous regions that sit above 2,000 meters. In stark contrast to the tropical zone, nighttime temperatures are cold; on occasion, nighttime temperatures even fall below freezing. Daytime temperatures average around 21 C. The cool zone is a rural region with a single major city, Quetzaltenango, not often visited by tourists.
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Temperate Zone
Many of the popular tourist destinations in Guatemala, such as Antigua and Guatemala City, are in the country's temperate zone. This zone includes any areas 1,000 meters above sea level to 2,000 meters above sea level. Temperatures are much more comfortable than the tropical zone, with daytime temperatures reaching a high of 29 C. Nighttime temperatures are cool, but never below freezing. This zone's warmest month is April, and the coolest month is January.
Rainy and Dry Seasons
Instead of winter and summer, Guatemala has a dry and rainy season. The rainy season extends from May to October, but has some short dry periods in July and August. The rainy season doesn't mean days of continuous rain; the sun still shines for part of the day, often raining in the afternoon. Guatemala, however, rarely experiences heavy tropical storms.
The dry period stretches from March to the early part of May when the country may go weeks without rain.
ANNUAL JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC YEARS # CITIES Average Temperature (C) 20.7 18.9 19.6 21.4 22.2 22.5 22.2 21.6 21.7 21.3 21 20.1 19 18 11 Average High
Temperature (C) 28 27.3 27.8 28.8 29.5 29.3 28.3 28.3 28.5 27.8 27.3 27.5 27 13 4 Average Low Temperature
(C) 20.8 18.8 19.3 20.3 21.3 21.8 22 21.8 21.5 21.3 21.5 20.5 19.5 13 4
Average Precipitation
(mm) 1585.7 48.7 36.7 37.4 55.3 145.1 246.7 218.3 200 253.4 195.7 92.3 57.4 22 7
* Years is the average number of years used to compute the average. # Cities is the total number of locations used to compute the average.
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Mosquito (Country Analysis)
Weather situation tells us mosquito habitat is suitable in Guatemala. There have been found more than 139 types of mosquitoes in the region. A study was done by the Public health Research office from the University of South Carolina (U.S.) in 1994.
They show that mosquito fauna has been steady due to weather and habitat conditions.
Public Health
Malaria, Dengue fever and Chikungunya diseases have appeared during the last 15 years and affecting to the local population, diseases which are transmitted through mosquito and related insects. Some of important facts are:
• According to LEPRA in action a nonprofit charity organization which in 2005 they helped to eradicate the disease to 95% in the entire country. Guatemala is cited as having the highest annual incidence of malaria in Central America (National Malaria Programme, Guatemala) and in 2005 almost half of the registered malaria cases in Central America where in Guatemala (Pan American Health Organization).
Central America has seen a significant decrease in malaria transmission in the last decade; all seven countries (Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama) have experienced >50% decline in the number of confirmed cases between 2000 and 2010. As a result, five countries (Belize, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Panama, and Costa Rica) are designated as malaria eliminating, although all countries have joined a regional initiative that aims to eliminate malaria by 2020.
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• Dengue is spread by the Aedes aegypti mosquito with an incubation period from 3 to 14 days. In 2012 a dengue fever spread in the country. Nearly 2,000 cases of dengue fever have been reported in Guatemala with fears more may follow, according to Plan International.
Heavy rain has waterlogged swathes of the tiny Central American country, creating the perfect breeding ground for disease-carrying mosquitoes. Of the 1,813 confirmed cases, 26 have developed into the more serious dengue haemorrhagic fever, with three deaths.
• In 2014 chikungunya case became viral in the country. The Guatemala Ministry of Health reports in their latest Epidemiology report that the country now has 21,859 autochthonous transmission cases. This is significantly up from what the Pan American Health Organization report
on Dec. 12 (579 cases). 56.7 percent of the cases were reported from the Escuintla area with 12,387(tropical area in the country). Females have been more affected by the outbreak than men by more than 10 percent. The virus is
passed to humans by two species of mosquito of the genus Aedes: A. albopictus and A. aegypti. The strain of chikungunya spreading to the US from the Caribbean is most easily spread by A. aegypti.
Region and Country Risk
Central American outperformers Costa Rica and Panama are facing a more challenging road ahead in the coming years. As real GDP growth slows in Panama on the back of the end of canal construction, establishing fiscal discipline will be crucial. Should the country fail to rein in spending in an environment of lower growth, this would likely cool investor enthusiasm toward the country. Similarly, Costa Rica is also facing a challenging fiscal
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outlook, though we believe the country is more likely to embrace fiscal consolidation after a recent sovereign credit rating downgrade by Moody's.
In contrast, our outlook for most of Central America's underperformers is brightening. Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador will benefit from stronger US demand for their manufactured goods, rising remittance inflows and lower oil prices in the quarters ahead. That said, significant security risks will temper foreign direct investment into these countries over the next five years. Nicaragua's macroeconomic position is also especially vulnerable given its strong ties to Venezuela. Our core view is for a moderate slowdown in growth in the coming years due to an end to the Tariff Preference Level programme and our view that Venezuela will modestly reduce assistance to Nicaragua. However, if Venezuela were to suddenly cut off aid under the ALBA-TCP programme, this would see a sharp downturn in Nicaraguan growth and rising pressure on the country's macroeconomic buffers.
Guatemala Economic Summary