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Chapter 1 Introduction
During the 21 century, the economic depression occurred in Europe, and by contrast Asia Pacific countries rise up on the economic development. The super power status of the U.S. has been challenged by the rising China, which makes Taiwan the alliance in Asia Pacific of the U.S. has much more
strategic opportunity between the competition of China and the U.S.. The thesis focuses on the concerns on the strategy of Taiwan joining Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). In this chapter, it will cover the general information of this thesis, including motivation, background, objective, research scope, research procedure, and research method.
1-1 Research Objective and Motivation
1-1-1 Research Objective
1. The Strategy of Pivot to Asia by the Continuing U.S. Hegemony
“Return to Asia” is the central strategy of Obama government, which is owing to the unbalance strategy on European and Asia during the George Walker Bush government. Considering China has become the second largest economic entity around the globe and the economic depression in Europe as well as the rising Asia Pacific region. In order to maintain the state interest in Asia Pacific and the super power status around the world, the U.S. government operates and declares this strategy.
The main point in “Pivot to Asia” lay in the article of America’s Pacific Century in Foreign Policy announced by Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton in November 2011.She claimed “In the future 10 years, the U.S. must locate Asia Pacific region to revive the domestic economic.” The announce has pointed out the U.S. strategic focus has been transferred to the Asia Pacific area, and on the next day the U.S.
government has signed Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC), 1 which has been
1Li Qiong Li, United States 'return to Asia "on the implications of regionalism'," Global Politics Review ", No. 39, July 2012,
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recognized as the key action of the U.S.’s “return” to Asia.2 Meanwhile Hillary delivered a speech on the topic of America’s Pacific Century at East-West-Center in Honolulu.On January 5th 2012, president Obama announced “Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense” at
National Defense Pentagon, which makes sure the U.S. will transfer the focus of global strategy into Asia Pacific region.3 Obama’s announcement directly pointed out the resolution on the U.S.’s return to Asia Pacific region and also mentioned the solution to the economic challenge and the concern on China’s rising, which indicates the strategic declaration toward the global community. In May 2012 Asia Security Summit4, the Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta also delivered a speech saying the U.S.
troop will arrange 60% of the navy and vessel into the Asia Pacific region before 2020 to follow the strategic guidance of President Obama.5
As the declaration of the strategic arrangement, the U.S. actively engaged in Asian issue and participated in all kinds of multilateral organizations, for example on economic issue, the U.S. tried to lead TPP negotiation while on strategic level, the U.S. actively engage in cooperation and dialogue in different issues including politic, economic, securityand Est Asia Summit, EAS.6On the operation of strategies, the U.S. tried to adopt “First Among E-quals” and smart power to conduct Multilaterialism, including economy, education, technology, energy, nuclear security, Internet, and space activity to balance political and economic development.
Previously the strategy of the U.S. to maintain hegemony is based multilaterial approach to conduct forward-deployed diplomacy. Frankly speaking, concerning the world situation, the reason for U.S. choose to return to Asia, the point is not only because Asia is challenged by the cross-national issue, which needs stable and consistant regional framework to construct regional and international
pp.89. (李瓊莉，〈美國「重返亞太」對區域主義之意涵〉，《全球政治評論》，第39期，2012年7月，頁89。)
2H illary Clinton, America’s Pacific Century, East–West Center, Honolulu,Hawaii, Nov. 10. 2011, http://vimeo.com/32425064
3 The White House, ＜Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense, January 3, 2012, pp.1-2.
4 "Asia Security Summit," also known as "Shangri-La Dialogue" (Shangri-La Dialogue), initiated by the famous British
think-tank “The International Institute for Strategic Studies, IISS” and supported by the Government of Singapore, then in 2002 in Singapore held annual international security forum. And it was name after of "Shangri-La Dialogue," which is the first meeting held in Singapore Shangri-La Hotel, and further gradually become a major annual security summit, for the Asia-Pacific affairs.
5U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense，Public Affairs, Speech of Shangri-La Security Dialogue, June 2, 2012, http://www.defense.gov/ speeches/speech.aspx？speechid=1681,
6Li Qiong Li, United States 'return to Asia "on the implications of regionalism'," Global Politics Review ", No. 39, July 2012, pp.89. (李瓊莉，〈美國「重返亞太」對區域主義之意涵〉，《全球政治評論》，第39期，2012年7月，頁89。)
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order, but also because the U.S. focused the political and economic structure which traditional hegemony concerned, and expect the development Asia Pacific could cater the U.S. state interest.
2. Multilaterial Containment to the Rising China
Frankly speaking, the Pivot to Asia strategy of the U.S. is concerned about its own state interest and the maintainance of its super power status. However, the rising China is the main challenge who could influence the U.S. state intrest. Therefore, the U.S.’s Pivot to Asia strategy is aming at targeting China.
In the end of 20 century, Richard Bernstein and Ross H.Munro have mentioned about China as the threat to the U.S. in their book, The Coming Conflict with China. Under nationalism and the trend of becoming great power in international community, China will be eager to replace the U.S. to take over Asia. However, China’s intention is completely against the state interest of the U.S.. Owing to the goal of the U.S. is remain the balance of power in Asia and prevent any power to take over the whole Asia.
Therefore, they inferred that the Beijing authority will view the U.S. as the major obstacle to fulfill their goal.
Until the 21 century, the competition between China and the U.S. become much clearer. When the rising China gain much power in Asia, on the other hand, the U.S. is losing its influence in Asia Pacific region. As a result, for the U.S., China is not only rising, but also a influential great power in the international community. Therefore, C. Fred Bergsten mentioned the concept of “G2” in 2004. Until 2006, he further pointed out that in the early five years of the 21 century; the U.S. and China are not only serving as the leading power in the world economy, but also becoming the most important
bilateral relation in the international community. Therefore, the U.S. and China relation should enhance the relation through dialogue in economy and strategy model to construct G2 and have regular summit concerning the major issue in world economic. He pointed out that if China rising as an irresponsible great power, and it might probabaly have great conclict with the U.S.. Therefore, the U.S. should look forward to a real and stable partnership, and give the right to each other as the cooperating partner to cater the consideration of the common good for the international community. However, this statement
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reveals the time for China and U.S. to become the two great powers has comem and the U.S. is not the only super power any more.
Second, Professor Niall Ferguson mentioned the word “Chimerica” in the British Sunday Dispatch in the year of 2007, which reveals the importance of these two great powers. The word structure of
“Chimerica” is the combination China and America. Ferguson thinks that America and China are not two different countries, instead they belong to the same country, called “Chimerica”. He further pointed out that the concept of this word is based on the combination as an economic entity from America as the biggest consuming country and China the biggest saving country, which would cause great influence on the world economy.
Concerning the point of view on strategy scholars and the saying of China threat in the Europe and the U.S. or any unreasonable combination between the religion and culture from China and the U.S.
Bible or even the military expansion in the early history of China during the national establishement period, this thesis think those sketism and speculation are not necessary and will only cause threat and fear to the world peaceful development. Until the global financial crisis occurred in 2008, the European countries and the U.S. on one hand is looking forward China to provide financial support, but on the other hand, they are worrying about the rising China would cause economic negative impact on the world economy. The China authority understands these skeptism and worries, and they choose to adopt much softer action to win the recognition of the international community, through holding Olympic Games, participating and leading international organization, such as Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SGO) to reveal the partipation and contribution of Chia to the international community.
By doing so, on one hand, China tried to foster the regional cooperation, and on the other hand, China planned to expand its influence through constructing regional cooperation framework with China feature between China and Western countries such as European contries and the U.S.. In other words, the solution for China to deal with the saying China Threat is through more active participation through economy and culture to lower down the military rising impression in the international community.
Impressively, in 2013 President Obama couldn’t attend the APEC conference owing to the domestic budget issue. Meanwhile, the participation of China President Xi Jinping and his wife totally replace
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the absence of the Obama President to beomce the spotlight, which reveals the importance of China when the U.S.’s influence becomes lower.
As far as the U.S., is concerned, the declining state power has become the fact, but all the U.S> is trying to do is to postpone the time of rising China to take much more control and gain the largest benefit. Therefore, the U.S.’s Pivot to Asia is the strategy was born under this concern.
3. The Strategy of Multilateral Organization
The appearance of “Multilateral Organization” is owing to the application of multilateralism theory.
Contrast to unilateralism or bilateralism, “Multilateralism” is defined as the mechanism that among thee or more countries through the temporary or mechniasm operation to coordinate the nation policy.
The research focus of this research7, TPP is the product under the classical multilateralism.
Considering the state power, the U.S. expected to unite the neighboring countries of China, such as the alliance with Japan and South Korea to limit the the increasing power of rising China through the strategy of “Pivot to Asia” 8. For instance, the controvercial issue of South China Sea the way that the U.S. deal with is not only promote the importance of Treaty of Security and Safeguard between Japan and United States during the Daoyu Island Dispute become much more severe on October 3rd, 2010, but also held “2 plus 2” diplomacy and meeting among Minister of national defense of the two
countries in Tokyo and modify the “Cooperation Guidance on Security between the U.S. and Japan” to enhance the alliance and military support between Japan and the U.S..
In addition, considering the closing power in transaction between the U.S. and China, the U.S. adopts the operation of multilateral mechanism is another strategic expansion in economic development. On the application of relative multilateral organization strategy, the U.S. tried to seek to the cooperation between countries in Asia Pacific region to contain the rising China such as Asia-Pacific Economic
7Robert Keohane, “Multilateralism: An Agenda for Research,” International Journal, Vol.45, No.4 （1990）, pp.731.，Cited from Kei Utsunomiya，〈Multilateralism Strategy Toward Asean Country Participating In Regional Integration>, "Global Political Commentary," Vol.47, July 2014, pp. 124. (引自宇都宮溪〈東協在大國參與區域整合後之多邊 主義策略〉，《全球政治評 論》，第47期，2014年7月，頁124。)
8Evan Medeiros, “Strategic Hedging and the Future of Asia-Pacific Stability,” Washington Quarterly, Vol.29, No.1 （2005）, pp.148-153.
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Cooperation (APEC), Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Asean Regional Forum (ARF).
On the other hand, the U.S. also takes mini laterlaism as one important step to support the strategy of Pivot to Asia, for example the U.S. supports the issue of education, health and environmental
development in Lower Mekong Initiative and also the Pacific Islands Forum to support the climage change. If we view this from the strategy perspective, multilateralism or mini multilateralism could be consider as the product of multi-balance. Undoubtfully, economic concern is one of the reasons, at the sametime through the construction of alliance system, the U.S. expect to point out that there is still security concern in Asia Pacific region, which further foster the closer cooperation between countries in Asia Pacific and the U.S., and further strengthen the influence of the U.S..
After the Sunflower movement, Taiwan viewed the join chance to international organization aisolate. However, when dealing with the issue whether to join TPP or not, this thesis suggests that it need much more evidence to evaluate the pros and cons behide it.
Considering the real situation, the U.S. tended to either cooperate with China as well as other countries in Asia Pacific region, or contain the rising China from different issues. Viewing the past relations of Taiwan and China and the U.S., sometimes close sometimes far, Taiwan considers the join of Taiwan in TPP to meet the U.S. state interest and further to meet its own state interest.
There are five objectives in this research:
1. Understand the relationship between the U.S.’s strategy of Pivot to Asia and the its state interest
2. Understand the relationship between US’s strategy Pivot to Asia and the rising China 3. Analyze the strategic thinking of Taiwan joining TPP
4. Analyze Taiwan the possible application of joining TPP between th U.S. and China 5. Analyze the possibility of Taiwan joining TPP under the turmoil in Asia Pacific region
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1-1-2 Motivation
Trans Pacific Partnership (in the following will simplified as TPP) is the partnership agreement that the U.S. has lead and organized under the platform of APEC. The countries joining TPP include Asualia, Brunei Darussalam, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Puru, Singapore, and Vietnam, and the U.S.
There are 12 important transaction partner of Taiwan such as the U.S., Japan, and Canada joining TPP. The total GDP amount of TPP member accounts for 1.3% in 2009 and increases to 53.17%, and until the year of 2011 in the total global GDP, which is the largest regional integration group in the global community.9
Owing the fact that Taiwan is the official member of APEC and WTO, Taiwan has participated in many negotiations and initiatives through these two ofganizations, for instance Taiwan’s participation in WTO agriculture and transaction convenience agreement negotiation echos the WTO spirit in avariety of transaction and initiatives to further becomes the third contributer countries in WTO.
Second, Taiwan has also participated and lead several projects in APEC, including APEC “Women Innovative Economic Development Project”, “APEC Digital Opportunity Center (ADOC)” “APEC Career Accelarator Project” as well as Food Security Initiative and shared the development experience of Taiwan. Therefore, considering the past experience and participation of Taiwan by contrast to other internaitnoal organization, this thesis considers joining TPP is considerably much more possible for Taiwan.
Consider the state interest, after joininig TPP, Taiwan could generate a significant profit, for instance GDP will increase 1.95 percent, the total industry value and the general employment rate will increase 1.91% and 0.65%, the general transaction amount will increase 6.57 percent. However, if
9Ye Chang Cheng, <From "Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement" (TPP) Expanded Negotiations to Discuss the U.S. Asia-Pacific Security And Economic Strategic Layout> "Global Taiwanese E Focus" Vol. 210, August 17 2012. (葉長城，〈從「跨太平洋夥 伴協定」（TPP）擴大談判論美國亞太地區安全與經濟戰略佈局的轉變與影響〉，《全球台商e焦點》電子報，第210期，
2012年8月17日。)
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Taiwan fail to join TPP, the domestic GDP amount will decrease 0.27%, the total industry value and general employmen rate will decrease 0.13% and 0.07% and the general transaction amount will decrease 0.2%.
After joining TPP, Taiwan could find solution to the past three crises including the isolation in the international community, the lack of fair industry competition in the international community, and avoid too much dependence on the single market, which to further open and explore other markets.
Besides, owing to the industry in Taiwan such as elcectronic, information and telecommunication, biomedical, and automotive parts are the important supply chain in the Asia Pacific region. Considering the great performance of Taiwan industry, Taiwan’s semiconductor manufacture ranked second to none in the globe, LED panel owns the second high market share around the world, the export amount of tool and equipment mechine account for third in the global community as well as the automotive part
industry ranked 8th on the market share rate. Therefore, if TPP would contain Taiwan as the member, then the whole TPP members could share a more omprehensive in free trade process. According to the statistics of Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research in 2013, if Taiwan joins TPP, it could bring the whole TPP memebers more than 78 billion on social welfare.
Since Taiwan’s joining TPP is win win situation for both TPP and Taiwan, as joining other international organization, Taiwan needs to gain the agreement of China. Owing to TPP is the multilateral organization under the strategy of U.S.’s Pivot to Asia, therefore as the competition between China and the U.S., Taiwan could have a chance to find the application of strategy to join.
Considering the fact that TPP is the organization under the spirit of free trade, however according to the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research model TPP will make the deficit of the U.S. up to 1.625 billion US dollar. As a result, the intention for the U.S. to promote TPP, the non-economic motivation has much larger than the economic one. According to the model and calculation of Areerat, Kameyama, Ito and Yamauchi (2012）, they found that TPP could only contribute 0.002 percent to the U.S. economic growth, and even the join of Japan the far East alliance of the U.S. would decrease 0.004 percent to the U.S. economic growth. Surprisingly, when Japan and China both join TPP, the economic growth rate of the U.S. could increase 0.01. However, when the U.S. established TPP, the
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U.S. treated the join of Japan with the attitude “take it or leave it” and did not want China to join. Until 2011, the attitude of the U.S. has changed to welcome the participation of China. In other words, the motivation for the U.S. to promote TPP is not totally based on economic factor, but the strategic thinking on continue of containment with Japan aganst China.
U.S. treated the join of Japan with the attitude “take it or leave it” and did not want China to join. Until 2011, the attitude of the U.S. has changed to welcome the participation of China. In other words, the motivation for the U.S. to promote TPP is not totally based on economic factor, but the strategic thinking on continue of containment with Japan aganst China.