TPP的地緣政治與地緣經濟因素: 台灣加入TPP戰略思考之研究 - 政大學術集成

全文

(1)國立政治大學亞太研究英語碩士學位學程碩士班碩士學位論文 International Master’s Program in Asia-Pacific Studies College of Social Sciences National Chengchi Universitry. TPP 的地緣政治與地緣經濟因素: 政治. 大. 立 TPP 戰略思考之研究台灣加入. ‧ 國. 學. The Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Factors:. ‧. Taiwan's Strategic Calculation to Join TPP. sit. y. Nat. er. io. 指導教授: 王定士教授. al. n. v i n C h WANG Dingshu Advisor: Prof. Pd.D engchi U 研究生: 詹雅涵 Student: CHAN Ya Han. 中華民國 104 年 6 月 June 2015.

(2) Acknowledgement I would like to express my greatest appreciation and thanks to my advisor Dr. WANG Dingshu for his valuable guidance, support and encouragement through my study, also share his knowledge and for the patience in instructing me to complete this research. I would like to thank my committee members, professor Pisarev Alexander and Dr. WU Chun Kuang for their constructive feedbacks.. Last but not least, I am very grateful to my families and my best friend Tony provided me with endless support and love, and my friend Jerrel, who by the way is an outstanding proofreader, to successfully achieve one of the goals in my life.. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i. i n U. v.

(3) 摘要本研究以美國歐巴馬政府之「重返亞太」戰略，以及美國於亞太地區所倡導「太平洋經濟合作協議」──TPP 為研究標的，並以國家利益理論為研究理論基礎，分析美國面對亞太地區經濟力的強勁成長，以及中國大陸以飛奔之勢成為世界第二大經濟體，美國基於國家利益而開始主導 TPP 之成立與運作。在這過程之中，美國與中國之戰略如何運用?而台灣在國民黨與民進黨兩大黨都支持加入 TPP 的情況下，台灣加入 TPP 之途，到底可能面對那些中國與美國的戰略運用?台灣加入 TPP 之利與弊各有那些?本研究以以歷史研究法、文獻分析法為研究方法，經由所得文獻之整理、分析、歸納，提出本研究之研究成果有三項:. 政治大隨著中國國力提升，美國對中國的「圍堵」，將更加緊繃嚴密，台灣角色必然也會越來越突顯，立. 一、中國國力提升將拉高台灣進入 TPP 的機會. ‧ 國. 學. 在美國強力圍堵的戰略運作下，台灣進入 TPP 之機會越來越高。二、海島型經濟特色的台灣，向區域開放市場，是台灣唯一的選擇. ‧. 台灣海島型經濟，產業大幅仰賴出口，目前中國大陸又是台灣主要出口的地區，面對市場主要對. y. sit. al. er. io. 被對手所取代。. Nat. 手如南韓、日本已積極簽署 FTA，台灣必須積極投入，才不致被邊緣化，中國大陸市場也才不會. n. 三、TPP與FTA是全球化趨勢下的必然結果. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. 在各式區域經貿協議之中，施行零關稅及強調非關稅的壁壘，簡化文書作業及海關程序，更是打破國與國之間疆，使得關稅制度保護本土產品的制度設計初衷，不復存在，如此強者愈強，弱者愈弱，區域經濟形成一種 M 型化的競爭態勢。. 關鍵字:重返亞太、圍堵、國家利益論、TPP、FTA. ii.

(4) Abstract This thesis focuses on strategy of U.S. Pivot to Asia Pacific region and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) with the theory of state interest to analyze how the U.S. manages the establishment and operation of TPP on the consideration of the strong economic growth of Asia-Pacific region and the status of rising China as the second largest economic entity around the world. During the process, what is the strategy of the U.S. and China? On the other hand, under the domestic support of two major parties in Taiwan to join TPP, Kuomintang (KMT) and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), on the way to join TPP, what diplomatic strategies will Taiwan confront when it deals with China and the U.S.? In other words, what are the pros and cons for Taiwan to join TPP? Based on historical analysis, document analysis, this thesis found three major. 政治大 The increase of power of Rising China will enhance the opportunity of Taiwan to join TPP 立. findings: 1.. As China’s state power increases, the U.S. will adopt much more serious “Containment” strategies.. ‧ 國. 學. Under this circumstance, the role of Taiwan will become much more important. Therefore, under the. Open market to the region is the choice for sea-island economic Taiwan. sit. y. Nat. 2.. ‧. intense U.S. containment strategies, the opportunities for Taiwan to join TPP will become higher.. io. er. Taiwan belongs to sea-island economic, which relies on export on the development of industry, and China becomes the major export partner of Taiwan. Facing the challenge of South Korea and. al. n. v i n CChina, Japan which have signed FTA with has to engage in a more active way to the open U h e nTaiwan i h gc market to avoid isolation on the competition of Chinese market. 3.. TPP and FTA are the definite result of globalization Among all kinds of regional agreements, zero tax barrier and simplification of administration process on document and custom examination are the keys to break the obstacle between country and country. Moreover, by doing so countries could break the limitation on protecting the local products, which further fosters the M shape competition among the regional economic development between the strong and weak countries.. Key words, Pivot to Asia, Containment, Theory of State Interest, TPP, FTA. iii.

(5) Table of Content Abstract.............................................................................................................................................................iii Table of Content.................................................................................................................................................v Lists of Graphs..................................................................................................................................................vi Lists of Tables..................................................................................................................................................vii CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................... 1 1-1 1-2 1-3. RESEARCH OBJECTIVE AND MOTIVATION ........................................................................................... 1 HYPOTHESIS AND RESEARCH FRAMEWORK ...................................................................................... 10 LITERATURE REVIEW AND RESEARCH METHOD ............................................................................... 12. CHAPTER 2 GEOGRAPHIC ECONOMIC FACTORS................................................................................. 18 FOR TAIWAN TO JOIN TPP .......................................................................................................................... 18. 政治大. 2-1 THE U.S. ADJUSTED THE GLOBAL STRATEGY ........................................................................................ 18 2-2 ESTABLISH TPP AS PART OF PIVOT TO ASIA STRATEGY ........................................................................... 20 2-3 THE INTERPRETATION OF CHINA ............................................................................................................. 34 2-4 CONCLUSION .......................................................................................................................................... 39. 立. ‧ 國. 學. CHAPTER 3 .................................................................................................................................................... 40. ‧. GEOGRAPHY POLITICAL FACTOR FOR TAIWAN TO JOIN TPP......................................................... 40. n. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat. 3-1 THE MECHANISM OF TPP AND THE IMPACT TO ASIA PACIFIC ECONOMIC .............................................. 42 3-2 THE HISTORY AND CURRENT SITUATION ON SIGNING FTA AMONG JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA, AND THE EUROPEAN UNION......................................................................................................................................... 49 3-3 THE IMPACT ON TAIWAN INDUSTRY OF SIGNING FTA AMONG JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA, AND THE EUROPEAN UNION COUNTRIES........................................................................................................................................ 60. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. CHAPTER 4 .................................................................................................................................................... 81 THE STRATEGIC EVALUATION ON TAIWAN JOINING TPP ............................................................... 81 4-1 STRATEGY ON PEACEFUL DEVELOPMENT IN ASIA PACIFIC REGION ......................................................... 82 4-2 ECONOMIC STRATEGY BETWEEN THE U.S. AND CHINA IN AISA PACIFIC REGION .................................... 94 4-3 THE EVALUATION OF PROS AND CONS FOR TAIWAN ON JOINING TPP ................................................... 107 4-4 CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................................................ 120 CHAPTER 5 .................................................................................................................................................. 121 LIMITATION AND FUTURE RESEARCH SUGGESTION ....................................................................... 121 5-1 RESEARCH FINDINGS ............................................................................................................................ 121 5-2 RESEARCH LIMITATION AND FUTURE SUGGESTION ............................................................................... 128 REFERENCE................................................................................................................................................. 132 v.

(6) Lists of Graphs GRAPH 1-1 RESEARCH FRAMEWORK ..................................................................................................... 11 GRAPH 1-2 RESEARCH APPROACH ...................................................................... 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。 GRAPH 1-3 TIME SCOPE FOR RESEARCH ............................................................. 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。 GRAPH 3-1 COUNTRIES SIGNING FTA AROUND THE WORLD ............................... 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。 GRAPH 3-2 SCOPE OF COUNTRIES SIGNING FTA AROUND THE WORLD ............... 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。 GRAPH 3-3 SCOPE AND IMPACT IN GLOBAL TPP MARKET .................................. 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。 GRAPH 3-4 THE CURRENT SITUATION OF JAPAN SIGNING FTA ........................... 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。 GRAPH 3-5 THE CURRENT SITUATION ON SOUTH KOREA SIGNING FTA ............. 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. vi. i n U. v.

(7) Lists of Tables TABLE 3-1 THE CURRENT SITUATION OF JAPAN SIGNING FTA/EPA (2014/07) ... 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。 TABLE 3-2 THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTH KOREA SIGNING FTA......................... 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。 TABLE 3-3 THE SITUATION OF SOUTH KOREA SIGNING FTA (2012 UNTIL NOW) 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。 TABLE 3-4 THE IMPACT OF SIGNING FTA BETWEEN JAPAN AND SINGAPORE, MALAYSIA, AND THAILAND ON TAIWAN. 錯誤! 尚. 未定義書籤。 TABLE 3-5 2009-2013 THE CURRENT SITUATION OF TAIWAN IMPORTS AGRICULTURE PRODUCT FROM TPP 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。 TABLE 3-6 2009-2013 THE CURRENT SITUATION OF TAIWAN EXPORTS AGRICULTURE PRODUCT TO TPP ……………………………………………………………………………………………………錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。 TABLE 3-7 2009-2011 THE MAIN CATEGORY OF TAIWAN AGRICULTURE PRODUCT TO TPPS錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。 TABLE 3-8 THE IMPACT OF SOUTH KOREA SIGNING FTA WITH ASEAN COUNTRIES, SINGAPORE, AND CHILE ON TAIWAN EXPORT .................................................................................................................... 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。. 政治大. TABLE 3-9 THE IMPACT OF FTA BETWEEN EUROPEAN UNION AND KOREA ON TAIWAN錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。 TABLE 3-10 THE IMPACT OF FTA BETWEEN THE U.S. AND SOUTH KOREA ON GENERAL ECONOMIC DYNAMIC OF TAIWAN 錯誤! 尚. 立. 未定義書籤。. ‧ 國. 未定義書籤。. 學. TABLE 3-11 THE IMPACT OF FTA BETWEEN THE U.S. AND SOUTH KOREA ON INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT OF TAIWAN. 錯誤! 尚. TABLE 3-12 THE EVALUATION ON THE IMPACT OF FTA BETWEEN EUROPEAN AND SOUTH KOREA ON TAIWAN INDUSTRY. ‧. 誤! 尚未定義書籤。. 錯. TABLE 3-13 THE IMPACT OF FTA BETWEEN EUROPEAN AND SOUTH KOREA ON TAIWAN INDUSTRY RESPECTIVELY 錯誤! 尚未定. sit. y. Nat. 義書籤。. io. 義書籤。. n. al. er. TABLE 3-14 THE ANALYSIS ON THE AMOUNT OF MONEY OF TAIWAN MAIN EXPORT INDUSTRY BY REPLACEMENT 錯誤! 尚未定. i n U. v. TABLE 4-1 THE EXPORT GROWTH RATE AND PROPORTION OF MAIN EXPORT COUNTRIES OF TAIWAN: 2007-2013 錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。. Ch. engchi. TABLE 4-2 THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TPP AND TAIWAN TRANSACTION AND MARKET錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。 TABLE 5-1 THE IMPACT OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION ON GENERAL ECONOMIC OF TAIWAN錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。 TABLE 5-2 THE GENERAL SITUATION OF SIGNING FTA AMONG ASIAN COUNTRIES錯誤! 尚未定義書籤。. vi.

(8) Chapter 1 Introduction During the 21 century, the economic depression occurred in Europe, and by contrast Asia Pacific countries rise up on the economic development. The super power status of the U.S. has been challenged by the rising China, which makes Taiwan the alliance in Asia Pacific of the U.S. has much more strategic opportunity between the competition of China and the U.S.. The thesis focuses on the concerns on the strategy of Taiwan joining Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). In this chapter, it will cover the general information of this thesis, including motivation, background, objective, research. 政治大. scope, research procedure, and research method.. 立. ‧ 國. 學. 1-1 Research Objective and Motivation. 1.. Research Objective. ‧. 1-1-1. The Strategy of Pivot to Asia by the Continuing U.S. Hegemony. y. Nat. io. sit. “Return to Asia” is the central strategy of Obama government, which is owing to the unbalance. n. al. er. strategy on European and Asia during the George Walker Bush government. Considering China has. Ch. i n U. v. become the second largest economic entity around the globe and the economic depression in Europe as. engchi. well as the rising Asia Pacific region. In order to maintain the state interest in Asia Pacific and the super power status around the world, the U.S. government operates and declares this strategy.. The main point in “Pivot to Asia” lay in the article of America’s Pacific Century in Foreign Policy announced by Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton in November 2011. She claimed “In the future 10 years, the U.S. must locate Asia Pacific region to revive the domestic economic.” The announce has pointed out the U.S. strategic focus has been transferred to the Asia Pacific area, and on the next day the U.S. government has signed Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC), 1 which has been 1. Li Qiong Li, United States 'return to Asia "on the implications of regionalism'," Global Politics Review ", No. 39, July 2012, 1.

(9) recognized as the key action of the U.S.’s “return” to Asia. 2 Meanwhile Hillary delivered a speech on the topic of America’s Pacific Century at East-West-Center in Honolulu. On January 5th 2012, president Obama announced “Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense” at National Defense Pentagon, which makes sure the U.S. will transfer the focus of global strategy into Asia Pacific region. 3 Obama’s announcement directly pointed out the resolution on the U.S.’s return to Asia Pacific region and also mentioned the solution to the economic challenge and the concern on China’s rising, which indicates the strategic declaration toward the global community. In May 2012 Asia Security Summit 4, the Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta also delivered a speech saying the U.S. troop will arrange 60% of the navy and vessel into the Asia Pacific region before 2020 to follow the strategic guidance of President Obama. 5. 政治大. As the declaration of the strategic arrangement, the U.S. actively engaged in Asian issue and. 立. participated in all kinds of multilateral organizations, for example on economic issue, the U.S. tried to. ‧ 國. 學. lead TPP negotiation while on strategic level, the U.S. actively engage in cooperation and dialogue in different issues including politic, economic, securityand Est Asia Summit, EAS. 6On the operation of. ‧. strategies, the U.S. tried to adopt “First Among E-quals” and smart power to conduct Multilaterialism,. y. Nat. n. al. er. io. balance political and economic development.. sit. including economy, education, technology, energy, nuclear security, Internet, and space activity to. i n U. v. Previously the strategy of the U.S. to maintain hegemony is based multilaterial approach to. Ch. engchi. conduct forward-deployed diplomacy. Frankly speaking, concerning the world situation, the reason for U.S. choose to return to Asia, the point is not only because Asia is challenged by the cross-national issue, which needs stable and consistant regional framework to construct regional and international. pp.89. (李瓊莉，〈美國「重返亞太」對區域主義之意涵〉，《全球政治評論》，第39期，2012年7月，頁89。) 2 H illary Clinton, America’s Pacific Century, East–West Center, Honolulu,Hawaii, Nov. 10. 2011, http://vimeo.com/32425064 3 The White House, ＜Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense, January 3, 2012, pp.1-2. 4 "Asia Security Summit," also known as "Shangri-La Dialogue" (Shangri-La Dialogue), initiated by the famous British think-tank “The International Institute for Strategic Studies, IISS” and supported by the Government of Singapore, then in 2002 in Singapore held annual international security forum. And it was name after of "Shangri-La Dialogue," which is the first meeting held in Singapore Shangri-La Hotel, and further gradually become a major annual security summit, for the Asia-Pacific affairs. 5 U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense，Public Affairs, Speech of Shangri-La Security Dialogue, June 2, 2012, http://www.defense.gov/ speeches/speech.aspx？speechid=1681, 6 Li Qiong Li, United States 'return to Asia "on the implications of regionalism'," Global Politics Review ", No. 39, July 2012, pp.89. (李瓊莉，〈美國「重返亞太」對區域主義之意涵〉，《全球政治評論》，第39期，2012年7月，頁89。) 2.

(10) order, but also because the U.S. focused the political and economic structure which traditional hegemony concerned, and expect the development Asia Pacific could cater the U.S. state interest.. 2.. Multilaterial Containment to the Rising China. Frankly speaking, the Pivot to Asia strategy of the U.S. is concerned about its own state interest and the maintainance of its super power status. However, the rising China is the main challenge who could influence the U.S. state intrest. Therefore, the U.S.’s Pivot to Asia strategy is aming at targeting China.. In the end of 20 century, Richard Bernstein and Ross H.Munro have mentioned about China as the threat to the U.S. in their book, The Coming Conflict with China. Under nationalism and the trend of. 政治大. becoming great power in international community, China will be eager to replace the U.S. to take over. 立. Asia. However, China’s intention is completely against the state interest of the U.S.. Owing to the goal. ‧ 國. 學. of the U.S. is remain the balance of power in Asia and prevent any power to take over the whole Asia. Therefore, they inferred that the Beijing authority will view the U.S. as the major obstacle to fulfill. ‧. their goal.. y. Nat. io. sit. Until the 21 century, the competition between China and the U.S. become much clearer. When the. n. al. er. rising China gain much power in Asia, on the other hand, the U.S. is losing its influence in Asia Pacific. i n U. v. region. As a result, for the U.S., China is not only rising, but also a influential great power in the. Ch. engchi. international community. Therefore, C. Fred Bergsten mentioned the concept of “G2” in 2004. Until 2006, he further pointed out that in the early five years of the 21 century; the U.S. and China are not only serving as the leading power in the world economy, but also becoming the most important bilateral relation in the international community. Therefore, the U.S. and China relation should enhance the relation through dialogue in economy and strategy model to construct G2 and have regular summit concerning the major issue in world economic. He pointed out that if China rising as an irresponsible great power, and it might probabaly have great conclict with the U.S.. Therefore, the U.S. should look forward to a real and stable partnership, and give the right to each other as the cooperating partner to cater the consideration of the common good for the international community. However, this statement 3.

(11) reveals the time for China and U.S. to become the two great powers has comem and the U.S. is not the only super power any more. Second, Professor Niall Ferguson mentioned the word “Chimerica” in the British Sunday Dispatch in the year of 2007, which reveals the importance of these two great powers. The word structure of “Chimerica” is the combination China and America. Ferguson thinks that America and China are not two different countries, instead they belong to the same country, called “Chimerica”. He further pointed out that the concept of this word is based on the combination as an economic entity from America as the biggest consuming country and China the biggest saving country, which would cause great influence on the world economy. Concerning the point of view on strategy scholars and the saying of China threat in the Europe and. 政治大. the U.S. or any unreasonable combination between the religion and culture from China and the U.S.. 立. Bible or even the military expansion in the early history of China during the national establishement. ‧ 國. 學. period, this thesis think those sketism and speculation are not necessary and will only cause threat and fear to the world peaceful development. Until the global financial crisis occurred in 2008, the European. ‧. countries and the U.S. on one hand is looking forward China to provide financial support, but on the. y. Nat. io. sit. other hand, they are worrying about the rising China would cause economic negative impact on the. n. al. er. world economy. The China authority understands these skeptism and worries, and they choose to adopt. i n U. v. much softer action to win the recognition of the international community, through holding Olympic. Ch. engchi. Games, participating and leading international organization, such as Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SGO) to reveal the partipation and contribution of Chia to the international community. By doing so, on one hand, China tried to foster the regional cooperation, and on the other hand, China planned to expand its influence through constructing regional cooperation framework with China feature between China and Western countries such as European contries and the U.S.. In other words, the solution for China to deal with the saying China Threat is through more active participation through economy and culture to lower down the military rising impression in the international community. Impressively, in 2013 President Obama couldn’t attend the APEC conference owing to the domestic budget issue. Meanwhile, the participation of China President Xi Jinping and his wife totally replace 4.

(12) the absence of the Obama President to beomce the spotlight, which reveals the importance of China when the U.S.’s influence becomes lower. As far as the U.S., is concerned, the declining state power has become the fact, but all the U.S> is trying to do is to postpone the time of rising China to take much more control and gain the largest benefit. Therefore, the U.S.’s Pivot to Asia is the strategy was born under this concern.. 3.. The Strategy of Multilateral Organization. The appearance of “Multilateral Organization” is owing to the application of multilateralism theory. Contrast to unilateralism or bilateralism, “Multilateralism” is defined as the mechanism that among thee or more countries through the temporary or mechniasm operation to coordinate the nation policy.. 政治大. The research focus of this research 7, TPP is the product under the classical multilateralism.. 立. Considering the state power, the U.S. expected to unite the neighboring countries of China, such as. ‧ 國. 學. the alliance with Japan and South Korea to limit the the increasing power of rising China through the strategy of “Pivot to Asia” 8. For instance, the controvercial issue of South China Sea the way that the. ‧. U.S. deal with is not only promote the importance of Treaty of Security and Safeguard between Japan. y. Nat. io. sit. and United States during the Daoyu Island Dispute become much more severe on October 3rd, 2010,. n. al. er. but also held “2 plus 2” diplomacy and meeting among Minister of national defense of the two. i n U. v. countries in Tokyo and modify the “Cooperation Guidance on Security between the U.S. and Japan” to. Ch. engchi. enhance the alliance and military support between Japan and the U.S.. In addition, considering the closing power in transaction between the U.S. and China, the U.S. adopts the operation of multilateral mechanism is another strategic expansion in economic development. On the application of relative multilateral organization strategy, the U.S. tried to seek to the cooperation between countries in Asia Pacific region to contain the rising China such as Asia-Pacific Economic. 7. Robert Keohane, “Multilateralism: An Agenda for Research,” International Journal, Vol.45, No.4 （1990）, pp.731.，Cited from Kei Utsunomiya，〈Multilateralism Strategy Toward Asean Country Participating In Regional Integration>, "Global Political Commentary," Vol.47, July 2014, pp. 124. (引自宇都宮溪〈東協在大國參與區域整合後之多邊主義策略〉，《全球政治評論》，第47期，2014年7月，頁124。) 8 Evan Medeiros, “Strategic Hedging and the Future of Asia-Pacific Stability,” Washington Quarterly, Vol.29, No.1 （2005）, pp.148-153. 5.

(13) Cooperation (APEC), Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Asean Regional Forum (ARF). On the other hand, the U.S. also takes mini laterlaism as one important step to support the strategy of Pivot to Asia, for example the U.S. supports the issue of education, health and environmental development in Lower Mekong Initiative and also the Pacific Islands Forum to support the climage change. If we view this from the strategy perspective, multilateralism or mini multilateralism could be consider as the product of multi-balance. Undoubtfully, economic concern is one of the reasons, at the sametime through the construction of alliance system, the U.S. expect to point out that there is still security concern in Asia Pacific region, which further foster the closer cooperation between countries in Asia Pacific and the U.S., and further strengthen the influence of the U.S... 政治大. After the Sunflower movement, Taiwan viewed the join chance to international organization. 立. need much more evidence to evaluate the pros and cons behide it.. 學. ‧ 國. aisolate. However, when dealing with the issue whether to join TPP or not, this thesis suggests that it. Considering the real situation, the U.S. tended to either cooperate with China as well as other. ‧. countries in Asia Pacific region, or contain the rising China from different issues. Viewing the past. y. Nat. io. sit. relations of Taiwan and China and the U.S., sometimes close sometimes far, Taiwan considers the join. n. al. er. of Taiwan in TPP to meet the U.S. state interest and further to meet its own state interest.. Ch. engchi. There are five objectives in this research: 1.. i n U. v. Understand the relationship between the U.S.’s strategy of Pivot to Asia and the its state interest. 2.. Understand the relationship between US’s strategy Pivot to Asia and the rising China. 3.. Analyze the strategic thinking of Taiwan joining TPP. 4.. Analyze Taiwan the possible application of joining TPP between th U.S. and China. 5.. Analyze the possibility of Taiwan joining TPP under the turmoil in Asia Pacific region. 6.

(14) 1-1-2 Motivation Trans Pacific Partnership (in the following will simplified as TPP) is the partnership agreement that the U.S. has lead and organized under the platform of APEC. The countries joining TPP include Asualia, Brunei Darussalam, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Puru, Singapore, and Vietnam, and the U.S.. There are 12 important transaction partner of Taiwan such as the U.S., Japan, and Canada joining TPP. The total GDP amount of TPP member accounts for 1.3% in 2009 and increases to 53.17%, and until the year of 2011 in the total global GDP, which is the largest regional integration group in the global community. 9. 立. 政治大. Owing the fact that Taiwan is the official member of APEC and WTO, Taiwan has participated in. ‧ 國. 學. many negotiations and initiatives through these two ofganizations, for instance Taiwan’s participation in WTO agriculture and transaction convenience agreement negotiation echos the WTO spirit in. ‧. avariety of transaction and initiatives to further becomes the third contributer countries in WTO.. y. Nat. io. sit. Second, Taiwan has also participated and lead several projects in APEC, including APEC “Women. n. al. er. Innovative Economic Development Project”, “APEC Digital Opportunity Center (ADOC)” “APEC. i n U. v. Career Accelarator Project” as well as Food Security Initiative and shared the development experience. Ch. engchi. of Taiwan. Therefore, considering the past experience and participation of Taiwan by contrast to other internaitnoal organization, this thesis considers joining TPP is considerably much more possible for Taiwan. Consider the state interest, after joininig TPP, Taiwan could generate a significant profit, for instance GDP will increase 1.95 percent, the total industry value and the general employment rate will increase 1.91% and 0.65%, the general transaction amount will increase 6.57 percent. However, if. 9. Ye Chang Cheng, <From "Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement" (TPP) Expanded Negotiations to Discuss the U.S. Asia-Pacific Security And Economic Strategic Layout> "Global Taiwanese E Focus" Vol. 210, August 17 2012. (葉長城，〈從「跨太平洋夥伴協定」（TPP）擴大談判論美國亞太地區安全與經濟戰略佈局的轉變與影響〉，《全球台商e焦點》電子報，第210期， 2012年8月17日。) 7.

(15) Taiwan fail to join TPP, the domestic GDP amount will decrease 0.27%, the total industry value and general employmen rate will decrease 0.13% and 0.07% and the general transaction amount will decrease 0.2%. After joining TPP, Taiwan could find solution to the past three crises including the isolation in the international community, the lack of fair industry competition in the international community, and avoid too much dependence on the single market, which to further open and explore other markets. Besides, owing to the industry in Taiwan such as elcectronic, information and telecommunication, biomedical, and automotive parts are the important supply chain in the Asia Pacific region. Considering the great performance of Taiwan industry, Taiwan’s semiconductor manufacture ranked second to none in the globe, LED panel owns the second high market share around the world, the export amount of tool. 政治大. and equipment mechine account for third in the global community as well as the automotive part. 立. industry ranked 8th on the market share rate. Therefore, if TPP would contain Taiwan as the member,. ‧ 國. 學. then the whole TPP members could share a more omprehensive in free trade process. According to the statistics of Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research in 2013, if Taiwan joins TPP, it could bring. ‧. the whole TPP memebers more than 78 billion on social welfare.. y. Nat. io. sit. Since Taiwan’s joining TPP is win win situation for both TPP and Taiwan, as joining other. n. al. er. international organization, Taiwan needs to gain the agreement of China. Owing to TPP is the. i n U. v. multilateral organization under the strategy of U.S.’s Pivot to Asia, therefore as the competition. Ch. engchi. between China and the U.S., Taiwan could have a chance to find the application of strategy to join. Considering the fact that TPP is the organization under the spirit of free trade, however according to the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research model TPP will make the deficit of the U.S. up to 1.625 billion US dollar. As a result, the intention for the U.S. to promote TPP, the non-economic motivation has much larger than the economic one. According to the model and calculation of Areerat, Kameyama, Ito and Yamauchi (2012）, they found that TPP could only contribute 0.002 percent to the U.S. economic growth, and even the join of Japan the far East alliance of the U.S. would decrease 0.004 percent to the U.S. economic growth. Surprisingly, when Japan and China both join TPP, the economic growth rate of the U.S. could increase 0.01. However, when the U.S. established TPP, the 8.

(16) U.S. treated the join of Japan with the attitude “take it or leave it” and did not want China to join. Until 2011, the attitude of the U.S. has changed to welcome the participation of China. In other words, the motivation for the U.S. to promote TPP is not totally based on economic factor, but the strategic thinking on continue of containment with Japan aganst China. From the perspective of the U.S. as the super power, from the consideration of state interest, the U.S. has to limit the rising China to lower down or suspend the challenge to the U.S. hegemony, and to further maintain the state interest of the U.S. in every corner around the world. Therefore, the containment of U.S. against China is totally based on the state interest to develop. On the other hand, the democracy value promoted by the U.S. on one hand is the spirit of the U.S. government, and on the other hand, this is also the different value which was different from the Soviet Union after the Second. 政治大. World War. At that moment, the authority of Taiwan government was under the competition against. 立. the Cross-Striat, and contrast to China’s communism, the Taiwan government authority catered the U.S.. ‧ 國. 學. government with the value of democracy and freedom. Also for the U.S. government, the stable Cross-Strait is the consistent strategy of the U.S... ‧. As far as China is concerned, facing the “One China” issue with Taiwan, on one hand China. y. Nat. io. sit. authority would like to control Taiwan thorugh the soft power of economy, but China did not allow. n. al. er. Taiwan any space in the international community. In other words, if Taiwan could manipulate the. i n U. v. competition and cooperartion between China and the U.S., Taiwan could find a space among them to. Ch. engchi. participate in the international community to further develop the economy and transaction and make the most profit for its own state interest.. 9.

(17) 1-2 Hypothesis and Research Framework 1-2-1 Hypothesis This thesis is trying to answer the following questions: TPP serves as a part of the U.S. Pivot to Asia strategy and TPP is also the main strategy for the U.S. to return to Asia. Taiwan could serve as the point to support the U.S. to return to Asia. Is it possible for Taiwan to deal with the rising China well and gain the support of the U.S. successfully without against the rising China, how could Taiwan behave?. 1-2-2 Research Framework. 立. 政治大. Reseaerch framework shows the dynamic of the research processure and further built up the logic. ‧ 國. 學. and relationship between each step. The research framework of this research is as below:. ‧. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. 10. i n U. v.

(18) Define of the Research Question. Confirmation Research Objective and Research Content. Construction of the Research Method Apply and Discuss of the Theory. Literature Review of State Interest Theory─ Realsim, Liberlsim, and Constructivism. Review of the competition between the U.S. and China from the history development. 政治大 The Operation of Multilateral Organization and Military Alliance under the 立 Pivot to Asia Strategy. n. y er. io. sit. Research Analysis and Finding. al. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. The Analysis of Taiwan’s Economic Growth and International Participation of Joining TPP. Nat. The Possible Strategic Thinking of the U.S. and China. Ch. Research Result and Suggestion. engchi. i n U. Graph 1-1Research Framework Source: Researcher self. 11. v.

(19) 1-3 Literature Review and Research Method In this part, this thesis will introduce the literature review and process of research approach as well as the research method:. 1-3-1 Literature Review This thesis focuses on the strategic thinking on Taiwan joining TPP and the two great power, China and the U.S. which will have close relations with Taiwan on the process of joining TPP. As mentioned above, the competition between the U.S. and China provides not only opportunities, but also obstable. 政治大. for Taiwan to join TPP. How should Taiwan survive under the competition between these great powers. 立. and the group of countries lead under them? Considering the above situation, this thesis would adopt. ‧ 國. 學. the state interest theory from the international politics to exam.. “State Interest” means the necessary condition for state to survive and develop, which is also the. ‧. basic motivation and highest principle for nation state to interact with other states. 10 Since the. y. Nat. io. sit. contemporary country developed, the theory focusing on state interest oriented has attracted the. n. al. er. attention of the academic field. There are mainly three groups of believe thouch upon this issue, including realism, liberalism, and constructivism.. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. 1. J.Morgenthau’s Six Principles of Political Realism Realists think that state as a political entity, the key issue of it is the survival, which connect, extend and expand the exist of the state. Therefore, national security becomes the most important issue, and the whole political operation is for the maximum of the state interest, especially the power on politc and military development. 11In order to make sure the state security, state has to control the power and 10. Yu Zheng Liang. "Introduction to Contemporary International Relations", Shanghai: Fudan University Press, 1996, pp. 72-76. (俞正樑，《當代國際關係學導論》，上海：復旦大學出版社，1996 年，頁 72-76。) 11 Zheng Chun and Zhao Hai Ying. <Analysis of National Interest in Western International Political Perspective>, "Hebei Journal", Vol. 32, Issue 2, March 2012, pp. 185 (鄭春、趙海英，〈西方國際政治學視野中的國家利益概念辨析〉，《河北學刊》，第32 卷第2期，2012年3月，頁185。) 12.

(20) fortune. J.Morgenthau, the founder of classic realism in his book, Six Principles of Political Realsim mentioned that the understanding of international politic is the understanding to power, by doing so, the study of internaitnonal or politic could be independent and stand out from other subject study. However, he thinks that the concept of power and force are different, and force is only one of the ways to pursue for power. He further pointed out that “If the world is still made of state in the politic, and then in the inrernaitonal poliic, the language in this community could only be state interest.” The international politic fights just as any other politic on the world for the power. 12The realist thinks that realism gain state interest through power to fulfill, maintain and develop benefit of the state. Other benefits such as economic, society and culture are also the propertity which could gain through power. 13. 政治大. 2. Robert Keohane’s After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy. 立. Keohane’s book starts from the aspect of state interest of liberalism to discuss how liberalism. ‧ 國. 學. adopts international norm, international organization ad international law to define state interest, which break the limitation that state is the only sovereignty of state interest. He believes that the way to gain. ‧. interest is only based on conflict and competition, but also based on cooperation. That is state should. y. Nat. io. sit. not only focus on comparative benefit, but also the absolute benefit. 14 Desipte “High Politic” such as. n. al. er. sovereighty, security, and military play important role in international politic, those “Low Politic” issue. i n U. v. such as economic, society, and ecology is also getting more and more attention in the international community.. 15. Ch. engchi. Robert Keohane has pointed out in his book, After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy, “In the contemporary international community, a more efficient way to solve the problem is through cooperation, instead of conflict. Cooperation between state and state become a. 12. Morgenthau, "Politics Among Nations", Beijing: Commercial Press, 1993, pp. 17. (摩根索，《國家間的政治》，北京:商務印書館，1993年，頁17。) 13 Zheng Chun and Zhao Hai Ying. <Analysis of National Interest in Western International Political Perspective>, "Hebei Journal", Vol. 32, Issue 2, March 2012, pp. 185 (鄭春、趙海英，〈西方國際政治學視野中的國家利益概念辨析〉，《河北學刊》，第 32 卷第 2 期，2012 年 3 月，頁 185。) 14 Zheng Chun and Zhao Hai Ying. <Analysis of National Interest in Western International Political Perspective>, "Hebei Journal", Vol. 32, Issue 2, March 2012, pp. 186. (鄭春、趙海英，〈西方國際政治學視野中的國家利益概念辨析〉，《河北學刊》，第32 卷第2期，2012年3月，頁186。) 15 Clark Arend. Legal Rules and International Society. Oxford University Press，1999． 13.

(21) possible way for states to fulfill their state interest. 16” From the process of TPP, the negotiation is the way that states pursue state interest to conduct regional integration and discussion over the national border which replaces the military conflict.. 3. Alexander Wendt’s Social Theory of International Politics Alexander Wendt, the American schalor is the representative of the theory state interst in Constructivism. The scholars followed the believe of Wendt believed that although there are objective material factor exist, only through the shared of common idea of different entities could influence the entity behavior. Therefore, the two core hypotheses of constructivism are: 1. The structure of relationship between person and person is based on shared idea instead of material. 2. The identity and. 政治大. interest of the entity is constructed by these shared idea not inherent. 17 The first hypothsis embody the. 立. basic principle of constructivism which is contrast to the materialism. The second hypothesis presents. ‧ 國. 學. the research method of the whole constructivism, which is totally different from the individualism. 18 Constructivism believes that “state is embedded in the complex international community net, which. ‧. forms their understanding and their position in this world. As the state is socialized by the international. y. Nat. io. sit. community, and they start to gain their interest. 19” “Therefore, state and the people living inside in this. n. al. er. international community, their identity is constructed by the structure both inside and outside. i n U. v. environment.” As a result, “the status and power of a state in the international community is not. Ch. engchi. decided by the own state development, but decided by the comparison with the development of other states. 20” Constructivism further claims that “interest based on recognition.” For example, if two states. 16Robert O.Keohane，After Hegemony：Cooperation and Discord in the World PoliticalEconomy，New Jersey：Princeton University Press，1984. Cited from Alexander Wendt, "Social Theory of International Politics", Shanghai: Shanghai People's Publishing House, 2000, pp. 1. (引自亞歷山大·溫特，《國際政治的社會理論》，上海：上海人民出版社，2000年，頁1。) 17 Zheng Chun and Zhao Hai Ying. <Analysis of National Interest in Western International Political Perspective>, "Hebei Journal", Vol. 32, Issue 2, March 2012, pp. 187 (鄭春、趙海英，〈西方國際政治學視野中的國家利益概念辨析〉，《河北學刊》，第32 卷第2期，2012年3月，頁187。) 18 Alexander Wendt, "Social Theory of International Politics", Shanghai: Shanghai People's Publishing House, 2000, pp. 1. (亞歷山大·溫特，《國際政治的社會理論》，上海：上海人民出版社，2000年，頁1。) 19 Alexander Wendt, "Social Theory of International Politics", Shanghai: Shanghai People's Publishing House, 2000, pp. 1.(亞歷山大·溫特，《國際政治的社會理論》，上海：上海人民出版社，2000年，頁68。) 20 Guo Xue Zhen, < National Sovereignty Concept in Constructivist Theory of International Relations: Humanitarian Intervention and Interpretation Challenges', "Soochow Political Sciences", Vol. 32 No. 4, 2014, pp. 126. (郭雪貞，〈國際關係建構主義理論的國家主權觀：人道干預的挑戰與詮釋〉，《東吳政治學報》，第32卷第4期，2014年，頁126。) 14.

(22) are in the “relation of enemy”, and then survial would be the only choice; if these states are in the “relation of friend” then they would have other choices. By the same token, state interest is based on the “recognition of the state identity” which is different from the concept of survival is the only state interest that realism emphasized. Constructivism insists that state interest is changing, that is the state interest is based on the mutual interaction of the society. 21” As for culture, it not only influences the state behavior and motivation, but also the basic feature and identity of he state. 22. 1-3-2 Research Approach This thesis starts from the aspect of state interest to analyze the strategy of the U.S.’s “Pivot to Asia” and the join of Taiwan into TPP, as well as further discuss whether the U.S. could contain the rising China through the multilateral organization and a variety of agenda settings to maintain its own system and state interest? If we take the example from South Sea issue, as the rising China appears, the U.S. would like to form the alliance with Japan, and the role of Taiwna would become much more important in their coming competition. As for the “One China” issue, China is amining at forming multilateral organizations, such as SCO to foster the regional integration, which indicates the competition with the U.S., or to fulfill the replacement to become the next hegemony in the globe. Therefore, for the state interest of the U.S., the issue that the U.S. has to deal with is not only a regional great power, but also a rival that would have the opportunity to take over the state interest. Under the consideration of the state interest, whether the U.S. would give Taiwan the space to join the international activity in order to confriain the rising China? In the international theory, when dealing with the great power, usually the small country would have two strategies, “balancing” or “bandwagoning”. Balacing means the small country fight against the great power through enhancing the inner power or cooperating with other small country to form alliance. 23 On the operation of balancing, through strengthening their own power or forming military alliance with other super power, these small countries reach the status of balancing of power. 24 By doing so, those small countries could fulfill their state interest. On the other hand, the bandwagoning strategy means the weak state joins the group of the super power. In other words, it is also an unfair exchange that is the weak state yield unbalance compromise to the great power and follows the order and condition of the super power. 25 Under that circumstance, those small countries pursue the maximum of their state interest through the strategy of. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. 21. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. Peter Katzenstein （ed.）, The Culture of National Security: Norms and Identity In World Politics （New York: Columbia University Press, 1996）, p.2; Alexander Wendt, Social Theory of International Politics, pp.193-245.。 22 Rey Koslowski and Friedrich Kratochwil, “Understanding Change in International Politics: The Soviet Empire Demise and the International System,” International Organization, Vol.48, No.2 （Spring 1994）, pp.216。 23 Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics. Reading: Addison-Wesley, 1979, pp.127. 24 Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics. Reading: Addison-Wesley, 1979, pp.126. 25 Stephen Walt, “Alliance Formation in Southwest Asia: Balancing and Band wagoning in Cold War Competition,” in Robert Jervis and Jack Snyder eds., Dominoes and Bandwagons .New York: Oxford University Press, 1991, pp.55.。 15.

(23) “engagement” and “hedge”. Especially, the strategy of engagement adopts non-violant approach to change the situation of the rising great power to make sure the great power would adopt the non-violant way to reach their goal. Either balancing or bandwagoning are the strategy that Taiwan could adopt; however the result would be successful or not which depends on the competition between the U.S. and China and also the choice of the U.S.. Owing to the fact that TPP is an economic organization, as far as the current situation of China and Taiwan, China would have some space for Taiwan. On the other hand, for the U.S., TPP is also an influential multilateral organization that is a part of the strategy “Pivot to Asia”. Therefore, on the perspective against China, the U.S. may be also willing to give opportunity to Taiwan under the consideration of strategy, which provides the “hedge” to Taiwan during the interaction of “engagement”. As far as Taiwan is concerned from the strategy of “balancing” and “bandwagoning”, following the interaction of the two great power, Taiwan would have more space to manipulate, which are the research concern and process of this research. Graph 1-2 Research Approach Pursuit of the U.S. State 治政 The Interest 大. The Stability and Rising. Hedge. Economy of the Asia. 立. Pacific Region. Bandwagon. The Rise of China and Its Expanding. n. al. sit. Influence. er. io 1-3-3 Research methodology. y. Engage. Nat. Source：Researcher self. ‧ 國. TPP. Compete. ‧. of Taiwan Joining. 學. The Pros and Cons. “Pivot to Asia” Strategy. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. This thesis conducts two research methods. 1-3-3-1 Document Analysis Document analysis or content analysis means the analysis through the information gathered from the past literature review and discuss the general situation from the historical order. 26 This research method is the most common way that the current political scholars conduct to infer the influence of the past historical event and tell the truth through analyzing. 27 There are four process of this method, including reading and organizing, description, classifying, ad interpretation. Through the systematical arrangement and Wu Yu Shan, "Confrontation or Bandwagoning ── New Interpretation in Cross-Strait Relations," Taipei: Zheng Zhong Bookstore, 1997, p. 197. (吳玉山，《抗衡或扈從──兩岸關係新詮》，台北：正中書局，民國86年，頁197。) 27 Lu Ya Li, "Political Science Methodology", Taipei: San Min Bookstore, 1994, pp. 13. (呂亞力，《政治學方法論》，台北：三民書局，1994 年，頁 13。) 16 26.

(24) objective analysis, scholars comfirmed the truth and reasonability of the relative literature review. As for the application of the document analysis, this thesis focuses on the following consequence of containment strategy of the Post Cold War. During the Cold War, the U.S. adopted military solution while after the Cold War, the U.S. seeks to economic solution to continue the strategy of containment, that is TPP. The document analysis in this thesis mainly focuses on the application of the U.S. containment targeting on China, and the prevention of the East Asia toward the rising China. The data source comes from the primary data, such as official documents, academic research findings, news from the U.S., Taiwan and China. Also, this thesis takes a reference from secondary source such as academic thesis domestically and internationally, periodicals, and Internet data with reliable credits as well as the conversation and response of the U.S. and China from the media to dig out more findings.. 1-3-3-2 Historical Method In the studies of the international studies, the application of he historical method is focusing on the cause and effect of the historical event during the time period processing through the review of the event. This thesis focuses on the historical background of the Post Second World War, how did the U.S. pursue its own state interest and what did China response. Among the interaction, this thesis especially put much attention on the angle of global hegemony and adopts historical method to understand the whole picture of the global economy, politic, and ethnicity in the international community trying to have a clearer picture on the topic that this thesis concerns.. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. Post War World II (Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union). sit. y. Nat. n. al. er. io. 2008 (Obama Presidency). Ch. engchi. 2011 to 2015(Propose of Pivot to Asia Strategy). Graph 1-3: Time Scope for Research. 17. i n U. v.

(25) Chapter 2 Geographic Economic Factors for Taiwan to Join TPP The U.S. strategy of “Pivot to Asia” is the part that consistent with the Asia Pacific strategy, which is aiming at stabilizing the hegemony and the state interest. In this chapter, this thesis discuss the U.S.’s strategy of “Pivot to Asia” toward the rising China.. 2-1 The U.S. Adjusted the Global Strategy 治. 立. 政. 大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. Considering the issue of proposing TPP, the Chinese scholar Zao and Zuo thik that TPP is a comparatively fair Marshall Plan. 28 On the other hand, the military alliance and collative sanction toward China with the group of countries, including the U.S., Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines, Australia and Vietnam as Zao and Zuo mentioned could be viewed as the “Mino NATO in Asia” with more loose structure. 29 For the Chinese scholar, the U.S. containment against China presents in the way of economic activity, regulation settings on economic transaction as well as the competition between the values. In the following paragraph, this trhesis will discuss the process of TPP and the application of the U.S.’s “Pivot to Asia” strategy.. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch 2-1-1 U.S. Adjusted the Global Strategy. engchi. i n U. v. The Asia Pacific area covers 60% of the industrial products, 72% of the agricultural product, and 39% of the service transaction in the U.S.. On the other hand, for a long time, the U.S. has left the economic cooperation mechanism of the East Asia, which is not consisttent with the U.S.’s economic plan toward the East Asia.. 28 Zhao Chang Feng and Zuo Xiang Yun, <TPP: China and the U.S. Competition – From China's Perspective>, scid.stanford.edu /.../ TPP, Date: April 2, 2015. (趙長峰、左祥雲，〈TPP：中美之較量——中國的視角〉，scid.stanford.edu/.../TPP，檢索日期:2015 年 4 月 2 日。) 29 Chinese scholars describe US containment strategy: Under the circumstance that global interdependence of Sino-US becomes deeper, Sino-US confrontation and competition focus primarily on "Soft competition and soft confrontation" and "Hard competition and hard fight" secondly, which differ from the US-Soviet competition and confrontation of the Cold War. "Hard completion and hard comfrontation" present on strengthening its military existence around China, which adopts the strategic balance and suppress of the territorial dispute and future concerns of policies between China and its neighboring countries. For instance, when the United States strengthened the relations and cooperation with traditional allies such as Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, at the same time it attracted India andVietnam, as well as the arrangmentment of military in Australia. Zhao Chang Feng and Zuo Xiang Yun <TPP: China and the US of the contest - China's perspective>, scid.stanford.edu /.../ TPP, retrieve Date: April 2, 2015 18.

(26) Under this circumstance, Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) becomes a important way for the U.S. to open the Asia Pacific market, which becomes a key part in the U.S’s economic strategy toward the AsiaPacific area. 30 From the process of agenda setting to the participation of the member state, it’s all based on the U.S. state interest. Construct the U.S. Oriented Asia Pacific New Order TPP is the product generated under the member states of APEC and led by the U.S.. Among the main memebers and newly join members, which are mainly capitalism countries and only Vietnam is the socialism country which forms the crowding out effect. On the other hand, the TPP containment against China and the China led “ASEAN +3” (China, Japan and Soth Korea) make the Asia Pacific into the battlefield for economic transaction. 31 Most of the experts think that the main intention of TPP is for the U.S. to take over the control right of the Asia Pacific region. 32 In the past decades, the East Asia area has formed the free trade area, “ASEAN + 1”, which means the ASEAN country plus China. Since 2008, the economic depression occurred in Europe and the U.S., however China still remains the high economic growth and becomes the main market of the ASEAN market, which is getting the controls the economic situation of East Asia region. 33 In order to change this situation, the U.S. promotes the framework of TPP hoping to expand the organization to recruit new members to replace the model of “ASEAN + N”. 34 As a result, through TPP, the U.S. tried to turn over the disadvantage of the isolation on East Asia economic cooperation, such as “ASEAN + 1”, “ASEAN + 3” and “ASEAN + 6”, which become the target that TPP tried to compete and isolate by the U.S. 35 On the design of TPP, the U.S. strengthened the control in Asia-Pacific region through the economic foundation and systematical power. 36. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. y. Nat. 30. sit. n. al. er. io. Ashley J. Tellis. Balancing without Containment: A U.S. Strategy for Confronting China’s Rise[J]. The WashingtonQuarterly, Vol.36, No.4, 2013. 31Xie Ming Rui, <Taiwan and TPP>, “National Policy Research Foundation”, March 1st, 2012, www.npf.org.tw / post / 2/10427. Retrieve Date: March 6, 2015. (謝明瑞，〈台灣與 TPP〉，《財團法人國家政策研究基金會》，2012 年 3 月 1 日， www.npf.org.tw/post/2/10427。檢索日期:2015 年 3 月 6 日。) 32Zheng Zhu Yuan <U.S. Efforts to Promote TPP's Economic and Strategic Attempt ', "Strait Comment", pp. 252, December 2011, http: //www.haixiainfo.com.tw/252-8328.html, date: 2014 December 8th. (鄭竹園，〈美國全力推動 TPP 的經濟企圖與戰略部署〉，《海峽評論》，第 252 期，2011 年 12 月，http://www.haixiainfo.com.tw/252-8328.html ，檢索日期:2014 年 12 月 8 日。) 33Zheng Zhu Yuan <U.S. Efforts to Promote TPP's Economic and Strategic Attempt ', "Strait Comment", pp. 252, December 2011, http: //www.haixiainfo.com.tw/252-8328.html, date: 2014 December 8th. (鄭竹園，〈美國全力推動 TPP 的經濟企圖與戰略部署〉，《海峽評論》，第 252 期，2011 年 12 月，http://www.haixiainfo.com.tw/252-8328.html ，檢索日期:2014 年 12 月 8 日。) 34 First, in the past five years due to the rise of China, the market continues to expand, and ASEAN countries are competing to seize the Chinese market. The amount of Chinese imports from the ASEAN countries was $ 47.3 billion in 2003, to $ 100 billion in 2008, and it even reached up to 154.5 billion last year. China is also the largest investor in the ASEAN countries. Secondly, even if member states have joined, China still tried hard on eliminating the existing old system, including the management on import and export controls, the administration of foreign investment, and the settlement on domestic interest groups, which are all questions that could not be solved out within short period of time. Zheng Zhu Yuan, <TPP US efforts to promote economic and strategic attempt ', "Strait Review", Vol. 252, December 2011, http: //www.haixiainfo.com.tw/252-8328.html, retrieval date : December 8, 2014 35 Deng Hai Qing, <From the Political Perspective of the U.S. Hegemonic Strategy> "Journal Seek", in 2013 the first five. (鄧海清. 〈從政治視角淺析美國的 TPP 霸權戰略〉，《太平洋學報》，2013 年第 5 期。) 36 Doug Stokes and Richard G. Whitman. TransatlanticTriage？ European and UK“Grand Strategy”after the US Re-balance to Asia[J]. International Affairs, Vol.89, No.5, 2013.. Jinsoo Park. Regional Leadership Dynamics and theEvolution of East Asian Regionalism[J]. Pacific Focus,Vol.27, No.2, 2012 19. Ch. engchi. i n U. v.

(27) Containment against China and the Continuity of the U.S. Hegemony Under the mission of taking over the leadership in Asia Pacific region, in order to reach the leadership and the more stable economic foundation 37, the U.S. strengthened the regulation on the new member recruitment and standards, including intellectual property rights, labor treatment, and environmental protection. New member can’t join TPP without the invitation. At first, China did not be invited; however after the changing attitude of the U.S. who invited China to join, but the condition is that China has to follow the regulation of market and could not manipulate the exchange rate. 38 As for China, before the conclusion of the members in TPP, China has disagreed on the promotion of the U.S. on TPP because the U.S. has set too high standard to follow in certain categories. China suggests that the members in APEC are under different phrase, and therefore the standard should be different. Moreover, for instance “the U.S. asked the member states to lower the tariff under 5% on the environmental products. However, the average tariff in the U.S. is 1.4%, and that in China is 7%. Therefore, if China accepts the condition of 5%, China would yield much more benefit to the U.S.”. As we can see, when the U.S. promoted TPP, China played the role as the representative to provide different voice as the developing countries in Asia Pacific region. 39. 治政大 2-2 Establish TPP as part of Pivot to Asia Strategy 立 The U.S. strategy of “Pivot to Asia” is the strategy aiming at the rising China who replaced the Soviet Union ‧ 國. 學. ‧. to challenge the U.S., which became the bipolar structure in the international community. In the following paragraph, this thesis would review the U.S.’s containment strategy against the rising China, and examine the TPP strategy correspondingly.. n. al. sit er. io. 2-2-1-1Enter the Globe with Economic Soft Power. y. Nat. 2-2-1 The Open China and the Peaceful Rising. i n U. v. In the 80s, Deng Xiaoping the leader of China claimed to end the “War Situation” and started to. Ch. engchi. conduct the “Reform and Open”. He further claimed that “Unless the world outbreaks World War and the invasion against China, otherwise China has to hold the economic development for more than 100 years. China should stick to the economic infrastructure, and conduct the agriculture, industry, national defense, and science to main the national sovereignty, the territory security, and national dignity, which. 37. Du Lan, <Strategic Analysis on the United States Pushing the Trans-Pacific Partnership > "International Studies", 2011. Vol 1. (杜蘭，〈美國力推跨太平洋夥伴關係戰略論析〉《國際問題研究》，2011 年第 1 期。. 38Zheng Zhu Yuan. <US Promote TPP's Economic And Strategic Attempt ', "Strait comment", pp. 252, December 2011, http: //www.haixiainfo.com.tw/252-8328.html, Date: 2014 December 8. (鄭竹園，〈美國全力推動TPP的經濟企圖與戰略部署〉，《海峽評論》，第252期，2011年12月，http://www.haixiainfo.com.tw/252-8328.html ，檢索日期:2014年12月8日。) 39Xie Ming Rui, <Taiwan and TPP>, "National Policy Research Foundation", March 1st, 2012, www.npf.org.tw / post / 2/10427, Date: January 8, 2015. 謝明瑞，〈台灣與TPP〉，《財團法人國家政策研究基金會》，2012年3月1日，www.npf.org.tw/post/2/10427，檢索日期:2015年1月8日。 20.

(28) is the basic principle and the solution to solve the challenge of China. 40” Under the prediction of the world situation, in 1978 the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee, the Chinese authority mentioned the first open basic state policy in modernization of four categories, including industrial modernization, agricultural modernization, national defense modernization, and science modernization. The Chinese authority also conducted the comprehensive reform in the economic development, and tried to move the planned economic system into the market economic system. In 1979, the Chinese authority decided to expand the limitation on export, giving Guangdong and Fujian province special right on conducting foreign economic activity. One year after, the Chinese authority announced Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Shantou and Xiamen as the foreign special economic zone. 41. 政治大. In 1984, the authority further opened 14 coastal cities along Shanghai, and made Bohai Rim area in. 立. Yangtze River, Pearl River, and delta area near Xiamen, Zhangzhou and Quanzhou as the coastal. ‧ 國. 學. economic open zone. 42. These series of reform make the economic development rise up, and influence the international. ‧. community. For instance, in order to provide the needs of the 1.3 billion population domestically on. y. Nat. io. sit. energy and food, China bought the energy and commodities in a great amount, which makes the price. n. al. er. in the international community becomes much higher. Therefore, China has the ability to expand its. i n U. v. influence in the regional and international areas, including East Asia, Africa, Middle East, Middle Asia. Ch. engchi. and even Latin America through the great amount of buying and investment on energy and commodities.. 40. "Selection of Deng Xiaoping," Volume 1, Beijing: People's Publication, October 1993; Chu Shulong, "China's National Strength, National Interests and the Country Strategy," pp. 13.(《鄧小平文選》第 1 卷，北京：人民出版社，1993 年 10 月；楚樹龍，《中國的國家利益國家力量和國家戰略》，頁 13。) 41This take an reference from the experience of Taiwan's economic development, the processing and assembly, joint ventures, which are the main form of foreign trade, and also permit the presence of a small number of foreign-owned enterprises; and learn advanced science and technology and excellent management style. 42 Four opening pilots have got the results in a very short period of time; Shenzhen from a bay village developed into a prosperous city which is not lower than Hong Kong. The remaining three places have become highlights of the the Chinese economy in early 1980. Then the open 14 cities also received more than 10% on annual economic growth. In 1988, China set Hainan Island as a separate province, and opened to the outside world, which has become China's largest open area. At the same time, those opening places also come along with the development of coastal areas to inland areas, stimulating China's economic development. 21.

(29) For the past 25 years from the open and reform, China has increased more than 9% economic growth rate. By the year of 2005, China has ranked the six economic entity around the world followed by the U.S. and Germany and ranked 3rd in the world. By the end of 2004, the European Union, the U.S. and Japan have become the top three partners in Chinese transaction. The rising China makes the world impressive, and once President Bush of the U.S. has said that “the development of China is impressive! 43” and he officially invited Hu Jintao, the leader of China at that moment to attend the G8 meeting in July in British. 44. 2-2-1-2. Become the Great Power through the Peaceful Rising. As the economic power rises, the reflection and the foreign policy has changed as well, which. 政治大. makes the world impressive. For instance, Jiang Zemin claimed that “We are at the turning power of. 立. the old and new century and also a world full of contrary and severe competition. The international. ‧ 國. 學. competition is the competition between the comprehensive national strength, and the key is the competition in science technique. If we failed in science technique, we will be surpassed by others. 45”. ‧. The Chinese regime has recognized that international competition is not only military hard power, but. y. Nat. io. sit. also the science of soft power to consider the competition among the world, which shows that China. n. al. er. must have the thinking with national counterparts. Construction of China and comprehensive national. i n U. v. strength has come to the time that it should is open to the world, and even get recognized in the world. Ch. engchi. to further generates impact on the world, which is not just based on the national glory for pursuing self-requirment of China, but also the expectation from the countries around the world under the lead of the U.S.. This time China builds a multi-polar world system as a strategic goal to promote diplomacy between big powers, multilateral diplomacy and neighborly diplomacy for the strategic means, and keeps the principle not aginast the United States to further establish "partnership" with great powers 43"Xinhua", <Bush: China's Development Is Amazing!> (《新華網》，〈布什: 中國的發展令人驚嘆!〉, http://www.xinhuanet.com/world/2005-06/01/) content-3029501.htm。 44 See "Central News Agency", <China Actively Consider Participating in Meetings of the Industrial Countries> (參見《中央社》，〈中國積極考慮參加八大工業國家集團會議〉，http://news.pchome.com.tw/) crossstraits/cna/20050607/index-20050607215007180387.html。 45 Peng Ji Chao, "National Strategy: China Space Engineering Documentary" Shanghai: Shanghai Literature and Art Publication, December 2005, pp. 17. (彭繼超，《國家戰略：中國載人航天工程紀實》，上海：上海文藝出版社，2005 年 12 月，頁 17。) 22.

(30) and alliances 46 and participate in multilateral international organizations and actively operating 47, and join the international security norms. 48 Such strategic application is mainly since “China threat theory” rised in the mid-1990s flourish in, moderate weak and kindness into the international organization may relieve concerns among other countries.. By 2002, after Hu Jintao became the leader, he tried his best on making sure the peace and development of China; however, the factors influencing peace and development increase. For instance owing to the change in the world military development, the military balance becomes asymmetry, especially between the developing and developed countries. Therefore, President Hu suggests that China should equip itself and gain peace through the reputation and power of itself. Thus after he took. 政治大. the presidency 49, he raised “Peaceful Rise” as the basic principle for China to develop its national goals.. 立. In diplomatic issue, except the continuity of the “Neighborhood Policy” Beijing authority engaged and. ‧ 國. 學. solved the border issues with the neighboring countries as well, including the signing the border agreement with Russia, and negotiation with India on the border concern. On the other hand, in. ‧. transaction, Beijing authority signed “Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic. y. Nat. io. sit. Cooperation between ASEAN and China” and “The Solution Mechanism for Disputes between China. n. al. er. and ASEAN”. Besides, ASEAN and China (10 +1) strengthened the political and economic alliance. i n U. v. through signing the international agreement. 50 Except the agreement of Framework Agreement on. Ch. engchi. Comprehensive Economic Cooperation between ASEAN and China in 2002, both sides decides to. 46During Jiang Zemin presidency, China has established partnerships with several counrtries, including Russia, France, the United States, Canada, European Union, ASEAN, the United Kingdom and Japan. 47With particular emphasis on multilateral international organizations in Asia-Pacific region, such as: Asean Regional Forum (ARF), the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and so on. 48 Such as Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty 49 In November 2002, the Sixteenth National People's Congress, Chinese Communist Party confirmed that two decades before twenty-first century is an important period of strategic opportunities for China's development. During these twenty years, Chinese government has achieved the strategic goals of the maintenance of peace and stability in the external environment, in respect of Chinese economic development, and the establishment of a well-off society. 50This refers to ASEAN and China (ASEAN plus one) to sign a free trade agreement consistent, which is different from the "ASEAN plus one" or "ASEAN plus three" dialogue and cooperation mechanism. The latter refers to the "ASEAN plus one, " which focused on ASEAN as the core (from the ten ASEAN countries and Japan, China, South Korea or other countries held individual leaders meetings during the meeting of ASEAN Plus Three) or the "ASEAN plus three" (ten ASEAN countries annually meet with Japan, China and South Korea in leader meeting). About the background on the formation of a cooperation mechanism and process, see Taiwan Institute of Economic Research "Research of Taiwan’s Solution to the ASEAN- China FTA", 2004, RDEC. 23.