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ANALYSIS OF RESULTS

Overall Situation

The balance of payments of Macao SAR continued to register a surplus in 2010, as reflected in a rise of MOP41.3 billion in foreign exchange reserves (excluding price and exchange rate changes as well as other adjustments) during the year. The overall surplus mainly stemmed from a surplus of MOP96.7 billion in the current account and a net increase of MOP11.1 billion in financial non-reserve assets.

-60,000 -40,000 -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000

2009 2010

(Millions of patacas)

*net change

Chart 1: Balance of Payments, 2009-2010

Current account Capital account Financial non-reserve assets* Reserve assets*

The BOP statement consists of two main groups of accounts:

(i) Current account – which contains goods and services, income and current transfers;

(ii) Capital and financial account – which contains capital and financial flows (both inward and outward), and acquisition or disposal of non-produced, non-financial assets.

Current Account

In 2010, the current account surplus amounted to MOP96.7 billion (equivalent to 42.7% of GDP at current market prices), up significantly from the revised value of MOP54.0 billion (31.7% of GDP) in 2009. The goods account, the income account and current transfers continued to record net outflows of funds in 2010. The surplus in the services account, however, went up with a leap.

Exports of goods dropped by 3.9% whereas imports of goods (f.o.b.) increased by 19.5% compared with 2009. The visible trade deficit thus widened from MOP35.3 billion in 2009 to MOP44.2 billion in 2010. On the other hand, the invisible trade surplus registered an annual growth rate of 53.2%, reaching a record-high of MOP169.7 billion. The increment was mainly attributable to the continuously thriving tourism sector, which pushed exports of travel services up by 53.6%. Net exports of travel services increased from MOP137.5 billion in 2009 to MOP213.2 billion in 2010. Transportation and other services remained in deficit, with the total value of net imports increasing from MOP26.7 billion in 2009 to MOP43.6 billion in 2010. Overall, the trade account recorded a surplus of MOP125.5 billion, compared to a surplus of MOP75.5 billion in 2009.

The income account, which records receipts and payments of investment and employment income, saw a net outflow of MOP23.0 billion in 2010, up from a revised net outflow of MOP14.9 billion in 2009. The increase was mainly attributed to the increase in income earned by foreign direct investors in Macao. Factor income inflows and outflows reached MOP9.3 billion and MOP32.3 billion respectively. The largest item of outflows was earnings of direct investors, which amounted to MOP28.3 billion. Payments of portfolio investment and other investment income added up to MOP3.2 billion.

Current transfers, which include mainly cross-border flows of workers’ remittances as well as donations received/made by local social service organisations with respect to the rest of the world, recorded a decrease in net outflow from MOP6.7 billion in 2009 to MOP5.8 billion in 2010.

Balança de Pagamentos 2010 Balance of Payments 2010

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Capital and Financial Account

The capital and financial account, including official reserve assets, continued to register a net fund outflow, rising from MOP34.7 billion in 2009 to MOP52.2 billion in 2010. In the capital account, the net inflow of capital transfers (mainly migrants’

transfers) plunged to MOP158.4 million from MOP5.1 billion in 2009. The large contraction was mainly due to the significant drop in the number of applications to be processed under the Investment Residency Scheme, which has been suspended since April 2007. Meanwhile, the net outflow of funds related to financial non-reserve assets decreased from MOP22.9 billion (equivalent to 13.4% of GDP) in 2009 to MOP11.1 billion (4.9% of GDP).

Under the dual effect of local enterprises’ repatriation of direct investment abroad and the injection of direct investment in Macao by foreign corporations, the net inflow of funds generated from direct investment rebounded significantly in 2010. On the other hand, net outflows of portfolio investment and financial derivatives decreased notably.

Having contracted for two consecutive years, inward foreign direct investment (including property investment by non-residents) rebounded markedly from MOP1.4 billion in 2009 to MOP27.8 billion in 2010. On the contrary, resident investors reduced their direct investment abroad by MOP2.5 billion. As a result, the direct investment account recorded a net inflow of MOP30.3 billion, as against a net inflow of MOP1.5 billion in 2009.

-50,000 -40,000 -30,000 -20,000 -10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000

2009 2010

(Millions of patacas)

Chart 3: Net Changes in the Financial Account, 2009-2010

Direct investment Portf olio investment Financial derivatives Other investment Reserve assets

The net outflow of portfolio investment dropped from MOP13.4 billion in 2009 to MOP6.7 billion in 2010, of which non-bank private sectors registered a net outflow of MOP11.9 billion while the general government and the banking sector registered net inflows of MOP1.0 billion and MOP4.2 billion respectively. Meanwhile, the net outflow of financial derivatives fell from MOP121.7 million to MOP64.7 million.

Other investment continued to record a net outflow of funds, rising from MOP10.8 billion in 2009 to MOP34.6 billion in 2010. By sector, banks contributed MOP19.5 billion to the net outflow while the general government and other sectors together generated a net outflow of MOP15.1 billion. By component, loans granted abroad increased by MOP22.4 billion in 2010, while external loans extended to the SAR

Balança de Pagamentos 2010 Balance of Payments 2010

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shrank by MOP10.5 billion. Assets in currency and deposits rose by MOP46.6 billion while non-resident deposits with the local banking sector soared by MOP55.8 billion.

Other external assets increased by about MOP10.0 billion whereas other external liabilities fell by MOP51.8 million in 2010.

Adding up all types of investment in the financial account, the banking sector recorded a net outflow of MOP14.2 billion in 2010, compared to a net outflow of MOP24.5 billion in 2009, while the general government and other sectors together showed a net inflow of MOP3.1 billion, up from a net inflow of MOP1.7 billion in 2009.

The BOP surplus was fully reflected in the official reserve assets held by the Monetary Authority of Macao, which surged from MOP146.6 billion at end-2009 to MOP190.2 billion at end-2010. Excluding the effects of price and exchange rate changes as well as other adjustments, official reserve assets soared by MOP41.3 billion in 2010, as against an increase of MOP16.9 billion in 2009. The international reserves as at end-2010 were equivalent to a value of approximately 20 months of imports of goods and services, revealing that Macao had a very strong external position to meet external claims on its financial assets.



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106 MOP 2006r 2007r 2008r 2009r 2010@

1. Current Account 19,497.5 34,550.2 32,357.5 53,957.6 96,698.0

Goods -26,053.1 -37,731.6 -41,107.9 -35,275.4 -44,183.1

Services 59,889.0 78,085.2 96,821.2 110,747.9 169,657.7

Income -12,459.0 -1,242.0 -16,906.4 -14,858.1 -22,984.6

Current Transfers -1,879.4 -4,561.4 -6,449.5 -6,656.8 -5,791.9

2. Capital and Financial Account -19,469.3 30,461.6 11,742.0 -34,684.9 -52,186.3

Capital Account 3,508.3 2,560.3 3,155.7 5,059.5 156.8

Financial Account* -22,977.6 27,901.4 8,586.3 -39,744.3 -52,343.1

Financial non-reserve assets (net change) -6,509.2 56,083.0 26,827.0 -22,859.7 -11,069.6

Direct Investment 17,048.1 40,280.0 25,167.3 1,488.1 30,338.7

Portfolio Investment -11,479.1 -10,054.3 -11,134.8 -13,376.3 -6,742.5

Financial Derivatives** -1,694.4 386.1 -235.0 -121.7 -64.7

Other Investment -10,383.8 25,471.2 13,029.4 -10,849.8 -34,601.0

Reserve Assets*** -16,468.4 -28,181.6 -18,240.7 -16,884.6 -41,273.5

3. Errors and Omissions -28.2 -65,011.8 -44,099.5 -19,272.7 -44,511.7 Overall Balance of Payments 16,468.4 28,181.6 18,240.7 16,884.6 41,273.5

Notes: * "+" represents an increase in external liabilities or a decrease in external assets, indicating an inflow of funds;

"-" represents a decrease in external liabilities or an increase in external assets, indicating an outflow of funds.

** According to the latest revision of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), financial derivatives are presented as an individual item of the financial account.

*** Excluding price and exchange rate changes as well as other adjustments.

Table 1. Balance of Payments: Macao SAR

Table 2. Balance of Payments Sub-account Components: Current Account

(106 MOP)

Standard Components 2006r 2007r 2008r 2009r 2010@

Current Account 19,497.5 34,550.2 32,357.5 53,957.6 96,698.0

116,435.7 151,014.5 173,313.8 169,058.9 248,214.7 -96,938.2 -116,464.3 -140,956.3 -115,101.3 -151,516.6

Goods -26,053.1 -37,731.6 -41,107.9 -35,275.4 -44,183.1

20,478.1 20,447.1 16,827.9 8,766.6 8,425.1 -46,531.2 -58,178.7 -57,935.8 -44,042.0 -52,608.2

Services 59,889.0 78,085.2 96,821.2 110,747.9 169,657.7

83,685.0 114,124.5 142,435.2 150,271.2 229,687.3 -23,796.0 -36,039.3 -45,613.9 -39,523.3 -60,029.6 3,660.2 3,801.8 3,577.7 2,805.3 4,004.0 -2,034.2 -2,464.5 -2,257.2 -1,893.2 -2,403.1 78,007.9 107,718.9 135,927.3 144,848.6 222,498.9 -4,602.8 -5,611.1 -6,688.3 -7,353.1 -9,253.0 2,016.9 2,603.8 2,930.2 2,617.4 3,184.4 -17,159.0 -27,963.6 -36,668.4 -30,277.0 -48,373.4

Income -12,459.0 -1,242.0 -16,906.4 -14,858.1 -22,984.6

11,407.7 15,634.5 13,320.7 9,193.1 9,327.8 -23,866.8 -16,876.4 -30,227.1 -24,051.2 -32,312.4

~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Compensation of employees, payments -1,204.6 -1,351.8 -1,570.1 -969.2 -749.0

11,407.7 15,634.5 13,320.7 9,193.1 9,327.8

451.7 569.6 -225.7 496.7 735.1

126.7 72.2 12.1 129.1 174.3

318.8 491.0 -245.0 369.3 562.6

6.1 6.4 7.1 -1.7 -1.8

2,666.7 3,992.2 4,260.4 3,545.4 3,616.5

468.2 500.9 847.7 751.4 1,032.5

2,013.8 3,098.4 3,164.2 2,734.7 2,426.9

Income on money market instruments 184.8 393.0 248.6 59.4 157.1

8,289.3 11,072.7 9,286.0 5,151.0 4,976.2 -22,662.2 -15,524.6 -28,657.0 -23,082.0 -31,563.4 -19,752.7 -11,073.4 -21,738.2 -19,636.4 -28,330.9 -6,404.1 -4,543.6 -10,140.8 -12,367.9 -9,675.5 -13,314.9 -6,490.3 -11,532.3 -7,135.9 -18,640.1

-33.8 -39.5 -65.1 -132.6 -15.3

-97.2 -335.6 -719.3 -378.6 -238.1

-65.6 -136.2 -421.1 -277.8 -157.7

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3.1

-31.6 -199.4 -298.2 -100.7 -77.2

-2,812.2 -4,115.6 -6,199.5 -3,067.0 -2,994.5 -1,879.4 -4,561.4 -6,449.5 -6,656.8 -5,791.9

864.8 808.5 730.0 827.9 774.5

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

864.8 808.5 730.0 827.9 774.5

-2,744.1 -5,369.9 -7,179.5 -7,484.7 -6,566.4 -21.5 -25.0 -741.4 -2,938.5 -2,654.2 -2,722.7 -5,344.8 -6,438.0 -4,546.2 -3,912.2 Other sectors

Payments

General government Other sectors

Income on bonds and notes

Income on money market instruments Other investment income

Current transfers Receipts

General government

Dividends and distributed branch profits

Reinvested earnings and undistributed branch profits Reinvested earnings and undistributed branch profits

Income on debt (interest) Portfolio investment income

Income on equity Portfolio investment income

Income on equity

Income on bonds and notes Other investment income Investment income, payments

Direct investment income Transportation, imports Travel, exports Travel, imports Other services, exports Other services, imports

Receipts

Dividends and distributed branch profits Income on debt (interest)

Credit Debit Exports

Exports Imports Imports

Transportation, exports

Payments

Compensation of employees, receipts Investment income, receipts

Direct investment income

Balança de Pagamentos 2010 Balance of Payments 2010

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Table 3. Balance of Payments Sub-account Components: Capital and Financial Account

(106 MOP)

Standard Components 2006r 2007r 2008r 2009r 2010@

Capital and Financial Account -19,469.3 30,461.6 11,742.0 -34,684.9 -52,186.3

Capital and financial non-reserve assets (net change) -3,000.9 58,643.3 29,982.7 -17,800.3 -10,912.8

Capital Account 3,508.3 2,560.3 3,155.7 5,059.5 156.8

Capital transfers 3,509.2 2,600.5 3,316.3 5,062.5 158.4

General government 0.0 0.0 59.6 0.0 0.0

Other sectors 3,509.2 2,600.5 3,375.9 5,062.5 158.4

Nonproduced, nonfinancial assets -0.9 -40.2 -160.6 -3.0 -1.6

Financial Account -22,977.6 27,901.4 8,586.3 -39,744.3 -52,343.1

Financial non-reserve assets (net change) -6,509.2 56,083.0 26,827.0 -22,859.7 -11,069.6

Direct investment 17,048.1 40,280.0 25,167.3 1,488.1 30,338.7

Direct investment abroad -4,099.2 -186.6 592.5 83.6 2,497.1

Equity capital 849.6 -31.5 8.3 -511.8 -26.9

Claims on affiliated enterprises 849.6 -31.5 8.3 -511.8 -26.9

Liabilities to affiliated enterprises 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Reinvested earnings -318.8 -491.0 245.0 -369.3 -562.6

Other capital -4,629.9 335.9 339.3 964.7 3,086.6

Claims on affiliated enterprises -4,624.1 -38.6 181.2 846.4 3,080.2 Liabilities to affiliated enterprises -5.8 374.5 158.2 118.3 6.4 Direct investment in Macao 21,147.3 40,466.6 24,574.8 1,404.5 27,841.5

Equity capital 1,385.9 3,311.5 5,446.8 339.9 1,355.8

Claims on direct investors 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Liabilities to direct investors 1,385.9 3,311.5 5,446.8 339.9 1,355.8

Reinvested earnings 13,314.9 6,490.3 11,532.3 7,135.9 18,579.7

Other capital 6,446.5 30,664.8 7,595.8 -6,071.2 7,906.0

Claims on direct investors -1,176.8 -1,802.7 -7,208.4 4,772.4 -587.1 Liabilities to direct investors 7,623.3 32,467.5 14,804.2 -10,843.6 8,493.1 Portfolio investment -11,479.1 -10,054.3 -11,134.8 -13,376.3 -6,742.5

Assets -11,478.4 -10,056.8 -11,157.8 -13,365.5 -8,057.8

Equity securities -1,706.7 -11,861.5 -6,382.0 -8,272.1 -5,280.4

1.2 -471.1 -716.9 -112.0 -71.9

Banks 160.4 90.2 -64.5 36.4 -0.5

Other sectors -1,868.3 -11,480.6 -5,600.6 -8,196.5 -5,208.1

Debt securities -9,771.7 1,804.7 -4,775.8 -5,093.4 -2,777.3

Bonds and notes -10,509.7 2,926.4 3,149.3 -8,345.5 -2,280.8

General government -1,096.7 -946.4 -482.6 -395.9 1,092.5

Banks -5,030.7 5,781.8 7,404.4 -6,764.8 1,376.4

Other sectors -4,382.2 -1,908.9 -3,772.5 -1,184.7 -4,749.6

Money market instruments 738.0 -1,121.7 -7,925.1 3,252.1 -496.5

General government 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Banks -185.6 -911.3 -1,646.7 3,185.3 1,484.6

Other sectors 923.6 -210.4 -6,278.4 66.8 -1,981.1

Liabilities -0.8 2.5 23.1 -10.8 1,315.2

Equity securities -0.8 2.5 23.1 -10.8 10.3

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Banks 0.0 0.0 0.0 -7.5 0.0

Other sectors -0.8 2.5 23.1 -3.3 10.3

General government

General government

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