Conclusion

Based on the model simulation of this study, the author found out that the two main factors will affect the development of the solar PV system in Taiwan.

One is that the Feed-in Tariff, including how long the contract duration is and the lapse rate of purchase rate. The other is that, the R & D input will affects the cost of system, but it is still ineffective on it. Therefore, the government has to plan the subsidies for more projects to support the industry. In this section, the author will discuss about the barriers, challenges and the key factors of the solar energy development in Taiwan. Also, the author tried to amend the policy direction to improve the willingness of the installation by the managerial implications to government.

5.1.1 Taiwan’s barriers and challenges of solar energy development

This study focused on the Taiwanese solar PV system development and developed a conceptual framework to identify the relationships among the government, the industries and the public. According to the model described in chapter 4, we can figure out that the development of solar PV systems has many features, including (1) for stimulating the public to install the PV systems, the government’s investment is still not enough and sufficiently independent,

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than contradiction resisted the installed willingness of development;(2) there is still restriction for the cost of PV system with R & D investment and installed capacity. It may be affected by the export-related and have not yet reached economies of scale; and (3) compared with other countries, the policy of solar energy is still not mature enough.

According to the references from Chapter 2 and the simulation in this study, the subsidies are the key factor for the solar energy development. It still has the problem of inadequate incentive to purchase rates of FIT. Also, the solar PV system cost is higher than current available, so there is still space for improving the technology development. Based on the simulation, the R&D input will affect the cost of system, so the government programs should include solar energy technology research and development as well. Therefore, the government’s solar energy policies must be clear and effective so as to encourage the public.

5.1.2 The Key Factors of the Development of Solar Energy in Taiwan

1. The effect of Feed-in Tariff

Through the simulation and analysis in chapter 5, the FIT is a key factor to the development of solar energy in Taiwan. First, the buy-back contract of electricity will affect the installed willingness. If the contract is extended, the ratio of willingness to install will become higher. Second, the lapse rate of FIT is important for the public to consider whether install the solar PV systems.

According to the simulation, if the lapse rate started immediately, the installed willingness will decline gradually before 2019. It is inconsistent with the objective of the maximum amount of BOE.

2. The effect of R & D input

According to the simulation, the R & D input is another key factor for solar energy system development. When the R & D input increased, it will affect the cost of solar PV system to decrease. Hence, the willingness to install will be affected. In accordance with the existing policies for the renewable energy, they are mainly for large-scale renewable energy generation, and on the basis of the entire renewable energy. Therefore, the distribution of the different renewable energy is still not clear. The solar energy is one of the two major developments of the renewable energy in Taiwan. However, it still lacks the separate policies or projects to support. It also lacks of the separate projects for the solar energy on the Renewable Energy Fund and Renewable Energy Development Fund.

5.2 Managerial Implications

1. The adjustment of Feed-in Tariff

In order to reach the Grid Parity and measure the possibility of technology advances and the cost of investment changes, the government must to carry out the lapse rate. However, if it wants to achieve the objective of the long-term

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development and slow down the decline of the installed willingness, it needs to delay the lapse rate. For this reason, Taiwan's government should plan a long-term subsidy program and the period of installation goal.

2. R & D investment

For the R & D investment, it is still of little use on the solar energy and lack of the clear independent plan of R & D investment in solar energy.

Consequently, the solar energy R & D project should be independent, because the current policy for the investment in solar R & D is too vague and insufficient. Hence, the lack of the incentives for solar energy and export-related industries will limit the system cost reduction. If it wants to reduce the cost of system to stimulate the installed willingness, the government needs to input more R & D investment, and encourage the public to install PV system to reach the scale economy.

3. Clear and independent policy and project for solar energy

Based on the above, we can find out that although there are many policies and projects on renewable energy development, it is still vague and insufficiently independent for the solar energy.Because the solar energy is one of the key renewable energy of development, the government needs to plan a long-term development more carefully and more maturely to support that. Also , it has to consider that the difference between Taiwan and Germany to adjust and amend the policies.

5.3 Limitations

Because all of the policies are for total renewable energy, it is difficult to separate the solar energy from them, and the author has to collect the data by calculating the public government’s data from. Furthermore, the development of renewable energy began in about 2009, and it is the minimum of the development before 2008. Therefore, the choice of indicators and the data collected of each variable have a certain degree of difficulty in this study.

Because of the willingness to install is difficult to measure and the secondary data is difficult to collect, the study based on other literature.

The study did not discuss the factors of export, the effect of other alternative fuel, the learning and growth dimension of solar energy industry and the electric price. Therefore, the relationship between the two variables is not obviously related. It may necessary to find out other related variables to link with. The study maybe ignores the others variables in the solar energy development.

5.4 Suggestions for Future Research

Because the development of solar energy began in the past three years, the secondary data is too difficult to collect.Based on the limitations of this study, the author suggested that the future researchers can amend the model, the

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design and the application of this study in detailed, such as the R & D staff input and generate efficiency etc.

On the other hand, the author cannot guarantee and confirm that whether the development trend in the real environment is consistent with our simulation.

Thus, the future researchers can try to test, verify and compare the real development of this industry with the simulation result of this study.

Finally, because of the time limitation, the installed willingness is measured by another literature. Maybe the future researchers can try to use the questionnaires or interviews to measure the installed willingness more accurately.

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Appendix I

The Data and Sources of Indicators

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Data Source

53 67 81 67 88 02 10 25 11 50 Table of Feed-in

Tarrif (NT dollars)

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 10.138

2

Taipower

Table of Capacity Installed (Kw)

100 200 300 500 600 1000 1400 2400 5600 9500 Bureau of Energy, Ministry of Economic A

ffairs Table of Output

(Kw)

2000 4000 8000 17000 39000 88000 170000 377000 854000 150300 0

Bureau of Energy, Ministry of Economic A

ffairs

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Appendix II

The FIT of Solar Energy

Type Classification Level of Installed Capacity The FIT Rate (2009)

Solar Energy

ROOF 1Kw~10Kw 10.3185

10Kw~100Kw 9.1799

100Kw~500Kw 8.8241

500Kw 7.9701

Ground 1Kw~ 7.3297

Appendix III

The Cost Structure of Solar PV System

Items Specific Weight Items Specific Weight

Solar Energy Cells Module

35％

Converter

5％

Structure of System

10％

Monitoring System

10％

Distribution Materials

5％

Administrative Expenses

5％

Design and Construction

12.5％

Tax

5％

Labor Costs

7.5％

Operating Expenses

5％

在文檔中 太陽能供需政策之系統動態模擬-以台灣為例 (頁 105-0)