• 沒有找到結果。

Chapter 5 Conclusion and Recommendation

5.3 Limitations

Because all of the policies are for total renewable energy, it is difficult to separate the solar energy from them, and the author has to collect the data by calculating the public government’s data from. Furthermore, the development of renewable energy began in about 2009, and it is the minimum of the development before 2008. Therefore, the choice of indicators and the data collected of each variable have a certain degree of difficulty in this study.

Because of the willingness to install is difficult to measure and the secondary data is difficult to collect, the study based on other literature.

The study did not discuss the factors of export, the effect of other alternative fuel, the learning and growth dimension of solar energy industry and the electric price. Therefore, the relationship between the two variables is not obviously related. It may necessary to find out other related variables to link with. The study maybe ignores the others variables in the solar energy development.

5.4 Suggestions for Future Research

Because the development of solar energy began in the past three years, the secondary data is too difficult to collect.Based on the limitations of this study, the author suggested that the future researchers can amend the model, the

100

design and the application of this study in detailed, such as the R & D staff input and generate efficiency etc.

On the other hand, the author cannot guarantee and confirm that whether the development trend in the real environment is consistent with our simulation.

Thus, the future researchers can try to test, verify and compare the real development of this industry with the simulation result of this study.

Finally, because of the time limitation, the installed willingness is measured by another literature. Maybe the future researchers can try to use the questionnaires or interviews to measure the installed willingness more accurately.

Reference

Trappey J.C., and Charles T., and Hsiao C.T. , and Jerry J.R., and Lie, S.J. , and Chen W.P. (2012). An evaluation model for low carbon island policy:The case of Taiwan’s green transportation policy. Energy Policy, (45), pp.510-515.

Berger, W., “Catalysts for the Diffusion of Photovoltaics—A Review of

Selected Programmes,” Progress in PVs: Research and Applications, Vol.9, no. 2, 2001, pp.145–160.

Bhandari, R., & Stadler, I. (2009). Grid parity analysis of solar photovoltaic

systems in Germany using experience curves. Solar Energy.

Coyle, R. G. (1996). System dynamics modelling: A practical approach.

London: Chapman & Hall.

Cesta, J. R. and Decker, P. G., (1978). Speeding solar energy

commercialization: A delphi research of marketplace factors. Journal of Business Research, 6, pp. 311-328.

Chou, T. C. (2009). Willingness-to-pay for Household Photovoltaic Systems

about Leasing contrast to Purchasing and Influential factors. Master’s

thesis, Department of Resources Engineering, National Cheng Kung University.

Chen, Y. C. (2010). A System Dynamics Diffusion Model for Solar Energy.

Master’s thesis, Institute of Information Management, National Cheng Kung University. Master’s thesis, Institute of Law in Science &

Technology National Yunlin University of Science & Technology in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Law In

102

Science & Technology Law.

Chih, S,Y. (2011).

The Research of Renewable Energy Promotion Policies and Legislations in U.S.- Focus on RPS.

Forrester, J. W. (1991). System dynamics and the lessons of 35 years. In K. B.

D. Greene (Ed.), The systemic basis of policy making in the 1990s.

Boston: MIT.

EPIA (2009). Solar Photovoltaic Electricity: A mainstream power source in

Europe by 2020. European Photovoltaic Industry Association.

http://www.epia.org/publications/photovoltaic-publications-global-market-outlook.html

Forrester, J. W., & Senge, P. M. (1979). Tests for building confidence in system

dynamics models. Cambridge: System Dynamics Group, Sloan School

of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Faiers, A. and Neame, C., 2006. Consumer attitudes towards domestic solar

power system. Energy Policy, 34 (14), pp. 1797-1806.

Ford, A. (1998). System dynamics and the electric power industry. Sysem

Dynamic Review. 13(1), 57–85.

Goett, A., Hudson, K. and Train, K. (2002), “Customers’ Choice Among Retail Energy Suppliers: The Willingness-to-Pay for Service Attribute,”

AAGAssociates, and Department of Economics University of California, Berkeley

.

Han, Z. (2002). System Dynamics - The Key to Explore the Dynamic

Complexity. Taipei: Hwa Tai Publishing.

Hsieh, C. H. (1980). System Dynamics - Theory, Methods and Applications.

Taipei: Chung Hsing Management Consultant.

Huang, J. (2010). Grid Parity Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic Systems in

Taiwan. Assistant Research Fellow, Taiwan Institute of Economic

Research.

Hsu, C. Y. (2011).

Using System Dynamics on the Internet Free Concept Marketing: An Example of Pop Music Industry in Taiwan. , Department of

Asia-Pacific Industrial and Business Management, National University of Kaohsiung.

Harmon, C. (2000). Experience curves of photovoltaic technology. Laxenburg,

IIASA, pp, 17.

Hirschmann, W. B., (1964), “Learning Curve,” Chemical Engineering, Vol. 71, No. 7, pp. 95-100.

Isoard, S. and Soria, A., (2001). Technical change dynamics: evidence from the emerging renewable energy technologies, Energy Economics, Vol. 23, No.

6, pp. 619–636.

IEA PVPS, (2009). Survey Report of Selected IEA Countries Between 1992 and

2008.

Kaplan, A. W., 1998. From passive to active about solar electricity: Innovation decision process and photovoltaic interest generation. Technovation, 19 (8), pp. 467-481.

Lee, Y. L. (2002). Dynamic analysis of National Innovation Systems Model - A

Case Study of Taiwan's Integrated Circuit Industry. Ph. D., University of

Manchester, Britain.

Lin, S. H. (2011). Identifying the Adoption Factors of Photovoltaic Systems

from Individual and Organizational Perspectives. Master’s thesis,

Graduate Institute of Management of Technology, Feng Chia University.

Ma, K.H. (2009). A Study on the Supply-Demand Model of Photovotaic

104

Industry and the Feasibility of reaching Grid Parity. Master’s thesis,

Master of Business Adminstration of National Cheng Kung University.

Masini, A., & Frankl, P. (2003). Forecasting the diffusion of photovoltaic systems in southern Europe* 1:: A learning curve approach. Technological

Forecasting and Social Change, 70(1), 39-65.

Njeri, W. (2005). Solar home system electrification as a viable technology option for Africa’s development. Energy Policy, (35), pp.6-14.

Oliver, M. and Jackson, T. The Market for Solar Photovoltaics. Energy Policy, (27),pp.371-385.

Rogers, E. (1995). Diffusion of innovation,The Free Press New York.

Sterman, J. D. (2000). Business dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a

complex world. Boston: Irwin/McGraw-Hill.

Timilsina, R., Lefevre, T. and Shrestha, S., “Financing Solar Thermal

Technologies under DSM Programs; An Innovative Approach to PromoteRenewable energy,” International Journal of Energy Research, Vol. 24,no. 6, 2000, pp. 503–510.

Wang, C,S. (2011). Project Evaluation: the Feasibility of Promoting

KaohsiungBecome a Solar City.

Master’s thesis, Department of Asia-Pacific Industrial and Business Management, National University of Kaohsiung.

Wander, J. (2006). Stimulating the diffusion of photovoltaic systems: A behavioural perspective. Energy Policy. (34),pp.1935-1943.

Wang, M.J. (2011). Retrospect and Prospect of the PV industry. Industry &

Technology Intelligence ServiceSeminar Presentation.

Yang, S. C. (2011). Using Balanced Scorecard and System Dynamics in

Exploring the Performance of Taiwan's Pharmaceutical Industry. Master’s

thesis, Department of Asia-Pacific Industrial and Business Management, National University of Kaohsiung.

Website

BOE (Bureau of Energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs) http://www.moeaboe.gov.tw/

Taipower Company

http://www.taipower.com.tw/

106

Appendix I

The Data and Sources of Indicators

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Data Source

53 67 81 67 88 02 10 25 11 50 Table of Feed-in

Tarrif (NT dollars)

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 10.138

2

Taipower

Table of Capacity Installed (Kw)

100 200 300 500 600 1000 1400 2400 5600 9500 Bureau of Energy, Ministry of Economic A

ffairs Table of Output

(Kw)

2000 4000 8000 17000 39000 88000 170000 377000 854000 150300 0

Bureau of Energy, Ministry of Economic A

ffairs

108

Appendix II

The FIT of Solar Energy

Type Classification Level of Installed Capacity The FIT Rate (2009)

Solar Energy

ROOF 1Kw~10Kw 10.3185

10Kw~100Kw 9.1799

100Kw~500Kw 8.8241

500Kw 7.9701

Ground 1Kw~ 7.3297

Appendix III

The Cost Structure of Solar PV System

Items Specific Weight Items Specific Weight

Solar Energy Cells Module

35%

Converter

5%

Structure of System

10%

Monitoring System

10%

Distribution Materials

5%

Administrative Expenses

5%

Design and Construction

12.5%

Tax

5%

Labor Costs

7.5%

Operating Expenses

5%

相關文件