Table A.3.4 Forecast and actual change of policy cycle turning point (full range)
days prior to FOMCmeeting
n
11n
21n
12n
221d 106 15 13 46
2d 108 13 16 43
3d 109 12 17 42
4d 103 18 19 40
1w 104 17 22 37
2w 99 22 21 38
3w 94 27 21 38
4w 94 27 22 37
5w 90 31 18 41
6w 85 36 21 38
2m 60 61 16 43
3m 49 69 15 44
4m 37 81 17 41
Table A.3.5 Forecast and actual change of policy cycle turning point (pre 1994/2)
days prior to FOMCmeeting
n
11n
21n
12n
221d 20 11 9 18
2d 22 9 10 17
3d 21 10 10 17
4d 19 12 11 16
1w 21 10 12 15
2w 17 14 11 16
3w 15 16 12 15
4w 13 18 11 16
5w 14 17 7 20
6w 14 17 8 19
2m 6 25 6 21
3m 9 19 5 22
4m 5 23 7 19
Table A.3.6 Forecast and actual change of policy cycle turning point (after 1994/2)
days prior to FOMCmeeting
n
11n
21n
12n
221d 86 4 4 28
2d 86 4 6 26
3d 88 2 7 25
4d 84 6 8 24
1w 83 7 10 22
2w 82 8 10 22
3w 79 11 9 23
4w 81 9 11 21
5w 76 14 11 21
6w 71 19 13 19
2m 54 36 10 22
3m 40 50 10 22
4m 32 58 10 22
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