Chapter 5 Conclusions and future work
5.2 Different climate regulation of deforestation fire between two types of El Niño
The 2015 El Niño has been confirmed to be the first EP El Niño in the tropical Pacific since 2006. Figures 4.5c and 4.5d show that the evolutions of its upper-level VP and SST anomalies from August to October are similar to the evolutions during the two previous EP El Niño events. Moreover, fire occurrence in 2015 in Borneo and surrounding regions of Indonesia such as Sumatra and Papua are remarkably similar to what were observed in 1997 and 2006. Fire season in 2015 extends well into November, although heavy rains have been reported on October 26th in Kalimantan, and substantially lowers the number of satellite active fire detections (van der Werf, 2015).
While the general community relies mostly on the strength of the 2015 El Niño to explain the associated anomalous fire activity, we suggest that it is the central location of the SST anomalies associated with this El Niño event that should be emphasized for the 2015 Borneo fire event. Thus, projecting the location of El Niño events might be more important than projecting their strength for fire management in southern Borneo
since there is a tendency for large Borneo fires to occur during the EP than CP type of El Niño events.
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Figures
Figure 1.1 Schematic diagram of the enhanced convection over the deforested area nearby the forest (Anthes, 1984; Lawrence and Vandecar, 2015).
Figure 1.2 Annual net change in forest area during the 1990-2015 period. From the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
Figure 1.3 Terra MODIS enhanced vegetation index (EVI) trend during the period 2001-2013. The shaded areas indicate significance at the 95% confidence level.
Figure 2.1 Schematic diagram of the representation of land surface cover types in the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4.0). From CLM website (http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/models/clm/surface.heterogeneity.html).
Figure 2.2 Percentage of the vegetation types of rainforest (broadleaf evergreen tropical tree and broadleaf deciduous tropical tree). The black box indicates Maritime Continent.
Figure 2.3 (a) Annual mean precipitation in CESM control run. (b) TRMM (TMPA3B43) precipitation climatology (averaged from 1998 to 2015).
Figure 3.1 Difference between the deforestation experimental run and the control run in annual mean (a) surface latent heat flux, (b) surface sensible heat flux, (c) clear-sky net shortwave flux at surface, (d) net shortwave flux and downward longwave flux at surface, (e) upward longwave flux at surface, and (f) surface temperature. Dotted areas indicate p < 0.05.
Figure 3.2 Same as Figure 3.1 but for annual mean wind speed at 10m above the surface.
Figure 3.3 Same as Figure 3.1 but for annual mean (a) canopy transpiration, (b) canopy evaporation, (c) ground evaporation.
Figure 3.4 Same as Figure 3.1 but for annual mean (a) precipitation, (b) surface latent heat flux, (c) vertically integrated horizontal moisture advection, and (d) vertically integrated vertical moisture advection.
Figure 3.5 Same as Figure 3.1 but for annual mean (a) thermodynamic component and (b) dynamic component of vertically integrated vertical moisture advection.
Figure 3.6 Difference between the deforestation experimental run (DEF) and the control run (CTR) in annual mean (a) vertical velocity profile over land and ocean and (b) specific humidity profile over land and ocean.
Figure 3.7 Same as Figure 3.1 but for annual mean convective precipitation from Zhang-McFarlane (ZM) deterministic deep convective scheme.
Figure 3.8 Same as Figure 3.6 but for annual mean MSE profile over land.
Figure 3.9 Same as Figure 3.1 but for annual mean low level moisture convergence (integrated from surface to 900 hPa).
Figure 3.10 Schematic diagram of how deforestation influences precipitation.
Figure 3.11 Longitude-pressure cross section of the vertical velocity difference between the deforestation experimental run and the control run (averaged between 10°S to 10°N).
The shaded areas indicate p < 0.1.
Figure 4.1 (a) Satellite image of the Maritime Continent and Borneo with area studied delineated by the yellow box (Map created using a Google Maps: Imagery ©2016 TerraMetrics; Map data ©2016 Google). (b) The climatological precipitation in southern Borneo averaged from 1998 to 2010. The shaded area represents the region within one standard deviation of the climatology. (c) Interannual evolution of the southern Borneo fire pixel count and precipitation in October. Types of El Niño events and intensities (based on Niño3.4 in October) are indicated at the bottom of the figure. (d) Relationship between southern Borneo fire pixel count and precipitation in October. The blue curve shows an exponential relationship with r2=0.93, p<0.001.
100E 110E 120E 130E
Figure 4.2 Seasonality of precipitation over southern Borneo during five El Niño events (1997, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009). The climatology shown by the black dashed line is calculated using data for the period 1998 to 2010. The shaded area represents the region within one standard deviation of the climatology. Data sources include (a) PREC/L and (b) TRMM (TMPA3B43) (excluding the 1997 El Niño event and with 2015 data).
Precipitation (mm/month)
Figure 4.3 Seasonality of fire pixel count over southern Borneo during five El Niño events (1997, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009). The climatology shown by the black dashed line is calculated using data for the period 1998 to 2010. The shaded area represents the region within one standard deviation of the climatology. Data sources include (a) ATSR and (b) MODIS (excluding the 1997 El Niño event and with 2015 data).
Fire Pixel Count
Figure 4.4 (a) Seasonality of the fire pixel count over southern Borneo. The climatology shown by the black dashed line is calculated using data for the period 1998 to 2010. All El Niño composites are shown by the green line, while the red line is for the CP El Niño composite (2002, 2004, and 2009), and the blue line is for EP El Niño composite (1997 and 2006). The shaded area represents the region within 95% (dark gray) and 99% (light gray) confidence intervals for monthly mean. (b) Same as (a), but for monthly
Figure 4.5 (a) Longitude-time evolution of 250 hPa velocity potential difference between the EP El Niño composite and the CP El Niño composite averaged between 5°N and 5°S from July to October. (b) Same as (a), but for sea surface temperature. (c) Longitude-time evolution of the 250 hPa velocity potential difference between 2015 and CP El Niño composite averaged between 5°N and 5°S from July to October. (d) Same as (c), but for sea surface temperature.
250 hPa VPA EP(1997,2006)−CP(2002,2004,2009)
120EJ 150E 180 150W 120W 90W
A
120EJ 150E 180 150W 120W 90W
A
Figure 4.6 Difference between the EP El Niño composite (i.e., 1997, 2006, and 2015) and the CP El Niño composite (i.e., 2002, 2004, and 2009) in (a) 250 hPa velocity potential and (b) 500 hPa omega from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, and (c) GPCP precipitation averaged from July to October.
250 hPa VPA EP−CP (JASO)
Figure 4.7 (a) Longitude-time evolution of sea surface temperature difference between the EP El Niño simulations composite and the CP El Niño simulations composite averaged between 5°N and 5°S from July to October. (b) Same as (a), but for the 200 hPa velocity potential. Dotted areas indicate p < 0.05.
SSTA EP run−CP run
120EJ 150E 180 150W 120W 90W
A
120EJ 150E 180 150W 120W 90W
A
Figure 5.1 (a) Longitude-pressure cross section of ERA Interim vertical velocity trend during the period 2002-2013 (averaged between 10°S to 10°N). (b) ERA Interim zonal wind stress trend during the period 2002-2013. The shaded areas indicate p < 0.05.
Tables
Table 1.1 Comparison of general circulation model (GCM) experiments of Maritime Continent deforestation.
Avissar, 2005 not mentioned −1 over part of
deforested areas not mentioned not mentioned
Mabuchi et al.,
2005a (JJA) +0.44 −1.42 over part of
deforested areas −8.79 −4.28
Mabuchi et al.,
2005b (DJF) +0.40 −1.38 over part of
deforested areas −8.79 −3.59
Mabuchi et al.,