The growth of a lineage population can be investigated by estimating the male population with the number of male births in each 5-year interval and a set of survival ratios at different age groups. Through this calculation, we can obtain the estimated male population of a lineage with age structure in each 5-year period. With the estimates of 49 lineages, a few points about the growth of lineage male population may be summarized below.42
(1) The curve of the lineage male population mostly showed a growth trend and the peaks mostly occurred in periods close to the time when the genealogies were compiled: 15 lineages around 1840-55, 10 around 1870-99, and 5 around 1820-25.
The cases of exception were found either because there was a large number of out-migration and thus birth dates of emigrants were missing or simply because records of birth dates were missing in a certain section of the genealogy.
(2) In the early stage of growth process of lineage populations, because the number of males was still very small the growth rate tended to change drastically. Once the male population of a lineage reached a certain number, drastic changes disappeared and the tempos of different lineages could be more or less the same.
This can be seen from Figure 8 which shows the examples of the I-huang Huang 宜黃黃 lineage of Kiangsi and the T’ung-ch’eng Wang 桐城王 lineage of Anhwei. It is notable that the curves of growth rate of these two lineages clearly revealed a lower level around 1590-1665 and a higher level around 1665-1765; a remarkable difference between the time of the Ming-Ch’ing transition and that of High Ch’ing could thus be clearly conceived.
(3) Along with the growth of population, the age structure among the lineage males also gradually changes from one with a large proportion at younger ages to one with a large proportion at ages 15-64, that is, the dependency ratio became less than one. Only when this stage of favorable age structure was reached, could a lineage then start to perform its socio-economic functions vigorously.43
In addition to the growth dynamics, we can also estimate the intrinsic growth rate of the lineage population. Here the ASFRs estimated for each lineage and suitable
42 Ts’ui-jung Liu 1992:236-244.
43 For some details of how these lineages operate their functions, see Ts’ui-jung Liu 1992:292-301.
22
west model life table are taken as constant to calculate the intrinsic growth rate (IGR).
The results show that 12 lineages had estimates of IGR higher than 1%. These lineages had a high IGR because they had comparatively higher fertility and lower mortality. There were 8 lineages whose IGR was negative or close to zero. These lineages had a low IGR because they either had rather low fertility or rather high mortality. For the rest of 29 lineages, the IGR ranged between 0.1% and 0.9%. When the mortality of west model level 6 is used to calculate with the average ASFRs, we obtain the intrinsic growth rate as 0.7% and the length of generation as 32.78 years.
This kind of momentum should be quite close to the fact of population growth in China during the period from the late seventeenth to the late eighteenth centuries.
CONCLUSION
This study demonstrates that Chinese genealogies which keep vital records of family and lineage members to some extent can be quite useful for the study of historical demography. With the vital statistics organized from the genealogies, we can investigate into marriage, fertility, mortality, and growth of the lineage populations; the demographic system of Chinese population in the past can thus be grasped to some extent. It is found that these lineage populations tend to marry early and universally; remarriage is not unusual among men and even though the state and the society foster chastity, there is a demand for re-marriageable women; still there are
-202468 1012 1416 1820 2224
1315 1335 1355 1375 1395 1415 1435 1455 1475 1495 1515 1535 1555 1575 1595 1615 1635 1655 1675 1695 1715 1735 1755 1775 1795 1815 1835 1855
%
Year
Figure 8: The Growth Rate of Two Lineages
Tc Wang Ih Huang
23
more widows than widowers. It is quite clear that the age pattern of fertility does not change in a long time; each conjugal family on the average has 2.5 to 3 sons; the fertility rate varies among provinces and periods, but a generally higher fertility rate can be marked out around the period 1675-1725. The estimates of expectation of life for the lineage adult males and females are mostly comparable to the west model levels 5-7. It is notable that short term fluctuations of fertility and mortality are concurrent with major events of wars and natural calamities. It is also notable that at the juncture when the Ch’ing dynasty starts to decline from its prime time in the late eighteenth century, the demographic system shows a higher percentage celibate males aged 40 and above, a lower fertility rate, and perhaps a higher mortality rate. When the mortality of west model level 6 and the average age specific fertility rate in terms of male births of 50 lineages are taken to calculate the intrinsic growth rate, the result is 0.7%. This momentum of growth is quite plausible in reflecting a doubling of population in China during the period from the late seventeenth to the late eighteenth centuries.
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24
Hayami, Akira, “Rural Migration and Fertility in Tokugawa Japan: the Village of Nishijo, 1773-1868,” in Susan B. Hanley and Arthur P; Wolf eds., Family and Population in East Asian History. Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1985, pp.
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Zurndorfer, Harriet, Change and Continuity in Chinese Local History: The Development of Hui-chou Prefecture, 800-1800. Leiden, 1989.
25
APPENDIX: Statistics for Figures 1-8
Table A1: Total Fertility of Lineages grouped by Province
Period Kiangsu Chekinag Anhwei Hunan Hupei Kwangtung
1650 1.62 1.83 2.42 2.40 2.90
26
Table A2: Expectation of Life at Age 15 and 30
Lineages Male Female
Lineages Male Female
M15 M30 F15 F30 M15 M30 F15 F30
1 Wu-chin Liu 30.72 22.47 38.09 31.31 26 Yin-hsien Li 37.15 24.85 33.93 24.98 2 Hsiao-shan Fu 32.12 24.67 30.52 24.85 27T'ung-ch'eng Wang 37.21 25.64 39.83 28.50 3 Taiwan Yu 32.96 23.23 35.36 25.04 28 Hisu-ning Chu 37.70 26.74 37.32 28.48 4 Ch'ing-hsi Yen 33.44 22.14 36.04 27.18 29 Wu-chin Chou 38.16 25.35 37.46 25.76 5 Chiang-yin Miao 33.66 23.24 37.07 26.21 30Hsiao-shan Ts'ao 38.27 26.20 35.77 26.76 6 Hsiang-shan Mai 33.96 24.84 38.03 28.34 31 Hsiao-shan Sihi 38.30 25.92 36.83 27.32 7 Yung-ch'un Cheng 34.06 24.60 41.27 31.29 32 Wu-ch'ang Hsu 38.31 26.34 42.66 30.49 8 Nan-hsun Chou 34.50 22.94 29.65 27.58 33 P'an-yu Ling 38.41 26.52 40.24 30.55 9 Hsiao-shan Hsu 34.89 24.02 37.13 28.08 34 Nan-ch'ang Li 38.79 27.10 41.67 30.94 10 Yu-yao Shih 35.04 24.18 36.75 27.54 35 Hsin-hui Yi 39.14 27.45 39.99 29.65 11 Wu-hin Tsou 35.28 23.73 36.68 25.01 36 T'ien-chin Li 39.14 25.91 37.82 29.36 12 K'uai-chi Ch'in 35.36 23.63 35.34 26.10 37 T'ien-chin Kuo 39.20 26.04 39.10 28.52 13 Nan-ch'ang Kan 35.76 28.85 41.07 30.40 38 Nan-hai Huang 39.25 27.22 40.47 29.92 14 Wu-chin Sheng 35.82 23.60 40.52 28.65 39 Heng-yang Wei 39.83 28.21 40.41 29.80 15Wan-p'ing Wang 35.87 25.41 29.30 23.87 40 Hsiao-shan Lang 39.95 27.49 36.06 27.95 16 Hsiang-shan Hsu 35.91 25.59 39.59 28.51 41 Ch'ing-ch'uan Li 40.18 28.83 41.69 31.55 17 Shang-ch'iu Sung 36.02 25.48 30.65 26.65 42 Cheng-chiang
Chang 40.37 27.83 39.43 28.59
18 Chiang-tu Chu 36.06 24.05 37.90 26.45 43 Hsiao-shan Li 40.56 27.51 37.01 28.32 19 I-huang Huang 36.06 26.39 37.11 29.16 44 Hui-min Li 40.67 28.40 37.11 28.98 20Chiang-yin Ma 36.19 26.71 36.53 26.66 45 T'zu-hsi Ch'ien 40.85 29.54 41.88 33.04
21 T'ung-ch'eng Chao 36.31 25.40 38.28 27.87 46 Huang-hsien Ting 42.42 30.87 33.75 29.52 22 I-hsing Cheng 36.61 25.76 38.90 28.36 47 Sho-yang Li 42.76 29.80 43.61 31.51 23 Ch'i-shui Pi 36.89 25.80 38.83 28.27 48 K'ai-feng Sung 44.35 31.53 39.06 32.55 24Hsiao-shan Shen 37.12 25.74 36.01 27.21 49 Hsin-yang Lao 44.36 32.07 40.94 31.16 25 Ting-hsing Lu 37.13 26.39 35.46 29.91
27
Table A3: Qx (1)
Age Ts'ao Chao Huang Pi West 6
15 0.02084 0.03359 0.04772 0.03132 0.04225 20 0.02975 0.04336 0.05538 0.04080 0.05987 25 0.04191 0.05587 0.06496 0.05300 0.06676 30 0.05826 0.07184 0.07703 0.06865 0.07696 35 0.07991 0.09220 0.09234 0.08868 0.09005 40 0.10816 0.11810 0.11191 0.11421 0.10850 45 0.14444 0.15098 0.13709 0.14668 0.12615 50 0.19034 0.19263 0.16978 0.18785 0.15885 55 0.24750 0.24528 0.21255 0.23988 0.19354 60 0.31756 0.31172 0.26900 0.30545 0.25818 65 0.40205 0.39537 0.34416 0.38785 0.33472 70 0.50226 0.50049 0.44511 0.49107 0.44015 75 0.61913 0.63231 0.58195 0.61999 0.57926 80+ 1.00000 1.00000 1.00000 1.00000 1.00000
Table A4: Qx (2)
Age Wei CcLi SyLi West 8
15 0.02505 0.02788 0.01243 0.03548 20 0.03251 0.03460 0.01833 0.05028 25 0.04221 0.04325 0.02669 0.05586 30 0.05482 0.05444 0.03838 0.06432 35 0.07123 0.06899 0.05452 0.07549 40 0.09259 0.08803 0.07649 0.09152 45 0.12041 0.11312 0.10599 0.10787 50 0.15665 0.14636 0.14504 0.13750 55 0.20388 0.19069 0.19605 0.17072 60 0.26546 0.25018 0.26172 0.23049 65 0.34578 0.33049 0.34508 0.30350 70 0.45059 0.43962 0.44938 0.40538 75 0.58741 0.58884 0.57797 0.54103 80+ 1.00000 1.00000 1.00000 1.00000
28
Table A5: Qx (3)
Age HsHsu YcCheng Yu West 5 15 0.03989 0.05153 0.04883 0.04604 20 0.04958 0.06119 0.06092 0.06525 25 0.06168 0.07311 0.07586 0.07287 30 0.07680 0.08787 0.09426 0.08404 35 0.09571 0.10626 0.11688 0.09821 40 0.11937 0.12927 0.14462 0.11803 45 0.14900 0.15823 0.17857 0.13640 50 0.18614 0.19484 0.22003 0.17082 55 0.23274 0.24139 0.27055 0.20633 60 0.29124 0.30087 0.31196 0.27371 65 0.36476 0.37729 0.40464 0.35222 70 0.45722 0.47500 0.49663 0.45965 75 0.57360 0.60418 0.60554 0.60069 80+ 1.00000 1.00000 1.00000 1.00000
Table A6: Qx (4)
Age WpWang TtKuo TtLi Lu West 6
15 0.03915 0.01099 0.01063 0.03567 0.04225 20 0.04831 0.01820 0.01751 0.04376 0.05987 25 0.05990 0.02932 0.02813 0.05410 0.06676 30 0.07461 0.04585 0.04405 0.06737 0.07696 35 0.09336 0.06964 0.06728 0.08453 0.09005 40 0.11737 0.10274 0.10019 0.10686 0.10850 45 0.14825 0.14722 0.14551 0.13610 0.12615 50 0.18812 0.20489 0.20607 0.17464 0.15885 55 0.23984 0.27697 0.28458 0.22578 0.19354 60 0.30719 0.36366 0.38324 0.29409 0.25818 65 0.39529 0.46377 0.50329 0.38595 0.33472 70 0.51103 0.57445 0.64450 0.51029 0.44015 75 0.66374 0.69113 0.80484 0.67977 0.57926 80+ 1.00000 1.00000 1.00000 1.00000 1.00000
29
Table A7: Average Age at Death aged 15 and above
Year D Wei Li Year D Wei Li
1650 58.11 58.40 1780 58.85 53.02 1655 58.02 54.62 1785 58.49 64.02 1660 58.87 64.18 1790 61.06 61.17 1665 63.82 55.57 1795 60.27 59.39 1670 51.44 64.50 1800 58.42 62.21 1675 46.56 60.49 1805 59.54 58.69 1680 63.94 57.26 1810 62.07 60.43 1685 63.07 57.90 1815 59.84 61.01 1690 52.66 68.44 1820 61.18 62.77 1695 59.87 60.37 1825 57.27 61.60 1700 65.39 66.43 1830 58.93 57.75 1705 52.37 63.70 1835 57.79 59.80 1710 58.93 63.26 1840 62.34 58.10 1715 54.49 59.82 1845 60.93 63.84 1720 62.62 55.95 1850 60.09 54.17 1725 63.17 65.36 1855 57.58 58.07 1730 58.27 63.08 1860 58.99 60.02 1735 49.14 59.01 1865 60.89 61.65 1740 51.14 63.64 1870 63.38 56.30 1745 56.55 64.89 1875 59.00 57.89 1750 57.42 63.65 1880 57.99 60.06 1755 56.02 61.98 1885 58.42 63.09 1760 62.06 54.07 1890 58.41 58.85 1765 57.50 63.30 1895 58.65 65.98 1770 56.09 61.01 1900 57.01 54.29 1775 58.93 62.95
30
Table A8: The growth rate of two lineages: T’ung-ch’eng Wang and I-huang Huang Year Tc Wang Ih Huang Year Tc Wang Ih Huang Year Tc Wang Ih Huang
1315 -0.02 1500 2.06 2.16 1685 1.44 2.08
1320 -0.07 1505 2.08 0.97 1690 1.82 1.49
1325 -0.08 0.94 1510 2.77 0.22 1695 1.78 0.84 1330 -0.63 -0.03 1515 3.55 2.79 1700 1.78 0.85 1335 -0.86 -0.12 1520 2.90 1.29 1705 1.75 1.51 1340 -1.17 21.09 1525 3.19 1.22 1710 2.15 1.56 1345 -1.58 14.03 1530 2.63 1.42 1715 2.05 0.90 1350 15.27 0.25 1535 2.42 2.59 1720 2.27 0.49 1355 8.44 -0.30 1540 1.70 2.11 1725 1.58 0.53 1360 -0.87 -0.70 1545 1.32 1.43 1730 1.82 0.78 1365 -0.99 7.48 1550 1.18 0.50 1735 1.19 0.45 1370 19.18 3.75 1555 1.75 -0.28 1740 1.43 0.52 1375 -0.58 1.24 1560 1.31 0.55 1745 1.57 0.45 1380 -0.63 5.67 1565 0.56 -0.12 1750 1.18 0.29 1385 -0.66 0.69 1570 0.19 0.38 1755 1.42 0.38 1390 -1.10 0.28 1575 0.44 1.41 1760 0.66 0.04 1395 2.27 2.61 1580 0.46 -0.24 1765 1.03 0.37 1400 4.67 1.09 1585 -0.47 -0.73 1770 1.36 0.94 1405 1.30 0.89 1590 -0.02 -0.73 1775 0.63 1.25 1410 3.26 -1.38 1595 -0.31 -0.38 1780 0.28 0.93 1415 2.66 1.59 1600 -0.68 0.38 1785 -0.25 0.70 1420 6.60 1.51 1605 0.43 -0.40 1790 0.30 0.82 1425 0.29 0.41 1610 -0.86 0.22 1795 0.45 0.75 1430 -1.12 5.50 1615 -0.80 0.17 1800 0.47 0.43 1435 3.87 -0.33 1620 -0.70 -0.05 1805 0.58 0.79 1440 2.13 -1.51 1625 -0.80 -0.24 1810 0.54 1.23 1445 -1.14 2.17 1630 -0.48 0.12 1815 0.39 0.57 1450 1.86 2.57 1635 -0.32 0.01 1820 0.25 0.75 1455 1.53 -1.35 1640 -0.54 1.06 1825 0.68 0.25 1460 1.25 -0.24 1645 -0.27 1.07 1830 -0.17 -0.16 1465 1.83 2.30 1650 0.19 0.49 1835 -0.08 0.77 1470 2.25 4.13 1655 0.73 1.77 1840 -0.48 1.34 1475 0.61 1.76 1660 0.29 1.56 1845 0.01 0.78 1480 1.17 1.49 1665 0.24 0.96 1850 -0.46 -0.08 1485 2.22 2.80 1670 0.98 1.58 1855 -0.17 -0.45 1490 4.37 4.22 1675 1.61 1.17 1860 -1.30 -0.65 1495 5.72 0.83 1680 1.49 1.51 1865 -1.47 -0.80