Chiu, T., and C. Chen. 2001. Growth and temporal variation of two Japanese anchovy
28
cohorts during their recruitment to the East China Sea. Fisheries Research 53:1-15.
Chongyin, L. 1990. Interaction between anomalous winter monsoon in East Asia and El Nino events. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 7:36-46.
Cowen, R. K., C. B. Paris, and A. Srinivasan. 2006. Scaling of Connectivity in Marine Populations. Science 311:522-527.
Cushing, D. H. 1975. Marine ecology and fisheries. CUP Archive.
Di Lorenzo, E., N. Schneider, K. M. Cobb, P. J. S. Franks, K. Chhak, A. J. Miller, J. C. Atlantic Basin: simulations in nonlinear terrain-following coordinates.
Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 32:239-281.
He, S. 2013. Reduction of the East Asian winter monsoon interannual variability after the mid-1980s and possible cause. Chinese Science Bulletin 58:1331-1338.
He, S., and H. Wang. 2013. Oscillating Relationship between the East Asian Winter Monsoon and ENSO. Journal of Climate 26:9819-9838.
Hinch, S. G., and J. Bratty. 2000. Effects of swim speed and activity pattern on success of adult sockeye salmon migration through an area of difficult passage.
Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 129:598-606.
Hsia, K.-Y., K.-T. Lee, C.-H. Liao, and J.-E. Wang. 2004. Effects of changes in sea surface temperature on fluctuation in larval anchovy resources in coastal waters of Taiwan. 臺灣水產學會刊 31:127-140.
Hsieh, C.-H., C.-S. Chen, T.-S. Chiu, K.-T. Lee, F.-J. Shieh, J.-Y. Pan, and M.-A. Lee.
2009. Time series analyses reveal transient relationships between abundance of larval anchovy and environmental variables in the coastal waters southwest of Taiwan. Fisheries Oceanography 18:102-117.
Hu, J., H. Kawamura, C. Li, H. Hong, and Y. Jiang. 2010. Review on current and seawater volume transport through the Taiwan Strait. Journal of Oceanography 66:591-610.
Huse, G., G. O. Johansen, B. Bogstad, and H. Gjøsæ ter. 2004. Studying spatial and trophic interactions between capelin and cod using individual-based modelling.
ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil 61:1201-1213.
Isobe, A. 2008. Recent advances in ocean-circulation research on the Yellow Sea and East China Sea shelves. Journal of Oceanography 64:569-584.
Iversen, S. A., D. Zhu, A. Johannessen, and R. Toresen. 1993. Stock size, distribution
29
and biology of anchovy in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea. Fisheries Research 16:147-163.
Jiang, S., and X. Zheng. 1984. The morphological characters of eggs and larvae of Engraulis japonica Temminck et Schlegel and its spawning areas in the fishing ground of the South Fujian and Taiwan Bank. Journal of Oceanography In Taiwan Strait 3:224-231.
Kim, J.-Y., Y.-S. Kang, H.-j. Oh, Y.-S. Suh, and J.-D. Hwang. 2005. Spatial distribution of early life stages of anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) and hairtail (Trichiurus lepturus) and their relationship with oceanographic features of the East China Sea during the 1997–1998 El Niño Event. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 63:13-21.
Kuo, N.-J., and C.-R. Ho. 2004. ENSO effect on the sea surface wind and sea surface temperature in the Taiwan Strait. Geophysical Research Letters 31:L13309.
Lee, H.-J., and S.-Y. Chao. 2003. A climatological description of circulation in and around the East China Sea. Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography 50:1065-1084.
Lee, M.-A., K.-T. Lee, and G.-Y. Shiah. 1995. Environmental factors associated with the formation of larval anchovy fishing grounds in the coastal waters of southwest Taiwan. Marine Biology 121:621-625.
Lee, M., and K. Lee. 1996. The larval anchovy (< i> Engraulis japonicus</i>) fishery in relation to the environmental factors in coastal waters of Fangliao, Taiwan.
Fisheries Research 26:37-48.
Li, C., J. Hu, S. Jan, Z. Wei, G. Fang, and Q. Zheng. 2006. Winter-spring fronts in Taiwan Strait. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 111:C11S13.
Lin, S. F., T. Y. Tang, S. Jan, and C. J. Chen. 2005. Taiwan strait current in winter.
Continental Shelf Research 25:1023-1042.
Mantua, N. J., and S. R. Hare. 1997. A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78:1069.
Marchesiello, P., J. C. McWilliams, and A. Shchepetkin. 2003. Equilibrium structure and dynamics of the California Current System. Journal of Physical Oceanography 33.
Okunishi, T., S.-i. Ito, T. Hashioka, T. Sakamoto, N. Yoshie, H. Sumata, Y. Yara, N.
Okada, and Y. Yamanaka. 2012. Impacts of climate change on growth, migration and recruitment success of Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) in the western North Pacific. Climatic Change 115:485-503.
Okunishi, T., Y. Yamanaka, and S.-i. Ito. 2009. A simulation model for Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) migrations in the western North Pacific.
30
Ecological Modelling 220:462-479.
Opdal, A. F., F. Vikebø, and Ø . Fiksen. 2011. Parental migration, climate and thermal exposure of larvae: spawning in southern regions gives Northeast Arctic cod a warm start. Marine Ecology Progress Series 439:255-262.
Ottersen, G., S. Kim, G. Huse, J. J. Polovina, and N. C. Stenseth. 2010. Major pathways by which climate may force marine fish populations. Journal of Marine Systems 79:343-360.
Philander, S. G., J. R. Holton, and R. Dmowska. 1989. El Nino, La Nina, and the Southern Oscillation. Elsevier Science.
Politikos, D., G. Triantafyllou, G. Petihakis, K. Tsiaras, S. Somarakis, S.-I. Ito, and B.
Megrey. 2011. Application of a bioenergetics growth model for European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) linked with a lower trophic level ecosystem model. Hydrobiologia 670:141-163.
Rose, G. A. 1993. Cod spawning on a migration highway in the north-west Atlantic.
Nature 366:458-461.
Rothschild, B., and M. Fogarty. 1989. Spawning-stock biomass: a source of error in recruitment/stock relationships and management advice. Journal du Conseil:
ICES Journal of Marine Science 45:131-135.
Shang, S., C. Zhang, H. Hong, Q. Liu, G. T. F. Wong, C. Hu, and B. Huang. 2005.
Hydrographic and biological changes in the Taiwan Strait during the 1997–1998 El Niño winter. Geophysical Research Letters 32:L11601.
Shchepetkin, A. F., and J. C. McWilliams. 2005. The regional oceanic modeling
system (ROMS): a split-explicit, free-surface,
topography-following-coordinate oceanic model. Ocean Modelling 9:347-404.
Stenseth, N. C., G. Ottersen, J. W. Hurrell, A. Mysterud, M. Lima, K. S. Chan, N. G.
Yoccoz, and B. Å dlandsvik. 2003. Studying climate effects on ecology through the use of climate indices: the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Nino Southern Oscillation and beyond. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London.
Series B: Biological Sciences 270:2087-2096.
Takasuka, A., Y. Oozeki, H. Kubota, Y. Tsuruta, and T. Funamoto. 2005. Temperature impacts on reproductive parameters for Japanese anchovy: Comparison between inshore and offshore waters. Fisheries Research 76:475-482.
Tang, T. Y., J. H. Tai, and Y. J. Yang. 2000. The flow pattern north of Taiwan and the migration of the Kuroshio. Continental Shelf Research 20:349-371.
Tornita, T., and T. Yasunari. 1996. Role of the Northeast Winter Monsoon on the Biennial Oscillation of the ENSO/Monsoon System. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan 74:399-413.
Tsai, C.-F., P.-Y. Chen, C.-P. Chen, M.-A. Lee, G.-Y. Shiah, and K.-T. Lee. 1998.
31
Fluctuation in abundance of larval anchovy and environmental conditions in coastal waters off south-western Taiwan as associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Fisheries Oceanography 6:238-249.
Tu, C.-Y., Y.-H. Tseng, T.-S. Chiu, M.-L. Shen, and C.-H. Hsieh. 2012. Using coupled fish behavior–hydrodynamic model to investigate spawning migration of Japanese anchovy, Engraulis japonicus, from the East China Sea to Taiwan.
Fisheries Oceanography 21:255-268.
Wang, B. 2006. The asian monsoon. Springer Science & Business Media.
Wang, B., R. Wu, and X. Fu. 2000. Pacific–East Asian Teleconnection: How Does ENSO Affect East Asian Climate? Journal of Climate 13:1517-1536.
Wang, Y., H. Wei, and M. Kishi. 2013. Coupling of an individual-based model of anchovy with lower trophic level and hydrodynamic models. Journal of Ocean University of China 12:45-52.
Weihs, D. 1973. Optimal fish cruising speed.
Willis, J. 2011. Modelling swimming aquatic animals in hydrodynamic models.
Ecological Modelling 222:3869-3887.
Wu, C.-R., S.-Y. Chao, and C. Hsu. 2007. Transient, seasonal and interannual variability of the Taiwan Strait current. Journal of Oceanography 63:821-833.
Young, S.-S., and T.-S. Chiu. 1994. Ovarian maturation of Japanese anchovy, Engraulis japonica T. and S., from I-lan Bay, northeastern Taiwan. Zool. Stud 33:302-309.
Yu, H.-T., Y.-J. Lee, S.-W. Huang, and T.-S. Chiu. 2002. Genetic Analysis of the Populations of Japanese Anchovy (Engraulidae: Engraulis japonicus) Using Microsatellite DNA. Marine Biotechnology 4:471-479.
Yu, Z.-n., X.-y. Kong, T.-h. Guo, Y.-y. Jiang, Z.-m. Zhuang, and X.-s. Jin. 2005.
Mitochondrial DNA sequence variation of Japanese anchovy Engraulis japonicus from the Yellow Sea and East China Sea. Fisheries Science 71:299-307.
Zhang, J., R. Letolle, J. M. Martin, C. Jusserand, and J. M. Mouchel. 1990. Stable oxygen isotope distribution in the Huanghe (Yellow River) and the Changjiang (Yangtze River) estuarine systems. Continental Shelf Research 10:369-384.
Zhang, Y., K. R. Sperber, and J. S. Boyle. 1997. Climatology and interannual variation of the East Asian winter monsoon : Results from the 1979-95 NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA, ETATS-UNIS.
Zhou, W., C. Li, and X. Wang. 2007. Possible connection between Pacific Oceanic interdecadal pathway and east Asian winter monsoon. Geophysical Research Letters 34:L01701.
32
Figure 1. Hypothetical spawning migration route of Japanese anchovy from the coastal area nearby the Yangtze River mouth to the coastal area of Taiwan. Adult anchovies follow the China Coastal Current into the Taiwan Strait, and cross the Taiwan Strait to arrive at the coastal area of northern Taiwan. Tamsui and Ilan coastal areas are known spawning grounds.
33
Figure 2. The historical data of (a) Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), (b) Averaged meridional wind velocity and (c) the averaged velocity of China Coastal Current, where positive values indicate southward flows. Plotted are averaged data from January to February.
34
Figure 3. Model results of near-surface (averaged from 1 to 5 m) current velocity in the East China Sea averaged from January to February for (a) 2003, strong El Niño, and (b) 2007, moderate El Niño.
35
Figure 3 (continued). Model results of near-surface (averaged from 1 to 5 m) current velocity in the East China Sea averaged from January to February for (c) 2008, strong La Niña and (d) 2010, strong El Niño.
36
Figure 3 (continued). Model results of near-surface (averaged from 1 to 5 m) current velocity in the East China Sea averaged from January to February for (e) 2011, strong La Niña and (f) 2012, moderate La Niña.
37
Figure 4. Model results of near-surface (averaged from 1 to 5 m) salinity distribution in the East China Sea averaged from January to February for (a) 2003, strong El Niño, (b) 2007, moderate El Niño, (c) 2008, strong La Niña, (d) 2010, strong El Niño, (e) 2011, strong La Niña, and (f) 2012, moderate La Niña.
38
Figure 5. Sea surface temperature (averaged from 1 to 5 m) in the East China Sea averaged from January to February for (a) 2003, strong El Niño, (b) 2007, moderate El Niño, (c) 2008, strong La Niña, (d) 2010, strong El Niño, (e) 2011, strong La Niña, and (f) 2012, moderate La Niña.
39
Figure 6. Model results of the velocity and the direction of the current in the coastal area of Mainland China (the location of the CCC) starting from January 1st for (a) 2003, strong El Niño, (b) 2007, moderate El Niño, (c) 2008, strong La Niña, (d) 2010, strong El Niño, (e) 2011, strong La Niña, and (f) 2012, moderate La Niña. The negative values indicate southward flows.
40
Figure 7. The general circulation pattern in the hydrodynamic model in Winter. CCC, China Coastal Current; SCSWC, South China Sea Warm Current; KBETC, Kuroshio Branch Current along with the coast of Taiwan in the Taiwan Strait; SCSKBC, Kuroshio Branch Current to the South China Sea.
41
Figure 8. Near-surface (averaged from 1 to 5 m) current velocity and SST in the Taiwan Strait averaged from January to February in year (a) 2003, strong El Niño, (b) 2007, moderate El Niño, (c) 2008, strong La Niña, (d) 2010, strong El Niño, (e) 2011, strong La Niña, and (f) 2012, moderate La Niña.
42
Figure 9. Schematic illustrating the "U" shape current in the central of Taiwan Strait and the anticyclonic eddy in the northwestern area of Changyun Rise generated from the hydrodynamic model.
43
Figure 10. Variation in final destinations of the tracers in the end of simulations among years.
44
Figure 11. The simulation results of the strength variation of the CCC from ROMS, and it has positive correlation with ONI and EAWM. (a) ONI, (b) meridional wind velocity and the simulation results for (c) the averaged velocity of China Coastal Current from January to February.
45
Figure 12. The tracer trajectories in year (a) 2003, strong El Niño and (b) 2007, moderate El Niño. The heavy red line represents the starting location. The red rectangular enclosed the area deemed as successful arrival of Japanese anchovy in this study, which is defined as the 50 kilometers around the Tamsui river estuary. Color of trajectories indicates time of simulation, with darker color representing later stages.
The gray trajectories represent the tracers that miss the CCC.
46
Figure 12 (continued). The tracer trajectories in year (c) 2008, strong La Niña and (d) 2010, strong El Niño. The heavy red line represents the starting location. The red rectangular enclosed the area deemed as successful arrival of Japanese anchovy in this study, which is defined as the 50 kilometers around the Tamsui river estuary. Color of trajectories indicates time of simulation, with darker color representing later stages.
The gray trajectories represent the tracers that miss the CCC.
47
Figure 12 (continued). The tracer trajectories in year (e) 2011, strong La Niña and (f) 2012, moderate La Niña. The heavy red line represents the starting location. The red rectangular enclosed the area deemed as successful arrival of Japanese anchovy in this study, which is defined as the 50 kilometers around the Tamsui river estuary. Color of trajectories indicates time of simulation, with darker color representing later stages.
The gray trajectories represent the tracers that miss the CCC.
48
Figure 13. The tracer trajectories with different initial locations, using the results of 2008 as an example: (a) 30°N and (b) 32°N. The heavy red line represents the starting location. The red rectangular enclosed the area deemed as successful arrival of
Japanese anchovy in this study, which is defined as the 50 kilometers around the Tamsui river estuary. Color of trajectories indicates time of simulation, with darker color representing later stages.
49
Figure 14. Summary statistics of simulations with different initial days.
50
Figure 15. The tracer trajectories from different modeling scenarios, using the results of 2008 as an example: (a) anchovies swim along with the current but change their behavior to follow the temperature gradient when sense the threshold temperature, and (b) anchovies only swim along with the current. The heavy red line represents the starting location. The red rectangular enclosed the area deemed as successful arrival of Japanese anchovy in this study, which is defined as the 50 kilometers around the Tamsui river estuary. Color of trajectories indicates time of simulation, with darker color representing later stages.
51
Figure 16. The current along with the northern coastal of Taiwan, which flows eastward in most time. (a) A snap shot at 2010/01/10, 04:00, (b) the two month average circulation in 2010 and (c) two month average circulation in 2011.