CHAPTER 5:DATA ANALYSIS AND RESULTS
5.2 Results
5.2.2 Results of previous study (Le Quyen’s thesis)
With the same data input and the same method, by applying Grey Theory to compute the synthetic degree of incidence, the prediction value with 19 initial financial ratios were computed and plotted the ROC curve. The AUC results of Le Quyen’s thesis are summarized in the following table:
58 Table 5.8: AUC value (846 samples, θ = 0.5, 19 initial var.)
Group X0 5 year 4 year 3 year
Liquidity
X1 0.6257 0.6347 0.6516
X2 0.6344 0.6557 0.653
X3 0.6451 0.6305 0.6906
X4 0.6713 0.6382 0.6689
Leverage
X5 0.7548 0.7767 0.7538
X6 0.6880 0.7001 0.7018
X7 0.7747 0.7954 0.7337
X8 0.6286 0.5942 0.5477
Activity
X9 0.6486 0.7212 0.7473
X10 0.6795 0.6497 0.5912
X11 0.6319 0.6632 0.5288
X12 0.7156 0.7515 0.7621
X13 0.6388 0.6385 0.6548
X14 0.7118 0.729 0.731
X15 0.6173 0.6363 0.6396
Profitability
X16 0.7609 0.7549 0.6892
X17 0.774 0.788 0.7382
X18 0.7551 0.7752 0.7212
X19 0.7458 0.7753 0.7125
The table 5.8 above illustrates the prediction value of the three year, the four year and the five year history data were computed and plotted the ROC curve corresponding to each circumstance. And the power of prediction when X0 = X7 (debt ratio) and X0 = X17(ROE) are higher than other variables if 19 initial variables were utilized. And the 4 years history data give the highest accuracy.
By comparison with the best results of the previous thesis, (the same 4 years history data and the same θ = 0.5) the author made the following comments: VAR.7 (Dept Ratio) and VAR.17 (ROE) variables also bring the highest value.
59 5.2.3 Comparisons
Summary of AUC value (846 samples, = 0.5, 19 initial var, 4 year.) When using Over-sampling technique the value of AUC is bigger than it when no using Over-sampling technique. It can be seen from the chart that AUC with Replication and SMOTE is little bigger than AUC with No using Over-sampling technique. For example, in case of X1, value of AUC of No using over-sampling technique, Replication and SMOTE is 0.6347; 0.6457; 0.6512 respectively.
Between two kinds of over-sampling technique, the SMOTE outperforms the failure prediction compared to Replication. The results of this research are similar to those of Chawla et al. (2002) in a way that SMOTE shows better predicting ability than replication. For instance, in case of x1: value of AUC of Replication is smaller than value of AUC of SMOTE (0.6475 compare with 0.6512).
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6 x7 x8 x9 x10 x11 x12 x13 x14 x15 x16 x17 x18 x19 No using Over‐sampling technique Replication SMOTE
60
5.3 Summary
In this chapter, the author develops a numerical example to explain how to apply grey incidence analysis in forecast default construction firms. Applying Over-sampling technique before using Grey system put forward some results. Firstly, when using Over-sampling technique, the value of AUC is bigger in comparison with when not using Over-sampling technique. Secondly, between the two kinds of over-sampling technique, the SMOTE outperforms the failure prediction compared to Replication.
61
CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSION
By analyzing the historical data, the author found out that the usefulness of Grey Systems Theory in bankruptcy prediction of construction companies was proven by several studies. As presented, the purposes of this research are: Apply over-sampling technique before using Grey System to resolve imbalance data problem. Then, the author want to compare with previous research to find out which method gives higher efficiency and improve the usefulness of Grey system Theory.
Some main conclusions drawn in this research through empirical results are:
1. When using Over-sampling technique the value of AUC is bigger in comparison with when not using Over-sampling technique.
2. Between these two kinds of over-sampling technique, the SMOTE outperforms the failure prediction compared to Replication.
In practice, there are many methods for the prediction default probability. Each method could provide different selected data and then lead to different results in prediction process. Furthermore, the author wish to combine Grey method with the other methods to assess the accuracy of prediction default probability.
62
REFERENCES
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2. A.Ohlson, J. (1980). Financial ratios and the probabilistic prediction of Bankruptcy.
Journal of Accounting reseach , Vol.18, 109-131
3. Beaver, W.H. (1967). Financial ratios predictors of failure. Empirical research in accounting: selected studies 1966.Journal of Accounting Research 4(suppl.), 71–111.
4. Cheng, J. et al (2009). Business Failure Prediction Model based on Grey Prediction and Rough Set Theory. WSEAS transactions on information science and applications, Vol. 6.
5. Chawla, N.V., Bowyer, K.W., Hall, L.O., Kegelmeyer, W.P. (2002). “SMOTE:
Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique,” Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, Vol. 16, pp. 321-357.
6. David S. C (2000). Financial management and ratio analysis for corporative enterprises. Rural Business-Cooperative Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Research Report 175.
7. Deng, Ju long (1982). Control problems of Grey Systems, System and Control letters, Volume 1, number 5, 288-94.
8. Delcea, C. & Scarlat, E. The diagnosis of firm’s “Diseases” using the grey systems theory methods. Springer (106-120).
9. Edum-Fotwe, F., Price, A. & Thorpe, A. A review of financial ratio tools for predicting contractor insolvency. Construction Management and Economics (1996) 14, 189-19.
63 10. Jame M.W Wong & S. Thomas. NG,(2010). Company failure in the construction
industry: A critical review and a future research agenda.
11. Kagari, R., Farid, F., & Elgharib, H. (1992). Financial performance analysis for construction industry. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 118, (2), 349 – 361.
12. Kangari, R. (1988). Business failure in construction industry. Journal of construction Engineering and management , 172-190.
13. Kim, H. & Gu, Z. (2006). Predicting Restaurant Bankruptcy: A Logit Model in Comparison with a Discriminant Model. Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research Vol. 30, No. 4, November 2006, 474-493.
14. Liu, S.F., Lin, Y. (2006). Grey Information: Theory and Practical Applications.
Springer, London.
15. Ping, J & Kejia, C. (2005). Application of Grey Incidence Analysis to Economic Index Time Difference Analysis. IEEE
16. Russell, J. & Zhai, H.(1996). Predicting contractor failure using stochastic dynamics of economic and financial variables. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 122, (2), 183 – 191.
17. Stein. R.M (2002). Benchmarking default prediction models: Pitfalls and remedies in model validation. Technical Report #020305.
18. Taffler, R.J. (1982). Forecasting company failure in the UK using discriminant analysis and financial ratio data. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 145, 342–
358 (part 3).
19. Tserng, H.P., Liao, H.H., Tsai, L.K., Chen, P.C. (2011). "Predicting construction contractor default with option-based credit models-models' performance and
64 comparison with financial ratio models." Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 137, No. 6, pp. 412-420
20. Tserng, H.P., Lin, G.F, Tsai, L.K., Chen, P.C. (2011). “An enforced support vector machine model for construction contractor default prediction,” Automation in Construction, Vol. 20, No. 8, pp. 1242-1249
21. Zweig MH, Campbell G (1993). Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) plots a fundamental evaluation tool in clinical medicine.
65
APPENDICES
A.1 Data collection of construction firms
GVKEY: Permanent number of Compustat; PERMO: Permanent of CRSP; SIC:
standard industry classification code; Default: 0 = non- default, 1 = default.
Information of the 92 sample companies
No. Company symbol
GVKEY SIC PERMO Year Default-1
66
67
A.2 Data collection of 15 firms for example mathematics
VAR1 VAR2 VAR3 VAR4 VAR5 VAR6 VAR7 VAR8 VAR9 VAR10 VAR11 VAR12 VAR13 VAR14 VAR15 VAR16 VAR17 VAR18 VAR19
X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 X8 X9 X10 X11 X12 X13 X14 X15 X16 X17 X18 X19
1972 Year I 3.43 2.83 0.65 1.25 0.40 0.21 0.28 37.70 3.63 4.99 26.45 3.45 16.78 2.57 40.32 0.15 0.20 0.07 0.22 1973 Year II 3.53 2.96 0.53 0.93 1.02 0.21 0.51 13.82 3.47 3.36 17.45 3.44 11.92 1.98 9.93 0.10 0.17 0.05 0.16 1974 Year III 1.45 1.26 0.23 1.53 3.52 0.04 0.78 ‐9.55 3.56 2.27 11.19 3.78 14.50 1.35 5.21 ‐0.23 ‐1.25 ‐0.20 ‐1.18 1975 Year IV 2.59 2.31 0.36 0.77 1.60 0.06 0.62 1.12 4.18 2.10 9.94 4.18 10.97 1.18 3.79 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.01 1976 Year V 4.17 3.42 0.38 0.58 0.93 0.16 0.48 1.45 2.17 1.94 10.14 1.82 6.88 0.81 1.81 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.03 Actual
Year Firm 1 (ACMTA)
VAR1 VAR2 VAR3 VAR4 VAR5 VAR6 VAR7 VAR8 VAR9 VAR10 VAR11 VAR12 VAR13 VAR14 VAR15 VAR16 VAR17 VAR18 VAR19
X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 X8 X9 X10 X11 X12 X13 X14 X15 X16 X17 X18 X19
1972 Year I 1.13 0.98 0.06 1.07 5.29 ‐1.18 0.84 ‐3.66 35.65 14.60 8.82 11.56 29.29 1.66 3.06 ‐0.03 ‐0.23 ‐0.02 ‐0.59 1973 Year II 1.24 1.16 0.13 1.53 3.79 ‐0.76 0.79 1.73 34.25 10.87 9.00 18.41 37.80 3.40 8.92 0.03 0.06 0.00 0.10 1974 Year III 1.10 1.06 0.06 2.32 2.38 ‐0.54 0.70 ‐75.13 45.82 8.36 7.97 16.06 106.0 4.21 15.11 ‐0.25 ‐0.87 ‐0.07 ‐3.99 1975 Year IV 0.70 0.66 ‐0.39 ‐2.92 ‐4.16 ‐0.69 1.32 ‐34.22 ‐50.11 7.19 6.59 49.84 117.3 4.47 22.89 ‐0.83 2.71 ‐0.13 2.19 1976 Year V 0.65 0.58 ‐0.50 ‐2.15 ‐3.30 ‐0.82 1.43 2.44 ‐15.12 8.67 7.58 ‐18.15 74.09 6.59 90.75 0.06 ‐0.08 0.00 ‐0.07 Actual
Year Firm 2 (6989B)
68
VAR1 VAR2 VAR3 VAR4 VAR5 VAR6 VAR7 VAR8 VAR9 VAR10 VAR11 VAR12 VAR13 VAR14 VAR15 VAR16 VAR17 VAR18 VAR19
X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 X8 X9 X10 X11 X12 X13 X14 X15 X16 X17 X18 X19
1985 Year I 1.61 1.26 0.28 1.37 1.27 0.19 0.56 5.58 7.32 4.96 9.36 5.05 12.00 2.30 8.80 0.05 0.08 0.02 0.12 1986 Year II 1.55 1.23 0.28 1.55 1.39 0.20 0.57 3.64 7.00 4.03 7.96 4.58 10.77 1.95 8.07 0.04 0.05 0.01 0.07 1987 Year III 1.73 1.25 0.32 1.35 1.46 0.18 0.58 2.15 7.01 5.00 8.10 5.18 10.09 2.09 9.01 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.01 1988 Year IV 1.95 1.44 0.39 1.36 1.07 0.19 0.52 2.16 6.18 5.28 7.32 4.98 9.40 2.17 9.78 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.01 1989 Year V 1.55 0.99 0.29 1.73 1.54 0.15 0.61 ‐9.57 6.43 5.28 6.52 4.98 8.40 2.20 11.48 ‐0.12 ‐0.33 ‐0.06 ‐0.45 Actual
Year Firm 3 (ATKQ)
VAR1 VAR2 VAR3 VAR4 VAR5 VAR6 VAR7 VAR8 VAR9 VAR10 VAR11 VAR12 VAR13 VAR14 VAR15 VAR16 VAR17 VAR18 VAR19
X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 X8 X9 X10 X11 X12 X13 X14 X15 X16 X17 X18 X19
1994 Year I 1.18 0.91 0.11 1.81 1.95 0.07 0.66 3.15 14.94 4.86 8.85 4.97 13.90 1.82 5.54 0.03 0.04 0.01 0.13 1995 Year II 1.34 1.07 0.19 1.81 2.49 0.06 0.71 1.04 11.85 4.96 8.19 6.00 11.22 1.85 7.26 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 1996 Year III 1.51 1.22 0.27 1.69 2.19 0.06 0.69 4.28 8.04 5.20 9.78 6.24 11.10 1.86 8.60 0.04 0.08 0.01 0.09 1997 Year IV 1.50 1.12 0.26 1.66 1.97 0.07 0.66 1.90 6.26 4.36 9.21 5.15 8.70 1.67 8.10 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.01 1998 Year V 1.67 1.33 0.34 1.74 1.63 0.09 0.62 3.09 5.98 4.68 9.07 5.03 8.98 1.81 10.04 0.02 0.04 0.01 0.04 Actual
Year Firm 4
(BNC)
VAR1 VAR2 VAR3 VAR4 VAR5 VAR6 VAR7 VAR8 VAR9 VAR10 VAR11 VAR12 VAR13 VAR14 VAR15 VAR16 VAR17 VAR18 VAR19
X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 X8 X9 X10 X11 X12 X13 X14 X15 X16 X17 X18 X19
1972 Year I 1.42 1.41 0.25 2.02 1.48 0.08 0.60 999.0 13.21 4.59 7.81 8.02 262.1 3.46 19.29 0.08 0.19 0.02 0.31 1973 Year II 1.43 1.41 0.25 2.05 1.51 0.08 0.60 999.0 13.89 4.67 7.75 8.65 268.2 3.47 21.41 0.08 0.21 0.02 0.33 1974 Year III 1.40 1.37 0.24 2.09 1.57 0.09 0.61 999.0 14.65 4.96 8.58 9.15 195.8 3.60 22.49 0.08 0.22 0.02 0.35 1975 Year IV 1.46 1.43 0.26 1.88 1.36 0.09 0.58 999.0 14.86 5.31 9.71 9.16 169.1 3.72 21.93 0.08 0.19 0.02 0.30 1976 Year V 1.39 1.34 0.23 1.93 1.47 0.11 0.60 999.0 13.23 4.76 9.25 7.76 107.0 3.21 17.35 0.07 0.17 0.02 0.31 Actual
Year Firm 5 (3BBEQ)
VAR1 VAR2 VAR3 VAR4 VAR5 VAR6 VAR7 VAR8 VAR9 VAR10 VAR11 VAR12 VAR13 VAR14 VAR15 VAR16 VAR17 VAR18 VAR19
X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 X8 X9 X10 X11 X12 X13 X14 X15 X16 X17 X18 X19
1979 Year I 4.20 4.01 0.43 0.65 0.16 0.34 0.13 481.7 4.09 7.59 31.12 2.13 57.14 1.78 4.44 0.13 0.15 0.08 0.31 1980 Year II 6.16 5.80 0.54 0.72 0.12 0.37 0.11 212.3 3.69 8.02 29.43 2.05 46.77 1.80 4.60 0.10 0.11 0.06 0.19 1981 Year III 8.24 7.85 0.62 0.78 0.09 0.47 0.09 92.8 2.49 7.05 25.98 1.61 33.85 1.45 4.54 0.08 0.09 0.06 0.13 1982 Year IV 8.00 7.50 0.65 0.82 0.10 0.52 0.09 175.1 2.16 7.00 23.26 1.51 28.69 1.37 5.01 0.09 0.09 0.06 0.13 1983 Year V 8.82 8.53 0.69 0.85 0.10 0.55 0.09 127.8 1.95 6.09 20.40 1.43 31.96 1.30 5.39 0.07 0.08 0.06 0.11 Actual
Year Firm 6 (BLAK)
VAR1 VAR2 VAR3 VAR4 VAR5 VAR6 VAR7 VAR8 VAR9 VAR10 VAR11 VAR12 VAR13 VAR14 VAR15 VAR16 VAR17 VAR18 VAR19
X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 X8 X9 X10 X11 X12 X13 X14 X15 X16 X17 X18 X19
2000 Year I 1.18 1.14 0.07 0.71 0.71 ‐3.46 0.42 ‐5.62 58.35 5.33 11.59 3.24 61.72 1.79 3.16 ‐0.13 ‐0.27 ‐0.10 ‐2.26 2001 Year II 4.11 4.03 0.69 1.17 0.30 ‐3.02 0.23 ‐10.39 2.77 5.50 12.41 1.80 60.20 1.26 4.72 ‐0.08 ‐0.11 ‐0.08 ‐0.12 2002 Year III 2.57 2.34 0.42 0.93 0.70 ‐4.16 0.41 ‐43.44 1.78 5.50 16.43 1.49 26.02 1.04 5.86 ‐0.47 ‐0.81 ‐0.35 ‐1.15 2003 Year IV 1.53 1.42 0.18 0.75 1.59 ‐5.15 0.61 ‐16.48 4.16 5.12 15.73 2.59 22.28 1.29 3.25 ‐0.33 ‐0.90 ‐0.24 ‐1.98 2004 Year V 1.74 1.61 0.21 0.71 0.92 ‐5.01 0.48 2.39 6.80 6.14 24.75 2.91 29.92 1.34 2.71 0.10 0.11 0.05 0.27 Actual
Year Firm 7 (ENTZ)
VAR1 VAR2 VAR3 VAR4 VAR5 VAR6 VAR7 VAR8 VAR9 VAR10 VAR11 VAR12 VAR13 VAR14 VAR15 VAR16 VAR17 VAR18 VAR19
X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 X8 X9 X10 X11 X12 X13 X14 X15 X16 X17 X18 X19
1972 Year I 1.76 1.64 0.19 0.58 0.66 0.15 0.40 24.77 13.05 6.82 17.92 3.84 52.12 2.32 4.23 0.11 0.17 0.06 0.53 1973 Year II 1.93 1.76 0.21 0.58 0.59 0.17 0.37 21.35 10.25 6.86 19.40 3.38 46.30 2.08 3.73 0.12 0.18 0.06 0.52 1974 Year III 4.05 3.78 0.35 0.53 0.45 0.24 0.31 5.12 5.11 5.61 18.75 2.19 34.51 1.44 2.65 0.05 0.04 0.02 0.09 1975 Year IV 3.83 3.61 0.34 0.52 0.43 0.33 0.30 1.84 3.04 4.97 20.16 1.51 30.21 1.05 1.95 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.02 1976 Year V 4.26 3.98 0.36 0.52 0.40 0.31 0.29 4.15 3.42 6.19 21.44 1.68 34.82 1.19 2.21 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.06 Actual
Year Firm 8 (MTZ)
VAR1 VAR2 VAR3 VAR4 VAR5 VAR6 VAR7 VAR8 VAR9 VAR10 VAR11 VAR12 VAR13 VAR14 VAR15 VAR16 VAR17 VAR18 VAR19
X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 X8 X9 X10 X11 X12 X13 X14 X15 X16 X17 X18 X19
1983 Year I 1.58 0.36 0.21 0.87 1.59 0.28 0.61 4.41 5.84 10.61 5.35 3.06 2.30 1.13 2.59 0.07 0.12 0.04 0.23 1984 Year II 1.84 0.31 0.32 1.11 1.80 0.21 0.64 4.69 4.98 12.45 5.25 3.41 2.37 1.27 3.33 0.07 0.13 0.03 0.15 1985 Year III 1.81 0.35 0.29 0.99 1.79 0.21 0.64 7.65 5.40 16.70 5.72 4.53 2.75 1.62 4.84 0.07 0.15 0.03 0.18 1986 Year IV 2.04 0.30 0.29 0.79 1.74 0.26 0.63 10.99 4.75 16.64 4.92 3.78 2.53 1.37 3.44 0.05 0.12 0.03 0.15 1987 Year V 1.75 0.24 0.26 0.95 1.85 0.25 0.65 4.28 5.20 20.18 5.04 4.01 2.72 1.44 3.52 0.03 0.07 0.02 0.09 Actual
Year Firm 9
(CTX)
VAR1 VAR2 VAR3 VAR4 VAR5 VAR6 VAR7 VAR8 VAR9 VAR10 VAR11 VAR12 VAR13 VAR14 VAR15 VAR16 VAR17 VAR18 VAR19
X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 X8 X9 X10 X11 X12 X13 X14 X15 X16 X17 X18 X19
1981 Year I 1.95 1.95 0.46 1.80 0.92 0.05 0.48 8.49 6.84 3.51 40.06 6.08 999.0 3.20 48.25 0.13 0.20 0.04 0.22 1982 Year II 1.73 1.73 0.40 2.06 1.20 0.08 0.54 11.94 7.87 3.68 36.73 6.87 999.0 3.30 53.84 0.16 0.30 0.05 0.35 1983 Year III 3.39 3.39 0.67 1.32 0.39 0.08 0.28 19.40 4.92 3.94 17.31 4.53 999.0 2.96 56.20 0.09 0.11 0.04 0.12 1984 Year IV 3.56 3.56 0.65 1.21 0.34 0.09 0.25 70.88 3.89 3.99 14.20 3.51 999.0 2.57 35.57 0.09 0.11 0.03 0.13 1985 Year V 1.97 1.97 0.33 1.00 0.81 0.14 0.45 12.26 4.24 3.93 15.11 3.09 999.0 1.95 8.24 0.08 0.12 0.04 0.21 Actual
Year Firm 10
(CERB)
69
VAR1 VAR2 VAR3 VAR4 VAR5 VAR6 VAR7 VAR8 VAR9 VAR10 VAR11 VAR12 VAR13 VAR14 VAR15 VAR16 VAR17 VAR18 VAR19
X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 X8 X9 X10 X11 X12 X13 X14 X15 X16 X17 X18 X19
1984 Year I 1.68 1.68 0.34 1.64 2.16 0.08 0.68 5.31 11.23 5.14 24.53 11.16 999.0 3.52 18.84 0.08 0.17 0.02 0.16 1985 Year II 1.42 1.42 0.23 1.65 2.51 0.06 0.72 0.73 12.62 5.12 21.89 11.70 999.0 3.51 17.04 0.03 0.00 0.00 ‐0.01 1986 Year III 1.81 1.81 0.36 1.41 3.75 0.06 0.79 ‐1.87 8.16 3.73 11.65 9.77 999.0 2.40 10.85 ‐0.02 ‐0.28 ‐0.03 ‐0.17 1987 Year IV 2.19 2.18 0.48 1.48 3.46 0.01 0.78 ‐1.97 6.10 3.85 11.28 11.80 733.4 2.57 16.03 ‐0.05 ‐0.37 ‐0.03 ‐0.17 1988 Year V 1.89 1.86 0.44 1.80 38.03 ‐0.08 0.97 ‐2.97 4.75 3.01 9.26 17.44 180.8 2.17 22.39 ‐0.14 ‐7.42 ‐0.09 ‐0.44 Actual
Year Firm 11
(CSTK)
VAR1 VAR2 VAR3 VAR4 VAR5 VAR6 VAR7 VAR8 VAR9 VAR10 VAR11 VAR12 VAR13 VAR14 VAR15 VAR16 VAR17 VAR18 VAR19
X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 X8 X9 X10 X11 X12 X13 X14 X15 X16 X17 X18 X19
1972 Year I 1.24 0.59 0.12 1.24 1.23 0.09 0.55 19.00 32.95 17.47 16.95 9.75 13.23 4.30 11.68 0.08 0.16 0.02 0.59 1973 Year II 1.09 0.56 0.05 1.65 1.59 0.09 0.61 21.71 49.00 14.74 14.21 9.57 11.43 3.95 10.97 0.07 0.16 0.02 1.24 1974 Year III 1.24 0.50 0.14 1.63 1.67 0.07 0.63 8.59 45.38 17.31 15.64 11.64 11.17 4.42 13.88 0.08 0.17 0.02 0.48 1975 Year IV 1.35 0.47 0.18 1.41 1.34 0.07 0.57 10.96 28.87 21.82 15.74 11.32 9.95 4.54 14.99 0.09 0.17 0.02 0.41 1976 Year V 1.51 0.66 0.23 1.28 1.10 0.08 0.52 20.42 23.33 23.90 17.50 10.66 10.99 4.81 15.59 0.08 0.15 0.01 0.30 Actual
Year Firm 12
(DANC)
VAR1 VAR2 VAR3 VAR4 VAR5 VAR6 VAR7 VAR8 VAR9 VAR10 VAR11 VAR12 VAR13 VAR14 VAR15 VAR16 VAR17 VAR18 VAR19
X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 X8 X9 X10 X11 X12 X13 X14 X15 X16 X17 X18 X19
1972 Year I 3.20 1.86 0.57 1.13 0.35 0.30 0.26 48.56 3.44 5.74 14.02 2.63 4.51 1.98 11.03 0.06 0.07 0.03 0.10 1973 Year II 2.08 1.05 0.42 1.34 0.69 0.32 0.41 29.96 3.44 4.75 12.31 2.56 3.69 1.68 9.48 0.06 0.10 0.04 0.14 1974 Year III 1.63 0.83 0.32 1.65 1.06 0.23 0.51 2.97 5.04 5.47 12.29 3.44 3.99 1.84 10.05 0.05 0.05 0.02 0.08 1975 Year IV 2.15 1.26 0.41 1.20 0.71 0.24 0.41 11.82 5.31 6.29 10.69 3.61 4.33 1.93 9.42 0.11 0.16 0.05 0.22 1976 Year V 2.26 1.49 0.42 1.14 0.75 0.32 0.43 19.43 3.78 6.10 9.38 2.72 4.37 1.57 6.63 0.07 0.11 0.04 0.15 Actual
Year Firm 13
(DBNN)
VAR1 VAR2 VAR3 VAR4 VAR5 VAR6 VAR7 VAR8 VAR9 VAR10 VAR11 VAR12 VAR13 VAR14 VAR15 VAR16 VAR17 VAR18 VAR19
X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 X8 X9 X10 X11 X12 X13 X14 X15 X16 X17 X18 X19
1971 Year I 3.38 1.59 0.61 1.17 2.32 0.15 0.70 18.92 2.03 26.81 17.18 3.80 1.61 1.10 7.46 0.09 0.27 0.11 0.13 1972 Year II 2.90 1.01 0.44 0.87 2.13 0.13 0.68 11.09 2.04 17.90 20.70 3.29 1.69 1.03 4.04 0.10 0.25 0.10 0.18 1973 Year III 2.61 0.80 0.39 0.84 2.31 0.17 0.70 6.93 2.14 11.26 19.52 2.85 1.53 0.88 2.53 0.07 0.18 0.07 0.14 1974 Year IV 2.66 0.70 0.44 0.95 2.35 0.14 0.70 ‐0.85 1.70 6.88 16.04 2.34 1.11 0.70 2.10 0.00 ‐0.16 ‐0.06 ‐0.11 1975 Year V 2.44 0.46 0.39 0.91 1.39 0.22 0.58 2.50 1.66 7.64 19.92 1.97 0.94 0.69 2.17 0.07 0.07 0.04 0.08 Actual
Year Firm 14 (DCA.2)
VAR1 VAR2 VAR3 VAR4 VAR5 VAR6 VAR7 VAR8 VAR9 VAR10 VAR11 VAR12 VAR13 VAR14 VAR15 VAR16 VAR17 VAR18 VAR19
X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 X8 X9 X10 X11 X12 X13 X14 X15 X16 X17 X18 X19
1971 Year I 1.45 1.08 0.10 0.40 2.24 0.18 0.69 1.12 11.19 5.09 12.44 3.23 11.56 1.03 1.55 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.06 1972 Year II 1.46 1.11 0.09 0.37 2.10 0.18 0.67 1.70 10.79 5.32 12.87 3.27 11.92 1.03 1.48 0.04 0.05 0.01 0.17 1973 Year III 1.35 1.06 0.09 0.46 2.02 0.18 0.67 2.98 12.88 5.71 11.99 3.59 14.25 1.17 1.72 0.05 0.08 0.02 0.29 1974 Year IV 1.41 1.04 0.11 0.51 2.16 0.16 0.68 3.04 13.73 5.83 11.75 4.23 14.19 1.36 2.12 0.06 0.09 0.02 0.27 1975 Year V 1.43 1.07 0.13 0.60 2.11 0.15 0.67 2.63 12.65 5.82 12.05 4.67 13.13 1.48 2.46 0.06 0.09 0.02 0.23 Actual
Year Firm 15
(DHM)