Data Appendix
B. The sources for trading bloc dummies
1. CIA’s The World Factbook 2009.
2. The Chuck Taylor website:
http://home.hiwaay.net/~taylorc/about/sitemap.html
3. The World Bank’s World Development Indicators website:
http://ddp-ext.worldbank.org/ext/DDPQQ/
4. IMF World Trade Flows 1986-2006.
5. UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics 2008.
6. UN Yearbook of International Trade Statistics.
7. World Trade Indicators 2008.
41
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The World Bank’s World Development Indicators 2007 CD-ROM.
45
Table 1 The total value of exports in different geographical regions
Millions of dollars (Percentage)
YEAR 1980 1990 2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Developing economies
Africa 118,981 106,983 153,072 178,383 231,869 303,036 358,998 397,457 (5.86%) (3.08%) (2.37%) (2.36%) (2.53%) (2.89%) (2.97%) (2.87%) America 111,345 143,793 364,482 384,445 474,969 570,768 683,156 765,319 (5.48%) (4.13%) (5.65%) (5.09%) (5.17%) (5.45%) (5.65%) (5.53%) Eastern Asia 76,165 280,565 774,897 1,003,970 1,285,300 1,538,367 1,847,451 2,187,451 (3.75%) (8.06%) (12%) (13.3%) (14%) (14.69%) (15.28%) (15.81%) South-Eastern Asia 73,957 145,284 431,911 453,696 568,977 652,733 765,641 865,786 (3.64%) (4.18%) (6.69%) (6.01%) (6.2%) (6.23%) (6.33%) (6.26%) Developed economies
America 293,549 521,758 1,058,880 998,036 1,123,608 1,267,055 1,428,253 1,579,896 (14.45%) (15%) (16.4%) (13.22%) (12.24%) (12.1%) (11.82%) (11.42%)
Asia 135,979 299,157 510,653 503,601 604,293 637,675 696,720 763,733
(6.69%) (8.6%) (7.91%) (6.67%) (6.58%) (6.09%) (5.76%) (5.52%) Europe 892,261 1,646,917 2,598,373 3,324,405 3,968,865 4,307,508 4,861,890 5,597,668 (43.91%) (47.33%) (40.25%) (44.05%) (43.22%) (41.12%) (40.22%) (40.47%)
Sources: UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics 2008, UN Yearbook of International Trade Statistics, IMF Direction of Trade Statistics.
Note: Exports are calculated in F.O.B. unit and measured in millions of dollars. The shares of exports relative to the world trade in different regions are in parentheses.
46
Table 2 The total value of imports in different geographical regions
Millions of dollars (Percentage)
YEAR 1980 1990 2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Developing economies
Africa 93,735 97,057 130,238 173,391 217,515 262,927 300,314 340,949
(4.52%) (2.7%) (1.96%) (2.23%) (2.3%) (2.44%) (2.43%) (2.43%) America 123,588 127,240 392,045 369,101 449,011 530,415 631,683 749,287 (5.96%) (3.54%) (5.89%) (4.75%) (4.75%) (4.92%) (5.12%) (5.33%) Eastern Asia 85,536 265,896 742,868 956,454 1,231,634 1,411,111 1,647,495 1,910,060 (4.13%) (7.41%) (11.17%) (12.31%) (13.02%) (13.09%) (13.35%) (13.59%) South-Eastern Asia 65,641 162,292 377,683 396,757 496,193 594,331 683,017 772,366 (3.17%) (4.52%) (5.68%) (5.11%) (5.24%) (5.52%) (5.54%) (5.5%) Developed economies
America 320,210 641,358 1,505,240 1,549,441 1,807,270 2,065,547 2,278,816 2,405,993 (15.44%) (17.86%) (22.62%) (19.94%) (19.1%) (19.18%) (18.47%) (17.12%)
Asia 151,080 252,162 410,915 419,233 497,406 562,064 629,908 676,478
(7.29%) (7.02%) (7.18%) (5.40%) (5.26%) (5.22%) (5.11%) (4.81%) Europe 997,995 1,705,132 2,632,643 3,268,626 3,925,749 4,327,522 4,947,720 5,680,024 (48.13%) (47.49%) (39.57%) (42.06%) (41.49%) (40.16%) (40.1%) (40.41%)
Sources: UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics 2008, UN Yearbook of International Trade Statistics, IMF Direction of Trade Statistics.
Note: Imports are calculated in C.I.F. unit and measured in millions of dollars. The shares of imports relative to the world trade in different regions are in parentheses.
47
Table 3 Exports of trade groups
Unit: percentage YEAR 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
CEMAC 0.23 0.20 0.16 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.18 0.22 0.23 0.23
COMESA 1.67 1.17 0.79 0.44 0.46 0.44 0.47 0.48 0.59 0.65 0.66
ECOWAS 1.64 0.97 0.66 0.43 0.55 0.46 0.49 0.55 0.62 0.59 0.48
SADC 1.69 1.20 1.01 0.77 0.79 0.81 0.82 0.86 0.93 0.96 1.01
CACM 0.24 0.19 0.13 0.17 0.21 0.19 0.18 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.15
CARICOM 0.57 0.34 0.14 0.11 0.13 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.14 0.17 0.13
LAIA 4.35 4.89 3.78 4.01 5.14 4.96 4.66 4.77 5.04 5.23 5.15
MERCOSUR 1.45 1.79 1.33 1.36 1.31 1.37 1.41 1.48 1.57 1.57 1.62
NAFTA 15.32 17.08 16.15 16.56 18.97 17.06 15.41 14.29 14.13 13.88 13.38
ASEAN 3.64 3.68 4.18 6.25 6.69 6.29 6.01 6.20 6.23 6.33 6.26
SAARC 0.65 0.73 0.79 0.90 1.00 1.11 1.11 1.14 1.27 1.31 1.33
EFTA 2.42 2.45 2.86 2.43 2.22 2.37 2.32 2.26 2.25 2.25 2.26
EU 41.48 40.73 44.46 42.33 38.02 40.65 41.72 40.95 38.86 37.97 38.20 Euro zone 30.75 30.21 35.05 33.32 29.33 31.52 32.48 31.73 29.79 28.73 29.19
APEC 30.87 37.57 38.30 45.52 48.25 45.62 44.26 44.21 44.74 45.19 44.97
Sources: UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics 2008, UN Yearbook of International Trade Statistics, World Trade Indicators 2008.
48
Table 4 Imports of trade groups
Unit: percentage YEAR 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
CEMAC 0.15 0.14 0.10 0.06 0.06 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.08
COMESA 1.11 1.16 0.97 0.62 0.53 0.56 0.51 0.54 0.63 0.62 0.63
ECOWAS 1.23 0.74 0.39 0.37 0.31 0.39 0.41 0.40 0.44 0.42 0.41
SADC 1.39 0.89 0.83 0.80 0.73 0.74 0.86 0.89 0.92 0.95 0.89
CACM 0.29 0.25 0.18 0.25 0.32 0.35 0.33 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.31
CARICOM 0.69 0.39 0.20 0.19 0.21 0.21 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18
LAIA 4.54 3.25 2.96 4.13 5.08 4.51 4.02 4.08 4.24 4.43 4.65
MERCOSUR 1.82 0.95 0.82 1.53 1.35 0.94 0.89 1.00 1.06 1.14 1.31
NAFTA 16.48 22.25 19.04 19.40 25.35 24.07 22.22 21.26 21.30 20.63 19.21
ASEAN 3.17 3.28 4.52 6.79 5.67 5.39 5.10 5.24 5.51 5.53 5.49
SAARC 1.22 1.32 1.06 1.14 1.20 1.27 1.35 1.49 1.80 1.90 2.00
EFTA 2.62 2.32 2.75 2.20 1.81 1.87 1.84 1.77 1.73 1.71 1.75
EU 45.50 40.16 44.74 40.62 37.73 38.86 40.20 39.69 38.41 38.37 38.64 Euro zone 34.28 29.61 34.68 31.10 28.11 28.45 29.76 29.22 28.15 27.75 28.00
APEC 32.30 39.84 39.14 46.59 50.20 48.68 47.25 47.11 47.68 47.30 46.19
Sources: UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics 2008, UN Yearbook of International Trade Statistics, World Trade Indicators 2008.
49 percentage of total exports of
each group MERCOSUR 3,424 4,127 14,199 17,829 21,128 31.8 22.2 43.1 38.7 26.7 11.6 8.9 20.3 20.0 12.9 NAFTA 102,218 226,273 394,472 676,142 824,550 79 88.8 87.4 91.0 90.7 33.6 41.4 46.2 55.7 55.8 ASEAN 12,413 27,365 79,544 98,060 165,163 29 34 42 39.1 39.5 17.4 18.9 24.5 23.0 25.3 SAARC 613 863 2,024 2,680 7,266 12.2 10.8 12.5 12.7 13.1 4.8 3.2 4.4 4.2 5.6
EFTA 524 782 925 831 1,252 1.4 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5
EU 501,402 1,037,044 1,409,714 1,641,252 2,729,376 .. .. .. .. .. 62.3 67.6 66.8 67.7 67.3
Euro zone 309,700 675,716 869,215 946,891 1,567,841 70.5 71.8 70.7 68.8 67.7 51.9 55.5 52.6 50.8 50.3 APEC 357,697 901,730 1,689,154 2,262,085 3,309,304 .. .. .. .. .. 57.9 68.3 71.7 73.1 70.8 Sources: UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics 2008, IMF Direction of Trade Statistics.
50
Table 6 Export structure by partner: By main region of destination
Developed economies
Total EU USA Japan Others Total
Eastern,
Sources: UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics 2008, International Monetary Fund, Direction of Trade statistics.
51
Table 7 Import structure by partner: By main region of destination
Developed economies
Total EU USA Japan Others Total
Eastern,
Sources: UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics 2008, International Monetary Fund, Direction of Trade statistics.
52
Population (Nijt) United Nations National
Accounts Main Aggregates Database 2008.
Distance (DISTij) Measured in kilometers. The geographic location in the CIA’s The World Factbook 2009 computed distance by The Chuck Taylor Web Site.
Language Dummy (LANGij)
1 if two trading countries use common language.
CIA’s The World Factbook 2009.
Adjacency Dummy (ADJij)
1 if two trading countries share a border.
1 if the two countries are in the same trade bloc in year t.
The official website of each trade bloc.
53
Table 9 List of 41 exporting and 57 importing countries
Argentina (56) Honduras (0)* Panama (0)*
Australia (56) Hong Kong (56) Paraguay (52)
Austria (56) Iceland (0)* Peru (54)
Brazil (56) India (56) Philippines (56)
Cameroon (0)* Indonesia (56) Portugal (56)
Canada (56) Ireland (56) Singapore (56)
Chile (56) Italy (56) South Africa (0)*
China (56) Jamaica (50) Spain (56)
Colombia (56) Japan (56) Sweden (56)
Costa Rica (0)* Kenya (55) Switzerland (56) Cote d´Voire (0)* Korean Republic (56) Thailand (56) Denmark (56) Malaysia (56) Tunisia (0)*
Ecuador (0)* Mexico (56) Turkey (56)
Egypt (56) Morocco (56) United Kingdom (56) El Salvador (0)* Netherlands (56) United States (56) Finland (56) New Zealand (56) Uruguay (56) France (56) Nicaragua (0)* Venezuela (0)*
Germany (0)* Nigeria (0)* Zambia (0)*
Greece (56) Norway (56) Zimbabwe (0)*
Note: The data set of 2282 trading country pairs includes 41 exporting and 57 importing countries over the period 1986-2006. For each country, the number in the bracket denotes the number of its export destinations in the data set. * denotes a country that is a trade destination but not trade origin country in the data set.
54
Table 10 Trade blocs and selected member countries
Trade bloc Year
enforced Member countries
EU (27) 1957
Belgium (1957), France (1957)*, Germany (1957)*, Italy (1957)*, Luxembourg (1957), The Netherlands (1957), Denmark (1973)*, Ireland (1973)*, The United Kingdom (1973)*, Greece (1981)*, Spain (1986)*, Portugal (1986)*, Austria (1995)*, Finland (1995)*, Sweden (1995)*, Czech Republic (2004), Cyprus (2004), Estonia (2004), Latvia (2004), Lithuania (2004), Hungary (2004), Malta (2004), Poland (2004), Slovenia (2004), Slovakia (2004), Bulgaria (2007), Romania (2007).
EURO (16) 1999
Austria (1999)*, Belgium (1999), Finland (1999)
*, France (1999)*, Germany (1999)*, Ireland (1999)*, Italy (1999)*, Luxembourg (1999), Netherlands (1999)*, Portugal (1999)*, Spain (1999)*, Greece (2001)*, Slovenia (2007), Cyprus (2008), Malta (2008), and Slovakia (2009).
NAFTA (3) 1989 Canada (1989)*, USA (1989)*, and Mexico (1994)*.
AFTA (10) 2002
Brunei Darussalam (2002), Cambodia (2002), Indonesia (2002)*, Laos (2002), Malaysia (2002)*, Myanmar (2002), Philippines (2002)*, Singapore (2002)*, Thailand (2002)*, Viet Nam (2002).
MERCOSUR (5) 1994 Argentina (1994)*, Brazil (1994)*, Paraguay (1994)*, Uruguay (1994)*, Venezuela (2006)*.
Note: Total number of member countries of each trade bloc is shown in a parenthesis in column one. In column three the member in a parenthesis is the year when a member country enters into the trade bloc. * denotes a country that is selected member in the data set.
55
Table 11 List of developed and developing countries and country dummies used in the estimation
Developed
Argentina ◎ exporter01 importer01
Australia ◎ exporter02 importer02
Austria ◎ exporter03 importer03
Brazil ◎ exporter04 importer04
Canada ◎ exporter05 importer05
Chile ◎ exporter06 importer06
China ◎ exporter07 importer07
Colombia ◎ exporter08 importer08
Denmark ◎ exporter09 importer09
Egypt ◎ exporter10 importer10
Finland ◎ exporter11 importer11
France ◎ exporter12 importer12
Greece ◎ exporter13 importer13
Hong Kong ◎ exporter14 importer14
India ◎ exporter15 importer15
Indonesia ◎ exporter16 importer16
Ireland ◎ exporter17 importer17
Italy ◎ exporter18 importer18
Jamaica ◎ exporter19 importer19
Japan ◎ exporter20 importer20
Kenya ◎ exporter21 importer21
Korean ◎ exporter22 importer22
Malaysia ◎ exporter23 importer23
Mexico ◎ exporter24 importer24
Morocco ◎ exporter25 importer25
Netherlands ◎ exporter26 importer26
New Zealand ◎ exporter27 importer27
Norway ◎ exporter28 importer28
Paraguay ◎ exporter29 importer29
Peru ◎ exporter30 importer30
Philippines ◎ exporter31 importer31
56
Portugal ◎ exporter32 importer32
Singapore ◎ exporter33 importer33
Spain ◎ exporter34 importer34
Sweden ◎ exporter35 importer35
Switzerland ◎ exporter36 importer36
Thailand ◎ exporter37 importer37
Turkey ◎ exporter38 importer38
United Kingdom (UK) ◎ exporter39 importer39
Uruguay ◎ exporter40 importer40
United States (USA) ◎ exporter41 importer41
Cameroon ◎ importer42
Note: According the CIA’s The World Factbook 2008, a country is defined as a developed country (a high-income economy) if it’s gross national income (GNI) in year 2005 was higher and equal to $10,726, otherwise denoted as a developing country.
57
Table 12 Regression results for various models
Model PCS FE 3-1 FE 3-2 FE 2
EURO -0.076 (0.072) 0.052 (0.056) 0.074 (0.070) 0.007 (0.041)
NAFTA 0.010 (0.166) 0.796 (0.128)** 2.330 (0.157)** 0.547 (0.147)**
AFTA 2.830 (0.154)** 0.338 (0.119)** 2.662 (0.147)** -0.057 (0.085) MERCOSUR 1.833 (0.126)** 1.993 (0.098)** 4.668 (0.118)** 0.493 (0.093)**
Constant -1.937 (0.150)** -16.861 (3.120)** -36.656 (3.889)** -43.216 (2.026)**
Observations 45865 45865 45865 45865
Parameters 33 129 126 2311
Sum of squares 106009.70 59872.64 93261.84 23574.32
Log-likelihood -84293.12 -71191.52 -81355.01 -49817.02
Adjusted R2 0.7530 0.8602 0.7823 0.9422
AIC 0.8393 0.2721 0.7152 -0.5648
SC 0.8456 0.2967 0.7392 -0.1247
Note: Standard errors are in parentheses. The estimates on year dummies, exporter dummies and importer dummies are omitted here.
** denotes significance at the 5% level. *denotes significance at the 10% level.
58
Table 13 Results from the gravity estimation
–Both exporting and importing countries are developed countries
Model PCS FE 3-1 FE 3-2 FE 2
Adjacency 0.068 (0.052) 0.037 (0.032)
EU -0.143 (0.034)** 0.155 (0.024)** 1.199 0.034 ** 0.012 0.018 **
EURO -0.054 (0.050) 0.166 (0.031)** 0.266 0.047 ** 0.036 0.016 **
NAFTA 1.031 (0.175)** 1.238 (0.105)** 3.083 0.155 ** 0.232 0.123 **
AFTA (dropped) (dropped) (dropped) (dropped)
MERCOSUR (dropped) (dropped) (dropped) (dropped)
Constant -0.906 (0.232)** 14.915 (5.764)** -39.760 8.749 ** 14.546 2.422 **
Observations 10501 10501 10501 10501
Parameters 31 75 72 533
Sum of squares 10585.69 3543.49 8232.37 775.42
Log-likelihood -14942.45 -9196.35 -13622.32 -1218.43
Adjusted R2 0.7511 0.9163 0.8057 0.9809
AIC 0.0139 -1.0721 -0.2297 -2.5043
SC 0.0354 -1.0202 -0.1799 -2.1358
Note: Standard errors are in parentheses. The estimates on year dummies, exporter dummies and importer dummies are omitted here.
** denotes significance at the 5% level. *denotes significance at the 10% level.
59
Table 14 Results from the gravity estimation
–Both exporting and importing countries are developing countries
Model PCS FE 3-1 FE 3-2 FE 2
EU (dropped) (dropped) (dropped) (dropped)
EURO (dropped) (dropped) (dropped) (dropped)
NAFTA (dropped) (dropped) (dropped) (dropped)
AFTA 1.637 (0.237)** -0.417 (0.199)** 3.049 (0.259) ** -0.036 (0.161) MERCOSUR 1.124 (0.157)** 1.214 (0.136)** 3.563 (0.168) ** 0.005 (0.139)
Constant -0.456 (0.391) 14.835 (10.636) 3.630 (14.136) 6.622 (8.089)
Observations 11224 11224 11224 11224
Parameters 30 80 77 620
Sum of squares 35836.66 23185.86 41037.46 12175.29
Log-likelihood -22441.23 -19997.61 -23201.74 -16382.73
Adjusted R2 0.6644 0.7819 0.6141 0.8796
AIC 1.1663 0.7397 1.3102 0.1918
SC 1.1858 0.7920 1.3604 0.5965
Note: Standard errors are in parentheses. The estimates on year dummies, exporter dummies and importer dummies are omitted here.
** denotes significance at the 5% level. *denotes significance at the 10% level.
60
Table 15 Results from the gravity estimation
–Exporting and importing countries are developed countries and developing countries respectively
lnDistance -0.967 (0.022)**
Language 0.621 (0.035)**
Adjacency 1.022 (0.161)**
EU (dropped) (dropped) (dropped) (dropped)
EURO (dropped) (dropped) (dropped) (dropped)
NAFTA -0.456 (0.280) -0.153 (0.194) 1.727 (0.218)** 0.500 (0.192)**
AFTA 3.387 (0.309)** 0.487 (0.215)** 2.878 (0.248)** -0.077 (0.157)
MERCOSUR (dropped) (dropped) (dropped) (dropped)
Constant 0.828 (0.333)** 24.926 (6.410)** 22.448 (7.488)** 8.507 (3.837)**
Observations 14881 14881 14881 14881
Parameters 30 83 80 752
Sum of squares 27767.94 12431.30 16967.43 5138.04
Log-likelihood -25756.58 -19776.92 -22091.50 -13202.90
Adjusted R2 0.6905 0.8610 0.8103 0.9398
AIC 0.6278 -0.1687 0.1420 -0.9623
SC 0.6432 -0.1263 0.1829 -0.5779
Note: Standard errors are in parentheses. The estimates on year dummies, exporter dummies and importer dummies are omitted here.
** denotes significance at the 5% level. *denotes significance at the 10% level.
61
Table 16 Results from the gravity estimation
–Exporting and importing countries are developing countries and developed countries respectively
EU (dropped) (dropped) (dropped) (dropped)
EURO (dropped) (dropped) (dropped) (dropped)
NAFTA -0.055 (0.321) 0.986 (0.243)** 3.038 (0.270)** 1.141 (0.224)**
AFTA 3.323 (0.355)** 0.423 (0.273) 2.778 (0.310)** -0.295 (0.185)
MERCOSUR (dropped) (dropped) (dropped) (dropped)
Constant -6.662 (0.461)** 29.724 (10.303)** 31.620 (11.913)** 14.406 (5.867)**
Observations 9259 9259 9259 9259
Parameters 30 71 68 482
Sum of squares 22491.86 11886.84 15898.17 4319.03
Log-likelihood -17246.90 -14294.57 -15640.70 -9607.66
Adjusted R2 0.7152 0.8488 0.7978 0.9425
AIC 0.8940 0.2652 0.5553 -0.6585
SC 0.9172 0.3199 0.6077 -0.2871
Note: Standard errors are in parentheses. The estimates on year dummies, exporter dummies and importer dummies are omitted here.
** denotes significance at the 5% level. *denotes significance at the 10% level.
62
Table 17 The estimation results with IIT between 0.75 and 1
Model PCS FE 3-1 FE 3-2 FE 2
EURO -0.078 (0.073) 0.050 (0.053) 0.099 (0.078) 0.061 (0.029)**
NAFTA 0.658 (0.130)** 1.035 (0.095)** 2.543 (0.136)** 0.690 (0.078)**
AFTA 2.617 (0.123)** 0.499 (0.090)** 2.220 (0.131)** 0.098 (0.048)**
MERCOSUR 1.642 (0.137)** 1.923 (0.101)** 3.903 (0.144)** 0.601 (0.067)**
Constant -0.308 (0.175)* 17.946 (3.727)** 1.962 (5.492) -8.588 (2.027)**
Observations 15415 15415 15415 15415
Parameters 33 129 126 1902
Sum of squares 17573.98 8316.24 18158.61 1577.98
Log-likelihood -22883.22 -17116.40 -23135.46 -4306.04
Adjusted R2 0.8227 0.9156 0.8157 0.9819
AIC 0.1354 -0.6004 0.1802 -2.0324
SC 0.1517 -0.5364 0.2426 -1.0894
Note: Standard errors are in parentheses. The estimates on year dummies, exporter dummies and importer dummies are omitted here.
** denotes significance at the 5% level. *denotes significance at the 10% level.
63
Table 18 The estimation results with IIT between 0 and 0.25
Model PCS FE 3-1 FE 3-2 FE 2
NAFTA (dropped) (dropped) (dropped) (dropped)
AFTA (dropped) (dropped) (dropped) (dropped)
MERCOSUR 3.383 (0.792)** 2.700 (0.596) 5.447 (0.663)** 0.417 (0.691) Constant -4.919 (0.474)** -40.611 (9.511) -33.891 (10.680)** -52.889 (7.498)**
Observations 9690 9690 9690 9690
Parameters 31 127 124 1221
Sum of squares 41465.41 22716.46 28674.72 10090.93
Log-likelihood -20793.01 -17877.43 -19005.96 -13945.94
Adjusted R2 0.5355 0.7430 0.6757 0.8711
AIC 1.4602 0.8782 1.1105 0.2926
SC 1.4831 0.9723 1.2024 1.1971
Note: Standard errors are in parentheses. The estimates on year dummies, exporter dummies and importer dummies are omitted here.
** denotes significance at the 5% level. *denotes significance at the 10% level.
64
Table 19 The estimation results with IIT between 0. 5 and 0.75
Model PCS FE 3-1 FE 3-2 FE 2
EURO 0.103 (0.102) -0.093 (0.075) 0.040 (0.101) -0.003 (0.051)
NAFTA 0.009 (0.852) 0.814 (0.598) 2.253 (0.812)** 1.621 (0.642)**
AFTA 2.230 (0.324)** 0.000 (0.231) 2.209 (0.311)** -0.114 (0.166) MERCOSUR 1.305 (0.183)** 1.503 (0.135)** 4.417 (0.175)** 0.592 (0.113)**
Constant -0.193 (0.234) -2.650 (4.811) -17.673 (6.536)** -20.986 (3.060)**
Observations 11849 11849 11849 11849
Parameters 33 129 126 1997
Sum of squares 17080.97 8281.43 15305.21 2028.04
Log-likelihood -18979.72 -14690.68 -18329.38 -6355.23
Adjusted R2 0.7782 0.8916 0.7997 0.9684
AIC 0.3713 -0.3365 0.2772 -1.4281
SC 0.3918 -0.2561 0.3557 -0.1843
Note: Standard errors are in parentheses. The estimates on year dummies, exporter dummies and importer dummies are omitted here.
** denotes significance at the 5% level. *denotes significance at the 10% level.
65
Table 20 The estimation results with IIT between 0. 25 and 0.5
Model PCS FE 3-1 FE 3-2 FE 2
EURO -0.193 (0.178) -0.101 (0.131) 0.087 (0.162) -0.049 (0.091)
NAFTA -0.285 (0.393) 0.200 (0.299) 0.957 (0.368)** 0.315 (0.368)
AFTA 1.377 (0.537)** -0.230 (0.392) 2.432 (0.482)** 0.270 (0.279) MERCOSUR 1.264 (0.253)** 1.538 (0.191)** 4.865 (0.217)** -0.003 (0.223)
Constant -2.011 (0.335)** -9.449 (6.643) -4.532 (8.217) -51.863 (4.436)**
Observations 8917 8917 8917 8917
Parameters 33 129 126 1693
Sum of squares 17654.01 8932.67 13678.94 2370.77
Log-likelihood -15697.84 -12660.50 -14560.46 -6746.30
Adjusted R2 0.7048 0.8490 0.7689 0.9513
AIC 0.6904 0.0307 0.4562 -0.9450
SC 0.7167 0.1333 0.5564 0.4022
Note: Standard errors are in parentheses. The estimates on year dummies, exporter dummies and importer dummies are omitted here.
** denotes significance at the 5% level. *denotes significance at the 10% level.