5. Taiwan economic, social and political development and education issues
5.6. Taiwan demographics and immigration policies
5.6.1. Taiwan population distribution by age
國
立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
government to open the door to foreign labor in 1992. Economies of Southeast Asia have been accompanied by an increased demographic connection.
Taiwan had opened its door few years ago to foreign labour, because of a domestic shortage in the workforce. Today the shortage go beyond the labour issue, but concern the whole working population that started to shrink by 180,000 since 2016. At this rhythm the working population could shrink by 20% by 2035, based on 17 millions working people in 2015.
5.6.1. Taiwan population distribution by age
The Taiwan population distribution by age shows an aging population, with a low population under 15. The population structure becomes less triangular and more like an elongated balloon.
If the process continue by a law birth rate the structure will be slowly transform to a tiny base of young and senior as the most representative population.
‧
國立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
Figure 5: Taiwan 2016 population distribution structure by age (source: National Statistics
Taiwan)
Taiwan distribution structure by age match the demographic transition model, in which during the process of industrialisation, countries develop high birth and death rates to lower birth and death rates. Its fertility rate dropped from seven children per woman in the 1950’s to less than one child per woman in 2011. This number is lower than the replacement fertility rate which is typically 2.1-2.2. The consequence is that the population is aging but also decline. To counter the process, Taiwan should either have an increase fertility rate does or solve the issue through mass immigration.
‧
國立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
Figure 6: Taiwan fertility rate and number of births (source: National Statistics Taiwan)
The fertility rate is decreasing since 1951, with its lowest level in 2010 at 0.98. In 2016 the fertility rate has rebounded slightly but still below the 2.2 rate to counter the decline of the population, the macroeconomic condition and political initiative seems not in favour of a stronger increase in the future. The reason cited for the low fertility rate range from, low household income, limited effort from the government to encourage women to have child (maternity leave, subsidies etc.). The cost of education and to raise children is also high. Some estimation place the average household expenditure on children’s education in Taiwan at NT$781,702, as one of the highest in the world15.
15 http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/print/2016/05/16/2003646390
51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 01 06 11 16 7161
‧
國立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
Regarding the immigration, Taiwan did not address the issue in the past, and Asian countries are very conservative regarding immigration compared to western countries. Based on the OECD factbook 2015-2016, the average percentage of foreigners is 7.5% in the western countries, compared to 1.4% in Asian countries.
Based on the 2010 census, foreigners represent 2.4% of the population, therefore beyond the average for Asia (except Singapore and Hong-Kong). In 2016, the estimated population was 23.5 million people and Alien Resident Card (ARC) holders were 671,375 representing 2.85% of the total population. In addition, few foreigners benefit from the dual-citizenship as the law required until now to waive the original nationality to acquire Taiwanese nationality.
‧
Percentage of foreigners in Taiwan and international comparison Percentage of foreigners in the
country
Table 7: Percentage of foreigners in Taiwan and international comparison (sources: OCDE factbook and National Immigration Agency)
From the data from the Taiwan immigration bureau, the total foreigners were 671,375 in 2016, with 93% of then categorized as foreign workers. White collars (engineer, sales, etc) represent therefore 7% of foreigners and 0.2% of the total population.
There has been a considerable rise in the number of ARC holders in Taiwan over the last ten years. However, the increase has come as a result of more foreign labourers entering Taiwan, whereas the remainder, have in fact decreased by roughly 15% in the same period, in spite of an upturn in the last three years.
‧
Figure 7: The total number of ARC holders in Taiwan (source National Immigration Agency)
Figure 8: The number of ARC holders under 15 years old in Taiwan (source: National Immigration Agency)
01-Jan-07 01-Jun-07 01-Nov-07 01-Apr-08 01-Sep-08 01-Feb-09 01-Jul-09 01-Dec-09 01-May-10 01-Oct-10 01-Mar-11 01-Aug-11 01-Jan-12 01-Jun-12 01-Nov-12 01-Apr-13 01-Sep-13 01-Feb-14 01-Jul-14 01-Dec-14 01-May-15 01-Oct-15 01-Mar-16 01-Aug-16
The total number of ARC holders
0
01-Jan-07 01-Jun-07 01-Nov-07 01-Apr-08 01-Sep-08 01-Feb-09 01-Jul-09 01-Dec-09 01-May-10 01-Oct-10 01-Mar-11 01-Aug-11 01-Jan-12 01-Jun-12 01-Nov-12 01-Apr-13 01-Sep-13 01-Feb-14 01-Jul-14 01-Dec-14 01-May-15 01-Oct-15 01-Mar-16 01-Aug-16
The number of ARC holders under 15 yrs old
‧
國立 政 治 大 學
‧
N a tio na
l C h engchi U ni ve rs it y
If we compare the ARC holder under 15 years old, in age of schooling, the number was 7,656 in 2007, with an average of 6,931 on the period 2007-16, and decrease to 5,812 in 2016.
The number of ARC holders under 15 years old Year The number of ARC holders under
15 yrs old
Percentage of under 15 ARC holders
2007-2016 6,931 1.5%
2007 7,656 1.8%
2016 5,812 0.9%
Table 8: The number of ARC holders under age of 15 (source: National Immigration Agency)
However from the data, we cannot identify the children from foreign workers or white collars in Taiwan, as it would have an incidence on schooling in international schools. White collars are more incline to enrol their children in international school and support the tuition fees.
5.6.2. Issues on working force raised by National Development Council (NDC) in