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27
Table 1. The total value of exports in different geographical regions
Unit: Millions of dollars (Percentage)
YEAR 1980 1990 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008
Developing economies
Africa 121,876 110,670 152,143 311,585 372,088 429,089 553,177
(2.99%) (3.18%) (2.36%) (2.97%) (3.07%) (3.07%) (3.45%)
America 111,352 143,808 364,468 573,473 686,022 769,679 885,097
(5.47%) (4.13%) (5.65%) (5.47%) (5.66%) (5.52%) (5.52%)
Eastern Asia 76,165 280,565 774,898 1,538,367 1,846,744 2,186,288 2,475,315
(3.74%) (8.05%) (12.02%) (14.67%) (15.23%) (15.67%) (15.45%)
South-Eastern Asia 73,957 145,284 431,944 652,732 770,6567 864,964 1,003,790
(3.63%) (4.17%) (6.70%) (6.22%) (6.35%) (6.20%) (6.26%)
Developed economies
America 293,549 521,758 1,058,871 1,267,052 1,428,252 1,580,115 1,753,793
(14.43%) (14.98%) (16.42%) (12.08%) (11.78%) (11.32%) (10.94%)
Asia 135,979 299,157 510,653 637,675 696,720 754,603 847,255
(6.68%) (8.59%) (7.92%) (6.08%) (5.74%) (5.41%) (5.29%)
Europe 892,271 1,647,000 2,591,769 4,300,946 4,860,295 5,647,561 6,247,494
(43.85%) (47.28%) (40.19%) (41.01%) (40.07%) (40.46%) (38.98%)
Sources: UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics 2009, UN Yearbook of International Trade Statistics.
Note: Exports are calculated in F.O.B. unit and measured in millions of dollars. The shares of exports relative to the world trade in different regions are in parentheses.
Table 2. The total value of imports in different geographical regions
Unit: Millions of dollars (Percentage)
YEAR 1980 1990 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008
Developing economies
Africa 96,856 101,718 132,878 267,242 312,189 378,503 482,155
(4.66%) (2.83%) (1.99%) (2.48%) (2.52%) (2.66%) (2.95%)
America 123,594 127,275 392,134 531,709 633,841 753,712 902,341
(5.95%) (3.54%) (5.89%) (4.93%) (5.12%) (5.30%) (5.52%)
Eastern Asia 85,536 265,896 742,868 1,411,111 1,647,693 1,910,483 2,210,617
(4.12%) (7.40%) (11.15%) (13.07%) (13.30%) (13.43%) (13.53%)
South-Eastern Asia 65,641 162,292 377,441 594,318 687,976 776,356 948,366
(3.16%) (4.51%) (5.67%) (5.51%) (5.55%) (5.46%) (5.80%)
Developed economies
America 320,210 641,358 1,505,270 2,065,550 2,278,836 2,408,102 2,584,666
(15.42%) (17.84%) (22.59%) (19.14%) (18.40%) (19.92%) (15.82%)
Asia 151,080 252,162 417,197 562,064 629,908 678,868 830,248
(7.27%) (7.01%) (6.26%) (5.21%) (5.09%) (4.77%) (5.08%)
Europe 998,105 1,705,494 2,630,452 4,320,581 4,947,006 5,750,000 6,396,748
(48.06%) (47.44%) (39.48%) (40.03%) (39.93%) (40.41%) (39.15%) Sources: UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics 2009, UN Yearbook of International Trade Statistics.
Note: Imports are calculated in C.I.F. unit and measured in millions of dollars. The shares of imports relative to the world trade in different regions are in parentheses.
29
Table 3. Leading exporters and importers in world merchandise trade, 2008
Unit: Billions of dollars and percentage
Rank Exporters Value Share Annual percentage change
Rank Importers Value Share Annual percentage change
Source: WTO International Trade Statistics 2009 Note: a-Imports are valued f.o.b.,
b- Secretariat estimates,
c- Includes significant re-exports or imports for re-export.
Table 4. Merchandise trade of the United States by origin and destination, 2008
Unit: Billions of dollars and percentage
Exports Imports
Destination Value Share Annual percentage Origin Value Share Annual percentage
2008 2000 2008 2007 2008 2008 2000 2008 2007 2008
Source: WTO International Trade Statistics 2009.
31
Table 5. Merchandise trade of the European Union (27) by origin and destination, 2008
Unit: Billions of dollars and percentage
Exports Imports
Destination Value Share Annual percentage Origin Value Share Annual percentage
2008 2000 2008 2007 2008 2008 2000 2008 2007 2008
Source: WTO International Trade Statistics 2009.
Note: Figures are affected by the "INTRASTAT" system of recording trade between EU member states.
Table 6. Merchandise trade of Japan by origin and destination, 2008
Unit: Billions of dollars and percentage
Exports Imports
Destination Value Share Annual percentage Origin Value Share Annual percentage
2008 2000 2008 2007 2008 2008 2000 2008 2007 2008
Source: WTO International Trade Statistics 2009.
Note: Includes significant shipments recorded as exports to Hong Kong, China with China as final destination.
33
Table 7. Exports of trade groups
Unit: Percentage
YEAR 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008
CEMAC 0.23 0.20 0.16 0.12 0.13 0.22 0.23 0.21 0.25
COMESA 1.67 1.17 0.79 0.44 0.46 0.61 0.66 0.67 0.79
ECOWAS 1.64 0.97 0.66 0.43 0.56 0.64 0.64 0.58 0.63
SADC 1.83 1.29 1.12 0.89 0.82 0.97 1.02 1.08 1.16
CACM 0.24 0.19 0.13 0.17 0.21 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.16
CARICOM 0.57 0.34 0.14 0.11 0.13 0.14 0.16 0.15 0.16
LAIA 4.34 4.88 3.77 4.01 5.14 5.04 5.21 5.10 5.11
MERCOSUR 1.45 1.79 1.33 1.36 1.31 1.56 1.57 1.60 1.74
NAFTA 15.30 17.06 16.13 16.54 18.99 14.12 13.84 13.27 12.76
ASEAN 3.63 3.67 4.17 6.25 6.70 6.22 6.35 6.20 6.26
SAARC 0.68 0.76 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.27 1.31 1.33 1.39
EFTA 2.41 2.45 2.85 2.42 2.22 2.25 2.24 2.26 2.32
EU 41.42 40.69 44.41 42.27 37.95 38.75 37.82 38.20 36.65
Euro zone 30.75 30.23 35.07 33.66 29.64 30.22 29.19 29.87 28.58
APEC 30.83 37.54 38.25 45.46 48.30 44.70 45.07 44.48 44.21
Sources: UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics 2009.
Table 8. Imports of trade groups
Unit: Percentage
YEAR 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008
CEMAC 0.15 0.14 0.10 0.06 0.06 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.09
COMESA 1.13 1.17 0.99 0.63 0.53 0.63 0.62 0.68 0.85
ECOWAS 1.23 0.74 0.39 0.37 0.34 0.45 0.46 0.49 0.51
SADC 1.55 1.01 0.96 0.92 0.74 0.94 1.00 1.00 1.01
CACM 0.29 0.25 0.18 0.25 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32
CARICOM 0.69 0.39 0.20 0.19 0.21 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.19
LAIA 4.54 3.25 2.96 4.13 5.07 4.23 4.42 4.60 4.81
MERCOSUR 1.82 0.95 0.81 1.53 1.35 1.06 1.14 1.29 1.58
NAFTA 16.45 22.22 19.02 19.37 25.32 21.27 20.55 18.99 17.69
ASEAN 3.16 3.27 4.51 6.78 5.66 5.50 5.55 5.45 5.80
SAARC 1.26 1.38 1.09 1.15 1.21 1.82 1.92 2.00 2.31
EFTA 2.61 2.32 2.74 2.19 1.81 1.72 1.70 1.74 1.70
EU 45.43 40.11 44.67 40.56 37.64 38.28 38.21 38.64 37.42
Euro zone 34.33 29.67 34.75 31.53 28.45 28.66 28.27 28.75 27.99
APEC 32.25 39.79 39.08 46.52 50.13 47.60 47.19 45.69 45.51
Sources: UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics 2009.
Table 9. Variables and data sources
Variables Descriptions Sources
Real Bilateral Exports (Xijt) Measured in millions of US dollars.
Distance (DISTij) Measured in kilometers. www.indo.com Language Dummy
Adjacency Dummy (ADJij) 1 if two trading countries share a border. the same trade bloc in year t.
Table 10. List of 41 exporting and 57 importing countries
Argentina (56) Honduras (0)# Panama (0)# Australia (56) Hong Kong (56) Paraguay (52) Austria (56) Iceland (0)# Peru (54) Brazil (56) India (56) Philippines (56) Cameroon (0)# Indonesia (56) Portugal (56) Canada (56) Ireland (56) Singapore (56) Chile (56) Italy (56) South Africa (0)# China (56) Jamaica (50) Spain (56) Colombia (56) Japan (56) Sweden (56) Costa Rica (0)# Kenya (55) Switzerland (56) Cote d’Ivoire (0)# Korea (56) Thailand (56) Denmark (56) Malaysia (56) Tunisia (0)# Ecuador (0)# Mexico (56) Turkey (56)
Egypt (56) Morocco (56) United Kingdom (56) El Salvador (0)# Netherlands (56) United States (56) Finland (56) New Zealand (56) Uruguay (56)
France (56) Nicaragua (0)# Venezuela (0)# Germany (0)# Nigeria (0)# Zambia (0)#
Greece (56) Norway (56) Zimbabwe (0)#
Note: The data set of 2282 trading country pairs includes 41 exporting and 57 importing countries over the period 1986-2008. For each country, the number in the bracket denotes the number of its export destinations in the data set. # denotes a country that is a trade destination but not trade origin country in the data set.
Table 11. Trade blocs and selected member countries
Trade bloc Year
enforced Member countries
EU (27) 1957
Belgium (1950), France (1950)*, Germany (1950)*, Italy (1950)*, Luxembourg (1950) , The Netherlands (1950), Denmark (1973)*, Ireland (1973)*, The United Kingdom (1973)*, Greece (1981)*, Spain (1986)*, Portugal (1986)*, Austria (1995)*, Finland (1995)*, Sweden (1995)*, Czech Republic (2004), Cyprus (2004), Estonia (2004), Latvia (2004), Lithuania (2004), Hungary (2004), Malta (2004), Poland (2004), Slovenia (2004), Slovakia (2004), Bulgaria (2007), Romania (2007).
EURO (16) 1999
Austria (1999)*, Belgium (1999), Finland (1999) *, France (1999)*, Germany (1999)*, Ireland (1999)*, Italy (1999)*, Luxembourg (1999), Netherlands (1999)*, Portugal (1999)*, Spain (1999)*, Greece (2001)*, Slovenia (2007), Cyprus (2008), Malta (2008), Slovakia (2009).
NAFTA (3) 1989 Canada (1989)*, USA (1989)*, and Mexico (1994)*.
AFTA (10) 2002
Brunei Darussalam (2002), Cambodia (2002), Indonesia (2002)*, Laos (2002), Malaysia (2002)*, Myanmar (2002), Philippines (2002)*, Singapore (2002)*, Thailand (2002)*, Viet Nam (2002).
MERCOSUR (5) 1994 Argentina (1994)*, Brazil (1994)*, Paraguay (1994)*, Uruguay (1994)*, Venezuela (2006)*.
Note: Total number of member countries of each trade bloc is shown in a parenthesis in column one. In column three the member in a parenthesis is the year when a member country enters into the trade bloc. * denotes a country that is selected member in the data set.
Table 12. List of developed and developing countries and country dummies
Argentina ◎ exporter01 importer01
Australia ◎ exporter02 importer02
Austria ◎ exporter03 importer03
Brazil ◎ exporter04 importer04
Canada ◎ exporter05 importer05
Chile ◎ exporter06 importer06
China ◎ exporter07 importer07
Colombia ◎ exporter08 importer08
Denmark ◎ exporter09 importer09
Egypt ◎ exporter10 importer10
Finland ◎ exporter11 importer11
France ◎ exporter12 importer12
Greece ◎ exporter13 importer13
Hong Kong ◎ exporter14 importer14
India ◎ exporter15 importer15
Indonesia ◎ exporter16 importer16
Ireland ◎ exporter17 importer17
Italy ◎ exporter18 importer18
Jamaica ◎ exporter19 importer19
Japan ◎ exporter20 importer20
Kenya ◎ exporter21 importer21
Korea ◎ exporter22 importer22
Malaysia ◎ exporter23 importer23
Mexico ◎ exporter24 importer24
Morocco ◎ exporter25 importer25
Netherlands ◎ exporter26 importer26
New Zealand ◎ exporter27 importer27
Norway ◎ exporter28 importer28
Paraguay ◎ exporter29 importer29
Peru ◎ exporter30 importer30
Philippines ◎ exporter31 importer31
Portugal ◎ exporter32 importer32
Singapore ◎ exporter33 importer33
Spain ◎ exporter34 importer34
Sweden ◎ exporter35 importer35
Switzerland ◎ exporter36 importer36
Thailand ◎ exporter37 importer37
Turkey ◎ exporter38 importer38
United Kingdom (UK) ◎ exporter39 importer39
Uruguay ◎ exporter40 importer40
United States (USA) ◎ exporter41 importer41
Cameroon ◎ importer42
Note: 1. According to the CIA’s The World Factbook 2009, a country is defined as a developed country (a high-income economy) if it’s gross national income (GNI) in year 2005 was higher and equal to $10,726, otherwise denoted as a developing country.
2. According to the World Bank Atlas method, a country is defined as a developed country (a high-income economy) if it’s gross national income (GNI) in year 2009 was higher and equal to $12,196, otherwise denoted as a developing country.
Table 13. Main regression results for various models
Model PCS FE3-1 FE3-2 FE2 FEG
lnY_it 1.166 (0.015) ** 1.316 (0.062) ** 1.386 (0.071) ** 1.290 (0.046) ** 1.290 (0.046) **
lnY_jt 0.795 (0.015) ** 1.278 (0.063) ** 1.308 (0.073) ** 1.248 (0.047) ** 1.248 (0.047) **
lnN_it -0.066 (0.016) ** 0.090 (0.069) 0.047 (0.079) 0.159 (0.051) ** 0.159 (0.051) **
lnN_jt 0.104 (0.015) ** 0.090 (0.158) 0.294 (0.180) 0.354 (0.118) ** 0.354 (0.118) **
lnDist_ij -0.886 (0.014) ** -1.300 (0.013) **
LANG_ij 0.748 (0.025) ** 0.765 (0.024) **
ADJ_ij 0.287 (0.058) ** -0.280 (0.049) **
RESTRICTIONS_it 0.017 (0.001) ** 0.019 (0.001) ** 0.016 (0.002) ** 0.020 (0.001) ** 0.020 (0.001) **
RESTRICTIONS_jt 0.020 (0.001) ** 0.012 (0.001) ** 0.011 (0.001) ** 0.012 (0.001) ** 0.012 (0.001) **
SIMILAR_ijt 0.625 (0.108) ** -2.800 (0.112) ** -1.520 (0.128) ** -4.277 (0.496) ** -4.277 (0.496) **
IIT_ijt 1.573 (0.033) ** 1.088 (0.028) ** 1.841 (0.031) ** 0.839 (0.027) ** 0.839 (0.027) **
BOTHDEVELOPED_ijt -0.376 (0.037) ** -2.850 (0.253) ** -2.308 (0.289) ** (drop) -1.457 (0.853) **
BOTHDEVELOPING_ijt 0.163 (0.035) ** 2.403 (0.252) ** 2.549 (0.289) ** (drop) 1.907 (0.792) **
EU_ijt -0.608 (0.053) ** -0.430 (0.047) ** 1.001 (0.051) ** -0.015 (0.067) -0.015 (0.067)
EURO_ijt 0.116 (0.084) 0.128 (0.071) 0.180 (0.081) 0.061 (0.059) 0.061 (0.059) NAFTA_ijt -0.132 (0.198) ** 0.807 (0.166) ** 2.235 (0.186) ** 0.688 (0.223) ** 0.688 (0.223) **
AFTA_ijt 2.171 (0.174) ** 0.066 (0.145) 2.259 (0.165) ** -0.278 (0.122) -0.278 (0.122) MERCOSUR_ijt 2.018 (0.149) ** 1.967 (0.125) ** 4.285 (0.138) ** 0.416 (0.137) ** 0.416 (0.137) **
Constant -1.587 (0.262) ** -9.170 (3.141) ** -25.498 (3.588) ** -22.503 (2.211) -30.173 (2.254) **
Observations 52486 52486 52486 52486 52486
Parameters 40 135 132 2316 2316
Sum of squares 170494.402 112546.673 147393.020 58178.010 58178.010
Adjusted R2 0.711 0.809 0.749 0.896 0.896
AIC 4.097 3.685 3.955 3.119 3.119
BIC -324268.220 -343377.407 -330326.837 -351829.405 -350793.625
Note: Standard errors in parentheses. **Significant at the 5 percent level.
exporter importer REI αi αj αi+αj αij αij is higher Singapore AFTA 1.8197 5.0471 6.8668 10.8646 yes Thailand AFTA 1.8197 1.3682 3.1880 5.5325 yes
Malaysia AFTA 4.3917 1.8439 6.2356 10.4357 yes Philippines AFTA 4.3917 1.4508 5.8425 8.5569 yes Table 14. Estimated exporter and importer dummies and country-pair dummies
Greece EU 2.0962 3.1177 5.2139 4.8971 no
Ireland EU 0.9040 3.0636 3.9676 3.7335 no
Ireland EU 2.0936 3.0636 5.1572 4.9741 no
Italy EU 0.8257 1.7804 2.6062 1.5117 no Paraguay MERCOSUR 0.0000 1.7495 1.7495 6.3459 yes Uruguay MERCOSUR 0.0000 1.6048 1.6048 6.0521 yes Venezuela MERCOSUR 0.0000 1.3258 1.3258 3.5690 yes Brazil Argentina MERCOSUR -0.3732 0.0000 -0.3732 2.3955 yes
Paraguay MERCOSUR -0.3732 1.7495 1.3764 5.5031 yes Uruguay MERCOSUR -0.3732 1.6048 1.2316 4.2395 yes
Venezuela MERCOSUR -0.3732 1.3258 0.9526 2.2326 yes Paraguay Argentina MERCOSUR -0.2507 0.0000 -0.2507 4.8935 yes
Brazil MERCOSUR -0.2507 -0.2995 -0.5502 3.9855 yes Uruguay MERCOSUR -0.2507 1.6048 1.3541 9.1787 yes Venezuela MERCOSUR -0.2507 1.3258 1.0751 3.8171 yes Uruguay Argentina MERCOSUR 0.5366 0.0000 0.5366 4.7855 yes
Brazil MERCOSUR 0.5366 -0.2995 0.2371 3.3606 yes Paraguay MERCOSUR 0.5366 1.7495 2.2861 4.2751 yes Venezuela MERCOSUR 0.5366 1.3258 1.8624 3.8423 yes Venezuela Argentina MERCOSUR 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 --- no
Brazil MERCOSUR 0.0000 -0.2995 -0.2995 ---- yes Paraguay MERCOSUR 0.0000 1.7495 1.7495 ---- no Uruguay MERCOSUR 0.0000 1.6048 1.6048 ---- no Canada Mexico NAFTA 0.9641 0.1550 1.1191 2.4431 yes
USA NAFTA 0.9641 1.2536 2.2177 1.6793 no Mexico Canada NAFTA -1.2875 2.1260 0.8385 2.8103 yes USA NAFTA -1.2875 1.2536 -0.0339 2.1387 yes USA Canada NAFTA 0.0000 2.1260 2.1260 1.6409 no
Mexico NAFTA 0.0000 0.1550 0.1550 1.8679 yes