• 沒有找到結果。

7. Demand forecast and revenue streams

7.3. Transaction fee

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Note 1 Market share is total number of users/ target universe

Note 2 Each household only needs one membership to the system. Therefore, we transfer the total number of users into the total number of households by dividing the former by 3, which is the average number of people in a household (data from the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics)

7.2. Sales of nutrition modules

There are surveys about how many Apps does one user download on average available, however we think that data is not applicable, given the fact that the nutrition modules are all health related and those surveys have a broader scope.

The intention of buying nutrition modules are more like buying health books, which is

looking for a solution for daily health enhancement. Purchases are most likely to happen after readers finish reading a health related book and wish to try the diet plans discussed in the book through our system. Also, since different diet plans for each category of patient are described in the book, we will design different modules according to the relevant theory to carry out a tailored plan for each member of the family. Taking both of the above two factors into consideration; we assume that each paid version subscriber will purchase 1 modules annually.

The calculation for that revenue stream as follows

Table 9: Sales of nutrition module

Note that the price is 200NTD per modules, and the expected profit is 100NTD per download after development cost and profit sharing with knowledge owner.

7.3. Transaction fee

To estimate the income from transaction fees, we will use the same approach but a different

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target universe, which is the food item transaction volume online.

To obtain that volume, we first look at the total online market volume. The total volume was 430 billion NTD in year 201113,this figure has been growing at almost double digit

percentages in recent years and it is expected to continue growing. Considering the recent economy slowdown and the fact that this market might reach it’s mature stage, we assume it’s growing speed to be 10% from 2013 to 2015.

As for the proportion of food and grocery items in the market, according to the survey from Ministry of Economy Affaire, the percentage was 3.9 at the year 2008.14 Therefore, we assume that percentage to stay at the same level of 4% throughout the first five years of operation.

From the above, we obtain the market universe in dollar amounts by multiplying the above values.

Under the same logic, we need the “Need%”, Distribution level, and awareness level to determine market share. The distribution level will be the same as that of “PC users but not Smart phone/tablet users” as the channel is the same- the website and PPC advertisement that lead user to the website. The awareness will be the same as well, because the concept of this service is being promoted at the same time.

However, the “Need%”, or in other words, the percentage of people using this function will be different. As mentioned, the shopping function is available in free version. The factors needed to determine the “Need %” are related to the consumers purchasing behavior.

13http://techorange.com/2011/11/11/rapid-growth-of-online-shopping-price-comparison-service-into-t he-next-trend/

14 財團法人資訊工業策進會(2008), B2C 網路商店經營調查報告,經濟部97年度電子商務法制及

基礎環境建構計畫, P.26

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In order to determine the Need%, we need to first look the main reasons for people to shop food online.

Some of them do so to buy things that are available only in some regions. Some do so to replace daily ingredient shopping.

Where our system has competitive advantage is the daily ingredient shopping for

organic/food. Given the fact the shopping for ordinary food is convenient in Taiwan, but organic/healthy food is not easy to get access to. Our system, linking different organic/health food sellers together with other related providers, can solve such consumers’ common difficulty of sourcing for everything at the same place. Therefore, we believe our system will be highly needed in this category. We believe, under proper promotion and educating public, the Need% for this system in this category of customers will be 50%.

For the rest of the market, where we might be indifference with other competitors, we assume only 5% of the customers will need us.

Although we don’t have data, but given the fact that healthy/organic food is not the main stream, we will assume the percentage of healthy/organic food in the food online shopping market is 20%, and the rest is 80%. And base on the need assumption, the Need% will be 14%.

The following is related calculation.

Table 10: The online buyer but not dieter’s need ratio Percentage in food

online market

Need% Total Need%

Organic/health food 20% 50% 14%

The rest 80% 5%

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The following is calculations base on the above assumptions.

Table 11: Revenue from transaction fee

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