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ҁፕЎளаճֹԋǴ२ӃाགᖴךޑࡰᏤ௲ɡդԽ௲ǴҗܭԴৣ Јޑ௲ᏤǴ٬ך೭ٿԃٰڙؼӭǴόӧᏢೌԖ܌ԏᛘǴ׳ᏢΑӭࡑΓ ೀШޑၰǹགᖴα၂ہࡼቼᡕ௲аϷමࡌሎ௲ǴӧᕷԆϐύኘޜຑ᎙ፕ ЎǴόսࡰрךࣴزޑόىϐೀаϷගٮӭᝊޑࡌǴ٬ளፕЎϣϷࢎ ᄬૈ׳уֹ๓Ƕ གᖴች㧌ᏢۆǵཫറᏢߏǵڂՙᏢߏǵ࣑Ꮲۆǵ☰ॳᏢۊ๏ϒךӧፕЎ ޑڐշǴձགᖴཫറᏢߏӧࣴز௲ΑךࡐӭǴჹܭךӧፕЎޑᅪൽǴਔத ගٮޑᢀᗺǴЪᕴૈӧךைਔࣁךှൽǴӢࣁԖգޑᔅԆǴ٬ளךૈ ճޑֹԋፕЎǹགᖴࡹଈᏢߏǵඵࣁᏢߏǵػໜᏢߏǵЎߪᏢߏаϷ໋๔Ꮲߏ ೭ٿԃٰޑྣ៝ǹགᖴ٫ᑉǵ٫ᐇǵҺῑǵნጩǵሎᇬǵϘണǵדയکγര೭ٿ ԃٰޑᜢЈᆶႴᓰǴόᆅࢂӧᏢᗋࢂғࢲᔅԆΑךࡐӭǴΨӢࣁԖգ ॺǴࣴز࠻္кᅈΑઢǴ๏ΑךӭऍӳޑӣᏫǶᗋԖёངޑᏢۂॺǴቼ ࣤǵۏ։ǵ܃զǵٍػаϷችۇǴᖴᖴգॺᕴࢂ๏ךӭઢǶ നाགᖴޑࢂךനᒃངޑৎΓǴᖴᖴݿ༰ගٮךঁคኁคቾޑ᠐ਜᕉნǴ ᡣךόѸᏼЈᏢޑ٣Ǵᕴࢂคค৷ޑࣁךбрǴ๏ךޭۓᆶᜢᚶǹᖴᖴঢঢǵ ۊۊჹךၡޑЍϷႴᓰǴ٬ךԖ୲Πѐޑ߿ǴᖴᖴգॺǶ നࡕǴाᖴᖴ܌ԖᜢЈךǵමᔅշၸךޑΓǴӢࣁԖգॺޑႴᓰǴךωள аᕇளᅺγᏢՏޑᄪᝬǶӧԜǴаԜፕЎ๏܌ԖᜢЈךǵᔅշךޑΓǶ ᚑذԹ ठ ύ҇୯ΐΜΖԃϤДᄔा
ӭεࠠྗϯԋ൩ෳᡍ٬ҔᚒಔԄෳᡍຑᏢғޑᏢಞԋਏǴ೭٤εࠠ ྗϯԋ൩ෳᡍத٬Ҕ၂ᚒϸᔈፕࡌҥӅӕໆЁǴՠᚒಔԄෳᡍၗऩ٬Ҕ၂ᚒ ϸᔈፕϩǴ߾۹ౣᚒಔϣ၂ᚒ໔ޑ࣬ᜢԶቹៜୖኧीϐਏ݀Ƕ ҁࣴزаᚒಔϸᔈፕϩᚒಔԄෳᡍၗǴၸኳᔕࣴزӧۓᗕό ಔीᆶѳᑽόֹӄ༧ीٿᅿϯीΠϐϯਏ݀Ǵ٠ଞჹόӕڙ၂Γ ኧǵᚒಔኧǵᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧаϷۓᗕКٯѤᅿᡂǴКၨ၂ᚒୖኧϷڙ၂ޣૈ ΚୖኧϐीᆒྗࡋǶ ҁࣴز่݀วǺ 1. аڙ၂Γኧٰ࣮Ǵ၂ᚒୖኧीᇤৡᒿቚуԶ෧Ͽǹ 2. аᚒಔኧٰ࣮ǴڰۓෳᡍߏࡋਔǴڙ၂ޣૈΚୖኧीᇤৡᒿᚒಔኧޑ ቚуԶ෧Ͽǹ 3. аᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧٰ࣮Ǵڙ၂ޣૈΚୖኧीᇤৡᒿᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧᡂε Զቚуǹ 4. аۓᗕКٯٰ࣮ǴڰۓෳᡍߏࡋਔǴڙ၂ޣૈΚୖኧᆶ၂ᚒୖኧीᇤৡ ᒿۓᗕКٯޑቚуԶ෧Ͽǹ 5. аόӕϯीٰ࣮ǴNEAT ϯीܭ၂ᚒ᠘ձࡋୖኧϷڙ၂ޣૈΚୖኧ ीᆒྗࡋᓬܭ BIB ϯीǶ ᜢᗖӷǺෳᡍϯǵᚒಔǵᚒಔϸᔈፕǵѳᑽόֹӄ༧ीǵۓᗕόಔ ीAbstract
Testlet items are widely used in large-scale standardized achievement tests to evaluate the learning achievements of the students. Generally, the item response models are used to establish the common scales in these large-scale tests; nevertheless, fitting standard item response models to testlet responses ignores the local dependence between the items within a testlet, the item parameters estimate may be biased.
The purpose of this paper is to use to evaluate the linking performances of balanced incomplete block (BIB) design and non-equivalent groups with anther test design (NEAT) for horizontal equating designs based on the testlet model by using the simulation data. The factors taken into consideration include the following: the sample sizes, the number of the testlets, the variances of the testlet effects, and the ratios of anchor items.
The results of simulation study show that:
1. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the item parameters decrease as the sample sizes increase.
2. The RMSE of the ability parameters decrease as the number of the testlets increase. 3. The RMSE of the ability parameters increase as the variances of testlet effects
increase.
4. The RMSE of the item parameters decrease as the ratios of the anchor items increase.
5. The NEAT design outperforms the BIB design in estimating the item discrimination parameters and the ability parameters.
Keywords: test equating, testlet, testlet response theory, balanced incomplete block design, nonequivalent groups with anchor test design
Ҟᒵ
ಃക ᆣፕ... 1 ಃ ࣴزᐒᆶҞޑ...1 ಃΒ ࡑเୢᚒ...3 ಃΟ Ӝຒှញ...4 ಃΒക Ў... 5 ಃ ᚒಔᆶֽ၂ᚒ٩ᒘޑཷۺ ...5 ಃΒ ᚒಔϸᔈፕ...12 ಃΟ ෳᡍϯޑཀကᆶᅿᜪ...19 ಃѤ ෳᡍϯी...21 ಃΟക ࣴزीᆶБݤ... 24 ಃ ࣴزࢬำ...24 ಃΒ ኳᔕჴᡍϐᡂी...25 ಃΟ ෳᡍϯी...27 ಃѤ ኳᔕჴᡍᡯ...31 ಃϖ ຑБݤ...31 ಃϤ ࣴزπڀ...32 ಃѤക ࣴز่݀... 34 ಃ BIB ϯीϐୖኧी่݀...34 ಃΒ NEAT ϯीϐୖኧी่݀...41 ಃΟ BIB ᆶ NEAT ϯीϐୖኧी่݀Кၨ ...48 ಃϖക ่ፕᆶࡌ... 57 ಃ ่ፕ...57 ಃΒ ࡌ...59 ୖԵЎ... 61 ύЎϩ...61 मЎϩ...62 ߕᒵ όӕᡂϐୖኧीᇤৡ... 69 ߕᒵΒ NEAT ϯीϯࡕी่݀ ...73߄Ҟᒵ!
߄ 2-1 NEAT ϯी...23 ߄ 3-1 ኳᔕၗᡂۓ...25 ߄ 3-2 BIB ϯीᚒҁଛ߄...28 ߄ 3-3 ۓᗕ၂ᚒኧᆶᕴ၂ᚒኧჹྣ߄ ...29 ߄ 3-4 BIB ϯीΓኧჹྣ߄...29 ߄ 3-5 NEAT ϯीᚒҁଛ߄...29 ߄ 3-6 NEAT ϯीӧόӕۓᗕКٯϐ࣬ᜢᚒኧჹྣ߄...30 ߄ 3-7 NEAT ϯीΓኧჹྣ߄...30 ߄ 4-1 BIB ϯीϐୖኧी่݀...35 ߄ 4-2 NEAT ϯीϐୖኧी่݀ ...42 ߄ 4-3 NEAT ϯीܭۓᗕᚒᆶߚۓᗕᚒϐ၂ᚒୖኧी่݀ ...51კҞᒵ
კ 3-1 ࣴزࢬำკ...24 კ 4-1 BIB ϯीΠǴόӕڙ၂Γኧჹܭ၂ᚒ᠘ձࡋୖኧϐीᇤৡ ...37 კ 4-2 BIB ϯीΠǴόӕڙ၂Γኧჹܭ၂ᚒᜤࡋୖኧϐीᇤৡ ...37 კ 4-3 BIB ϯीΠǴόӕڙ၂Γኧჹܭ၂ᚒෳࡋୖኧϐीᇤৡ ...37 კ 4-4 BIB ϯीΠǴόӕڙ၂ΓኧჹܭૈΚୖኧϐीᇤৡ ...38 კ 4-5 BIB ϯीΠǴόӕᚒಔኧჹܭ၂ᚒ᠘ձࡋୖኧϐीᇤৡ ...39 კ 4-6 BIB ϯीΠǴόӕᚒಔኧჹܭ၂ᚒᜤࡋୖኧϐीᇤৡ ...39 კ 4-7 BIB ϯीΠǴόӕᚒಔኧჹܭ၂ᚒෳࡋୖኧϐीᇤৡ ...39 კ 4-8 BIB ϯीΠǴόӕᚒಔኧჹܭૈΚୖኧϐीᇤৡ ...40 კ 4-9 NEAT ϯीΠǴόӕۓᗕКٯჹܭ၂ᚒ᠘ձࡋୖኧϐीᇤৡ...46 კ 4-10 NEAT ϯीΠǴόӕۓᗕКٯჹܭ၂ᚒᜤࡋୖኧϐीᇤৡ...46 კ 4-11 NEAT ϯीΠǴόӕۓᗕКٯჹܭ၂ᚒෳࡋୖኧϐीᇤৡ...47 კ 4-12 NEAT ϯीΠǴόӕۓᗕКٯჹܭૈΚୖኧϐीᇤৡ...47 კ 4-13 όӕϯीჹܭ၂ᚒ᠘ձࡋୖኧϐीᇤৡ...48 კ 4-14 όӕϯीჹܭ၂ᚒᜤࡋୖኧϐीᇤৡ...49 კ 4-15 όӕϯीჹܭ၂ᚒෳࡋୖኧϐीᇤৡ...49 კ 4-16 όӕϯीჹܭૈΚୖኧϐीᇤৡ...50ಃകʳ ᆣፕ
ಃʳ ࣴزᐒᆶҞޑ
җܭᒧᚒ܈ࢂߚᚒޑෳᡍᚒࠠѝૈෳໆڙ၂ޣޑᏫૈΚǴᐽഓఘȐ2009ȑ ࡰрᒧᚒᆶ໒ܫԄୢᚒ࣬КǴၨᜤෳໆډᏢғਜቪ߄ၲǵکಔᙃޑૈΚǴ ᆶჴբຑໆȐperformance assessmentȑ࣬КǴᒧᚒคݤෳໆډȨȩȐdoingȑ ޑૈΚǴԶࢂߚᚒکᒧᚒኬǴࡐᜤෳໆډᏢғਜቪ߄ၲǵǵಔᙃکȨȩ ޑૈΚǴࡺ EbelȐ1951ȑගраნ٩ᒘޑ၂ᚒȐcontext-dependent item setȑ ٰှ،೭ᜪޑୢᚒǶԶ HaladynaȐ1992ȑᔠຎӭ࣬ᜢࣴزࡕǴᇡࣁ೭ᜪࠠޑෳ ᡍόёаԖਏෳໆډόӕᜪࠠޑଯቫԛࡘԵȐhigher order thinkingȑǴЪҔܭ ӚᅿෳᡍᜪࠠǴٯӵǺᒧᚒ܈ࡌᄬϸᔈᚒȐconstructed-response itemsȑǶნ٩ᒘޑ၂ᚒǴࢂࡰಔᏱԖӅӕڈᐟȐstimuliȑ܈ૻ৲ٰྍޑ၂ᚒ ȐAllen & Sudweeks, 2001; Haladyna, 1992; Lee, 2000ȑǴٯӵǺ᎙᠐ෳᡍǵკТǵ ኧᏵ߄ǹWainerᆶKielyȐ1987ȑஒԜᅿᜪࠠޑ၂ᚒᆀࣁᚒಔȐtestletȑǶ
җܭᚒಔԄෳᡍόёаԖਏෳໆډόӕᜪࠠޑଯቫԛࡘԵǴЪҔܭӚᅿ ෳ ᡍ ᜪ ࠠ Ǵ Ӣ Ԝ Ǵ ୯ ϣ Ѧ ޑ ௲ ػ Ј ෳ ᡍ а Ϸ ӭ ε ࠠ ྗ ϯ ԋ ൩ ෳ ᡍ Ȑstandardized achievement educational testȑࣣ٬ҔᚒಔԄෳᡍٰຑໆᏢғޑᏢಞ ԋਏǴٯӵǺԎᅽෳᡍȐThe Test of English as a Foreign Language, TOFELȑǵᏢೌ ຑໆෳᡍȐScholastic Assessment Test, SATȑǵऍ୯୯ৎ௲ػຑໆȐNational Assessment of Educational Progress, NAEPȑǵ୯ሞᏢғຑໆȐThe Programme for International Student Assessment, PISAȑ Ϸ ୯ ሞ ᎙ ᠐ ว ࣴ ز Ȑ Progress of International Reading Literacy Study, PIRLSȑǵ୯ϣޑ୯ύ୷ҁᏢΚෳᡍϷεᏢᏢ ࣽૈΚෳᡍǶ
ᡍޑၗϩǴӭ୯ϣѦޑεࠠྗϯԋ൩ෳᡍࣣ٬Ҕ၂ᚒϸᔈፕՉၗ ϩаࡌҥӅӕໆЁǶฅԶǴа၂ᚒϸᔈፕٰϩෳᡍၗǴѸ಄ӝൂӛࡋ ȐunidimensionalityȑаϷֽᐱҥ܄Ȑlocal independenceȑ೭ٿঁ୷ҁଷǴՠ ӧRosenbaumȐ1988ȑޑࣴزᡉҢᚒಔԄෳᡍ่ᄬၴϸΑֽᐱҥ܄ޑଷǴӢ ԜǴᚒಔԄෳᡍၗ٬Ҕ၂ᚒϸᔈፕٰϩਔǴ۹ౣᚒಔ၂ᚒϣޑ࣬ᜢǴ߾ ଯڙ၂ޣૈΚୖኧЪ၂ᚒୖኧౢғୃޑȐWainer, 1995; Wainer & Lukhele, 1997; Wainer, Sireci, & Thissen, 1991; Wainer & Thissen, 1996; Wainer & Wang, 2000; Yen, 1993ȑǶҗܭॊϐୢᚒǴԖᏢޣࡌஒᚒಔຎࣁঁӭᗺीϩ ၂ᚒǴаӭᗺीϩޑБԄٰीᆉ၀ᚒಔޑளϩǴ٠аӭᗺीϩኳԄٰϩᚒಔԄ ෳᡍၗǴWainerȐ1995ȑᇡࣁԜБݤӧҽෳᡍх֖ၨଯКٯޑᐱҥ၂ᚒЪڀ Ԗࡋޑᚒಔਏ݀ਔΨҔǶՠࢂǴऩஒᚒಔຎࣁঁӭᗺीϩ၂ᚒٰϩǴ ߾഼Ѩࢌ٤ૻ৲ǴЪคݤߥ੮၂ᚒୖኧޑཷۺȐWang & Wilson, 2005ȑǶ ӢԜǴᏢޣගраᚒಔϸᔈፕȐtestlet response theory, TRTȑٰϩᚒಔԄ ෳᡍၗǶᚒಔϸᔈፕࢂ၂ᚒϸᔈፕϐۯ՜ǴځኳԄуΕঁᒿᐒਏ݀ǴҔ ٰ߄Ңڙ၂ޣᆶӚᚒಔ၂ᚒ໔ޑҬϕբҔǴԶԜᒿᐒਏ݀ޑᡂ౦ኧǴջж߄ᚒಔ ϣ၂ᚒ࣬٩ޑำࡋǶ٬ҔᚒಔϸᔈፕٰϩᚒಔԄෳᡍၗǴёᗉխаӭᗺी ϩኳԄٰϩΒϡीϩᚒಔԄෳᡍၗ܌ԋޑલѨǴ٠ߥ੮၂ᚒୖኧޑཷۺǴ ளډ׳ᆒྗޑୖኧीȐBradlow, Wainer, & Wang, 1999; Wainer, Bradlow, & Du, 2000; Wainer, Bradlow, & Wang, 2007; Wang & Wilson, 2005ȑǶ
ԜѦǴӭεࠠྗϯԋ൩ෳᡍࣣ٬ҔᚒಔԄෳᡍٰຑໆᏢғޑᏢಞԋਏǴ ਥᏵၸѐޑࣴزᡉҢǴεࠠྗϯԋ൩ෳᡍࣣ٬Ҕ၂ᚒϸᔈፕՉၗϩа ࡌҥӅӕໆЁǴځෳᡍᚒҁೱ่ीεϩ௦Ҕѳᑽόֹӄ༧ीȐbalanced incomplete block design, BIBȑϷۓᗕόಔीȐnonequivalent groups with anchor test design, NEATȑ ٿ ᅿ ϯ ी Ƕ ٯ ӵ Ǻ ഞ Ԁ ᆕ ӝ ෳ ᡍ Ȑ Massachusetts comprehensive assessment system, MCASȑ௦ҔNEATϯीǴԶើޑPPON
Ȑ Periodiek Peilingsonderzoek van het Onderwijs ȑ ǵ ऍ ୯ ୯ ৎ ௲ ػ ຑ ໆ ȐNational Assessment of Educational Progress, NAEPȑаϷѠᏢғᏢಞԋ൩ຑໆ ၗȐTaiwan Assessment of Student Achievement, TASAȑϐࡌीฝࣣ௦ҔBIB ϯीȐЦཫറǴ2006ȑǹฅԶǴᚒಔԄෳᡍၗऩ٬Ҕ၂ᚒϸᔈፕٰϩǴ ቹៜୖኧीޑᆒྗࡋǴЪ࣬ᜢЎϿԖଞჹεࠠྗϯԋ൩ෳᡍ٬Ҕᚒಔϸ ᔈፕՉϯԋਏϐǶ Ԗ᠘ܭԜǴҁࣴزϐҞޑట٬ҔᚒಔϸᔈፕٰϩᚒಔԄෳᡍၗǴၸ ኳᔕࣴزޑБԄӧBIBᆶNEATٿᅿϯीΠϐϯਏ݀Ǵ٠ଞჹόӕڙ၂ Γኧǵᚒಔኧǵᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧаϷۓᗕКٯѤᅿᡂǴКၨ၂ᚒୖኧᆶڙ၂ޣ ૈΚୖኧϐीᆒྗࡋǶ
ಃΒʳ ࡑเୢᚒ
ਥᏵॊޑࣴزҞޑǴҁࣴزஒаΠୢᚒǺ ǵʳόӕڙ၂ΓኧࢂցቹៜᚒಔԄෳᡍၗܭBIBᆶNEATϯीϐϯਏ ݀ǻ ΒǵʳόӕᚒಔኧࢂցቹៜᚒಔԄෳᡍၗܭBIBᆶNEATϯीϐϯਏ ݀ǻ Οǵʳόӕᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧࢂցቹៜᚒಔԄෳᡍၗܭBIBᆶNEATϯीϐ ϯਏ݀ǻ ѤǵʳόӕۓᗕКٯࢂցቹៜᚒಔԄෳᡍၗܭNEATϯीϐϯਏ݀ǻ ϖǵʳόӕϯीࢂցቹៜୖኧीϐᆒྗࡋǻಃΟʳ Ӝຒှញ
൘ǵᚒಔ
ᚒಔࢂࡰᏱԖӅӕڈᐟޑಔ၂ᚒǴதـޑ᎙᠐ෳᡍ൩ࢂᚒಔԄ၂ᚒǴ ڙ၂ޣѸ᎙᠐ֹጇЎകǴӆӣเಔᆶЎക࣬ᜢޑ၂ᚒǶມǵֽ၂ᚒ٩ᒘ
၂ᚒϸᔈፕύޑ୷ҁଷɡֽᐱҥ܄Ǵࢂࡰӧ࣬ӕૈΚНྗޑݩΠǴ ڙ၂ޣբเӚ၂ᚒޑเჹᐒࢂ࣬ϕᐱҥޑǴҭջڙ၂ޣόӢࣁเჹಃᚒԶ ቹៜಃΒᚒޑբเǶऩڙ၂ޣӧբเࢌ၂ᚒਔڙډځд၂ᚒޑբเԶቹ ៜǴջၴϸΑֽᐱҥ܄ޑଷǴ೭ਔ൩ౢғֽ၂ᚒ٩ᒘȐlocal item dependence, LIDȑǶୖǵۓᗕόಔी
NEATϯीࢂஒటೱ่ޑόӕෳᡍǴ๏ϒόӕڙ၂ޣဂᡏՉࡼෳǴЪ ဂڙ၂ޣ֡ќѦࡼෳҽۓᗕෳᡍǴԶۓᗕෳᡍӧόӕڙ၂ޣဂᡏޑෳᡍ ׇࢂኬޑǴаᗉխׇӢનޑቹៜǴЪۓᗕ၂ᚒޑෳᡍϣکᜤࡋѸᆶటೱ ่ޑόӕෳᡍ࣬՟ȐDorans & Holland, 2000; von Davier, Holland, & Thayer, 2004ȑǶ
စǵѳᑽόֹӄ༧ी
BIBϯीࢂஒᚒύޑ၂ᚒϩԋኧঁ၂ᚒ༧ǴЪ༧໔ᆶ༧ϣޑ၂ ᚒࣣόख़ፄǴӆஒऩυঁ၂ᚒ༧ጓᇙԋᚒҁǴঁᚒҁύޑ၂ᚒ༧ёૈҽ ࣬ӕ܈ֹӄόӕǴԶӧ܌ԖޑෳᡍᚒҁύǴঁ၂ᚒ༧рޑԛኧࢂኬޑȐම ҏฑǵЦཫറǵդԽǵϺᆢǴ2006ǹKuehl, 2000ȑǶಃΒകʳ Ў
ҁࣴزЬाᚒಔԄෳᡍӧόӕϯीΠǴՉϯਏ݀ϐКၨǶӢ ԜǴҁകஒଞჹȨᚒಔᆶֽ၂ᚒ٩ᒘޑཷۺȩǵȨᚒಔϸᔈፕȩǵȨෳᡍ ϯޑཀကᆶᅿᜪȩᆶȨෳᡍϯीȩϐ࣬ᜢࣴزՉϩǶಃʳ ᚒಔᆶֽ၂ᚒ٩ᒘޑཷۺ
൘ǵᚒಔޑวᆶۓက
җܭᒧᚒ܈ࢂߚᚒޑෳᡍᚒࠠѝૈෳໆڙ၂ޣޑᏫૈΚǴᐽഓఘȐ2009ȑ ࡰрᒧᚒ܈ࢂߚᚒޑෳᡍᚒࠠࡐᜤෳໆډᏢғਜቪ߄ၲǵǵಔᙃکȨȩ ޑૈΚǴӢԜǴEbelȐ1951ȑගраნ٩ᒘޑ၂ᚒٰှ،೭ᜪޑୢᚒǴᇡࣁ ნ٩ᒘޑ၂ᚒёаෳໆډၨଯቫԛޑᏢಞԋ݀ǴԶნ٩ᒘޑ၂ᚒջಔ ᏱԖӅӕڈᐟ܈ૻ৲ٰྍޑ၂ᚒȐAllen & Sudweeks, 2001; Haladyna, 1992; Lee, 2000ȑǴٯӵǺ᎙᠐ෳᡍǵკТǵኧᏵ߄ǹWainer ᆶ KielyȐ1987ȑஒಔᏱ ԖӅӕڈᐟޑ၂ᚒᆀࣁᚒಔǶHaladynaȐ1992ȑᔠຎӭόӕሦୱޑᚒಔ࣬ᜢࣴ زࡕǴٯӵǺᇟЎෳᡍύޑ᎙᠐ှǵኧᏢෳᡍύ٩Ᏽ܌ᡉҢޑኧᏵ߄բเޑᚒ ࠠϷ٩ᏵणМკȐVenn diagramȑՉϩޑᚒࠠǵࣽᏢୢᚒှ،Ǵᇡࣁ೭ ᜪޑᚒࠠόёаԖਏෳໆډόӕᜪࠠޑଯቫԛࡘԵǴЪҔܭӚᅿෳᡍᜪࠠǴ ٯӵǺᒧᚒ܈ࡌᄬϸᔈᚒǹќѦǴHaladynaȐ1992ȑҭᇡࣁ೭ᜪޑෳᡍǴёа ᡣෳᡍวޣᕇள׳ӭԖᜢڙ၂ޣޑᏢಞၗૻǶ ന߃ǴᚒಔࢂҔٰጓᇙ֖ԖεڈᐟȐlarge stimuliȑޑෳᡍǴᒿႝတϯ܄ ෳᡍȐcomputerized adaptive testing, CATȑޑวǴԖᏢޣගраᚒಔޑ่ᄬٰ ׯ๓ႝတϯ܄ෳᡍύൂ၂ᚒ่ᄬ܌ౢғޑୢᚒȐWainer & Kiely, 1987;Wainer & Lewis, 1990ȑǶႝတϯ܄ෳᡍࢂᙖҗႝတس٩ᏵՏڙ၂ޣޑૈ ΚǴᒧڗനӝ၀ڙ၂ޣޑ၂ᚒϒаբเǴҗܭڙ၂ޣ܌բเޑ၂ᚒࡐௗ߈ځ ૈΚНྗǴӢԜǴКરෳᡍ෧Ͽεऊъޑ၂ᚒջёᆒዴӦෳໆрڙ၂ޣ ૈΚǶฅԶǴӧႝတϯ܄ෳᡍύǴൂ၂ᚒޑ่ᄬԖે๎ਏ݀Ȑcontext effectsȑǵ၂ᚒᜤࡋԛׇȐitem difficulty orderingȑϷϣѳᑽȐcontent balancingȑ ޑୢᚒౢғǴаϣѳᑽ೭ঁୢᚒٰᖐٯᇥܴǺаᆉኧෳᡍٰᇥǴෳᡍวޣ׆ ఈуǵ෧ǵ४ǵନ೭ѤᅿၮᆉБԄޑ၂ᚒӧҽෳᡍӚ՞25ʘǴՠႝတϯ܄ෳ ᡍӧՉᒧᚒਔǴԖёૈᒧډၨӭуݤၮᆉޑ၂ᚒǴԶؒԖᒧډନݤၮᆉޑ၂ ᚒǴӵԜჹܭዕግуݤၮᆉޑڙ၂ޣԶقၨ՞ᓬ༈Ǵՠჹܭନݤၮᆉၨዕግޑڙ ၂ޣࠅࢂόϦѳޑǶ၂ᚒᜤࡋԛׇ೭ঁୢᚒࢂࡰǴӧෳᡍ่ᄬޑ၂ᚒᔈҗᙁ ൂډ֚ᜤ௨ׇǴԶႝတϯ܄ෳᡍࠅၴϸΑ೭ঁೕ߾ǹҗܭঁᚒಔϣޑ၂ᚒ ёаҗᙁൂډ֚ᜤ௨ׇǴӧҽෳᡍύᚒಔᆶᚒಔ໔Ԗ၂ᚒᜤࡋԛׇ೭ঁ ୢᚒౢғǴࡺႝတϯ܄ෳᡍऩ௦ҔᚒಔԄෳᡍ߾ёа٬ځ၂ᚒᜤࡋԛׇਏ݀फ़ եǶ ќѦǴෳᡍวಔᙃӧ໒วϷࡷᒧ၂ᚒ೭Бय़࣬ӭޑਔ໔аϷߎᒲǴ ࣗԿКෳᡍጓᇙޑၸำ܌ޑၗྍᗋाӭǶҗܭڙ၂ޣӧௗڙᚒಔԄෳᡍਔε ϩޑਔ໔ӧೀ೭٤ڈᐟǴऩঁڈᐟΠѝጓᇙঁ၂ᚒࢂࡐੁޑǴЪᚒ ಔԄෳᡍёаᡣෳᡍวޣᕇள׳ӭԖᜢڙ၂ޣޑᏢಞၗૻǴӢԜǴӭኧޑڈᐟ Քᒿಔ၂ᚒǶԜѦǴᚒಔԄෳᡍόૈԖਏෳໆډڙ၂ޣޑଯቫԛࡘԵǴᡣ ෳᡍวޣᕇள׳ӭԖᜢڙ၂ޣޑᏢಞၗૻǴᗋёаׯ๓ႝတϯ܄ෳᡍύൂ ၂ᚒ่ᄬ܌ౢғޑୢᚒǴҗԜёـǴᚒಔޑ٬Ҕࢂຫٰຫख़ाΑȐLee, Brennan, & Frisbie, 2000ȑǶ
ᒿᚒಔෳᡍ่ᄬޑวǴόӕޑᏢޣΨ๏ϒᚒಔόӕޑӜᆀǴٯӵǺEbel Ȑ1951ȑ܌ගрޑှញ܄၂ᚒȐinterpretive exercisesȑǵCuretonȐ1965ȑ܌ගр ޑຬભ၂ᚒȐsuperitemsȑǵWainerᆶKielyȐ1987ȑ܌ගрޑᚒಔȐtestletsȑǵ
HaladynaȐ1992ȑ܌ගрޑ၂ᚒȐitem clustersȑǵYenȐ1993ȑ܌ගрޑࢤပ ȐpassagesȑǵWilsonᆶAdamsȐ1995ȑ܌ගрޑ၂ᚒ״Ȑitem bundlesȑǶਥᏵ ፏӭࣴزᡉҢǴҞനቶڙᏢޣ܌ௗڙᆶ٬ҔޑӜຒࣁȨᚒಔȐtestletsȑȩǶ ନΑӜᆀԖ܌όӕϐѦǴᚒಔޑۓကΨӢӚᏢޣޑᢀᗺόኬԶԖ܌όӕǶ Wainer ᆶ KielyȐ1987ȑ܌ගрޑᚒಔཷۺࢂࣁΑှ،ႝတϯ܄ෳᡍޑᒧᚒୢ ᚒǴஒȨᚒಔȩۓကࣁಔᆶൂϣሦୱԖᜢޑ၂ᚒǴ٠ஒԜຎࣁঁൂՏǴ ځх֖ڰۓኧໆޑႣۓၡ৩Ȑpredetermined pathsȑǴڙ၂ޣѸ٩ൻԜႣۓၡ৩ ٰՉෳᡍǶٯӵǺ᎙᠐ှෳᡍǵಔਥᏵკ߄ՉբเޑኧᏢ၂ᚒǶෳᡍว ޣਥᏵෳᡍೕஒಔ၂ᚒጓᇙԋঁᚒಔǴҗܭᚒಔϣޑ၂ᚒڀԖ࣬ӕޑᚒ ༸Ǵࡺڙ၂ޣѸբเᚒಔϣޑ܌Ԗ၂ᚒǴനࡕਥᏵڙ၂ޣբเࢌᚒಔޑ่݀ӆ ،ۓΠঁाࡼෳޑᚒಔǶWainer ᆶ LewisȐ1990ȑගрঁ׳දၹޑۓ ကǴஒᚒಔຎࣁঁλෳᡍǴλډىᡣෳᡍวޣளаᏹǴࠅΞεډىа఼ ᇂ၀ᚒಔҁيޑϣǶWainerǵSireci ᆶ ThissenȐ1991ȑஒᚒಔۓကࣁঁёඹ жෳᡍޑൂՏǴࢂಔ࣬ϕԖᜢᖄޑ၂ᚒǴΨ൩ࢂᇥǴஒᚒಔຎࣁঁКঁձ၂ ᚒᗋεޑෳᡍ่ᄬ୷ҁൂՏǶ
ມǵᚒಔޑᜪࠠ
ᚒಔޑϩᜪࢂ࣬ख़ाޑǴӢࣁόӕᜪࠠޑᚒಔёૈ٬ҔόӕޑϩБ ԄǴԶளډόӕޑ่݀ᆶ่ፕǶᚒಔޑᅿᜪё٩ෳᡍጓᇙȐtest constructionȑǵ ෳᡍჴࡼȐtest administrationȑᆶෳᡍीϩȐtest scoringȑٰϩᜪǴϟಏӵΠǶ ǵෳᡍጓᇙ೭ᜪࠠޑᚒಔӧෳᡍ่ᄬх֖ಔᆶڈᐟԖᜢޑ၂ᚒǴၰ၂ᚒ ࢂ٩ᒘܭ܌٬ҔޑڈᐟǶӃࣴز܌ගϷޑȨᚒಔȩ൳Яࢂख़ܭԜᅿᜪ ࠠޑᚒಔǶ
Βǵෳᡍჴࡼ җܭӧႝတϯ܄ෳᡍύǴൂ၂ᚒޑ่ᄬౢғે๎ਏ݀ǵ၂ᚒԛׇϷϣ ѳᑽୢᚒǶӢԜǴWainerᆶKielyȐ1987ȑࡌஒಔ၂ᚒຎࣁঁൂՏǴځ х֖ڰۓኧໆޑႣۓၡ৩Ȑpredetermined pathsȑǴڙ၂ޣѸ٩ൻԜႣۓၡ৩ٰ ՉෳᡍǶԶ೭٤၂ᚒ״Ȑbundles of itemsȑᆀࣁаၡ৩ࣁ୷ᘵޑᚒಔȐpath-based testletsȑǶ Οǵෳᡍीϩ ߈൳ԃٰǴҗܭᒧᚒෳᡍѝૈෳрڙ၂ޣ܌ᏢǴคݤෳрڙ၂ޣၨଯ ቫԛޑࡘԵૈΚǴӢԜ٬ҔჴբຑໆжඹᒧᚒෳᡍǴᡣ௲ৣૈ׳ᕕှڙ ၂ޣჹୢᚒᕕှำࡋǵୢᚒှ،ૈΚǵϩǵᘜયаϷ߄ၲԾךޑૈΚǶ
ӧჴբຑໆک࠼ᢀीϩෳᡍȐobjectively scored testȑϐ໔ޑৡձӧܭǴа۳ ࠼ᢀीϩෳᡍाຑϩޣ٬Ҕᅿຑϩྗჹڙ၂ޣޑ߄ՉຑϩǴՠคݤዴ ᇡ࣬ӕޑϩኧࢂցࢂ٬Ҕόӕຑϩྗ܈җόӕຑϩޣຑϩԶளǶ൩ჴբຑໆԶ قǴεϩޑ၂ᚒࣣҗӕՏຑϩޣ܈࣬ӕޑຑϩྗٰຑϩǴӧ೭ٿᅿݩ ΠǴёૈᏤठϩኧ໔ࢂ࣬ϕ٩ᒘޑǹऩঁձ၂ᚒ܈բࢂ٬Ҕόӕޑຑϩྗ܈ όӕຑϩޣٰຑϩǴ߾όԖ೭ᅿวғȐFerrara, Huynh, & Baghi, 1997; Yen, 1993ȑǶ
ୖǵֽ၂ᚒ٩ᒘޑۓကϷচӢ
ӧђڂෳᡍፕȐclassical test theory, CTTȑύǴځύ୷ҁଷࣁෳໆᇤ ৡᆶڙ၂ޣჴϩኧϐ໔և႟࣬ᜢǶԶӧ၂ᚒϸᔈፕύޑ୷ҁଷɡֽᐱҥ
܄Ǵࢂࡰӧ๏ۓૈΚНྗTޑݩΠǴڙ၂ޣբเӚ၂ᚒޑเჹᐒࢂ࣬ϕᐱҥ
ޑǴҭջڙ၂ޣόӢࣁเჹಃᚒԶቹៜಃΒᚒޑբเǶֽᐱҥ܄ޑଷ ё߄ҢࣁǺ
) | ( P ) | ( P ) | , ( P X1 x1 X2 x2 T X1 x1 T X2 x2 T Ȑ2-1ȑ ऩڙ၂ޣӧբเࢌ၂ᚒਔڙډځд၂ᚒޑբเԶቹៜǴջၴϸΑֽ ᐱҥ܄ޑଷǴ೭ਔ൩ౢғΑֽ၂ᚒ٩ᒘǶӧӭ௲ػǵЈෳᡍύதԖ ᚒಔԄޑ၂ᚒǴٯӵǺ᎙᠐ෳᡍǴҗܭӧӕঁᚒಔϣޑ၂ᚒࢂ٬Ҕ࣬ӕࢤЎ ӷૻ৲Ǵࡺ၂ᚒ໔ёૈ࣬ϕԖᜢᖄǴڙ၂ޣӧբเࢌ၂ᚒਔڙډځд၂ᚒޑբ เԶቹៜǶ ԜѦǴֽ၂ᚒ٩ᒘගډ၂ᚒϩኧ໔ޑచҹ࣬ᜢ܄Ȑconditional correlationȑ ёϩࣁ҅य़ޑȐpositiveȑаϷॄय़ޑȐnegativeȑٿᅿǴ҅य़ޑֽ၂ᚒ٩ᒘࢂ ࡰǴऩࢌڙ၂ޣӧࢌ၂ᚒޑ߄КႣයޑӳȐ܈߄КႣයޑόӳȑǴٗሶд\ Ӵӧځд၂ᚒΨԖёૈ߄ޑКႣයޑӳȐ܈߄КႣයޑόӳȑǹԶॄय़ޑ ֽ၂ᚒ٩ᒘࢂࡰǴࢌڙ၂ޣӧࢌ၂ᚒޑ߄ؼӳǴՠд\Ӵӧځд၂ᚒޑ߄ ԖёૈߚதৡǶ
YenȐ1993ȑᇡࣁֽ၂ᚒ٩ᒘёૈࢂҗѦӧڐշ܈υᘋȐexternal assistance or interferenceȑǵเᚒೲࡋȐspeedenessȑǵੲമȐfatigueȑǵግಞȐpracticeȑǵ ၂ᚒ܈ϸᔈԄȐitem or response formatȑǵࢤပ٩ᒘȐpassage dependenceȑǵ ၂ᚒՍȐitem chainingȑǵჹӃޑเਢှញȐexplanation of previous answerȑǵ ຑϩೕ߾܈ຑϩޣȐscoring rubrics or ratersȑᆶޕǵϣаϷૈΚȐcontent, knowledge, and abilitiesȑ೭٤Ӣન܌ԋǶаΠଞჹ೭٤Ӣન၁ಒᇥܴǺ ǵѦӧڐշ܈υᘋ
ჹܭ٤၂ᚒǴऩڙ၂ޣவԴৣ܈ӕᏆ໔ளډԖਏޑڐշǴ߾ڙ၂ޣӧբเ ೭٤၂ᚒਔஒ߄ؼӳǴԶౢғֽ၂ᚒ٩ᒘǶ࣬ϸޑǴऩڙ၂ޣڙډѦӧυ ᘋ٬ෳᡍϩኧफ़եǴٯӵǺ௲࠻ઇᚯǵόؼǵவԴৣ܈ӕᏆ໔ளډόᆒዴ ޑߞ৲Ƕ
Βǵเᚒೲࡋ ऩڙ၂ޣคݤӧೕۓਔ໔ϣֹԋҽෳᡍǴЪ҂բเޑ၂ᚒ೯தวғӧෳᡍ ҃ᆄǴ೭ᅿࢂ҅य़ޑȐpositivelyȑֽ၂ᚒ٩ᒘǶӵ݀ӧՉෳᡍਔǴਔ໔ ޑӼ௨ࢂঁख़ाޑӢનǴ߾ॄय़ޑȐnegativeȑֽ၂ᚒ٩ᒘΨԖёૈวғǹ ऩᏢғᒧਔ໔ѐբเҽෳᡍࢌҽޑ၂ᚒǴ߾ڙ၂ޣӧ೭ҽளډၨଯ ޑϩኧǴԶӧځдϩޑளϩၨեǶ Οǵੲമ ӧଯाޑෳᡍȐdemanding testȑύǴࢤပȐpassageȑрӧҽෳᡍޑՏ ڙډڙ၂ޣੲമӢનԶቹៜځ၂ᚒᜤࡋǴٯӵǺࢤပрӧෳᡍъࢤਔǴ ೭٤၂ᚒჹܭڙ၂ޣԶقࢂၨᙁൂޑǴՠऩрӧෳᡍࡕъࢤǴڙ၂ޣёૈӢ ࣁགډੲമԶቹៜځբเǶԶӧࢤပύޑ၂ᚒǴӢӅ٦ӕঁڈᐟЪӅӕڙ ډڙ၂ޣੲമޑӢનቹៜԶౢғ҅य़ޑֽ၂ᚒ٩ᒘǶ Ѥǵግಞ ऩڙ၂ޣӢࣁख़ፄግಞ܈၂ᚒᚼӀޑӢનԶׯ๓ӧ၂ᚒޑ߄Ǵ߾ౢғ ֽ၂ᚒ٩ᒘǶ ϖǵ၂ᚒ܈ϸᔈԄ ၂ᚒёа٬ҔόӕޑԄٰෳໆ࣬ӕޑϣǶԶ၂ᚒޑԄࢂ࣬ӭኬϯ ޑǴх֖ᒧᚒ܈ࡌᄬϸᔈᚒǶࡌᄬϸᔈᚒࢂ٩Ᏽځߏࡋ܈ᜪࠠԶԖ܌ᡂϯǴٯ ӵǺڙ၂ޣёаᙖҗቪࡺ٣ǵฝკ܈ࡌҥኳԄբрϸᔈǴ೭٤ᡂϯࣣౢғֽ ၂ᚒ٩ᒘǶ Ϥǵࢤပ٩ᒘ ऩࢌ٤၂ᚒឦܭ࣬ӕޑࢤပǴ߾ౢғֽ၂ᚒ٩ᒘǶ೭ᅿֽ၂ᚒ٩ᒘࢂ җڙ၂ޣჹܭࢤပޑङඳޕ܌ౢғǴаᇟЎࣽޑ᎙᠐ෳᡍԶقǴෳᡍύх֖ ጇᆶཥࠠࢬགԖᜢޑЎകǴऩڙ၂ޣ A ჹܭཥࠠࢬགޑ࣬ᜢޕԖ܌ੋᘪǴԶڙ
၂ޣ B ჹܭ೭Бय़ޑ࣬ᜢޕࣗϿǴٗሶڙ၂ޣ A ӧբเ೭ጇЎകޑ၂ᚒਔǴ Ԗёૈ߄ၨӳǴϸϐǴڙ၂ޣ B ൩Ԗёૈ߄ό٫Ƕ Ύǵ၂ᚒՍ ӵ݀ೱՍޑ၂ᚒࢂҗܰԶᜤ܌ಔԋޑǴ߾ڙ၂ޣӢࣁเჹಃᚒԶቚу ಃΒᚒޑเჹޑᐒǶ ΖǵჹӃޑเਢှញ ӧኧᏢჴբຑໆёаวԖКၨਸޑ၂ᚒՍǹࢌ၂ᚒाڙ၂ޣբเǴ ᒿࡕޑ၂ᚒ߾ाڙ၂ޣჹӃޑเਢှញǴٯӵǺࢌڙ၂ޣӧբเ၂ᚒ 1 ਔ ᒧ A ೭ঁเਢǴௗΠٰޑ၂ᚒाдଞჹಃᚒ܌ᒧޑเਢՉှញǴᒧ ೭ঁᒧޑҗ܈ޣӈрှᚒၸำǶ೭ঁှញၸำёаගٮᆶڙ၂ޣ߄Ԗᜢ ޑᚐѦૻ৲Ǵᆶၰ၂ᚒڀԖଯࡋޑ࣬ᜢ܄Ƕ ΐǵຑϩೕ߾܈ຑϩޣ ӧჴբຑໆύޑ၂ᚒёҗόӕޑຑϩྗ܈όӕຑϩޣٰຑϩǴฅԶǴऩҗ ӕՏຑϩޣ܈࣬ӕޑຑϩೕ߾ٰຑϩǴёૈᏤठ၂ᚒ໔ޑϩኧࢂ࣬ϕ٩ ᒘޑǶ ΜǵޕǵϣаϷૈΚ ڂࠠޑԋ൩ෳᡍ܌х֖ޑ၂ᚒࢂෳໆঁጄൎޑϣሦୱǶऩѝෳໆൂϣ ሦୱǴٗሶ೭٤၂ᚒᡉҢԖֽ၂ᚒ٩ᒘǶٯӵǺ୯λΟԃભޑኧᏢཷۺෳᡍǴ ෳໆڙ၂ޣࢂց࣮ਔដ᠐ڗਔ໔Ǵ߾೭٤၂ᚒԖֽ٩ᒘޑǶ Ҟςวрኧᅿόӕຑֽ၂ᚒ٩ᒘޑБݤǴനத٬ҔޑБݤࣁ Yen Ȑ1984ȑ܌ගрޑQ3ीໆȐQ3 statisticȑǶQ3ीໆޑीᆉБԄࢂ௨ନڙ
၂ޣૈΚޑቹៜࡕीᆉٿٿ၂ᚒ໔ූৡޑ࣬ᜢǶKellerǵSwaminathan ᆶ SireciȐ2003ȑ
ջ௦ҔQ3ीໆຑᚒಔ၂ᚒࢂցԖֽ၂ᚒ٩ᒘޑ܄ǴਥᏵࣴزᡉҢόӕᚒ
ಃΒʳ ᚒಔϸᔈፕ
൘ǵᚒಔϸᔈኳԄϐว
җܭᚒಔԄෳᡍڀԖֽ၂ᚒ٩ᒘޑ܄Ǵऩ٬Ҕ၂ᚒϸᔈፕኳԄϩၗ ǴӢࣁ၂ᚒϸᔈፕޑֽᐱҥଷԶ۹ౣᚒಔ၂ᚒϣޑ࣬ᜢǴ߾ଯڙ၂ ޣૈΚୖኧЪ၂ᚒୖኧౢғୃޑȐWainer, 1995; Wainer & Lukhele, 1997; Wainer, Sireci, & Thissen, 1991; Wainer & Thissen, 1996; Wainer & Wang, 2000; Yen, 1993ȑǶќѦǴҭԖᏢޣගрஒঁᚒಔຎࣁঁӭᗺीϩ၂ᚒǴаӭᗺीϩޑ БԄٰीᆉ၀ᚒಔޑளϩǴ٠аӭᗺीϩኳԄٰϩᚒಔԄෳᡍၗǴٯӵǺ ঁᚒಔϣԖ5ᚒΒϡीϩޑᒧᚒǴเჹ1ᚒள1ϩǴ߾ڙ၂ޣӧբเ၀ᚒಔ܌ள ޑϩኧനեࣁ0ϩǴനଯள5ϩǹԜБݤҔܭBockȐ1972ȑ܌ගрޑӜကϸᔈኳ ԄȐnominal response model, NRMȑǵMastersȐ1982ȑගрޑҽ๏ϩኳԄȐpartial credit model, PCMȑǵSamejimaȐ1969ȑගрޑભϸᔈኳԄȐgrade-response model, GRMȑ܈MurakiȐ1992ȑගрޑϯҽ๏ϩኳԄȐGeneralized Partial Credit Model, GPCMȑǶWainerȐ1995ȑᇡࣁҽෳᡍх֖ၨଯКٯޑᐱҥ၂ᚒЪᚒಔ ਏ݀ࣁࡋਔǴΨё٬ҔӭᗺीϩኳԄٰϩᚒಔԄෳᡍၗǶՠࢂǴऩஒᚒ ಔຎࣁঁӭᗺीϩ၂ᚒǴ߾഼Ѩࢌ٤ૻ৲ȐWang & Wilson, 2005ȑǴᖐٯٰ ᇥǴঁᚒಔϣԖ5ᚒΒϡीϩޑᒧᚒǴڙ၂ޣAเჹಃ1ǵ2ǵ5ᚒǴڙ၂ޣB เჹಃ2ǵ3ǵ4ᚒǴᗨฅٿՏڙ၂ޣӧ၀ᚒಔޑளϩࣣࣁ3ϩǴՠჴሞдॺӧӚ ᚒޑ߄ࠅόᅰ࣬ӕǶ
ӢԜǴBradlowǵWainerᆶWangȐ1999ȑගрᚒಔϸᔈፕϐኳԄǴ၂კှ ،ၸѐа၂ᚒϸᔈፕϩᚒಔԄෳᡍ܌ԋޑୢᚒǶBradlowΓȐ1999ȑஒ BirnbaumȐ1968ȑ܌ගрޑΒୖኧኳԄȐtwo-parameter logistic model, 2PLMȑу Εঁᒿᐒਏ݀Ȑ܈ᆀᚒಔਏ݀ȑۯ՜ԋΒୖኧᚒಔኳԄȐtwo-parameter testlet
model, 2PTMȑǴЪଷԜᚒಔਏ݀ޑᡂ౦ኧࣁதኧǴջঁᚒಔڀԖ࣬ӕޑᚒ ಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ำࡋȐ 2 2 ) ( VJ Vrd j ȑǴՠӧჴၗύᡉҢঁᚒಔڀԖόӕޑᚒಔਏ ݀ᡂ౦ำࡋǴࡺWainerǵBradlowᆶDuȐ2000ȑஒΒୖኧᚒಔኳԄуΕෳࡋୖ ኧۯ՜ԋΟୖኧᚒಔኳԄȐthree-parameter testlet model, 3PTMȑǴЪଷᚒಔਏ݀ ᡂ౦ኧᒿᚒಔԶᡂǶΟୖኧᚒಔኳԄޑीᆉБԄӵϦԄȐ2-2ȑǺ ] ) ( [ exp 1 ] ) ( [ exp ) 1 ( ) | 1 ( P ) ( ) ( j id j i j j id j i j j j i j b a b a c c x J T J T T Ȑ2-2ȑ ) 1 , 0 ( N ~ i T Ȑ2-3ȑ ) , 0 ( N ~ 2 ) ( ) (j rd j id V J Ȑ2-4ȑ ځύǴP(xj 1|Ti)ж߄ಃi Տڙ၂ޣӧբเᚒಔ၂ᚒಃ j ᚒள 1 ϩޑᐒǹTiж߄ ಃ i Տ ڙ ၂ ޣ ૈ Κ ୖ ኧ ǹa ǵj b ǵj c ϩ ձ ж ߄ ಃ j ᚒ ၂ ᚒ ޑ ᠘ ձ ࡋ ୖ ኧj
Ȑdiscrimination parameterȑǵᜤࡋୖኧȐdifficulty parameterȑǵෳࡋୖኧȐguessing parameterȑǹJid(j)ж߄ڙ၂ޣբเᚒಔd(j)ਔޑᚒಔਏ݀Ƕ 2 ) (j rd V ߄Ңᚒಔd(j)ޑᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ำࡋǴ 2 ) (j rd V ຫε߄Ңᚒಔϣ၂ᚒޑֽ ၂ᚒ٩ᒘຫᝄख़Ƕcj 0Ъ 2 2 ) ( VJ Vrd j Ȑঁᚒಔޑᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧࣣ࣬ȑ ਔǴϦԄȐ2-2ȑ߾ᕭ෧ԋ Bradlow ΓȐ1999ȑ܌ගрޑΒୖኧᚒಔኳԄǶcj 0 Ъaj 1ਔǴϦԄȐ2-2ȑ߾ᕭ෧ԋ Wang ᆶ WilsonȐ2005ȑ܌ගрޑ Rasch ᚒಔ ኳԄȐRasch testlet modelȑǺ
) exp( 1 ) exp( 1) ( P ) ( ) ( j id j i j id j i ij b b y J T J T Ȑ2-5ȑ Jid(j) 0ȐؒԖᚒಔਏ݀ȑǴ߄Ң၂ᚒ໔ࢂ࣬ϕᐱҥޑǴϦԄȐ2-5ȑ߾ᕭ
෧ࣁ RaschȐ1960ȑ܌ගрޑൂୖኧኳԄȐone-parameter logistic model, 1PLMȑǶ ॊޑኳԄҔܭΒϡीϩ၂ᚒǴКၨᚒಔኳԄᆶӭᗺीϩኳԄǴ ᚒಔኳԄԖаΠޑᓬᗺǺ ǵऩஒᚒಔຎࣁঁӭᗺीϩ၂ᚒՉϩǴ഼Ѩ٤ϸᔈಔࠠޑૻ৲Ǵՠ ҔᚒಔኳԄٰϩᚒಔ၂ᚒǴϩޑൂՏࣁ၂ᚒǴࡺёаߥ੮၂ᚒୖኧ ޑཷۺǹ Βǵ၂ᚒीϩޑྗؒԖׯᡂǴเჹीࣁ1Ǵเᒱीࣁ0ǹ Οǵ၂ᚒୖኧȐ᠘ձࡋୖኧǵᜤࡋୖኧǵෳࡋୖኧȑޑཷۺϝฅҔǶ ᗨฅॊޑᚒಔኳԄԖ೭٤ᓬᗺǴՠज़ܭΒϡीϩ၂ᚒǶԶقǴᚒಔ ёૈх֖Βϡीϩ၂ᚒϷӭᗺीϩ၂ᚒǶٯӵǺኧᏢࣽෳᡍ܈Ծฅࣽෳᡍޑᚒಔ х֖ࡌᄬϸᔈᚒǴ٠аӭᗺीϩ߄ҢǶԜѦǴլԄໆ߄ȐLikert-type scaleȑ Ϸຑۓໆ߄Ȑrating scaleȑ၂ᚒࣣࢂӭᗺीϩ၂ᚒǴӢԜǴวрӝӭᗺीϩ ၂ᚒޑᚒಔኳԄǶ WangǵBradlowᆶWainerȐ2002ȑӧભϸᔈኳԄύуΕᒿᐒਏ݀Զԋࣁ ભϸᔈᚒಔኳԄȐgraded-response testlet model, GRTMȑǶӧीᆉڙ၂ޣޑ҅ϸ ᔈᐒਔǴϩࣁٿঁᡯǴ२ӃीᆉᏹբቻԔጕȐoperating characteristic curvesȑǺ ] ] ) ( [ exp 1 ) ( [ exp ) ( P ) ( ) ( i d ij i i d ij i * ij a a J E T J E T T Ǵ j 0,1,2,....,mi Ȑ2-6ȑ ځύǴP*(T) ij ж߄ૈΚॶࣁT ޑڙ၂ޣբเᚒಔ၂ᚒಃ i ᚒள j ϩаޑϸᔈᐒ ǹTж߄ڙ၂ޣૈΚୖኧǹa ж߄ಃi ᚒ၂ᚒޑ᠘ձࡋୖኧǹi E ж߄ಃi ᚒ၂ᚒij ಃ j ঁޑ⸣ॶୖኧȐthreshold parameterȑǹJd(i)ж߄ڙ၂ޣբเᚒಔd(i)ਔޑᚒಔ ਏ݀ǹЪP*( ) 1 0 T i کP ( ) 0 * ) 1 (mi T i Ƕ
ӆᙖҗϦԄȐ2-6ȑीᆉᜪձϸᔈԔጕȐcategory response curveȑǺ ) ( P ) ( P ) ( P * ) 1 ( * T T T ij i j ij Ȑ2-7ȑ ځύǴPij(T)ж߄ૈΚॶࣁT ޑڙ၂ޣբเᚒಔ၂ᚒಃi ᚒள j ϩޑϸᔈᐒǶ WangǵChengᆶWilsonȐ2005ȑаϷWangᆶWilsonȐ2005ȑࡰрǴϩ๏ϩ ᚒಔኳԄȐpartial credit testlet model, PCTMȑࢂӧϩ๏ϩኳԄуΕᒿᐒਏ݀Զ ளǴځीᆉБԄӵΠǺ 1 0 ) ( 0 ) ( ] ) ( [ exp ] ) ( [ exp ) ( P
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i m r r j i d ij x j i d ij ix J G T J G T T Ǵځύ¦
{ 0 0 ) ( ) 0 ( j i d ij J G T Ȑ2-8ȑ ځύǴPix(T)ж߄ૈΚॶࣁT ޑڙ၂ޣբเᚒಔ၂ᚒಃ i ᚒள x ϩޑᐒǹ x ж߄ ڙ၂ޣޑӣเ܌ឦᜪձǴவ0,1,2,...,miǹm ж߄ಃ i ᚒ܌Ԗޑᜪձኧǹi Tж߄ ڙ၂ޣޑૈΚॶǹGij ж߄ಃ i ᚒ၂ᚒಃ j ঁޑ၂ᚒᡯᜤࡋୖኧȐitem step difficultyȑǹJd(i)ж߄ڙ၂ޣբเᚒಔd(i)ਔޑᚒಔਏ݀ǶມǵୖኧीБݤ
җܭҁࣴزࢂ௦Ҕ SCORIGHT 3.0 ೬ᡏȐWang, Bradlow, & Wainer, 2005ȑჹ ኳᔕၗՉୖኧीǴԶԜ೬ᡏޑୖኧीБݤࢂ௦ҔଭёϻᆾӦьᛥ ȐMarkov chain Monte Carlo, MCMCȑीБݤǶӢԜǴଞჹ MCMC ीำׇ၁ ॊӵΠǶ
MCMCࢂᅿنМीݤޑۯ՜ǴԜᄽᆉݤޑᓬᗺࢂԛૈೀӭঁᡂኧޑ
ीǶԜБݤѸၸӭԛख़ፄܜڗኬҁǴࡌᄬрߏՍޑଭёϻȐMarkov chainȑǴԶᕇளᛙۓϩթȐstationary distributionȑǴၸଭёϻύޑᒿᐒ
ᡂኧёΑှᡂኧޑ܄ǶࡌᄬଭёϻޑБݤεӭࢂճҔ Metropolis-Hastings ᄽ ᆉݤϷӓМܜኬݤȐGibbs samplerȑٰՉኳԄޑୖኧܜኬϷीǶԶᚒಔϸᔈ ፕࢂࡌᄬӧֹޑ໘ቫنМࢎᄬύǴSCORIGHT 3.0 ೬ᡏջ௦ҔӓМܜኬݤ ՉኳԄޑୖኧܜኬϷीǶ ߈ԃٰǴຫٰຫӭᏢޣ٬Ҕ MCMC ٰፕࡕᡍϩթǴЬाޑচӢࢂѿᕇ ளࡕᡍኬҁϩթǴ߾ࡐܰջёֹԋፕǶЪ MCMC όሡा٩ᒘᅌ߈ፕ Ȑasymptotic theoryȑǴΨ൩ࢂεኬҁፕȐlarge sample theoryȑǴջёᕇளྗᇤǹ ࣬ჹܭനεཷ՟ݤȐmaximum likelihood methodȑǴMCMC ϢჹԖज़ኬҁՉ ፕǶќѦǴҗܭ໒วр୷ܭنМۓբኳࠠୖኧीޑխ೬ᡏٮࣴزޣБߡ ٬ҔǴٯӵǺWinBUGSǴӢԜวр SCORIGHT 3.0 ೭ঁխ೬ᡏǴ٬ள IRT ኳԄΨૈ٬Ҕ MCMC ՉፕǶ WainerǵBradlow ᆶ WangȐ2007ȑаΒୖኧᚒಔኳԄٰᔠຎ MCMC ޑၮᆉ ၸำǶۓ/ ࣁኳԄύޑ܌ԖୖኧǴх֖၂ᚒ᠘ձࡋୖኧ(a1,...,aJ)ǵ၂ᚒᜤࡋ ୖኧ(b1,...,bJ)ǵڙ၂ޣૈΚୖኧ(T1,...,TI)ǵᚒಔୖኧJ1d(1),...,JId(J)ǴаϷቹ ៜୖኧϩթޑ( , 2) a a V P ǵ( , 2) b b V P ᆶ 2 J V Ǵځύ J ߄Ң၂ᚒኧǴ I ߄Ңڙ၂ΓኧǶа ΠࣁଭёϻᆾӦьᄽᆉݤϐܜኬำׇǶ ᡯ 1. ᒧঁ߃ۈӛໆ/ /(t 0) Ǵt ߄ҢॏжኧǴۓt =0ǶਥᏵ Wainer Γ ޑᡍࡰр MULTILOG ک BILOG ೬ᡏޑी่݀ёаගٮ๏ MCMC ߃ۈॶǴӢࣁ٬Ҕ೭٤೬ᡏޑी่݀ MCMC ޑ߃ۈॶǴёау זԏᔙޑೲࡋǶ ᡯ 2. ᒧࢌୖኧޑηO1Ǵ٠ᙖҗచҹϩթ ( | , ) ) ( 1 1 t Y p O /O ύܜڗ׳ཥॶ ) 1 ( 1 t O Ƕ ځύ () 1 t O / ж߄/ ೭ঁӛໆх֖O1೭٤ୖኧǴीᆉO1ಃ t ԛॏжޑॶǹԶY ߄ Ң܌ᢀჸޑෳᡍၗǶ
ᡯ 3. ᒧࢌୖኧޑηO2Ǵ٠ᙖҗచҹϩթ ( | , , ) ) 1 ( 1 ) ( , 2 1 2 /t t Y p O O O O ύܜڗ׳ཥ ॶ ( 1) 2 t O Ƕځύ () , 2 1 t O O / ಔୖኧх֖O1کO2ǴीᆉO2ಃ t ԛॏжޑॶǹԶ ) 1 ( 1 t O ࢂҗᡯ 2 ׳ཥO1܌ளډޑॶǶ ᡯ 4. வచҹϩթ ( | , , ( 1)) 2 ) 1 ( 1 , 2 1 / t t Y p O O O O ܜڗኬҁ ( 11), 2 /t O O Ǵۓt t1Ƕ ᡯ 5. ऩt dMȐࡰۓޑॏжኧȑǴ߾ӣډᡯ 2 ख़ፄՉ೭٤ำׇǴޔډt !M ωଶЗǶ ќѦǴाଞჹ MCMC ӧॏжኧ M ޑᒧՉǴM ёϩࣁ M'کM-M' ٿঁҽǶM'ӧ MCMC ύᆀࣁȨႣᐨȐburn-inȑਔයȩǴջ໒ۈॏжޔډԏᔙᕇ ளᛙۓϩթࣁЗǴࣁΑᕇளԖਏޑፕǴӢԜाஒय़҂ԏᔙޑॏжၗմନǴ ߥ੮M-M'ٰϩǴҗܭM-M'໔ޑၗڀԖଯࡋ࣬ᜢǴӢԜǴ٬ҔޣёԾु ໔ຯ kǴѝܜڗр໔႖ k ޑၗٰևǴٯӵǺॏж M=4000 ԛǴմନय़ M'=2000 ޑॏжၗǴഭΠM-M'=2000Ȑ2001~4000ȑޑॏжၗǴҗܭഭΠޑၗڀԖ ଯࡋ࣬ᜢǴ٬ҔޣԾु໔ຯ 10Ǵࡺѝᒵಃ 2001ǵ2011ǵ2021ǵ……ǵ3081ǵ 3091 ԛޑॏжၗǶᔠຎ M'ԛॏжࢂցԏ⻃ǴЬाࢂ٬Ҕ F ᔠۓٰຑࢂցၲ ډԏᔙǴځύࣴزޣѸᏹ Q ঁଭёϻȐ೯தۓ Q ࣁ 3 Կ 5 ঁȑǴωૈ ٬Ҕ F ᔠۓٰຑࢂցၲډԏᔙǹၲډԏᔙࡕǴܜڗ Q ×(M-M')ၗՉࡕᡍ ፕǶ
ୖǵᚒಔϸᔈፕϐ࣬ᜢࣴز
BradlowǵWainerᆶWangȐ1999ȑаኳᔕࣴزޑБԄᚒಔ၂ᚒ௦Ҕ Bilog-MG೬ᡏȐZimowski, Muraki, Mislevy & Bock, 2003ȑǵGibbsܜኬݤȐؒԖԵՉୖኧीϐᆒྗࡋǶӧڰۓෳᡍߏࡋࣁ60ᚒȐх֖30ᚒᐱҥ၂ᚒϷ30ᚒᚒಔ ၂ᚒȑޑݩΠǴᏹޑᡂԖᚒಔኧϷᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧǴځύᚒಔኧϩࣁ3܈6 ঁᚒಔǴᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧϩࣁ0.5ǵ1ǵ2ΟᅿǶ่݀ᡉҢǴ೭ΟᅿीБݤޑ ၂ᚒୖኧϷڙ၂ޣૈΚୖኧीᇤৡࣣᒿᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧᡂεԶቚуǴЪ௦ ҔGibbsJܜኬݤՉୖኧीനࣁᆒྗǶ Wang ᆶ WilsonȐ2005ȑаኳᔕၗՉࣴزǴ٬ҔᚒಔϸᔈኳԄᏹόӕ ၂ᚒᜪࠠǵᚒಔኧǵڙ၂Γኧǵᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧѤᅿᡂჹڙ၂ޣૈΚୖኧǵᚒ ಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧǵ၂ᚒᜤࡋୖኧीޑቹៜǶځύ၂ᚒᜪࠠϩࣁΒϡीϩ၂ᚒȐ40 ᚒȑǵӭϡीϩ၂ᚒȐ24 ᚒȑаϷషӝ၂ᚒȐх֖ 20 ᚒΒϡीϩ၂ᚒᆶ 12 ᚒӭ ϡीϩ၂ᚒȑΟᅿǴᚒಔኧϩձᏹ 4 ܈ 8 ঁᚒಔǴڙ၂Γኧϩࣁ 200 ܈ 500 ΓǴ Զᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧϩࣁ 0.25ǵ0.5ǵ0.75ǵ1 ѤᅿǶ่݀ᡉҢǴ၂ᚒᜤࡋୖኧ аϷᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧϐीᇤৡࣣᒿΓኧቚуԶ෧λǹόӕᚒಔኧჹܭ၂ᚒᜤ ࡋୖኧीᇤৡ٠คठޑ่݀ǴԶڙ၂ޣૈΚୖኧीᇤৡᒿᚒಔኧቚу Զ෧λǶ
LiǵBolt ᆶ FuȐ2005ȑ໒วҔܭᚒಔኳԄޑෳᡍቻԔጕȐtest characteristic curve, TCCȑϯБݤǴԶаኳᔕၗٰՉࣴزǴ٬Ҕ NEAT ϯी ܭ IRT ኳԄکᚒಔኳԄӧᚒಔၗϐϯਏ݀ǹᏹޑᡂԖۓᗕᚒಔኧϷ ᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧٿᅿǴځύۓᗕᚒಔኧϩࣁ 2 ܈ 4 ঁᚒಔǴᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧϩࣁ 0ǵ0.5ǵ1 ΟᅿǹќѦǴаჴቻၗࣁٯٰᇥܴࣴزޣ܌ගрϐҔܭᚒಔ ኳԄޑϯБݤǶਥᏵኳᔕၗ่݀ᡉҢǴаᚒಔኳԄϩޑϯ߯ኧीၨࣁ ᆒྗǶჴቻၗ่݀ᡉҢǴঁᚒಔޑᚒಔਏ݀ѳ֡ኧࣣόࣁ႟ǴЪٿဂڙ၂ޣ ޑᚒಔਏ݀ѳ֡ኧԖёૈόӕǴҗԜ่݀ᡍΑᚒಔၗӧՉϯਔѸሡ௦Ҕ ӝᚒಔኳԄޑϯБݤǶ ࡘȐ2008ȑаኳᔕࣴزᚒಔෳᡍӧόӕीϩኳԄȐ၂ᚒीϩ IRT ኳ
Ԅǵᚒಔीϩ IRT ኳԄǵTRT ीϩኳԄȑჹڙ၂ޣૈΚୖኧीϐቹៜǹќѦǴ аჴቻࣴزɡ2006 ԃ PISA ᎙᠐ှෳᡍǴୀෳӚᚒಔֽ၂ᚒ٩ᒘޑำࡋǴ٠ КၨόӕीϩኳԄჹڙ၂ޣૈΚୖኧीޑৡ౦ǶӧኳᔕࣴزБय़Ǵᏹό ӕ၂ᚒᜪࠠǵᚒಔኧǵᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧΟᅿǹځύ၂ᚒᜪࠠϩࣁΒϡीϩ၂ ᚒȐх֖ 50 ᚒᐱҥ၂ᚒǵ24 ᚒᚒಔ၂ᚒȑǵӭϡीϩ၂ᚒȐх֖ 50 ᚒᐱҥ၂ᚒǵ 24ᚒᚒಔ၂ᚒȑٿᜪǴᚒಔኧϩձᏹ 4 ܈ 8 ঁᚒಔǴԶᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧϩࣁ 0ǵ 0.25ǵ0.5ǵ0.75ǵ1ǵ1.5 ϤᅿǶኳᔕၗ่݀ᡉҢǴа TRT ीϩኳԄჹڙ၂ ޣૈΚीޑᆒዴ܄ന٫ǹคፕӧՖᅿᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ำࡋΠǴᒿᚒಔኧໆቚ уǴΟᅿीϩኳԄځڙ၂ޣૈΚीޑᆒዴ܄ᒿϐගଯǹᒿᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ำ ࡋቚуǴΟᅿीϩኳԄځڙ၂ޣૈΚीޑᆒዴ܄ᒿϐफ़եǶჴቻၗ่݀ᡉ ҢǴPISA ᎙᠐ຑໆύޑӚঁᚒಔڀԖόำࡋޑֽ၂ᚒ٩ᒘǴќѦǴ࣬ၨܭ ᚒಔीϩޑӭᗺ IRT ኳԄǴൂ၂ᚒीϩ IRT ኳԄᆶ TRT ीϩኳԄӧૈΚी ޑ࣬ᜢၨଯǴЪځ Bias ᆶ RMSE ޑৡ౦ॶҭၨࣁ࣬߈Ƕ
ಃΟʳ ෳᡍϯޑཀကᆶᅿᜪ
ԶقǴٿҽෳᡍޑϩኧόૈޔௗՉКၨǴЬाࢂӢࣁٿҽෳᡍޑϩ ኧόӧӕໆЁǴٯӵǺڙ၂ޣAӧXෳᡍޑளϩࣁ50ϩǴڙ၂ޣBӧYෳᡍޑ ளϩࣁ50ϩǴՠคݤዴᇡXෳᡍکYෳᡍޑᜤࡋࢂց࣬ӕǴԖёૈXෳᡍޑ၂ᚒࢂ җၨᜤޑ၂ᚒ܌ಔԋǴԶYෳᡍࢂҗၨᙁൂޑ၂ᚒ܌ಔԋǴࡺؒԖᒤݤޔௗКၨ ٿҽෳᡍޑϩኧǶ ෳᡍϯࢂճҔीБݤǴஒڙ၂ޣӧࢌෳᡍޑϩኧᙯඤԿќෳᡍޑϩ ኧໆЁǴаКၨٿҽෳᡍϩኧᜢ߯ޑၸำǹᙁൂٰᇥǴ൩ࢂஒόӕෳᡍϩኧܫ ܭӕঁໆЁՉКၨޑБݤǶෳᡍϯޑҞޑӧܭፓෳᡍᜤࡋϐৡ౦Զ ߚෳᡍϣϐৡ౦ǴЪ೭٤ෳᡍ܌ෳໆޑ፦܈ૈΚ࣬ӕǴᜤࡋϷϣཱུࣁ࣬՟ȐKolen & Brennan, 1995ȑǶෳᡍϩኧ໔ޑϯѸ಄ӝ࣬܄Ȑequityȑǵჹ ᆀ܄Ȑsymmetry propertyȑǵიᡏόᡂ܄Ȑgroup invariance propertyȑϷෳᡍѸ ࢂൂӛࡋȐunidimensionality of the testsȑ܄፦ωૈՉȐAngoff, 1971; Hambleton & Swaminathan, 1985; Kolen & Brennan, 2004; Lord, 1980ȑǶ
HambletonᆶSwaminathanȐ1985ȑࡰрෳᡍϯޑᅿᜪёϩࣁНѳϯ Ȑhorizontal equatingȑϷࠟޔϯȐvertical equatingȑٿᅿǴϟಏӵΠǺ ǵНѳϯ Нѳϯࢂࡰஒٿҽ܈ٿҽаෳᡍϣϷᜤࡋཱུࣁ࣬՟ޑෳᡍՉೱ ่ϯǶНѳϯࣁΑᆢෳᡍӼӄ܄ǴԶஒࢌෳᡍϩԋӭᅿόӕԄϐෳᡍᚒ ҁǴ೭٤ෳᡍᚒҁࢂҗᚒύޑ၂ᚒ܌ጓᇙԶԋޑፄҁෳᡍǴᗨฅ೭٤ෳᡍᚒҁ όӕǴՠෳᡍޑϣϷᜤࡋཱུࣁ࣬՟ǶԜѦǴऩाՉНѳϯǴ߾Ѹଷ όӕڙ၂ޣဂᡏޑૈΚϩթࢂኬޑǶ
ӭεࠠෳᡍȐlarge-scale testȑ܈ଯ॥ᓀෳᡍȐhigh stake testȑࣁΑᗉխ၂ ᚒၸࡋᚼӀǴࡺஒෳᡍጓᇙԋፄҁෳᡍǴٯӵǺᏢೌຑໆෳᡍکࣴزғΕᏢԵ၂ ȐGraduate Record Examination, GREȑԖӭᅿፄҁෳᡍǴԶ೭٤ෳᡍԖԃӭ ԛޑԵ၂ᐒǴѸၸНѳϯБݤஒόӕፄҁෳᡍޑϩኧᙯඤԿӕໆЁ ωૈՉෳᡍϩኧޑКၨǶ Βǵࠟޔϯ ࠟޔϯࢂࡰஒٿҽ܈ٿҽаޑෳᡍՉೱ่ϯǴԶ೭٤ෳᡍޑᜤࡋό ӕЪόӕԃស܈ԃભޑڙ၂ޣဂᡏૈΚϩթΨό࣬Ǵՠ܌ෳໆޑϣϷ፦ࢂ ࣬ӕޑǶεϩޑԋ൩ෳᡍࣣ٬ҔࠟޔϯБݤஒόӕෳᡍޑϩኧᙯඤԿӕໆ ЁՉෳᡍϩኧޑКၨǴٯӵǺऍ୯ޑуԀԋ൩ෳᡍȐCalifornia Achievement Tests, CATȑǵང༫୷ҁמૈෳᡍȐIowa Test of Basic SkillsȑǴջճҔࠟޔ ϯՉෳᡍϩኧ໔ϐೱ่Ƕ
ӢԜǴҁࣴزНѳϯϐԋਏǶ
ಃѤʳ ෳᡍϯी
ෳᡍϯीࢂࡰԏၗޑБݤǴाՉෳᡍϯǴѸ٩ᏵځҞޑᒧ ঁ಄ӝޑϯीǶϯीᒧޑӳᚯቹៜϯᇤৡǴࡺӧᒧϯी ਔѸߚதޑλЈᙣǶதҔޑෳᡍϯीࣁǺൂಔीȐsingle group designȑǵ ဂಔीȐequivalent group designȑǵѳᑽόֹӄ༧ीǵۓᗕόಔी ȐЦᝊ❲Ǵ1995ǹKolen & Brennan, 1995ȑǶаΠϟಏҁࣴز܌௦Ҕޑѳᑽόֹӄ ༧ीᆶۓᗕόಔीǺ ǵѳᑽόֹӄ༧ी BIBϯीࢂҗYatesȐ1936ȑගрǴԜीࢂஒᚒύޑ၂ᚒ֡ϩԋऩυ ঁ၂ᚒ༧Ǵ༧໔ᆶ༧ϣޑ၂ᚒࣣόख़ፄǴ٠ճҔ೭٤၂ᚒ༧ጓᇙԋऩυ ঁᚒҁǶӢԜǴڙ၂ޣѝሡௗڙऩυ၂ᚒ༧ޑ၂ᚒǴЪόӕڙ၂ޣёૈௗڙ ϩ࣬ӕǵֹӄ࣬ӕǵ܈ֹӄόӕޑ၂ᚒ༧ǶԜीӧคբเϸᔈਔ໔Ȑresponse timeȑޑज़ڋΠǴѸᅈىΠӈޑज़ڋԄǺ
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S t s ijs i j t z 1 , .... , 1 , O Ȑ2-10ȑ S s , t j i z x xis js t2 ijs, 1,...., 1,...., Ȑ2-11ȑ ځύǴ t Ǻ၂ᚒ༧ኧ s ǺᚒҁжဦǴs 1,....,S k Ǻঁᚒҁଛޑ၂ᚒ༧ኧr Ǻ၂ᚒ༧ӧ܌Ԗᚒҁύрޑԛኧ i Ǻᚒύঁձ༧жဦǴi 1,....,t j Ǻᚒύԋჹ༧ύಃΒঁ༧жဦǴ j 1,....,t OǺԋჹ၂ᚒ༧ӧ܌Ԗᚒҁύрޑԛኧ is x Ǻ၂ᚒ༧ᆶᚒҁޑଛಔࠠǴځύxis
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0,1`
, i 1,...,t, s 1,....,S ijs z Ǻ ԋ ჹ ၂ ᚒ ༧ ᆶ ᚒ ҁ ޑ ଛ ಔ ࠠ Ǵ ځ ύ zijs^
0,1`
, i 1,...,t , S s 1,...., ϦԄȐ2-8ȑж߄ঁᚒҁଛޑ၂ᚒ༧ኧҞǹϦԄȐ2-9ȑж߄ঁ ၂ᚒ༧ӧ܌ԖᚒҁύрޑԛኧǹϦԄȐ2-10ȑж߄ԋჹ၂ᚒ༧ӧ܌Ԗᚒҁ ύрޑԛኧǹϦԄȐ2-11ȑж߄ԋჹ၂ᚒ༧ᆶಔࠠޑठ܄ǶBIB ϯी ಄ӝϦԄȐ2-8ȑԿȐ2-11ȑޑाǴар಄ӝޑന٫ှǶ ฅԶǴӧϩ၂ᚒ༧ޑၸำѸԵໆڙ၂ޣԖىޑਔ໔ૈֹԋ܌Ԗޑ ᚒҞǴЪ၂ᚒ༧ኧΨा٣ӃዴۓǶനࡕ௦ҔᖥԄޑ௨ӈБԄஒ၂ᚒ༧ᆶᚒ ҁଛǴ٬ঁ၂ᚒ༧ޑࡼෳԛኧ࣬ȐNemhauser & Wolsey, 1999; van der Linden, Veldkamp, & Carlson, 2004ȑǶӢԜǴBIBϯीԖΠӈΟ୷ҁज़ڋǺ1. ঁᚒҁϣޑ၂ᚒ༧ኧा࣬ӕ
2. җ၂ᚒ༧ޑ่ӝǴҗॊϦԄрനλᚒҁኧ
3. ঁ၂ᚒ༧ӧ܌Ԗᚒҁύрޑԛኧा࣬ӕ
ќѦǴਥᏵNAEP 1998ԃޑמೌ܄ൔύࡰрǴ၂ᚒӧՉࡼෳਔǴε ऊሡा500ঁෳ၂ኬҁȐAllen, Donoghue, & Schoeps, 2001ȑǶ
Βǵۓᗕόಔी
NEATϯीࢂஒటೱ่ޑෳᡍ๏ϒٿಔόӕڙ၂ኬҁP1کQ1Չࡼ ෳǴځύǴP1کQ1ϩձவٿಔڙ၂҆ဂᡏPکQύᒿᐒܜڗԶளǴЪٿಔڙ၂ኬ
ҁࡼෳޑਔ໔όӕǶٿಔڙ၂ኬҁࣣќѦௗڙҽۓᗕෳᡍAǴࣁΑᗉխڙ၂ ޣڙډࡼෳׇӢનޑቹៜǴࡺۓᗕෳᡍӧٿڙ၂ኬҁޑෳᡍׇࢂኬޑǴЪ ෳᡍᜤࡋکϣѸᆶXǵYෳᡍཱུࣁ࣬՟Ǵځෳᡍߏࡋ࣬ܭঁϩෳᡍǶNEAT ϯीӵ߄2-1ȐKolen etal.,1995ǹէ҇ჱǴ1993ȑǶ ߄2-1 NEATϯी ڙ၂ޣဂᡏ Xෳᡍ Yෳᡍ Aෳᡍ P1 V V Q1 V V ຏǺVࣁڙ၂ޣѸڙෳϐෳᡍ NEATϯीࣁၨதҔǵΨၨёՉޑෳᡍϯीǴѬѝሡଷڙ၂ኬҁ ࢂᒿᐒܜڗޑǴόѸଷόӕڙ၂ኬҁԖ࣬ӕޑૈΚॶǶӧNEATϯीǴ ঁᚒҁѸࡼෳ࣬ӕޑۓᗕ၂ᚒǴӢԜǴۓᗕ၂ᚒᒧڗޑӳᚯஒቹៜೱ่ਏ ݀Ǵऩۓᗕ၂ᚒᒧ࡞Ǵ߾ёаᗉխڙډግಞǵੲമቹៜǶԜѦǴNEATϯ ीޑۓᗕ၂ᚒϣाᅰёૈ࣬՟Ъ၂ᚒᜤࡋा࣬ӕǴӢࣁۓᗕ၂ᚒࢂҔٰፓ ٿঁόӕૈΚϐဂᡏ܌ԋޑόȐPetersen, Kolen, & Hoover,1993ǹЦཫറǴ 2006ȑǶ
ಃΟകʳ ࣴزीᆶБݤ
ҁകϩࣁϤঁҽǴ२ӃϟಏࣴزࢬำǴځԛϟಏҁࣴزϐᡂीǵჴᡍ ीǵኳᔕჴᡍᡯϷຑБݤǴനࡕϟಏࣴزπڀǶಃʳ ࣴزࢬำ
ҁࣴزਥᏵᚒಔϸᔈፕύΟୖኧᚒಔኳԄࣁ୷ᘵٰϩᚒಔԄෳᡍၗ ǴటၸኳᔕࣴزޑБԄӧόӕϯෳᡍნϐϯਏ݀Ƕࣴزࢬำӵ კ3-1܌ҢǶ კ3-1 ࣴزࢬำკ Ўᇆᆶ! ኗቪࣴزൔ! ۓࣴزЬᚒ! BIBᚒҁ! ೱ่ी! ٬Ҕ SCORIGHT 3.0 ೬ᡏՉୖኧी ࣴزᡂۓ! NEATᚒҁ! ೱ่ीʳ Кၨόӕᡂϐୖ ኧीᆒྗࡋ२ӃࢂۓࣴزЬᚒǴௗՉᆶࣴزЬᚒϐ࣬ᜢЎᇆᆶǴԶ ۓࣴزნϷෳᡍᚒҁϐϯीǴ٠٩Ᏽ܌ۓϐόӕࣴزნౢғኳᔕၗ ࡕǴаSCORIGHT 3.0೬ᡏՉୖኧीǴрόӕᡂϐीᆒྗࡋ٠ኗቪࣴ ز่݀Ƕ җܭ SCORIGHT 3.0 ೬ᡏёჹෳᡍၗՉӕਔीǴӢԜǴҁࣴز௦Ҕӕ ਔीݤՉෳᡍϯǹӆޣǴڙज़ܭᚒಔϸᔈኳԄज़ڋڙ၂ޣૈΚୖኧܺவ ྗதᄊϩթޑᜢ߯ǴࡺҁࣴزᚒಔԄෳᡍ௦Ҕ BIB ϯीᆶ NEAT ϯ ीՉНѳϯϐԋਏǶ
ಃΒʳ ኳᔕჴᡍϐᡂी
൘ǵࣴزᡂۓ
ҁࣴزኳᔕᚒಔԄෳᡍၗǴ BIB ک NEAT ٿᅿϯीՉНѳϯ Πϐෳᡍϯਏ݀ǶஒҁࣴزޑӅӕᡂۓӵ߄ 3-1Ƕ ߄ 3-1 ኳᔕၗᡂۓ ࣴزᡂ ᡂۓ ϯी NEATǵBIB ڙ၂Γኧ 3570Γǵ5460Γǵ7560Γ ෳᡍߏࡋ ঁᚒҁࡼෳᚒኧࣁ 60 ᚒ Ӛᚒҁଛޑ၂ᚒ༧ኧ 3ঁ ᚒಔኧȐᚒಔߏࡋȑ 12ঁᚒಔȐ5ᚒȑǵ6ঁᚒಔȐ10ᚒȑ ᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧ 0ǵ0.25ǵ0.5ǵ1ǵmixȐషӝȑ ۓᗕᚒКٯ 1/3ǵ1/6 ኳᔕԛኧ 50 ԛǵڙ၂Γኧ
ਥᏵ NAEP 1998 ԃޑמೌ܄ൔύࡰрǴ၂ᚒӧՉࡼෳਔǴεऊሡ ा 500 ঁෳ၂ኬҁȐAllen, Donoghue, & Schoeps, 2001ȑǴӢԜǴҁࣴزΓኧ ۓаԜࣁ୷ྗǴࣁΑଛӝӚᅿϯीᚒҁኧޑόӕǴۓࣁ 3570 Γǵ5460 Γǵ 7560ΓΟᅿǶ Βǵᚒಔኧ ҁࣴزۓҽෳᡍࣁ 60 ᚒǴঁᚒҁх֖ 3 ঁ၂ᚒ༧Ƕӧڰۓෳᡍߏ ࡋޑݩΠǴϩࣁҽෳᡍԖ 12 ঁᚒಔ܈ 6 ঁᚒಔǴҭջঁᚒಔϣԖ 5 ᚒ܈ 10ᚒ၂ᚒǶ Οǵᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧ ҁࣴزటόӕ၂ᚒ٩ᒘำࡋჹڙ၂ޣૈΚୖኧीϐቹៜǴЪਥᏵၸѐ ޑࣴزᡉҢǴӧჴෳᡍύঁᚒಔޑ၂ᚒ٩ᒘำࡋёૈό࣬ӕǴӢԜǴҁࣴ زᏹᚒಔਏ݀ޑᡂ౦ኧࣁ 0ǵ0.25ǵ0.5ǵ1ǵmixȐషӝȑ೭ϖᅿǶѤᅿ ࢂࡰҽෳᡍϣঁᚒಔޑᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧࣣ࣬ӕǹќѦǴషӝᚒಔਏ݀ࢂ ࡰऩҽෳᡍԖ 12 ঁᚒಔǴ߾ಃ 1ǵ5ǵ9 ঁᚒಔޑᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧࣁ 0Ǵಃ 2ǵ 6ǵ10 ঁᚒಔޑᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧࣁ 0.25Ǵ٩ԜᜪǶ ѤǵۓᗕᚒКٯ ҁࣴزӧڰۓෳᡍߏࡋࣁ 60 ᚒޑݩΠǴόӕۓᗕᚒКٯჹୖኧी ϐቹៜǴᏹޑۓᗕᚒКٯࣁ 1/3 ܈ 1/6 ٿᅿǴҭջۓᗕᚒኧࣁ 20 ᚒ܈ 10 ᚒǶ ฅԶǴBIB ϯीϐ၂ᚒ༧ύޑ၂ᚒኧѸा࣬Ǵࡺҁࣴزଞჹ NEATϯीόӕۓᗕᚒКٯჹୖኧीϐቹៜǶ ԜѦǴӧॊӚᅿόӕᡂΠǴ֡ኳᔕౢғ50ၗǴीڙ၂ޣૈΚୖኧ ک၂ᚒୖኧ٠ीᆉӚୖኧϐਥ֡БৡȐroot mean square error, RMSEȑǴаࣴز ่݀ޑᆒዴᆶᛙۓǶ
ມǵୖኧۓ
ᜢܭҁࣴز၂ᚒୖኧϷڙ၂ޣૈΚୖኧϐۓǴϩॊӵΠǶ ǵ၂ᚒୖኧϩթۓ 1. ᠘ձࡋୖኧǺਥᏵMislevyȐ1986ȑࣴزࡰр᠘ձࡋୖኧ߈՟ܭlognormalϩթǴ ࡺҁࣴز᠘ձࡋୖኧኳԄ௦Ҕlognormal(1.13,0.6)Ǵஒጄൎࣚۓ ܭ0.5ɴ1.5Ƕ 2. ᜤࡋୖኧǺb~N(0,1)Ǵஒጄൎࣚۓܭ-3ɴ3Ƕ3. ෳࡋୖኧǺਥᏵ Swaminathan & GiffordȐ1986ȑࣴزࡌෳࡋୖኧኳԄ௦ Ҕ beta ӃᡍϩթǴࡺҁࣴزෳࡋୖኧ௦Ҕbeta(4,16)Ǵஒጄൎ ࣚۓܭ 0ɴ0.25Ƕ ΒǵૈΚୖኧϩթۓ ڙ၂ޣૈΚϩթࣁྗதᄊϩթǴT ~ N(0,1)Ǵஒጄൎࣚۓܭ-3ɴ3Ƕڙ၂ᕴ ΓኧԖ3570Γǵ5460Γǵ7560ΓΟᅿݩǶ२Ӄኳᔕ7560ΓޑૈΚୖኧǴӆவύ ܜڗ5460ঁբࣁ5460ΓޑૈΚୖኧǴ3570ΓޑૈΚୖኧҭࢂவ5460ΓޑૈΚୖኧ ύܜڗԶٰޑǶ
ಃΟʳ ෳᡍϯी
ҁࣴز܌௦Ҕෳᡍϯीࣁ BIB ᆶ NEAT ٿᅿǴଞჹ೭ٿᅿϯी၁ ॊӵΠǶ൘ǵBIB ϯी
ਥᏵҁࣴزۓঁᚒҁᕴᚒኧࣁ60ᚒǴ3ঁ၂ᚒ༧Ǵঁ၂ᚒ༧ϣԖ 20ᚒ၂ᚒǴஒBIBϯी಄ӝϐచҹӵΠȐKuehl, 2000ȑǺ t r k bu u Ȑ3-1ȑ) 1 ( ) 1 ( u u k t r O , where Orb Ȑ3-2ȑ ځύǴ b Ǻᚒҁኧǹ k Ǻঁᚒҁଛޑ၂ᚒ༧ኧǹ t Ǻ၂ᚒ༧ኧǹ r Ǻ၂ᚒ༧ӧᚒҁύрޑԛኧǹ OǺԋჹ၂ᚒ༧рӧ࣬ӕ༧Տޑԛኧ ҁࣴزҗॊޑϦԄפр಄ӝޑ BIB ϯीǴӧԜीύǴӅԖ 7 ঁᚒҁ Ȑ b ɨ7ȑǵ7 ঁ၂ᚒ༧Ȑt ɨ7ȑǴঁᚒҁх֖ 3 ঁ၂ᚒ༧Ȑ k ɨ3ȑǴЪ ၂ᚒ༧ӧ܌Ԗᚒҁύрޑԛኧࣁ 3 ԛȐ r ɨ3ȑǵԋჹ၂ᚒ༧ӧᚒҁύ рޑԛኧѝԖ 1 ԛȐOɨ1ȑǶҗԜёޕǴঁᚒҁύ၂ᚒ༧ޑಔӝόख़ፄǴ ٯӵǺᚒҁ S1 ޑ၂ᚒ༧ଛࣁ M1ǵM2ǵM4Ǵ߾ S2 Կ S7 ᚒҁύόӆр ၂ᚒ༧ M1ǵM2ǵM4 ޑಔӝǹ၂ᚒ༧ӧ܌Ԗᚒҁଛύख़ፄр 3 ԛǴ ٯӵǺ၂ᚒ༧ M1 рӧᚒҁ S1ǵS5ǵS7 ύǴ٩ԜᜪǴ၁ـ߄ 3-2Ȑමҏฑǵ ЦཫറǵդԽǵϺᆢǴ2006ȑǶ ߄ 3-2 BIB ϯीᚒҁଛ߄ ᚒҁׇဦ ༧Ȑk1ȑ ༧Ȑk2ȑ ༧Ȑk3ȑ S1 M1 M2 M4 S2 M2 M3 M5 S3 M3 M4 M6 S4 M4 M5 M7 S5 M5 M6 M1 S6 M6 M7 M2 S7 M7 M1 M3 ҁࣴزኳᔕঁᚒҁ၂ᚒኧࣁ60ᚒǴ၂ᚒ༧ኧ3ঁǴࡺঁ၂ᚒ༧ϐ၂ ᚒኧࣁ20ᚒǶӢԜǴҁीԖ7ঁ၂ᚒ༧Ǵᕴ၂ᚒኧࣁ140ᚒǶஒҁࣴزۓᗕ
၂ᚒኧᆶᕴ၂ᚒኧԋ߄3-3Ǻ ߄ 3-3 ۓᗕ၂ᚒኧᆶᕴ၂ᚒኧჹྣ߄ ϯ ी ༧ኧ ঁᚒҁ ᕴᚒኧ ঁᚒҁ ၂ᚒ༧ ኧ ঁᚒҁ ۓᗕ၂ᚒ Кٯ ঁᚒҁ ۓᗕ၂ᚒ ኧ ᚒᕴ၂ ᚒኧ BIB 7 60 3 1/3 20 140 ਥᏵҁࣴزϐࣴزᡂǴஒڙ၂ᕴΓኧۓࣁ 3570 Γǵ5460 Γǵ7560 ΓΟ ᅿǴ၁ӵ߄ 3-4Ƕ ߄3-4 BIBϯीΓኧჹྣ߄ ϯी ᕴڙ၂Γኧ ঁᚒҁ ڙ၂Γኧ ঁ၂ᚒ ڙ၂Γኧ 3570 510 1530 5460 780 2340 BIB 7560 1080 3240
ມǵNEAT ϯी
NEATϯीࣁෳᡍϯதҔޑीǴҁࣴزࣁΑКၨNEATϯी ᆶBIBϯीϐϯਏ݀ǴӢԜǴҗॊޑBIBϯी௨ӈрҁࣴزϐNEAT1 ϯीǶԜीӅԖ3ঁᚒҁǴ7ঁ၂ᚒ༧Ǵঁᚒҁх֖3ঁ၂ᚒ༧ǴЪ ஒಃঁ၂ᚒ༧ۓࣁۓᗕ၂ᚒǴځᚒҁଛӵ߄3-5Ƕ ߄3-5 NEATϯीᚒҁଛ߄ ᚒҁׇဦ ༧Ȑk1ȑ ༧Ȑk2ȑ ༧Ȑk3ȑ S1 M1 M2 M3 S2 M1 M4 M5 S3 M1 M6 M7ќѦǴࣁΑКၨۓᗕᚒКٯჹୖኧीޑቹៜǴӢԜीΑNEAT2ϯ ीǹԜीᆶॊޑNEAT1ϯी࣬ӕǴঁᚒҁᕴᚒኧࣁ60ᚒǴӅԖ3ঁᚒ ҁǴ7ঁ၂ᚒ༧Ǵঁᚒҁх֖3ঁ၂ᚒ༧ǴЪಃঁ၂ᚒ༧ࣁۓᗕ၂ᚒǴ ՠᆶNEAT1ϯीόӕϐೀࣁNEAT2ϯीϐಃঁ၂ᚒ༧ϣ၂ᚒኧ ۓࣁ10ᚒǴԶಃΒǵΟঁ၂ᚒ༧ϣ၂ᚒኧӚࣁ25ᚒǶஒҁࣴزۓᗕ၂ᚒኧᆶ ᕴ၂ᚒኧԋ߄3-6Ǻ ߄3-6 NEATϯीӧόӕۓᗕКٯϐ࣬ᜢᚒኧჹྣ߄ ϯ ी ༧ኧ ঁᚒҁ ᕴᚒኧ ঁᚒҁ ၂ᚒ༧ ኧ ঁᚒҁ ۓᗕ၂ᚒ Кٯ ঁᚒҁ ۓᗕ၂ᚒ ኧ ᚒᕴ၂ ᚒኧ NEAT1 7 60 3 1/3 20 140 NEAT2 7 60 3 1/6 10 160 ਥᏵҁࣴزϐࣴزᡂǴஒڙ၂ᕴΓኧۓࣁ 3570 Γǵ5460 Γǵ7560 ΓΟ ᅿǴ၁ӵ߄ 3-7Ƕ ߄3-7 NEATϯीΓኧჹྣ߄ ϯी ᕴڙ၂Γኧ ঁᚒҁ ڙ၂Γኧ ۓᗕ၂ᚒ ڙ၂Γኧ ځᎩ၂ᚒ ڙ၂Γኧ 3570 1190 3570 1190 5460 1820 5460 1820 NEAT1 7560 2520 7560 2520 3570 1190 3570 1190 5460 1820 5460 1820 NEAT2 7560 2520 7560 2520
ಃѤʳ ኳᔕჴᡍᡯ
ҁࣴزࣁኳᔕჴᡍǴჴᡍޑำׇӵΠǺ ǵࡌҥ၂ᚒᚒǴ٠வᚒύࡷᒧ၂ᚒಔԋᚒҁǹ Βǵኳᔕڙ၂ޣૈΚϩթϷӚᚒಔϐᚒಔਏ݀Ǵڙ၂ޣૈΚϩթܺவྗதᄊϩ թǴӚᚒಔϐᚒಔਏ݀ܺவதᄊϩթǹ ΟǵճҔϦԄȐ2-2ȑжΕᡯޑ၂ᚒୖኧǵᡯΒޑڙ၂ޣૈΚୖኧϷᚒಔਏ ݀Ǵीᆉڙ၂ޣբเӚ၂ᚒޑเჹᐒॶP(T)ǹ ѤǵஒU(0,1)ᒿᐒౢғϐॶᆶᡯΟ܌ౢғϐڙ၂ޣբเӚᚒޑเჹᐒॶ ) P(T КၨǴऩP(T)εܭҗU(0,1)ᒿᐒౢғϐॶǴ߾ຎࣁเჹǴϸϐ߾ຎ ࣁเᒱǴаԜБԄౢғڙ၂ޣբเϸᔈǹ ϖǵ٬ҔᡯѤ܌ౢғϐڙ၂ޣբเϸᔈǴճҔ SCORIGHT 3.0 ೬ᡏՉୖኧ ीǹ ϤǵਥᏵаޑჴᡍำׇǴख़ፄՉ 50 ԛǴаКၨόӕᡂीޑीᆒྗࡋǶಃϖʳ ຑБݤ
ҁࣴزஒচۈౢғϐୖኧຎࣁॶǴӆаॶౢғϐբเϸᔈՉୖኧी ࡕளډीॶǴीᆉॶᆶीॶ໔ϐ RMSEǴኳᔕ 50 ԛޑѳ֡ॶբࣁୖኧ ीᇤৡǴ٩Ԝٰຑᘐୖኧीϐਏ݀Ƕ ଞჹڙ၂ޣૈΚୖኧϷ၂ᚒୖኧȐ᠘ձࡋୖኧǵᜤࡋୖኧǵෳࡋୖኧȑϩ ձीᆉځ RMSEǶځीᆉϦԄӵΠǺ ǵڙ၂ޣૈΚୖኧ N N i i i i i¦
1 2 ) ˆ ( ) ˆ , ( RMSE T T T T Ȑ3-3ȑځύǴ N Ǻڙ၂ޣΓኧ i T ǺಃiՏڙ၂ޣૈΚॶ i Tˆ ǺಃiՏڙ၂ޣૈΚीॶ Βǵ၂ᚒୖኧȐ᠘ձࡋୖኧǵᜤࡋୖኧǵෳࡋୖኧȑ n n j j j j j
¦
1 2 ) ˆ ( ) ˆ , ( RMSE [ [ [ [ Ȑ3-4ȑ ځύǴ n Ǻ၂ᚒኧ j [ Ǻಃ jᚒ၂ᚒୖኧॶ j [ˆ Ǻಃ jᚒ၂ᚒୖኧीॶಃϤʳ ࣴزπڀ
ҁࣴز٬ҔޑπڀԖMATLAB೬ᡏǵSCORIGHT 3.0೬ᡏϷSPSS 12.0ύЎຎ ืހ೬ᡏǴϩॊӵΠǶ൘ǵMATLAB೬ᡏ
MATLAB ࢂঁଯਏޑኧॶीᆉȐnumerical computationȑکёຎϯ Ȑvisulationȑး೬ᡏǴᇟݤᙁൂЪගٮϣࡌޑڄኧǴѬૈ٬Ҕᙁൂޑࡰз ՉኧॶीᆉǵኳᔕǵᛤკǶӢԜǴҁࣴزճҔԜ೬ᡏኳᔕ၂ᚒୖኧᆶڙ၂ޣ ૈΚୖኧϐॶаϷڙ၂ޣբเϸᔈǴ٠Չၗᔞਢᙯඤᆶीᆉୖኧीᇤ ৡǶ
ມǵSCORIGHT 3.0೬ᡏ
SCORIGHT 3.0೬ᡏࢂঁխޑႝတำԄǴҔܭΒϡीϩǵӭᗺीϩޑ ၂ᚒᜪࠠᆶషӝᚒࠠȐх֖Βϡीϩ၂ᚒϷӭᗺीϩ၂ᚒȑǶԶෳᡍၗύޑ၂ ᚒёаӄࣁ࣬ϕᐱҥޑǴΨёаӄࣁᚒಔǴ܈ޣࢂٿޣషӝǶ ҁࣴزаᚒಔϸᔈፕύΟୖኧᚒಔኳԄࣁ୷ᘵǴ٬ҔSCORIGHT 3.0೬ᡏ ჹᚒಔԄෳᡍՉୖኧीǶୖǵSPSS 12.0ύЎຎืހ೬ᡏ
SPSSӄӜࣁStatistical Package for Social ScienceǴࢂᅿीး೬ᡏǴёז ೲӦ᠐ڗ٠ϩεໆޑၗǶԜ೬ᡏڀԖᙦЪᝄᙣޑीБݤǴаϷЪᆒ ጏޑीკ߄Ǵගٮ٬Ҕޣӧीϩޑၸำύֹ࣬ޑЍජǶ
ҁࣴز٬ҔSPSS 12.0ύЎຎืހ೬ᡏՉᐱҥኬҁTᔠۓǴஒ܌Ԗᡂϐ֡ БਥᇤৡՉᐱҥኬҁTᔠۓǴҔаղձࢂցԖᡉৡ౦Ƕ
ಃѤകʳ ࣴز่݀
ҁࣴزаᚒಔϸᔈፕύΟୖኧᚒಔኳԄࣁ୷ᘵǴ٠аRMSEբࣁୖኧी ᇤৡǴ٩ԜٰຑᘐӧόӕϯෳᡍნΠϩᚒಔԄෳᡍϐϯਏ݀ǶӢԜǴҁ കӅϩࣁΟǴಃࣁBIBϯीϐୖኧी่݀ǴಃΒࣁNEATϯी ϐୖኧी่݀ǴಃΟࣁBIBᆶNEATϯीϐୖኧी่݀КၨǶਥᏵኳᔕ ࣴزϐ่݀Ǵஒीᇤৡаკ߄ևǴ၁ಒ่݀ஒӧߕᒵᆶߕᒵΒևǶಃʳ BIBϯीϐୖኧी่݀
ଞჹ BIB ϯीܭόӕኳᔕნՉКၨǴаᚒಔԄෳᡍӧୖኧी ਔࢂցڙډΓኧǵᚒಔኧǵᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧޑόӕԶቹៜځୖኧीᆒྗࡋǶ൘ǵόӕΓኧჹୖኧीϐቹៜ
ҁࣴزӧڙ၂ᕴΓኧޑϩǴϩࣁ 3570 Γǵ5460 Γǵ7560 ΓΟᅿǴਥ Ᏽኳᔕࣴزϐ่݀Ǵځीᇤৡаკ߄ևǶӧڰۓෳᡍߏࡋࣁ 60 ᚒǵۓᗕК ٯࣁ 1/3ǵᚒಔኧࣁ 12 ᆶ 6 ঁޑݩΠǴკ 4-1 Կკ 4-4 ϩձࣁόӕڙ၂Γኧჹ ܭ၂ᚒ᠘ձࡋǵᜤࡋǵෳࡋϷڙ၂ޣૈΚୖኧϐीᇤৡǶҗ߄ 4-1 аϷკ 4-1 Կკ 4-4 ёวǴ၂ᚒୖኧаϷᚒಔਏ݀ϐीᇤৡᒿڙ၂ΓኧቚуԶफ़ եǴа 3570 ΓਔϐीᇤৡനεǴԶڙ၂ޣૈΚୖኧीᇤৡ߾όڙډڙ၂ ΓኧቹៜǶ߄ 4-1 BIB ϯीϐୖኧी่݀ RMSE / STD Γኧ ᚒಔኧ ᚒಔ၂ ᚒኧ ᚒಔਏ݀ ᡂ౦ኧ a b c T J 0.164 0.205 0.052 0.351 0.340 0 0.014 0.026 0.005 0.007 0.060 0.157 0.197 0.051 0.380 0.734 0.25 0.013 0.018 0.005 0.007 0.107 0.158 0.206 0.052 0.404 1.142 0.5 0.013 0.026 0.006 0.007 0.152 0.160 0.212 0.051 0.445 1.889 1 0.014 0.025 0.005 0.008 0.209 0.160 0.203 0.052 0.379 0.918 12 5 mix 0.012 0.024 0.005 0.007 0.122 0.159 0.197 0.051 0.349 0.280 0 0.016 0.020 0.005 0.007 0.037 0.152 0.199 0.052 0.397 0.807 0.25 0.013 0.025 0.006 0.006 0.096 0.147 0.196 0.049 0.437 1.316 0.5 0.014 0.020 0.004 0.007 0.136 0.152 0.201 0.048 0.498 2.156 1 0.011 0.016 0.004 0.006 0.174 0.154 0.197 0.050 0.396 1.011 3570 6 10 mix 0.014 0.021 0.005 0.006 0.098 0.122 0.182 0.048 0.348 0.286 0 0.010 0.015 0.003 0.006 0.046 0.129 0.177 0.048 0.378 0.689 0.25 0.010 0.015 0.003 0.007 0.085 0.133 0.181 0.048 0.405 1.094 0.5 0.009 0.015 0.003 0.007 0.126 0.135 0.187 0.047 0.449 1.817 1 0.008 0.015 0.003 0.007 0.164 0.125 0.182 0.048 0.379 0.861 5460 12 5 mix 0.011 0.024 0.005 0.006 0.093
߄ 4-1Ȑុȑ BIB ϯीϐୖኧी่݀ RMSE / STD Γኧ ᚒಔኧ ᚒಔ၂ ᚒኧ ᚒಔਏ݀ ᡂ౦ኧ a b c T J 0.127 0.181 0.049 0.349 0.241 0 0.011 0.019 0.005 0.007 0.028 0.120 0.181 0.049 0.399 0.763 0.25 0.009 0.018 0.004 0.006 0.078 0.121 0.180 0.047 0.438 1.264 0.5 0.008 0.019 0.004 0.006 0.107 0.123 0.180 0.045 0.502 2.078 1 0.008 0.015 0.003 0.006 0.137 0.122 0.179 0.047 0.398 0.973 5460 6 10 mix 0.009 0.015 0.003 0.006 0.080 0.108 0.168 0.046 0.349 0.257 0 0.008 0.018 0.004 0.007 0.039 0.113 0.172 0.046 0.378 0.672 0.25 0.011 0.017 0.004 0.006 0.077 0.115 0.175 0.046 0.404 1.077 0.5 0.010 0.017 0.004 0.006 0.111 0.120 0.177 0.045 0.448 1.809 1 0.008 0.015 0.003 0.006 0.151 0.112 0.173 0.046 0.380 0.849 12 5 mix 0.008 0.021 0.004 0.006 0.084 0.109 0.166 0.046 0.346 0.216 0 0.008 0.017 0.004 0.010 0.006 0.108 0.166 0.045 0.398 0.754 0.25 0.009 0.017 0.004 0.006 0.068 0.110 0.169 0.045 0.439 1.261 0.5 0.008 0.015 0.003 0.006 0.095 0.112 0.170 0.043 0.502 2.036 1 0.010 0.013 0.003 0.006 0.231 0.111 0.167 0.045 0.396 0.939 7560 6 10 mix 0.009 0.015 0.003 0.012 0.128
კ4-1 BIB ϯीΠǴόӕڙ၂Γኧჹܭ၂ᚒ᠘ձࡋୖኧϐीᇤৡ
კ4-2 BIB ϯीΠǴόӕڙ၂Γኧჹܭ၂ᚒᜤࡋୖኧϐीᇤৡ
კ4-4 BIB ϯीΠǴόӕڙ၂ΓኧჹܭૈΚୖኧϐीᇤৡ
ມǵᚒಔኧȐᚒಔ၂ᚒኧȑ
ҁࣴزӧڰۓෳᡍߏࡋޑݩΠǴᏹᚒಔኧࣁ 12 ঁᚒಔ܈ 6 ঁᚒಔٿᅿ ǴΨ൩ࢂঁᚒಔ၂ᚒኧࣁ 5 ᚒ܈ 10 ᚒٿᅿǴόӕᚒಔኧჹୖኧी ϐቹៜǶਥᏵኳᔕࣴزϐ่݀Ǵځीᇤৡаკ߄ևǴӧڰۓෳᡍߏࡋࣁ 60 ᚒǵۓᗕКٯࣁ 1/3ǵᕴڙ၂Γኧࣁ 3570 Γǵ5460 Γǵ7560 ΓޑݩΠǴკ 4-5 Կკ 4-8 ϩձࣁόӕᚒಔኧܭ၂ᚒ᠘ձࡋǵᜤࡋǵෳࡋǵڙ၂ޣૈΚୖኧϐ ीᇤৡǶҗ߄ 4-1 аϷკ 4-5 Կკ 4-8 ёޕǴෳᡍߏࡋόᡂǴЪӧόӕᚒಔਏ ݀ޑᡂ౦ำࡋΠǴᚒಔኧҗ 6 ঁᚒಔቚуࣁ 12 ঁᚒಔਔǴڙ၂ޣૈΚୖኧी ᇤৡᒿϐफ़եǴԶ၂ᚒୖኧीᇤৡᒿᚒಔኧޑቚуԶᡂεǴՠ၂ᚒ᠘ձ ࡋ ୖ ኧ ϐ ᇤ ৡ ᡂ ౦ ϟ ܭ 0.005~0.011 ϐ ໔ Ǵ ၂ ᚒ ᜤ ࡋ ୖ ኧ ϐ ᇤ ৡ ᡂ ౦ ϟ ܭ 0.002~0.011ϐ໔Ǵ၂ᚒෳࡋୖኧϐᇤৡᡂ౦ϟܭ 0.001~0.003 ϐ໔ǹќѦǴᚒ ಔਏ݀ीᇤৡҭᒿᚒಔኧቚуԶफ़եǴନΑӧᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧࣁ 0 ਔǴځ ीᇤৡӧ 6 ঁᚒಔਔၨλǶҗ SPSS 12.0 ύЎຎืހ೬ᡏՉᐱҥኬҁ T ᔠ ۓǴёޕᚒಔኧჹܭ၂ᚒୖኧीᇤৡ٠คᡉৡ౦Ƕკ4-5 BIB ϯीΠǴόӕᚒಔኧჹܭ၂ᚒ᠘ձࡋୖኧϐीᇤৡ
კ4-6 BIB ϯीΠǴόӕᚒಔኧჹܭ၂ᚒᜤࡋୖኧϐीᇤৡ
კ4-8 BIB ϯीΠǴόӕᚒಔኧჹܭૈΚୖኧϐीᇤৡ
ୖǵᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧ
ҁࣴزӧᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧޑϩǴᏹ 0ǵ0.25ǵ0.5ǵ1ǵmixȐషӝȑϖᅿ Ƕҗ߄ 4-1 аϷკ 4-1 Կკ 4-8 ёวǴᒿᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧᡂεǴڙ၂ޣ ૈΚୖኧϷᚒಔਏ݀ीᇤৡᒿϐቚуǹԶӧషӝᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧޑҽǴҗ ܭӧෳᡍᚒҁύޑᚒಔϩձԖόӕำࡋޑ၂ᚒ٩ᒘǴҽෳᡍޑѳ֡ᚒಔਏ ݀ᡂ౦ኧऊࣁ 0.44Ǵࡺڙ၂ޣૈΚୖኧϷᚒಔਏ݀ीᇤৡϟܭᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ ኧࣁ 0 ᆶ 1 ϐ໔ǶฅԶǴᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧჹܭ၂ᚒୖኧीᇤৡ٠ؒԖठޑ่ ݀ǶಃΒʳ NEATϯीϐୖኧी่݀
ଞჹ NEAT ϯीܭόӕኳᔕნՉКၨǴаᚒಔԄෳᡍӧୖኧ ीਔࢂցڙډΓኧǵᚒಔኧǵᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧޑόӕԶቹៜځୖኧीᆒྗ ࡋǶਥᏵߕᒵΒёޕǴӧόӕΓኧǵόӕᚒಔኧᆶόӕᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧޑݩΠǴ ځ่݀ᆶ BIB ϯीϯࡕϐी่݀ࢂठޑǶ ӧόӕڙ၂ΓኧޑҽǴ၂ᚒୖኧϷᚒಔਏ݀ीᇤৡᒿڙ၂Γኧቚу Զफ़եǹӧόӕᚒಔኧޑҽǴڙ၂ޣૈΚୖኧϷᚒಔਏ݀ϐीᇤৡᒿᚒ ಔኧቚуԶफ़եǹӧόӕᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧޑϩǴڙ၂ޣૈΚୖኧϷᚒಔਏ݀ϐ ीᇤৡᒿᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧᡂεԶቚуǴԶӧషӝᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧޑҽǴ җܭӧෳᡍᚒҁύޑᚒಔϩձԖόӕำࡋޑ၂ᚒ٩ᒘǴҽෳᡍޑѳ֡ᚒಔ ਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧऊࣁ 0.44Ǵࡺڙ၂ޣૈΚୖኧϷᚒಔਏ݀ϐीᇤৡϟܭᚒಔਏ݀ ᡂ౦ኧࣁ 0 ᆶ 1 ϐ໔Ƕ ӢԜǴҁଞჹόӕۓᗕКٯܭ NEAT ϯीϐୖኧी่݀уаඔ ॊǶҁࣴزϩࣁۓᗕ၂ᚒ՞ҽᚒҁޑ 1/3 ᆶ 1/6 ٿᅿǴਥᏵኳᔕࣴزϐ่ ݀Ǵځीᇤৡаკ߄ևǴҗ߄ 4-2 аϷკ 4-9 Կკ 4-12 ёޕǴෳᡍߏࡋό ᡂǴЪӧόӕᚒಔਏ݀ޑᡂ౦ำࡋΠǴۓᗕКٯҗ 1/6 ቚуࣁ 1/3 ਔǴڙ၂ޣૈ ΚୖኧϷ၂ᚒୖኧीᇤৡᒿϐफ़եǴԶᚒಔਏ݀ϐीᇤৡᒿϐቚуǴନ Αӧᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧࣁ 0 ਔǴځीᇤৡӧۓᗕКٯࣁ 1/3 ਔၨλǶฅԶǴ၂ᚒ ᠘ձࡋୖኧϐᇤৡᡂ౦ϟܭ 0.0004~0.008 ϐ໔Ǵҗ SPSS 12.0 ύЎຎืހ೬ᡏ Չᐱҥኬҁ T ᔠۓǴёޕόӕۓᗕКٯჹܭ၂ᚒ᠘ձࡋୖኧीᇤৡ٠คᡉ ৡ౦Ƕ߄ 4-2 NEAT ϯीϐୖኧी่݀ RMSE / STD Γኧ ᚒಔኧ ᚒಔ၂ ᚒኧ ۓᗕ Кٯ ᚒಔਏ݀ ᡂ౦ኧ a b c T J 0.138 0.207 0.051 0.333 0.328 0 0.013 0.021 0.005 0.007 0.057 0.139 0.204 0.051 0.365 0.753 0.25 0.013 0.023 0.005 0.007 0.101 0.144 0.205 0.051 0.393 1.172 0.5 0.013 0.027 0.005 0.007 0.149 0.149 0.213 0.050 0.441 1.932 1 0.013 0.025 0.005 0.007 0.207 0.143 0.202 0.050 0.370 1.027 1/3 mix 0.011 0.021 0.004 0.007 0.125 0.145 0.231 0.056 0.352 0.331 0 0.014 0.036 0.008 0.008 0.060 0.145 0.220 0.054 0.380 0.710 0.25 0.013 0.021 0.006 0.008 0.101 0.146 0.218 0.053 0.407 1.088 0.5 0.011 0.018 0.005 0.006 0.149 0.150 0.226 0.052 0.451 1.790 1 0.008 0.019 0.005 0.008 0.212 0.145 0.226 0.054 0.383 0.988 3570 12 5 1/6 mix 0.011 0.024 0.006 0.007 0.140 0.137 0.203 0.051 0.332 0.275 0 0.012 0.023 0.005 0.007 0.038 0.135 0.199 0.050 0.387 0.836 0.25 0.010 0.019 0.004 0.007 0.093 0.135 0.206 0.050 0.431 1.369 0.5 0.010 0.029 0.007 0.007 0.126 0.135 0.207 0.048 0.497 2.210 1 0.009 0.020 0.004 0.007 0.182 0.135 0.202 0.050 0.378 1.017 3570 6 10 1/3 mix 0.010 0.021 0.005 0.006 0.098
߄ 4-2Ȑុȑ NEAT ϯीϐୖኧी่݀ RMSE / STD Γኧ ᚒಔኧ ᚒಔ၂ ᚒኧ ۓᗕ Кٯ ᚒಔਏ݀ ᡂ౦ኧ a b c T J 0.138 0.219 0.053 0.351 0.277 0 0.011 0.022 0.005 0.008 0.036 0.135 0.213 0.052 0.399 0.785 0.25 0.012 0.020 0.005 0.007 0.094 0.137 0.215 0.051 0.439 1.263 0.5 0.010 0.018 0.005 0.007 0.125 0.137 0.219 0.050 0.503 2.063 1 0.009 0.019 0.004 0.007 0.183 0.136 0.214 0.052 0.389 0.934 3570 6 10 1/6 mix 0.012 0.021 0.006 0.008 0.096 0.120 0.188 0.049 0.331 0.286 0 0.011 0.023 0.005 0.006 0.047 0.122 0.186 0.049 0.363 0.725 0.25 0.011 0.021 0.005 0.006 0.089 0.127 0.189 0.049 0.392 1.155 0.5 0.010 0.020 0.004 0.006 0.123 0.132 0.195 0.047 0.439 1.916 1 0.009 0.020 0.005 0.007 0.168 0.122 0.189 0.049 0.370 1.005 1/3 mix 0.010 0.023 0.005 0.006 0.104 0.123 0.203 0.052 0.350 0.285 0 0.010 0.026 0.007 0.007 0.048 0.124 0.204 0.051 0.367 0.569 0.25 0.010 0.016 0.005 0.017 0.147 0.128 0.202 0.051 0.407 1.065 0.5 0.011 0.022 0.005 0.007 0.125 0.135 0.213 0.050 0.450 1.776 1 0.011 0.018 0.004 0.006 0.173 0.126 0.203 0.051 0.383 0.961 5460 12 5 1/6 mix 0.011 0.020 0.005 0.007 0.118
߄ 4-2Ȑុȑ NEAT ϯीϐୖኧी่݀ RMSE / STD Γኧ ᚒಔኧ ᚒಔ၂ ᚒኧ ۓᗕ Кٯ ᚒಔਏ݀ ᡂ౦ኧ a b c T J 0.120 0.185 0.049 0.330 0.236 0 0.011 0.024 0.005 0.006 0.027 0.117 0.187 0.049 0.386 0.815 0.25 0.008 0.020 0.005 0.005 0.080 0.116 0.186 0.047 0.429 1.348 0.5 0.008 0.017 0.004 0.006 0.110 0.121 0.190 0.046 0.495 2.202 1 0.009 0.022 0.004 0.005 0.150 0.118 0.187 0.048 0.380 1.000 1/3 mix 0.010 0.021 0.004 0.006 0.079 0.122 0.199 0.052 0.349 0.228 0 0.010 0.023 0.007 0.006 0.030 0.119 0.197 0.051 0.398 0.764 0.25 0.007 0.023 0.005 0.007 0.078 0.122 0.195 0.049 0.439 1.249 0.5 0.008 0.016 0.004 0.005 0.108 0.121 0.199 0.048 0.502 2.060 1 0.008 0.016 0.004 0.006 0.151 0.119 0.197 0.050 0.391 0.918 5460 6 10 1/6 mix 0.007 0.018 0.004 0.007 0.080 0.106 0.177 0.047 0.329 0.253 0 0.009 0.017 0.004 0.006 0.040 0.109 0.178 0.047 0.363 0.695 0.25 0.008 0.014 0.003 0.007 0.017 0.115 0.182 0.047 0.392 1.145 0.5 0.009 0.027 0.006 0.005 0.113 0.120 0.184 0.046 0.438 1.913 1 0.007 0.017 0.003 0.005 0.153 0.111 0.178 0.047 0.369 0.983 7560 12 5 1/3 mix 0.010 0.024 0.005 0.006 0.024
߄ 4-2Ȑុȑ NEAT ϯीϐୖኧी่݀ RMSE / STD Γኧ ᚒಔኧ ᚒಔ၂ ᚒኧ ۓᗕ Кٯ ᚒಔਏ݀ ᡂ౦ኧ a b c T J 0.109 0.189 0.050 0.348 0.253 0 0.007 0.018 0.004 0.007 0.041 0.110 0.187 0.049 0.379 0.656 0.25 0.009 0.019 0.004 0.005 0.078 0.115 0.189 0.048 0.405 1.053 0.5 0.008 0.019 0.004 0.006 0.115 0.120 0.196 0.048 0.450 1.767 1 0.009 0.017 0.004 0.006 0.158 0.113 0.186 0.048 0.382 0.943 7560 12 5 1/6 mix 0.008 0.016 0.003 0.007 0.102 0.105 0.170 0.046 0.328 0.213 0 0.008 0.014 0.003 0.007 0.008 0.107 0.171 0.045 0.386 0.810 0.25 0.008 0.017 0.004 0.006 0.021 0.107 0.172 0.045 0.428 1.342 0.5 0.006 0.016 0.003 0.005 0.088 0.109 0.174 0.043 0.495 2.198 1 0.008 0.016 0.004 0.004 0.126 0.106 0.172 0.046 0.381 0.988 1/3 mix 0.009 0.018 0.003 0.007 0.023 0.107 0.184 0.049 0.348 0.214 0 0.007 0.017 0.004 0.006 0.026 0.109 0.179 0.048 0.397 0.676 0.25 0.009 0.015 0.004 0.006 0.059 0.110 0.186 0.048 0.438 1.248 0.5 0.008 0.015 0.004 0.006 0.099 0.110 0.184 0.045 0.502 2.050 1 0.006 0.014 0.003 0.006 0.130 0.107 0.185 0.048 0.390 0.905 7560 6 10 1/6 mix 0.008 0.021 0.005 0.007 0.075
კ4-9 NEAT ϯीΠǴόӕۓᗕКٯჹܭ၂ᚒ᠘ձࡋୖኧϐीᇤৡ
კ4-11 NEAT ϯीΠǴόӕۓᗕКٯჹܭ၂ᚒෳࡋୖኧϐीᇤৡ
ಃΟʳ BIBᆶNEATϯीϐୖኧी่݀Кၨ
ਥᏵኳᔕࣴزϐ่݀Ǵځीᇤৡаკ߄ևǶҗ߄ 4-1ǵ߄ 4-2 аϷკ 4-13 Կ 4-16 ёޕǴӧڰۓෳᡍߏࡋࣁ 60 ᚒǴۓᗕКٯࣁ 1/3 ਔǴ၂ᚒ᠘ձࡋୖኧϷ ڙ၂ޣૈΚୖኧϐीᆒྗࡋࢂ NEAT ϯीᓬܭ BIB ϯीǴԶ၂ᚒᜤࡋ ୖኧǵෳࡋୖኧϷᚒಔਏ݀ϐीᆒྗࡋεठࢂ BIB ϯीᓬܭ NEAT ϯीǴᚒಔਏ݀ϐीᆒྗࡋӧᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧࣁ 0 ਔࣁ NEAT ϯीᓬ ܭ BIB ϯीǶฅԶǴ၂ᚒᜤࡋୖኧϐᇤৡᡂ౦ϟܭ 0.0005~0.009 ϐ໔Ǵ၂ᚒ ෳࡋୖኧϐᇤৡᡂ౦ϟܭ 0.0001~0.002 ϐ໔Ǵҗ SPSS 12.0 ύЎຎืހ೬ᡏ Չᐱҥኬҁ T ᔠۓǴёޕόӕϯीჹܭ၂ᚒᜤࡋୖኧϷ၂ᚒෳࡋୖኧ ीϐᇤৡ٠คᡉৡ౦Ƕ კ4-13 όӕϯीჹܭ၂ᚒ᠘ձࡋୖኧϐीᇤৡკ4-14 όӕϯीჹܭ၂ᚒᜤࡋୖኧϐीᇤৡ
კ4-16 όӕϯीჹܭૈΚୖኧϐीᇤৡ ԜѦǴҁࣴزҭଞჹNEATϯीύۓᗕ၂ᚒᆶߚۓᗕ၂ᚒϐीਏ݀ ՉǴӵ߄4-4܌ҢǶځύǴࣴزᡂаN_n_m_r߄ҢǴNж߄ᕴڙ၂ΓኧǴn ж߄ӚᚒҁෳᡍߏࡋǴmж߄Ӛᚒҁ܌х֖ϐᚒಔኧǴrж߄ᚒಔਏ݀ᡂ౦ኧǶ җ߄4-4ёޕǴ၂ᚒᜤࡋୖኧϷ၂ᚒෳࡋୖኧӧۓᗕᚒޑҽᇤৡၨλǴԶ ၂ ᚒ ᠘ ձ ࡋ ୖ ኧ ࣁ ߚ ۓ ᗕ ᚒ ޑ ҽ ᇤ ৡ ၨ λ Ǵ ନ Α ӧ 5460_60_6_mix ǵ 7560_60_6_0.5ǵ7560_60_6_1аϷ7560_60_6_mix೭ѤᅿࣴزᡂΠࣁۓᗕᚒޑ ϩᇤৡၨλǴՠৡ౦όεǶҗSPSS 12.0ύЎຎืހ೬ᡏՉᐱҥኬҁTᔠۓࡕǴ ว၂ᚒ᠘ձࡋୖኧϷ၂ᚒෳࡋୖኧӧۓᗕᚒᆶߚۓᗕᚒϐᇤৡ٠คᡉৡ ౦ǹΨ൩ࢂᇥǴ၂ᚒᜤࡋୖኧӧNEATϯीύۓᗕᚒޑϩीޑၨࣁᆒྗǴ Զ၂ᚒ᠘ձࡋୖኧϷ၂ᚒෳࡋୖኧӧۓᗕᚒᆶߚۓᗕᚒϐᇤৡ߾ؒԖܴᡉৡ ౦ǶќѦǴ၂ᚒ᠘ձࡋୖኧǵ၂ᚒᜤࡋୖኧϷ၂ᚒෳࡋୖኧӧۓᗕᚒᆶߚۓᗕ ᚒϐीᇤৡࣣᒿڙ၂ΓኧቚуԶᡂλǶ
߄ 4-3 NEAT ϯीܭۓᗕᚒᆶߚۓᗕᚒϐ၂ᚒୖኧी่݀ RMSE / STD ࣴزᡂ a b c 0.162ʳ 0.121ʳ 0.043ʳ ۓᗕᚒ! 0.028ʳ 0.025ʳ 0.008ʳ 0.131ʳ 0.217ʳ 0.053ʳ ߚۓᗕᚒ! 0.014ʳ 0.023ʳ 0.005ʳ 0.138 0.207 0.051 3570_60_12_0 ѳ֡! 0.013 0.021 0.005 0.161ʳ 0.113ʳ 0.043ʳ ۓᗕᚒ! 0.029ʳ 0.022ʳ 0.008ʳ 0.135ʳ 0.216ʳ 0.052ʳ ߚۓᗕᚒ! 0.013ʳ 0.026ʳ 0.006ʳ 0.139 0.204 0.051 3570_60_12_0.25 ѳ֡! 0.013 0.023 0.005 0.165ʳ 0.116ʳ 0.042ʳ ۓᗕᚒ! 0.032ʳ 0.023ʳ 0.009ʳ 0.139ʳ 0.216ʳ 0.052ʳ ߚۓᗕᚒ! 0.014ʳ 0.029ʳ 0.006ʳ 0.144 0.205 0.051 3570_60_12_0.5 ѳ֡! 0.013 0.027 0.005 0.165ʳ 0.118ʳ 0.040ʳ ۓᗕᚒ! 0.026ʳ 0.022ʳ 0.006ʳ 0.146ʳ 0.224ʳ 0.051ʳ ߚۓᗕᚒ! 0.016ʳ 0.028ʳ 0.006ʳ 0.149 0.213 0.050 3570_60_12_1 ѳ֡! 0.013 0.025 0.005 0.164ʳ 0.116ʳ 0.045ʳ ۓᗕᚒ! 0.036ʳ 0.024ʳ 0.009ʳ 0.138ʳ 0.213ʳ 0.051ʳ ߚۓᗕᚒ! 0.012ʳ 0.023ʳ 0.004ʳ 0.143 0.202 0.050 3570_60_12_mix ѳ֡! 0.011 0.021 0.004