國際政治經濟的互賴關係

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(1)~.~~~. ~~. ~~~. ~~~. "..... 4t1. 1nn. _x:_"'·. ~~~~~~. .."'. ...ox. t:tm!,. -. ~. ". -tJ1SI. 'r. .~. •. ,.. ..;:::..=W1:::t:='bo,.J. --=0.. U!IlE'''':;S'''1<T\t!-9~1!'\!'''1<T\IIIII() ~. (15II'~1I3£~~t::t=-P',.J. ~~-K:#t~tlE~J;:~-H-l. ~ ~1i~~~~li!!I!l. -. Gr.ii!' ~. 0. --~. N\ ~ ~ ~. ,~~ ,~ ~ ,..J. ~=. ,~. 1 ~:&i~~~il~~. ~. .te>~ae>4&~~~-.:&.. ~. toJ.~ ~. om t&. m;(T. I'. ~ef"1~. \. ~~~~:&i~J;:~-H-l.4Jl!:gr •.. 2mi~~~~J;:~-H-l. ~ -£II. .~.~.~~~~~1~~~~.~~~~~~~~~~.~~~*~.:&i~:&iOM~~~:&i~tlE~.~~~4Jl!:~~~~,. ~.~:&i,.~~~~:&i,~~~:&i~.~~~••• :&i~~.il~~•• ~~~mi.'~~~'.~~~~.'~~~~. ,. ~tlE) M~-K:. (. 0. e~~.~~~*,.. ~~.il~~~~•••~~o~~~~#t~tlE¢~-H-l.~~~~~~'~~~.'~+*.~o*~~~~~~~~~* ( political process) .. I]Bl!:!li~~ , n~~.~ ffi~~~III:&i~ilfi~ 0. ~~~~~~:&i~~~~. ql'~~~~ -W.~~~~~~~:l!~~illr ~ *~.*".111.l~H~~:&i!ll~·· _~~.~C"I~~. ~~~:&i~~~~~.~~¢~$o~~~~~~~~:&i~~~~*~ ••• ~~~~~~~~~~l!1l~~~~o~*~ GAn(~• • • ~). 0. 0. (§. ,.~~• • • ,~~.~~~• •~r~~.~J~.~.l!1l~:&i-K:.o~-K:!Il~n~~$~~ #Ilt'fllm ( Kenneth N. Waltz) f$~~Ii~~$!-<!::!Il:&i!ll~~~~~~:&i* 1 ~~ ~. ~tll1:&i~~_~~~-K::llIUI~!fi:&i~J;:ilfi. ~~!Il~ ( liik~~~*~J;:ilfi~-mmi-K::&i~IEI~~~:&i) ~*11~~ ~ ~~-~~~:&i~~~~~*111~~. Kenneth N. Waltz, Man, the State and War( N. Y.: Columbia University Press, 1954 ) ; J. David Singer, "The Level-of- Analysis Problem in International Relations," in Klaus Knoor and Sidney Verba, eds., The International System, (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1961) pp.. ~. t\l8. 77-92. l;t.i@ Waltz, op. cit.. __. ". __ ,. 0. 0. -W*~:&i~~~~fi!&-a- ~ 4Jl!:-<~~*111~~~-H-l1iS ~ 1¥l~4Jl!:-<~~*11~~~-H-l1iS ~ :Je~f$~~~~~ ( international politics) ~ ~~f$~**<~$7 ( foreign policy) @:Je~:&i~~:iEtf.~.!f~H~ ( Hans J. Morgenthau ) :&im;~ 9~.:!{!:'! :&i.~-~~:&i¢ilfi~~.~~~~:&i~~~~~ •• ~~-~~~~liik~~~~~~~~~~o~~~:l!fi!&:&i~:&i~ •• ,..

(2) @~iiE~:i£i.~:i:t+~.~~. 0. e1~~-<~~~11*~~+H1f5 ~ ~iiE~ • • !Im~~~ (international ( Hans J, Morgenthau ) :i£iM1~ @~lt$!. :ii;J(d Kenneth N. Waltz, Man, the State and War( N. Y.: Columbia University Press, 1954); J. David Singer, "The Level-of-Analysis Problem in International Relations," in Klaus Knoor and Sidney Verba, eds., The International System, (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1961) pp.. 77-92.. Waltz, op. cit .. 0. .J;ti*~:i£iHl[~~~.Hj.. ~ ~-<~~~111*~~*Hf:S ~. politics) ~ ~~.~~~~~ ( foreign policy). :i£i~~~HI[~:i£i~~~~.~~~~:i£i~~~~~.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~1~o~~~~~:i£i~:i£i~~~. .~ • • HI[~~~:i£ir¢.~J~~~~.~~o~~.~~~ • • • ~~~HI[~~~ • • ~:i£i(*~~~.~~~~:i£i~. ~~~) .$!HI[~~~~ 0 .~~~ ~ ~~~11*~.~:i£iI-.~.m-.-33t-.~~~+H.:i£i~HI[+H.~ ~ @J~.J;ti.*+H.~~. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. • •~~.r~lfi!\il~~'h:{J~~~Hlt.t-.. 0. ~~.*~ • • • • *~.~~~~HI[(~.~.)~~.*-~.$!~(.*+H.)*~~~-.l • • • • t-.HI[~~~ ~~~~ltHl[~IIl!:~~~~' HI[~~JEJ:*~~ ( ~~~JEJ:~.J;ti~) :i£i1n~ 1 ~11*~:i£i~~~~. .J;ti~~~~~~ ~ ~~.~111*~.~11*~:i£i~~~~~it:i£i l"ii'm!~f><~~ ( Graham T. Allison) :i£il11.:1WtH~* ~~.~ ~:::'AIl.~.t;:::~~ ( the rational actor ) ~'h:{~~.~~ ( organizational process) ~'h:{M1Jm.~~~( government politics ) ~'h:{ o@ r 41lM1z.t;:::~~~'h:{ J ~~-~~~. 1 :i£iz.t;:::~~ - ~ • • ~~~ - ~• • ~~:i£i~~~:i£i.:ttH~~ o~~~~~.~:i£i~111*~~'h:{ r ~.~~~'h:{ J ~ ~lE~~-~~:i£iz.t;:::iii~~z.t;:::~~.~.J;ti:i£iz.t;:::~ft:\'h:{ - *~~$lH~-iJ1 ~~~~~=~~~~~~~~~~~or1Jm.~~~~'h:{J~~~lE~~-~~~~.l:i£i~~ • • ~~:i£i+H.~~~~~ ~iIT~~~~.~~.~l$~:i£i1Jm.~~1f in~:glliDll~~If~~I1S~:i£i~tf~~ ,. ~:i£i*z.t;:::~ JEJ:~ - 1 ~~~:i£i~~i!\iI~ - ~~~iDll~~.:i£i r ~1Jm. J ~Hlt~:i£i~~ r ~iDll J 1Il!:~~~:i£i.~*~.:i£i ~~~:gI1.~~-m-\t;{ ~"EfH~.iDll~~tf:i£i~~. ~l~~~:i£ir~1Jm.J:i£i~¢~-\t;{~:i£i-~~~~.~~.HI[:i£i~~~.~~o ~1 *~:i£i~~~~.~~HI[~.~~~~~~~:i£i~.o. 0. ( linkage politics). 0. 0. -. ~~~*,~ml[~.~. ,.. HI[~. ,. ~. 1J1~.~~Itf~IIl!::i£i~~~~:i£i~~.~. *,~~~~1¢~:i£i~~~~~. e1~ ~ ~~~.J;ti~~~1¢$:1~~:i£i~~ ~ ~l"ii'~~~II]*~~~~:i£i.g:~.~~:i£i.~~iI ~ ~~~~:i£iam~~~$l~ ltHl[~.~*~~:i£i11~.~11*~:i£i~~~~.~.!!::i£i. r ~:Wi~~ J. ~ll1~1tf~:i£i~~ ~ ~~~@~~Itf~IIl!::i£i~~~~ (.~~~~) ~~~3t!!H.t;:::~$ ~.~~. ~. ~f.R. :IT.I@l James N. Rosenau, ed., International Politics and Foreign Policy ( N. Y.: Free Press, 1968 ) . Introduction. :!l;l@ Hans J. Morgenthau, Politics among Nations, 5th ed. ( N. Y.: Knopf, 1973 ) . :!l;j@J Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics ( Reading, Mass.: Addison- Wesley, 1979) . Graham T. Allison, Essence of Decision (Boston, Mass.: Little, Brown, 1971 ) . :!l;lEJ James N. Rosenau, ed., Linkage Politics (N. Y.: Free Press, 1969) ; Robert D. Putman, "Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two Level Games," International Organization, Vol. 42, No.3 ( Summer 1988 ) , pp. 427......00. gi!~~~I!;:g:;\lrl~II$.

(3) ~.~~~. ~~~. ~~~. :\!m~l!l!!ffillh~it~1n,l!l§~~~ 0. 1m~-~1!E~~~~. ~~~~~~. ( EIl-). J ~~4a). {lIlI~~~ ( ~~.tt¢I. -tJK. ( ~~ r 1m~~~ J ~~~) ( N). 0. iJ1,1!1~llll(••~~:I1*: 11~$R~1m~~~.~~1!.ii~ ~. )1m~~~(~~.tt¢Ir.~~~J~~~~) °W.~~~I111!!~~~~~~~~~W~~~~~~§~. :\!m~~tI-<~111$1II1!!~~~~~5R~~. 0. ~~~~~~)(. ~~. ..... r ~I!J-$:$~~ J ~~ ( ~~l!\SEiS[~W#mJ( r. 1m~ •• ~~~~~~~1!EIII1!!~~~~~~~~~.~~~$:$~~1m~~~trO~~~~$:$~~~~~~~~*~1m~.~ ~~-E>0. r ~-~I!J • • ( ~~). ~. 0. J ~~ ( r:t:1!J J llll( r ~~ J ~~4a). 0. inEJ~~~. C'-l r ~I!J-~I!.ii~ ( ~~ ( r:t:1!J J llll( r 1m~lQ:i~ J ~~4a) inEJ~m:l1*:11~$R ( second image reversed) §-~~ l!\SEiS[~W#~~~o~~~~~*~rl!J~J~~~~1!E~~~~~~~~~~~~r~I!JJlQ:i~1m~ •• ~o r ~~ J ~~.t;:~~~1m~.~~~~~. ~. r~I!JJ.~~~1!E~ •••• r~.Jllll(r~I!JJN~~~~oS~~~~a • .tt¢I~~~o.g~~r~I!JJ~~1!E~1m. ~~~~~~~~~~~~.~~~~~r:t:I!J--~I!.ii~J~~og.~~~:t:~.~~~~~~~.~~~r~I!J-$:$. 0. ~~J oe~~~.~1!E~r1m~~~J~~~~.:t:~.~~~~~s~~.~.r:t:I!JJllll(r~.J~.~a.~.t. 1 ~~lf#1~~~.t;:.~.~. 0. ~WJ~~~llll(f.:I~1m~~~" ~~~~~~~$R(. :11*:111. ~r~1!E~~~J~~(~~l!\SEiS[:t:~#llll(r1m~~~J~~4a) oS~~~~~~~~~1!E~~t~l~~~~~~. ~~_.~~~~~~t.t;:iIi~~ ~~~~~~~~*~~1m~•• ~. *.)~~~~~~oS~~~~~~~~~~~.~r1m~~~J °W~~~~~~~tr~1m~.tt¢I.~~.=e~~~llll(. 0. ~.W.~.~~~~~. r~~~~J~~~.~r1m~~~J~~.~~.~ •• ~~.~~.~Wo.~~r~I!J-$:$~~J~~r~I!J-~1!.ii r ~-:t: ••• ~ J ~~ ~ ~tr~~~~~~~~.~1:::j~ ~~W~~~~~~~tr ~ ~1!E ( 1m~) ~~.~~. •••"•••. •••. §~~~~~._~~WJ§~~~~*~~.W1~~o~~~_~~~~~~~~*. $~t~~~~~~.( r1m~~~J)~~g=~~~ •• ~~*.~@.~~ Dllj(.~.o. W~~~~~~tr~.~~~~. .~~~M~ •• ~~oa~M~~~~~III1!!~~~.a~w~=.~s~.a.~~~~llll(~~g~~.~~~~ ~. Peter Gourevitch, "The Second Image Reversed," International Organization, Vol. 32, No.4 ( Autumn 1978 ) , pp. 881-912.. :H;;@) Stephen D. Krasner, Defending the National Interest ( Priceton, N. J.: Priceton Unjversity Press, 1979 ) .. 0. 1lO(* (. 0. 0. ~ 1• Bayless Manning ) fIiJH1j!!J~ • • ~ r 1m~:t:~~ J (intermestic politics) ~§"!II~~~ ( international politics) llll(1m~~~ (domestic politics) ~.4a W~~~~~~~tr ~ .tt¢I!II~t.t;:~~~N~~~~=e~$it ~ W~~ ,. ,. ~.. ~~~~~~~N~~~.~t~~~~~$-<~=e(~~=e) o~~~~1m~~.~~~~~~~$it~(~~~e) ......

(4) }'cli:!:J. 0. Nepnen V.. Krasner, Ue/ending the National Interest ( Priceton, N. J.: Priceton University Press, 1979 ) .. 0. 0. ~ I ei mg~~.. ( Bayless Manning ) l'I~\!!II!l~~~ r !i!-K::t:~$ J ( intermestic politics) ~liit!i!~~'$: ( international politics ) ffil(!i!-K:~$ (domestic politics) :@ii!~1! i#.!!i;foi:l~H~:@$:l~-8- ~ .$!i!:@~t:~~gcN~:@~~M~~~ ~ i#~!ii[. ~~~~~~~N~~~~~~~:@~~~~~:@M~(~~M~) o!ii[~A~!i!~:@ • •~~M~~~~~(~~M~) o• •~~~~ • • :@·~.:@-K:~ffil(:t:~:@ii!~~~~~*.~:@~!i!.~M~·~.'~~@~:@M~:@.!!i;foiM.ffil(. ~o. J 0. ~~.~~~~~~I~~i#~foi~~$:l~-8-~~~~:@~I!l~$.~~liitr-K:~-~~~J~r:t:~-~~~J~ -K:-:t:~~.~. r .g:1!!-~~i1l J m~~. 0. 0. ~~lEht;~ ~ r -K:~-~~~ J ~~~~~ 1 2:1$2~{l!l:!~~M~:@!i!-K:.J!i[:@~.~ ~\!!I~1l.J!i[~~~~~~-R ~ ~~~ !i!~~~1l!ll-.ltll tr..1~. o:j(:fll(~.~{l!l:!:\!lK!i! 1 -FZl110J#-:@r ~~~-~~M~J (Smoot-Hawley Tariff) ;@~$~atI o© ~~A~~.~~~.~~M~A~~~( • • )~~~-Ro~~~~~~~*~~~~~:@~~A~~~~~M:j(~~~ :@~M~ft.~~foi • • ~~A • • *~.~~.~.~KO~:@.~~~o~~ • • • M~~-~i# • • ~~!i!&!i!-K:m riR:t: ~ :fK~ • •~*~~rt-~@~:@$$ (Herbert Hoover).~ _ ~~{l!l:!ijj~~~:j(~1:::j -m.~~:@~~.~~1:::j:@. 0. ;@_lI[ 0 ~\!!I.1nl!M~~~~:j($1!i!.~~~:!1;!!I~~.+H:1I A~~~~~~.:@*'~ A~*,!i!~ei~!il+<t::. 0 .~~~r-:\!lK!i!~:t:~~~_;@~{)l;!~atI- $~~~1n~I!l!il~;@ r -K:~-~~~ J ~~:@4iJ~ Im~ 1 -FZ«.Itt-:@~~I!. ~~-1110 1 ~411~;@~~ '~~~~111111-tJ~:@~~( !Il~.\illlI.~1l!llW!!;@~.- ~~i#!i!-K:~{l!l:!~~.~~W!!:@~~~:!):: ~~!i!:t:~~~~~.~~)~~~!i!-K:~~!ii[~~.J!i[(~~~~~):@~-R~1l!ll-.ltl:@o. 0. ~~-r-K:~-~~~J~~-~~~ffil(~.+H • .!!i;~:@-~~~~!i!-K:~• • ~W!!-R:@M~:@1l!ll~olm~~m-m.~ ~(~:@ • • i##.-8-~+H.~~:@~-~~~_~.~m-m.~~€-~~~~.1l!ll-.ltlr-K:~J(~~{l!l:!!il~~:@~.~) -' ~ ~jp.~K +l!t~~ - :\!lK!i! 1 .~~~\!!II!l~@-8- @~~ - ~:\!lKli1.ei:@.~-R~~. - ~~.~t:~.+H:1I.J!i[:@-R.. .l?.l?. BAvless Manning, "The Congress, the Executive and Interrnestic Affairs: Three Proposals," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 55. No.2 (January 1977 ) • pp .. ~~~$~~:g;\:li!il!:i~.

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(6) L. -. UQklVllGU J..:J\.;VllUllH\,;,. 1.,0 I. } •. ~ Putnam and Bayne, Hanging Together: Cooperation and Conflict in the Seven - Power Summits ( Cambridge: Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1987) .. 0. 0. 0. :l£Rmr:1i W~Ioi:l$fi!l;:::l£~~~~.'8i-fl- ~ ~~ r -K:1ll-$.'S~~ J flS( r :t"~-~.~ J ~~N!!!41lt;.~f!:~~~ ~.Wl~~N-K:~~~.r-K:IllJ~~~:l£I~~~~~.r:t"IllJ~~~:l£l~o~~.&•• ~~~~N(~~)~ ~~ilr~lttJ{ r :t"1ll J ~ r -K:. J ~Illll-R ~ ~.:lnK~~:t:~~ Rt~~.~ (Richard Rosecrance) f$i11~Il~Ioi~i!l;::-fI-:l£~ N. r ~~~N J (mediative state) o~~11ll!N ~ ~N.:t".S:;:w!-< ~ .-K:.Rmr:Ii-l\4I ~ ~.~.~~••~-K:~~*:t"W. ~~:t"~~*-K:w~~~r~.J~:l£ •• oW~~Il~~~~~~-fl-r~~~NJ:l£~~~.&~~~~*W~~~~~~ ~N(~~)W-K::t"~~-fl-r~~-<J~:l£~~~~o. 0. Jm.(.-E:K~. ~~~r~~~NJ~~.r:t"IllJ~r-K:~J~~~~~~~~~:lnKOO.:l£o~~l~wr~~~~J:l£~~-K:~~~ -fI-~~~. r {JI!i\i-33 tl~~ J (voluntary export restraints ~ lmf$. VER ) tH~ ~ ©flS(:ti~~ ~ tl!5!1:!Jt\~iiii(~~~. ~m*:l£~~:t"~~11111 ~ :t"~~~~~mllJ~ ~ .&*{JI!~~:l£. o.~ ~ lm.~. ~ W~:t:~~~-K:~~i!l;::W.~~ r -K:~ J :l£~$~~~ r :t"1ll J :l£~$ ~ WiJ1~~\I~gc r.:t". J ~ 1:::1~.~_~~~tgli:~. 0. ~*~~.t:t:. m!N,ijlll~:I:H~~:l£~~. :l£§I. ~. l~~~~~m~.D~~~~~~lIJ.:l£~~o~~~~.~m*~tl~.~~~~Il~~~:lnK~~~~W~. -K:~~:l£.~~~.:tiIl~mo~Il~~W~~I~~N~~~~o~~.~~~~m~.D~.~~~I~~~~r~~. ~~J ". 1. ~~iH!lt:l£~gc ~ ~-R1+1V*.m~~~~~ tl~~. .. ~~~:l£$I![~~~~lIJ·~:l£~~.~~~~~~~~il~. 0. ~1lllW!l!I$.~. ~o~~~~~.~~.:t"~~••*~~:ti.o~W~.:l£~~.~~*.~~l~.~o~~~~~_~~~~-K:1:!Jt\ •. •. ( Office of Management and Budget) ~ m~~~~:jgOOl\lllll(. ' ~~~~-Mn~~~ij;~ tl ~~~!.!WI~il~~~~$l$-Mn~m. ( ~Ef~-m~~€m*~$:l£{JI!iii-33tl~ij;). ~~lt<~.~~:l£tnW!~.~~~~.~~. ( David A.. Stockman. lIJ~~~:ti~~:l£~~S:;:~~~~.&.~~*~~~~~~-fl-°W~Il~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-33~~~~o~. &~ij;~tl. a. ).w~~r~~m*~~{JI!iii-33tl~~~~~~~~~.~J o&~~~~~~~~~S:;:~~~m~~~~m*.~~-33 tl~.~~{JI!iii-33tl~ij;:l£~*~~J ~. -\J~. ~ Richard Rosecrance, The Rise of the Trading State: Commerce and Conquest in the Modern World ( New York: Basic Books, 1986), pp. 222-225.. m::© Robert Gilpin, The Political Economy of International Relations ( Princeton, N. J.: Princeton University Press, 1987 ) • p. 198.. ~ Kent E. Calder, "Japanese Foreign Economic Policy Formation: Explaining the Reactive State," World Politic, Vol. 40, No.4 ( July 1988 ) , pp.. 517-541; Kenneth B. Pye, ed., The Trade Crisis: How Will Japan Respond?, (Seattle: Society for Japanese Studies, 1987); Micheles Schmiegelow, ed., Japan's Response to Crisis and Change in the World Eoonamy, (New York: M. E. Shape, 1986).. lE~~$~it£:g;;}a\!iI_.

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(9) ~~~~~. ~~~. ~~~. 1. ~~~*~~. ~~~~~{l!;!~W. gr'~~:K~~~~~. 0. ~.J...j~~$§~~~lni~i¢~~tr. ) mW~J~$!!t-B*~ 1~~. 0. <Ii. *~~~~lI!~~iii-R.~-B~ ~ *~~~~m!:~~lI! ( issue. W~lni~i¢~~~~~~~tr~~~~mW~~m!:~mW~~~$!!t-B~~lI!~~~~~~.~~~~~~~~~~~m!:~~~. .~~~~.~o.~~I~~~~~S~H.~M~~~~~.~~ • • • ~W~ • •~~$!!t-B~~-~.· • • ·.~. .~.~~.J...j~'~~'~~.~'~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~lI!~~~~~~~~~~.~~~o~. 0. 0. [". 0. ~~ ~ ~~*.. ~~lI!~~~ ~ ~~+~~~~~S~ [" ~~.~~~1i±:: J (New International Economic Order ~.~~NIEO ) ~~mI <+~~~$m~lI! • [" ~!lH.~ J (Newly Industrializing Economies ~ ~~NIES)~ ~ 1,1tH:\~~f§.J...j*~~lI!~. ~mW~~~ 11~lf!~lI!~.~ta~~'\l!¥{ [" ~lI!~~ J ( issue cycle) ~.~. ~ ~lI!~~ J §:-*If!~~~~~lI!~~ f:mI (problem recognition)Nii1'~~lI!~'\l!¥{~~.lI! (policy issue) ( $!!tml• • DlW.J...j*) MW~~~Wtr'\l!¥{~~~~lI! .~~lf!~?;1:1 ( alternatives in the policy process) -.:!'W~~~Wtr~.~{l!;!~~~lf!~?;I:1 ( ~~?;I:1~~4a) (methods and estimation in the policy process) l.t';){$m(zC ( implementation ) ii1'~~?;1:1~.\1t~ ( evaluation ) {.zC~~?;I:1~~~~lI!. ~~~~~t-~~l!!!~~~ ( termination) ~ ~lI!~mI~~ ~ ~mW~~11~~~lI!~ [" ~lI!~~ J §:~*. 0. 0. [" ~lI!~~ J '\l!¥{:j(~~~ ~~ll~lI!W*~~~~~ ( ~~) ~lI! ( [" • • DlW J ) ~ 1E[~ ~ ~[j-<l!l~~~ [" ~lI!~~~ J ~N~~~lI!-• •DlMl J ~ :jnj~{$m(11~. ~~+~l!!!~~~~~~lI!$*~~~~~~~~~~lI!~["~lI!~~J~.~~o {n1!!~2~~mW~~~~lI!~mW~11~lf!. §:1lJ~~~~ ~ ~W.~~~~~~~ual~IlJ~~~. ~~mW~~lni~i¢tr~~~~~M~~~o I 1 ~lI!~~~-~~~~tr\. ~f:*lf!~lI!~~_~~*~.~f:~lI!~.~.\1t~o.~~~~~(~~)*~~:j(.\1t~.&~~.~~ • • ~~. ~~11~~11~~. 0. [" ~lI! J *~~f: {nH!~ ~ ~~~~%-! ~ ~-E:~~~.Ji!lt[~~~~*m= ~ ~~~{[[~~~.\1t~.& ~ ~~~lI!~.. {l!;!.~ • • ~~~.~o~Mlf!.&~-B~~~~~_.~.~~~.iii.~~~~~~:j(.&~~~~ • • ~~M~~~. :W®l. John. A. Vasquex and Richard W. Mansbach, "The Issue Cycle: Conceptualizing Long- term Global Political Change," International Organiza tion, Vol. 37, No.2 (Spring 1983 ) , pp. 257 --67. G. Brewer and P. Deleon, The Foundations of Policy Analysis ( Homewood: Dorsey, 1983) .. ~. ~. ~~f:~~.~~~1E[~~*I.~~~~~~~~~~~--~~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-E:~.~~-E:~~~ ~Wo. W~lni~i¢~~tr~~~m!:~["~lI!J(~~~lI!~~f:~~~) l.ta~~["*~.J~lI!°~.~.~["*~.J.

(10) L,. :tim. lion, Vol. 37, No.2 (Spring 1983 ) , pp. 257 -67.. M. • A. G. Brewer and P. Deleon, The Foundations of Policy Analysis ( Homewood: Dorsey, 1983 ) .. «. ••. ~~~~~~.)~~~~~. ••~.~ •• ) 1.~.~r*~.J~.o ••~.~r*~.J. ~~.~~.~~~~~A~l.~~~~~~~.~~~--~~*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~. ~mtl° ~~~~~~~~A~.~~r~~J(.~~. ~~~~~~~.~~~~~~~~~o~~r*~.J~~.~~~~.~.(~~~. .. .... ~~~~~~. ~~*~~~~~~~~~~~.~~.~.E(. ~~. ~1~~~gN~~~~~~2~~.~~~~~~r~~~~~J~~.~~*~~.~~~o ~~. ~.~~~.~~.~~~.~~~~.*~~~ ~~. •• •• ••. ~. •• ) ••. ~. ~~~~~.~*. ~~~~~~I~~~~~~~~o~~~.~l~~~~~g~~~~~~~wr*~.J~.o~~~~~~~.~~.. ... ~~~~~. .... ~.~~~~~r*~.JA.~~.~~~(. Eo~~~~~~.~.~~~~. ••. 0. ~.)~~o~ • • • ~~~~~m • • ~ • • .. ~*.~~~~~~~.~~~~.~r~.J. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.o~~~~~~~~.~~~.~~.~~~~~~~~~~~~. ••••. ~~~~.~ ~~~o.I. *~~~~. ••. •••• .... ~~~. ~~.~.~~~.~. ••. ~~~~~~~~~o~~~~~.~~~~~~~.~~~~~!.r~~.J. 0. .. ... ~~~. ~.~~~~~~.~~. .~N~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~r*~.J~~~~~~*~~*~~~~~.~.~~~~~*~~~ ~~~.(~.).~~r~~~~~J o~~~~~~~.~~~~~~~. 0. 1 ~~~ ~ ~~~~\Ht~~§I~ r ~~~~mR~ J ( ~~.~~§I~-R€~) ~ ~.~.*~ 0 ~ll!J.*~ ~ r ~.~. J ~ Steinbruner) ~~~ ~ ~$!~ r ~~.~~ J ~ @)~~ldE~~.~~)$$f~~. ~ ~.~Hjnr~. ~~.~o~.$!H.~.~~. ••••••. 0. ~~~~~. •••. ~. ~ll!J.~J;;:.~~ ~ ~l!l. •• ~.~~.~~~.~*)~~~~~~. r*~.J~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~l. ~~~E~~. ••. • •. ~ll!Je:~~I~~~~~.~~*,~~~~~~.. A~~. 0. ••. ~~~~~~r~~~~J o~~~*~.~$~~~~~~~~~~~~~.~~m~~~~. ~~~~~~.~.~J;;:~~~. ~~~.o.~~~~~I.~. ••. .~ ~ ~~~.:al~.ti (J.. ~. •• ••. ~~~~.l~~~* ~E~ A. ••~~~~~r~~~~~J. ~~. 0. ~~~1~~ 1 ~~~.. 1. ~~*~.(~* ~'~ • • -:ile~. ~~~~~~~~~~~~*,~.~~~~~*~~~ ~. J. Rosenau, "Before Cooperation: ,Hegemons, Regimes and Habit Driven Actors in World Politics," International Organization, Vol. 40, No.4 ( Autumn 1986 ) , pp. 849-94; J. Steinbruner, The Cybernetic Theory of Decision ( Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1974 ) . fiU~~$~f!i;~iIrI~.~.

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