二十一世紀初的中俄戰略關係分析

全文

(1)=+-iliEW~~~.@H.~~. M. rtedSta. 1 Puska. lStitute.. =:-J--&m*B ~ tJ(J a:p fa• • il~ 1ttJT. V"ar Ga. T. m,and. 71<-. •. ( iIlI:lLij{ta*.iIlI~III1¥Iiff~,*,'C.' m=liff~ffi/illJIiff~i'l). •. ¥. t*,~~~~~~~~~4~~~.T~~OO-~~~+~a~x~ #~~rt~~~~*~~~~J ,~t~ffl~~k~~~~~1k_a~6". ••. ••• ••. _~M~o. •••. ~~ -.±.~.*, ~.~~~ ~a o~~. t~~.a~ ••• ~*,M~Ao.~~M~~&~r~M."~.~"~ ~.~~~J~.~M~'1~~~.L'~~~~~*M~o. lI.ali] : ~ ~;fIJji. " j~*_~. "jf.#!i!tJ'f- " _~~~ " 1t'-:;• *. ...u,... -. *. .D:.t1t~. " *-~.. *. --l. a.. .. Fl'j. =+meAO~ft*ftO~ftW·g.~~*~~~*~M.~·.~g~·. •. • ~-".~m8·~&.~ma.-~~~*~~.#~~~· •• ~+~~~* .~~fa*. · IH~fhti1tAjtlll*~~ftQ). ftO~ftWmff.mf.U"ft;. 0. · ~.OOgfJT. ~~~~~Z~·~~~~~*~G~~~~~ffi~n~~m.~~o§~*~fa*. jU=OO. rg.. 11 .# J. tElI~lilH~mf.U...t.#Ul!fJT~-m~fj~mf.U. ~Uffillf~ r llli*~mff. J. , ~+~* ' ~~1J.'Ht;~M · rg . 11.flf: J 1l ' ~~ti:fl3(~A. fl~~~~ • • +~ 0. ~. (APostPost-Cold War World ) ® *~ll~~fkF:f"~* 0. ~~~-~~~~M'~-.~m~~~~~~~~o-~~~~~~1J.~~~~. ~'*~ll~~~m-*~.~~·M*~~~~~*ff~~-M~G~~'~~§. ttQ). ~. ••.. r~II~I;J<.l&fill*T~ .1!!:~fi'8:~. Jg "1l*fI1::t:•• J • • lIit~ (~t)jO '=OOOiF ml!BlIJI • http://www.mgyj.com/american_studies/2000/fourth/fourth01.htm. tt® Richard N. Haass, • Defining U.S. Foreign Policy in a Post-Post-Cold War World: http://www. state.gov I sl pi rem/9632.htm..

(2) 1L ~ It 7C l' t1!Hlll¥J!It ~!J! *I r9 . 11 $ ftJ: J 1& • ~ ~ :ff ta J.!I! J'iJ f§lHtlj fJ I¥J ~M':ff&~•• 1'·~~M*I~re.~~.T~.ff·R~.b~~.~.T~§ ~~o§M~~B~~~_~~.!It~·~~~~~~.~.·~~R~~~m~ •. ~m ~ jiB!. •. 0. ~E~ •• '®ft~.~~~~~.~.I¥J!It~E'o. i. ~ •• ~ •• A:ff-hAh~.OO,~rM •• ~'~H**J~mu.~mili. ff.~1. 1¥J~&®o*.~~a~~~~H.'~~~:ff~~!It~.~~~~~~~~l¥Jr~$ 1f j ftl1tf1t:JJ • fttffiiIflttT ~Hl!JI¥JItQti!11tf r jdJtIif j (The Grand Chessboard) @. f.!:l:li!'. OOf.j=+t!UahO~~~~IIft-Jm*&~.I¥J~~*!It~ (Grand Strategy) ~~@. fi£. 0. ,. ~~I. I. 0. ~~=tf Sherman Garnett ~~~.!It~lUIf~l¥J~ft:li!.~+~*fUlittJgt£I¥J;}~. ~~-®o~.ft~.~~~~-@a.I¥J.RMW-@~~I¥J~~~~~M~m.. ~~:. el¥J*~,~e~ •• ~~®o*!It.M~*M~~ •••• ~~I¥J=~-~.o~. 1. •. •. I¥J~:. IUI.l¥Jft~~M.~A •• *~M:ff.*~I¥J~~~.'.bffili.~@o ~~*~*=tf~~~~f.j~IUI.£~~:Ii!~~~~Mm@~~I¥JU.®o~~~. ~~*I¥Jf.j~~.~ ••• *M~~*U~:L-~.(~M~'&*) ;~m.~. (&* ' &M) ; 3. -i,*~. (&M*1t-~~). ; 4.~1L~£. (f.j~M~m.;}~) ®. ;. (~). r ~.II~UIII:6t~'@d'P.f-J. J. : (-) M~ ; (=) ~~I¥J =+t!!JahO~~}:,HI~I¥J~.lUIf~jlim ; (~) ~~~)E (Ii) Mifil. ;. ~. (. 0. *Jt£~f,t1'7U~~OO*5HJT=+-t!!JafJHt''J~.!It~Uf~ ~~flJiiit.;}3t~~. 41:im. 0. $IHt. ~*~ f~. 0. (. *. ltt® 3\l1J'ZJ' j!:ltB~'1<:trtJ~it.5 j! r itl*lm!* ' Imll** j 'B/J\Zf:ltDl ( M=.4) (~tJi!:: A~l!tl\&:ft • -tl.tl.3:!f) .J{::::tI.--::::tl.1i.0 ltt@ ~'*J Zbigniew Brzezinski, The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and its Geostrategic Imperatives 0. (New York: Basic Books, 1997). ~®. rn~~~~~~~~~$~trtJ~.#~x~~~·~~~*nffH~~~.WM~~~~trtJ~BL~§. 'il~~. fJt~~. i1J~l. (. ft.\i1!!it*~Iila'FfIlJ::t~ ~~tUI5t.k~lIl11T. • .m!llIliUiJ!l!I~~~~~t.k~l!t~ (Barry R. Posen) ftl~lIl1i.~!!fH~~~* <Andrew L. Ross) trtJ.'" • i(1ila1ll~trtJ*~~ (Grand Strategy) ::t~::tJ!~ • iTJI1. Zr~'~. :V:::t.' (Neo-Isolationism)' • ~~tEtil!l' (Selective Engagement)' "t'tW~~" (Cooperative "fI~::t.· (Primacy) L1!lf!1i ° ~'*J Barry R. Posen and Andrew L. Ross, • Competing. Security) :&. Visions for U.S. Grand Strategy.' International Security, vol. 21. no. 3. Winter 1996/1997, pp. 5- 53.. ltt® Sherman Garnett, • Challenges of Sino-Russian Strategic Partnership.· The Washington Quarterly, Autumn 2001, p. 41; Sherman Garnett, "Slow Dance: The Evolution of Sino Russian Relations: Harvard International Review, Winter 1996-1997, p. 29. ~®. ~.. II1~M. I¥JHi :/ig1iXi ( ~l¥Jf. Ariel Cohen, • The Russia-China Friendship and Cooperation Treaty: A Strategic Shift in Eurasia?" The Heritage Foundation Bac/{grounder, July 18.2001, http://www.heritage.org/Research/Russi. aandEurasia/BG 1459.cfm.. ltt@ Kenneth N. Waltz, "The Emerging Structure of International Politics: International Security. vol. 18, no. 2, Fa111993, pp. 44 -79; Kenneth N. Waltz, "Structural Realism after the Cold War,· International Security, vol. 25. no. 1, Summer 2000, pp. 5-41.. ltt® ~/J'B))' Jta.&Jtlla ( xlii : xlliA~I:I:l)'j:ft • -tl.:h}\:!f) • J{::::1i.O -::::1i.- • ltt® fIlJimltt'J{::::1i.O--=:"''''o. ltt(.

(3) -+-m~W~~.~~A.~fi. §U1I1¥J. Trf1§. ..::. .. tf. t!L1l1l. LE'Mft r:W8 )<1)0 @,~. rf-~" lQ1~Ui ~. 0rf1. *. ~. ~ IiI ~~U ~ It 11' 3t~~. •• 'Mml¥J.*o~~ ••• ,~ ~&~.~ ••• ~.~ •• ~~~~.~~wm~o •• ~.~~I¥J.*ft~~~, ffi~ffMM~m~· •• ·m~~.~~~ff.I¥JWb •• ~~m-.~M*off. ~~H.l¥Jm~.~ ••IW.' ••- •• R~.~~ *I¥J•• ~~.~ .0~.~a~~~.I¥J· •• I¥J'ff.-M~~m.~ft~al¥J~.'rf1~~~. ~.~~-~~m~~~.ili·~fi&~~~. ••••. m:~~~M!l3..~~~.flJa@. 0. •••~~~~I¥J~M'Mmrf1~*~§.l¥Jm.~a~ •• m~AM~OO: 1.±%m;~~.~~~m;al!.~ft~~~~~b •• mWrf1~;~m •• ~ rf1~. 1¥J~~~~;&~m~~~.~I¥J.~~.;a.A~~m~I¥J.~;~~~~ml¥J. p;l:l:l! ij~u! ) @. .:iiI•• ;8.•. *ilfi!lB~~~$.ml¥Jml7lri:&t!@. 0. rf1~I¥J~.~~~fi'rf1~~~~~I¥J.*.~~r:. (1) ~m.*~rl'l'I¥JHf*,@. 0. 0. li5tmiffi"~~.#.~tiftl¥JilOOB. ' f¥fiIrf1;1:l:l¥Jttfl. P~I¥J. ~.'~~iffi"~~~,m~~~~~,~ft~.~~~'Wb.~m~~~~~I¥J~. J1i~. .*~H~'m~.M·~~m·~*~.=~·~~.~I¥J.M.~I¥J~BaffH. f*. lNitt •. 0. OOi:&••• a&~I¥JH.o.~~ •• a~ •• ~~~~mo.~·a.· •• Z~~~~·~ •• I¥J~tt'.~~~.7rf1~ •• a~.~a~BH.;a~~_ ~~~aW~~°rf1~~~~.~~M.~~~'~I!.~ft~.~~I¥J~~~~Bo. ~11ltiyes. ..t1.lH'1 II*~H«. "fliJll. erative. peting 5-53. rterly.. ODS.. M~~.*~_~~~~_~ttl¥J.ilim.,m~~~~~~. ~.~. •• ~,x~m§~H. •• ~~~'.~~·$~·~*~§·$.~~.~7~~~~~M.~®o. oo~~~.rMMrf1;1:l:J&r. rf1-~J 0rf1~I¥J~~~~~.*~.~~~.. •• ~~Jl¥Jm~.m~mWI¥J~.,~.~ft~.~~~ •• ~~*~#m ~~~I¥JWb'~~'~~fl~.~el¥J~~~7rf1;1:l:n§~~~ •• ¥~.~~m I¥JH.o~~li5t'rf1;1:l:I¥J~~~~.m~~~.~~m~~.I¥JH •• ,.re~~~ ~.r. ~:&J<:~ • • mtlN5>. 0. •• ~m~~~.'M!rem~~~~.".$ ••iliX#'.~ ~1¥J.~m •• °rf1;1:l:~~~~~~~~.ftM.~*I¥JA~M~~Wl¥Jr$ •• ~J W~.~~I¥J$. ,sia?" Russi. ;urity,. "'ar, •. tt@. fIIl.iiI·. ~@. *~$'. (;1C$ : ;1C$A~lliNitt ' -tLtLt\4') • 'lIltIlfH' =OOO4'tLFl=+=B • ~t;Ni' http://www.snweb. com/gb/gnd/2000/0922/g0922001.htm. tt@ r«1f:¥' =+-1!uc~:lt1f.~ • • ( ~t:ij{ : l¥<f$lliNitt ' =00-4') 'Ji{ -t;= • tt@ ,*,:~H.lH\!lI!li!1AlIIlf~TiJf~m· 1I111• • IIlli:~~."fi!i 2001/2002 ( ~tjjt' : l¥<f$lliNitt • - 00 =4') , Jt=t\tL°. tt@ r«1f:¥' ·tVJ~ 'If . Jt -t;.= °. ~:ltIiilil.ilHI~HIi. rll!l*fU~i&~7U,l? J.

(4) ~~~~*r~M~~J 'OO~~~~B'~OOm~ r~~~~J~.~,. •• ~*~m~~~~*~~~~~.a~'.MT~~H~. ~~~~~.tt~.~tt,. ~~~~~~~~~~~.mft°. ~~:m:Jl!~:ilHfHi~Jt7J~**~TfJT~~*3tftf ,*~ft;. , ~~:mfBft;. 0. ~~~~~~~o~ft~~~. ' ~~~~~~*~.fI:; , ~3tH~ ,. -'*5iljfJT3tftf.$~n~**HfHifir:llT~*-m~ilID. ~~.~~~~~~~~§~~. 0. •• o~~~~.~~m*§~ •• ~.~~. ~.~:ll~~~~~.~o~q,~~~.~m. ••• '~~m~X&~*~.$-.. #.~~~ • • ,~~~m~T~~~~~~.o~.*'~~~.~~A~.~~ ~~. •• W~liMn.m •• ~~AA~~.H.®o OO.R~.*~~~ao •• ~~~~.~.d'm.~~r~~~aJ~~. ~~*m~Jl!~~~M~:X-,ti~.fB~~'Am~~~~a.fi~~oX-'. ~.~~~ao. 'M~~~~ao~r~~~aJ~~.~*m'~Jl!~~.~. a ' il&tEiflJa ' .$~~flJa ' :f±flflJa~ , OO.*fll£[rdj~~.fIJa ' .*lHm~ •• ~a~~~r~~~~J~:m:~@o (7) ~HU~~ • • ~f1~~~ ~. 0. mmj;).$~*~~~~Flli]j1:r~.lIJlIT~*,J~iI&m. •• '~fi~:ll§~~~~~~iI&m·. ~M. ' flra: • •. ,~~~:(¥~tlft~®. ~~m~~~~~. •••~f1ti:ll~mR. 0. rmrm ~J. itlll1 Zra'f RI~~. ~M~. *.~. ;f. .~~. i&~t.I. fill>. <. r'If !t*~. ~P'1!J.. Jl!~. .~(. .1l9i3. ntt ~)A+.ft~.~*~tiH~·~M**H.~.~o~nH.li+~.*~ ~T-~~~ •• ~~N:liO.ft~~fi~H~-r~J ;Ao.ft~~fi~H~-. r ~ J ; to.ft~~fi~HfHi- r MJ @; ;\O.ftiWM~fi~~:iliI&taIllH*,~ r W ~fifiJ ' rfifi~~J@oM~.mH~-.ftAO.ft~M~~MM.'~.M mHf*'~!ftlIil~~m~ ~ fiM~M.~~ft -11;\11 .liFJ j(; E.:\~::k (Mikhail Gorbachev) ~rR~~~q 'fflIlj'~f.!\\l. r ~.~* ' mlfiJ** J 'M~HfHi~~~ r ~ .~J.o.~'M~ft~~~~li~.M~~~~'.M~ •• ~~~~~.oM 0. It@> ~'OOlIt'Ji--I::;l1!lo It® fi'il'OOI1' Ji--I::;I1!l---I::;li lIt@ lIt®. 0. ~'OOlIt'Ji--I::;lio. ~'OOlIto. lit®! fiia' MIfIIHtlllfi.iE,*,it ( 1979-1989) lIt@ at@. ~'OOlIt·. ~ilJat·. Ji=J\-liJ\ Ji-=---li=;. a~~~. ••~~~~~.·BIl~~ • • :. (.~t;: =~.Jai. .. ~Iv\+-~). . Ji. -=-==. 0. 0. BIl/j\Zfi:tE-.t1.J\.t1.~liJ=l+1\8:tE~tJi{*Jil.fi"41iiifi.~:tjff;IIl:t,*· r~~A~~~.m~fiH.~~~~~.oa • • ~fflm. M.*• •lfIfi• • • a.mE.fu.Ja~'BIlx • • : r.~ ••. ~~g~J oJil.r~.~*. fllllI** J • IIIj\2JSXil ( M:::.) (~tJi{: A~m~tl· -.t1..t1.:::~) . Ji=.t1.-- =.t1.li •. J. ft.

(5) =+-~~m~~~~~~.9~. E9='~B9. ~~r"H* ~Jtft. '. U~l@pg. ~m-ti ~m-r)1@. tJ. ~:tm. :tt=, i~~flJ ~lHiliB9 lJEi&~ c~ffiIi. ~. I@fUlf*JEm-ft ' f.HBlJltB9~~il~ , ~~ 7fJftiB9I3\,® 0 9='i*~:n~~ r ~~0 J ,:±:~pg~~Or@: 1. 1£fDqs:~llt1i~@J~IJB9~~...t~MJilijI@&JiIij.fUlf* 02. 9=' i*fUI~B9~.,~~tiffW.~I@'~~ •• ~~B9~~o3.B~fDqs:~~m~JilijI@ ~~B9-W.~'Ii~~m~b~~~bffi •• o~~~:tm~B9 ••b •• ~~R~ ~. ~~~fUI~ffi~~B9~~*qs:05.i*~~~~~.~~~~'~$~i*.1£-OO~m B9~~pg%~~Wo~fUI~~W~~,~m~9='i*~W.~B9ffl~'~&I@~~B9~. *.~.~~'B~qs:5 •• 'Ii.Ii~'~~m~.@JiIij~B9~W~~o. , 9='1@*M!~~7 r "~.f4 J '@:nI@~ti9='~ .mE~f)!fililJ. 0 j(;E3~7c1£l@pg.BB9 r ~1J J (perestroika) fD r~:D:lI: J (glanost) :tE-:fLJ\:fL1f:9='i*fUlf*JEm-ft~~. i&.wm~~@'~...t.i*B9~mfUl~'~~9='i*~:nti~M.-~B9fU1~M~~B9. mlJ.to (=) :fL01f:tt~:nilffIJ!fft~.f'Ff$f*fUlf* 01£i*~mfllf[II@~3fi~*t!ftB9~~ r'9='•• ~i&~~~B9-.tt~Mm~~'X:tt~1£:tm~!fft~~~:nOO-.tt~D ~.@°9='.fUI~B9~M~.mM~.9='~~gti.l@fUI~B9-00~~~.o~~. B9~J.t.'9='~~~-OO1£I@~...t~B~nbB9.mM~.g~.I@B9.~i&~B9~ ~b.o.~...t'JE~.I@~9='.Jilijl@fUI~mW®*®o~~§*M!(~rn~):tm~ !fft~. (geostrategy). I¥JIllIPKrm s@ , .OO~ r 9='~ •• ~ J @'. ~.. B~:n~-:fL:fL". 1f:~~+tB1£.~~~r.B~~~~~~~sJ '~JE~~r.B~~~~m~. ita. :n~ J. ,~ • • f)J1ii1£§:l.i:j:i!!~@. 1£~§*M!B9@OO'. '1f:*~ ~fUlf*. r~t~J ~-:fL:fL~1f:+=~-BJEA~W7~ •• MB9~. \1ikhail. •• Aft~~.~~.~~(-h~h.+~--hAh.+~) (~m:~m*~m~ 'l'{=li/\ E@ Aft8.'-:tt.A:tt.~li~+AB,m-~;$~$*~~~~ •• ' r$~.~0~J ,+~*~* ••%c•• (~) (~m:A~m~tl,-:tt.:tt.3~) 'Rli-=-li-~o. rJE. ti@ Richard Nixon, 1999 Victory Without War (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1988), pp. 39 - 40. r i:&. r f!1. :~. ~fljiIij .~. f*. 0. E@. 0. 0. ~~Wo rM~Jm~~.~~m~~0M~~~~'~~1-~~~~~~~~,ft~~.~~~~~ Iit~im~.$lJ~~*~W.\lir1lll. 0. H@ Uao Xin, • New Relations Between China and Russia,· Beijing Review, December 22 - 28, 1997, pp.7-8.. ti®. E@. ~!3~.1:.' jtUlfSl;aPl.~~3l (~tg. : ~tmm~tl,. -:tt.:tt./\~). 'R311Jl=. 0. Zbigniew Brzezinski, • A Geostrategy for Eurasia,· Foreign AIfarirs, vol. 76, no.. 5,. Sep. /Oct.. 1997, pp. 50- 64. E~. William H. Overholt, The Rise of China: How Economic Reform is Creating a New Superpower (New York: W. W. Norton & Co, Inc., 1996); Richard Bernstein and Ross H. Munro, The Coming. iIIfiJJIHi. *~*,. -:tt.:tt.I1Jl~). ~J~~~~~m~~m,~~~~~m~*$~~$*~~~~'.~~~n~~0~~$~~~.. jiIij. 1II.1:r.t·. E~~.1:.'. tl '. ConDict with China (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, Inc., 1997).. H® . ~1Ii.'. r~~f*JIII'Ji'lt/{;,~~B*~$:Jt~~mJ. /\+/\~-~. 'l'{---li. 0. '~a~BPliJf~ (i;~t). ,m3+/\~m-IOl' ~iI!l.

(6) ~,~~~~~~~~n~n~$*~~~.*~~.~~~a~~~~~~~~o. n~. ~n~*[t111tJ~tf0~£~. ~1. , ~~~f0~**fiA~~~~~m;9JI;!Zpg , ~#JtRwr~1f[ $JiiU~' n;l:~iIilJ:tE:af~*ZJS ~tf0~*.[t111-fjHfj , §t.t!lfUfflfJU!f1: r~&:tt® #Jt~~~ , ~tf0*.~7'G~af(~XUt~{i~~~~~i&7i1ftl1f[$~lIItHfj~ , JiiXf4'#Jt&wr ~3i:~ ; ~ltfflt*. ' itf96#Jt~~~lt:tE$*~~iI~ff~~fftftl~. ; lt~ , ~t 0. 0. f0~~~~$~~*.,tt~#Jt&wr*~~~~~m~~@o&.~#JtRwr~~&:tt'. ~tf0*.~m~]E*1Bim~ *~.1*1J(]A~tf0. 0. ~:±~~~~. ,. $*~~*. '. ~~'.!ifflJ. '. 7B£1II&~1l.. , :tE3i:~!it!i!~m1Slr ' d~~n1f[$~itftl§3 -fi1f[$*~#Jt~zoo~~.,~a~~#3i:~ • • ~mo~~.~~~3i:~.M~ 1f[$ZJS.*.''8f)• • • T~#~.~~~@o #Jt&wr~fjll+7t%Hl ' '8-niIDtt~tf0~*.[tI1J~~&:tt ; §3-niIDJiJlJt.J1Jfll m1ill!1J(]~I1~e~1f[$ftlif!m-efl:;j1U~. #Jt&wr~~ , ~*~tf0*. ' ~:tEI1~e 0. '8f)~tHJfJ!i~. /\11. ati~. ~$.. JlP r .ilfil. *im. .rr. ~*. 0. ~*pgtdHl~~1f[$~MWzm.. #JtRwrW~tf0~n:tE!ltro'.1:~~t403~IU.r. ~m. o~!It'.~$#Jt~.tt#Jt&wr.$~.MntiM~f0*.~+7t~~~®o~~. ~ftl. 0. $#Jt~~~!It~~~~'~n~.3i:~~.~*ott$~*~*~'~~*m.~~. m~:. 3i:~f~n'~. IIAj. , tt#Jt&wr*~JW:±J!~~~tf0~*. '. ~~iif.Y~~~~i&7i1lftt~M*fi~*. §t.t~r~.~'.~-.J o~~ttm~~~:±~~r¥~m~J $#Jt~n~{J\. r lftt~~it J. (~~w)~~~,. (strategic convergence) uem~~~~ ~~fl:;mii®. 0. $#Jtiif.Y~:tE-ftft~~~~~~lftt~~~~#~~zM,~ftif!~fi~~~.1iII!. $fiIf'Fov :. f~~J. m=:i ~.. Ti&t. ~-~~(-ftft-~~--ftft=~~) :a~~e'$#Jt~~ZJS.~~]E~ ~~~H~o-ftft-~+=~-. B,#JtRwr~~~~a~~e~~7'G~I1~~. ~~t. ~*o+=~-+tB'$~~tt~if! • • ~*~m$i&~~~~~#Jt,~n:tE~wr. iX*,,*. ft•• r • • e~J. ,~~~n~~~.,]E~~~nH~~£*~~~o~.$n. ~~1l. .~~.#Jt&wr~~i&~ • • Ma~:tE~it~3i:~.~.mo:tEr • • eJ!J$#Jt~. ftlZJS~. IIlIr tt® For the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs's statements, see FBIS, Ecuram, June 26, 1996, p. 23, tt@. from ITSR·TASS, June 25, 1996. IIJ~.· ,*.:&.11:' rji~~~JIl.-Jt!!*li&tt1WJt8J]~11j!(J'!f:!lHHIT J. '.lIIif~ (~~Ji(). ,-Jt.Jt.. tt@ Bruce Russett and Allan C. Starn, • Courting Disaster: An Expanded NATO vs.Russia and China: Political Science Quarterlly, vol. 113, no. 3, 1998, pp. 361- 382.. tt® Stephen Blank, • Which Way for Sino-Russian Relations?' ORBIS, vol. 42, no. 3, Summer 1998,. ttl$> tt®. pp. 345-360; .f3~:EIi· mliJlff' ~=-1iO-=-1i-· Michael Mastanduno, • Preserving the Unipolar Moment,· International Security, vol. 21, no. 4, Spring 1997, pp. 49-88. Rajan Menon, op. cit., pp. 101-125... ttov. ~i!.f3~:EIi'. tt~. .~W, r.~~~~~~~~a~J '~B~if~'m=-+1i~m+=m·~mA+1i~+=~'~=O·. mliJlli,. ~=-[q*-=-[qt. 0.

(7) @~. 0~-m·8~~¥~~¥¥-·.8~Y. @~. 0~-m·8¥~¥~~¥¥-·.8~Y. o. 'lfmtli· flHl:&im • 1i!!~~±~li . (liib.t:li . • ~=F~tlilt'!l'fUtliH:tUif : mnm¥i!I'lfmtli. 00. mf~l¥i!I ! ~lJ![gj. 0~~·-m'8¥+~=+~=¥¥-·.8~Y. ®~. ®~. 'y 'ou. 'S66t. ~~·Me~li·B~.~·M=.~~±·~~±·~~±L~~o@r. ••M~. .'eu!. ~~~~J~~' r~.e~~~~~.R~~~~~±~H~~~~JLil~~~ 6'~W~~*.~o~*~~~~-. •••• H~~~,~m-+-~OO?~'~. ~~~~r~.e~~~J~=+~=¥¥-~~~.'$mr~.e~~~J ~?&±~}HIl.. 0. o~m~m~w' •• ~~~~~~~~~M~ . W*~:riW~nl1~~;rt1~~1li. *}HMen!li~B~.~~~m. ~~~~M·~~~±m'~~~±~.H~~W~Il.o~~~~.H~~W~~ ~m-+=~OO~W.~6o@r~.e.~~J~.H**M~~HL~~. •• ~. _~¥~~¥¥-o~~~~r.H~~~~~. .~t:. ~~ ~lt;J ~W. ~~m-+=~ooJW~~~: (~~~¥¥¥--~¥~~¥¥-)~~~.. ~~. m~~'~B~~~~~n'B. ~.iilliOO~~~}H~~tJM~. oiW~~~IJ!~l'iI!L , :k})'c~~+-~MefHJ~~m:&~U41li~iri . ,,»I •• ~~~~~.m.~~~~e~~~.. H.L~~m~6·~W~~*.~o®. o®. *~F,. n.MM~~±~.~~W~.Ili_ •• ~'~.~ ••iil~~~V~~~e~y~. ,~. ~±!4~mq~~.q~&~~~W~~±·~~~~~~~~~!iilli~~~.. ·. ~m.!.H~Me~liIliB~.~iil~~~~;rt1~~~. •• ~6·.~B~tJ.. li~~:~.~~r~.e~J o®r~.e~~iW~.HlimU~~B~Ili~Ili¥. ~y.~. J L~~~.~~. [NlJWrrJ~~. 0. *}n~~Men!li~B~.~tJ~}Hm~. ~.,~¥~~~~*~~m~: (~¥~~¥¥--@~=¥¥-)~~=. o.nB~.~iil~:riW~~~W·~~~~~~~~~. ±~. .. ~~o. ~. .~1I 2Ql:~nl. .~~. r~.~~.».~~ ••• ~~~q •••• limm*~~~~J~ ••• m~),C~~~&*.~~~~~*~. .~iJ. ~.W·~.M~~~~~~»ig~~~~~~.~6·*~Y~.m~r~.M~. g~a. ¥¥-~~¥V¥-~ •• ~ •• ~.o •• *~y.~~~.~~.· ••LY. t.filJW•• ~.D.jj(tt;~e~oq~&*m~ (lI1s:11<l!.s!-l0g) ¥~m~••~B~M'.*jj( • ~~·B ~~-~=¥¥-~,.~~.-o®.:&·~ •• m~*~~u*. ~~J~~'. ·~.~~~Y~~~~~~*~·~.! '-.!~~. •• ~.H~~~~~ro,~~~~~r~~~.~~J~~~.~~. ~~n~ •• ~~~_¥¥_~r~~e~~~J~~~.~¥~~¥~@~~¥V ¥-'iW~~.H~~~r~~~;rt1~~~J.~~ •. =.:~.jj(»~~.jj( ••• m~~L~~•• ~. tt;Me.~,~~m~~~~~~B•• ~~~'-.:. ~r,*. .. ~~, ~B. o@~;. .~~ o~i1l.

(8) ~~®~~~~~~;£*m~T~~~~®~W~.'~OO~~~~~~M.~® ~l1U~~T£~. 0. IT.~~-ftftli~liAftB~~.~~.MM.fi®~~@M~~~~li+.. ~~~'~~**~~m~.~o~m~~.~mM~~~~~*~~ll.~®~# ~~,.-~ •• ~~~~®*.@o~A*.~~·~~ •• Tr~~~~~.J. ~-*~~~. ••. '.-~.~T~~® •• tt~~~~o. m~~~(-ftft~~~A) :~~~llr~~.~~#~~J o~~.Aliffi. .m·mff~~~®.~~~·~OO~R& •• ~~o-ftft~~~A=+~B~= +~B·~m~.~m=*~~~~*~·~~ •• ®r~~~~.~J@'.~~ mW:~~~~.~'~~.$m~-ftft=~+=A+AB •• ®r~~~.A~ ~~~~~mM~nffili~.£~®~~.~J~-ftft~~ftA~B •• ®r~~. J I1TfUI~®&lJtD.iUfJJ ~~~ •• M&M~m·&m.m® •••M'.~~~.~AZ~~.~·. .*JtligflJ.rmJ;l:f[~1J~.~~ •• ' ~~~~Jlt~~~JR~.Mf4~ll~~i&}f;fr~'~ •• ~~;~~~~~~~.~~~'~~.~'~~.~~_~i&~ffi ••~'. ~~ •• ~,~**~eRm.~~m;~~.ffili~ •• ~~~~~.~~~o~ ~*.~oo.$~.~mM$m~A~~.~~~•• ;~~~~.~ •••• b~ 1J1J~jtU~~~~~lI~~.~~~ , ~.~Jlt§~f§lird:l~I1T:f[:f[~~~.fi •• ~ •• o•• ~'~~R.G:f[b •• '~m~~_~ffi~~.~liM~~~.~·. -~.*~~R~~ •• ~~o.$~·~~~~ ••• -~~R~~.~Z~~& M.m~~~~~tt'~ •• li~~£~~.~~~~.~~~ •• '.-~~~. ~~.~. 0. ~~~,re~~~w~~~~-~~~~~'~.~.~~W@o. ~~~~.l'F~#~f~;1!.T~U~~.iIi!J*.~:.If'F@). : 1.. ~~~IIf1~:7ttHi. ; 2. ~.ll~~.J!l!~jt* · ti~:$}1J!J~~~1t~& *BB-*;&~~~~R~._*BB•• '~~~_._.fi*BB•• ;~~ll~~ .~AZ~~.M •• ·~.*~O._••• ~ll~oJlt~'-ftft~~~A~~ ~:$}1J~~.Mf4~~~JR&*BB-*. ~~fI~~mM'~~~M~(~~)~~~'smsM(K~~~~)~~. • tas~M:ll! (Tajikis~) ~~~.liM~~:7t1t~5t • • T r ~~~~:tJl_~1J1l ~. $ • • 1~ f:E ~ • ~ J (Corrfidence-buiding in the Military Field in the Border ~. ~a).o.~.~·~~R.~~:tJl_.~.$b.li~.~;~~~.fifi. ••••• ~•• ·~~~*~;ffili~.~:tJll00~m~._. ~.~.$m~.R;.Jlt~m.~.A •• ;mW.~ •• m~;~~~~~:tJl_ ~~. ••••. ••. ;~. n@. Aft8.·-nnli~li~nB·m-~o. n~. Aft8.·-nn~~~~=+~B·m-~o. itt@ liiJi!lIn o itt® JIl~' rtflI!U!tlSt{£f'FBf*lIIlfiTi(J(jiiiH!tJ ·11....... tt@. Aft8.·-nn~~~~=+1::;B'm-~o. (~~Ji{) • -nn1::;~n-+~'. JiliO-li- o. #1. $~. J1fj. fll. *' _It. ~I. ~m. ff3'. ~~. ~:Jj. ~fU. ~tE. ;1!r ~~. *0. ~II. iiU ~~. flUt: ~~!. ¥~: !B (I ~Jf.

(9) '~-&'B+=~~~-OO-'.~~.' r~~±*~~~~J. ltli!lf~~ ij I~'. .-~. @~. 0~. "WW9SL6EZ! AO N/ZOOZ!~s~ r WHItl~~M*'rT@'q1U~ J • :if!£il?. ®l~. @~[gI. •. -U!IP/Ot'StZ"OEnOZ! /:dUl! • (u:)"Ulo:)"t!ull!:». "wtl!'LtSOftZ/:)~aIZOOZ!~s~U!l!:)/Oft"SftZ'OEI'ZOZ!. /:dUl! • (u:)'wo:)'t!uIl!:». It&!lf~~ ij I~'. r ~i.f!llt.~.~iI.~ i.fM~ • • ii..L~ J. ••. '!£lItiI. @~. .-mo~~ •• ~~~.H~.~.H~~.~~·.~?.r~.**'B~ ~~Jm{~.U~B~.~.~) o•••• *~B{~.U~B~.~.~). ~o.~B~~~~~.~~~B~ ••• HU~~~.~,~~o.~LY.** {~.U~B~.~.~).~W~~~~·.~=+~OOO-o~~U~~~•• •• ~~~.M~~.W~~~.~)~{~0~~~.W~~~~~~. ~(~~. ~) ,.m~~~OO~~{lf8~~~~B~.N~H~~U~~H.~~~~~~~ y~~) ~ (. ~l~nrU~~H.~II~~~Y~~) W~. · :ltt~~:m:OOffil+Lil~. B~~·*m~~L.ijo~H.~~~¥~~~~~.*'*M~.*:~¥~~ ~~~¥¥~~~*~.'L.~~~H.·~~~-OO=~~~~OOO=o* ~.~.HU~~~~~~~~$m~N'~.M~~~W'~.~.~L~~~~ Do~~y. ••• ,~.~q6~~.~~~.H.~·~~~~H.~.L. o®lr~~.~'~~.~'. ~'~.~~M~~oM.~~~ra~L.J~VL~W'. • • J~. •• ~~~'~.~~. M,~ • • m~~~~~~*~'~~~W.~~~~*~.~~M~L.o~~. ~~~~~~ti'~~.II~~H •• ~ •• Mm'.~~~~WH •••• m~~ '~~.'~9~~~m~~,~~~.~~m~~~~o~ •.••. ~~.~~ •• ~~~~WH.~~~~~~~~-+=MOOo0U~~¥~~~~ ~L.,q. .~~~·~~.~~~~~~~%,q~~~~~~~V~~~.H.~'. rm~. .MJ~YM~M~~*.HU~~m~~.~'lf8*.~~.~~o.~.~~* ·~~~~~B.L#5Wm~.H.~,~q6~~~Y. •• ~~.~~mow.. ~.OO-LY.~¥fIi~~~II' ~Hi~!ll!L~~~~:If.~~~~~~W. •• · *. m.~=~~L~o@~~~r~~J~r~¥J~-m~w·.~r.~.JLID. •• :m:W~~~~~¥~~~OO~L~~'~.~.~~MOO~~~.~~¥fIi~~ ~.~W. •• L~~OO~·~~~.~OO~{~~.~~~U~~B.)~{~*.. mU~WB.)' {~.~~.IIU~W mfill~~Y. •• )L~~~¥~~$~~.L.og#. • ~ • • m.~i84 (Ulltld.J1W!pelA). L~El. _. ~=+~'l.{:'l.{:'l.{:-. .¥f M.it. MM JapJo. DlllUi ~~I. ~~E .~:z. 9sJ:.!j :rg~~ m~D. 9~1f .,. MI'IUl ~q ~. o:. ~'i: ~IfJJ ~.. .~J. ~Y ~lf8. Elffl'. r Ct~ ~r ;!tyv.£f 'f{ ~tI ~ ~r 4t J ~. "* .!(. ... tL~2~ .:ftl- -. +-;:: , I5a.

(10) 92. ~!<i1i£1b~iQ~'iiiH~*'(tq~M. o. '. 3,4f]. );)..'&.Mt.~\lilW.~iI~\i.(tq3(3::1rm~l!.. -0. 1f~. ~+AB'~~~~±~rr~~~~&M~~~T~~7r~~~m~~~. FOUIJ. 0. W.~J '~.~~lli=+~*~.-M~~~W.~'~~ ••• ~~H.N~. ~7-M~ffi~m.fj.1i$o. Hf*,. r~~~m~~~w.~J~w m.r~~,. 116.. •• m.~.~'~M=+li.o±.~W~.. ~m'-*~J~o r~~J.:. ~~I. '~~m~h'~~~ffW~~. .~:. ~~'~~~~m~~~~~~~~A*m~o~.~~mR~~~~m~~~~R. &~~. ~~~~~~~~~~~o='~.~~~~~*~ffW.=~o=,~.~~~~. r A~. 'ffiR. OWl. ~~~§~~~m~o r_*~J.,.~~§~~~~-~~±%m'ffiR~~~. MissiJ. &lH~t±.*. :!ij~. ~.~~~~~~~.M'~~. ••• L~.Mo~'~~mo. r_~~J. 0. •• D~~Rffi~m±~~~±%m'R~.m, ' ~~R~IJ ' ll1~~~~li:rJ4IJj(f:lJj~mZL~ , .~J~f$~Aur~~ r ~~.III '. .~.~'~~~~H ~~i&. Measl. ~~m'~*~.=~J~ffi~~~H.o.~~.~7~~~.~i&~'~~'.. fl., , W~ 1~~t. , Ji.:ft~~~~~~W~IJj(f:lIJlIJ~rtJ ' .~~~~~M~m~~~f'FrUH*,~. 0. r~~~m~~~w.~J~~~'.~~~ffime~~. ••• ~~~~H.ll1. ~~mw~#H.m~7~.~i&~ll1~f$~mo~m~~'m~e~m~'~~~ ~~=+me~~~.M~H.,&~~~m~*.o~~. m.~~~~~~~~ft'~~§~~D~~~~. ••• '~.~~~~A. •• ~~h~~~~~~~~~~. ~.~~~'~~~~~~~li:rJ4m~~~mL'.~ffi~~~~H.om~~~ur ~7D~ffi~~~H.~~*~m~·~.H.~~+~~*~.7~*.~o~~ ur~7~~.~5#H.'~~M~~~.7R~~W'~~.7.~d.o~~.. ~7~M~~A~M*~.~·~M~~~~~Afttt*B~~~o~~~~m~§ ~~±~'~~ll1~±%m~OOffiR~~o~~~*Lm~7e~~~~~~~mo ~~~~.'W~'Ji.:~~~M~~~~W~~~&~~.*o~~,~.~~~~ ~~~~~~~.,~~.m~~.f~,~m~.ll1~~~~~~~OO.ff7.~d s&:~~~.fFo r~.~m~~~w.~J.~.H.~. f$~~Arm~r*. ~~~*~. ••. 0. ,. •• ~~.~7i&~,~~~m~~~. ~~~.R.~~UJfl.~. r:p.Hf*,~ftgd.~m~~~~fB. 0. ~-.~~~~'.~~A~m~~~'*~.~;~.D~-M~. lE'~~~~~ffia:F¥7fij~ho. ~~~.&M~~.ffi. ••~~~.~~H.~m~r~.M'~~m,~*~. .=~J~ffi~~~H.'~~m~~~.~~.~.~~~~ffia:F¥~ffi.~~~ fj.~'~ •• ~~n~~~~~~'~~'n~~~-.~~%~m.~~~M~A. IJ. 1JJf ' 11. i&~9=. a:F¥'. 9.lGAjJ!. ~mil. '8~.l;J. =BIE. I9IHI. MIJ:iJ~. ilm~ r~~.

(11) =+-i!!:*2fJ] I¥J 1t f!U&~fUl i,MHff ~o. =0. !~!Ir?t. \¥JllttiU. 91. '*. 1ik61i *a _ I'fJ q:t :ttfI] ~ ~ Wi 1i ¥J llt k61i I'fJ iU 1J~1! !'J ft ~ ~ ~ (The Heritage Foundation) -ULfft~Wi"l1aW~ArielCohen~~¥yq:tftUft~?tf'Fa9f,tBi ' BmMT mlfmtE:Wf§15f1]~iJtJ3Cm~.m~JfJl~ 13 ,U~mHI'J1L,lJffl I'fJIHH*'i® ~*-.t ' q:tfftr~ Hf*,I'fJ~Bi1E:W~tf-J • • J))'&~iJ!11B r q:t:ttli~ J ' r q:tm8OCfttt J ;t:ZP:fif,tBi 0. 0. 0. '~iU.. .a~~q:t·q:t~I'fJ§Qq:tiUm.W~ml'fJ:tt~~~mtE®o~~'~~M1500,q:t. :fiiI 1it!iE. ~~15tE~±~~'R!1~*~~-.t·q:t:tt~~~~fft~WitE¥~I'fJM~;W~~Wi. ~i5f1]1L. ~~~q:t:tt!11B~.I'fJM~oq:tfft~§R~mAm±.Z~·T~~~,~~;t:~iJm. JI'fJ*fk6 ~ , tl'J1L JM!115. r Atlua_ J *T~jjjijml'fJ~~ ~* tE51-M1500 ' !!15:tt~R!1~tf-JT~f4~~ ( Kosovo) $ftt • &~iJ.$:rj(.Wtt1l ; R!1~iJMW r_m1I\5lJIJJJJl* J (Theater Missile Defense, TMD) , r iJ~1I\5lJIJJJJl;f;~ J (National Missile Defense, NMD) :!1S51-' q:tfft~M~J.!q:t52:J:tgmiJ~.g.f'F' f,tBi rf'gIL'ilMm'1it!iJ (ConfidenceBuilding Measure system, CBMs) ,mlJJJ~iJ~1JI'fJ~A. 1L:::fT 'k61i ' ~31 ' f( ::Hf*,1'fJ. 0. ·. 0. 0. 1i. ... ,**. i~. (-) ftE m; Ir~UI.F.j:ti ' I=j:l fi iil~HI1r fF AI LX. ~Hf*,lIJ. mfl2JSIi-"'F~m;a9P1-QmIUI. q:t~~. Hil~A. IJ\:ffi$ (George W. Bush) i&J&tE=OO-lf:-.Fl-.t~fi ' ~1Jit1:i.fIHI±.*. ~BiI'fJ:tt. .'$~~M-1I.1ir~!1~. ~PlijiHI. i&~q:t'~m:W~~*!'J;t:M~:W~~~I'fJH~'~iJiUm~~§al'fJ~~~~m~. ~. PlijiJ PlijiJiI 0. ~iI~§. lrl:l,a. 0. ~F:f. '. *.!~::l'~11l1J:E1'fJ8OCft~. ,. Jl'fJr~~~.iJJ.o.C~.m'~ • • l'fJiJ~. ~~m1i*/J\liiJ~.g.BI'fJti!31jfi1J~. , .$tJ. ' *tfl]. .Am±.Tmfi~o:::f.A~tE±.-.t;t:~.~~iJ;t:_1Ir.1J*.:::fn~m~ ~mm. •• !'J~JI'fJ$.o~iJ.1ifi~fI]rM~J. ••. '.~iJ~~~ • • m~,. BiUm~~.m.iJl'fJ.A'~&1i-1IiJ~iUmm~Bo. mtE=oo=lf:~.Fl+. :!'J~M. ~B1E~.W(R • • f-J>:M!~.~f,tiJ~.5lJIJJJJl;f;~(NMD) ,~.m~iJ.1ifi. '-'¥1I~. ~ • • I'fJ~ili.~o~51-':ffi$tE~ilR~.Ii~~m'. i:M! J)). $ r~.o. r~m~~~~tE-~,~. m~~.ID~~tE-~J '~~~iJf'Fwr~~~.I'fJ~~J. °tE=OO=lf:-.Fl1'fJ ~m~)(q:t , 3<.~~t. ' WAA ' Wtt1lft.!l-.t r $~fIIIlC.\ J (Axis of Evil) I'fJIUi 0 W r.m!'J~J ,r~~~~JI'fJN$~~MW§~iJZD,~r J • •iUA-m o. -110. :::fft!1 • 1'fJ~ WmllJlll. tti® Ariel Cohen •• The Russia-China Friendship and Cooperation Treaty: A Strategic Shift in Eurasia?' The Heritage Foundation Backgrounder. July 18, 2001, http://www.heritage.org/Research/Russi aandEurasia/BG 1459.cfm.. tt® Elizabeth Wish nick, • Russia and China-Brothers Again?" Asian Survey, vol. XU, no. 5, September/ October 2001, pp. 798- 801. tt{@. Stephen G. Brooks and William C. Wohlforth, • American Primacy in Perspective," Foreign Affairs, vol. 81, no. 4. July-August, 2002, pp. 20 33..

(12) 92 ~. m46 fi m2 Wl. $fI*I!¥Hiff~. ~fl92. 4'- 3 ' 4 11. flfJ {E flfJ r~UifUlJU[J B!H~H~IJ It i) ittt ~ :§- flJ fii~flJ m'8iM ; {E flfJ ~il.:if' 3~J~:jt _1:* '. ~~flfJ~~It~W:jtfi~~'~flfJ~*~'8iM~~Z.~~o. ~flfJ~m.~ •• ~~.~ft~~~~~~flfJ~.n.~~flfJ~~~'~~~~. fIX jiij flfJ fFm:jt::t: ~ .. ft!1~ : 1.. flfJ~.. n i!i!iH~ ~ 3Hll fIXRWf ' it ~ i!i!BH~ 7. jiijflfJ~.~,~{E-~WIt~~~7~~~~~m~~~~~~~~::t:~n.{E~~. ~~~. flfJ~~~~~~fl:. 2. "9' 11" $#-f.a!R7~flfJlll!i?Jj;)J~*±w*~¥IJ.m~ill~tJ. liHf. .~~~,m~~I!i?J~~oo~~~*±~~.~flfJ*~~~~~§~'Woo~~7~. ~lil. 0. flfJ~~~~mm!!m §fJ-!t~MUI.tiIHI. rJl& '. ' :>{~*fUl*±~~. 0. 3.. ~{E NMD. ~.. 7._. ' $f'2rJl& ' {E52:;t~"1J[]5Dioom~HlfiJis.rJl&~*1&~:jti& .~5Di~~~'~~~~&~n~R.~'m:if'.fi •• tt~~~~f~o. .~ti. ~ooflfJ~~.{Ew~~~&~mmm~.m~~'~m7!1r~~~~~~.~. ~~~. •• ~:if'~~.1:*:.-'M~~.~M~~.~~&o~M. .~1i. ~fIX~flfJM~~.~'M~!1~.~o:jt~,{E~ftflfJ~~~~~~&'~M~~. flJll1i. ~tf-J*.rJl&. M~~~~~~J~jiij. ~~*~7.o~fIXjiijl!i?J~*~ftl!i?J*{E~~~&~M-~~'~M~{E~ftflfJ~~. ~:if'1J!. ~~~~&o.=,{EI!i?J~~~~~:if'~~±~~&o~~±~M.*~~~~~~. .o~. •• ~~ ••RWf•• flfJ~i&~~ti~,~. fi'm. WI!i?J~$.o~I!i?J~.ti.~~.$fi~ fl:~~Rmftj. 0. ~~m~~m~~~r~~~~J~~'{EW~~~&~'~~M~~~~ftj~. ~rm~. flfJ'.1:*•• =flfJtJM~'~~W~~~$o~~~.~*.~(-OO=).~~ AB~~~~1:*~'.RWf~.flfJ~!1W~~~.'~~M~~~~~*~~ ••R Wfffi~ ml*~:@.*5Difi1~UJ ' ~~f.trRJfJ~ • • ~tJiHN&~m:a~tl ' ::t:~MtJ.P& is.~&~?~mo~~±~.n.*i&~~~'.~~.'~~~~.~ ••r*' {E~~~~J ' 7t~&~'~MI1.~:@'* 1441 tJe~. mmff~.~ ~.{Ei&~fIJ~~. ll.~. 0. 0. '. 0. ~~~.G.~W~~~fIJ~G~-~~~~!1~~~.m~~.fi.~7-~~~ f-J~jlmfFmo. <=> cpflgilrA• • 'UsW~.:Ft. jiijl!i?J{E~~$.~ffili~~'. .~!1~~. ftfF. 0. ~1JIJM*.. "9 . 11" $#-j;J~. , jiij~Mti~. •• ±.~~~'~.*~flfJ~~~.jiijl!i?J~~ •• ±.~~a~1:*ojiij. ~ •• :if'MM':if'!1m':if'fi!1.=~~.~,~~.~~~~.o:if'MM'~Mjiij i!t~. The Financial Times, 2 February 2002, p. 2.. iI±~. .~, r.nrJll99='~flt=ftJlllfif;J. iIt~. ' IiIU'• • ' _0 0-4=:+-t} =+:=:B ,;g::::J'tii' Jli!fi1"' r 9='1.IlI?l-3CM:;X • P).~iIiIJ~· J ' _ _ lIfU' .;g-Il!lr-WI ' http://www.chinesenewsweek.. com/146/ChinaAffairs/13604.html. iIt~. John Pomfret, • China Backs Europeans on Iraqi Inspections; Beijing Refrains from Veto Threat,·. Washington Post, March 7, 2003, Page A24, 51 ~ Washington Posdln{http://www.washingtonpost. com/wp-dyn/articles/A53760-2003Mar6.html.. ~~J. ~Hf~. 'lfBfii.

(13) -+-m~m~~~~@H.~~. ~,. I!rJ~Md~.I'fJ.~'OO~Md~Mo~fim'.~fiPjl!rJffi~~fim'&~~ffMI!rJ .fimo~~fi.=I!rJ.~tp.fiPjl!rJ~w,~~m.=IJ.fi~~~A. ~tp. ~7. ~. ~~~m:ffl!rJ.il:lr~WI'fJHf~. •••. ,g~. 0. tp.I'fJ~~H~il~~H~.*I'fJI!rJ.~a~~~,fiPjl!rJ~I!rJ~. : 1. -fLfL=~+ -F.I ~WI'fJ. ~~. ~~flJa. IHT 7~. •• ~~~w ~~~~ffH.J@o~-fLfL~~fLF.lfiPjl!rJ.~A~W._ffMtp •• ~§~t ••. ~MD. tp.r~:lroo~=+-mel'fJilmtt.~H.J.o&-fLfL~~~F.lfiPjl!rJ~.~W. .:;tti&. 7.=-ffMtp•• ~§~t •• tp~~ •• M~~~:lrr~.mff,oo~-+-mel'fJ. 0. ~j:). r~ffM.m:~)(.H~¥U~m. •• tp:ff~~~. ~H.~~I'fJ.~§~). ~~mff.f*Hf~J (@. 0. ,~~fiPj~rffi~m.~WI!rJ.J. (H~tp.ffi. t.~~r. fL-t;~~F.I~1J rH~mW~~ft~il:lrl!rJ~ff~}f;. 4.. .I!!~. 1'fJ.~§~J®o~1J±~'~ffi#.m:±m~.±%m,~~~m'~~T~~i&'. ~m. ••~I!rJ.I!rJZ~H.I'fJ~*.~ ~il:lrl!rJ~ff~}f;I'fJ~~o&l!rJ:ffm•• *I!rJI!rJ.'~:lr@±~~.:;tt •• m.,~ 1!rJ~I!!T.otl.~~~.~.~·~ •• *l'fJm~~l!!d ••• ~.I!rJ.H.I'fJ~ Wo&I!rJ~~*~\·~OO' •• ·~~IJ~tl.I'fJ~.d~'ffMI!rJ.~~I!!~*. m • :JtfJ~'Ii&tEi • BIfI!rJ~ •• ~1Jg~:Jtl1JmW~~-ftl'fJ •• ~I!rJ~ff~}f;1'fJ. ~. 1!rJ. I~~. ~~~ ~. ,. ~. ~.~~'~~~.:&.:;tt.~~I'fJI!rJ~~.~l!!d. 0. .:lro~=OO-~-t;F.I~~I'fJ(tp.~~~W~ff.~).-~~~7~1Jr.~. •• fiPjm~~·~W·~ff~~.mffl'fJ~~.ff.~H.Jeoar~.~ff. Hi~. ~oo~. ~=-F.I. ~~:&.. •• d:lr.§Jeolli~*,tp.~.~~~.~m~~'M~~~~:lr~~r~~ ~.J.1JOOI'fJ~ff~m7-~l'fJd.otp ••• d:lrl'fJr~.~ff•• r&~tp.~ ~H.~~~~m~.-~~~o~rr.=-.~~·.~~m~~ •• ~1JOO~ ••. -.::;t;: ,. ~ B a~:±lI'fJ~mttf'Fffl~. ~~.. 0. ]IJ~. ~ I'fJ$fJ. lIt@. lite. html. iIt~. H~~ ~. r 1IIID1:,*,.AKIHOil;ft]tJ.Ulwr.1Iltfll[lIIIf"'~@if.JfIIHt.1Jl J (1992/12/28) • ,*,.A~jt;fOil9l-9: lJIIl'lJ!{ • http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/1653.html. r '*'~.ft.1Jl j (1994/09/03) • ,*,.A~jt;ft]il9l-9:lJIIl'lJ!{ • http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/3276.. 0. fiPj. t~fiPj. 'sweek.. treat: onpost.. r '*'~.ft.1Jl J (1996/04/25) • ,*,.A~jt;ft]il9l-9:lJIIl'lJ!{ • http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/2832. html. lIt®. ,*,.A~jt;ft]iI;ft]~.wr.1Il1ID1:1!!:W.:Jttift;ft].IlilIUfi~Ff:if.J.ft.1Jl. lite lite. :J!<;ft]il9l-9:lJIIl'lJ!{ , http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/3187.html. .~ Altll' = 0 0 - 4'--1::; Fl + r- 8 • http://www.people.com.cn/BIG5/review/20010716.html. r ~fijftffW".filG:ll:llS J (1996/4/26) • ,*,.A~jt;ft]il9l-9:lJIIl'lJ!{ • http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/. (1997/04/23) •. ,*,.A~. chn/26936.html. lIt~. r J:fij1iil J. m,*,.A~:J!<;ft]iI;ft]~.1fJi.1Il:J!<;ft]iI. (Kyrgyzstan) :J!<fOiI '. t1fEi~ItIi!.!1. 04'-j))I!U~ltJl~.lJlJtlf;!;jBIJ. II€tfj~wr;t!!. (Kazakstan) :J!<;ft]iI • EiJlEiIfJi. ._.11'. lIt1D1:=OO-4'--JHEAfilGA r J:fijirffilMJ • ..t:.iI-8-fU.Il_iC*."Ii• • (~tJj{ : l¥lJilil'litt • =0. (Dushanbe). -It • $~,*,ilJ.lHl:ilJ!gllllf"'IifF~Jnlf 0=4'-) ;~H~' rJ:~1iil~~irffW,*,~~~J 4'-~Fl,J!{::::::':::::::':-1ir-o. '. (Tajikistan) :J!<;ft]iI • AllinB~~IfJi*.!1 (Uzbekistan) :J!<;ft] ilD1:= 0 0. ·~.*.~~·m~+~~m~M·~ilnO.

(14) r ~~.~~:9:~~~~fi5 ' 0 00-= J ~ It ~ {3- , ;It r:p tt1e r:p ~ * If?!J~HI jJ!j*f. ~ ID ~ r:p I'fJfl9 ~ tIf?! tt!rtr rRIl'fl~ t5 ilH~ , r:p fIX fjcftllllf*'i'IHm1m5§{ , 0 o-~t~ ~5Ei¥Jr:pfIX~~r,,'~K8~r:p ~*If?!~t$.~ilW. r:p;jHJl~~~lIIlf*,if~mfl~. i¥J.5E~T-OO~OOi¥J~~~~o~~~~m.I'fl~~,.~~~r:p~*If?!~r:p§~ ~l'flllllf*,~-~b[]5§{. , ~fIJ1er:p~*If?!"fl9~tilBli¥JlI5E~. 0. ~mlijt"r:p~~~:9:~$. ,. -~~m'~~~~.~W:9:~ID~~It~{3-'&~Tr:p~ft~:9:~.~tt.M~~. :iii !it i¥J JiSt ~~. 0. ,. .ff~. 1. tN. r:p ~ fft!Ua;Z~ 1'fl51-~.~ 13 tJ. ' fIXIU1Tff r:p ~ I'fl 51-~.~ r:p Wliii~1ftPU ~~I'fl~~of£~~:9:~nOO'fIX2M~mWr:p~~ft~ilW.~I'fl •• ~~,tt~r~ ~t J (*~t, ¥~t:&"fl9~t ) jJ!jWlI'fl:9:~lOfl5E~~~9!f:l'flf'Fm 1"'flHlDJit ' fJX3Im1e ;ltf£~~.r:pl'flr •• J.m,.r:p§~~~~~9!f:I'flIlll~,~ttr:p~MiI:9:~I'fl~ 0. .~1"'~~r:pfJXilW.I'fl~~o.~~~·fJX.M~r:p~~~If?!.ilW.:9:~~~5EI'fl~ .~m~.off~~r:p~~~jJ!jmnOO'fJX2Mm.~iliw.M~~Mr:pI'fl-~~~~ .'ff~~jJ!jWllO~~~.~~,~oo~~~ttr:p~~~nOO~~~~.~o. ••r:p. ~f£.;It.~~I'flIlll~r:p1"'nrfIX2M~J '.1"'MH'1"'ttm'1"'Mtt.=~om. •• I'fl~~fl.~tt~.o~~~~'fJX.M ~r:p~~~.WllO~~~a~.~~~.ml'fl •• o ~I3MlO~.+-+E~~~1"'~~.r:pfIXlIIl~l'flft~ ••@o.~'~~ff~ r:pfJXlIIl~l'flfl~'.~~ttr:p~f£~~. illO~~.~~~~~~~~I'fl'~fi1"'~I'fl~~'~~I'fl51-~.~l3tJ,.~~. ~~-~I'fl~rRI°~~m~~~IIIl~l'flft~~~o;lt-'.~tt1efJXaM'3I~r:p~. *~'**ffi.-a.~~'~~~"fl9n*~m.~~.tt~:9:~~~~.I'fl.~m f£~.o-nOO'~~R~~nmttM~~l'flmf£~.W.fi~~·~-nOO·~~ ~~n~@ttttnl'fl.61Om.6mo;lt~'ff~. •• 5E~~jJ!jml'fl~~'r:pfJX~~. ;z~~.I'fl~.~~fl~T~~1er:p~I'fl~ft'~.~~'fIXaMff~.-a.~~ i¥J.~.~~M.~~"~~~,~~m~.:&;It.'Wr:pfIX~~~ Ilg~@fl~1"'ffiU.'8tt~I'fl~~. •• rRI~~x~. 0. 1r:pfJXlIIl.l'flfl~m.#f£~¥·~oottl'fl~. f1t~.. ·I'flll; I'flt£j aM, BiffiU ~ I'fl. 11111. 0. <=} lUIWi i± E:p tt 9i- ~ VIi II! E:p B91M AI vre 1irI f!~. 1lt~. i&tElI. r· ~tfl' W,*,ID!IIII~tfJ.ilft J. •. •• o~.~mff:;It-· ••*f. _it•• (trtmllt) • =0 O=lf:1'\iV\ B • http://www.. zaobao.com/cgi-bin/ asianet/gb2big5/g2b.pl?lyl/txOO1_080602.html. 1lt@ ~~. 1II'fl' r 1!t*ilz.3CtfJ,*,1D!1III1~ J • 51 E! ,*,lItt*~.~Jll:Ii:,*,i::!iF~m'H{ • http://www.cass. net.cn/chinese/s24_oys/Production/projects29.html.. 1lt@ F<lJi!lJ1lt o 1lt@ F<lJi!lJn·.

(15) •. •. *. fuX~ff;.. ~~J.. m~.tP. ~.·OO WiE~~. VtPWi ••mn 6~m~. !ntH.' IDom::: tP¥.ffto qiE~. D1~~i .~~. "$iI. o~.~~~*~ltnU*Il::lW~U~tP~IHm:~fj!ntJnf} , Y!!l!I1~ M.~tP'~~~W.W~~¥.* •• ~~~WDA~,~ •• *~~~ay, • • ±•• ~~!ntB."$'¥Vo.fu~~tPll::lm~~~T~~#*· •• #*~. ~.M!ntB ••• ~~.±'~VcMm#* •• ±.fu±~.~~~m~fj~ •• • ' ? . #•• ~VtPfjX.~'~W.~mB?~~D~.m.~.' Vo~ .~~+W±~ •• ~~.!ntB.fj.~*~~u.~~~amWmti°*~~~~ m•• ~#m~.~fjW&·.~•• V'~~U.~~~Il::l~ •• ~~m~~!ntH .'=Vo*~~.~li~.~tP •• W~~aL~~#~B* •• o~.m.~~ ~-€5~IE±~ij±!!l!~ , fifMm:W*~tP.*SIltf:#~m~rt§f~}~ , fr¥jJ~;§;m~i!~ •• ~~ •• ~.q~-M~tPm¥SIltf:#~~.'.~W~~. .*.~~~~.m. =J:gf. fuifA¥l. jjm~. ,~~. ~~tP. -M~~iI. .tP'. r_OO.

(16) I. I. Sino-Russia Strategic Relations in The Early 21st Century. flII/J\. ~. ~/J\~. Yong-kang Ting. rm¥~. ~~~. tp~fj. Abstract On July 16, 2001, Jiang Zemin and Vladimir Putin signed in Moscow the" Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation Between the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation" . The treaty laid a solid foundation for long-term political and strategical relations between the two countries, a milestone in Sino-Russia relations. The treaty sets forth a brand-new concept and abandons the old thinking about state relations (either alliance or hostility). It fully represents the common interests of China and Russia in terms of both bilateral ties and international affairs defining relations as a new type .. No alliance, no hostility, targeting no third countries" . On this basis, it aims to develop good neighbor relations. Keywords: National interest; geostrategy; unipolar; strategic convergence; Confidence Building Measure system; the Grand Chessboard. ~. *~Ef. B~t. E;t;:~. ~t tp~tp. ( ~EJ~. ~f!i.. 38 11~~. fff..

(17) =+-m~m~*~~@U.~fi. n. 9:f5Jtlt ./J\ZJ'i (1993) , r fr!i*~titt~ • rmrH** J • (BlVJ\ZJ'ixjB~_:ff) • ~tJir : A.~tJj Jif± ' 291-295 !l/J\1JI:} (1998) , (ff;.:&.;tt:iI~) ·..t.tIi: ..t.tIiA.~tJjJif± raJ~iH! (1996) • (t:J:r~II~~U~;t*fi) • ~~: ~~A.~tJjJif± ••¥ ( 2001) • 211!t*Gt:J:r~91-3C:.1II1i • ~tJir : lIif$tJjJif± t:J:r~JJ!ftll~IRI{~iJf~ffi ( 2(02) • (1I~.III1iW3t~~~~fii 2001/2002) • ~tJir : 0. 0. 0. 0. ~$tJjJit±. 0. *;@:$ (2000) • rll~~IJ~Q!;(I!Tq~? J • <lii~~~) '2000if:9F1 22 B • Ji7. :ow. the. da the na. ner. md. )os. On. ~e;. 'd. ij~~ (. 0. 1992) • <fnIlt:J:ri*~IRI{~1E~{t; ( 1979-1989» • .~t : =~.rnJ :tl~~::tli (1994) • <t:J:r¥A.~jHt:lllfi91-IRI{~~) 1949 10 FI-1989 if: 10 FI • ~tJir : ~tJir*~tJjJif± t:J:r~t:J:r~X.iJf~~1i(1993)· r!=pi*JIIHt~~J' <+.::::*tJ.*mJ!x• • Ii) ( ..t.) • ~tJir : A.~tJjJif± la3~::t1i (1998) • <:J:tgai&tftwt:J:r~91-3C:) • ~tJir : ~tJirtJjJif± ~1Ii. (1999) • r ~3t1*lRIlP.6~ff;.ti B *fit:J:r~Il'9i&J;ft J • <rJje~iJf~) • ~ 38 :ff~-WI • 1-15 J1J~¥ (1997 if:) '!f.:&' ~, r fnIl ~t*"1J$i.-:J:tgai&tftWXIJI:}!Jr;f1i ll'9fJ!m;t *fi J ' < lIiJf~) (~tJir) '~3 WI~ 11 :ff • 39-81 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.

(18)