大陸通貨緊縮型經濟增長之分析
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(16) •• *M.tt~.~~~~M~'M.wm•• ~.a. 1\sf.@. •• ~*M W~*~.~ ••. ~M~. ••••a ••• ~mE'~~~~~M.m~gm7 ••~*~~. fiUWJJ1. M.&M.**~M~,*n ~~(~.M. ••. '~. ~·~.~.M.~.,~~~a .~mE~&M. .... *.) ••••. .... W~M~.Mo.='~M~~~. ~.'~~~~. e. ~. (J!I. ~Wr::. ~i&f ~1JJ?1. ~~. MO. Ml. M2. 1990. 12.8. 19.7. 28. 1991. 20.2. 13.4. 26.5. 1992. 36.4. 35.9. 31.3. 1993. 35.3. 38.8. 37.3. I. Jl:. 1994. 24.3. 26.2. 34.5. I. it¥U~. 1995. 8.2. 16.8. 29.5. i. 1996. 11.6. 18.9. 25.3. 1997. 15.6. 22.1. 19.6. 1998. 10.1. 11.9. 14.8. 1999. 20.1. 17.7. 14.7. JU-HIUJ : -tLtL:;t~cplI:fi.~. ( ~tJR : CPB?Hri!B!f:&.It:as ' j}) ,JtIl!101L. 0013' .~jj. li~~ ft~J:t. -1L1L~!f:+. 0. -tLtLtL~cplI:fi.~.(~.:CP~*!B!f:&.It:as'-1L1L1L!f:+-. :PA,;:j. t. 3(;gt. j}) ,Jtll!l:::'.-.. ••H. ~~~. ••••@'D~ftA~~*~~ftft~m~.* ••. ~~.~~~~.'ill~ftft~.-~~~.m~'~&~M~~M~.~~~~* ~.~~~m.~fflM~.~*.m'M~-ftftft~~$M. •• ~.~tt~M ••. • • ~~ (accommodating) ~M • • •® ' ~:tt$±~;gffl : (1) *~$*M.~f1 M~·A~~~~~~*r. •• ~~&~~~~~ • • ~,*g~.~• • ~.~m:~cp~~~~.. ••MA~~~~~~·~~.~~~~W~~n~~.~.;mDD*~.N••N~~ • • MA~~~.~~~~~;m.*~~.*.MA~~TnB~~.*~.;~.*~ •• *.~~ JttDDl1I!flJJ8~JfllASlw~~.,m • • *~ , ~~-.jfIHljlj~~Jtt~ r.t)&tt;jJj!~a~ • • ~~w~@ ~.~.~. tt® El~*g~a~.ft!Ej..:A*·. ~~.~~~m/lPli-l1f1ijt;J. : tt;l!Il.~a~.~~.~mIA:II!~~ij(m •. a~ij(m~.:II!~~~~ij(moliH*g~W~.M~~~~m'.~m~*· r.~a~.~M~~ ~m~~~ttJ. jj. $3(1. -ftftA~$.fim.M. ••. '-iliA. -tLtL~~CPII.H~.(~JR:CP~.~!f:&lli~~'-1L1LIl!l!f:+= A~8.'=OOO!f:-j}+:::'.B·m=~·. tt@ . ~~~. ' • • m~·-OOO!f:mtM·Jt=Il!l-:::'.-·. GDP!. ~.j. ~1il )\~. .. #M: 1It2¥: m~J.
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(18) ~~J ~ID. ff~~'R$(%). m_$(%). ~I:I:lD$(%). ~n::'R~~'R$(%). ~~j. 1978. 8.43. 62.10. -0.32. 29.78. 15tJi1. 1979. 7.93. 64.30. -0.48. 28.26. 1980. 5.98. 65.39. -0.33. 28.96. 1981. 6.69. 67.51. 0.23. 25.56. 1982. 4.86. 66.27. 1.66. 27.20. 1983. 4.87. 66.17. 0.84. 28.13. 1984. 4.79. 65.53. 0.02. 29.67. I. 1985. 8.47. 65.66. -4.17. 30.04. I. 1986. 7.38. 64.56. -2.52. 1987. 4.92. 63.23. 0.10. 31.75. 1988. 5.92. 63.66. -1.03. 31.45. 10.66. 64.11. -1.13. 26.35. 1990. 9.35. 62.04. 2.79. 25.83. 1991. 7.41. 61.77. 2.90. 27.91. 1992. 5.10. 61.68. 1.07. 32.16. 1993. 5.85. 58.50. -1.97. 37.62. 1994. 5.15. 57.39. 1.36. 36.10. 1995. 6.11. 57.49. 1.71. 34.70. 1996. 5.17. 58.54. 2.14. 34.15. 1997. 4.41. 58.19. 3.81. 33.59. 1998. 2.42. 58.74. 3.86. 34.97. 1999. 1.24. 60.28. 2.73. 35.76. 1989. I. I. i. H:~ffi.~~~~.M~.D~~~~.~~~~.~M~~a· .~*lIj: ~1iiII.1t~. (~~5r: '*'~rt;~1f-affiJVHI:'. rE~: !. ~~' I. I. 30.57. I. i. I i. =0 0 0i}:::fLF.l ) 'll' t;.1i-t;.t;... ~fi.~*~~~~.~.~#a~~.~@fi.(~~) ,-ftft=~-ftft. ft~'~~a-~.-+A~O'=~~IT.~~='=~liITt+~~li'3~li IT=+-~-'=~=IT.3~~,-~ftIT-+li~-'-~.=+~A'~~~ ~~~ ••• ~~tt.~~aIT~Zli~Ali'li~-li'~~--'lim-t,~ !PJi~-. , -!PJi~=~-m-~. 0. rE~J!tfi*. (@fi1iii). ~~ft:QJ~. ,. if:tAftO~RZ. ~,*~#arra~r.~MJ~m8~.~®:~-ftft=~~-ftftli~~~~. lIt® • •:ti'Jtt9:.~ r IffJllWl (procyclical) J J!l!lli ' :ti'~t9: • • ~.~.M!~jqJJt;]1!t!IIJ • J!PM!~jlj1J1I\1 • :ti'~t9:.il1Jfl • M!~f,fjj&1I\1 • :ti'1tt9:.~'O£::Jr • ~JI ' ~a:~. r.:ti'~.M!~1!t!IIJ ( L) J 'lit. ft.'=OOO1f-~1iWl·llt;.-t·. Z}\i.
(19) *~. TI. 'L. J.. r:. 9. " ~. r. •• ~~~.~_.~~fi. n. 3!1!ftt*M 'ff~:N:jf* (J!Dff~:N:jf25GDP~J:t*) l~JJiJ!jl:jftt*, mi'i'-:tL:tL1\$ ••ftt** ••• m~ftt*.·ff~:N:jf*~~MOO&T~oMmi.~.~.'ff~ :N:jf~ •• ~~~~B~&~·~~~~~ff~:N:jf~GDP~m25J:t~~~~L~o ~.lim~·~-:tLtAM-:tL:tL:tL$~·.J:t~~ ••• T~~·~tA$~§~ ZA~~~·- •• ~:tL:tL$~§~Z-~=~o*~ff~:N:jf*T.~~~.~. ~.~ff~:N:jf*fi~§~Z-'B.~~o Mmi'~M-:tL:tL~M-:tL:tL:tL$~ff~ftt~M.~M~~~.~.~ftt~Mffi J:t'3$ff~ftt~M~.$~~~.~.ftt~M~J:t.~m.§~z=+~~=1\· +:tL~t='=+~=li'~+li~:tLli·li+~~-·~+1\~1\~=+:tL~t:tL. (.1\). o~m~~$m~'ff~ftt~M~~~~.~.ftt~M~J:t.*~gL~'. ••• (-:tL:tLt$) 'ff~ftt~M~~~~.~.ftt~M~J:tm, :tL:tLt$••• §~Zli+~~,-:tL:tLA·:tL:tL$U~mT.,mjl:j.§~z~+ 1\~1\~=+:tL~t:tLo&ffi,*.~.a •• ~,~~~~.~.~ftt*~ff~~ ftttJ[l.~7.~1'Fffl ' '8rJft!i~~~.~.fttb[]MMm:-*~-~z- , ti~Z ' m: ~_$**.~~~ ••• ~~~M~Mm:-*~3~Z-.~~ff~~~m.o ft~ *~ •• ~~D~GDP ••• ~D~~. mi~.~.~. ~f7). fi.ii:bll$i. GDP .iliii:bll$i. %. 1990. 1712.0. 1853.5. 92.37. 1991. 1577.0. 2960.9. 53.26. l3l9.0. 4583.3. 28.78. 1993. 2018.0. 8637.0. 23.361. 1994. 24043. 12190.0. 1995. 3576.5. 11819.8. 30.26. 1996. 3531.1. 9819.9. 35.96. 1997. 3303.4. 6563.8. 50.33. 1998. 1915.1. 4109.1. 46.61. I. 1020.8. 3426.4. 29.79. I. 1992. ... i. 1999. 19.72 i. -. R:~W$~~~ .fl.~:. i. •• M~.~~~~ •• M~~H.~.~~.·. ~M. •• (ft~:.~~H.EW.ti·=OOO.hR). ·.~li. ~~. /\/'\. (>. ~~~~u*,*~~~m.~.:N:jf~~~*~~*,@.~~ftt~*~~~o ~.:N:jf~,~*~ ••• ~~ •• *~.~tl~~~jf.:N:jf~m.:N:jf*;*~ ~~~jf.:N:jf*jl:j·~a3fi~Mft'~*~~~~mI.~~a':N:jfw**~o @'i':N:jf*~.,@~~m~~7~n~mff~,~~m~. ••~~'~:N:jf~*T.o. -:tLA:tL$M-:tL:tL-$~~'i'~~~g~.·~~.~~.·w&~~m.~**.
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(23) *g~~~.~~~~.~9fi. tr&t¥J f.I~. 1F.ii ~,. Analyses of Deflationary Economic Growth in Mainland China Shu-fen Hung. Abstract The economy of Mainland China has is now experiencing deflationary economic growth because of the Asian financial crisis, the influence of global over-production and dropping of prices, the lengthening of the economic fluctuation cycle, the appearance of insufficient demand, and the adjustment of supply due to systemic reform and structural adjustment. Inventory has been the cause of half of the GDP increases during the past two to three years. Since the last decade, increases of investment in inventory have facilitated the growth of capital investment. Regression of investment growth due to deflation, imbalance of supply and demand, and adjustment of the industrial structure are the main causes behind the sustaines increases of inventory. Because Beijing has continuously adopted an the expanded macro-economic policy, the strength of deflation has been dramatically decreased. Economic growth has been revitalized. In order to maintain the continuity of the economic policy and to consolidate economic growth, the Mainland Chinese should continuously carry out active fiscal and monetary policy as the core of expanded macro-economic regulation policy. Keywords: economic growth; deflation; macro-economy. ~.
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