後冷戰時代中共新安全觀的實踐與挑戰
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(2) い瓣嘲╯ 材 44 . 58. 材2戳. チ瓣 90 2 る. 囊現舦ニ秆瓣悔砰╰跑てい穝﹚瓣產痲矗ど侯瓣Θ絋玂 瓣產膀娄ユ兜現郸ㄣノ絋玂㎝キ瓣悔祇甶吏挂 るい籔玐霉吹羛羘いそ秨船斌驹蝴絋ミ穝 芠稱 硂妓﹛よボ礛ㄣΤ伐ぃ碝盽種竡陪いΤ 種耚叉驹肚参蝴今籔筁篒礛ぃ˙ワ礛τㄓ莱ㄓ瓣 珼驹い縩伐眏籔玐霉吹闽玒矗ど瓁称倒瑈 稰谋穝芠癸いτē┏琌現郸旧ы┪琌腹陪讽 玡い﹛よボ籔ㄣ砰ユぇ丁絋瞷ぃ璓ぇ矪セゅ┮饼贝癚肈 辨罙秆い癸讽玡吏挂粄籔莱よ獽だ猂ゼㄓいユ現郸 ǐの綝笿珼驹阶ゅ材场だ盢虏瓃驹瓣悔奸跑て 单穝瞶阶癬方籔ず甧材场だ盢だ猂い钡瓣悔 穝奸ㄒ靡⌒穝芠矗材场だ翴讽玡い瓣悔丁 ┮綝笿珼驹籔莱ぇ笵材场だ挡阶い盢い莱ノ穝芠 瞶阶. 讽玡瓣悔瞶阶奸 驹拜肈碭琌㎝瓁ㄆ购单腹繦帝〕瓣悔 竒蕾瞴て秈甶瓣悔現獀竒蕾拜肈ユがノэ跑肚参芠诡拜肈à 秆∕瓣悔丁ら痲狡馒て侥穝瞶阶繦ぇ莱笲τネ程陪帝锣跑琌眏秸ノ 癸к㎝キよΑ秆∕瓣悔侥瞶阶跌パ稼瑆 緿ㄈ单跋办厩┮矗侯┦籔单瞶阶瞷Θ 瓣悔丁瞶阶穝奸瑈 单瞶阶矗籔瓣悔闽玒瞶阶臛阶い穝パ竡neo-libral institutiona lism砍癬Τ钡闽羛 驹瞷龟竡琌瓣悔闽玒瞶阶 瑈贝癚璶ず甧瓁ㄆ拜肈瞷龟竡疭眏秸瓣悔穦礚現 ┎anarchy篈の畓ψ眏瓣悔穦︽疭紉ネ瓣程膀 セ琌程蔼瓣產痲ぃ琵寸ぃ甧Т瞷龟竡安砞パ瓣悔丁礚現 ┎篈挡篶瓣膀硓筁self-helpよΑ垦―瓣產痲伐 爹. 緼チ畊㎝腑窜羆参帽竝い玐闽伐て㎝ミ瓣悔穝羛羘チら厨 ㄊるら材. 爹. Τ闽穝瞷龟竡籔穝パ竡瞶阶癸瓣悔芠翴の臛闽帝叫把綷Stephen D. Krasner, ed.,. ( Ithaca: Cor nell University Press, 1984) ; Robert Keohane, ( Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1989 ) ; Kenneth Oye, ed., ( Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1986 ) ; David Baldwin, ed., ( New York: Columbia University Press,. 1993 ) ; B. Guy Peters, York: Pinter, 1999 ) , Chapter 8, pp. 126°140.. PDF 檔案以 "FinePrint pdfFactory Pro" 試用版建立 http://www.fineprint.com. ( New.
(3) 驹い穝芠龟筋籔珼驹. 59. て闽猔礘翴耎セ瓣舦瓣悔㏕礛癸瓣Τ┘膙 溃の眔ぃ癸嘿┦紇臫發―癸痲relative gains护 荡癸痲absolute gains糤ㄏ眔瓣悔螟硂贺Τ 玱┶荡瓣悔瞷禜┮孔畕挂prisoner's dilemma瞷龟竡瞶 阶眎瓣悔挡篶琌硑Θ瓣產礚猭璶 琌眖瞶稱竡籔竡簍てτㄓ穝パ竡玥刚瓜ゴ瘆瞷龟竡 圾て安砞粄瓣產丁膀が虑パミが獺诀籔Τ笴栏砏玥簍跑Θ 瓣悔丁▆┦が笆瓣悔獶礚 穝竡疭眏秸诀institutionミ籔瓣悔闽羛┦诀ぇ┮眔ミ瓣丁 痲硓筁诀笲籔把籔よ痲眔˙矗どが笆ユΘセ transaction costs瓣眔が籜ㄤ诀セōㄣΤ瓣產︽ ㄏ眔瓣悔眔Τ笷Θ蝴瓣が苦闽玒interdependence瞏 狡馒瓣悔が笆闽玒тち翴 ウ膀セ安砞瞴て紇臫瓣 產丁が苦闽玒瞏て瓣┘丁痲挡絋玂が瓣產痲瓁ㄆ侥 ┦盢τ 獶猌よΑ秆∕侥笶Θ︽琌が匡拒 よ猭 虑パミΤ砏絛㎝Θ瓣丁好納糤┘が獺耎 瓣悔┦籔丁虏ēぇ穝竡眎琌ミが獺诀琌 贺箇ňて τ瓣悔诀猭┦玥ㄓ把瓣炊筂钡 暴瓣把籔ごぃ┪闽龄瓣坝诀いごш簍旧à︹ が苦闽玒ぇ┮镑瓁ㄆ侥闽龄瓣產丁痲腐籔疉の絛瞅 耎埃瓁ㄆぇ羭竒蕾穦ネ篈戈方单よ瓣悔丁 が笆が紇臫┘丁褐拜肈妮拜肈侯┦ 眎 眏秸拜肈蝴┦籔狡馒┦阀├玥凹龟瞷 爹. 荡癸痲琌瓣產籔瓣莉痲荡癸癸痲玥琌ゑ耕セ瓣籔瓣莉痲畉钵瞷龟竡瞶阶 眎瓣璝粄瓣瞓莉盢セ瓣癸痲耕┕┕渡彼荡癸痲τ匡拒ぃ 瓣眔セ瓣癸痲叫把綷 Joseph M. Grieco,¨Anarchy and the Limits of Co,. operation: A Realist Critique of the Newest Liberal Institutionalism,〃 vol. 42, no. 3 ( Summer 1988) , pp. 485°507. 爹 爹. ( New York: Basic Books, Inc., Publishers, 1984 ) .. Robert Axelrod, Robert O. Keohane and Joseph S. Nye, ( Boston: Little Brown, 1977 ) .. 爹. ( St Leonards:. Gareth Evans, A llen and Unwin, 1993) , p. 3.. 爹. Randall Forsberg,¨Creating a Cooperative Security System,〃in. 爹. Χミ竤籔い瓣ユ法褐絪法卖蔼糴捌絪阁い瓣ユ⌒¨い瓣. 爹. 糂確瓣侯┦籔瓣產拜肈籔╯材材戳チ瓣る. ( Cambridge, MA: Institute for Defense and Disarmament Studies, 1992 ) . ユ谨纷⒋〃癚穦阶ゅ栋ㄊ醚〕〕〕る °. PDF 檔案以 "FinePrint pdfFactory Pro" 試用版建立 http://www.fineprint.com.
(4) い瓣嘲╯ 材 44 . 60. 材2戳. チ瓣 90 2 る. 硚畖虑パ眔獶瞶稱τ琌Τ˙艼眔碻亥秈笷ヘ夹穝 瞶阶眎硓筁肪硄戈癟ユ瑈籔硓てミが獺诀拜肈ぃ虫 虫﹚瓣瓣ぇず瓣ぃョ篶Θ癸セ瓣斑Τňゎ ミセ瓣﹍眔絋玂 〕稼瑆羛幅舱Θ琌瞶阶ㄥ絛竒パ参碩 瓣產丁瓁ㄆ侥ど蔼竒蕾瞴て簍跑ㄏ眔竒蕾跋办てregionalism 将瓣悔奸瑈ㄈ瑆パ緿瑆┮矗磕侯┦籔 阀├芠硋亥Θ ㄓ膀阀├ㄈび瓣ミ 竒蕾单某肈坝诀眏秸炊筂把籔籔戈癟硓て盢拜肈だΘ糷Ω 恨笵硓筁坝诀秸秆∕眖糷Ω某肈ミ家Α硋亥筁寸秆∕蔼糷 Ω拜肈程沧ヘ侥祇ネ玡箇ň侥ス祇ネΤ 恨瞶て秆 パ穝竡┮璴ネㄓ瞶阶ヘ玡ご矪龟喷顶琿Τ ミ瓣醚ㄤ龟琌︽螟穝瞷龟竡瞶阶癸穝竡瞶稱ごぃ耞矗 眏珼驹 暴ぃ粄旧瞶阶矗絋龟秆∕瓣耑螟秆 拜肈盿ㄓ穝よ. い讽玡芠. Θ. 拜肈い闽猔ぃ度瓣ず﹚ョぃ 蝴臔琌い現郸膀娄讽礛珹ユ現郸ず弧芠鹅い ユ現郸﹚筁祘いΤ璶礛τ眖à芠诡いユ現郸 膀娄瓣產痲㏕礛琌瓣產痲み瓣產痲絛瞅玥約獂 痲丁眔キ颗琌ユ現郸﹚璶σ秖珿ちい拜肈硂 肈ぇ玡览眖い癸瓣產痲穝﹚籔ユ現郸﹚帝泊獽罙秆讽 玡い芠Θ籔э跑の穝芠癸いユ現郸紇臫. いユ現郸﹚瞶阶籔現郸ぇ闽羛 いユ現郸﹚┏紇臫厩丁ゼΤ﹚阶い籔﹁よ瓣產 爹. (Washington,. Janne E. Nolan, ed., D.C., 1994) ; Gar eth Evans,. ,. .; Stephanie Lawson, ed., ( St Leonards, Australia: A llen & Unwin, 1995 ) ;Randall Forsberg,¨Creating a Cooperative Security System ,〃 爹. Gareth Evans,. . .; Desmond Ball,¨Multilateral Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region:. Prospects and Possibilities,〃Report of the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies ( Australia, A pril 1999. 爹. Jonh J. Mearsheim er,¨The False Promise of Inter national Institutions,〃 vol. 19, no. 3 ( Winter 1994/95) , pp. 91°129.. PDF 檔案以 "FinePrint pdfFactory Pro" 試用版建立 http://www.fineprint.com. ,.
(5) 驹い穝芠龟筋籔珼驹. 61. 程ぃぇ矪癸瞶阶粄畉钵﹁よ厩矗瓣悔闽玒瞶阶┕┕琌沮芠诡 瓣悔丁が笆瞷禜┮崩簍ㄓ甅瞶阶家Αノ弧秆睦琌箇代ゼㄓ瓣 悔祇甶镣墩癸いτē瞶阶玥琌ノ現郸旧蝶︳ず吏挂兵ン匡 ﹚琘程続瞶阶膀娄沮﹚兜皌甅現郸 芠诡いユ現郸┕ ┕陪現郸籔瞶阶ぇ丁闽羛┦τい厩セō蝶︳いユ現郸﹚瞶 阶籔龟筋ョ盽眏秸ㄤㄣΤい瓣疭︹沮嘲厩絩弧猭┮ 孔い瓣疭︹琌() 眏秸瓣悔墩笆篈筁祘のいσ莱() 贝 癚瓣悔闽玒疭跌瓣產丁闽玒籔ベ() いユいご ǎㄣΤ笵竡︹眒场だㄒ眏秸は臦材皚犁 いユ∕郸家ΑぇㄣΤ疭︹籔いセō疭ゅて兵ンΤ闽ぷㄤ琌 穦竡祇甶瞶阶籔菌紇臫程玡瞷ㄓ琌い蹦︽瓣悔 竡τ玥瞷い眏秸チ壁竡 芠诡筁きㄓいユ 诡谋ㄢ墩竒盽瞷が┰亏┘и篈墩瓣悔竡眎籔讽玡穝パ 竡砏絛耕摸τチ壁竡┮绊玥陪籔瞷龟竡瞶阶ラ瓣悔 竡耕眏秸㎝キ笵紈腢弧籔▆┦が笆绊チ壁竡膀瞷龟竡 蝴玥琌眏秸瓣產舦籔眎龟秖鲸恨いユ現郸瓣悔 竡籔チ壁竡ㄢ秖┰ц计厩А眎いユ現郸籔﹁よ瞷龟竡 瞶阶弘耕钡 獽眖綡キ眎癸秨㎝キ籔祇甶郸菠いユ ∕郸セ借ごぃ叉瞷龟竡蝴璶瓣悔籖ш簍璶à︹璶绊は臦┮ 惠咎虑常ō龟舦舦龟瞷瓣產痲旧玥 眖だ猂糷猂level of analysisョいユ現郸瞷龟竡紇臫瓂 格いぃ跌糷Ωτ琌盢瓣產跌俱瞶┦︽跌à瓣產 籔砰╰ㄢ糷埃颗秖瓣ず瓣悔吏挂跑てョい﹚ユ現郸闽 猔礘翴帝瓣悔籔瓣ず羛笆┦ ―キ颗い現郸禸瓣ず よ現舦铆﹚琌玡矗ユ現郸皌笷Θ瓣產程蔼ヘ夹ㄣ〕 爹. 絩瓣悔闽玒瞶阶籔い瓣ユ╯戈い竌絪瓣悔現獀瞶阶贝い瓣チ き°. 爹 爹. 絩瓣悔闽玒瞶阶籔い瓣ユ╯玡まゅ ( Boulder:. Mel Gurtov and Byong-Moo Hwang, L ynne Rienner Publishers, Inc., 1998 ) , pp. 4°5.. 爹. 絩瓣悔闽玒瞶阶籔い瓣ユ╯玡まゅき°谅痲陪ユ醇紌籔垦菠⌒ 穝い瓣ユ瞶阶㎝玥綠猠玭チき°°きせ; Thom as F. Christensen,¨Chinese Realpolitik,〃. , vol. 75, no. 5 ( Sep./Oct. 1996 ) , pp.. 37°40; Yong Deng,¨The Chinese Conception of National Interests in International Relations,〃 , no. 154 ( June 1998 ) , pp. 320°323. 爹 爹. 絩闽驹籔㎝キ瞶阶σ玡まゅ〕 Quansheng Zhao, Kong: Oxfor d University Press, 1996 ) , pp. 20°33.. PDF 檔案以 "FinePrint pdfFactory Pro" 試用版建立 http://www.fineprint.com. ( Hong.
(6) い瓣嘲╯ 材 44 . 62. 材2戳. チ瓣 90 2 る. ソ戳秨﹍綡キ穝膏睦穦竡祇甶瞶阶矗てヘ夹いユ現 郸陪琌瞷龟竡本ユ現郸﹚ぃ籔種醚篈本筥ず场 ╰э玂àョ璶紇臫э膀セ眎秨钡瞴 て渡瓣悔竡玂膀セ玥耕眏秸チ壁竡舦孔琌妮瞷龟 竡絞碩セゅ盢瓣悔璶だ猂跑兜 瓣悔よ紇臫いユ∕郸秖ㄓい癸瓣悔吏挂耞τい 蝶︳瓣悔吏挂翴玥瓣悔丁琌ま祇ミ驹蝶︳夹Τ 琌瓣悔砰╰挡篶structureい篋ノЫ迭琌瓣驹菠闽玒 strategic linkage瓣悔砰╰挡篶琌砰瞣笆瓣驹菠闽玒が笆膀娄い粄 ㄢ眏癸ぃ瓣悔吏挂㎝キ铆﹚伐砰╰玥琌癸耕铆﹚瓣悔Ы埃 瓣悔Ыぇ瓣驹菠闽玒跑てョ瞣笆いユ現郸璶秖い 現戳種醚篈籔筁菌竒喷紇臫膀セ琌癸超盢ㄓ墩 跌癸瓣產〕ㄓㄓ默闽玒絯秆瓣悔丁竒蕾 瞴てе硉祇甶い蹦︽癸秨現郸竒筁刚翴い瓣嘲竒蕾碩Θ 陪ボいぃ度絃钡瞴て瓣悔镣墩纜磕瓣悔穦矪暴 繦帝瞴て簍跑穦ゅて吏挂の单糷いョ礚猭耚叉瞴 て盿ㄓ侥阑ぃ眔ぃ穝穝瓣產﹚籔現郸ヘ夹 羆ㄓ弧戳いユ現郸瞏瞴て奸瑈侥阑臮㎝キ籔祇甶ㄢ ヘ夹蝴铆﹚琌讽玡∕郸程璶σ秖港綡キ┮弧铆﹚溃ち и穌て穌э秨闽龄琌铆﹚い瓣拜肈溃ち琌惠璶铆﹚琌 Й锚铆﹚碞璶癸ぃ琵˙ぃ綞碞 ▆瓣悔吏挂琌瓣ず竒蕾祇甶 膀娄τ竒蕾尿祇甶玥瓣ず現Ы铆﹚闽龄蝴現Ы铆﹚玥玒い現舦 猭┦膀娄よ竒蕾祇甶ぃ度蝴瓣ず铆﹚ョ矗ど瓣ぃ猭 瓣矗ど玥矗蔼瓣悔硚畖㎝キ籔祇甶ㄢ兜ヘ夹ぇ丁闽玒琌㎝キ琌 祇甶玡矗τ祇甶玥琌絋玂㎝キ玂靡 ―キ颗琌い∕ 郸羬程σ喷 矪瞶が┰ц痲籔ヘ夹磷炒иベ挂い竒盽 玥籔郸菠ぇ丁舦颗癸膀セ玥ぃ甧Т郸菠笷瓣產 璶ヘ夹耕Τ紆┦ 弧㎝キ籔祇甶琌讽玡い瓣產程璶ヘ夹 碞琌膀セ玥笷硂ㄢヘ夹玥Τ苦郸菠┦艶笲ノ瞶阶糷 瞷龟竡眎舦舦单阀├礚好ご琌いユ現郸い禸玥 眏秸穝竡瞶阶玥跌琌い發―程蔼瓣產痲筁祘い戈笲ノ 爹 爹. 綡キい瓣ぃす砛睹綡キゅ匡材ㄊチせ ( New. Gerald Chan, York: St. Martin's Press, Inc., 1999 ) , p. 131.. 爹. Har ry Har ding,¨Change and Continuity in Chinese Foreign Policy,〃 vol. 32, no. 2 ( March°April 1983 ) , pp. 16°19; Gerald Chan,. ., p. 59.. PDF 檔案以 "FinePrint pdfFactory Pro" 試用版建立 http://www.fineprint.com. ,.
(7) 驹い穝芠龟筋籔珼驹. 63. 郸菠ㄣ磝搐いユ∕郸いじて疭┦礚钵琌いユ現郸程 螟ぇ矪. い穝芠鹅籔ず瞇 セゅ翴贝癚いㄓ盽矗穝芠ぇ┮玡竊い讽絞碩 ざ残いユ現郸﹚芠Θ籔ユ現郸﹚琌が闽羛 膀娄ㄓ癸瓣悔吏挂粄讽瓣悔墩玻ネ跑てい穝芠Θ瞶阶 莱Τ癸莱ユ瓁ㄆ現郸皌甅セゅ╯い芠翴ヘ ぃ贝癚い瓁ㄆ驹菠τ琌贝╯いユ現郸琌穝芠矗τΤ┮锣 跑刚瓜眖瞶阶籔龟筋だ猂崩耞ゼㄓいユ現郸ǐセ竊盢盡猔贝癚 い穝芠Θ籔ず瞇览だ场だ弧い穝芠瞶阶籔龟筋琌 癚阶﹚竡琌痹瓃穝芠Θ璉春琌だ猂穝芠種琌弧 い穝芠よㄣ砰現郸龟筋. ﹚竡 ㄤ龟琌讽家絢狡馒阀├ 矗程盽瞇籠ぃΤ 琌threat琌╄кvulnerability 碞τē ウㄓ方ㄓ瓣悔ㄓ瓣產ず场琌ㄣ砰琌肩 琌芠ㄆ龟琌み瞶糷粄 芠粄盽癬方 倪fear硂琌ま祇瓣悔丁挂security dilemma 拜肈璶ㄓ方珿 ぃ繧┪┪琌⊿Τ稰谋碞琌 よ瓣ぃ ㄓ方埃ㄓ稰ぇセō龟癐畓琌硑Θ瓣ぃ挡 篶┦ㄓ方瓣癐畓ま祇ㄓю阑硂琌瞷龟竡厩膀セ眎粄瓣悔闽 玒瞷禜ぃ畓ψ眏瓣―玂ゲ斗眖矗どセō龟帝もㄣΤ矫 ﹍眔纞ㄓデ. 穝芠Θ. 璉春. 癸いτē芠鹅籔癸瓣ず籔瓣悔吏挂粄Τ闽眖〕 爹. Bar ry Buzan,¨Is Inter national Security Possible?〃in Ken Booth, ed.,. 爹. Barry Buzan,. ( London: Harper Collins Academic, 1991 ) , pp. 31°55. ( Sussex: Wheatsheaf Books, Ltd., 1983 ) , pp. 73°92. 爹 爹. 秇︵絪瞴て瓣悔チ〕°せ 瓣發―┮蹦惫琁眏瓁ㄤ瓣產粄い篶Θ癸ㄤ― 莱ㄤ瓣產蹦癸莱惫琁程挡狦竒盽琌Θ候眎薄墩ど蔼莱 ( spiral )瓣矗ど 挡狦玱┕┕盿ㄓぃ叫把綷 Robert Jervis, ( Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1976 ). 爹. ぶ瓁瓣悔眖膀セ阀├贺篈秇︵絪瞴て瓣悔き°せ. PDF 檔案以 "FinePrint pdfFactory Pro" 試用版建立 http://www.fineprint.com.
(8) い瓣嘲╯ 材 44 . 64. 材2戳. チ瓣 90 2 る. い戳秨﹍穝芠硋亥Θい畖璓﹛よ弧猭眏秸穝礛琌ㄨ 種陪籔筁ぃボい癸瓣悔吏挂粄瞷跑てョ留い闽現郸盢 秸俱 い穝芠Θ籔瓣悔砰╰挡篶の瓣驹菠闽玒跑てΤ闽瓣悔砰╰挡 篶跑て〕戳默羛ニ秆瓣悔砰╰パㄢ伐ǐ伐暴い〕 ㄓ癸瓣悔吏挂セ耞ゼ碩锣跑粄瞴祇ネ砏家驹┦ ㄌ侣ぃ蔼盢瓣驹菠闽玒跑てよ瞴て奸紇臫 瓣丁痲腐絛瞅癸耎 〕戳い┮矪吏 挂弧琌κㄓ程琿戳ㄏ眔い眔璓竒蕾祇甶 ㏕礛跋 办丁贺壁﹙毙单拜肈ま祇Ы场侥ごΤ┮籇礛τ瓣讽叭ぇぃ驹 ゎ驹τ琌ň絛┪ゎЫ场侥耎 虏ēぇい穝芠 矗璉春璶ㄓ瓣悔吏挂锣驹戳癸候眎ぃ確 緿瑆单い单瓣產┮矗瞶阶侥阑э跑い癸吏挂 耞蝴穝芠弧琌硂妓兵ン硋亥Θ. 穝芠ず甧 ㄓ眖嘲碈砰﹛よ弧猭の厩砃阶帝いぃぶΤ闽驹籔 闽穝弧猭迭よ程盽ǎ琌穝芠Τ芠ミ 砰芠单ぃセず甧玥琌钵―よ獽セゅ盢参ㄏノ穝 芠迭沮嘲厩秇︵だ猂ㄓい癸穝芠弧猭璶 だ贺だ弧 ﹛よ弧猭 い玐闽伐て㎝ミ瓣悔穝羛羘いい ボ穝芠ミ初るい瓣產畊緼チ风らず ニ掉瓁穦酵の〕〕〕る羛瓣罤蔼畃穦祇簍弧 だ哪瓃い 穝芠ミ初眏秸秈驹發―㎝キ籔祇甶琌讽さ肈 瓣莱船斌驹蝴ミそタ瞶瓣悔現獀竒蕾穝眎瓣キ单坝 ㎝キよΑ秆∕瓣悔狠穝芠み琌が獺がキ单宽︽㎝ キ矪き玥瓣が碙舦籔烩Ч俱がぃ獻デがぃ疉ず現キ单が 爹. Robert K. Schaeffer,. ( Lanham : Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc.,. 1997) ; Marie Guehenno,¨The Impact of Globalization on Strategy,〃. vol. 40, no. 4 ( Winter. 1998°99 ) , pp. 5°19畗吹稽瞴てい瓣嘲厩芠翴い瓣嘲╯材 材戳チ瓣る°き 爹. 繤厩硄い瓣瓣產痲だ猂ぱ瑉ぱ瑉チ〕せBonnie Glaser,¨China's Security Perceptions: Interests and Ambitions,〃. , vol. 33, no. 3 ( March 1993) , p. 253.. 爹. Ш庇闽驹秖购だの舱拜肈贝癚瓣悔拜肈╯ㄊい瓣瓣悔拜肈╯┮. 爹. 羛瓣罤福穦某量杠チら厨〕〕〕るら材. せるせ. PDF 檔案以 "FinePrint pdfFactory Pro" 試用版建立 http://www.fineprint.com.
(9) 驹い穝芠龟筋籔珼驹. 65. 膀セい﹛よ弧猭籔ㄈび瓣┮︽ミ初钡眏秸穝 芠ヘ籔驹戳陪跋筳筁瓁ㄆ幅の眏瓁称も琿侣 芠癸玂毁瓣悔礚腊穝船斌驹蝴㎝キ よΑ秆∕狠Θ驹秸い﹛よ穝芠耕帝瓣產丁 Τ驹戳ユ┕篈碞琌┮孔穝瓣產闽玒 菌Ωい玐羛 羘いいビぃ癸кぃ挡幅ぃ皐癸材单玥陪穝瓣 產闽玒籔筁ぃㄤい程闽龄场だぃ挡幅 驹瞶├籔驹戳瓁ㄆ幅程ぃ矪() 瓁ㄆ 幅ㄣΤ安稱寄搭淮颗挡Θ瓁ㄆ栋刮よΑ絋玂が 传ēぇ璝ぶ寄絣挡幅礚種竡礛τ玥⊿Τ皐癸┦膀娄 癸肩硂贺ㄓ场琌ぇ丁拜肈獶 疭﹚材瓣ヘ夹() 瓁ㄆ幅驹菠ヘ夹泥寄┪墓眔瓁ㄆ侥 玥琌磷瓁ㄆ侥() よ猭挡幅蹦琌瓁ㄆよΑ 玥琌ㄌ苦現獀ユ单獶瓁ㄆも琿() 瓁ㄆ幅ㄣΤがΤ 絋┯空玥琌綼帝肪硄坝戳竒パ癸杠仓縩硋˙ミ醚 驹瞶阶眎癸瓣悔侥渡硓筁娩诀秆∕驹 瓣產硓筁瓁ㄆ幅瓜糤暗猭龟悔癸讽ㄆ瓣の闽瓣產τē盽 琌ゼ籜ㄤㄤ甡 厩贝癚がㄌ 眖〕戳秨﹍い厩硋亥瞷皐癸瓣悔薄墩锣跑秸俱穝瓣 產芠翴阶秸眏秸瞴て瓣悔吏挂い莱赣ㄣΤ笆篈芠碞琌弧 Ы跑笆琌盽篈⊿Τ荡癸㎝キ跋办侥┪琌ㄤ硑Θ侥ごぃ磷 ぃゲ礛ま祇驹戳砏家驹瓣悔蔼瞴て薄猵﹚瓣 產ョゲ礛ぃ㎝瓣が瞣硈ヴ瓣產ぃ拜肈常ぃ琌虫 セō拜肈┕┕常ぃ琌虫縒瓣產┮縒秆∕瓣惠 瓣膀セ兵ン 拜肈ぃ琌荡癸耞籔瓣の芠粄 闽瓣產琌㎝瓣產丁琌が獺琌が倪Τ闽パ 驹瓣癸瓣產痲基耞畉钵ま祇瓣悔侥ㄓ方ョ瞷贺ぃ Α埃瓁ㄆ舦单蔼現獀糷拜肈い厩﹚肚参拜肈ぇ 琌癸瓣褐篶Θ窖竒蕾穦ネ篈瑅瓣悔デ竜 单現獀拜肈いΤ厩嘿獶肚参拜肈籔拜肈闽饼睲贰 络睲瓣產琌瞣疉胑馒ョ瞏单 爹. 篶縱穝穝瓣產闽玒チら厨るら材せ祸硓跌い穝 芠А颗阶いァら厨チ瓣せるせら履セ辨и瓣芠跑ての莱現郸秸 俱醚ㄊ材戳羆腹せ. 爹. 繤厩硄い籔ㄈび驹ㄈび瓣產驹菠ǐㄊㄆ. 爹. ぶ瓁玡まゅ°化璣穝瓣產芠猠玭チ. PDF 檔案以 "FinePrint pdfFactory Pro" 試用版建立 http://www.fineprint.com.
(10) い瓣嘲╯ 材 44 . 66. 材2戳. チ瓣 90 2 る. 驹璶絋玂瓣產墩ゲ籔瓣悔玻ネ硈笆蝶︳ō 痲ぇ悔ョぃぃσ納跋の瞴痲碞瓣產糷Ωτē蝴臔ヘ 絋玂尿祇甶承硑ㄑ祇甶㎝キ瓣悔吏挂 埃搭ぶ攫寄ňゎи 龟瞷箇ē莱 祇ネぇ碝―诀┦玂毁痲璶い计厩А眏秸 驹拜肈ㄣΤ狡馒┦跑笆┦蝴┦籔が笆┦单疭借龟瞷 膀娄耎瓣瓣產痲把皍﹁よ侯┦单瞶阶阀├ 眎璶э到い拜肈秆∕瓣悔丁挂ど蔼ゲ斗搭ぶ瓣丁癸к 眖糤籔が獺帝も纔抖跋办璶┦瓣悔暗猭 玥ゲ斗眖把籔瓣悔舱麓坝诀秨﹍眖糷Ω恨笵碻亥秈よΑミ が獺家Α盢ミ膀娄 眏籔瓣の綟瓣產ミね 闽玒搭ぶ侥诀穦 龟〓ず场э硑 玡┮瓃瓣琌璶ㄢ兜琌 稰癸龟眏畓琌篶Θ瓣ぃ嘲厩秇︵癸穝芠 秆睦眏秸瓣┦铆胺籔琌瓣琌莉璓瓣悔碙莉眔㎝キ闽龄驹 戳瞷龟竡旧矗どよΑ驹ぃì瞇籠┮Τ疉の瓣產 拜肈ゲ斗ノ穝蝴埃惠泊瓣悔ぇ瓣ずョ絋玂瓣產 璶ず甧瓣產セō琌秈˙尿祇甶チ舦褐琌˙矗ど琌∕﹚ 瓣琌ì╄咀紇臫璶兜眎莱眖胺ず场帝も龟︽現獀チて竒蕾 蒥初て穦猭獀て ㎝キ籔祇甶ㄢ兜ヘ夹い祇甶莱㎝キ膀娄竒蕾祇甶 ㏕礛瓣矗ど瓣璶ず甧礛τぃ琌场ゲ斗眖ず场韩┏э硑ず场э硑 笆篈筁祘籔驹戳虫眏秸虑パ祑砰矗ど絋玂阀├ゑ硂贺眏 秸笆篈ň縨籔Ч钡瓂穝芠絋拜肈秆∕矗ㄑ跌 à蝴 禬驹 皐癸驹瓣悔薄墩锣跑ぷㄤ琌瞴てㄓ羬い瓁よず场瞷 穝驹菠瞶阶 ョ跌琌穝芠弧猭パい瓁踌▆㎝ 爹. 繤厩硄驹い瓣癸驹菠瞷瓣悔闽玒ㄊき材戳よ 讽玡瓣悔墩瞷瓣悔闽玒ㄊき材戳°せ. 爹. 發―セō跌瓣ㄓ方攫ミ籔瓣寄癸闽玒礚丁は筁ㄓ跑Θ瓣 寄篶Θ癸瓣ど蔼┘丁寄癸薄墩把綷ぶ瓁玡まゅきき. 爹. 瞴て兵ン瓣悔瓁ㄆゅ篕http://web.foshan.gd.cn/hawk/Digest/d4.htm . 爹. Bonnie S. Glaser,¨China's Security Per ceptions: Interests and Ambitions,〃. 爹. 秇︵攫ミぇユ瓣產芠罙辨材戳るら. ., pp. 252°271.. 爹. Andr ew Scobell,¨Chinese A rmy Building in the Era of Jiang Zemin,〃. ( A ugust 2000 ) ,. p p. 8°10; Charles F. Haw kins,¨The Four Futur es: Competing Schools of Military Thought inside the PLA,〃 <http :// taiwansecurity.org/IS/IS-0300-Hawkins.htm>, Mar ch 2000; Pomfret,¨China Ponders New Rules of Unr estricted War,〃 1999, p. A1.. PDF 檔案以 "FinePrint pdfFactory Pro" 試用版建立 http://www.fineprint.com. John. , A ugust 8,.
(11) 驹い穝芠龟筋籔珼驹. 67. 答罦帝禬驹 蒥ぇ瓣ず荐疨闽猔 璉春璶琌猧芖驹籔║驹い瓣甶瞷佩м秖い 癸畓墩薄猵穒甅穝驹菠┮孔禬驹琌禬 禫每芚籔驹粄ゼㄓ驹Α莱ぃゲ礛玗瓁ㄆ糷砛 ㄤ獶瓁ㄆΑいまノ砛い瓣ρ瓁ㄆ稱籔郸菠钩琌甝猭单眎 ゴぃ癸嘿驹碞琌畓瓣籔眏瓣筁┷ぃ莱繦帝禬眏˙秸癬籖を 緼狥┮弧ゴиゴи炒眏瓣┮砞伴甅讽いτ琌莱т 癸も畓翴癸よΤ癸寄よぃよΑ籔寄よ耕秖笷璓秤ヘ 夹セは琈琌い癸瓣眏瓁籔мΤ瞏礚稰疭 眏秸斑Τ┷い贺ぃ驹篈珹┢竡单瘆胊郸 菠ㄤい程眏秸戈癟驹Τ纞瓣瓁ㄆ 瓃贺癸芠秆睦眏秸翴㏕礛Τ畉钵ㄤ祇翴癸 跑笆ゲ斗ノ穝跌偿ㄓ肚参い程跌拜肈砰τē禬驹瞶阶 琌妮瓁よ程矗ㄓ贺瘆┦驹菠ヘ玡ごゼΘ瑈 セゅ╯翴 罙秆穝芠癸いユ現郸紇臫瓁よ驹菠籔いず场э硑场だ锚 絞碩盢ぃ琌セゅ贝癚翴玡兜弧猭琌セゅ盢癚阶璶ず甧俱砰 τē沮嘲厩繤厩硄弧猭穝芠籔驹戳芠畉钵 璶瞷 1. 癸﹚ぃ秖capability vs.笆诀intention碞 场ㄓ籔闽阀├琌玒瓣蝶︳琌 璶夹驹眏秸龟癸ゑぃキ颗琌璶ㄓ方眏秸瓣悔砰╰ 挡篶┦琌∕﹚瓣琌璶驹玥跌笆诀 瓣現郸琌ㄣΤ┦琌瓣琌羬拜肈惠σ秖 2. 癸膀娄ぃ驹玂毁荡癸龟纔墩驹 パが苦闽玒糤瓣痲ま祇驹狠诀瞯癸砆╄綪碝― 痲搭ぶ 3. 蝴臔よΑぃ驹パ眏秸龟纔墩ぷㄤ琌瓁纔墩珿 瓣礚ぃ耎瓁称┪籔瓣挡幅笷玂毁ヘ礛τ驹 眏秸琌パ瓣丁痲珿耎瓣丁痲Θ莉眔 玂毁程ㄎよΑ 穝芠钡瞶阶弧猭眎痲癸玂靡ゑ瓁ㄆ龟 璶 ミ穝芠膀娄瓣丁ㄣΤ痲が獺ヴ籔眔 竒蕾祇甶耕ぇ驹戳┮篋ノ瓁ㄆ纔墩瓁ㄆ幅Τ蝴跋籔 爹. 踌▆答罦禬驹⌒癸瞴て驹籔驹猭稱﹚ㄊ秆瓁ゅ美. 爹. Andrew Scobell,¨Chinese Army Bulding in the Era of Jiang Zemin,〃. 爹. 繤厩硄瓣臦舦籔い瓣ぱ瑉ぱ瑉チ〕〕〕〕°〕. ., pp. 8°10.. 爹. 繤厩硄い籔ㄈび驹ㄈび瓣產驹菠ǐ. PDF 檔案以 "FinePrint pdfFactory Pro" 試用版建立 http://www.fineprint.com.
(12) い瓣嘲╯ 材 44 . 68. 材2戳. チ瓣 90 2 る. 铆﹚竒蕾祇甶ㄏ眔瓣が苦祘糤祇笆驹Θセ莉斌驹蝴 瓣悔㎝キ籔秨承诀 驹い㏕礛竒э跑癸吏挂粄暴癸瓣產痲﹚ 玱ゼ玻ネび跑て沮瓣厩だ吹㈱David Finkelstein弧猭ゼㄓ き丁い瓣產い祘ヘ夹籔筁膀セ琌畉礚碭璶Τ 兜舦瞷ての铆﹚ ―キ颗琌いユ翴 璶ご∕瓣ず籔瓣悔吏挂跑て碞琌玡┮弧瓣悔 讽瓣悔吏挂膥尿矪癸㎝坑薄墩瞷て礚好盢琌璶ヘ夹暴璝瞷 肚参芠翴舦玥盢Θいユ程璶惠矫ヘ夹ㄢ兜ヘ夹 セ借琌Τ侥舦颗盓淮盓盢∕蝴キ颗铆﹚. い癸穝芠龟筋 綡キ矗㎝キ籔祇甶阶秸㎝キ籔祇甶ㄢヘ夹ぇ丁程琌 粄﹚瓣悔吏挂琌㎝キ珿祇甶纔驹瓣悔砰╰绰伐て祇甶 竒蕾跋办竡砍癬м瓣膀娄芠├Θ奸瑈い㏕礛ゼ秸俱㎝ キ籔祇甶瓣產程蔼ヘ夹暴ㄤみ耕筁瞷跑て弧纔抖 讽玡い琌祇甶传㎝キ暴絋玂祇甶玥ゲ斗蝴㎝キ瓣悔吏挂碞琌弧 驹穝芠┦瞷ㄢよ琌祇甶传眔㎝キ琌㎝キ 传㎝キ祇甶耕筁眏秸郸菠┦strategic種 祇甶传㎝キ膀セ琌沮舦舦肚参蝴盢籔 龟本筥peace through strengthぇ蝴么埃瓣悔吏挂絯㎝ぇセō龟 琌程璶玂靡瓣眏搭ぶㄓ琌驹籔筁ぃ ぇ矪癸龟﹚竡糴約驹蝴眏瓁琌瓣琌局Τ舦 斑夹τ驹竒蕾籔м矗ど琌蝴瓁ㄆ纞膀娄瓣 產痲镣じて矗どよΑョぃ狠㎝キ传㎝キ璶瞷郸 菠笲ノ眏秸㎝キよΑ秆∕瓣悔狠篈传瓣癸 ぶ瓣悔ぃ笆攫寄ぃ籹硑陈沸ぃ眏繷ま癬瓣зみ綡 キ命緄扁Τ┮郸菠孔ㄤい弘盆 眖〕い凹ユ現郸いぃ螟诡谋ㄤ穝芠蝴瞏ㄨ紇臫 珹蝴ぃ挡幅縒ミユ現郸 眏籔瓣ユ┕崩︽官︸ユ 伏 爹. David Finkelstein,¨China's National Military Strategy,〃in Mulvenon and Yang, eds.,. 爹. Mel Gurtov and Byong-Moo Hwang,. , pp. 103°107. ( Boulder:. L ynne Rienner Publishers, Inc., 1998 ) , p. 7. 爹. Τ紌い縒ミユ現郸尿籔簍跑い瓣嘲╯材材せ戳チ瓣 せる°. 爹. Τ紌い瓣ユい瓣嘲╯材材戳チ瓣るき° せ. PDF 檔案以 "FinePrint pdfFactory Pro" 試用版建立 http://www.fineprint.com.
(13) 驹い穝芠龟筋籔珼驹. 69. 綟現郸の縩伐把籔跋办籔瞴瓣悔舱麓笆ぃ耞喘羛瓣秆∕侥猭 ┦诀ㄤいΤ场だ現郸琌┑尿〕场だ玥琌沮穝 芠呸胯崩璴ㄓ穝よ 縒ミ㎝キユ現郸瘤琌いㄓ︽現郸矗ぇ 玒抖莱瞴て镣墩玻秈驹縒ミユ現郸い璶 弘ぃ挡幅玥Θ辅龟穝芠翴籔瓣闽玒э到珹癸闽玒 矗ど伏綟現郸の把籔娩舱麓孔琌〕いユだ锣 跑琌讽玡瓣悔丁瞶阶ㄣ砰龟筋刚瓜㎝キねよΑ秸秆瓣 丁ぃ痲侥钡驹瓣產痲蝴て秆∕侥よΑじて膀セ瞶 ├眏瓣闽玒い传竒蕾祇甶籔铆﹚璶痲 籔秅娩瓣產э到闽 玒璓秆∕戳ㄓ耑い娩拜肈钡眖娩诀坝秆∕侥家 Α眏てい㎝キ吏挂侯ēぇ癸いτē讽玡程璶玥琌祇 甶蝴㎝キ玥琌皌祇甶ヘ夹郸菠笲ノ翴ぃ攫寄珹ぃ挡幅 籔瓣ね秨甶籔瓣膀珹伏綟秆∕娩拜肈既懒竚 舦某の瓣悔穦ш簍縩伐à︹矗どセō瓣珹把籔娩 诀㎝キ传㎝キ郸菠笲ノㄆ龟絋ǎㄣ砰Θ 侯┮瓃瞶阶絋い戳ユ∕郸い祇揣ノぶ﹛よ弧 猭い陪诡谋いㄏノ㎝キ单闽龄┦迭稪いぇ┮钡 瞶阶ㄣ砰辅龟現郸程璶瞴て奸瑈礚猭 ╄咀竒筁刚翴э秨い竒蕾眔Θ狦璶瓣 悔吏挂膥尿蝴㎝キ铆﹚ヘ玡祇甶硉龟瞷てどΘ瓣悔眏舦ヘ夹 盢ら蝴么诀程璶ご瓣丁琌が獺 璝瓣悔丁が獺珼驹虫よТぃい讽玡羬篶 Θ癸い穝芠腨甿珼驹. 讽玡い羬珼驹籔莱ぇ笵 鲸恨い﹛よ弧猭眏秸驹瓣悔Ы墩ぃま祇驹 ㎝キ籔祇甶ㄌ侣琌瓣秸暴ぃびキ跋┦籔獶肚参侥 ㄌ侣繦帝竒蕾祇甶い侯瓣碩矗ど癸瓣悔ㄆ叭把籔ら痲縩伐 禫ㄓ禫辨ш簍籔瓣嘿瓣悔à︹よい龟ど癸跋办┪瞴挡 篶ョ癸硑Θ紇臫〕戳瓣瓣ず瞷い瓣阶弧猭 爹. Τ紌い瓣ユ玡まゅ. 爹. い瓣阶璶阶秸把綷Sam uel P. Huntington, ( New York: Simon & Schuster, 1996 ) ; Richard Bernstein and Ross H. Munro, ( New York: Alfred Knopf, 1997) ; Caspar Weinberger and Peter Schweizer, ( Regnery Publishing, 1997 ) . 赋ミゅい瞴驹菠籔い瓣阶い瓣 嘲╯材材戳チ瓣きる°せ. PDF 檔案以 "FinePrint pdfFactory Pro" 試用版建立 http://www.fineprint.com.
(14) い瓣嘲╯ 材 44 . 70. 材2戳. チ瓣 90 2 る. 癸莱ら痲盪癬い瓣ㄓ瓣琌阶ぃヰ某肈 ㄈび瓣癸い盪癬ョ╆帝紐尺把篈碞琘贺祘τēい㏕礛戳 鲸еΘ痷タ瓣︸繦τㄓ拜肈玥琌眏舦砍癬癸瓣悔砰╰ 挡篶瓣驹菠闽玒盢硑Θ侥阑㎝キ瓣悔吏挂セ琌い﹚瓣 產祇甶郸菠兜玡矗さ玥Θい癸郸菠い兜璶ヘ夹 鲸恨いㄓ嘿瓣悔墩〕ソ戳硈﹃ㄆン 祇甶ㄏ眔いず场癸瓣悔墩耞瞷だ猍い㏕礛ゼэ斌穝 芠眎阁穝ㄨいㄆ龟タ矪琿篘戳琌瞷現 郸秸俱盢琌惠盞ち芠诡翴セ竊盢だ猂ㄓい羬珼驹の 莱薄墩跑てい現郸琌瞷锣ч. 讽玡い璶珼驹 い矗穝芠㏕礛い钡瓣悔丁瞶阶琌い癸讽瓣 悔墩癸い程Τ∕郸玻硂兜弧猭膀セ安砞驹 瓣蝴э跑癸驹倪の祇甶痲ㄏ眔瓣盢讽祘 Τ┮竊碞琌弧い粄驹ぇ┮Τ┕瓣斌 驹蝴籔暗猭暴癸硂兜膀セ安砞いㄓ禫ㄓ禫ぃ贾芠ㄤい闽龄 瓣眖せ瓣籔らセ穝璹ら玂﹚ㄓ瓣 某篶驹跋紆ň縨砰╰TMD籔瓣紆ň縨砰╰NMDㄢ紆ň矫╰参 眖いà秆弄驹癸暗猭矗舦蔼舦 弧猭猌箇玭吹┰ひず現琌きる粇い緉玭吹┰ひㄏ繻 癸い硑Θ腨侥阑虏ēぇ讽玡い┮羬珼驹璶Τ ら羛幅瓣某ミ TMD 籔 NMD ㄢň矫呼の﹁よ舦蔼舦 眎 陪瓃兜珼驹籔瓣Τ闽弧瓣縒臦琌讽玡い 程璶ㄓ方ぷㄤ琌い癸瓣磅種ミ TMD 籔 NMD ╰参程稰好碽硂 よい闽ち璶よ 琌癸芖拜肈紇臫盢芖甽 TMD璸礶ボい癸芖纞盢珼驹種瓣拜肈Τ 箇種瓜籔ス盢芖礚钵盢糤芖矫Τ丁钡躬纘芖ǐ 縒ノτ芖スǐ縒盢篶Θ癸いず场ㄏ眔い ず场ぶ计チ壁だ吊拜肈跑眔狡てㄤΩTMDミ癸狥ㄈ挡篶ョ盢硑 Θ侥阑瓣眎篶 TMD 砰╰琌ňゎ龙硂摸┮孔瑈猐瓣產 癸いτē龙ゼ琵瓣ゲ斗ノ炳蔓禣 ㏄彻ミ硂或甅ň矫砰╰瓣羭笆瞏い倪琵い螟ぃ绰ら 羛も琌瞅棒い墩耎眎硂よσ材瓣セ篶NMD ╰参 爹. Wade L. Huntley and Robert Brown,¨Missile Defense and China,〃 the web, by Nautilus Institute) , vol. 6, no. 3 ( January 2001 ) .. PDF 檔案以 "FinePrint pdfFactory Pro" 試用版建立 http://www.fineprint.com. (On.
(15) 驹い穝芠龟筋籔珼驹. 71. ㏕礛セ種矫礛τ讽玡瓣瓁猌竟よΤ荡癸纔墩璝ň縨╰参 眏礚钵糤瓣癸現郸紆┦珹芖拜肈ず碞い秆弄瓣發 ―荡癸笆甶瞷瓣發―虫伐て縒臦偿みㄏいョゲ斗眏セ ō瓁瓣悔丁沧盢甶秨猧猌竟膙辽畕礛籹硑礚孔挂拜肈 ら挡幅拜肈癸狥ㄈ挡篶秸俱紇臫筪い礛ぃ贾ǎ硂兜祇 甶硂籔い饼ㄈ瑆ш簍镑秖à︹種瓜墩ゲ瞷ベョゲ盢э跑い 癸拜肈芠翴ら挡幅璝 TMD ň臔呈癸い硑Θ盢 ㄏいぃ眔ぃミ癸ぉは眖絫現獀àㄓ狥ㄈ琌い┮程 闽猔跋办いョΤ跋办丁ш簍眏瓣à︹種腀らセ瓁ㄆ矗ど癸い 礛Τ▇璉稰谋ら挡幅拜肈ョ籔芖拜肈瞣硈玂兵いら セ嘿秅娩Τㄆ絛瞅籠芖甽眖いà秆弄礚钵琌癸い舦 钡珼芣珿い跌らセ瓁ㄆà︹矗ど琌い瓣参肩 癸﹁よ瓣產丁舦蔼舦パ玭吹┰ひ暗猭 い粄瓣悔穝疉竡驹瓣丁拜肈闽 絫玭吹┰ひ籔い瓣嘲ごΤ琿禯瞒いは癸琌瓣臦舦纔墩疉 瓣ず現璝ぃゎ斑ら盢礚猭Τ竊瓣墩よい 踞み硂贺弧暗猭盢Θ瓣悔丁炊筂钡ㄒ护ㄏいず场ぶ计チ壁珹 芖硉だ吊ス耎床Θぶ计チ壁だ吊拜肈癸いず场墩ゲ硑Θ腨 紇臫簍跑Θ穦拜肈盢ㄏいゲ斗ミ秆∕癸い讽玡絃ガЫ盢 Θ侥阑. 莱ぇ笵 舦籔ネ琌瓣蔼礚ヘ夹癸いτē琌獽瓣悔吏挂 程铆﹚〕戳癸舦拜肈いミ初﹍沧癸いτē盢 祇甶瓣產璶ヘ夹㎝笷ヘㄤ龟琌︽ぃ局Τ眏瓣 纞玍㎝龟瞷瓣產ヘ夹程Τㄣ碞琌弧龟矗ど琌瓣產莉 籔蝴瓣ず穦﹚膀娄埃縩伐矗ど┮孔侯瓣ぇ絋玂 搭ぶì瘆胊贺綡キ〕ソ戳 莱ㄓ﹁よ瓣產眏狹腐矗命緄扁玥ㄤ弘ぃ笆籹硑狠 獽蝴▆祇甶吏挂珿俱砰τēい現郸琌吏露ㄢよガЫ 玥よ縩伐矗ど侯瓣眖竒蕾矗ど俱砰瓁眏て 郸菠よ玥琌宽︽命緄扁玥犁硑㎝坑瓣悔吏挂い矗穝芠 ㄆ龟笆┻到種い承硑▆祇甶吏挂 硂妓郸菠籔ヘ夹璹﹚〕玡戳膀セ琌讽抖 繦帝い粄瓣悔吏挂跑眔禫ㄓ禫繧碿いら痲稰Τ秸俱Τ郸 爹. ら矗ど驹. い跌参い瓣厨チ瓣るら瓣悔. PDF 檔案以 "FinePrint pdfFactory Pro" 試用版建立 http://www.fineprint.com.
(16) い瓣嘲╯ 材 44 . 72. 材2戳. チ瓣 90 2 る. 菠ゲ璶眖いㄓ诡谋い癸讽玡珼驹現 郸稬碩秸俱璶瞷ㄢよ琌眏籔玐霉吹驹菠闽玒 琌縩伐矗ど驹. 眏籔玐霉吹驹菠闽玒 い眖せ〕ソ戳秨﹍籔默羛闽玒ら痲碿てㄢ瓣闽玒跑秸ョ玃ㄏ い过┏э跑筁種醚篈旧癸現郸蝴驹癸闽玒琌い 癸闽玒いぇ籔玐霉吹闽玒祇甶ㄆ龟瞏い闽玒祇甶 い籔瓣闽玒ど放ぇ悔玐霉吹いユ璶┦はぇ眖 〕い戳秨﹍パい闽玒縤揽糤籔玐霉吹闽玒繦ぇ痲荐 蹈玐霉吹癸い璶┦璶Τよ琌は臦羛癸禜 琌矗ど驹猌竟籔м砃矗ㄑ玥琌籔玐霉吹蝴▆闽玒Τ 絋玂娩磷炒浮璉寄祣挂 眖い玐ㄢ瓣闽玒祇甶いョ祇瞷讽ㄤい瓣瓣眏瓣癸ō 臮納ど蔼碞琌弧い玐ㄢ瓣常粄セ瓣┕┕琌癸よ店畓 τぃ琌眏Τ玂毁 〕い籔玐霉吹羬腨祇甶拜肈 ㄓㄓ瓣らセら痲腨甿礛玃ㄏㄢ瓣闽玒眏硂贺挡 弧琌贺驹菠籈strategic convergence 砛瓣悔拜肈ㄢ瓣が羘 穿耑蛮よ娩某繦帝ㄢ瓣闽玒ど放璓秆∕┘丁蔼糷が笆 繵羉玐霉吹猌竟蹦潦笆琌ま癬瓣悔炊筂闽猔 鲸恨蛮よ嘿ㄢ瓣 闽玒矗ど荡獶驹戳瓁ㄆ幅闽玒τ琌ぃ皐癸材瓣ぃ癸к獶挡幅 穝瓣產闽玒 ㄢ瓣闽玒э到㊣莱い闽玒跑て抖墩 爹. Mark Burles,¨Chinese Policy Toward Russia and Central Asian Republics,〃<http://www.rand. org/publications/MR/MR1045/>; 畗釜皑秤篴阁驹菠о拒⌒. い玐闽玒龟魁ㄊ. 穝地Τ紌驹戳い玐闽玒⌒眖いà芠诡拜肈籔╯ら ゅ材る腹るき°きΤ紌い縒ミユ現郸 尿籔锣跑° 爹. Nicholas Ber ry,¨China and Russia Together: Hedging on the Hegemon,〃The CDI A sia For um Featur ed Article, December 15, 2000 <http://www.cdi.org/asia/fa121500.html>.. 爹. 兢ね ( Andrew J. Nathan)嘲眑Robert S. Ross帝亩籔璸い瓣碝 驹菠 (. )沉バ. チ瓣〕 爹. Rajan Menon,¨The Strategic Convergence Between Russia and China,〃. , vol. 39, no. 2. ( Summ er 1997) , p. 115; A lexander V. Nemets and John L. Scherer,¨The Emerging Sino-Russian A xis,〃 爹. ( June 2000) , pp. 72°77.. いㄓ–玐霉吹蹦潦猌竟碭玐霉吹猌竟綪Θ把綷琍畄ら厨〕〕〕る ら材 A せ. 爹. 篶縱穝穝瓣產闽玒チら厨るら材せい玐る帽伏綟ね 兵い瓣厨チ瓣るら嘲穝籇. PDF 檔案以 "FinePrint pdfFactory Pro" 試用版建立 http://www.fineprint.com.
(17) 驹い穝芠龟筋籔珼驹. 73. friendship of convenience ㄢ瓣硂ㄢㄓが笆繵羉籔糷Ωぇ蔼獽 ゼ笷痷タ瓁ㄆ幅˙非幅闽玒嘿ぃ筁. 縩伐矗. 驹. 眖ㄓ侯σ秖窥籔丁单い獽瓣蹦潦 猌竟紆斑ㄒ璶矗ど驹よΑ蹦潦癸禜璶ㄓ玐霉吹硂碭 ㄓい眖玐霉吹潦禦计琜默穇驹矮诀秈癸紆皌竚ら紆 瞷臱硋磨膀肩弗Ν戳い箇牡诀のは紆╰参单 玐霉吹﹟ 籔い笷Θㄤよ瓁ㄆいミい㎝キび矗 ㄑい蛮Α祇甮は磨旧紆肩弗馋φ猳筿笆肩弗驹诀筿笷ぱ絬单 单玐霉吹ョタσ納種いㄏノ玐籹瞴旧矫琍╰参GLONASS 埃玐霉吹蹦潦ぇいョ縩伐︹单猌竟籹硑瓣酵睰潦闽猌竟┪ 瓁ㄆ砞琁㏕礛Τ弧猭ぃ恨瓣い常妓穦秖耎ㄤ猌 竟驹称程瓣瓣ň场玱Τ厨璝瓣斌瓣紆ň縨╰参璸礶い 瓁Θ硉盢搭絯砛 ǎい眏矗ど驹璶ヘ琌は瓣 瓁ㄆ 耞ど蔼Τ闽夹琌い瓁禣箇衡糤さい﹛よそ ガ瓁禣や糤碩蔼笷κだぇ翴 ㄓ程蔼ま癬瓣悔丁蔼闽 猔粄い龟悔禣莱ゑそガ计蔼籔祇蹦潦の癸瓣ň穨 干禟留┦瓁禣场だそ秨计いセぃㄓ い瓣ず硄砯勘等 瞯癸筁碭蔼硄勘瞯さ瓁禣荡癸糤碩陪眔佩いセō 秆睦琌瓁ㄆЫ墩祇ネ跑て莱蔼м兵ンň矫驹惠璶ゲ斗 睰潦蔼м猌竟箇非称孔Ы墩跑て﹁よ盡產А㎝瓣非 称膚紆ň縨╰参玡粇い緉玭吹┰ひㄏ繻ㄆンのい癸参候 爹. ¨Russia and China: Friendship of Convenience?〃BBC News, December 9, 1999. <http://news. bbc.com. uk /h1/english/word/europe/newsd-556000/556925.stm>.. 爹. Nicholas Berry,¨China's Ar ms Purchases Reveal Fundam ental Interests, 〃The CDI Asia For um Featur ed Article, March 5, 2001. < http://www.cdi.org/asia/fa030501.htm l>.. 爹. 玐扳い甅驹诀筿笷ぱ絬い瓣厨チ瓣るら嘲穝籇キひ 玐い皋迷瓁扳渺い瓣厨チ瓣るら嘲穝籇. 爹. David E. Mosher, Lowell H. Schwartz,¨The China and Nuclear Reunion Is Only a Motive Away,〃. 爹. ス猌脓Τは阑⌒い瓣货ň矫╰参琍畄ら厨るきら材 A . , Feb. 25, 2001. <http://taiwansecurity.org/News/2001/LAT-022501.htm >. 爹 爹. いさ瓁禣糤 17.7 い瓣厨チ瓣るせら嘲穝籇 John Pomfret,¨China Plans Major Boost in Spending for Military,〃 2001; 蒕贾竡い耎瓁禣. , March 6,. 莱蔼м驹惠璶い瓣厨チ瓣るら嘲穝籇. PDF 檔案以 "FinePrint pdfFactory Pro" 試用版建立 http://www.fineprint.com.
(18) い瓣嘲╯ 材 44 . 74. 材2戳. チ瓣 90 2 る. 稰ど蔼Τ闽 瓣瓁ㄆ盡產ī风Nicholas Berry玥い瓁潦ヘ琌辨眔 瓁ㄆ纔墩ňゎ縒 い竒砰粄饼参芖籔瓣璉驹┦ど 蔼珿いゲ斗眏非称糤祘紆盢琌い盢ヘ夹瓣璶夹瞷 顶琿いごぃìネ玻ì镑瞷て猌竟珿いぃ穦淮珼币驹狠竒蕾矗どご 讽玡程璶ㄆ –讽笿籔瓣闽玒瞷毁锚瓁よ眏祑墩繦ぇど蔼瓁 禣耎糤秆弄Θ秆瓁墩Ё兜夹瓣悔吏挂玥琌∕﹚瓣ず╰龟 璶场兵ン镑瓁禣や糤籔尿祇甶ぇ丁眔キ颗ぃ 碾祇甶玡矗鲸耎瓁称琌讽玡いず场璶阶翴 把籔娩诀ョいㄓ現郸锣跑筁い眏秸蛮娩闽 玒纔娩闽玒驹い縩伐把籔瓣悔娩舱麓笆ヘ 虑パ把籔祇揣い瓣à︹程沧ヘ夹ご旧瓣悔穝ミ ē娩诀猭┦膀娄龟饼虑籹硑瓣悔林阶溃程沧ヘご痰瓣縒 臦瓜垦. 挡. 阶. 矗ど瓁ㄆ驹絋玂暗猭玒瞷龟竡蝴┮紇臫礛τ璶笷 矗ど驹ヘ夹玥ゲ斗Τ绊眏竒蕾龟祇甶竒蕾籔蒥初钡瓂 钡瞴て阀├孔穝パ竡┮芠翴ㄢ瞶阶讽玡い ユいАΤ祇揣ノ琌瞷龟竡砰穝パ竡ノ 〕い戳癬い喘穝芠阀├龟㊣莱瞴て奸瑈の眖稼瑆 τのㄈ瑆瓣┮ē阀├眏秸が┦籔耎床狦礛τい 膀セ瓣產痲舦瞷て铆﹚ゼ穝芠矗τΤ┮ э跑㎝キ籔祇甶ごい程璶瓣產祇甶ヘ夹弧穝芠琌い 癸讽玡瓣悔吏挂粄玻ウ琌瓣悔丁砍癬穝奸い钡 瞴て祇甶镣墩ョゲ斗钡瓣悔丁穝奸穝芠琌い笷 程沧玥贺郸菠笲ノ㎝キ传㎝キい承硑Τ祇甶 瓣悔吏挂. 爹. 畗﹟搂﹁よ盡產い糤瓁禣 σ納参惠璶い瓣厨チ瓣るら嘲穝籇 John Pom fret,¨China Plans Major Boost in Spending for Military,〃. 爹. Nicholas Ber ry,¨China's Arms Purchases Reveal Fundamental Interests,〃 產い羭瓁潦 Nicholas Ber ry,. ., 糂瓣盡. 種眔纔墩い瓣厨チ瓣るら嘲穝籇蒕贾竡. 嘲盡產い糤瓁禣 爹. .. 種ň縒い瓣厨チ瓣るら嘲穝籇 .; 糂瓣盡產い羭瓁潦. 種眔纔墩玡まゅ. PDF 檔案以 "FinePrint pdfFactory Pro" 試用版建立 http://www.fineprint.com.
(19) 驹い穝芠龟筋籔珼驹. 75. 礛τい盪癬い眏舦籔瓣膙闽玒墩ゲぃ磷 禫ㄓ禫縀疨 い瓣阶矗琌材笵牡癟ら眏て瓁ㄆ幅玥琌瓣 驹蝴ㄣ砰甶瞷矗驹跋紆ň縨砰╰籔瓣紆ň縨砰╰ 篶稱玥琌笻は瓣悔︽瓣癸い肩ら痲ど蔼 疊║驹ㄏい絋﹚驹瓣悔璶ベㄓ 瓣嘿臦籔瓣は臦 い籔瓣集揽ぃ耞糤〕戳瓣悔㎝秆猑玱ら跑秸瓣驹 種醚糤眏猌竟耎床硉瓣秨﹍珺舦驹蝴ㄏ瓣悔 镣螟㎝筁耕瓣悔猑Τ確驹格禜い癸ゼㄓ 瓣悔驹菠吏挂猭耕筁镣磀芠 籔瓣挡篶肩集揽 ぃ磷TMDNMDら挡幅单薄墩祇甶盢ㄏ跋办拜肈ど蔼い 芖拜肈辈跋Ы场驹┦タ硋亥ど硂贺薄癸ㄓ瓣 ら痲ど蔼瓁ㄆ眏秸㎝キ穝芠瞋碵薄腀腹獶肚参 拜肈竒蕾ㄆ吏玂单現獀い俱砰ユ∕郸い璶┦Τ硋亥 镣墩穝芠瞶阶讽玡瓣悔吏挂羬腨珼驹 眖い戳現郸秸俱狠い眏籔玐霉吹闽玒碩矗蔼瓁禣籔 猌竟蹦潦縩伐把籔瓣悔舱麓笆跌琌皐癸ㄓ瓣瓁ㄆど蔼 莱惫琁い驹菠肚参Τ兜疭紉眏秸ň縨ゑ秤璶眔發― 玥ミぃ毖ぇ 玂ぃ毖琌程膀セ璶―翴琌璶ъ玥籔郸 菠ぇ丁眖闽玒玥琌ぃ穦淮э跑郸菠玥Τ紆┦〕戳秨 ﹍い瘤礛纯タミ初矗瞶阶膀娄穝芠種瓜犁硑▆ 瓣悔祇甶吏挂暴セ借いごぃ铬叉瞷龟竡や皌龟舦 局Τ舦秈ю癶癸琌鲸恨い﹛よ弧猭ご ゼ跑秸拨澈芠诡いユ現郸ǐ芠ㄤ︽临琌ゑ钮ㄤē璶Action speaks louder than words * 爹. *. *. Denny Roy,¨Hegemon on the Horizon: China's Threat to East Asian Security,〃. ,. vol. 19, no. 1 ( Summer 1994 ) , pp. 149°168; Nicholas D. Kristof,¨The Rise of China,〃 , vol. 72, no. 5 ( Nov./Dec. 1993 ) , pp. 59°62Aaron L. Friedberg,¨Ripe for Rivalry: Prospects for Peace in a Multipolar Asia,〃. , vol. 18, no. 3 ( Winter 1993/94) , pp. 7°10;. Richard K. Betts,¨Wealth, Power, and Instability,〃. , vol. 18, no. 3 ( Winter. 1993/94 ) , pp. 34°77; Randall L. Schweller,¨Managing the Rise of Great Powers: History and Theory,〃in Alastair Iain Johnston and Robert S. Ross, eds., ( New York: Routledge, 1999 ) . 爹. 繤厩硄瓣臦舦籔い瓣せ°. 爹. 繤厩硄瓣臦舦籔い瓣き°せき. 爹. 狶い賧臦硓跌阁い驹菠猌芖厩ネЫせ°. PDF 檔案以 "FinePrint pdfFactory Pro" 試用版建立 http://www.fineprint.com.
(20) 76. い瓣嘲╯ 材 44 . 材2戳. チ瓣 90 2 る. The PRC's New Security View in the Post Cold-War Era: Practices and Challenges. In the era of globalization, international trade has boomed and interdependence has intensified. Since Deng brought in the¨peace and development〃 policy outline, the PRC has opened up its domestic market and fully accepted the rules and norms of globalization. To cultivate a peaceful environment for development, the PRC put economic interests above military and security concerns. In April 1997, the PRC and Russia proposed publicly denounced the cold war mentality and introduced the idea of a¨new security view.〃Emphasizing peace and negotiations for solving conflicts has become the PRC's main foreign policy theme. For the past two years, however, the PRC has faced escalating security threats from the U.S. China's new security view has thus encountered dire challenges. Reactions from the PRC include increased arms purchases and closer alignment with Russia. A new Cold war seems to be in the making. Doubtful is if the PRC's idea of a new security view will be able to continue. How the PRC's foreign policies might change in the future deserve close attention. : PRC's foreign policy; new security view; globalization; cooperative security. PDF 檔案以 "FinePrint pdfFactory Pro" 試用版建立 http://www.fineprint.com.
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