攻勢現實主義與新自由制度主義的交鋒：2000-2008年的美韓關係 - 政大學術集成

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(1)! !. ! ! ! !. ㈻㊫學. •‧ 國. 立立. 政治大. 2000-2008. •‧. sit. y. Nat. The Confrontation of Offensive Realism and er. io. Neoliberal Institutionalism: the U.S.-South Korea al. n. iv n C h e n g c2000 Relations from h i U to 2008. ! ! ! !. !.

(2) ! (U.S.–South Korea Alliance) 2000. 2008. ! ! ! !. 立立. Abstract 治政大. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. In 1945, the U.S. defeated Japan. The Korean peninsula was liberated from Japanese colonization at the end of World War II. However, the confrontation between the U.S. and the Soviet Union left two Koreas separated by the Demilitarized Zone from the Cold War to the present. In addition, based on the Mutual Defense Treaty Between the United States of America and the Republic of Korea, the U.S.–South Korea Alliance was established. During the Cold War and Post Cold War era, the U.S.-South Korea relations faced hard times, but the alliance remained strong. When George W. Bush became the president of the U.S. in the year 2000, his hardline policy toward North Korea collided with South Korea’s Sunshine Policy, which was made by the president Kim Dae-jung. These different policies toward the North caused tensions to the U.S.-South Korea relations. Then the re-elected Bush continued hardline policy against North Korea, but South Korea’s new president—Roh Moo-hyun—decided to inherit the sunshine policy and develop Peace and Prosperity Policy. Washington and Seoul still failed to reach a consensus on how to deal with Pyongyang. The U.S.-South Korea relations continued to fluctuate until 2008. This study tries to analyze the U.S. policy toward North Korea through offensive realism and examine South Korean engagement policy through neoliberal institutionalism from 2000 to 2008. Besides, this thesis also considers exogenous factors such as China, Japan, and Russia, trying to explain the inconstancy of the U.S.-South Korea relations.. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i Un. v.

(3) ····························································1 ····························································5 ·····································································9 ···································································15 ··························································16. !. ······················18. 立立. 治政 ·················································27 大. ·················································39. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. ·········································································48. •‧. io. sit. y. Nat. ·················································63. al. ··································93. iv n C ·········································································99 hengchi U n. !. ·············50. er. !. ···································101. ·························································108 ·············································117. !. ········································································124. ············································································126. !. ···································································132.

(4) ···············································································133. ! ······················································································147. ! ! ! 2—1. ································································40. 2—2. ····················································47. 3—1 1989-2002. 立立. 3—2. ·························86. ·······································89. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. 3—3 2003-2007. sit er. al. n. 2—1. io. 1—1. y. Nat. ! ! ! !. 政治 ·······································78 大. Ch. — iv. ··············5. Un e n g c h i········································38. 3—1. ········································65. 3—2. ····························66. 3—3. ··································73. 3—4 1989-2002. ····································77. 3—5 1989-2002. ····································77. 3—6. ········································85. 3—7 2003-2007. ····································88. 3—8 2003-2007. ····································88. 4—1. ············································114.

(5) ! !. 立立. 政治大 1950. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學 y. sit. io. n. al. er. 1. . Nat. Alliance). (U.S.–South Korea. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. !. 1!. 1953 and the Republic of Korea). (Mutual Defense Treaty Between the United States of America. 1998 184. !1.

(6) 2 . 1977. (Jimmy Earl. Carter). 4 3. 5. (Ronald Wilson Reagan). . 4 . 1990 5. 立立. 6. 1996. . ㈻㊫學. ! 2000. •‧. •‧ 國. . 政治大. 2008. (George Walker Bush). n. al. Ch. engchi. er. io. sit. y. Nat. 2000. (rogue states)7. 18. 27. . i v(Anti-Ballistic Missile n U. !2. 1997 3!. 288 289. 4!. 5!. 1980 5. 1996 (United Nations World Food Program) 295. 200 6! 1996 296 7!. 2001. 12. (Citadel). (rogue states). !2.

(7) Treaty, ABM Treaty). (National Missile. Defense, NMD). 911 (war on terrorism) 2003. (Saddam Hussein). (unilateralism). 2008. !. 政治大. 立立. (Kim Dae-jung). •‧. (Sunshine Policy). 8 . ㈻㊫學. •‧ 國. 1997. y. Nat. io. n. al. (Roh Moo-hyun). i vPolicy) n C h (Peace and Prosperity engchi U. (Kim Jung-il). ! 2000. 2008. !8. !3. 2003. sit. (Al-Qaeda). 2001. er. 2001. (Theater Missile Defense System, TMD). 2000. 6.

(8) 2002. (axis of evil). 9 . (Bill Clinton) (engagement and enlargement). —. 立立. !. 政治大. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. !. 9!. (Axis of Evil). 2002. !4. (State of the Union Speech).

(9) ! ! (offensive realism). (neoliberal. institutionalism). 立立. 政治大 (global hegemony). •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學 y. Nat. n. al. sit er. io. 1—1. . Ch. engchi. John Mearsheimer. ! ! !5. i Un. —. v. Robert Keohane, Joseph Nye.

(10) (John J. Mearsheimer) (neorealism) 10. (anarchy). . (distribution of capacity). 11 . (self-help). 12. 立立. . (status quo). •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. !. 政治大. (Robert Keohane). n. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat. Nye). 13 . (Joseph. Ch. i Un. v. e n(international g c h i regime)14 . 10 !. Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics(Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 1979). 11 ! John J. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. (NY: W.W. Norton& Company, 2003 ), pp. 42-43. !12. 42 2 2003 3 4 8 Robert O. Keohane, After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy(Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1984). ! Stephen Krasner 14 (principles) (norms) (rules) (decision-making procedures) Stephen D. Krasner, “Structural Causes and Regimes Consequences: Regimes as Intervening Variables,” in Stephen Krasner ed., International Regimes (NY Cornell University Press, 1983), p. 2. ! 13. !6.

(11) 15 . !. 911. 立立. !. 政治大. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. (window of opportunity). n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. ! (. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. ) (documentary analysis). (content analysis). (information analysis) 16 . ! 15. 36 1997. 12. 12. 12. 16 !. 2006. !7. 390.

(12) 17 . ! (. ). 18. 2000. 立立. •‧ 國. •‧ sit. n. al. er. io. ). y. Nat. ! (. ㈻㊫學. 19 . 20 . !. Ch. engchi. ! 19 ! 20. i Un. v. ! !. ! 17 ! 18. 2008. 政治大 . 1997. 133-136. 244 1993 164-170 Charles C. Ragin, The Comparative Method: Moving beyond Qualitative and Quantitative Strategies. (Berkley: University of California Press, 1987). !8.

(13) !. !. 政治大. 立立. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. Michael Hunt. n. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat. !. •‧. 21 . (neo-conservatism). Ch. engchi. i Un. v. 22 . ! 21 !. Michael H. Hunt, Ideology and U.S. Foreign Policy (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1987), p. xi. 22 ! 2005 266-270. !9.

(14) (William J. Perry). 1999. 23 . Andrew Scobell (hawkish). 2001. (conservative pragmatists). (Donald H. Rumsfeld). (Dick Cheney). (Condoleezza Rice). (Colin Powell). !. 政治大 24 . Young-Ho Park. Oknim Chung27. 911. . . Edward. n. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat. !. 25. •‧. 26. . 立立. 11. ㈻㊫學. Olsen. 9. •‧ 國. 2001. 2002. Ch. engchi. Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA). i Un. v. (International 2003. (Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, NPT ). ! 23. William J. Perry, Review of United States Policy toward North Korea: Findings and Recommendations, Office of the North Korea Policy Coordinator, U.S. Department of State, October 12, 1999. http://live.belfercenter.org/files/1997%20NKPR.pdf ! Andrew Scobell, “Crouching Korea, Hidden China: Bush administration policy toward Pyongyang 24 and Beijing,” Asian Survey, vol. 42, no. 2, 2002, pp. 343-368. 25 ! Young-Ho Park, “U.S.-North Korea Relations and ROK-U.S. Policy Cooperation,” Korea and World Affairs, Spring 2002, pp. 5-19. 26 ! Edward A. Olsen, ““Axis of Evil”: Impact on U.S.-Korean Relations,” Korea and World Affairs, Summer 2002, pp. 184-197. 27 ! Oknim Chung, “The 21st Century International Security Outlook and the U.S.-ROK Military Alliance,” Korea and World Affairs, Fall 2003, pp. 329-341.. !10.

(15) (Agreed Framework)28 . Victor. 29. Cha David Kang. . 30 . ! 2004. 立立. Changsu Kim32. ㈻㊫學. (six-party talks). Nat. io. n. al. 2006. er. 2008. y. •‧. (multilateralism). . •‧ 國. . sit. Nicholas Eberstadt31. 政治大. Ch. i Un. Nicholas Eberstadt. engchi. ! 28. v. (Agreed Framework) 1994 (Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization, KEDO) (Light-Water Reactor, LWR) 29 ! Victor D. Cha & David C. Kang, “The Debate over North Korea.”, Political Science Quarterly, vol. 119, no. 2, Summer 2004, pp. 229-254. ! 30 Donald Rumsfeld “Threats of war: Rumsfeld gets tough on North Korea,” The Guardian, 24 December, 2002. 31 ! Nicholas Eberstadt, “Reflections on the Bush Administration's North Korea Policy,” Korea and World Affairs, Spring 2009, pp. 45-60. 32 ! Changsu Kim, “Korea-U.S. Relations in the Second Bush Administration,” Korea and World Affairs, Winter 2004, pp. 361-390.. !11.

(16) ! Jongchul Park (neo-functionalism) (gradualism) building measures). (confidence (reconciliation). 立立. 33 . •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. !. 政治大. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. 2000. 6. 15. engchi. i Un. v. 34 . ! 2003 Yu-hwan Koh. 33 !. Jongchul Park, “Seoul’s Engagement Policy towards Pyongyang—Setting, Framework and Conditions,” Korea and World Affairs, Spring 1999, pp. 5-25.. !34. (. 2003). !12. 215-230.

(17) 35 . ! Zhiqun Zhu. 政治大. 立立. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. 2006. •‧ sit. n. al. er. io 2000-2008. y. Nat. !. 36 . Ch. engchi. i Un. v. 2002 2003. ! John Barry Kotch. 35 !. Yu-hwan Koh, “Roh Moo-hyun Administration’s North Korea Policy and Nuclear Crisis Management,” Korea and World Affairs, Spring 2006, pp. 5-30. 36 ! Zhiqun Zhu, “Small Power, Big Ambition—South Korea’s Role in Northeast Asian Security under President Roh Moo-hyun,” Korea and World Affairs, Summer 2007, pp. 146-171.. !13.

(18) 37 . Hyun-lk Hong 38 . 39 . ! 2002. 6. (U.S. Forces Korea) 12 30. 2003 (Gerhard Schroeder) . er. io. 42 . n. al. Ch. 911. sit. Nat. !. Changsu Kim. y. 41. (axis of independence) 2004. •‧. (Jacques Chirac). 40 . ㈻㊫學. •‧ 國. 立立. 政治 Heon-joo 大Jung. engchi. i Un. v. (zerosum game). ! 37. John Barry Kotch, “U.S. Policy toward the Korean Peninsula,” Korea and World Affairs, Summer 2006, pp. 165-184. ! Hyun-lk Hong, “Evolving U.S.-ROK-DPRK Relations and the Future of the ROK-U.S. Alliance,” 38 Korea and World Affairs, Winter 2002, pp. 484-498. ! Zhiqun Zhu, op cit., p. 160. 39 40 ! Heon-joo Jung, “The Rise and Fall of Anti-American Sentiment in South Korea,”Asian Survey, vol. 50, no. 5, 2010, pp. 946-964. 41 ! Zhiqun Zhu, op cit., p. 153. ! Changsu Kim, op cit., pp. 361-390. 42. !14.

(19) 43. Scott Snyder. . 44 . !. ! 政 !治大. 立立. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. 2000-2008. n. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat. !. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. !. ! ! ! 43. 2 1 2000 1 56-82 44 ! Scott Snyder, “New Challenges for U.S.-ROK Relations, ” Korea and World Affairs, Spring 2000, pp. 29-45.. !15.

(20) ! 政治大. 立立. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. !. n. Ch. ! engchi. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. i Un. v. !. 2000. 2008. 2003 2003. 2008. ! !16.

(21) !. ! 立立. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. io. sit. y. Nat. n. al. er. ! !. 政治大. Ch. engchi. !17. i Un. v.

(22) ! !. —. 立立. 政治大. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. !. 1994. n. —. Ch. 1998. engchi. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. i Un. v. (Two–Path Strategy). 1 . 1!. William J. Perry, Review of United States Policy toward North Korea: Findings and Recommendations, Office of the North Korea Policy Coordinator, U.S. Department of State, October 12, 1999. p. 9. . !18.

(23) ! (A Charge to Keep ) 2. (compassionate conservatism). . 3 . )4. (Irving Kristol. ). (. ). (. ). !. 立立. (John Locke). er. io. sit. y. Nat. 2!. 政治大. •‧ 國. (. •‧. ). 1970. ㈻㊫學. (. . n. al. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. (Franklin Roosevelt) 3!. 1960. 1970. (George Herbert Walker Bush). 4!. (godfather) (The Public Interest). (The National Interest). !19.

(24) (. ). (détente) 5 . !. 立立. 政治大. 6 . •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. !. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. !. 5!. Irving Kristol, “What is a Neoconservative,” Newsweek, January 19, 1976, p. 87. 16. 6!. 2006. 10 54. 53. !20.

(25) . 立立. 政治大. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學 •‧. (Richard Bruce Cheney). (Donald Rumsfeld). (Condoleezza Rice). n. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat. !. 7 . (Collin Powell). Ch. engchi. i Un. v. 8 . 9 . 7!. 1989 (Manual Noreiga) (Operation of Just Cause) 1991 (Operation Dissert Storm) 8! Walter Isaacson and Jim Kelly, “Bush Speaks,” Time, December 25, 2000. 9! Andrew Scobell, “Crouching Korea, hidden China: Bush administration policy toward Pyongyang and Beijing,” Asian Survey, vol. 42, no. 2, 2002, p. 345.. !21.

(26) (Theater Missile Defense System, TMD). 2003 10 . ! (Gerald Rudolph Ford). 立立. 政治大. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. n. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat 2002. 11 . Ch. 12i n U . engchi. v. 13 . ! 10 !. Leslie H. Gelb, “In the End, Every President talks to the Bad Guys,” Washington Post, April 25, 2008.. !11. (SALT II). B1. (Trident). 12 ! Andrew 13 !. MX. Scobell, op. cit., p. 347. John Gittings and Suzanne Goldenberg, “Rumsfeld gets tough on North Korea,” The Guardian, December 24, 2002.. !22.

(27) C. (clarity). (consistency). (commitment). 14 . 政治大. 立立. 15. ㈻㊫學. •‧ 國. . 911. •‧ sit. n. al. er. io. 16 . y. Nat. !. Ch. i Un. v. i e n(Brent g c hScowcroft). 1989. 1992 2000. ! 14. (Oren Harari) (The Leadership Secrets of Collin Powell)( 2002) 145 15 ! James Moen, Rise of the Vulcans: The History of Bush’s War Cabinet (New York: Penguin Books, 2004), p. 340. ! Andrew Scobell, op. cit., p. 349. 16. !23.

(28) 17 . 2000. 18 . 911. 立立 911. io. sit. y. 911. n. al. er. Nat 911. •‧. 911. ㈻㊫學. •‧ 國. . 政治大. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. ! 2001. 9. 30. (Quadrennial. Defense Review Report, QDR) (threat-based). ! 17 18 !. (capabilities-based). 19 7 2005 14-16 Condoleezza Rice, “Promoting National Interests,” Foreign Affairs, No. 79, vol. 1, January/ February, 2000, pp. 46-47.. !24.

(29) 19 . 2001. 12. (Nuclear. Posture Review, NPR ) (New 20. Triad). . 政治大. 立立. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學 y. sit. n. al. er. 1. io. 2002. Nat. !. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. 21 . ! 2002. 9. —. (National Security Strategy, NSS). 19 !. U.S. Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review Report, September 30, 2001, p. iv. 4 2 2003 27-28 21 ! 26-27 ! 20. !25. 3.

(30) 22 . !. 立立. 政治大. Nat. y. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. io. n. al. sit. 911. er. 911. Ch. engchi. !. 22 !. i Un. v. ! ! ! !. The White House, The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, September 2002, p. 6.. !26.

(31) ! (2000-2003) (Alexander George). (coercive. diplomacy) (attempt to get a target, a state, a group (or groups) within a state, or a nonstate actor-to change its objectionable behavior through either the threat to use force or the actual use of limited force.) 23. 立立. . Nat. y. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學 24. io. n. al. sit. (Anything but Clinton). . er. !. 政治大. (compellence). Ch. engchi. i Un. v. 25 . 23 !. Robert J. Art and Patrick M. Cronin, The United States and Coercive Diplomacy (Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press, 2003), p. 6. Alexander George and William Simons, The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy: Second Edition(Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press, 1994) Thomas Schelling, Arms and Influence(Westport, Connecticut: Greenwood, 1976).. !24. 25 !. David E. Sanger, “Bush Tells Seoul Talks with North Won’t Resume Now,” New York Times, March 8, 2001.. !27.

(32) 26 . ! 2001. 6. 27 . (Han Seung-soo) 28 . 立立 2001. 18. 政治大. ㈻㊫學. •‧ 國. !. 9. 911. •‧. 2002. n. Ch. engchi. er. io. al. sit. y. Nat. 9. i Un. v. 29 . ! (Central Intelligence Agency, CIA) 1990. (Highly. ! 26. Fred Kaplan, “Rolling Blunder: How the Bush Administration Lets North Korea Get Nukes,” Washington Monthly, May 2004. 27 ! George. W. Bush, Statement on Completion of the North Korean Policy Review, June 6, 2001. http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/PPP-2001-book1/pdf/PPP-2001-book1-doc-pg620.pdf 28 ! Collin L. Powell, Remarks With Foreign Minister Han Seung-soo of South Korea After Their Meeting, September 18, 2001. http://2001-2009.state.gov/secretary/former/powell/remarks/2001/4937.htm 29 ! Korean Central News Agency. “Spokesman for DPRK Foreign Minister Slams Bush’s Accusations,” Pyongyang: January 31, 2002. http://www.kcna.co.jp/index-e.htm. !28.

(33) 30. Enriched Uranium, HEU). . (Demilitarized Zone, DMZ). !. (James Kelly). 17. Nat. 1994. er. 32. 50. io. sit. 20 . al. n. 33 . Ch. y. •‧. 11. 立立. 4. . ㈻㊫學. 10. 10. •‧ 國. 2002. 31. 政治大. e n34g c h i . i Un. v. 12. (IAEA) 2003. 1. (Non-Proliferation. Treaty, NPT). ! 30. Fred Kaplan, op cit. Selig S. Harrison, “Did North Korea Cheat?” Foreign Affairs, vol. 84, no.1, January/ February, 2005, pp. 107-110. 32 ! David E. Sanger, “U.S. to Withdraw from Arms Accord with North Korea,” New York Times, October 20, 2002. 33 ! Fred Kaplan, op cit. 34 ! Philip Shenon, “White House Rejects North Korea Offer for Talks,” New York Times, November 4, 2002. ! 31. !29.

(34) 35 . 2. 5 36 . !. 立立. 政治大 37 . •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. !. (Three-Party talks). 4. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. e n g c38h i . i Un. v. (shuttle. diplomacy) 2003. 39. 8. . ! ! ! 35. Korean Central News Agency. “Statement of DPRK Government on its Withdrawal from NPT,” Pyongyang: January 10, 2003. http://www.kcna.co.jp/index-e.htm ! Kyung-Ae Park, “North Korea in 2003: Pendulum Swing between Crisis and Diplomacy,” Asian 36 Survey, vol. 44, no.1, 2004, p. 140. 37 ! Ibid., p. 141. 38 ! David Sanger, “North Korea Says it Now Possesses Nuclear Arsenal,” New York Times, April 25, 2003. ! Kyung-Ae Park, op cit., p. 142. 39. !30.

(35) Victor Cha (hawk engagement). 40 . 立立. 政治大. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學 er. io. sit. y. Nat. !. n. a. l C (2003-2008). 40 !. hengchi. i Un. v. Victor Cha, “Hawk Engagement Preventive Defense on the Korean Peninsula,” International Security, vol. 27, no. 1, Summer 2002, pp. 43-44.. !31.

(36) 41 . ! 2003. ). (. ). y. (. sit. ). al. er. (. •‧ 國. ). 政治大. •‧. (. 42 . ㈻㊫學. ). 29. n. (. 立立. io. ). 27. Nat. (. 8. 43 . Ch. engchi. i Un. v. ! (freeze for compensation) (principle of simultaneous action). 41 !. Jongchul Park, “North Korea’s Nuclear Crisis and the Six-Party Talks: Issues and Prospects,” International Journal of Korean Unification Studies, vol. 13, no. 1, 2004, pp. 101-102. 42 ! Korean Central News Agency. “DPRK Foreign Ministry on Six-way Talks,” Pyongyang: August 30, 2003. http://www.kcna.co.jp/index-e.htm !43. 2003. 8. 23. http://www.china-un.org/chn/zt/chwt/t25501.htm. !32.

(37) 44 . 45 . ! 2004. 2. 25. 28. 政治大. 立立. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學 •‧. verifiable, and irreversible, CVID). (complete,. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. 6. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. 46 . 47 . ! 2004. 6. 23. 26. 44 !. Korean Central News Agency. “KCNA Urges U.S. Not to Shun Core Issue at Six-way Talks,” Pyongyang: January 6, 2004. http://www.kcna.co.jp/index-e.htm 45 ! Kyung-Ae Park, “North Korea in 2004: From Brisk Diplomacy to Impasse,” Asian Survey, vol. 45, no. 1, 2005, pp. 14-20. !46. 47 !. 2004 2 28 http://www.china-un.org/chn/zt/chwt/t69598.htm Korean Central News Agency. “DPRK Foreign Ministry Spokesman on Six-way Talks.” Pyongyang: February 29, 2004. http://www.kcna.co.jp/index-e.htm. !33.

(38) 3. 立立. 政治大. CVID. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學 48 . •‧. n. al. 9. er. io. sit. y. Nat. !. i 9 n C 2004 U hengchi. v. 2 2000. 2004. ! 48. 49 . 7 2004 2-3 49 ! International Atomic Energy Agency, “IAEA Inspection Team Conducting Investigation in South Korea,” September 2, 2004. http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/2004/prn200408.html. !34.

(39) 50 . 51. 2005. . ! 2005. 19. 11. 7. 919. 立立. 政治大 52 . •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學 2005. 11 9. 13. •‧. Nat. y. !. 8. 53 . io. (Banco Delta Asia). n. al. 54 . Ch. engchi. sit. 13. 26. er. 9. 7. i Un. v. 55 . ! 50 !. Korean Central News Agency, “Foreign Ministry Spokesman on Issue of Resuming Six-Party Talks,” Pyongyang: October 22, 2004. http://www.kcna.co.jp/index-e.htm 51 ! Fox News, “North Korea Confirms It Has Nuclear Weapons,” February 11, 2005. http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,146950,00.html ! 52 2005 9 19 http://www.china-un.org/chn/zt/chwt/t212681.htm !53. 2005 11 11 http://www.china-un.org/chn/zt/chwt/t221070.htm Stephen Mihm, “No Ordinary Counterfeit,” New York Times, July 23, 2006. 55 ! llsoo David Cho and Meredith Jung-En Woo, “North Korea in 2006: The Year of Living Dangerously,” Asian Survey, vol. 47, no.1, p. 71. 54 !. !35.

(40) 2006. 7. 4. 42. 10. 3 9. 14. 56. 1718. . 12. 57. 18. . ! 立立8. 58. 政治大. 2. . 13. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. 60. •‧. 213. n. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat. !. Ch. engchi 2007 9. ! 56. 100. 27. 1.. 3. i Un. 19 10. v. 59 . 22 3. 2.. 3. 4. 2006 10 14 5551 1718 http://www.un.org/chinese/aboutun/prinorgs/sc/sres/06/s1718.htm 57 ! llsoo David Cho and Meredith Jung-En Woo, op. cit., pp. 71-72. 58 ! Ibid., p. 72. ! 59. 24 6-9. !36. 2007. 4.

(41) ! (. ). (. ). (. ). (. ). 919. 213. 213. 100. 60 . ! 立立. 政治大. 2009. y. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. Nat. io. n. al. sit. 213. er. 919. Ch. engchi. ! 60. i Un. v. 31 11. 38-41. !37. 2007.

(42) 2—1. !. 2003. 08. 27-08. 29. !. •‧. •‧ 國. 2004. 02. 25-02. 28. y. sit. io. n. al. er. Nat. !. 2004. 06. 23-06. 26. 2005. 07. 26-08. 07. 2005. 09. 13-09. 19. ㈻㊫學. 治 ! 政大立立 !. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. NPT. !. 919. 2005. 11. 09-11. 13. 2006. 12. 18-12. 22. ! 213. 2007. 02. 08-02. 13. !38.

(43) 2007. 03. 19-03. 22. !. 2007. 09. 27-10. 03. ! ! 政治大㈻㊫學. •‧ 國. 立立. 38. •‧. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. i U n6. v. 10. 1. 1950. engchi. 25. 38. (United Nations Command, UNC). ! 1953. 61 . ! 61. 7. 27. 1966. Yale Law School, Lillian Goldman Law Library, “Mutual Defense Treaty Between the United States and the Republic of Korea,” October 1, 1953. ” http://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/kor001.asp. !39.

(44) 1978. (Combined Forces. Command, CFC) (USFK Headquarters) 2008. 28000. 90. 40. 40. (ATACMS). 立立. 50 62. 60. . ! 2—1 政治大. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學 sit. n. al. er. io. . y. Nat. !. 130. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. Ministry of National Defense, Republic of Korea, Defense White Paper 2008, p. 61. !. 62 !. Ministry of National Defense, Republic of Korea, Defense White Paper 2008, p. 61. 2000-2008 2012 28500 Ministry of National Defense, Republic of Korea, Defense White Paper 2012, p. 57.. !40.

(45) 63. 1994. . 12. 1. 64 . !. 65 . 立立. 政治大. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. 1988. 2. 66 . Nat. y. 4. •‧. 2001. 67. er. io. 68 . n. al. Ch. engchi. sit. . i Un. v. !63. 64 !. 11. 2004. 30. !65. ,“. “. ”. ,” 04, 01,. 2013. 66 !. 67 !. 2001 2001) 22. (US-ROK Status of Forces Agreement Amendments 5 2000. (formaldehyde) ,” 07, 13, 2000;. 68 !. 2001 2001) 3 2 Understandings on Environmental Protections). ,“ ,“ ,” 07, 13, 2000. (US-ROK Status of Forces Agreement Amendments (Memorandum of Special. !41.

(46) ! 2000. 2008. 2002. 6. 13. 69 . 2003 3600. 2004. 政治大. 12500. 立立. 2. 120. sit. 5. y. •‧. 4. —. n. al. er. io. —. 8. Nat. 14000. ㈻㊫學. •‧ 國. !. 70 . 14. Ch. i Un. 41. engchi. v. 2010. 71. 110. . 72 . ! 69 !. ,“ ,“. 70 !. 1. 2 2500. ,” 06, 13, 2002. ,” 06, 07, 2004.. ! 71. 1. 72 !. ,“. ,. 2006. ,4. 2004.. !42. ~5. 2004 4. 56-63 ,” 09, 15,.

(47) (tripwire). ! 立立. 政治大. y. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. Nat. 73. sit. . n. al. er. io. !. 911. Ch. engchi. ! 73. i Un. v. 9 85-99. !43. 2005.

(48) . (Foal Eagle). 立立. Resolve). 治政大 (Ulchi-Freedom Guardian). •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. !. 1961. (Field Training. n. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat. Exercise, FTX). 74 . (Key. 2008. Ch. i Un. v (Ulchi Focus Lens). e n g c(Command hi Post Exercise, CPX). 75 . ! (Team Spirit) (Reception, Staging, Onward movement, and Integration, RSOI). !74. ! 75. GlobalSecurity. org Foal Eagle, Ulchi-Focus Lens 2008 2008 10 31 http://www.ewdefense.com/worldnews.asp?wno=161&search. !44. 2008.

(49) 1976. 1994. 1993. RSOI. RSOI. 1997 RSOI. 76. 2001. 治政大 2008 RSOI 立立. . •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. !. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. ! (National Missile Defense, NMD). ! 76. 5 http://www.faps.org.tw/issues/subject.aspx?pk=350 Spirit, Key Resolve.. !45. GlobalSecurity. org. 6 Team.

(50) 77 . (. ). 2006. (. ). (Patriot Advanced Capability 3, PAC-3). 立立. (Navy Area Missile Defense, NAMD) (SM-2). •‧. SPY-1. •‧ 國. ). . ㈻㊫學. (. 政治大. n. . ). Ch. er. io. al. sit. y. Nat. (. AN/. i Un. v. (Theater High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD). engchi . (. ). (Medium Extended Air Defense, MEADS) (North Atlantic Treaty Organization, NATO). 77 !. (Ronald Reagan) (Strategic Defense Initiative, SDI). (. 2003). !46. 181-182. (Star War).

(51) (Stinger). THAAD . (. ). (Navy Theater Wide Defense, NTWD). 78 . ! 2—2 政治大立立 •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i Un. 66. ! (. v. ). 40 79 . ! 78 79 !. ( TMD. 2000) 1999. !47. 5 7. 67-83.

(52) ! THAAD. ! !. 立立. 政治大. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. 911. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. ! 911. !48.

(53) !. 立立. 政治大. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. !. Ch. engchi. !49. i Un. v.

(54) ! ! 1990 1991. 立立1991. 政治大 1991. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學 1992. 2. 19. •‧. 2 . n. al. 2. er. io. 1993. sit. y. Nat. !. 1 . Ch. engchi. i n U. v. !1. 30 10 2000 10 56 http://pagrad.konkuk.ac.kr/bbs/view.php?bbs_id=file_07&doc_num=8 2!. (. !50. 1998). 138.

(55) 3 . ! 4 . 5. 6. . . 7 . 政治大. 立立. Nat. 1925 —. n. al. er. io. 3!. y. 12. •‧. 1997. sit. ). •‧ 國. (. ㈻㊫學. !. 18-19. Ch. i n U. engchi. v. 35. 4. 1996. !4. 38. 11. 5!. 1999. 11. 1973. 6 23. 21. ( 2003). 219. !6. 1991 219 7!. 220. !51. 4.

(56) (Korean Committee for Preparation of Independence, KCPI) (Korean People’s Republic, KPR) 1946. (New Democratic Party). 20. 1949. 1950 8 . 立立 1953 1963. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. !. 政治大. 1966. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. 1972. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. (Korean Central Intelligence Agency, KCIA) 1987 1992. 1997 9 . 8!. Hakjoon Kim, “Sunshine or Thunder? Tension between the Kim and Bush Administrations in Historical Perspective,” Korea Observer, vol. 34, no. 1, Spring 2003, p. 14. 9! Ibid., pp. 15-16.. !52.

(57) !. ! 立立. 政治大. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. !. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. !. Ch. engchi. i n U. 10 . !. ! 10. ( 2010). 97. !53. v.

(58) !. !. 立立. 11 . •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. !. 政治大. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. ! ! 11 !. 98. !12. 21. !54. i n U. v. 12 .

(59) ! (. ). 1987. 13 . 14 . 1992. 政治大. 立立. 15 . •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. 16 . •‧. !. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. 13 !. (. Ch. e n g17c h i . i n U. v. ). , .. http://www.law.go.kr/lsInfoP.do?lsiSeq=61603#0000 !. 14 !. !!!!. ,. ,. , .. http://www.tongilnews.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=91961 ! 15. !!!! !!!!. (. ). ! !. . http://unibook.unikorea.go.kr/?sub_num=53&state=view&idx=369. ! 16 ! 17. 218 Jongchul Park, “Seoul’s Engagement Policy towards Pyongyang—Setting, Framework, and Conditions,” Korea and World Affairs, Spring 1999, p. 14.. !55.

(60) 18 . ! (neofunctionalism)19 . 20. (functionalism)21. . . 立立. 政治大. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. 18 !. al. n (institution center). y. (Ernst B. Haas). sit. io. (interest group). 17. er. 60. 2006. Nat. 19 !. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. (spill-over) — 5 4 2009 159 Ernst B. Haas, Beyond the Nation-State: Functionalism and International Organization (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1964), p. 373. 20 ! Jongchul Park, op. cit., p. 13. 〈. 21 !. 50. (David Mitrany) (high politics). (low politics) (doctrine of ramification). 〈〉 2013 6 194 David Mitrany, A Working Peace System: An Argument for the Functional Development of International Organization (Chicago: Quadrangle Books, 1966).. !56.

(61) 22 . ! (. ). 23 . 政治大. 立立. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. 7. Ch. engchi. i n U. (zero-sum game) 24 . ! 22 !. 183. !23. 2 24 !. 1. 2000. 1. 66-67. 67. !57. v.

(62) !. 1994. 25 . ! 立立. •‧ 國. 26. ㈻㊫學. . •‧. 27 . 政治大. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. ! ! ! ! ! 25 ! 26 ! 27 !. Jongchul Park, op. cit., p. 7. Ibid., p. 7. 18. !58. i n U. v.

(63) ! (. . ). 1981. 立立. 28. 政治大. . 29 . •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. n. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat. !. 30 . !. Ch. i n U. engchi. v. !28. 124 2009 http://www.epochweekly.com/b5/126/6452.htm ! 29. 6. . 4. http://www.epochweekly.com/b5/126/6452.htm. 30 !. 2002. !59. 12. 20. CEO.

(64) 20. 31. . !. 立立. 政治大. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. n. al ) Ch 32 . !. ). er. io. sit. y. Nat. (. (. engchi. i n U. v. !. ! 31 32 !. CEO. (. 2003). 252. !60. 251.

(65) 33. . !. ! ). 立立. 政治大. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學 2002. •‧. al. n. . 12. Ch. er. io 34. 19. e n g16c h i. i n U. 35 . !. ! 33. 255. ! 34. ,“. 30. 35 !. , “`. '. ,” 2002. 12. 07. ,. -. 7. sit. Nat. 12. y. (. ,” 2002. 12. 07.. !61. v. 6.

(66) ! (. . ). 立立. 政治大. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學 2002. •‧. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. 36 . ! 21. !36. 2006. 23. !62.

(67) 37 . !. 38 . 立立. !. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. !. 2. 25. n. al. sit. io. 1998. er. ). y. Nat. (. 政治大. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. 39 . ! ! 37 !. 47 3. 1. 129. 38 !. 132. 39 !. ,. . . .. ,. , ,. 5. (. 116.. (. !63. :. , 2003), p. 2003) 116. 2008.

(68) 政治大 40 . 立立. •‧ 國. y. sit. io. al. n. 1.. er. ). Nat. (. •‧. !. ㈻㊫學. 41 . Ch. engchi. i n U. v. ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 40. 220. 41 !. 4. !64. 76.

(69) 3—1 / . 76. 1999. 2000. 2001. 2. 2. 26. 8. 38. 2. 4. 2. 11. 3. 18. 01. ) 1 . (1). 12. (11). 11 . 10. (1). 立立. 政治大4. 17. (17). •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. 21. (21). •‧. 7. 2. io. 2. al. n. (2). 3. (3) . 1. 4. sit. Nat. (7). 4. y. (9). er. (. 2002-2003.. 1998. 4. Ch. n U i engch 1. 2. 2. iv. 2. 2. (4) ( 2003. !. 1. 31. ! ! ! ! !65. 2003). 10.

(70) (1) 2000. 6. 15 615 . 8. . 15 . 立立. •‧ 國 n. al. Ch. e n g c! h i. er. io. 7. sit. y. Nat. (2). . •‧. !. . ㈻㊫學. 42 . 政治大. i n U. 3—2. 2000. 07. 29-07. 31. 1. 2. 3.. 2000. 08. 29- 09. 01. 1. 2. 3.. 42 !. 46. !66. v. .

(71) 1. 2000. 09. 27- 09. 30. 2.. 3. 1. 2000. 12. 12- 12. 16. 2.. (2001. 2. 3.. 4. 100. ). 1. 2001. 09. 15- 09. 18. 立立. 政 2.3. 治大 1.. 26. 29. •‧. 2002. 08. 12- 08. 14. 8. ㈻㊫學. •‧ 國. 2001. 11. 09- 11. 14. 9. Nat. n. al. 9. Ch. e n1.g c h i. 2002. 10. 19- 10. 23. 4. 6. er. io. 3.. sit. y. 2.. i n U. v. 2. 3.. 11. 1. 2003. 01. 21- 01. 23. 2.. 2. 11 14. 3.. 4. 7. 10. (. ! !67. 2003). 31.

(72) (3). 2000 9. 6. 11. 14. 7. ! 2000 2002. 911 4. 3. 6. 立立. 政治大. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學 y. sit. 29. n. al. er. 27. io. 1. Nat. 2003. 10. •‧. !. 615. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. 615. 43 . ! ! 43 !. 32-34. !68.

(73) (4) 2000. 9. 25. 26. 615. 10. ! 2000. 11. 2003. 2002. 9. 17. 1. 16. 立立2003. 政治大 1. 27. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. 44 . n. al. 3. Ch. ! 2000. 12. 27. 9. er. io. 2000. sit. y. Nat. (5). •‧. !. engchi. i n U. v. 2. 2003. 1 21. 30 2001. 1. 8. 30 2. 44 !. 3. 35-37. !69.

(74) ! 2002. 8. 27. 30 8. ! 11 6. 9. 2002. 25. y. sit. 9. Nat. 2000. 6. •‧. !. 政治大. ㈻㊫學. •‧ 國. 立立. 26. io. al. n. ! 2000. 11 8. 10. er. 2002. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. 11 2000. !. !70. 12. 12. 16.

(75) 45 . ! (6) 2003 3 1. ! 6. 27. 30. 立立. 政治大. 151. •‧ 國. 8. 100. ㈻㊫學. 1. 20. 15. •‧. 9. 2. Nat. 63. sit. n. al. er. io 46 . ! 9. 20. 23. 1. 29. 31. Ch. engchi. i n U. !. ! 45. 30. y. 2000. 2001. 4. 5. 2. 2000. 1. 38-43. 46 !. 48. !71. v. 343.

(76) 1971. 2002. 9. 6. 8. 47 . ! 2002 2002. 10. 31. 11 2. 立立 2002. 12. 15. 17. 政治大. 22. y 48 . n. al. er. io. sit. •‧ 國. 20. (7) 2002. 1. •‧. 1. Nat. !. 2003. ㈻㊫學. 2003. 10. 9. Ch. engchi. 29. 10. v. 14. 49. 14. i n U. 2000. . 4. ! ! !!. ! 47 ! 48. 58-59. 49 !. 60. 54-57. !72. 3.

(77) 2. (1). 2002. 9. 18. ! 3—3 (. —. ). (km) 17.1. 2002. 8.8. 2003. 27.5. 2003. 9. 14.2. ㈻㊫學. 2003. 9. 1.5. 2002. 12. —. 立立. 政 —治大 —. •‧. •‧ 國. —. 64. n. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat. !. 12. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. 50 . ! (2) 2000. 8 2002. 12. 50. 63-65. !73. 8.

(78) ! 70. 50. 11 20. 51. 2004. . !. 立立. (3). 政治大. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學 12. 1057. y. sit. n. al. 2002 2002. 51. er. io. !. 11 18. •‧. 2002. Nat. 4243. 1998. 3. C28h. engchi. 4. i n U. v. 70% 60%. (. 2002. 12. 57218. 21529. ). ! 2002. 51. 9. 12. 67-69. !74.

(79) 2003. 1. 27 2. ! 2002. 11 23. 52 . ! (4). 政治大. 立立. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. 11 2. er. io. sit. y. Nat. !. a l1986 v i n Ch e n g2002 c h i5 U. n. 2002. 4 9. 16. 18. 53 . ! (5). 52. 70-72. 53. 73-75. 2002. !75. 2002. 8 10. 30.

(80) 54. 4. . ! (6) 2002. 8 18. 2002. 10. 11 3. 55 . ! 3.. 立立. (1) 17. •‧ 國. 250 19. 12 24. sit. io. al. n. !. 6. y. Nat. 9. •‧. 9. 100. er. 9. ㈻㊫學. 2002. 政治大. Ch. e n g c56h i . i n U. v. (2) 2000 57 . ! 54. 76. 55. 77. ! 56. 79. 57 !. 80-84. !76. 26.

(81) (3) a.. 2002 39977. ! 3—4. 1989-2002. (. 89. 90. 91. 92. 93. 94. 95. 1. 183. 237. 257. 18. 12. 536. 政治大. 立立. 146. 1015. 3317. •‧ 國 291. 175. 01. 02. 7280. 8551. 12825. 39977. sit. y. al. (. 92. 103. ). er. 1989-2002. 91. 00. 2586. n. 0. 90. 5599. 2002. io. 89. 99. •‧. 3—5. 98. Nat. !. 97. ㈻㊫學. !. 96. ). 93. Ch 6. 94-98. 99. engchi 0. ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !77. 62. 00i n U. v. 706. 01. 02. 191. 1052. 2586.

(82) 3—1. 1989-2002. (. 40000. ). 39583. 37572 30000. 20000. 10000. 2980. 1989-1997. 立立. ! •‧ 國. 2002. 3. 2000. 2002. io. 4. 20 3. Nat. 1999. 5. al. n. !. •‧. 1997. 85-86. 2522 1998. y. 1998. 1998-2002 政治大. ㈻㊫學. b.. 2011. er. !. 575. sit. 2405. 0. Ch. 6. 4. engchi. i n U. v. 58 . (4) 1998. 3. 2002. 1835 2000. 1004. 5 831. ! 1998. 3 2. 58 !. 2002. 3356 1669. 87. !78. 1687.

(83) 1998. 3. 2002. 4190. 671. 3519. ! 2 5. 1998. 2002. 12. 9792 59. 3. . ! (5) 1998. 2002. 6280. 立立. 政治大 1999. •‧ 國. 60 . •‧. 7. 8 1811. al. n. 1999. er. 2256. io. 2002. y. Nat. 1998. sit. (6). ㈻㊫學. !. 4. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. 2002. 61 . ! (7) 2002. 9. 29. ! 59. 88-91. ! 60. 92-95. 61 !. 96-98. KOREA. !79.

(84) 62 . ! 4. (1). 615. 2003 29. 立立. 政治大 63 . •‧. •‧ 國. (2). 1994. 1000MWe(MWe:. sit. io. 46. al. n. KEDO 7. 6299. 2002. Ch. 12. engchi. er. . y. Nat. )64. i n U. v. 10 17. 65 . ! 5. (1). 62. 99-100. 63. 102-104. ! 64. MWe 1. 27. ㈻㊫學. !. 1. 65. 104-105. !80. 7961 KEDO.

(85) 1990 1999. 1998. 1998 2001 2002. ! (2) 2002. 17. 立立. •‧ 國. 2000. 5. 2001. 1. 2001 2000. 2002. y. 8. io. (Trans-Korean Railway, TKR). n. al. i n U. ( Trans-Siberian Railway, TSR). !. 8. sit. 7. 7. Ch. engchi 2000. 1. er. Nat. 2001. 66 . •‧. 9. 政治大. ㈻㊫學. !. 9. v. 2002. 12. 15. 13 67 . ! ! 66. 2004. !. 2006. !!!! 67 !. 107-110. !81.

(86) (. ). ! 立立. 政治大 1999. 2002. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學 sit. n. al. er. io 2002. y. Nat. !. 68 . Ch. engchi. i n U. v. 1994 2003. !. !68. 2002. !82. 7. 1. 1.

(87) 69. 2000. . 5. 70 . ! (. ). 立立. 政治大. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. n. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat. !. 71 . Ch. engchi. i n U. v. 2005. !69. 2001 ! 70. 1. 3 4. 2003 ! 71. 9. 6. 26. , p. 6. 6 http://www.unikorea.go.kr/board/view.do? boardId=BO0000000077&menuCd=DOM_000000105003004000&startPage=8&dataSid=216005. !83.

(88) 919. ! 615. ! 615. 立立. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. n. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat. !. 政治大. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. !. 72 . ! 72 !. 23-25. !84.

(89) ! ! 3—6 2003. 2004. 2005. 2006. 2007. 171. 36. 23. 34. 23. 55. 35. 5. 2. 10. 5. 13. 29. 6. 5. 3. 4. 11. 71. 17. 13. 11. 8. 22. 19. 7. 3. 3. 3. 6. /. 政 2 治 4大. 立立1. 17. 1. 6. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. http://dialogue.unikorea.go.kr/home/talk/statistics/list. ! ). (2). sit. al. n. (1). er. io. 2004. y. Nat. 1.. •‧. (. Ch. 60. engchi. i n U. 1800. v. 236 1. 5000kw. (3). 73 . (4). ! 73. 2007. ,. 179.8. 3. 1. ( (. !85. :. , 2006), p. 5. 2006) 5. 8478.

(90) 2. 74. 2538. . ! 3—2 (. ). (. ). 30000. 22,538 22500. 15000. 政治大. 立立. 11,160. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. 6,013. 7500. 18,478. •‧. 7,373. Nat. 2006. io. n. al. 2007. er. 2005. sit. y. 1,491. 0. Ch. i n U. v. http://www.unikorea.go.kr/index.do?menuCd=DOM_000000105006003000#tabc01. !. 2.. 919 2002. engchi. 213. 10. ( ). 2005 2005. 6. 17. 919. 74 !. http://eng.unikorea.go.kr/index.do?menuCd=DOM_000000204003000000. !86.

(91) 75. 2006. . 10. 9 76. 213. . ! 3. 2004 32. 5. 2004. 4 6. 4 1999. 2002. 77 . 政治大. 立立 4.. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. !. 78 . 2005. Nat. y. al. n. !. 6. sit. io. 100. 2005. er. 60. Ch. (17. i n U. v. i e n g c h2005. 10. 5500. ). (40. ) 2004. 11. 12 2002. !!. 75 ! 76 !. !!!! !!!! ! 77 78 !. 6 ,!p.!9.!. 4 919. 9. 12. !. 213. !!. 7 !. 11. !87. !! !.

(92) 79 . ! (. ). 13 (2005. 10. 28. ). 80 . ! !. 政治大. 立立. •‧ 國. 2003-2007. (. ). ㈻㊫學. 3—7. 2005. 2006. 2007. 15280. 26213. 87028. 100838. 158170. 3—8. y. 387529. sit. n. al. er. io. !. •‧. 2004. Nat. 2003. 2003-2007. 2003. 2004. 1023. 321. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. (. 2005. 2006. 2007. 1313. 870. 1044. ). 4571. ! ! ! 79 !. !!!! !!!! 80 !. 2007. 5. 17. 12. 1. 2013 9. !. 2008. 16 !!. 9-10. !88. !.

(93) 3—3. 2003-2007. (. ). 400000. 392100. 387529 300000. 200000. 100000. 4571. 0. !. 政治大. 2003-2007. 立立. http://eng.unikorea.go.kr/index.do?menuCd=DOM_000000204003000000. 2003. 2. er. io. sit. Nat. 2005. y. 5.. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. !. n. al. Ch. engchi U. ) ). v ni. 81 . 14246. 12098 (. ( 2243. 82. . ! 6. 2005. 60 2005. — 8. 15. 199. 1323. 10987 ! 81 82 !. 12-13 !. 21. !89. 2338.

(94) 2005. 8. 2007. ! 615 (. ) 23. 21. 26 2006. (104. ). 30. 10. 政治大. 立立. ! •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. 2005. 2006. •‧ sit 1990. n. al. 2005. 5. er. io. 7.. y. Nat. !. 83 . Ch. engchi. i n U. v. 5. ! (1). (2). (3). 1-2. ! 83. !!!!. 12-13 !. 17-19. !90. !.

(95) 30 (4) (5) 2005. 12. 3. 84 . ! 8. 2007. 10. 2. 4. 38. 立立. ! ). •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. 85 . (. 政治615 大. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. 2006. ! 84. 14. ! 85. 5 11-15. !91. 11. 2007.

(96) !. 10 86 . 2004 34%. 33%. 政治大. 95%. 立立. y. sit. n. al. er. io. !. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學 2007. Nat. 87 . 2002. Ch. engchi. 86 !. i n U. v. 2005 6 12. 2005. 2004. 15. 33. ! 87. !!!!. — 20. 19-20. !92. 19. !.

(97) 88 . 89 . ! !. 立立. 政治大. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. —. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. 90 . !. 88 !. !!!!. 2007 5. 18 !. ! 89. !!!!. 2007. 10. 90 !. 5 52. !93.

(98) !. !. 2000. 6. ㈻㊫學. •‧ 國. 立立. 政治大. 91 . •‧. n. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat. !. Ch. 2001. engchi. 2. i n U. v. 27. 91 !. 2000. !94. 4. 1.

(99) 92 . 93 . ! 2001. 3. 6. 9. 政治大. 立立. 94 . •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. 95 . •‧. Nat 6. y. sit. al. n. 2002. er. io. !. 96 . Ch. engchi. i n U. v. !. 92 !. !!!!. 2001. 3. 2 !. 93 !. !!!!. NMD. 2001 3. 3 !. 94 !. !!!!. 2001. !!!!. 3. 9 !. ! 95. 2001. 3. 29. 96 !. 2001. !95. 3. 26.

(100) (Henry J. Hyde). 5. !. 立立. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. !. 政治大. 2002. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. 50. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. 97 . !. 97 !. 2003. !96. 2. 25.

(101) 98 . !. 立立. •‧ 國. •‧ y. sit. n. al. er. io. ! 98 99 !. 2004. ㈻㊫學. Nat. !. 政治大. Ch. engchi. 29 30-32. !97. i n U. v. 99 .

(102) 100 . ! 3000 2003. 4 101 . 3600 12500. 2005. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. !. 政治大. 立立. 102 . 2004. (Hiliary Clinton). (historical amnesia). n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. 103 . ! 2006. ! 100. 7. 10. 34. ! 101 ! 102 ! 103. 9. 2003. 4. 23. 27 2005 http://chn.chosun.com/big5/site/data/html_dir/2005/10/26/20051026000018.html. !98. 10. 26.

(103) 104 . (Free Trade 105. Agreement, FTA). . !. 立立. 政治大. •‧ 國. !. •‧. n. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat. !. ㈻㊫學. FTA. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. !104. 2006 ! 105. 10. 10. FTA 2007 4 3 http://chinese.chosun.com/big5/site/data/html_dir/2007/04/03/20070403000011.html. !99.

(104) !. 60. •‧ 國. 政治大. •‧. io. sit. y. Nat. n. al. er. !. 2006. ㈻㊫學. 立立. 2002. Ch. engchi. i n U. v. 2006 2007 FTA. !100.

(105) ! ! 1990 (statecentered). 政治大. 立立. y. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. Nat. sit. n. al. er. io. !. 1 . Mearsheimer). (. ). (. ). (. ). Ch. engchi. i Un. v. (John J.. (great powers). 1 !. 4 2003. 6-7. !101. 2.

(106) (. ). (. ). 立立. 政治大 2 . •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. (latent power). •‧. n. al. 3 . er. io. sit. y. Nat. !. (military power). Ch. engchi. i Un. v. ! (global hegemon). (regional hegemon). ! 2. John J. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics(New York: W. W. Norton, 2001), pp. 30-32. 3 ! Ibid., p. 55.. !102.

(107) 4 . !. 立立. 政治大. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. n. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat. !. Ch. engchi. (Robert O. Keohane). ! (. ). ! ! 4 !. Ibid., pp. 40-42.. !103. i Un. v. 911.

(108) (. ). (a rational utilitymaximizer). (. ) (reciprocity). (reputation) (absolute. gains). (. ). ). 立立. 政治大 (public goods). ㈻㊫學. (free riders). y. Nat. (International Court of Justice, ICJ). io. sit. ). n. al. er. (. (. ). •‧. •‧ 國. (. (relative gains). Ch. engchi. ! !104. i Un. v.

(109) (. ) (macro-level theory) 5 . ! (regime) (Stephen Krasner) (Regimes can be defined as sets of implicit or explicit principles, norms, rules, and decision-making procedures around which actors’ expectations converge in a given area of international relations.). ㈻㊫學. •‧ 國. 立立. 政治大. 6 . (…involve persistent and connected sets of rules(formal or. informal) that prescribe behavioral roles, constrain activity, and shape expectations.) 7. •‧. 8 . n. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat. !. . Ch. engchi. i Un. v. 9 . 5 !. 41. 2 2002 50 Stephen D. Krasner, “Structural Causes and Regimes Consequences: Regimes as Intervening Variables,” in Stephen Krasner ed., International Regimes (NY Cornell University Press, 1983), p. 2 49 ! Robert Keohane, “International Institutions: Two Approaches,” International Studies 7 Quarterly, vol. 32, no. 4, 1988, p. 383 49 ! 8 50 9 ! 49 ! 6. !105.

(110) !. !. 立立. 政治大. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. 10 . 21. 10 !. John J. Mearsheimer, op. cit., pp. 51-53.. !106. i Un. v.

(111) (zero-sum game). ! (prisoner’s dilema). (shadow of future). 立立. (issue linkage). •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學 11 . •‧. !. 政治大. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. !11. 44 2013 26-27 Robert Powell, “Absolute and Relative Gains in International Relations Theory,” The American Political Science Review, vol. 85, no. 4, 1991, pp. 1303-1320.. !107.

(112) ! 2002 2006. 政治大立立 !. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學 •‧. !. y. Nat. n. al. er. io. sit. (Zalmay Khalilzad). Ch. n engchi U. iv. (primacy). 12 . ! 12. Zalmay Khalilzad, Jeremy Shapiro ed., Strategic Appraisal: United States Air and Space Power in the 21st Century(RAND: 2002), pp. 29-32.. !108.

(113) ! (John G. Ikenberry). 立立. 政治大. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. !. n. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat. ! 13. 13 . Ch. engchi. i Un. v. G. John Ikenberry, “America’s Imperial Ambition,” Foreign Affairs, vol. 81, no. 5, 2002, p. 49.. !109.

(114) 14 . !. 立立. 政治大. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. 15 . !. ! 14. ! 15. Woosang Kim, “The ROK-U.S. Alliance and Korea’s Security Strategy for the 21st Century,” Korea Observer, vol. 36, no. 3, Autumn 2005, p. 433. 3 2005 48-49 2 1 2000 1 66-67. !110.

(115) 16 . ! 21. 立立. 政治大. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. n. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat. !. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. 17 . !16. 2006 17 !. 27. (. 1998. !111. ). 4.

(116) 18 . ! (1894 (1904. ). ) 1950. 立立. 政治大. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. n. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat. !. 19 . Ch. engchi. i Un. v. 20 . 18 !. ( 2010. ! 19. ). 97 7. 20 !. 2006. !112. 17.

(117) !. 政治大. 21 . 立立. !. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. i Un. engchi. v. 22 . ! ! 21. , 2006) 47. 5 1. 3. 2008. 3. (. : (. , 2006), p. 5.. 129. ! 22. 39 2000. 10 12. 52 2005. 29. !113. 10.

(118) 立立. ㈻㊫學. 4—1. •‧. •‧ 國. !. 政治大. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. !114. i Un. v.

(119) —. 1994 1998. 2000. 911. ㈻㊫學. •‧ 國. 立立. 政治大. 2003. n. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat. !. •‧. 23 . Ch. engchi. i Un. v. ! ! ! 23 !. 2003. !115. 3. 14.

(120) — 2003 2004. 2004. 2005. ! 立立. 政治大. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學 y. Nat. n. er. io. al. sit. 2006. 24 . Ch. engchi. i Un. v. ! ! ! ! ! ! 24. llsoo David Cho and Meredith Jung-En Woo, “North Korea in 2006: The Year of Living Dangerously,” Asian Survey, vol. 47, no.1, p. 71-72.. !116.

(121) ! 1992 1998. 21. 2003 2008 1978. 25 . 2004. 立立. 26 . 政治大. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. 27 . !. Ch. engchi. ! 25. i Un. v. Jung-Nam Lee, “Faltering Korea-China Relations with the Emergence of the G2 Era,” EAI Asia Security Initiative Working Paper, p. 1. ! 26 30-32 27 ! 137. !117.

(122) 28 . ! 2002. 立立. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. 2004. 8 29 . •‧. 2006. 政治大. y. Nat. n. al. er. io. sit. 1718. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. 30 . (Zbigniew Brzezinski). ! 28 ! 29 30 !. 133-134 142 51. !118.

(123) 31 . ! (proximity). 1910. 1945. (. ). sit. y. ). n. al. er. io 1965. •‧. (. Nat. 32 . ㈻㊫學. •‧ 國. 立立. 政治大. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. !. ! 31. Zbigniew Brzezinski, The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives(New York: Basic Books, 1998) 32 ! 2010 97-98. !119.

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(126) ! 政治大. 立立. 1884. 125. Nat. 40. er. . iv 1961 n U. n. al. sit. 1948. io. !. y. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. 8. 1945. Ch. i e n g c h1990. 1995. 1990. 2000. 2. 1961. 40 !. ( ). 12. 5. 2010. 10. 23. !122.

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(128) 45 . !. 政治大. 立立. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. !. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch —. engchi. ! !. 45 !. 27-28. !124. i Un. v.

(129) 立立. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. !. 政治大. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. Ch. engchi. !. !125. i Un. v. 2002.

(130) ! 20002008. ! !. 政治大. 立立. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. 911. Nat. y. sit. n. al. er. io. 2008. 2000-2003. —. Ch. engchi. !. !126. i Un. v. 2003-.

(131) !. 立立. 政治大. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. !. Ch. engchi. !127. i Un. v.

(132) 2006. !. 立立. 政治大. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學 •‧. 911. n. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat. !. Ch. engchi. !128. i Un. v.

(133) ! 21. —. 立立. —. 政治大. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. n. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat. !. Ch. engchi. !129. i Un. v.

(134) !. 立立. •‧. •‧ 國. ㈻㊫學. !. 政治大. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. al. !. Ch. engchi. ! ! ! ! ! !130. i Un. v.

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