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(1)

Example

• Take the binomial model with two assets.

• In a period, asset one’s price can go from S to S1 or S2.

• In a period, asset two’s price can go from P to P1 or P2.

• Assume

S1

P1 < S

P < S2 P2 to rule out arbitrage opportunities.

(2)

Example (continued)

• For any derivative security, let C1 be its price at time one if asset one’s price moves to S1.

• Let C2 be its price at time one if asset one’s price moves to S2.

• Replicate the derivative by solving

αS1 + βP1 = C1, αS2 + βP2 = C2,

using α units of asset one and β units of asset two.

(3)

Example (continued)

• This yields

α = P2C1 − P1C2

P2S1 − P1S2 and β = S2C1 − S1C2 S2P1 − S1P2 .

• The derivative costs C = αS + βP

= P2S − P S2

P2S1 − P1S2 C1 + P S1 − P1S

P2S1 − P1S2 C2.

(4)

Example (concluded)

• It is easy to verify that C

P = p C1

P1 + (1 − p) C2 P2 . – Above,

p ≡ (S/P ) − (S2/P2) (S1/P1) − (S2/P2).

• The derivative’s price using asset two as numeraire is thus a martingale under the risk-neutral probability p.

• The expected returns of the two assets are irrelevant.

(5)

Brownian Motion

a

• Brownian motion is a stochastic process { X(t), t ≥ 0 } with the following properties.

1. X(0) = 0, unless stated otherwise.

2. for any 0 ≤ t0 < t1 < · · · < tn, the random variables X(tk) − X(tk−1)

for 1 ≤ k ≤ n are independent.b

3. for 0 ≤ s < t, X(t) − X(s) is normally distributed with mean µ(t − s) and variance σ2(t − s), where µ and σ 6= 0 are real numbers.

aRobert Brown (1773–1858).

bSo X(t) − X(s) is independent of X(r) for r ≤ s < t.

(6)

Brownian Motion (concluded)

• Such a process will be called a (µ, σ) Brownian motion with drift µ and variance σ2.

• The existence and uniqueness of such a process is guaranteed by Wiener’s theorem.a

• Although Brownian motion is a continuous function of t with probability one, it is almost nowhere differentiable.

• The (0, 1) Brownian motion is also called the Wiener process.

aNorbert Wiener (1894–1964).

(7)

Example

• If { X(t), t ≥ 0 } is the Wiener process, then X(t) − X(s) ∼ N (0, t − s).

• A (µ, σ) Brownian motion Y = { Y (t), t ≥ 0 } can be expressed in terms of the Wiener process:

Y (t) = µt + σX(t). (45)

• Note that Y (t + s) − Y (t) ∼ N (µs, σ2s).

(8)

Brownian Motion Is a Random Walk in Continuous Time

Claim 1 A (µ, σ) Brownian motion is the limiting case of random walk.

• A particle moves ∆x to the left with probability 1 − p.

• It moves to the right with probability p after ∆t time.

• Assume n ≡ t/∆t is an integer.

• Its position at time t is

Y (t) ≡ ∆x (X1 + X2 + · · · + Xn) .

(9)

Brownian Motion as Limit of Random Walk (continued)

• (continued) – Here

Xi



+1 if the ith move is to the right,

−1 if the ith move is to the left.

– Xi are independent with

Prob[ Xi = 1 ] = p = 1 − Prob[ Xi = −1 ].

• Recall E[ Xi ] = 2p − 1 and Var[ Xi ] = 1 − (2p − 1)2.

(10)

Brownian Motion as Limit of Random Walk (continued)

• Therefore,

E[ Y (t) ] = n(∆x)(2p − 1), Var[ Y (t) ] = n(∆x)2 £

1 − (2p − 1)2 ¤ .

• With ∆x ≡ σ√

∆t and p ≡ [ 1 + (µ/σ)√

∆t ]/2, E[ Y (t) ] = nσ√

∆t (µ/σ)√

∆t = µt, Var[ Y (t) ] = nσ2∆t £

1 − (µ/σ)2∆t¤

→ σ2t, as ∆t → 0.

(11)

Brownian Motion as Limit of Random Walk (concluded)

• Thus, { Y (t), t ≥ 0 } converges to a (µ, σ) Brownian motion by the central limit theorem.

• Brownian motion with zero drift is the limiting case of symmetric random walk by choosing µ = 0.

• Note that

Var[ Y (t + ∆t) − Y (t) ]

=Var[ ∆x Xn+1 ] = (∆x)2 × Var[ Xn+1 ] → σ2∆t.

• Similarity to the the BOPM: The p is identical to the probability in Eq. (23) on p. 239 and ∆x = ln u.

(12)

Geometric Brownian Motion

• Let X ≡ { X(t), t ≥ 0 } be a Brownian motion process.

• The process

{ Y (t) ≡ eX(t), t ≥ 0 }, is called geometric Brownian motion.

• Suppose further that X is a (µ, σ) Brownian motion.

• X(t) ∼ N (µt, σ2t) with moment generating function E

h

esX(t) i

= E [ Y (t)s ] = eµts+(σ2ts2/2) from Eq. (16) on p 141.

(13)

Geometric Brownian Motion (continued)

• In particular,

E[ Y (t) ] = eµt+(σ2t/2), Var[ Y (t) ] = E £

Y (t)2 ¤

− E[ Y (t) ]2

= e2µt+σ2t

³

eσ2t − 1

´ .

(14)

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Time (t) -1

1 2 3 4 5 6 Y(t)

(15)

Geometric Brownian Motion (continued)

• It is useful for situations in which percentage changes are independent and identically distributed.

• Let Yn denote the stock price at time n and Y0 = 1.

• Assume relative returns

Xi Yi Yi−1

are independent and identically distributed.

(16)

Geometric Brownian Motion (concluded)

• Then

ln Yn =

Xn i=1

ln Xi

is a sum of independent, identically distributed random variables.

• Thus { ln Yn, n ≥ 0 } is approximately Brownian motion.

– And { Yn, n ≥ 0 } is approximately geometric Brownian motion.

(17)

Continuous-Time Financial Mathematics

(18)

A proof is that which convinces a reasonable man;

a rigorous proof is that which convinces an unreasonable man.

— Mark Kac (1914–1984) The pursuit of mathematics is a divine madness of the human spirit.

— Alfred North Whitehead (1861–1947), Science and the Modern World

(19)

Stochastic Integrals

• Use W ≡ { W (t), t ≥ 0 } to denote the Wiener process.

• The goal is to develop integrals of X from a class of stochastic processes,a

It(X) ≡ Z t

0

X dW, t ≥ 0.

• It(X) is a random variable called the stochastic integral of X with respect to W .

• The stochastic process { It(X), t ≥ 0 } will be denoted by R

X dW .

aIto (1915–).

(20)

Stochastic Integrals (concluded)

• Typical requirements for X in financial applications are:

– Prob[Rt

0 X2(s) ds < ∞ ] = 1 for all t ≥ 0 or the stronger R t

0 E[ X2(s) ] ds < ∞.

– The information set at time t includes the history of X and W up to that point in time.

– But it contains nothing about the evolution of X or W after t (nonanticipating, so to speak).

– The future cannot influence the present.

• { X(s), 0 ≤ s ≤ t } is independent of { W (t + u) − W (t), u > 0 }.

(21)

Ito Integral

• A theory of stochastic integration.

• As with calculus, it starts with step functions.

• A stochastic process { X(t) } is simple if there exist 0 = t0 < t1 < · · · such that

X(t) = X(tk−1) for t ∈ [ tk−1, tk), k = 1, 2, . . . for any realization (see figure next page).

(22)

t0 t

1 t

2 t

3 t

4 t

5

X t

a f

t

(23)

Ito Integral (continued)

• The Ito integral of a simple process is defined as It(X) ≡

n−1X

k=0

X(tk)[ W (tk+1) − W (tk) ], (46) where tn = t.

– The integrand X is evaluated at tk, not tk+1.

• Define the Ito integral of more general processes as a limiting random variable of the Ito integral of simple stochastic processes.

(24)

Ito Integral (continued)

• Let X = { X(t), t ≥ 0 } be a general stochastic process.

• Then there exists a random variable It(X), unique almost certainly, such that It(Xn) converges in probability to It(X) for each sequence of simple

stochastic processes X1, X2, . . . such that Xn converges in probability to X.

• If X is continuous with probability one, then It(Xn) converges in probability to It(X) as

δn ≡ max1≤k≤n(tk − tk−1) goes to zero.

(25)

Ito Integral (concluded)

• It is a fundamental fact that R

X dW is continuous almost surely.

• The following theorem says the Ito integral is a martingale.

– A corollary is the mean value formula E

" Z b

a

X dW

#

= 0.

Theorem 15 The Ito integral R

X dW is a martingale.

(26)

Discrete Approximation

• Recall Eq. (46) on p. 455.

• The following simple stochastic process { bX(t) } can be used in place of X to approximate the stochastic

integral Rt

0 X dW ,

X(s) ≡ X(tb k−1) for s ∈ [ tk−1, tk), k = 1, 2, . . . , n.

• Note the nonanticipating feature of bX.

– The information up to time s,

{ bX(t), W (t), 0 ≤ t ≤ s },

cannot determine the future evolution of X or W .

(27)

Discrete Approximation (concluded)

• Suppose we defined the stochastic integral as

n−1X

k=0

X(tk+1)[ W (tk+1) − W (tk) ].

• Then we would be using the following different simple stochastic process in the approximation,

Y (s) ≡ X(tb k) for s ∈ [ tk−1, tk), k = 1, 2, . . . , n.

• This clearly anticipates the future evolution of X.

(28)

X

t

X

t

$ Y

(a) (b)

$X

(29)

Ito Process

• The stochastic process X = { Xt, t ≥ 0 } that solves Xt = X0 +

Z t

0

a(Xs, s) ds + Z t

0

b(Xs, s) dWs, t ≥ 0 is called an Ito process.

– X0 is a scalar starting point.

– { a(Xt, t) : t ≥ 0 } and { b(Xt, t) : t ≥ 0 } are stochastic processes satisfying certain regularity conditions.

• The terms a(Xt, t) and b(Xt, t) are the drift and the diffusion, respectively.

(30)

Ito Process (continued)

• A shorthanda is the following stochastic differential equation for the Ito differential dXt,

dXt = a(Xt, t) dt + b(Xt, t) dWt. (47) – Or simply dXt = at dt + bt dWt.

• This is Brownian motion with an instantaneous drift at and an instantaneous variance b2t.

• X is a martingale if the drift at is zero by Theorem 15 (p. 457).

aPaul Langevin (1904).

(31)

Ito Process (concluded)

• dW is normally distributed with mean zero and variance dt.

• An equivalent form to Eq. (47) is dXt = at dt + bt

dt ξ, (48)

where ξ ∼ N (0, 1).

• This formulation makes it easy to derive Monte Carlo simulation algorithms.

(32)

Euler Approximation

• The following approximation follows from Eq. (48), X(tb n+1)

= bX(tn) + a( bX(tn), tn) ∆t + b( bX(tn), tn) ∆W (tn),

(49) where tn ≡ n∆t.

• It is called the Euler or Euler-Maruyama method.

• Under mild conditions, bX(tn) converges to X(tn).

• Recall that ∆W (tn) should be interpreted as W (tn+1) − W (tn) instead of W (tn) − W (tn−1).

(33)

More Discrete Approximations

• Under fairly loose regularity conditions, approximation (49) on p. 464 can be replaced by

X(tb n+1)

= bX(tn) + a( bX(tn), tn) ∆t + b( bX(tn), tn)

∆t Y (tn).

– Y (t0), Y (t1), . . . are independent and identically distributed with zero mean and unit variance.

(34)

More Discrete Approximations (concluded)

• An even simpler discrete approximation scheme:

X(tb n+1)

= bX(tn) + a( bX(tn), tn) ∆t + b( bX(tn), tn)

∆t ξ.

– Prob[ ξ = 1 ] = Prob[ ξ = −1 ] = 1/2.

– Note that E[ ξ ] = 0 and Var[ ξ ] = 1.

• This clearly defines a binomial model. bX converges to X.

(35)

Trading and the Ito Integral

• Consider an Ito process dSt = µt dt + σt dWt. – St is the vector of security prices at time t.

• Let φt be a trading strategy denoting the quantity of each type of security held at time t.

• Hence the stochastic process φtSt is the value of the portfolio φt at time t.

• φt dSt ≡ φtt dt + σt dWt) represents the change in the value from security price changes occurring at time t.

(36)

Trading and the Ito Integral (concluded)

• The equivalent Ito integral, GT(φ) ≡

Z T

0

φt dSt =

Z T

0

φtµt dt +

Z T

0

φtσt dWt, measures the gains realized by the trading strategy over the period [ 0, T ].

(37)

Ito’s Lemma

A smooth function of an Ito process is itself an Ito process.

Theorem 16 Suppose f : R → R is twice continuously differentiable and dX = at dt + bt dW . Then f (X) is the Ito process,

f (Xt)

= f (X0) + Z t

0

f0(Xs) as ds + Z t

0

f0(Xs) bs dW +1

2 Z t

0

f00(Xs) b2s ds for t ≥ 0.

(38)

Ito’s Lemma (continued)

• In differential form, Ito’s lemma becomes df (X) = f0(X) a dt + f0(X) b dW + 1

2 f00(X) b2 dt.

(50)

• Compared with calculus, the interesting part is the third term on the right-hand side.

• A convenient formulation of Ito’s lemma is df (X) = f0(X) dX + 1

2 f00(X)(dX)2.

(39)

Ito’s Lemma (continued)

• We are supposed to multiply out

(dX)2 = (a dt + b dW )2 symbolically according to

× dW dt

dW dt 0

dt 0 0

– The (dW )2 = dt entry is justified by a known result.

• This form is easy to remember because of its similarity to the Taylor expansion.

(40)

Ito’s Lemma (continued)

Theorem 17 (Higher-Dimensional Ito’s Lemma) Let W1, W2, . . . , Wn be independent Wiener processes and

X ≡ (X1, X2, . . . , Xm) be a vector process. Suppose

f : Rm → R is twice continuously differentiable and Xi is an Ito process with dXi = ai dt + Pn

j=1 bij dWj. Then df (X) is an Ito process with the differential,

df (X) =

Xm i=1

fi(X) dXi + 1 2

Xm i=1

Xm k=1

fik(X) dXi dXk, where fi ≡ ∂f /∂xi and fik ≡ ∂2f /∂xi∂xk.

(41)

Ito’s Lemma (continued)

• The multiplication table for Theorem 17 is

× dWi dt

dWk δik dt 0

dt 0 0

in which

δik =



1 if i = k, 0 otherwise.

(42)

Ito’s Lemma (continued)

Theorem 18 (Alternative Ito’s Lemma) Let W1, W2, . . . , Wm be Wiener processes and

X ≡ (X1, X2, . . . , Xm) be a vector process. Suppose

f : Rm → R is twice continuously differentiable and Xi is an Ito process with dXi = ai dt + bi dWi. Then df (X) is the following Ito process,

df (X) =

Xm i=1

fi(X) dXi + 1 2

Xm i=1

Xm k=1

fik(X) dXi dXk.

(43)

Ito’s Lemma (concluded)

• The multiplication table for Theorem 18 is

× dWi dt

dWk ρik dt 0

dt 0 0

• Here, ρik denotes the correlation between dWi and dWk.

(44)

Geometric Brownian Motion

• Consider the geometric Brownian motion process Y (t) ≡ eX(t)

– X(t) is a (µ, σ) Brownian motion.

– Hence dX = µ dt + σ dW by Eq. (45) on p. 439.

• As ∂Y /∂X = Y and ∂2Y /∂X2 = Y , Ito’s formula (50) on p. 470 implies

dY = Y dX + (1/2) Y (dX)2

= Y (µ dt + σ dW ) + (1/2) Y (µ dt + σ dW )2

= Y (µ dt + σ dW ) + (1/2) Y σ2 dt.

(45)

Geometric Brownian Motion (concluded)

• Hence

dY

Y = ¡

µ + σ2/2¢

dt + σ dW.

• The annualized instantaneous rate of return is µ + σ2/2 not µ.

(46)

Product of Geometric Brownian Motion Processes

• Let

dY /Y = a dt + b dWY , dZ/Z = f dt + g dWZ.

• Consider the Ito process U ≡ Y Z.

• Apply Ito’s lemma (Theorem 18 on p. 474):

dU = Z dY + Y dZ + dY dZ

= ZY (a dt + b dWY ) + Y Z(f dt + g dWZ) +Y Z(a dt + b dWY )(f dt + g dWZ)

= U (a + f + bgρ) dt + U b dWY + U g dWZ.

(47)

Product of Geometric Brownian Motion Processes (continued)

• The product of two (or more) correlated geometric Brownian motion processes thus remains geometric Brownian motion.

• Note that

Y = exp£¡

a − b2/2¢

dt + b dWY ¤ , Z = exp£¡

f − g2/2¢

dt + g dWZ¤ , U = exp£ ¡

a + f − ¡

b2 + g2¢

/2¢

dt + b dWY + g dWZ ¤ .

(48)

Product of Geometric Brownian Motion Processes (concluded)

• ln U is Brownian motion with a mean equal to the sum of the means of ln Y and ln Z.

• This holds even if Y and Z are correlated.

• Finally, ln Y and ln Z have correlation ρ.

(49)

Quotients of Geometric Brownian Motion Processes

• Suppose Y and Z are drawn from p. 478.

• Let U ≡ Y /Z.

• We now show that dU

U = (a − f + g2 − bgρ) dt + b dWY − g dWZ.

(51)

• Keep in mind that dWY and dWZ have correlation ρ.

(50)

Quotients of Geometric Brownian Motion Processes (concluded)

• The multidimensional Ito’s lemma (Theorem 18 on p. 474) can be employed to show that

dU

= (1/Z) dY − (Y /Z2) dZ − (1/Z2) dY dZ + (Y /Z3) (dZ)2

= (1/Z)(aY dt + bY dWY ) − (Y /Z2)(f Z dt + gZ dWZ)

−(1/Z2)(bgY Zρ dt) + (Y /Z3)(g2Z2 dt)

= U (a dt + b dWY) − U (f dt + g dWZ)

−U (bgρ dt) + U (g2 dt)

= U (a − f + g2 − bgρ) dt + U b dWY − U g dWZ.

(51)

Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process

• The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process:

dX = −κX dt + σ dW, where κ, σ ≥ 0.

• It is known that

E[ X(t) ] = e−κ(t−t0) E[ x0 ], Var[ X(t) ] = σ2

³

1 − e−2κ(t−t0)

´

+ e−2κ(t−t0) Var[ x0], Cov[ X(s), X(t) ] = σ2

e−κ(t−s) h

1 − e−2κ(s−t0) i

+e−κ(t+s−2t0)Var[ x0],

for t0 ≤ s ≤ t and X(t0) = x0.

(52)

Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process (continued)

• X(t) is normally distributed if x0 is a constant or normally distributed.

• X is said to be a normal process.

• E[ x0 ] = x0 and Var[ x0 ] = 0 if x0 is a constant.

• The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process has the following mean reversion property.

– When X > 0, X is pulled X toward zero.

– When X < 0, it is pulled toward zero again.

(53)

Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process (continued)

• Another version:

dX = κ(µ − X) dt + σ dW, where σ ≥ 0.

• Given X(t0) = x0, a constant, it is known that

E[ X(t) ] = µ + (x0 − µ) e−κ(t−t0), (52) Var[ X(t) ] = σ2

h

1 − e−2κ(t−t0) i

, for t0 ≤ t.

(54)

Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process (concluded)

• The mean and standard deviation are roughly µ and σ/√

2κ , respectively.

• For large t, the probability of X < 0 is extremely

unlikely in any finite time interval when µ > 0 is large relative to σ/√

2κ (say µ > 4σ/√

2κ).

• The process is mean-reverting.

– X tends to move toward µ.

– Useful for modeling term structure, stock price volatility, and stock price return.

(55)

Continuous-Time Derivatives Pricing

(56)

I have hardly met a mathematician who was capable of reasoning.

— Plato (428 B.C.–347 B.C.)

(57)

Toward the Black-Scholes Differential Equation

• The price of any derivative on a non-dividend-paying stock must satisfy a partial differential equation.

• The key step is recognizing that the same random process drives both securities.

• As their prices are perfectly correlated, we figure out the amount of stock such that the gain from it offsets

exactly the loss from the derivative.

• The removal of uncertainty forces the portfolio’s return to be the riskless rate.

(58)

Assumptions

• The stock price follows dS = µS dt + σS dW .

• There are no dividends.

• Trading is continuous, and short selling is allowed.

• There are no transactions costs or taxes.

• All securities are infinitely divisible.

• The term structure of riskless rates is flat at r.

• There is unlimited riskless borrowing and lending.

• t is the current time, T is the expiration time, and τ ≡ T − t.

(59)

Black-Scholes Differential Equation

• Let C be the price of a derivative on S.

• From Ito’s lemma (p. 472), dC =

µ

µS ∂C

∂S + ∂C

∂t + 1

2 σ2S2 2C

∂S2

dt + σS ∂C

∂S dW.

– The same W drives both C and S.

• Short one derivative and long ∂C/∂S shares of stock (call it Π).

• By construction,

Π = −C + S(∂C/∂S).

(60)

Black-Scholes Differential Equation (continued)

• The change in the value of the portfolio at time dt is dΠ = −dC + ∂C

∂S dS.

• Substitute the formulas for dC and dS into the partial differential equation to yield

dΠ = µ

−∂C

∂t 1

2 σ2S2 2C

∂S2

dt.

• As this equation does not involve dW , the portfolio is riskless during dt time: dΠ = rΠ dt.

(61)

Black-Scholes Differential Equation (concluded)

• So µ

∂C

∂t + 1

2 σ2S2 2C

∂S2

dt = r µ

C − S ∂C

∂S

dt.

• Equate the terms to finally obtain

∂C

∂t + rS ∂C

∂S + 1

2 σ2S2 2C

∂S2 = rC.

• When there is a dividend yield q,

∂C

∂t + (r − q) S ∂C

∂S + 1

2 σ2S2 2C

∂S2 = rC.

(62)

Rephrase

• The Black-Scholes differential equation can be expressed in terms of sensitivity numbers,

Θ + rS∆ + 1

2 σ2S2Γ = rC. (53)

• Identity (53) leads to an alternative way of computing Θ numerically from ∆ and Γ.

• When a portfolio is delta-neutral, Θ + 1

2 σ2S2Γ = rC.

– A definite relation thus exists between Γ and Θ.

(63)

PDEs for Asian Options

• Add the new variable A(t) ≡ R t

0 S(u) du.

• Then the value V of the Asian option satisfies this two-dimensional PDE:a

∂V

∂t + rS ∂V

∂S + 1

2 σ2S2 2V

∂S2 + S ∂V

∂A = rV.

• The terminal conditions are V (T, S, A) = max

µA

T − X, 0

for call, V (T, S, A) = max

µ

X − A T , 0

for put.

aKemna and Vorst (1990).

(64)

PDEs for Asian Options (continued)

• The two-dimensional PDE produces algorithms similar to that on pp. 329ff.

• But one-dimensional PDEs are available for Asian options.a

• For example, Veˇceˇr (2001) derives the following PDE for Asian calls:

∂u

∂t + r µ

1 − t

T − z

∂u

∂z +

¡1 − Tt − z¢2 σ2 2

2u

∂z2 = 0 with the terminal condition u(T, z) = max(z, 0).

aRogers and Shi (1995); Veˇceˇr (2001); Dubois and Leli`evre (2005).

(65)

PDEs for Asian Options (concluded)

• For Asian puts:

∂u

∂t + r µ t

T − 1 − z

∂u

∂z +

¡ t

T − 1 − z¢2 σ2 2

2u

∂z2 = 0 with the same terminal condition.

• One-dimensional PDEs lead to highly efficient numerical methods.

(66)

Hedging

(67)

When Professors Scholes and Merton and I invested in warrants, Professor Merton lost the most money.

And I lost the least.

— Fischer Black (1938–1995)

(68)

Delta Hedge

• The delta (hedge ratio) of a derivative f is defined as

∆ ≡ ∂f /∂S.

• Thus ∆f ≈ ∆ × ∆S for relatively small changes in the stock price, ∆S.

• A delta-neutral portfolio is hedged in the sense that it is immunized against small changes in the stock price.

• A trading strategy that dynamically maintains a delta-neutral portfolio is called delta hedge.

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