CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FEBRUARY / 2007 No.2

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CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

FEBRUARY / 2007

No.2

The Composite CPI reflects the impacts of price changes on the general population. The CPI-A relates to about 49% of households, which have an average monthly expenditure of MOP 3,000 to MOP 9,999, whereas the CPI-B relates to about 31% of households, which have an average monthly expenditure of MOP 10,000 to MOP 19,999.

The Composite CPI for February 2007 rose by 1.44% over January to 112.03. The indices of Recreation & culture;

Food & non-alcoholic beverages; Housing & fuels; and Miscellaneous goods & services recorded notable increase of 6.74%, 2.04%, 1.60% and 1.41% respectively, on account of the effects of the Chinese New Year. The increments were attributable to higher charges for hairdressing services, outbound package tours and meals bought away from home, as well as the general price increase of the food items, which was accompanied with higher rentals for housing and rising charges for the maintenance and repair services of dwelling. In addition, dearer prices of air tickets drove the index of Transport up by 0.71%.

However, the price index of Clothing & footwear was the only section that recorded decrease, down by 2.07%, as a result of seasonal sale of Winter clothing and footwear.

As the Chinese New Year took place in February this year but in January last year, the Composite CPI for February 2007 registered a larger year-on-year increase of 4.94%. Observing the changes in the average indices for the first two months can lessen the anomalous impact to the consumer prices caused by the different timing of the Chinese New Year. The average Composite CPI for the first two months of 2007 went up by 4.38% compared with the same period of 2006. For the 12 months ended February 2007, the average Composite CPI rose by 4.94% over the previous period.

In addition, the CPI-A and CPI-B for February 2007 were 113.11 and 111.68, up by 1.36% and 1.40%

respectively compared with January.

TABLE 1 - CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR FEBRUARY 2007

7/2004 - 6/2005 = 100 Unit Composite CPI CPI-A CPI-B Index of the current month 112.03 113.11 111.68

Annual rate of change ended February 2007 % 4.94 5.50 4.76 Month-to-month rate of change % 1.44 1.36 1.40

Year-on-year rate of change % 4.94 5.04 4.85

CHART 1 - MONTHLY RATE OF CHANGE OF THE COMPOSITE CPI BY SECTION %

Overall index +1.44%

Recreation and culture 6.74 Food and non-alcoholic beverages 2.04 Housing and fuels 1.60 Miscellaneous goods and services 1.41 Transport 0.71 Health 0.23 Household goods and furnishings 0.15 Tobacco and alcoholic beverages 0.03 Communication 0.02

Clothing and footwear -2.07

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TABLE 2 - TIME SERIES OF THE COMPOSITE CPI

7/2004 - 6/2005 = 100

Year/

Month

Overall index

Food and non- alcoholic beverages

Alcoholic beverages

and tobacco

Clothing and footwear

Housing and fuels

Household goods and furnishings

Health Transport Communi- cation

Recreation and culture

Education

Miscel- laneous

goods and services

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Weight 100.00 29.05 1.04 4.70 21.81 2.95 3.07 7.05 4.74 5.97 11.12 8.51

2006

2 106.76 105.72 104.64 97.82 117.74 102.10 101.30 103.28 98.76 101.66 107.61 100.77 3 106.63 105.50 104.75 96.87 118.53 102.18 101.47 103.60 94.45 101.01 107.61 100.94 4 107.55 106.44 104.72 98.71 120.18 102.20 101.51 105.45 94.10 102.49 107.62 100.93 5 108.16 106.92 104.74 100.58 121.04 102.25 101.73 105.96 97.66 101.35 107.62 101.47 6 108.62 108.68 104.74 100.89 120.89 102.33 101.90 107.01 94.62 101.88 107.62 101.47 7 108.67 107.97 104.80 96.43 122.24 102.43 101.96 107.99 94.33 103.28 107.62 101.78 8 108.75 108.17 104.81 94.44 122.73 102.29 102.07 108.04 94.30 103.40 107.62 101.72 9 109.32 107.57 104.77 93.22 123.39 102.44 101.82 105.90 94.53 102.07 114.13 103.65 10 109.70 107.86 104.73 95.93 123.80 102.53 101.96 105.40 97.14 101.88 114.13 103.64 11 109.94 107.81 104.83 98.28 124.46 102.54 102.10 105.41 97.11 101.63 114.13 103.71 12 110.61 108.45 105.02 99.83 125.60 102.60 102.75 106.20 97.09 102.77 114.14 103.93

2007

1 110.44 109.50 104.99 99.10 124.78 103.14 102.97 105.43 93.48 101.65 114.14 104.04 2 112.03 111.73 105.02 97.05 126.77 103.29 103.20 106.18 93.49 108.50 114.14 105.50

TABLE 3 – CHANGES OF THE COMPOSITE CPI, CPI-A AND CPI-B AT SECTION LEVEL

%

Rates of change

Jan.-Feb. 2007/

Jan.-Feb. 2006 Feb. 2007/ Feb. 2006 Feb. 2007/ Jan. 2007

Contribution to monthly rate of change in

overall index Goods and services

Com- posite

CPI

CPI-A CPI-B Com- posite CPI

CPI-A CPI-B Com- posite

CPI

CPI-A CPI-B

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Overall index 4.38 4.69 4.29 4.94 5.04 4.85 1.44 1.36 1.40 100.00 100.00 100.00 Food and non-alcoholic beverages 4.98 5.01 5.01 5.68 5.82 5.66 2.04 2.32 1.92 40.82 54.89 41.38 Alcoholic beverages and tobacco 0.35 0.38 0.35 0.37 0.41 0.36 0.03 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.02 Clothing and footwear -0.76 -1.22 -0.23 -0.79 -1.27 -0.13 -2.07 -2.04 -1.96 -6.08 -3.87 -6.35 Housing and fuels 7.89 7.13 7.70 7.68 6.77 7.48 1.60 1.43 1.58 27.46 30.44 26.10 Household goods and furnishings 1.52 2.14 1.78 1.17 2.03 1.46 0.15 0.19 0.12 0.28 0.17 0.21 Health 1.84 2.03 2.05 1.88 2.09 2.12 0.23 0.23 0.27 0.46 0.43 0.52 Transport 2.11 2.05 2.26 2.80 2.73 2.81 0.71 0.68 0.57 3.33 2.27 2.60 Communication -5.36 -5.66 -5.61 -5.33 -5.64 -5.57 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.05 Recreation and culture 2.31 1.81 1.90 6.73 3.80 6.30 6.74 3.18 6.76 25.80 9.58 25.92

Education 6.07 7.00 5.81 6.07 7.00 5.81 o o o 0.02 0.03 0.01

Miscellaneous goods and services 3.44 3.85 3.63 4.69 5.20 4.98 1.41 1.57 1.53 7.85 5.97 9.54

o

Result is less than half of the unit employed - Absolute value equals zero

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TABLE 4 - TIME SERIES OF CPI-A

7/2004 - 6/2005 = 100

Year/

Month

Overall index

Alcoholic beverages

and tobacco

Housing and fuels

Education

Miscel- laneous goods

and services

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Weight 100.00 32.83 1.34 2.93 26.07 1.33 2.76 4.82 5.12 4.41 12.88 5.50

2006

2 107.69 105.60 104.93 97.25 117.19 101.95 101.42 102.86 98.90 103.00 108.12 100.97 3 107.52 105.31 105.05 96.16 117.93 102.11 101.63 103.34 94.00 102.68 108.12 101.05 4 108.44 106.28 105.01 98.51 119.59 102.16 101.65 105.05 93.79 103.22 108.13 101.09 5 109.10 106.77 105.04 100.05 120.39 102.34 101.90 105.59 97.68 102.83 108.13 101.48 6 109.66 109.12 105.04 100.05 120.05 102.46 102.11 106.49 94.24 102.90 108.13 101.50 7 109.67 108.12 105.06 95.76 121.50 102.67 102.18 107.38 94.07 103.36 108.13 101.98 8 109.81 108.42 105.07 94.20 121.84 102.48 102.31 107.40 94.04 103.36 108.13 101.96 9 110.67 107.59 105.06 92.68 122.37 102.90 102.02 105.47 94.17 104.07 115.68 104.22 10 111.02 107.84 105.04 95.48 122.58 103.02 102.23 104.93 97.25 103.92 115.68 104.26 11 111.18 107.62 105.13 97.50 123.22 102.85 102.37 104.96 97.23 103.79 115.68 104.35 12 111.75 108.15 105.33 99.07 124.30 102.89 103.06 105.55 97.22 104.11 115.69 104.53

2007

1 111.60 109.21 105.30 98.02 123.36 103.83 103.30 104.95 93.31 103.61 115.69 104.57 2 113.11 111.75 105.36 96.02 125.13 104.03 103.53 105.67 93.32 106.91 115.69 106.22

TABLE 5 - TIME SERIES OF CPI-B

7/2004 - 6/2005 = 100

Year/

Month

Overall index

Alcoholic beverages

and tobacco

Housing and fuels

Education

Miscel- laneous goods

and services

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Weight 100.00 30.24 1.01 5.03 20.49 2.68 2.85 6.58 4.92 5.82 11.20 9.18

2006

2 106.52 105.81 104.74 97.48 117.60 102.06 101.45 104.14 98.45 101.95 106.71 100.83 3 106.41 105.63 104.83 96.60 118.39 102.17 101.59 104.65 94.63 101.24 106.71 101.00 4 107.32 106.57 104.80 98.24 120.08 102.20 101.64 106.76 94.28 102.59 106.72 101.00 5 107.91 107.04 104.83 99.98 120.87 102.26 101.83 107.46 97.46 101.46 106.72 101.61 6 108.32 108.50 104.82 100.29 120.73 102.38 102.02 108.55 94.75 101.89 106.72 101.59 7 108.36 107.93 104.88 95.93 122.12 102.50 102.09 109.55 94.46 103.15 106.72 101.87 8 108.42 108.07 104.89 94.12 122.60 102.36 102.23 109.60 94.42 103.33 106.72 101.81 9 109.00 107.56 104.85 93.08 123.24 102.57 102.04 107.20 94.64 101.99 112.91 103.86 10 109.37 107.88 104.82 95.84 123.58 102.67 102.22 106.59 96.85 101.76 112.91 103.85 11 109.63 107.89 104.92 98.45 124.22 102.71 102.40 106.63 96.82 101.49 112.91 103.93 12 110.30 108.60 105.11 99.97 125.36 102.77 103.09 107.24 96.80 102.62 112.91 104.14

2007

1 110.14 109.69 105.08 99.30 124.43 103.43 103.32 106.45 92.94 101.51 112.91 104.25 2 111.68 111.80 105.12 97.36 126.39 103.55 103.60 107.06 92.96 108.37 112.91 105.85

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TABLE 6 - AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES OF SELECTED FOOD ITEMS

MOP

Average retail prices

2006 2007 Items Unit

February September October November December January February

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Rice

Rice – Thailand (pre-packaged,

ordinary) kg 6.01 6.13 6.27 6.40 6.42 6.42 6.42

Fresh beef

Beef kg 39.35 40.85 40.61 40.24 40.85 40.90 40.61

Shin beef kg 39.20 40.73 40.50 41.18 41.09 41.37 40.93 Fresh pork

Lean meat kg 34.87 34.18 33.74 34.14 34.30 34.14 33.92 Pork chop kg 35.79 34.77 33.83 33.29 33.65 34.05 33.92 Live poultry

Chicken kg 26.74 26.45 26.45 26.45 26.74 26.78 26.98 Fresh salt-water fish

Golden thread kg 33.91 35.10 32.43 34.74 36.16 38.05 40.08 Pomfret kg 64.19 72.86 66.73 61.68 71.28 62.39 72.91

Sole kg 65.77 74.17 72.42 65.58 55.81 62.34 76.37

Fresh fresh-water fish

Grass carp kg 21.57 20.60 20.69 20.47 19.87 19.99 20.82 Head of “Tai U” kg 39.07 36.70 37.78 37.73 36.94 36.80 39.06 Fresh-water perch kg 53.36 46.85 45.98 45.21 55.01 55.53 53.70 Egg

Hen egg each 0.70 0.73 0.76 0.74 0.70 0.85 0.95

Fruit

Orange each 3.05 3.20 3.25 2.93 2.93 3.08 3.30

Banana kg 7.00 6.66 6.67 6.67 6.67 6.67 7.05

Apple each 2.69 3.35 3.46 3.14 2.85 2.82 3.20

Vegetable

Chinese cabbage kg 7.54 8.91 8.13 7.76 7.22 6.89 8.51 Choy sum kg 9.23 10.78 11.14 10.31 9.66 9.53 11.48 Chinese lettuce kg 5.79 9.23 8.10 7.29 7.27 6.33 6.63 Hairy gourd kg 8.05 7.03 7.54 7.27 8.20 7.88 8.69

Tomato kg 7.82 7.99 8.75 8.55 8.30 7.99 7.53

Carrot kg 7.34 8.33 8.55 8.22 8.48 8.81 8.92

a. No imports were recorded during the period

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CHART 2 - MOVEMENTS OF THE COMPOSITE CPI

-1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00

February 2006 April June August October December February 2007

% Month-to-month rate of change Year-on-year rate of change

CHART 3 - MOVEMENTS OF CPI-A

-1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00

%

Month-to-month rate of change Year-on-year rate of change

CHART 4 - MOVEMENTS OF CPI-B

-1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00

% Month-to-month rate of change Year-on-year rate of change

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CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FEBRUARY / 2007 No.2