-Methods of the water-energy-food nexus

Human-Environmental Security in Asia-Pacific Ring of Fire - Water-Energy-Food Nexus -

Aiko ENDO, Research Institute for Humanity and Nature (RIHN) ¹

International Workshop on Food Energy Water Nexus in Taipei on September 5^th, 2016

Outline of my talk

1. Background of nexus studies

2. A review of water-energy food nexus research 3. Introduction of RIHN nexus project

-Methods of the water-energy-food nexus

2

Background of nexus studies

3

What’s “nexus” and “tradeoff” ?

✔ Nexus ：

1. A connection or series of connections linking two or more things 1.1 A connected group or series

✔ Tradeoff ：

A balance achieved between two desirable but incompatible features; a compromise (Oxford dictionaries）

Water

Energy Food

Price

Quality ₄

5

Water-Energy-Food nexus：

Water for Energy? or Water for food?

Ilocos Norte, the Philippines  Water for Energy

Solar panels need to be cleaned with high-quality water every 3 month and every month in the dry months

 Water for Food

Use water for producing agricultural productions such as garlic and dragon fruits

✔Tradeoff

Water resources for

producing energy vs for producing food?

✔Conflict

Energy developers vs Farmers

6

Energy-Food-Land nexus:

Land for Energy? or Land for Food?

 Land for Energy

Land use for generating wind energy

 Land for Food

Land use for livestock pasturing

✔Tradeoff

Land resources for

generating energy vs for producing food

✔Conflict

Energy developer vs Farmers

✔Coexistence

Energy generation vs agricultural activities

Ilocos Norte, the Philippines

7

Groundwater-Food-Environment nexus：

Groundwater for Food?

or Groundwater for Environment?

 Groundwater for Food

Use Groundwater and recycle water treated household

wastewater in San Francisco for agricultural productions

 Groundwater for Environment

・Serious water scarcity because of drought since 2012

・Decrease in groundwater storage and salination caused by over

drought

・Use energy for pumping, wastewater treatment, and allocate recycled water

✔Tradeoff

Groundwater resource for food production vs for environment

Pajaro Valley in CA

Facing Water-centered global environmental problems -Global population

-Water consumption -Groundwater

-Water quality -Water demand

8

9

Change in global population

2100：11.2 b 2050：9.7 b

2015：7.4 b

1.5 times

UN World Population Prospect (2015)

Region Population （Million）

2015 2050 2100

World 7,349 9,725 11,213

Africa 1,186 2,478 4,387

Asia 4,393 5,267 4,889

Europe 738 707 646

Latin America/

Caribbean

634 784 721

North America 358 433 500

Oceania 39 57 71

4 times

1

Change in Global water consumption

Asia 860 63%

North America

281 Europe

93

Africa 56

South America 59 Oceania 10

Asia 2,157 59%

North America

672

Europe 511

Africa 161

South America 152

Oceania 26

Asia 3,104 62%

North America

788

Europe 619

Africa 254

South America

233

Oceania 33

1950

1995

2025

MLIT 2007 Water resources in Japan

-2.6 times in a span of 45 years -Especially Asia!

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

(billion ㎥)

(1,359)

(3,679)

(5,031)

・USGS assessed 40 groundwater aquifers over 1900-2008

timeframe (109 years)

・Estimated GW depletion totals approx. 1,000 km3

・Depletion rate/year -25 km³：2000-2008 -9.2 km³: 1900-2008

11

Cumulative groundwater depletion

Konikow, L.F., 2013, Groundwater depletion in the United States (1900−2008): U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2013−5079, 63 p., http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2013/5079

12

Water quality

Year 2000-2005

Year 2050

Jatiluhur Dam, Purwakarta, Indonesia Hydropower generation

Storage Capacity 3㎦

Water quality risk indices from major river basins

13

Global water demand (Freshwater withdrawals):

The United Nations World Water Development Report 2016 BRIICS：Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, South Africa)

2000 2000 2050 2000 2050 2000 2050

Irrigation 家庭 家畜 工業 電力

OECDOECD BRIICS Rest of world World

Water demand（㎦）

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

Irrigation Domestic

Manufacturing Electricity

2050

Domestic Livestock Manufacturing Electricity

✔Food crises, water crises, and energy price shock were identified as

interconnected global risks（WEF2016)

✔Social and climate change put pressure on water, energy, food resources

✔Demands for water, energy and food are estimated to increase by 40%, 50%, 30% by 2030（USNIC 2012）

✔Increase in number of tradeoffs and potential conflicts among these

resources that have complex interactions

✔Nexus approach can enhance water, energy and food security by

increasing efficiency, reducing trade-offs, building synergies and improving

governance across sectors

14

Global Risks Interconnections Map 2016

(WEF2016)

Food crises

Water crises

Energy price shock

A review of water-energy food nexus research

Background

-

-Nexus has not yet to be officially facilitated, implemented, and acknowledged in a uniform way led by specific United Nations Conventions

-Relationships of all three resources such as water-energy, water-food and/or water-energy-food are interrelated and interdependent, which implies that the complexity of the nexus system has not yet been clarified

-Very few reviews on the nexus studies, as the concept consists of multiple disciplines, as well as interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary research results

Purpose:

To understand the current status of research on the water-energy-food nexus

16

Methodology

Taking a quantitative approach using secondary data included in publically available academic publications in journals and on the web for:

(1)selecting the 37 target nexus projects on the condition

-projects highlighted the interactions of water, energy, and food

-different stakeholders from different sectors were involved in the process of the projects

(2) reviewing the documents of the selected projects historically, including a timeline of nexus activities, nexus concepts, and the position of the nexus project in global environmental

research

(3) identifying

1) the type of nexus (water-food nexus, water-energy nexus, water-energy-food nexus, and climate related nexus)

2) nexus region and type 3) nexus keywords

4) stakeholders

17

Concepts of Nexus

✔Considering complex and interrelated challenges of sustainable

development, NEXUS stresses to promote the cooperation with various sectors and provides the opportunity to open up the disciplinary divides (Allan 2003).

✔There is no fixed concept of NEXUS and the concept could vary depending on short, middle and long term goals at the particular region and sector (Ringler et al. 2013).

✔Though unauthorized, it seems that “Virtual water” deals with production,

“Water Footprint” deals with consumption, “Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM)” deals with entire life cycle of water, and “NEXUS”

deals with lifecycle of water and other related processes including energy and food.

18

Concepts of Nexus

✔Water-Energy-Food Nexus has emerged as a useful concept to describe and

address the complex and interrelated nature of our global resource systems, on which we depend to achieve different social, economic and environmental goals.

It is about balancing different resource user goals and interests – while maintaining the integrity of ecosystems (FAO 2014)

✔Nexus approach can enhance water, energy and food security by increasing efficiency, reducing trade-offs, building synergies and improving governance across sectors (“Understanding NEXUS” by Hoff at SEI, 2011)

✔The nexus is fundamentally about resource recovery, closing the loop and

capturing true efficiency gains instead of simply displacing or masking increased resource use (Lankford 2013; Scott et al. 2014)

19

Historical review of nexus studies and projects

1983 Research UNU launched the Food-Energy Nexus Programme to acknowledge the important interconnectedness between the issues of food and energy

1984 Conference Conferences on “Food, Energy, and Ecosystems”, was held in Brasilia, Brazil by UNU

1986 Conference Second International Symposium on “the Food-Energy Nexus and Ecosystems” was held in New Delhi, India by UNU

Mid-1980s Research Western United States water for electricity concerns

1990s Practice Term “nexus” to link water, food, and trade was used by the World Bank Mid-to-late 1990s

- early 2000s Research India W-E-Agriculture Nexus studied by Columbia Water Center, Earth Institute, Columbia University

2003 Research The electricity for water nexus was applied to Jordan by Scott, C.A

2004 Research The electricity for water nexus was extended to Mexico by Scott, C.A &

Shah

2006 Workshop Hyderabad (India) workshop on groundwater irrigation (electricity nexus) by IWMI, ICRISAT, Wageningen Univ., others

2009 Research WEF nexus in climate adaptation by Lopez-Gunn

2010 Research Resource dependencies by Lazarus ²⁰

2011 Research The Water – Energy – Climate Nexus by Scott, C.A

Conference W-E-F NEXUS was officially announced at 2011 Bonn Nexus Conference organized by German Federal Government

Pratform Water, Energy, and Food Security Nexus Resource Platform was established by German Federal Government

2012 Conference “Green Economy” at Rio+20 (United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development) The Water, Energy and Food Security NEXUS in Practice - Make it happen!

Programme UNU-FLORES Dresden was established for integrated management of environmental resources: water, waste and soil

2013 Documents for

2^nd APWS “The Status of the Water-Food-Energy Nexus in Asia and the Pacific” prepared by UN- ESCAP

Research GIZ-funded FAO-NRC project “The Nexus between Energy, Food, Land Use, and Water:

Application of a Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM)”

Working Paper “An Innovative Accounting Framework for the Food-Energy-Water Nexus: Application of the MuSIASEM approach to three case studies” prepared by FAO

Report “The Water–Energy–Food Security Nexus: Towards a practical planning and decision- support framework for landscape investment and risk management” by IISD

Historical review of nexus studies and practices

21

Historical review of nexus studies and practices

2013 Kick-off

workshop Advancing a Nexus Approach to the Sustainable management of Water, Soil and Waste by UNU-FLORES

2014 Discussion brief “Cross-sectoral integration in the Sustainable Development Goals: a nexus approach”

published by SEI

Conference “NEXUS 2014: Water, Food, Climate and Energy Conference” by Water Institute, UNC Conference The International Conference on the Sustainability of the Water-Energy-Food NEXUS

in Bonn by GWSP

Conference 2014 World Water Week – Energy and Water by SIWI

Platform Future Earth published “Future Earth 2025 Vision” and Nexus is one of 8 challenges 2015 Book “Governing the NEXUS” base on international kick-off workshop by UNU-FLORES in

2013

Conference Water, Soil & Wastes Dresden Nexus Conference 2015 “Global Change, SDGs & the NEXUS Approach” by UNU-FLORES Dresden & others

Book Walking the Nexus Talk: Assessing the Water-Energy-Food Nexus in the context of the Sustainable Energy for All Initiative by FAO

Program Food-energy-water-climate linkages among the topics for its Horizon 2020 research

and innovation programme by EU ²²

Nexus type

Water-food (n=6, 16%)

Water-energy (n=12, 32%)

Water-energy-food (n=11, 30%)

Water-energy-food climate change (n=8, 22%)

Environment:

・examining food import and virtual water nexus

・improving the efficiency of utilization of green water or the rainwater

・preventing depletion of the residual soil moisture

・reducing the use of water through a shift to low water consuming crops

Social & Governance:

・improvement of accurate, fine-scale, site-specific data

・stakeholder engagement Economic:

・microfinance funding model

・pro rata pricing system of electricity Tools: climate prediction model

Environment:

・assessment of biofuel (micro-alges)

・use of abandoned mines for water storage

・use of solar pumps and quench systems for water pumping and billing

・waste water treatment plant including shale gas development from a life cycle perspective

・promoting well-regulated on-site treatment technologies

Economic: multiple market management approaches -tariffs and investments

-further investigation on life cycle of products -evaluating scenario of carbon and water prices Social & Governance:

・promoting - design of extension and training programs - public-private partnership

Tools: website

Tools:・Multi-scale Integrated Analysis of Social and Ecosystem Metabolism

・SWAP model

・Soil Conservation Service Cerrc Number method

・economic calculation (land and water footprints of biofuel)

・cropping system model called CropSyst

・integrated analytical model Environment:

・analyzing the sugar for producing energy as alternative energy

・concentrated solar power and woody biomass for producing electricity

・investigating the land and water requirements for producing bioethanol from maize

・developing trench system to recharge underground aquifers

・reduction in irrigation application can result in decline in energy consumption and carbon emission of groundwater use

Economic, Social & Governance:

・hydropower investment

・power market development

・irrigation reform

・regional public goods awareness building

Social & Governance:

・development strategies with climate benefits and increase the capability of developing countries

・using meteorology and historical data to anchor the relationship of climate change and poverty nexus in Nigeria

・addressing the issues of energy use and GHG emissions to associate with water management

Environment:

・reduce vulnerability to climate change induced disaster and environmental degradation taking a longer term

・analyzing specific data such as 280 aquifers including precipitations and temperature in Mexico

Tools: Normalized Deficit Index (NDI) & Normalized Deficit Cumulated (NDC)²⁴

Nexus regions

Graphical presentation of nexus types in different regions

25

✔North America: water-energy (46%) and climate related (43%)

✔Africa: less focus on water-energy (7%).

✔The other regions: balanced interest in each nexus type

water-food water-energy

water-energy-food climate-related

water-energy Climate-related

Nexus keywords

Keywords

water food energy climate combin

ations others Irrigation

scheduling ✔ ✔ ✔

Water reuse ✔ ✔ ✔

Water

transportation ✔ ✔ ✔

Waste water

management ✔ ✔ ✔

Sea water

desalination ✔ ✔ ✔

⁞ ⁞ ⁞ ⁞ ⁞ ⁞ ⁞

84 in total 40 14 29 4 24 22

• Selected 84 keywords (e.g. irrigation, etc.) from 37 nexus projects

• Categorized into water, food, energy, climate, combination, and others by author team

• Most of the keywords have more than double categories.

• 40 out of 84 keywords were linked with water followed by energy

Source: I.Tsurita, A. Endo

40

14

29

4

24 22

0 10 20 30 40 50

26

Parties of nexus activities

Stakeholders

• Selected 137 organizations from 37 nexus projects

• Categorized stakeholders under the framework of the FE

• Some organizations play multiple roles

• Research is largest followed by governments

① ② ③ ④ ⑤ ⑥ ⑦ ⑧

World Bank ✔ ✔ ✔

Pepsi ✔

Japan

International Cooperation Agency (JICA)

✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

World Vision ✔ ✔ ✔

⁞ ⁞ ⁞ ⁞ ⁞ ⁞ ⁞ ⁞ ⁞

137 in total 77 46 41 47 42 16 20 2

① ③

④

⑤

⑥ ⑦

⑧

Source: I.Tsurita, A. Endo

77

46 41 47 42

16 20

2 0

20 40 60 80 100

27

Parties of nexus activities

Region Institution Region Institution Region Institution

UN Agency

(n=16) UN General

Assembly WBUNDP UNEPFAO UNIDO

UN-HABITAT UNESCO-IHP UNUWWAP

UN-Water UN-ESCAP WMOGEF IPCCUNCCD

International groups, institutes, and NGOs (n=28)

WRIWPP GWPIAH IWAIFPRI AVRDC IAEEIRENA IGBPWFEO OECD WBCSD WEFIFC WWFIUCN

IISDChristian Aid World Vision ICLEI

Ellen MacArthur Foundation

National

governments, agencies, institutes and universities in Europe

(n=19)

Government of Germany BMZ, Germany

GIZ, Germany

University of Lüneberg, Germany PIK, Germany

Natural Environment Research Council, The Royal Society, UK Imperial College London, UK SEISRI

SIWIMinistry of Foreign Affairs, Norway

University of Life Sciences, Norway

Erasmus University of Rotterdam, Netherlands

Ministry of the Environment, Estonia

ECEU EIB Private Company

(n=7) McKinsey & Co.

Philips Shell Nestlé

The Guardian ²⁸

Parties of nexus activities

Region Institution Region Institution

North America (n=28)

USAID

U.S. Department of Agriculture

U.S. Government Accountability Office U.S. Department of Energy

National Hydropower Association, USA Great Lakes Commission, USA

Illinois Institute of Technology Argonne National Laboratory

AAASColumbia Water Center, Columbia University, USA

School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina, USA

University of British Columbia, Ca Canadian Hydropower Association

Asia(n=

28), &

Oceania (n=7),

Government of Nepal Government of China Government of Korea

Ministry of Water Resources, Government of India Royal Thai Government

Office of the National Water and Flood Management Policy, Thailand

JICACommittee of Geology and Subsoil Use, Kazakhstan TEI Universiti Teknologi, Malaysia

UniSA

University of Engineering and Technology Lahore University of Tokyo, Japan

SEACUS

TERINetwork of Asian River Basin Organizations MRCICIMOD

CDIAADB Latin

America Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation, Brazil Under-Secretariat of Territorial Development and Decentralisation, El Salvador

Africa

(n=4) Nairobi City Water and Sewerage Company, Kenya Water Research Commission (WRC), South Africa ACMAD

AU ₂₉

Summary of reviewing the water-energy food nexus research

✔Diverse projects have been implemented by numerous stakeholders around the world and the projects were conducted based on a different actor’s interest

✔Four identified types of nexus were all related to water

✔The number of W-E nexus projects was highest among the 4 types

✔North America had a tendency to focus on water–energy and climate related

✔Many of the selected keywords were linked with water, mostly focusing on fresh water including river water, rain water, reservoir, groundwater, and seawater mainly related to terrestrial activities for agriculture productions, and wastewater treatment

✔Nexus activities are currently shared among different stakeholders led by researchers and governments

30

Challenges of water-energy food nexus research

✔Developing methods such as integrated indices, models and economic assessment methods to integrate interdisciplinary, multi-sectors, and multi-dimensional research results is essential to analyze and understand the complexity of WEFN system

✔need for more publicity (only two were from media) to make sure that the nexus projects are facilitated by private sectors on the ground under the co-design and co- production concept of the Future Earth framework.

✔Ways to connect local nexus issues within a community to broader national and global nexus issues and themes (the vertical dimension) were often missing from site- specific case studies

✔Important to understand how an event related to water–energy–food resources in one case study area would affect other case study areas (the horizontal dimension).

✔ Consider how current events are likely to impact future water–energy–food resources on a temporal scale

31

Introduction of RIHN nexus project

A

B

C

D E

Human Well-being Global Sustainability

(The Environment, Society, The Economy)

C. Water for food -Agricultural irrigation -Rainwater harvesting -Water footprint

-Ecosystem

E. Energy for food -Food production -Food transport

-Groundwater pumping D. Food for water

-Biofuel B. Water for energy -Hydroelectric power -Geothermal power -Fracking

A. Energy for water -Transporting water -Pumping water -Heating water

Human Environmental Security (Risk, Resilience)

Water

-Groundwater -Spring water -Surface water

Energy

-Micro-hydro -Geothermal/

Hot spring -Shale gas

-Fishery prod.Food

-Aquaculture prod.

-Agricultural prod.

RIHN Nexus Purpose

Understand the complexity of WEF nexus system and to create policy options to reduce tradeoffs among resources and to solve the conflicts of resource users under scientific evidence and uncertainty

33

Submarine Groundwater Discharge (SGD) 34₃₄

Water-Energy-Food nexus:

Water for land? or Water for coasts?

 Water for Land

Water use for producing and consuming food and energy on land

 Water for coasts

The flow of nutrients from the land to the ocean affects the coastal ecosystem

✔Tradeoffs

-Water for land vs water for coasts

-Water use for producing and consuming food and energy on land might affect fishery production in coastal areas

3535

National society Regional society

Global society

Site-specific local society

W-E nexus

group (G2) W-F nexus group (G3) Interdisciplinary

group (G5)

Site-specific stakeholder analysis group (G4) Science

in/for society group (G1)

Spatial scale

Target areas

-Japan (Obama, Otsuchi, Beppu & others)

US, Canada, Indonesia, the Philippines -60 researchers in different dsciplines

35

5 countries

Developing stage Policy planning stage

We are here!

Temporal scale

Water-Energy nexus: G2

A.1 Analyse effective potential energy production using water

A.2 Examine the changes in river ecosystems caused by the changes in heat environment A.3 Diversify renewable energy sources

A.4 Examine the interlinkages between groundwater and fishery production Water-Food nexus: G3

Stakeholder analysis: G4 Science in/for society: G1 B.1 Identify WEF nexus SHs and their interests at

SH meeting/individual interview

B.2 Clarify differences in public attitudes toward energy production

B.3 Study cultural significance of wells/springs in local communities/households

B.4 Develop integrated methods for ID & TD Interdisciplinary: G5

Identify tradeoffs &

conflicts

Scientific

uncertainty Scientific evidence

A. Understand the

complexity of WEF nexus system

B. Create policy options &

scenarios to solve the identified nexus problems

Initial stage

36

Introduction of RIHN nexus project

-Methods of the water-energy-food nexus

37

38

The structure of RIHN WEFN project _G1:

Jurisprudence/Anthropology/International relations /Sociology/Geography

G2:Hydrology/Hydrogeology/Hydrometeorology/Geol ogy/Geomorphology/Hot spring studies/

Geothermic/Limnology G3:Biology/Environmental

science/Bioecology/Fisheries sciences

G4:Public administration/Environmnetal policy studies/Social engineering

G5:Fisheries economics/Ocean policy

studies/Environmental economics/Computer science

National society Regional society

Global society

Site-specific local society

W-E nexus

group (G2) W-F nexus group (G3) Interdisciplinary

group (G5)

Site-specific stakeholder analysis group (G4) Science

in/for society group (G1)

38

Interdisciplinary team with missions:

1. To identify research problems with local experts

2. To determine the methods and/or create new “discipline-free methods”

-synthesizing and harmonizing team-based production, collected from individual scientists in different disciplines from each tem in order to assess human environmental security

-developing these approaches to incorporate non-scientific/-disciplinary views on the analysis

Otsuchi Obama Beppu Laguna de Bay

W E F W E F W E F W E F

for W － － P － － － － －

for E H － Gr － H/G/Gr － H －

for F F － F P F － F/A －

H: micro-hydropower F: fishery production P: pumping

G: geothermal energy Gr: ground heat

exchanger system

A: agriculture production

Goup5 is developing methods following nexus in project each site

Source: Endo, Burnette, Orencio, Kumazawa, Wada, Ishii, Tsurita, Taniguchi 2015 ³⁹

Water-energy-food methodology and taxonomy

Type of Data Functions

Methods

Interdisciplinary research approaches Trans-

disciplinary research approaches Primary Secondary Unification Visualization Evaluation Simulation

Qualitative methods

✔ ✔ Questionnaire Surveys ✔ ✔ ✔ — ✔

— — Ontology Engineering ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

✔ ✔ Integrated Maps ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

Quantitative methods

✔ — Physical Models ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

✔ ✔ Benefit-Cost Analysis ✔ ✔ ✔ － ✔

✔ ✔ Integrated Indices ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

✔ ✔ Optimization

Management Models ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

Source: Endo, A., Orencio, P., Kumazawa, T. and Burnett, K. 2015 ₄₀

Qualitative Method: Questionnaire Surveys for index

Source: Orencio, P.

Questionnaire Surveys for integrated index

Objectives -To understand the prevailing issues between water and food resource systems, particularly fishery

-To generate local information that can be used for developing indicators -To present the relationship between water and food using local indicators -To provide suggestions for optimally managing the resource systems

Dates March 2015 Target

sites 460 households in 9 barangays in Calamba (258) and 4 barangays in Los Banos (202), the Philippines

Design -Availability, access, utilization and management of water and food in Los Banos and Calamba

-Four sections:

1) demographic characteristics

2) household access to and utilization of food and water resources 3) socio-economic activities of each household

4) risk management

42

Qualitative Method: Ontology Engineering

Ontology Engineering Approach

Definition

“explicit specification of conceptualization in the artificial knowledge field” (Gruber 1993)

What is ontology engineering?

-key method for information technology

-consists of concepts and relationships that are needed to describe the target world

How to approach ?

-identify the terms of water, energy, food

-identify the linkages among the term of water, energy and food

Developing ontology (Kumazawa (2014))

44

Ontology Engineering Approach

Kumazawa (2014)

Causal chain map of WEFN

Specific purpose for nexus

-designing the project to build a list of common concepts of term; the linkages of each term among

stakeholders included researchers and practitioners

-assess whether the policy/plan would cover all disciplines and sectors

-to collaborate with different schools of thoughts for interdisciplinary approach

45

Qualitative Method: Integrated Maps

Submarine Groundwater Discharge (SGDs)

-Environmental flow with nutrient from land to the ocean might affect coastal ecosystem

⇒Water use for producing and consuming food and energy on land might affect fishery

production in coastal zones -challenges to quantify SGDs

⇒²²²Rn is one of the potential indicators to identify SGDs

-SGD has not been managed to date, because it occurs along the policy

border between terrestrial and coastal areas

Sugimoto R. , Honda H., et al., 2014

Integrated Maps

Distribution of ²²²Rn

concentration level on the eastern side of Beppu Bay

47

✔managed by different bodies with different targets

Actual conditions of utilization in the coastal areas of Beppu Bay

Commercial port

Coastal conservation area

common fishery rights area Demarcated fishery area

Licensed fishery areas Fishing port

✔Nobody manages whole bay!

Integrated Maps ⁴⁸

Quantitative Method: Integrated Physical Models

Integrated Physical Models

✔integrated modelling of water, dissolved material and heat flows in the

hydrological system

✔illustrate the heat exchange between

groundwater and heat temperature of

geothermal energy, shallow and deep-in- the-ground

Source: Ishii

GETFLOWS

Heat Water & dissolved material

Geothermal

50

Quantitative Method: Cost-Benefit Analysis

Cost-Benefit Analysis of a disaster adaptation strategy, Otsuchi

 Cost-Benefit Analysis

-to appraise a scheme’s economic merit

-to compare the net benefits of competing projects

 Disaster prevention

-building 14-meter seawall along the coast

-ground level will be raised by 2m to avoid being submerged

 Benefit of the dike

to prevent future damages from another Tohoku-like event in the future

 Cost of the dike

-construction expenditures in building dike -annual operation & maintenance costs

-ecological losses: loss of mudflat habitat

52

Cost-Benefit Analysis of a Dike following Natural Disaster, Otsuchi

Source Description Damage (USD)

USGS (2011) Estimated losses due to structural damage

only 10-100 billion

Daniell et al (2011) Includes indirect losses (43% of the total)

such as interruption to businesses 595 billion

Allman (2012) Total economic losses 210 billion

Kazama and Noda

(2012) Damage to buildings, lifeline facilities, social infrastructure facilities, agriculture, forestry, and fisheries production

80-209 billion

Estimated damages for 2011 Tohoku event (all of Japan)

 Results

determine the damage reduction that can be attributed to the construction of the dike

-net present value of the planned seawall in Otsuchi may be positive when the wall is relatively effective at reducing damage

-consider ecological loss such as ecosystem changes from the dike’s interference with hydrology as cost side.

-anecdotal evidence suggests that the costs could potentially be reduced while

maintaining a similar level of benefits by using pine trees as a natural seawall.

February 2016 in Otsuchi

53

Source: Burnett, K. 2016

Quantitative Method: Optimization Management Models

Optimization Management Models

Groundwater Optimization in Obama

Costs of Groundwater for Domestic/Commercial Use

• Quantity pumped: q_D

• Marginal pumping cost: c_w(h)

Groundwater Resource

• Aquifer retention ability

• Annual groundwater recharge: R

• Annual SGD: SGD(h)

Costs of Groundwater Used for Snow-Melting

• Quantity pumped: q_S

• Marginal pumping cost: c_w(h)

SGD(h) Benefits of Groundwater Used for

Drinking (B_D)

• Quantity consumed

• Domestic/commercial WTP

• Projected demand growth

Benefits of Groundwater Used for Snow-Melting (B_S)

• Quantity used

• Costs of alternative methods (e.g.

plowing, heating) Fishery Resource

• Current fish stock: X₀

• Fish growth function: G(X,SGD(h))

Costs of Fishing

• Fish harvest: q_X(E,X)

o Effort (per week/month/year): E

• Marginal effort cost: c_E

• Number of fishermen

Benefits of Fishing (B_S)

• Revenue from commercial fishing o Quantity of fish harvested o Market price of fish: p_X

• Avoided replacement cost for subsistence fishing

 Optimization management model -address the GW allocation problem

in Obama City

-study the linkages between GW pumping and the resulting

dynamics of the aquifer

- optimize by choosing the benefit- maximizing levels of GW pumping for domestic and snow-melting uses

GW is used for melting snow in land during winter

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Optimization Management Models _ Optimization management model Tradeoff in groundwater resources between land activities vs fisheries productions

GW is used for melting snow in land during winter

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Flow of nutrients from land to ocean might affect fisheries productions

Source: Burnett, K. 2015

Groundwater use spikes during winter months because more is used for melting snow

Discussion：Critically review the methods

Pros and cons for nexus study: Qualitative methods for ID and TD

Methods Pros Cons

Questionnaire survey

-incorporating the local people’s general outlook

-collecting information to analyze WEF interlinkages when few data exist

-to identify the key issues

-site-specific

-limited spatial &

temporal applications Ontology -designing the project to build a list of common

conceptual terms; the linkages of each term among stakeholders included researchers and practitioners -assess whether the policy/plan would cover all

disciplines including natural sciences, social

sciences and the humanities, and sectors such as WEF

Integrated map clarify the dimensions where conflicts of interest emerge among stakeholders at a spatial scale among

stakeholders ⁵⁸

Pros and cons of for nexus study: Quantitative methods for ID and TD

Methods Pros Cons

CBA -clarifying trade-offs

-creating and providing policy options -site-specific

-limited spatial & temporal applications

Physical model to understand WEF nexus systems; if it were developed to clarify

interlinkages between physical conditions of WEF

the results of integrated model

simulation without social and local knowledge may lead people to

misconstrue the model’s results if the numbers from simulations are

unrealistic for political, economic and other reasons

Integrated index -allowing the data to be nomalized for direct comparison with other results at different project locations -discipline-free-method

-site-specific

-limited spatial & temporal applications

Optimization

management model -clarifying trade-offs

-creating and providing policy options ⁵⁹

Critical reviews of our methods using ontological engineering

How the Target

World Exists How to Recognize the

Target Dimension/

Unit System Individual

Method Integrated Method

Target system

√ Perspective-oriented

√ What to be understood

√ Format-oriented

Spatial Map Integrated Maps

Physical Physical Models Integrated Physical Models

Monetary Cost Analysis Benefit-Cost Analysis Benefit Analysis Economic Optimization Models Non-unified

unit Indicator Integrated indices

√ State-oriented

√ What to understand

√ Content-oriented

Context- dependent

Specific Comprehensive Questionnaire

surveys Interviewing

Table. We re-categorized each method from the ontology engineering perspective.

-each method covered one or more of those dimensions (e.g., spatial, physical, monetary) -created site-specific integrated methods Source: Endo, Burnette, Orencio, Kumazawa, Wada, Ishii, Tsurita, Taniguchi 2015 ⁶⁰

Challenges for Spatial (horizon & vertical) scale and Temporal scale

Local Global

Inter-scale

Vertical spatial scale:

use global data such as a global model to set our site-specific case studies within a global context (Guillaume 2015)

Present Future

Temporal scale:

creation of future scenarios further integrating each integrated method to analyze WEF nexus (Keskinen 2015)

Local

Inter-area

Horizontal spatial scale:

how an incident related to WEF resources and resource users in one case study area could affect other case study areas

Source: Endo, Burnette, Orencio, Kumazawa, Wada, Ishii, Tsurita, Taniguchi 2015

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B. Create policy options & scenarios to solve the identified nexus problems Interdisciplinary

B.4 Develop integrated methods for ID & TD

Initial stage

Developing stage

Policy planning stage

Questionnaire survey: collecting information to analyze WEF interlinkages when few data exist; then, it would help to identify the key issues

Ontology engineering: designing the project to build a list of common concepts of term;

the linkages of each term among stakeholders included researchers and practitioners BCA & Optimization management model: clarifying trade-offs

Physical model: understanding the complexity of water-energy food nexus system

BCA & Optimization management model: creating and providing policy options Physical model: creating and providing policy options working with social scientists

Integrated map: provide an opportunity to share knowledge showing actual conditions at a spatial scale among stakeholders

Integrated index: incorporate and integrate each result with different disciplines, then evaluate trade-offs to maximize human environmental security

Ontology engineering: assess whether the policy/plan would cover all disciplines and sectors

S c e n a r i o s

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Summary

Thank you very much.

The 3^rd WEF nexus meeting in Kyoto (October 2015) ₆₄