1 在说不定的某个时候，我们大家都曾充当过疑病症患者的角色，只凭一些轻微的症状便怀疑自己得 了某种可怕的疾病。有的人只要一听说一种新的疾病就会去对照自己，看自己是否可能患了这种病。然而，
对疾病的恐惧并非我们唯一的恐惧。同样，患病的危险也并非我们唯一会遇上的危险。现代生活中充满了 各种各样的威胁，诸如对我们生命的威胁、对我们平和心境的威胁、对我们家人的威胁，以及对我们未来 的威胁。这些使我们不得不问自己：我买的食品安全吗？给孩子们的玩具会伤害他们吗？我的家人是不是 不该吃熏肉？我度假时会不会遭抢劫？我们的疑虑会无休止地增加。
2 对生活中危险的担忧与疑病症有点儿相似：两者引起的恐惧或忧虑皆起因于信息不全面。但两者之间也 存在一个明显的差别。疑病症患者通常可以求助于医生，以便澄清疑虑——要么你得了你所怀疑的疾病，要 么你没得。但当涉及其他形式的危险时，事情就要困难得多，因为对许多危险来说，情况并不那么简单。
3 危险几乎总是一个可能性的问题而无确定性可言。你也许会问：“我该不该系安全带？”如果你坐的 车会与其他车正面相撞，那当然该系安全带。但如果你的车侧面被撞，你被困在车里，又因安全带装置遭 破坏而无法挣脱，那怎么办呢？这是否意味着你该再花些钱在车内安装一个安全气囊呢？同样，在正面相 撞的情况下，安全气囊可能能救你的命。但是，万一正当你在高速公路上开车时，安全气囊突然意外充气 膨胀，从而导致了本来绝不会发生的事故，那又该如何是好？
4 上面说的这一切，只是从另一个角度说明我们所做的事情没有一件是百分之百安全的。我们的每项业 余爱好、所做的每项工作、所吃的每种食物，换句话说，我们所进行的任何活动，都具有危险性，而且往 往具有潜在的严重危险性。但我们又不能、也不该因为危险存在于我们将要做的每件事而把自己变成战战 兢兢的神经症患者。有些活动比其他活动更危险。关键在于要让自己了解相关的风险，然后相机行事。
5 例如，两车相撞时，大车总的说来要比小车安全些。可究竟能安全多少呢？答案是：在一起严重的车 祸中，坐小车丧生的可能性是坐大车的两倍左右。然而，大车通常比小车贵（并且消耗更多的汽油，由此 给环境带来更大的威胁！）。那么我们该如何确定什么时候值得为降低风险而增加花费呢？例如，避免危险 最保险的做法也许是买一辆坦克或者装甲车，从而把撞车时死亡或受伤的危险降到最低。然而，即使你买 得起，让你承担这笔额外的费用并忍受坦克或装甲车所带来的不便是否值得呢？
6 在我们尚不明确所涉及的危险程度之前，我们还无法回答这些问题。那么，我们该如何去衡量危险程 度呢？有些人似乎认为答案只不过是一个简单的数字。例如，我们知道每年大约2.5万人死于车祸。相比之 下，每年只有大约300人死于矿山事故和灾难。这是否就意味着乘坐汽车要比采矿危险得多呢？未必。事
87 Risks 实是，在美国每年大约有两亿人经常性地开车，而大概只有70万人从事采矿作业。我们评估一种危险时，
所需要的相关数字是一个比率或分数。该分数的分子告诉我们在某个特定时期由于从事某种特定活动而丧 生或受伤的人数，其分母告诉我们在这一时期从事这种活动的总人数。这样所有的危险程度都可以用比率 或分数表示，其大小介于0（无危险）到1（绝对危险）之间。
7 通过把所有风险都简化为这种比率或分数，我们便可以比较不同种类的风险，如比较采矿与乘坐汽车 的相对风险。这个比率越大，也就是说它的数值越接近1，那么相关活动的危险性就越大。就刚才讨论的例 子来说，我们可以将乘坐汽车和采矿作业时死亡的人数除以参与该活动的总人数，从而得出两者的相对安 全性。由此，我们可以很清楚地看到，乘坐汽车旅行的危险性是每一万人中大约有一人丧生；而就采矿而 言，其危险程度是每一万名矿工中大约有四人死亡。所以，尽管在车祸中丧生的人数远比采矿要多，但其 实后者的危险性却是前者的四倍。这些比率使我们能够对完全不同的活动或情形的危险性加以比较，即使 差别如苹果与橘子那样大也能比较。如果你反对冒险，那么你可以选择危险性比较小的活动。如果你无所 畏惧，那么你可能不在乎高比率的危险，除非风险比率大得令人难以承受。
8 我们一旦明白了没有任何情况可以完全规避风险，因此没有绝对安全的事，我们也就会明白问题的关 键不是要彻底避免风险，而是要理智地管理风险。风险管理需要两大要素：常识，以及关于我们可能要承 担的风险的特征及其危险程度的信息。
Exercises
Post-Reading
Reading Comprehension
1 STEP ONE
1 Risks are always a matter of probability rather than certainty.
2 The writer supports the main idea by means of a comparison between hypochondria and anxiety about the risks of life, and an analysis of injury prevention.
STEP TWO
We should inform ourselves about the relevant risks before making any decision. (Para. 4)
Mining is four times riskier than riding in a car. (Para. 7)
Example 2
Which activity is riskier, riding in a car or mining? (Para. 6)
Problem
How do we measure the level of a risk? (Para. 6)
Solution
Risk levels can be expressed in ratios or fractions.
(Paras. 6-7)
Example 1
We need to know the relative safety of larger cars and small cars before our purchase.
(Para. 5)
88 Unit 6 2
Similarity Difference
Hypochondria
In both cases, the fear or anxiety feeds on partial information.
The hypochondriac can turn to a physician to get a definitive clarification of the situation.
Anxiety about the
risks of life Risks are a matter of probability rather than certainty.
3
Total Number of Deaths People Involved in the Activity The Risk Level Traveling by car 25,000 200 million 1/10,000 Coal mining 300 700,000 4/10,000 4 Sample
1 Obviously airplanes are much safer than cars according to the pie chart. However, psychologically, people don’t feel that way.
2 • Perhaps because airplane crashes are almost always fatal. Few people survive an airplane crash, while people might not be killed in a car accident. Even though there are fewer plane crash victims than car accident deaths, people feel far less secure in the air than on the ground. We are still more used to cars than airplanes.
• To many people, it seems their safety is out of their own hands when they are in the air.
Airplane passengers can do little by themselves and they even have no way to escape when a crash happens. In a vehicle on the ground, drivers or car passengers at least have something to hold onto, such as safety belts. If the driver is careful or skillful enough he can in most cases avoid a serious accident. And there are fewer car accident deaths than injuries. I think that’s why people are afraid of airplane accidents more than car accidents.
Vocabulary
1 1 sensible
sensible:havingorshowinggoodsense;reasonable
sensitive: easily hurt, upset, or offended by things that people say 2 relative
relevant: connected with the subject or problem being discussed or considered
relative:consideredinrelationorproportiontosb.orsth.else;comparative 3 mechanism
machine: a piece of equipment with moving parts that uses power such as electricity to do a particular job
mechanism: a structure of working parts functioning together to produce an effect 4 requires
require: need sth.
request: ask for sth. politely or formally
89 Risks 5 eliminate
reduce: make sth. smaller in size, number, degree, price, etc.
eliminate: completely get rid of sth. that is unnecessary or unwanted 6 crash
crash: a very bad accident involving cars, airplanes, etc. that have hit sth.
collision: an accident in which two or more people or vehicles hit each other while moving in different directions
7 accordingly
accordingly: in a way that is appropriate to the situation
consequently:asaresult;therefore 8 exposure
exposure: the state of being put into a situation in which sth. harmful or dangerous may occur disclosure: the act or process of revealing or uncovering sth.
9 ratio
ratio: relationship between two things expressed by two numbers or amounts percentage: an amount expressed as if it is part of a whole which is 100 10 partial
partial: not complete
fractional: very small in amount
2 1 character 2 end up 3 likely 4 Rarely 5 casual 6 risky 7 all manner of 8 inform 9 sensible 10 definitively Translation
1 He was finally offered the job on the strength of his good memory and the many exams he had passed.
2 She favors a bit of adventure as well as a certain degree of self-government when her children’s education is concerned.
3 Most people who are sick with AIDS want to stay at home, rather than spend time unnecessarily in hospital.
4 What if I choose to give small amounts of money regularly over a period of time instead of donating a large sum once for all?
5 I am afraid, Mr. Peterson, the answer is that we have to be more efficient than our European competitors.
6 The museum does not intend to focus on a particular aspect of modern art, but prefers to offer material for the public to study and compare.
7 She has decided not to go for a drive on such a windy day even supposing a car was available.
8 I am well aware of the fact that you have cut yourself off from your past and have started a totally new life.
90 Unit 6