第五章 結論與建議
5.2 建議
1. 本文在計算坡度上假設 DEM 誤差之空間變異性具有指數型態之共 變異函數，而依據現地狀況之不同應考慮假設之合適性，未來可進一步探 討共變異函數為其他型態時之影響。
2.進行變異數敏感度分析方法在未來嘗試採用可獨立分析各參數敏感 度係數之方法。
3. 未來可以實際現地之案例，分析崩塌參度與崩塌時間之敏感度分析，
以評估降雨條件對坡地淺崩塌之影響。
33
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表 4.1 艾利颱風期間時雨量表
日期(日/月) 時刻(hour) 時雨量(mm) 日期(月/日) 時刻(hour) 時雨量(mm)
8/23 12 4.5 8/24 12 14.5
8/23 13 2 8/24 13 23.5
8/23 14 1.5 8/24 14 17.5
8/23 15 1.5 8/24 15 18.5
8/23 16 1 8/24 16 12.5
8/23 17 8.5 8/24 17 28
8/23 18 12 8/24 18 42
8/23 19 21.5 8/24 19 28
8/23 20 9.5 8/24 20 46
8/23 21 4.5 8/24 21 66
8/23 22 13 8/24 22 44
8/23 23 17.5 8/24 23 57
8/23 0 30 8/24 0 71.5
8/24 1 25.5 8/25 1 60.5
8/24 2 15 8/25 2 57.5
8/24 3 16.5 8/25 3 53
8/24 4 6.5 8/25 4 59.5
8/24 5 14.5 8/25 5 50
8/24 6 42 8/25 6 40.5
8/24 7 37 8/25 7 30
8/24 8 14.5 8/25 8 12
8/24 9 14.5 8/25 9 7
8/24 10 27.5 8/25 10 4.5
8/24 11 23.5 8/25 11 2
43
表 4.2 模式參數統計特性整理表
模式參數 平均值 標準差 機率密度函數
初始地下水位(𝑑𝑍) 2.5 m 0.725 均勻分布
土壤比重(𝐺𝑠) 2.665 0.18665 常態分佈
有效摩擦角(ϕ) 30.9° 1.125 常態分佈
有效凝聚力(C) 2.25
kN m /
2 9.27 常態分佈 殘餘體積含水量(𝜃𝑟) 0.065 0.017 Johnson family SB飽和水力傳導係數(𝐾𝑠) 4.42
cm hr /
5.63 Johnson family SB進氣潛能因子(ξ) 0.012 0.037 Johnson family SB
孔徑指數(N) 1.89 0.17 Johnson family LN 飽和體積含水量(𝜃𝑠) 0.41 0.09
水單位重γ𝑤 9810
N m /
340 m DEM 誤差 0 4.152
5 m DEM 誤差 0 2.126
44
表 4.3 保水曲線參數之共變異係數矩陣
[
2.5600 − 0.2488 0.0592 0.3376
−0.2488 0.3129 0.0035 − 0.1367 0.0592 0.0035 0.0019 0.0048 0.3376 − 0.1367 0.0048 0.0826 ]
圖 4.4 坡度與土壤厚度設定
案例 一 二 三 四 五 六
平均坡度 20 度 30 度 40 度 20 度 30 度 40 度
DEM 解析度 40 m DEM 5 m DEM
45
圖 1.1 研究步驟
46
圖 2.1 坡地座標系統與模擬邊界條件示意圖
47
圖 3.1 偏相關係數示意圖
圖 3.2 部分相關係數示意圖
48
圖 4.1 砂崙仔工程地區位置(楊錦釧等,2006)
圖 4.2 艾利颱風期間三光站時雨量組體圖
49
圖 4.3 坡度與崩塌深度現場量測資料
圖 4.4 誤差項常態測試圖
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
圖 4.41 案例六土層第三層，安全係數部分相關係數
-0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
0 20 40 60 80 100
部分相關係數
時間(h)
殘餘含水量 水力傳導係數 進氣潛能因子 孔徑指數 土層厚度 坡度 摩擦角 凝聚力 土壤比重 初始地下水位