第五章 結論與建議
5.2 建議
1. 臨前水文資料長度 N，N 考慮得愈大，應用率定結果來推算率定組的幾場颱 洪事件，其水位當然就愈準確。但使用在檢定組上，結果就不一定好。N 的 決定長度，應有一套方法，並不是愈多愈好。
2. 現階段第十河川局網站上的雨量資料庫是屬於每小時一筆的資料格式，未來 期望也能提供每10 分鐘一筆的雨量站與水位站資料，本模式為保留程式之擴 充性，也可以輸入每10 分鐘一筆的資料，對於未來預報水位也許將可更加準 確。
3. 本模式雖可準確地將降雨量、員山子水位變化反應到河川水位變化，但以 上 所進行之水位推算，均是以實測雨量為輸入條件，僅能證明本模式可以準 確 地由降雨量推算即將發生之水位變化。但實際應用在預報時，根本不知道 往 後幾個小時要下多少雨量，萬一雨量預報失真，本模式所提供給全流域洪 水 位演算模式的上游邊界值，其準確性就有待評估，若將來能有更準確之降 雨 預報模式，則能夠延長本模式之預報長度，使得本系統之預報能力更為強大。
4. 由於員山子攔河堰前後河道寬度並不一致，且在堰後有消能作用之構造物，
皆有 可能是導致計算分洪流量誤差來 源，將來若把河道寬度與消能問題納入 考慮，結果也許會更加準確。
5. 對於寬頂堰公式之修正，建議可以先運用模型進行實驗，以達到對分洪流量 更準確之推估。
參考文獻
1. Arts, E. H. L., F. M. J. De Bont, E. H. A. Habers and P. J. M. Van Laarhoven, (1985). “Statistical cooling: a general approach to combinatorial optimizations,”
Philips Journal of Research, Vol. 4, pp. 193-226.
2. Colorni A., M. Dorigo and V. Maniezzo, (1992). “An Investigation of Some
Properties of an Ant Algorithm,” Proceedings of the Parallel Problem Solving from Nature Conference (PPSN 92), Brussels, Belgium, R.Manner and B.Manderick (Eds.), Elsevier Publishing, pp. 509-520.
3. Dougherty, D. E., and Marryott, R. A., (1991). “Optimal groundwater management 1. Simulated Annealing,” Water Resources Research, Vol. 27, No. 10,
pp. 2493-2508.
4. Glover, F., (1986). “Future path for integer programming and links to artificial intelligence,” Computers and Operation Research, Vol. 13, pp. 533-549.
5. Henderson. F. M., and Wooding, R. A., (1964). “Overland flow and groundwater flow from a steady rainfall of finite duration,” Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 69, No.8, pp.1531-1540.
6. Holland, J.H., (1975). “Adaptation in Natural and Artificial System,” Ann Arbor:
The University of Michigan Press.
7. Huang, M.D., F. Romeo, and Sangiovanni-Vincentelli, A., (1986). “An efficient general cooling schedule for simulated annealing,” IEEE Trans. Comput. Aided Desigh, CAD Vol. 5, No. 1, pp. 381-384.
8. Kirkpatrick, S., (1984). “Optimization by Simulated Annealing: Quantitative Studies,” Journal of Statistical Physics, Vol. 34, pp. 975-986.
9. Kirkpatrick, S., C. D. Gelatt, and M. P. Vecchi, (1983). “Optimization by simulated annealing,” Science Vol. 220, pp. 671-680.
10. Konda Thirumalaiah and Makarand C. Deo, (2000). “Hydrological Forecasting Using Neural Networks”, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering Vol.5, No.2, pp.180-189.
11. Lai, C., (1986). “Numerical modeling of unsteady open-channel flow.” in
Advances in Hydroscience; eds., V.T. Chow and B.C. Yen, Vol.14, Academic Press, Orlando, FL, pp.161-133. (Book Chapter).
12. Lai, C., (1999). “Simulation of unsteady flows in a river system.” (Operational Manual), Hydrotech Research Institute, Nat’l Taiwan Univ., Sponsored by Water Resources Bureau, Ministry of Economic Affairs. –- with attachment: “Quick Reference Guide (快速查照小冊)” (available in English or Chinese).
13. Lin G.F., and Chen L.H., (2005). “Application of Artificial Neural Network to Typhoon Rainfall Forecasting,” Hydrological Processes Vol. 19, No. 9, pp.
1825-1837.
14. Mayer, D. G., Belward, J. A. and Burrage, K., (1998). “Tabu Search Not an Optimal Choice for Models of Agricultural Systems,” Agricultural Systems, Vol.
58, No. 2, pp. 243-251.
15. Metropolis, N., Rosebluth, A. W., Teller, M.N. and Teller, E., (1953). “Equation of State Calculations By Fast Computing Machines,” Journal of Chemical Physics, Vol. 21, No. 6, pp. 1087-1092.
16. Nash, J. E., (1957). “The form of the instantaneous unit hydrograph,” Intl. Assoc.
Sci. Hydrology, Pub. 45, Vol. 3, pp.114-121.
17. Sherman, L. K., (1932). “Streamflow from rainfall by the unit-graph method,” Eng.
New-Rec., Vol.108, pp. 501-505.
18. Sugawara, M., Watanabe, I., Ozaki, E. and Katsuyama, Y., (1984). “Tank model with snow component,” Research Notes, No. 65, National Research Center for Disaster Prevention, Japan.
19. Wooding, R. A., (1965). “A hydraulic model for the catchment-stream problem, I.
Kinematic-wave theory,” Journal of Hydrology, Vol.3, No.3, pp.254-267.
20. Zhu, M.L. and Fujita, M., (1994). “Comparisons Between Fuzzy Reasoning And Neural Network Methods To Forecast Runoff Discharge,” Journal of Hydroscience and Hydraulic Engineering Vol. 12, No.2, pp.131-141.
21. 王如意、易任，1992，「應用水文學」，茂昌圖書公司。
29. 經濟部水利署，2008，「基隆河整體治理計畫(前期計畫)結案報告」。
30. 劉駿明、陳健豐、林益生，2007，「節水季刊(48期)」，pp. 8-11。
31. 蔡丁貴、賴經都，2002，「基隆河洪水預報模式建置計畫」，經濟部水利署第 十河川局委託計畫期末報告。
32. 賴經都、蔡丁貴、簡振和、吳宜嶺，2002，「全流域不恆定流模式之淡水河系 統洪水預報」，第十三屆水利工程研討會論文集，D15-D22。
附錄一 全流域不恆定流模式介紹
∂ =非稜柱形因子（non-prismatic channel factor），渠槽為稜柱形時，則此值為零。若 h t, h x, u t, u x, A h xh,