後續研究之建議

第五章實證案例分析

6.2 後續研究之建議

在研究過程之中，仍有未臻完善之處，在此針對本研究進行過程中因時間及能力不足而遭遇之困難及無法解決之問題做一整理。建議後續相關之研究可以朝以下幾個方向著手，俾使高速公路決策模型更加完善及客觀，建議如下：

1.新的不確定性因子發展模型

本研究使用的隨機過程，其偏差率及（DR）及擴散率（VR）是以歷史資料求得的固定值，並相信在未來其值亦不變。實際上已經一些考慮偏差率及（DR）及擴散率（VR）

隨時間變動的模型已發展出來，如 CEV 模型及 GARCH 模型等。另一方面古典學派的時間序列等預測方法亦廣泛地應用在各種商情預測上。

2.道路維護成本的考量

道路維護的頻率及成本，隨著交通量及本身道路品質下降程度不同也異。考量生命週期內的道路維護行為，應該可以更完善的評估高速公路計畫。

3.均衡問題

第四章提到本研究的一個隱含假設為，決策者所決定的決策不會改變三個不確定性因子的發展。此假設放寬後，決策會變成一個均衡問題。高速公路的拓寬是否誘引超乎原本發展預期的交通量？拓寬工程作業期間，原本的交通量會受多大的衝擊？

參考文獻

中文部分

1. 戴天時，C++財務程式設計，證基會，民國九十四年。

2. 廖肇昌等編輯，國道工程實務，國道工程局，民國九十四年。

3. 謝劍平，固定收益證券投資與創新，智勝文化，民國八十八年。

4. （美）霍爾（John C. Hull）著，選擇權、期貨與其他衍生性商品，黃達業譯，普林斯頓國際，民國九十三年。

5. 「中山高速公路汐止五股段高架拓寬工程建設計畫書」，國道高速公路局，民國七十八年。

6. 「中山高速公路楊梅交流道至新竹系統交流道段拓寬工程建設計畫書」，國道高速公路局，民國八十四年。

7. 「中山高速公路新竹至員林段拓寬建設計畫書」，國道高速公路局，民國八十二年。

8. 「中山高速公路員林至高雄段拓寬建設計畫書」，國道高速公路局，民國八十四年。

9. 詹傑麟，「BOT 放棄選擇權研究－以台灣南北高速鐵路計畫為例」，國立交通大學，

碩士論文，民國八十八年。

英文部分

1. Trigeorgis, L., Real Options: Managerial Flexibility and Strategy in Resource Allocation, (1996), MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.

2. Baldwin, C. Y. and Clark, K. B.,“Capabilities and capital investment: New perspectives on capital budgeting”, Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 5(2), pp.67-82, 1992.

3. de Neufville, R.,“Real Options: Dealing with Uncertainty in Systems Planning and Design”, Integrated Assessment, Vol.4, No. 1, pp. 26-34, 2003.

4. Francis, P. and Hans, C. B., “Using Real Option and Decision Analysis to Evaluate Investments in the Architecture, Construction and Engineering Industry”, Construction Management and Economics, pp. 471-482, June 2004.

5. Hayes, R. and Garvin, D.,“Managing as if Tomorrow Mattered”, Harvard Business Review, 60(3), May-June 1963.

6. Kulatilaka, N. and Marcus, A. J., “Project valuation under uncertainty: when does DCF fail”, Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 5(3), pp.92-100, 1992.

參考文獻 7. McDonald, R. L. and Siegel, D. R.,“The Value of Waiting to Invest”, The Quarterly

Journal of Economics, pp.707-727, 1986.

8. Myers, S. C., “Finance Theory and Financial Strategy”, Midland Corporate Financial Journal, 5(1), Spring 1987.

9. Paddock, J., Siegel, D. and Smith, J.,“Option Valuation of Claims on Physical Assets:

The Case of Offshore Petroleum Lease”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 103(3), pp.479-508, 1988.

10. Pichayapan, P., Hino, S., Kishi, K. and Satoh, K. “Real Option Analysis (ROA) in Evaluation of Expressway Projects under Uncertainties”, Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.5, pp. 3015-3030, October 2003.

11. Ross, S. A.,“Uses, Abuses and Alternatives to the Net Present-Value Rule”, Financial Management, pp.96-102, 1995.

12. Trigeoris, L. and Mason, S. P.,“Valuing Managerial Flexibility”, Midland Corporate Financial Journal, 5(1), pp.14-21, Spring 1987.

13. Zhao, T. and Tseng, C., “Valuing Flexibility in Infrastructure Expansion”, Journal of Infrastructure Systems, pp. 89-97, September 2003.

14. Zhao, T., Tseng, C. and Sundararajan, S. K., “Highway Development Decision-Making under Uncertainty: A Real Options Approach”, Journal of Infrastructure Systems, pp.

23-32, March 2004.

15. Wang, T. and de Neufville, R., “Real Options in Projects”, 9th Annual Real Options International Conference, Paris, France, June 2005.

附錄一推導艾多輔助定理

2 2 2

附錄二高速公路興建與拓寬之成本比較

表 1 國道一號興建拓寬整理表

長度(公里) 原始車道數拓寬後車道增加車道數中山高興建汐止到五股楊梅到新竹員林到高雄基隆端-圓山 23.2 4 - - 92.8

圓山-台北 1.9 6 - - 11.4

台北-機場系統 27.4 8 - - 219.2 機場系統-楊梅 18.9 6 - - 113.4

楊梅-新竹系統 28.0 4 6 2 112.0 56.0 新竹系統-彰化系統 93.4 4 6 2 373.6

彰化系統-彰化 5.6 6 8 2 33.6 彰化-員林 12.6 4 6 2 50.4

員林-楠梓 145.2 4 6 2 580.8 290.4

楠梓-鼎金 6.2 6 8 2 37.2 12.4

鼎金-高雄 5.0 6 10 4 30.0 20.0

高雄-高雄端 5.4 4 6 2 21.6 10.8

汐止-環河 13.3 0 4 4 53.2

環河-五股 8.0 0 6 6 48.0

增加的車道*公里數 1676.0 101.2 56.0 333.6

資料來源：國道高速公路局

表 2 國道一號興建拓寬之成本比較表單位：新台幣百萬元 85 3,015.82 100.00 215.00 1.48 85 4,464.15 148.02 318.25 86 1,765.33 200.00 200.00 1.42 86 2,512.62 284.66 284.66 87 1,293.64 2,332.30 723.00 1.37 87 1,770.43 3,191.91 989.48 88 425.52 1,717.70 6,745.00 1.32 88 559.96 2,260.38 8,875.96 89 597.97 8,639.00 1.27 89 756.63 10,931.09

95 34,783.77 23,486.32 4,350.00 33,384.00 1.00 95 107,196.51 36,358.20 5,884.98 41,418.46

資料來源：國道興建工程局經本研究整理

中山高興建單位成本＝107,196.51 ÷ 1676.0＝ 63.96 百萬/車道公里汐止到五股單位成本＝ 36,358.20 ÷ 101.2＝359.27 百萬/車道公里楊梅到新竹單位成本＝ 5,884.98 ÷ 56.0＝105.09 百萬/車道公里員林到高雄單位成本＝ 41,418.46 ÷ 333.6＝124.16 百萬/車道公里

附錄三試擬案例數值資料

表 5 交通需求量模擬結果

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

100,000 102,506 108,666 112,112 119,715 126,743 135,032 141,425 150,120 167,838 175,557 181,366 192,524 201,074 209,807 212,679 217,665 227,284 238,321 250,970 265,751 279,856 300,996 329,809 344,999 355,856 100,000 105,869 109,830 117,809 123,000 128,146 130,142 134,592 140,057 142,874 147,931 151,974 162,584 173,361 182,887 191,940 197,317 208,388 220,743 231,609 232,597 247,581 246,440 250,550 272,681 284,414 100,000 105,452 110,711 118,491 126,842 132,239 136,592 143,914 149,041 155,263 167,856 174,405 178,763 189,632 192,541 203,577 212,797 218,661 225,874 232,751 247,146 262,135 269,353 280,693 299,250 314,299 100,000 107,154 112,127 115,985 118,498 127,437 136,456 143,642 152,951 154,242 163,805 170,296 176,108 180,197 190,971 202,324 213,434 217,885 234,500 239,855 251,672 264,236 275,938 287,901 302,273 328,502 100,000 105,280 112,254 120,249 123,611 134,124 141,865 147,458 157,202 164,577 164,328 171,424 173,905 180,965 192,322 203,841 211,232 213,280 224,293 237,874 250,876 269,300 284,999 300,822 312,318 313,799 100,000 105,079 110,454 121,405 131,277 139,284 149,701 156,343 166,787 172,217 176,953 192,298 200,091 215,780 228,632 236,603 254,689 265,398 287,007 287,781 306,724 324,172 350,413 359,211 380,176 403,677 100,000 107,140 109,699 115,141 123,994 134,841 141,585 148,938 156,920 168,826 171,242 180,965 185,026 199,334 208,752 221,983 229,181 242,980 247,347 263,801 274,538 283,348 292,296 309,458 323,878 348,514 100,000 103,736 109,109 118,414 121,415 128,181 133,910 136,489 145,642 149,809 160,895 165,396 171,846 182,254 188,862 198,151 210,342 215,434 229,826 238,814 245,704 251,125 259,948 284,355 299,475 323,305 100,000 106,023 111,841 117,300 123,902 130,487 136,951 142,597 147,841 159,867 167,510 179,326 189,980 194,661 208,583 220,338 227,243 237,137 242,661 249,952 267,541 270,234 283,507 286,973 303,745 323,784 100,000 112,320 116,212 120,890 124,146 132,522 142,079 155,981 162,714 170,192 173,886 182,369 190,919 202,996 211,535 221,790 231,020 247,059 261,711 271,774 287,738 297,875 311,457 330,049 343,594 360,727 100,000 103,140 111,025 118,015 125,829 138,815 142,561 154,003 167,280 177,715 181,118 187,985 201,156 213,172 227,109 234,126 246,393 260,811 277,347 285,015 297,670 299,932 312,608 318,951 340,207 351,494 100,000 104,651 112,259 117,728 122,179 124,677 127,275 127,937 138,383 148,343 152,747 161,217 170,952 172,838 182,407 195,801 202,378 210,810 221,480 230,341 235,812 250,105 262,237 277,831 295,624 308,451 100,000 105,159 111,455 116,935 122,117 128,316 130,347 132,430 134,565 141,842 151,071 157,036 168,872 184,430 193,026 192,796 204,201 210,802 216,840 223,405 239,040 244,941 256,538 266,840 272,169 288,240 100,000 104,844 108,630 112,469 118,524 124,645 135,359 141,069 147,562 157,686 168,175 170,231 184,788 192,739 205,930 211,745 223,905 233,069 245,860 258,920 270,196 282,632 283,474 294,625 312,116 330,697 100,000 105,375 114,585 122,674 128,263 135,480 140,492 148,233 155,718 160,722 172,818 184,898 197,823 213,024 225,338 238,789 265,279 267,720 285,656 304,696 318,757 323,215 342,436 368,300 384,716 397,695 100,000 107,772 112,310 120,258 124,415 129,824 134,616 141,992 147,777 146,020 154,219 164,914 171,626 181,539 192,203 209,465 226,101 239,209 252,024 264,385 275,829 289,358 297,212 299,653 316,461 338,937 100,000 104,349 111,120 114,443 121,092 128,402 139,674 149,201 158,395 171,533 183,019 196,808 203,232 210,558 220,494 232,097 249,417 260,900 272,093 286,486 315,145 327,079 363,006 394,447 400,390 424,075 100,000 104,761 110,235 113,784 117,425 124,428 133,079 139,536 148,847 157,846 161,295 171,496 184,838 192,492 209,439 218,830 231,274 248,642 265,911 285,081 296,593 308,920 332,127 352,087 364,841 383,752 100,000 103,097 108,843 116,243 125,693 129,117 133,211 139,801 145,042 158,891 165,284 175,634 187,625 202,571 211,161 220,186 230,584 249,529 256,130 276,637 291,259 306,463 324,201 343,272 361,193 367,160 100,000 104,933 108,720 112,121 120,494 122,680 128,133 136,182 141,120 148,912 164,757 174,479 190,001 201,712 209,677 218,546 232,988 254,916 267,786 278,941 292,183 300,701 313,894 328,528 349,575 384,364 100,000 105,133 110,492 111,053 113,458 118,135 121,425 128,443 133,010 142,307 153,002 155,539 165,136 169,166 176,378 188,285 193,233 204,856 209,272 230,567 238,983 249,801 255,297 275,127 287,179 298,785 100,000 103,111 111,252 117,095 120,122 122,027 128,386 134,829 141,373 145,165 158,105 165,280 178,581 183,123 193,175 200,685 214,740 223,757 242,827 251,526 267,001 285,792 306,057 319,360 337,098 346,077 100,000 106,494 111,854 113,858 122,673 128,367 135,744 147,127 152,321 163,592 168,273 180,838 192,277 200,284 213,518 224,822 233,972 252,367 261,339 277,842 298,333 322,463 344,144 347,553 364,567 373,062 100,000 104,197 109,122 114,940 120,211 126,099 132,730 140,825 150,055 153,300 161,628 166,790 173,924 187,519 193,331 202,184 216,572 229,271 247,516 265,462 273,984 299,661 315,545 344,382 359,442 372,510 100,000 98,355 105,017 111,527 119,974 124,163 127,940 128,741 136,339 144,000 155,702 164,007 173,069 179,820 190,633 200,860 213,030 220,063 229,499 244,147 254,752 271,854 287,229 299,436 317,755 334,361 100,000 107,110 109,923 114,243 118,370 118,534 127,507 130,395 132,617 137,904 149,485 159,107 164,262 171,236 177,560 190,277 199,739 208,460 216,561 232,804 246,252 269,990 286,171 309,854 320,918 343,143 100,000 105,563 108,715 114,521 121,906 131,975 142,821 156,962 160,311 165,209 177,249 185,525 193,283 211,196 221,075 227,521 243,180 257,903 271,186 288,063 310,848 323,778 341,139 355,714 369,316 391,028 100,000 105,053 109,499 115,299 121,968 128,232 139,455 151,637 164,859 172,782 179,215 190,465 195,664 197,921 208,913 231,067 241,009 257,913 276,989 297,006 306,651 330,604 348,718 370,366 401,143 418,446 100,000 105,368 112,347 119,877 125,666 132,009 134,291 142,350 150,339 155,420 160,989 175,702 178,811 189,389 195,822 210,389 219,800 233,272 244,295 256,268 271,291 286,516 315,583 335,438 349,801 364,723 100,000 104,838 106,508 109,904 116,123 121,452 129,385 135,471 142,465 152,485 156,664 161,764 167,029 171,354 178,956 186,562 185,519 203,080 210,262 217,767 229,961 250,541 261,244 268,337 283,790 303,280

表 6 土地價格模擬結果

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

3,000 3,357 3,738 4,009 4,620 5,173 5,669 6,184 6,584 7,285 8,064 8,623 9,766 10,721 11,489 12,621 13,506 14,441 15,781 17,343 19,468 22,221 24,740 27,748 30,270 33,152 3,000 3,398 3,735 4,151 4,510 4,940 5,344 5,862 6,326 6,981 7,418 8,077 9,120 10,176 11,156 11,857 13,269 14,361 15,479 17,041 19,236 21,156 23,098 24,809 28,140 31,671 3,000 3,196 3,570 3,922 4,292 4,804 5,266 5,860 6,439 7,011 7,707 8,516 9,432 10,557 11,952 13,156 14,940 16,616 18,448 20,509 22,694 25,504 28,322 30,735 32,990 35,986 3,000 3,313 3,637 4,044 4,386 4,933 5,332 5,982 6,610 7,383 8,031 8,923 9,861 10,812 12,343 13,783 15,490 16,698 17,800 19,592 20,964 23,732 26,339 29,278 31,861 34,629 3,000 3,342 3,635 3,990 4,392 4,903 5,308 5,942 6,348 6,930 7,506 8,378 9,317 10,420 11,962 13,644 14,567 16,624 19,212 21,565 24,553 26,842 29,745 32,542 34,712 37,520 3,000 3,286 3,720 4,232 4,729 5,234 5,949 6,793 7,442 7,958 8,861 9,582 10,267 11,212 12,628 13,778 14,819 16,315 18,140 19,884 22,273 24,303 27,126 30,104 32,507 36,333 3,000 3,261 3,606 3,994 4,509 5,194 5,626 6,210 6,862 7,859 8,662 9,609 10,543 12,032 12,962 13,938 15,337 17,030 18,357 20,272 21,967 24,427 26,650 29,026 32,304 35,803 3,000 3,327 3,555 3,936 4,412 4,908 5,296 5,694 6,294 7,118 8,007 8,777 9,334 10,363 11,356 12,431 14,246 15,596 17,063 18,482 20,407 22,729 24,994 28,047 31,356 34,078 3,000 3,369 3,790 4,185 4,531 4,927 5,347 5,829 6,532 7,295 8,050 8,975 9,686 10,649 11,827 13,001 14,352 16,327 17,443 19,432 21,391 23,316 25,237 27,974 29,803 33,484 3,000 3,359 3,806 4,289 4,827 5,251 5,924 6,676 7,758 8,948 9,879 11,263 12,434 13,682 15,135 16,779 18,549 20,032 22,005 23,863 26,476 29,069 32,306 34,373 39,296 43,856 3,000 3,250 3,636 4,089 4,485 5,030 5,406 5,753 6,423 7,029 7,796 8,742 9,536 10,611 11,786 12,633 13,990 14,875 16,706 18,456 20,508 21,868 24,224 26,868 29,246 31,753 3,000 3,425 3,915 4,493 5,092 5,356 6,018 6,474 7,256 8,065 8,792 9,555 10,788 11,652 13,428 14,340 16,232 17,555 19,626 21,254 23,861 25,845 29,962 32,831 35,609 39,821 3,000 3,378 3,678 4,070 4,463 5,086 5,633 6,168 6,790 7,268 8,088 9,240 9,930 11,033 11,999 13,197 14,285 15,535 16,695 18,761 21,178 23,493 26,169 29,860 32,881 35,522 3,000 3,289 3,555 3,818 4,266 4,627 5,032 5,717 6,431 7,122 7,961 8,785 9,698 10,509 11,359 12,857 14,113 15,719 17,369 19,501 20,654 23,188 25,904 28,555 30,894 33,953 3,000 3,290 3,684 4,199 4,607 5,135 5,744 6,333 6,838 7,473 8,654 9,421 10,753 11,761 12,958 14,998 17,028 18,491 20,701 22,085 24,699 27,352 29,908 32,834 36,248 39,403 3,000 3,273 3,589 4,086 4,328 4,719 5,258 5,886 6,749 7,447 8,214 9,378 10,110 11,244 12,811 14,237 16,243 18,548 20,722 23,022 25,040 26,783 29,371 31,972 35,783 39,890 3,000 3,233 3,591 3,946 4,434 4,942 5,578 6,208 7,024 7,772 8,929 10,012 10,826 11,846 13,192 15,155 16,534 18,651 21,126 23,430 25,342 28,132 31,459 35,760 38,491 41,756 3,000 3,439 3,758 4,176 4,659 5,082 5,661 6,211 6,901 7,738 8,595 9,496 10,468 11,419 12,313 13,658 14,685 16,120 17,727 19,467 21,480 23,335 25,656 28,865 32,833 36,748 3,000 3,317 3,689 4,050 4,559 4,949 5,591 6,084 6,722 7,348 8,248 9,063 10,012 11,150 11,924 13,037 14,163 16,041 18,371 20,379 23,252 25,078 27,587 30,301 33,996 38,189 3,000 3,288 3,691 4,105 4,553 4,980 5,616 6,125 7,000 7,829 8,825 9,653 10,597 11,569 12,304 13,170 15,060 16,112 17,022 18,514 19,854 22,172 24,429 27,262 31,204 35,246 3,000 3,344 3,606 3,870 4,229 4,665 5,011 5,358 5,971 6,817 7,475 8,440 9,616 10,751 11,655 13,042 14,804 16,417 18,027 20,080 21,886 24,489 26,788 29,470 33,320 36,398 3,000 3,369 3,720 4,101 4,435 4,701 5,299 5,860 6,475 6,903 7,647 8,416 9,365 10,019 11,355 12,892 14,304 15,729 17,815 19,696 22,190 24,365 27,266 30,564 33,530 36,936 3,000 3,303 3,774 4,162 4,532 4,974 5,629 6,392 7,060 7,622 8,272 9,214 10,577 11,632 12,960 14,455 15,400 17,174 19,166 21,603 23,887 26,184 29,072 31,631 34,544 38,806 3,000 3,262 3,540 3,914 4,414 4,955 5,575 6,244 6,803 7,437 8,228 9,011 10,193 11,320 12,444 13,822 15,286 16,406 18,748 20,547 22,789 25,526 28,792 31,714 36,344 39,494 3,000 3,271 3,525 3,818 4,143 4,650 5,032 5,451 5,728 6,063 6,705 7,180 7,941 8,811 9,724 10,709 11,827 13,371 14,861 16,731 18,411 20,474 22,492 25,809 27,564 30,154 3,000 3,381 3,690 4,006 4,459 4,854 5,515 6,326 6,918 7,719 8,496 9,251 10,354 11,361 12,487 14,223 15,682 18,006 19,575 21,633 23,770 27,216 29,996 33,019 37,036 41,647 3,000 3,208 3,426 3,645 3,927 4,559 4,954 5,622 6,124 6,726 7,533 8,463 9,152 10,345 10,960 12,530 13,515 15,258 16,662 18,785 20,430 23,028 24,252 27,022 30,418 33,210 3,000 3,253 3,648 4,024 4,481 4,800 5,292 5,900 6,544 7,464 8,189 8,752 9,943 10,925 12,266 13,616 15,358 17,241 19,589 21,282 23,018 25,333 27,767 29,710 32,942 37,229 3,000 3,341 3,773 4,290 4,687 5,277 5,924 6,366 6,910 7,617 8,320 9,206 10,181 11,471 12,957 13,976 15,545 17,039 18,828 20,474 23,602 25,667 28,052 31,068 35,061 38,948 3,000 3,340 3,642 3,901 4,341 4,754 5,190 5,747 6,498 7,259 7,654 8,584 9,182 10,249 11,358 11,981 12,883 14,486 15,798 18,079 19,736 21,759 24,295 27,019 29,882 33,561

表 7 營建物價指數模擬結果

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

100.00% 103.94% 110.12% 110.82% 111.03% 121.51% 126.71% 129.99% 132.67% 135.40% 137.05% 141.37% 140.91% 137.34% 139.27% 142.11% 141.80% 146.93% 154.10% 153.88% 158.39% 162.92% 157.60% 170.96% 175.47% 176.04%

100.00% 99.97% 106.15% 108.78% 108.27% 114.51% 113.24% 113.32% 118.63% 124.90% 124.20% 126.00% 131.12% 134.78% 140.62% 143.38% 142.46% 140.35% 142.12% 148.19% 148.28% 147.10% 148.57% 150.13% 153.67% 157.59%

100.00% 98.50% 100.75% 104.07% 105.75% 107.66% 112.64% 112.95% 116.32% 118.03% 119.01% 115.90% 118.11% 117.60% 119.88% 121.80% 125.65% 125.29% 128.62% 133.35% 133.74% 134.61% 140.39% 145.34% 142.45% 148.88%

100.00% 101.66% 104.85% 104.84% 107.34% 111.57% 112.90% 114.14% 118.27% 119.50% 123.28% 122.47% 129.82% 133.64% 135.11% 135.86% 141.80% 141.78% 145.29% 147.17% 145.20% 150.03% 152.85% 158.07% 162.69% 166.79%

100.00% 101.74% 103.67% 106.30% 110.75% 113.72% 117.69% 120.96% 123.69% 124.30% 127.36% 127.14% 132.75% 133.19% 136.21% 140.54% 144.73% 145.12% 154.21% 156.27% 156.51% 161.23% 162.61% 168.16% 177.05% 180.10%

100.00% 102.42% 105.62% 105.48% 105.50% 107.77% 106.91% 105.18% 106.76% 108.69% 112.47% 115.78% 119.85% 123.80% 131.71% 138.40% 139.84% 141.44% 147.36% 151.83% 152.69% 157.83% 158.13% 160.22% 165.89% 163.77%

100.00% 102.03% 104.73% 106.17% 107.15% 108.61% 109.95% 110.04% 109.40% 115.09% 120.76% 123.63% 126.17% 130.03% 133.66% 134.50% 133.95% 137.19% 140.28% 141.43% 143.56% 144.32% 145.65% 149.12% 151.10% 154.61%

100.00% 101.93% 104.21% 105.65% 107.94% 107.25% 105.55% 106.40% 106.84% 107.37% 109.45% 113.08% 112.31% 111.73% 113.13% 118.29% 121.15% 122.20% 126.75% 126.80% 132.18% 132.22% 135.43% 137.49% 143.82% 148.17%

100.00% 100.69% 101.25% 104.64% 106.02% 108.63% 111.73% 111.12% 113.23% 113.70% 119.35% 118.66% 121.51% 124.47% 127.79% 129.34% 129.84% 129.18% 128.17% 128.88% 135.25% 138.64% 145.52% 148.30% 150.99% 158.80%

100.00% 105.74% 110.92% 111.93% 119.94% 121.12% 123.89% 125.20% 129.82% 133.88% 139.56% 145.46% 153.56% 153.75% 155.39% 162.46% 164.41% 171.12% 172.04% 175.81% 170.86% 169.19% 174.87% 181.32% 183.37% 190.16%

100.00% 100.00% 102.10% 104.09% 104.12% 106.12% 109.17% 108.28% 109.74% 110.18% 114.02% 113.04% 117.12% 118.86% 122.24% 130.29% 131.36% 137.94% 140.65% 141.73% 148.08% 146.58% 154.23% 151.40% 155.30% 156.55%

100.00% 103.03% 107.84% 110.39% 111.10% 111.37% 112.16% 113.50% 113.87% 116.85% 119.95% 122.87% 124.88% 124.36% 125.69% 131.04% 130.16% 131.28% 133.43% 138.45% 139.56% 146.46% 153.73% 156.23% 157.55% 167.83%

100.00% 99.69% 103.10% 103.23% 107.45% 108.78% 112.07% 114.75% 118.72% 123.73% 123.06% 126.91% 130.29% 138.70% 139.16% 143.53% 150.89% 154.67% 154.52% 154.55% 151.80% 157.02% 164.37% 171.90% 176.08% 180.89%

100.00% 101.16% 99.32% 100.42% 103.53% 106.21% 107.06% 105.78% 105.33% 108.96% 111.12% 115.46% 117.30% 119.98% 122.19% 124.41% 126.73% 130.15% 137.61% 139.01% 142.46% 148.20% 145.44% 145.76% 139.00% 144.52%

100.00% 102.15% 104.88% 106.86% 112.86% 119.39% 120.98% 122.16% 123.69% 126.15% 125.45% 127.43% 128.70% 129.52% 131.60% 136.82% 142.63% 148.79% 147.84% 149.40% 153.75% 155.22% 158.48% 160.31% 159.89% 166.62%

100.00% 100.10% 98.29% 101.62% 105.52% 100.32% 100.09% 101.50% 103.47% 105.48% 108.42% 109.35% 114.14% 121.83% 125.00% 127.45% 132.89% 133.43% 132.36% 137.90% 139.39% 140.99% 151.64% 145.43% 147.41% 152.88%

100.00% 104.07% 101.97% 103.53% 108.22% 106.45% 111.99% 116.43% 115.71% 114.34% 119.63% 122.69% 122.66% 124.16% 123.80% 126.32% 132.27% 139.68% 143.52% 143.20% 148.89% 156.15% 160.85% 165.61% 168.33% 170.77%

100.00% 105.62% 107.43% 108.21% 110.80% 113.22% 112.59% 116.82% 118.01% 121.00% 124.85% 133.38% 136.17% 142.29% 145.22% 148.71% 149.97% 156.48% 158.59% 159.13% 165.09% 170.64% 170.22% 171.07% 181.59% 180.76%

100.00% 102.34% 103.24% 107.41% 109.15% 109.25% 112.32% 115.60% 116.07% 119.51% 120.53% 126.22% 123.89% 125.21% 128.85% 133.31% 132.89% 138.27% 140.39% 144.20% 152.05% 153.11% 156.35% 157.29% 159.00% 161.36%

100.00% 102.26% 104.41% 105.94% 105.79% 107.19% 107.76% 109.08% 110.98% 114.90% 116.67% 121.59% 121.15% 125.63% 127.81% 128.88% 130.20% 135.10% 132.27% 135.80% 141.07% 142.46% 146.96% 147.86% 146.11% 149.43%

100.00% 101.58% 102.48% 106.76% 111.06% 113.11% 118.63% 125.45% 128.58% 131.40% 132.11% 133.52% 134.19% 135.16% 132.18% 130.87% 134.75% 138.61% 138.41% 139.77% 144.59% 145.54% 151.12% 155.18% 155.94% 164.33%

100.00% 101.97% 103.35% 106.07% 109.35% 112.23% 115.34% 119.91% 125.47% 124.09% 123.04% 125.04% 127.47% 128.69% 130.25% 134.66% 140.67% 142.90% 145.40% 150.04% 153.79% 159.16% 164.08% 166.73% 171.19% 174.07%

100.00% 102.07% 103.87% 106.59% 108.54% 113.66% 120.15% 124.01% 128.48% 133.01% 135.76% 136.71% 143.21% 149.76% 153.88% 153.12% 155.54% 160.43% 160.92% 167.35% 167.03% 173.72% 176.46% 180.83% 179.85% 181.63%

100.00% 103.33% 106.91% 107.62% 110.51% 112.21% 113.51% 118.74% 121.24% 125.61% 124.50% 130.27% 132.36% 134.43% 136.23% 140.04% 145.14% 151.76% 159.14% 164.66% 163.24% 165.68% 164.22% 167.66% 171.32% 169.47%

100.00% 98.39% 97.59% 100.61% 97.68% 100.64% 102.37% 105.39% 105.74% 106.68% 106.47% 106.28% 104.74% 108.84% 112.03% 111.49% 114.62% 114.57% 118.56% 120.70% 129.22% 135.76% 136.66% 137.12% 141.06% 141.53%

100.00% 104.04% 106.02% 108.19% 112.53% 114.87% 116.17% 121.85% 125.09% 129.62% 130.32% 136.76% 137.33% 140.78% 142.42% 139.02% 143.45% 142.12% 145.02% 149.73% 149.10% 156.71% 154.95% 164.22% 166.57% 171.90%

100.00% 100.98% 100.38% 102.01% 105.46% 109.45% 113.07% 116.25% 120.55% 122.23% 123.88% 125.82% 128.79% 134.56% 138.51% 138.22% 144.77% 149.34% 152.87% 153.27% 158.20% 156.83% 155.45% 159.15% 164.19% 160.36%

100.00% 104.37% 104.98% 109.09% 109.04% 112.05% 113.16% 114.99% 115.62% 115.43% 120.75% 121.81% 123.45% 120.64% 125.10% 126.19% 124.88% 126.76% 132.00% 137.31% 145.44% 146.29% 145.39% 144.64% 146.91% 148.77%

100.00% 102.85% 108.99% 112.14% 113.17% 114.77% 118.45% 124.73% 130.32% 131.07% 133.72% 133.89% 137.11% 139.46% 142.47% 145.58% 148.69% 150.63% 148.22% 152.66% 154.98% 154.99% 164.31% 170.58% 186.09% 186.21%

100.00% 101.85% 103.21% 105.38% 103.81% 102.10% 104.83% 108.01% 110.98% 113.22% 118.44% 121.32% 124.97% 129.19% 132.28% 132.38% 132.12% 131.76% 137.96% 142.04% 143.60% 147.99% 150.80% 155.09% 161.78% 161.52%

表 8 方案一現金流評估結果

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

18,413,497,960 1,025,058,140 1,086,663,036 1,121,123,459 1,197,154,372 1,267,429,607 1,350,322,845 1,414,249,045 1,501,204,572 1,678,375,166 1,755,574,820 (1,674,173,537) 1,925,238,789 17,240,224,961 1,058,689,213 1,098,299,692 1,178,088,042 1,230,004,760 1,281,462,947 1,301,423,125 1,345,916,498 1,400,565,037 1,428,743,123 1,479,313,648 (1,606,096,232) 1,625,838,475 18,371,812,063 1,054,521,461 1,107,110,990 1,184,913,495 1,268,415,100 1,322,393,055 1,365,918,197 1,439,138,507 1,490,409,177 1,552,625,520 1,678,559,351 (1,212,641,583) 1,787,631,378 18,130,971,147 1,071,539,095 1,121,267,389 1,159,851,058 1,184,980,991 1,274,366,256 1,364,564,704 1,436,417,154 1,529,505,827 1,542,420,949 1,638,047,347 (1,415,728,289) 1,761,079,398 18,313,082,247 1,052,799,567 1,122,540,627 1,202,489,199 1,236,110,533 1,341,238,278 1,418,646,193 1,474,584,124 1,572,020,708 1,645,774,980 1,643,284,474 (1,456,918,836) 1,739,053,002 19,845,246,573 1,050,792,997 1,104,538,053 1,214,046,132 1,312,767,937 1,392,836,711 1,497,010,346 1,563,428,592 1,667,870,544 1,722,166,785 1,769,533,524 (1,234,210,505) 2,000,913,276 18,987,924,038 1,071,398,816 1,096,987,700 1,151,408,780 1,239,935,045 1,348,407,792 1,415,850,525 1,489,383,532 1,569,203,707 1,688,264,403 1,712,423,594 (1,393,234,929) 1,850,260,539 17,951,813,347 1,037,359,920 1,091,089,620 1,184,139,817 1,214,154,433 1,281,814,913 1,339,097,968 1,364,888,045 1,456,422,808 1,498,091,052 1,608,953,080 (1,265,869,157) 1,718,464,763 18,813,313,151 1,060,232,328 1,118,408,066 1,172,995,053 1,239,019,257 1,304,870,851 1,369,507,112 1,425,967,557 1,478,408,777 1,598,669,317 1,675,103,469 (1,253,135,224) 1,899,802,819 18,993,069,443 1,123,204,586 1,162,121,816 1,208,895,927 1,241,464,040 1,325,216,780 1,420,786,300 1,559,809,922 1,627,142,403 1,701,923,992 1,738,859,326 (1,953,860,010) 1,909,187,862 19,783,173,167 1,031,395,699 1,110,252,522 1,180,146,005 1,258,288,283 1,388,149,558 1,425,611,465 1,540,033,357 1,672,804,250 1,777,148,994 1,800,000,000 (1,116,328,585) 2,011,558,139 17,330,592,780 1,046,507,364 1,122,594,100 1,177,283,834 1,221,789,221 1,246,773,891 1,272,747,922 1,279,368,809 1,383,829,640 1,483,430,045 1,527,471,351 (1,561,815,642) 1,709,524,747 17,330,986,191 1,051,592,784 1,114,552,142 1,169,346,649 1,221,170,045 1,283,160,461 1,303,467,836 1,324,295,314 1,345,652,857 1,418,417,401 1,510,713,119 (1,660,910,871) 1,688,721,016 18,472,356,550 1,048,444,530 1,086,304,560 1,124,690,116 1,185,241,319 1,246,450,761 1,353,586,836 1,410,692,760 1,475,616,756 1,576,860,865 1,681,752,989 (1,265,769,702) 1,847,881,662 19,378,609,697 1,053,747,263 1,145,850,424 1,226,740,583 1,282,634,614 1,354,801,744 1,404,916,759 1,482,329,754 1,557,181,280 1,607,216,778 1,728,178,938 (1,455,135,663) 1,978,232,315 18,369,760,654 1,077,723,200 1,123,095,188 1,202,579,375 1,244,150,062 1,298,239,456 1,346,160,265 1,419,921,119 1,477,767,002 1,460,200,621 1,542,190,277 (1,241,204,145) 1,716,264,272 19,274,431,240 1,043,487,479 1,111,195,820 1,144,430,552 1,210,921,888 1,284,022,396 1,396,740,940 1,492,010,900 1,583,953,991 1,715,328,962 1,800,000,000 (1,404,650,347) 2,032,316,616 18,307,738,137 1,047,611,621 1,102,352,011 1,137,838,293 1,174,252,566 1,244,279,919 1,330,790,499 1,395,364,016 1,488,470,826 1,578,464,625 1,612,948,876 (1,664,881,420) 1,848,378,021 18,621,530,050 1,030,973,992 1,088,434,426 1,162,425,071 1,256,931,291 1,291,172,860 1,332,110,491 1,398,007,592 1,450,423,098 1,588,907,659 1,652,840,147 (1,447,834,901) 1,876,246,212 18,377,239,187 1,049,325,031 1,087,199,873 1,121,207,533 1,204,940,535 1,226,797,020 1,281,327,908 1,361,822,668 1,411,196,792 1,489,124,874 1,647,572,567 (1,410,937,286) 1,900,010,260 16,691,640,658 1,051,328,798 1,104,919,856 1,110,534,363 1,134,579,574 1,181,349,623 1,214,254,106 1,284,434,797 1,330,097,584 1,423,070,332 1,530,024,937 (1,748,016,045) 1,651,355,203 17,820,803,349 1,031,108,978 1,112,524,805 1,170,948,122 1,201,223,961 1,220,274,113 1,283,857,954 1,348,290,781 1,413,730,142 1,451,647,298 1,581,051,808 (1,479,271,217) 1,785,812,581 18,758,548,356 1,064,942,762 1,118,538,757 1,138,581,719 1,226,730,016 1,283,669,824 1,357,444,341 1,471,272,383 1,523,205,053 1,635,924,903 1,682,728,012 (1,625,235,799) 1,922,773,524 17,993,113,204 1,041,968,735 1,091,217,118 1,149,399,518 1,202,111,814 1,260,988,490 1,327,303,044 1,408,252,296 1,500,552,902 1,533,002,750 1,616,276,528 (1,613,382,409) 1,739,242,891 17,721,839,968 983,550,950 1,050,170,481 1,115,265,523 1,199,744,526 1,241,628,651 1,279,397,865 1,287,414,612 1,363,390,552 1,439,996,422 1,557,015,210 (1,023,996,567) 1,730,693,251 16,840,579,936 1,071,100,974 1,099,232,834 1,142,434,871 1,183,703,057 1,185,338,506 1,275,067,579 1,303,947,136 1,326,174,644 1,379,042,763 1,494,845,207 (1,837,986,962) 1,642,616,479 19,293,714,918 1,055,634,175 1,087,148,086 1,145,212,318 1,219,064,353 1,319,747,819 1,428,209,724 1,569,619,388 1,603,109,600 1,652,093,044 1,772,491,783 (1,351,112,549) 1,932,828,732 19,235,315,191 1,050,529,211 1,094,992,312 1,152,985,686 1,219,682,462 1,282,323,742 1,394,549,914 1,516,370,303 1,648,590,547 1,727,816,126 1,792,153,907 (1,292,532,767) 1,956,639,680 18,324,215,470 1,053,683,725 1,123,465,805 1,198,765,713 1,256,655,217 1,320,089,950 1,342,914,182 1,423,500,668 1,503,392,104 1,554,204,631 1,609,885,897 (1,611,173,111) 1,788,111,553 17,028,164,676 1,048,381,312 1,065,083,192 1,099,042,428 1,161,234,595 1,214,515,062 1,293,849,580 1,354,706,725 1,424,645,036 1,524,849,972 1,566,637,782 (1,452,447,110) 1,670,288,431

期望值：18,333,843,610 元＝18,334 百萬元 (第十一年拓寬至 8 車道，30 公尺) 標準差： 835,888,568 元＝ 835 百萬元

表 8 方案一現金流評估結果（續）

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

2,010,735,451 2,098,067,925 2,126,792,539 2,176,652,162 2,272,841,595 2,383,206,259 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 1,733,612,089 1,828,873,190 1,919,404,381 1,973,174,411 2,083,880,242 2,207,425,570 2,316,091,297 2,325,971,613 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 1,896,324,807 1,925,410,978 2,035,767,674 2,127,970,043 2,186,614,194 2,258,740,725 2,327,506,082 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 1,801,972,022 1,909,706,825 2,023,238,871 2,134,339,255 2,178,845,741 2,345,002,268 2,398,546,585 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 1,809,646,043 1,923,221,140 2,038,412,760 2,112,316,075 2,132,802,846 2,242,929,787 2,378,736,770 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,157,803,291 2,286,315,989 2,366,025,135 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 1,993,337,510 2,087,516,873 2,219,831,415 2,291,811,677 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 1,822,544,879 1,888,624,324 1,981,511,244 2,103,424,258 2,154,339,772 2,298,261,519 2,388,143,226 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 1,946,613,257 2,085,831,230 2,203,377,789 2,272,426,853 2,371,367,694 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,029,956,549 2,115,346,284 2,217,898,127 2,310,202,805 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,131,717,884 2,271,089,726 2,341,260,997 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 1,728,377,129 1,824,066,737 1,958,008,657 2,023,783,721 2,108,100,031 2,214,803,458 2,303,408,740 2,358,120,596 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 1,844,303,906 1,930,257,072 1,927,955,993 2,042,008,426 2,108,015,527 2,168,403,733 2,234,050,658 2,390,401,502 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 1,927,392,454 2,059,296,552 2,117,446,882 2,239,050,728 2,330,689,290 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,130,243,996 2,253,379,812 2,387,887,831 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 1,815,388,418 1,922,032,298 2,094,646,922 2,261,010,888 2,392,094,035 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,105,583,984 2,204,939,269 2,320,969,718 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 1,924,915,940 2,094,386,269 2,188,304,442 2,312,736,617 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,025,706,173 2,111,609,102 2,201,855,406 2,305,835,039 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,017,115,923 2,096,771,001 2,185,464,854 2,329,875,863 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 1,691,658,300 1,763,778,206 1,882,853,812 1,932,330,593 2,048,563,737 2,092,719,616 2,305,668,085 2,389,832,076 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 1,831,233,210 1,931,746,931 2,006,854,852 2,147,399,060 2,237,568,623 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,002,840,035 2,135,180,757 2,248,223,147 2,339,724,961 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 1,875,188,015 1,933,308,052 2,021,840,951 2,165,717,340 2,292,706,793 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 1,798,199,005 1,906,332,946 2,008,604,178 2,130,303,984 2,200,628,886 2,294,993,116 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 1,712,358,786 1,775,603,257 1,902,769,256 1,997,389,646 2,084,595,548 2,165,605,873 2,328,041,920 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,111,961,439 2,210,749,329 2,275,209,269 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 1,979,210,604 2,089,128,112 2,310,674,860 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 1,893,888,212 1,958,219,329 2,103,891,948 2,198,000,330 2,332,722,274 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 1,713,543,545 1,789,558,197 1,865,615,038 1,855,192,985 2,030,800,115 2,102,618,267 2,177,673,185 2,299,613,232 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,400,000,000

表 9 方案二現金流評估結果

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

19,393,196,708 1,025,058,140 1,086,663,036 1,121,123,459 1,197,154,372 1,267,429,607 1,350,322,845 1,414,249,045 1,501,204,572 1,678,375,166 1,755,574,820 386,270,147 1,925,238,789 18,106,120,646 1,058,689,213 1,098,299,692 1,178,088,042 1,230,004,760 1,281,462,947 1,301,423,125 1,345,916,498 1,400,565,037 1,428,743,123 1,479,313,648 259,705,594 1,625,838,475 19,197,882,062 1,054,521,461 1,107,110,990 1,184,913,495 1,268,415,100 1,322,393,055 1,365,918,197 1,439,138,507 1,490,409,177 1,552,625,520 1,678,559,351 585,044,804 1,787,631,378 19,013,320,306 1,071,539,095 1,121,267,389 1,159,851,058 1,184,980,991 1,274,366,256 1,364,564,704 1,436,417,154 1,529,505,827 1,542,420,949 1,638,047,347 478,214,560 1,761,079,398 19,198,828,329 1,052,799,567 1,122,540,627 1,202,489,199 1,236,110,533 1,341,238,278 1,418,646,193 1,474,584,124 1,572,020,708 1,645,774,980 1,643,284,474 442,833,905 1,739,053,002 20,717,351,584 1,050,792,997 1,104,538,053 1,214,046,132 1,312,767,937 1,392,836,711 1,497,010,346 1,563,428,592 1,667,870,544 1,722,166,785 1,769,533,524 642,211,376 2,000,913,276 19,907,112,631 1,071,398,816 1,096,987,700 1,151,408,780 1,239,935,045 1,348,407,792 1,415,850,525 1,489,383,532 1,569,203,707 1,688,264,403 1,712,423,594 563,715,854 1,850,260,539 18,772,828,890 1,037,359,920 1,091,089,620 1,184,139,817 1,214,154,433 1,281,814,913 1,339,097,968 1,364,888,045 1,456,422,808 1,498,091,052 1,608,953,080 523,172,395 1,718,464,763 19,675,666,723 1,060,232,328 1,118,408,066 1,172,995,053 1,239,019,257 1,304,870,851 1,369,507,112 1,425,967,557 1,478,408,777 1,598,669,317 1,675,103,469 606,608,387 1,899,802,819 20,112,410,640 1,123,204,586 1,162,121,816 1,208,895,927 1,241,464,040 1,325,216,780 1,420,786,300 1,559,809,922 1,627,142,403 1,701,923,992 1,738,859,326 345,419,650 1,909,187,862 20,602,397,288 1,031,395,699 1,110,252,522 1,180,146,005 1,258,288,283 1,388,149,558 1,425,611,465 1,540,033,357 1,672,804,250 1,777,148,994 1,800,000,000 669,649,028 2,011,558,139 18,242,981,033 1,046,507,364 1,122,594,100 1,177,283,834 1,221,789,221 1,246,773,891 1,272,747,922 1,279,368,809 1,383,829,640 1,483,430,045 1,527,471,351 383,504,252 1,709,524,747 18,253,210,906 1,051,592,784 1,114,552,142 1,169,346,649 1,221,170,045 1,283,160,461 1,303,467,836 1,324,295,314 1,345,652,857 1,418,417,401 1,510,713,119 301,232,711 1,688,721,016 19,307,651,744 1,048,444,530 1,086,304,560 1,124,690,116 1,185,241,319 1,246,450,761 1,353,586,836 1,410,692,760 1,475,616,756 1,576,860,865 1,681,752,989 547,694,897 1,847,881,662 20,311,779,019 1,053,747,263 1,145,850,424 1,226,740,583 1,282,634,614 1,354,801,744 1,404,916,759 1,482,329,754 1,557,181,280 1,607,216,778 1,728,178,938 525,726,913 1,978,232,315 19,195,349,392 1,077,723,200 1,123,095,188 1,202,579,375 1,244,150,062 1,298,239,456 1,346,160,265 1,419,921,119 1,477,767,002 1,460,200,621 1,542,190,277 555,659,123 1,716,264,272 20,205,802,993 1,043,487,479 1,111,195,820 1,144,430,552 1,210,921,888 1,284,022,396 1,396,740,940 1,492,010,900 1,583,953,991 1,715,328,962 1,800,000,000 573,137,776 2,032,316,616 19,279,011,837 1,047,611,621 1,102,352,011 1,137,838,293 1,174,252,566 1,244,279,919 1,330,790,499 1,395,364,016 1,488,470,826 1,578,464,625 1,612,948,876 381,152,571 1,848,378,021 19,531,954,609 1,030,973,992 1,088,434,426 1,162,425,071 1,256,931,291 1,291,172,860 1,332,110,491 1,398,007,592 1,450,423,098 1,588,907,659 1,652,840,147 494,126,410 1,876,246,212 19,286,417,663 1,049,325,031 1,087,199,873 1,121,207,533 1,204,940,535 1,226,797,020 1,281,327,908 1,361,822,668 1,411,196,792 1,489,124,874 1,647,572,567 528,892,800 1,900,010,260 17,617,404,274 1,051,328,798 1,104,919,856 1,110,534,363 1,134,579,574 1,181,349,623 1,214,254,106 1,284,434,797 1,330,097,584 1,423,070,332 1,530,024,937 220,180,260 1,651,355,203 18,695,955,614 1,031,108,978 1,112,524,805 1,170,948,122 1,201,223,961 1,220,274,113 1,283,857,954 1,348,290,781 1,413,730,142 1,451,647,298 1,581,051,808 402,362,501 1,785,812,581 19,736,900,557 1,064,942,762 1,118,538,757 1,138,581,719 1,226,730,016 1,283,669,824 1,357,444,341 1,471,272,383 1,523,205,053 1,635,924,903 1,682,728,012 432,904,832 1,922,773,524 18,924,929,214 1,041,968,735 1,091,217,118 1,149,399,518 1,202,111,814 1,260,988,490 1,327,303,044 1,408,252,296 1,500,552,902 1,533,002,750 1,616,276,528 365,165,543 1,739,242,891 18,433,082,029 983,550,950 1,050,170,481 1,115,265,523 1,199,744,526 1,241,628,651 1,279,397,865 1,287,414,612 1,363,390,552 1,439,996,422 1,557,015,210 577,295,078 1,730,693,251 17,820,859,750 1,071,100,974 1,099,232,834 1,142,434,871 1,183,703,057 1,185,338,506 1,275,067,579 1,303,947,136 1,326,174,644 1,379,042,763 1,494,845,207 223,450,542 1,642,616,479 20,175,467,060 1,055,634,175 1,087,148,086 1,145,212,318 1,219,064,353 1,319,747,819 1,428,209,724 1,569,619,388 1,603,109,600 1,652,093,044 1,772,491,783 541,809,198 1,932,828,732 20,106,272,177 1,050,529,211 1,094,992,312 1,152,985,686 1,219,682,462 1,282,323,742 1,394,549,914 1,516,370,303 1,648,590,547 1,727,816,126 1,792,153,907 581,925,602 1,956,639,680 19,285,707,340 1,053,683,725 1,123,465,805 1,198,765,713 1,256,655,217 1,320,089,950 1,342,914,182 1,423,500,668 1,503,392,104 1,554,204,631 1,609,885,897 418,130,633 1,788,111,553 17,888,873,606 1,048,381,312 1,065,083,192 1,099,042,428 1,161,234,595 1,214,515,062 1,293,849,580 1,354,706,725 1,424,645,036 1,524,849,972 1,566,637,782 404,483,603 1,670,288,431

期望值：19,233,224,221 元＝19,233 百萬元 (第十一年拓寬至 8 車道，30 公尺) 標準差： 841,867,773 元＝ 842 百萬元

表 9 方案二現金流評估結果（續）

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

表 10 方案三現金流評估結果

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

19,227,759,391 1,025,058,140 1,086,663,036 1,121,123,459 1,197,154,372 1,267,429,607 1,350,322,845 1,414,249,045 1,501,204,572 1,678,375,166 1,755,574,820 1,813,655,550 1,925,238,789 17,842,837,477 1,058,689,213 1,098,299,692 1,178,088,042 1,230,004,760 1,281,462,947 1,301,423,125 1,345,916,498 1,400,565,037 1,428,743,123 1,479,313,648 1,519,741,387 1,625,838,475 18,875,528,639 1,054,521,461 1,107,110,990 1,184,913,495 1,268,415,100 1,322,393,055 1,365,918,197 1,439,138,507 1,490,409,177 1,552,625,520 1,678,559,351 1,744,050,417 1,787,631,378 18,729,402,180 1,071,539,095 1,121,267,389 1,159,851,058 1,184,980,991 1,274,366,256 1,364,564,704 1,436,417,154 1,529,505,827 1,542,420,949 1,638,047,347 1,702,957,574 1,761,079,398 18,942,191,929 1,052,799,567 1,122,540,627 1,202,489,199 1,236,110,533 1,341,238,278 1,418,646,193 1,474,584,124 1,572,020,708 1,645,774,980 1,643,284,474 1,714,237,927 1,739,053,002 20,466,188,000 1,050,792,997 1,104,538,053 1,214,046,132 1,312,767,937 1,392,836,711 1,497,010,346 1,563,428,592 1,667,870,544 1,722,166,785 1,769,533,524 1,922,975,771 2,000,913,276 19,635,582,970 1,071,398,816 1,096,987,700 1,151,408,780 1,239,935,045 1,348,407,792 1,415,850,525 1,489,383,532 1,569,203,707 1,688,264,403 1,712,423,594 1,809,647,346 1,850,260,539 18,433,975,291 1,037,359,920 1,091,089,620 1,184,139,817 1,214,154,433 1,281,814,913 1,339,097,968 1,364,888,045 1,456,422,808 1,498,091,052 1,608,953,080 1,653,957,106 1,718,464,763 19,369,475,709 1,060,232,328 1,118,408,066 1,172,995,053 1,239,019,257 1,304,870,851 1,369,507,112 1,425,967,557 1,478,408,777 1,598,669,317 1,675,103,469 1,793,257,202 1,899,802,819 19,976,724,335 1,123,204,586 1,162,121,816 1,208,895,927 1,241,464,040 1,325,216,780 1,420,786,300 1,559,809,922 1,627,142,403 1,701,923,992 1,738,859,326 1,823,689,379 1,909,187,862 20,316,840,108 1,031,395,699 1,110,252,522 1,180,146,005 1,258,288,283 1,388,149,558 1,425,611,465 1,540,033,357 1,672,804,250 1,777,148,994 1,811,177,776 1,879,852,037 2,011,558,139 17,961,353,834 1,046,507,364 1,122,594,100 1,177,283,834 1,221,789,221 1,246,773,891 1,272,747,922 1,279,368,809 1,383,829,640 1,483,430,045 1,527,471,351 1,612,165,527 1,709,524,747 17,995,242,798 1,051,592,784 1,114,552,142 1,169,346,649 1,221,170,045 1,283,160,461 1,303,467,836 1,324,295,314 1,345,652,857 1,418,417,401 1,510,713,119 1,570,359,061 1,688,721,016 18,982,728,393 1,048,444,530 1,086,304,560 1,124,690,116 1,185,241,319 1,246,450,761 1,353,586,836 1,410,692,760 1,475,616,756 1,576,860,865 1,681,752,989 1,702,305,060 1,847,881,662 20,085,456,234 1,053,747,263 1,145,850,424 1,226,740,583 1,282,634,614 1,354,801,744 1,404,916,759 1,482,329,754 1,557,181,280 1,607,216,778 1,728,178,938 1,848,977,504 1,978,232,315 18,834,686,567 1,077,723,200 1,123,095,188 1,202,579,375 1,244,150,062 1,298,239,456 1,346,160,265 1,419,921,119 1,477,767,002 1,460,200,621 1,542,190,277 1,649,142,656 1,716,264,272 20,039,934,671 1,043,487,479 1,111,195,820 1,144,430,552 1,210,921,888 1,284,022,396 1,396,740,940 1,492,010,900 1,583,953,991 1,715,328,962 1,830,193,632 1,968,082,700 2,032,316,616 19,058,861,425 1,047,611,621 1,102,352,011 1,137,838,293 1,174,252,566 1,244,279,919 1,330,790,499 1,395,364,016 1,488,470,826 1,578,464,625 1,612,948,876 1,714,960,016 1,848,378,021 19,269,946,204 1,030,973,992 1,088,434,426 1,162,425,071 1,256,931,291 1,291,172,860 1,332,110,491 1,398,007,592 1,450,423,098 1,588,907,659 1,652,840,147 1,756,342,481 1,876,246,212 18,997,324,687 1,049,325,031 1,087,199,873 1,121,207,533 1,204,940,535 1,226,797,020 1,281,327,908 1,361,822,668 1,411,196,792 1,489,124,874 1,647,572,567 1,744,785,064 1,900,010,260 17,398,073,588 1,051,328,798 1,104,919,856 1,110,534,363 1,134,579,574 1,181,349,623 1,214,254,106 1,284,434,797 1,330,097,584 1,423,070,332 1,530,024,937 1,555,389,712 1,651,355,203 18,427,057,807 1,031,108,978 1,112,524,805 1,170,948,122 1,201,223,961 1,220,274,113 1,283,857,954 1,348,290,781 1,413,730,142 1,451,647,298 1,581,051,808 1,652,795,357 1,785,812,581 19,541,110,201 1,064,942,762 1,118,538,757 1,138,581,719 1,226,730,016 1,283,669,824 1,357,444,341 1,471,272,383 1,523,205,053 1,635,924,903 1,682,728,012 1,808,376,239 1,922,773,524 18,686,612,063 1,041,968,735 1,091,217,118 1,149,399,518 1,202,111,814 1,260,988,490 1,327,303,044 1,408,252,296 1,500,552,902 1,533,002,750 1,616,276,528 1,667,901,697 1,739,242,891 18,054,464,031 983,550,950 1,050,170,481 1,115,265,523 1,199,744,526 1,241,628,651 1,279,397,865 1,287,414,612 1,363,390,552 1,439,996,422 1,557,015,210 1,640,069,172 1,730,693,251 17,620,478,694 1,071,100,974 1,099,232,834 1,142,434,871 1,183,703,057 1,185,338,506 1,275,067,579 1,303,947,136 1,326,174,644 1,379,042,763 1,494,845,207 1,591,070,293 1,642,616,479 19,943,411,101 1,055,634,175 1,087,148,086 1,145,212,318 1,219,064,353 1,319,747,819 1,428,209,724 1,569,619,388 1,603,109,600 1,652,093,044 1,772,491,783 1,855,254,116 1,932,828,732 19,879,638,888 1,050,529,211 1,094,992,312 1,152,985,686 1,219,682,462 1,282,323,742 1,394,549,914 1,516,370,303 1,648,590,547 1,727,816,126 1,792,153,907 1,904,645,125 1,956,639,680 19,068,525,714 1,053,683,725 1,123,465,805 1,198,765,713 1,256,655,217 1,320,089,950 1,342,914,182 1,423,500,668 1,503,392,104 1,554,204,631 1,609,885,897 1,757,015,708 1,788,111,553 17,598,180,001 1,048,381,312 1,065,083,192 1,099,042,428 1,161,234,595 1,214,515,062 1,293,849,580 1,354,706,725 1,424,645,036 1,524,849,972 1,566,637,782 1,617,638,249 1,670,288,431

期望值：18,975,319,764 元＝18,975 百萬元標準差： 857,651,730 元＝ 858 百萬元

表 10 方案三現金流評估結果（續）

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

作者簡歷

姓名：林嘉正

籍貫：台灣省苗栗縣

出生日期：民國 72 年 5 月 2 日

通訊住址：苗栗縣竹南鎮照南里 10 鄰三泰街 74 號電話：（037）478272

學歷：國立新竹高級中學畢業

國立交通大學土木工程學系畢業

國立交通大學木工程學系營建管理組碩士班畢業

在文檔中高速公路拓寬方案投資評估與決策分析 (頁 64-81)

第五章 實證案例分析

6.2 後續研究之建議

參考文獻

附錄一 推導艾多輔助定理

附錄二 高速公路興建與拓寬之成本比較

附錄三 試擬案例數值資料

作者簡歷

第五章實證案例分析

附錄一推導艾多輔助定理

附錄二高速公路興建與拓寬之成本比較

附錄三試擬案例數值資料