第五章 結論與建議
第三節 後續研究建議
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第三節 後續研究建議
由於國內缺乏房屋貸款之完整資料庫，本研究缺乏相關完整資料，僅能透過 國內某銀行，自大台北地區各分處分行分別隨機取得，並非母體之抽樣結果，可 能產生一定之選樣誤差。建議後續研究取得較為完整之房屋貸款資料樣本以估計 房屋貸款違約因素以及房屋貸款保證保險費率分析。
因本研究資料結構與資料筆數不足之問題，以傳統保險費率計算費率時，在 推估違約損失金額機率分配上與實際情況不符，故估算出總損失數據與研究現有 損失額具明顯差距，無法適用於該傳統結構之計算，因此建議後續研究改善資料 結構與資料筆數不足問題，進一步比較傳統保險費率結構與新興費率結構之差異 與優劣。
房屋貸款違約因素分析中，估計貸款成數邊際效果，除以 Logistic 回歸分析 其非線性邊際機率外，可另加入非線性之次方或交乘項，以比較貸款成數對違約 之不同影響變動。另於分析違約因素之總體經濟變數時，可選擇不同之違約時點，
觀察是否有高點買低點賣，產生較高之違約情形。
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