李等 (2011) 研究中國新疆維吾爾自治區昌吉州的蝗蟲災害與氣候因子的相互關係，指 出溫度與降雨是影響昌吉州蝗蟲發生之關鍵因子，並提出 3 個結論：(1) 高溫與乾旱為蝗 蟲大量發生的必要條件；(2) 蝗蟲災害發生的關鍵時段及氣候因子，為當年 5-7 月的氣溫、
降雨量及前一年 11-12 月的氣溫，持續暖冬與冬季多雪有利蝗卵越冬；春季若為乾暖氣候，
則有利蝗卵孵化與蝗蝻發育，促使種群數量上升；前一年夏季和當年溫暖少雨，對蝗蟲發 育有利；(3) 蝗蟲災害是多種因素聯合作用的結果，除氣候因素之外，尚需綜合考量其他因 素
以上可知，氣候變遷對昆蟲的影響，是由環境的生物因子與非生物因子共同作用的結 果，這當中還需考量昆蟲本身的遺傳特性，例如昆蟲滯育 (diapause) 是由遺傳與環境 (如 溫度、濕度、光週期與食物等) 共同作用導致昆蟲生長發育或繁殖中止的現象 (涂等，
2009) 因此，當吾人探討溫度提高 2℃對作物或作物有害生物到底會產生什麼影響的同時，
即便以普遍運用的 Climex 這類軟體預測溫度變化對昆蟲發育與分布的影響，所獲答案仍 與實際狀況存有明顯差異 因此，對於氣候變遷對農業昆蟲可能影響的研究方法，應考量 多因子分析不易的情況下，如何採用兼顧理論 (單因子作用) 與現況 (多因子交互作用) 相 互校正的研究方法，此部分可參考陳及馬 (2010) 與石等 (2011) 簡介之數種研究方法
結 語
氣候暖化主要肇因於溫室氣體 (greenhouse gas) 於大氣濃度大幅增加所致 雖然 全球氣候變遷的成因尚待確認，部份學者認為是由工業革命以來溫室氣體增加所致，
部份學者則認為是地球自身週期變化的結果，但不可否認的事實是全球表面均溫的確
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鄭清煥 1998 第五章 全球氣候變遷對台灣地區蟲害發生影響及因應對策 第 73-85
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