研究限制與未來研究方向

一、 研究限制

〈一〉 事件期間之樣本範圍受限

於本研究中，僅能從實證結果推論管理階層在稅率調降前一年度（98 年 度）向下管理盈餘，而礙於99 年度以及往後年度之資料尚無法取得，因 此無法推論管理階層確實將98 年的盈餘遞延到往後年度。

〈二〉 Modified Jones Model 的隱含假設

為了估計非裁量性應計數，使用Modified Jones Model 時，必須先以估計 期間之資料，利用迴歸分析求出迴歸係數。再利用此迴歸式估計測試期 間之非裁量性應計數。所以隱含假設是估計期間的公司年度是沒有盈餘 管理的；換句話說，估計期間的總應計數（或總流動應計數）不包含裁 量性應計數。此隱含假設不合理。

〈三〉 變數之選用

管理盈餘的動機和誘因十分複雜，至今仍未有研究者能充分辨認出較全 面之關鍵因素，所以選用變數時，可能會有無關之變數納入模型或是遺 漏變數未納入模型，導致型一和型二錯誤。

〈四〉 資料之瑕疵

本研究之主要資料來自於台灣經濟新報文化事業股份有限公司之資料 庫，屬於次級資料，因此無法避免其中可能已存在之人為疏失。

〈五〉 樣本的選擇不符合產業分布現況

51

受限於每家公司至少要有十年期以上之估計期間，本研究只能使用在民 國 86 年前便已上市、上櫃之公司為樣本，而經 Kolmogorov-Smirnov 檢 定 ， 將 樣 本 公 司 的 產 業 分 布 和 現 有 公 司 的 產 業 分 布 作 比 較 ， 得 到 D=0.370287，大於臨界值D _{. ,} 0.06，因此本研究樣本無法代表現 有公司之產業分布。所以，在做統計推論時，應注意此限制。

二、 未來研究方向

〈一〉 本研究並未探討金融產業和其他產業，未來研究者可依其特殊之營業特 性和法令規範去設計模型，檢驗其有無管理盈餘之行為，若有，其可能 原因為何。如此一來，將能使盈餘管理和稅率調降之研究角度更豐富。

〈二〉 本研究以Modified Jones Model 求算裁量性流動應計數，可能因為有遺 漏變數，或加入無關變數，導致型一或型二錯誤的產生。未來研究者若 能辨認出有解釋能力的變數，可能對盈餘管理的原因會有更多瞭解。此 外，未來研究者亦可思考如何精進估計非裁量性應計數的模型。

52

Burgstahler, D. and M. Eames (2006). "Management of earnings and analysts' forecasts to achieve zero and small positive earnings surprises." Journal of Business Finance & Accounting 33(5 6): 633-652.

Cahan, S. F. (1992). "The effect of antitrust investigations on discretionary accruals:

A refined test of the political-cost hypothesis." The Accounting Review

67(1): 77-95.

Chung, D. Y. (1998). "Income management in response to corporate tax rate reductions: Canadian evidence." International Tax Journal 24: 28.

DeAngelo, L. E. (1986). "Accounting numbers as market valuation substitutes: A study of management buyouts of public stockholders." The Accounting Review 61(3): 400-420.

Dechow, P. M., R. G. Sloan, et al. (1995). "Detecting earnings management." The Accounting Review 70(2): 193-225.

DeFond, M. and J. Jiambalvo (1994). "Debt covenant effects and the manipulation of accruals." Journal of Accounting and Economics 17(1): 145-176.

Dichev, I. D. and D. J. Skinner (2002). "Large-sample evidence on the debt covenant hypothesis." Journal of Accounting Research 40(4): 1091-1123.

Duke, J. C. and H. G. Hunt III (1990). "An empirical examination of debt covenant restrictions and accounting-related debt proxies." Journal of Accounting and Economics 12(1-3): 45-63.

Guenther, D. A. (1994). "Earnings management in response to corporate tax rate changes: Evidence from the 1986 Tax Reform Act." The Accounting Review 69(1): 230-243.

Guidry, F., A. J. Leone, et al. (1999). "Earnings-based bonus plans and earnings management by business-unit managers." Journal of Accounting and Economics 26(1-3): 113-142.

Gupta, S. and K. Newberry (1997). "Determinants of the variability in corporate effective tax rates: Evidence from longitudinal data." Journal of accounting and public policy 16(1): 1-34.

Healy, P. M. (1985). "The effect of bonus schemes on accounting decisions* 1."

53

Journal of Accounting and Economics 7(1-3): 85-107.

Healy, P. M. and J. M. Wahlen (1999). "A review of the earnings management literature and its implications for standard setting." Accounting Horizons

13(4): 365-384.

Holthausen, R. W., D. F. Larcker, et al. (1995). "Annual bonus schemes and the manipulation of earnings* 1." Journal of Accounting and Economics 19(1):

29-74.

Hunt, H. G. (1985). "Potential determinants of corporate inventory accounting decisions." Journal of Accounting Research 23(2): 448-467.

Jones, J. J. (1991). "Earnings management during import relief investigations."

Journal of Accounting Research 29(2): 193-228.

Kaplan, R. S. (1985). "Evidence on the effect of bonus schemes on accounting procedure and accrual decisions." Journal of Accounting and Economics

7(1-3): 109-113.

Kasznik, R. (1999). "On the association between voluntary disclosure and earnings management." Journal of Accounting Research 37(1): 57-81.

Lin, S., T. H. Lin, et al. (2004). "Earnings management in Taiwan¡¦s imputation tax system."

Liu, C. C., S. Lin, et al. (2001). "Factors Influencing Corporate Effective Tax Rates in Taiwan."

Lopez, T., P. Regier, et al. (1998). "Identifying tax-induced earnings management around TRA 86 as a function of prior tax-aggressive behavior." Journal of the American Taxation Association 20(2): 37¡V56.

Manzon, G. (1992). "Earnings management of firms subject to the alternative minimum tax." Journal of the American Taxation Association 14(2):

88¡V111.

McNichols, M. F. (2000). "Research design issues in earnings management studies." Journal of accounting and public policy 19(4-5): 313-345.

Moyer, S. E. (1990). "Capital adequacy ratio regulations and accounting choices in commercial banks." Journal of Accounting and Economics 13(2): 123-154.

Niehaus, G. R. (1989). "Ownership structure and inventory method choice." The Accounting Review 64(2): 269-284.

Payne, J. L. and S. W. G. Robb (2000). "Earnings management: The effect of ex ante earnings expectations." Journal of Accounting Auditing and Finance

15(4): 371-392.

Perry, S. E. and T. H. Williams (1994). "Earnings management preceding management buyout offers." Journal of Accounting and Economics 18(2):

157-179.

54

Scholes, M. S., G. P. Wilson, et al. (1992). Firms' responses to anticipated reductions in tax rates: The Tax Reform Act of 1986, National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA.

Scott, W. R. S. W. R. (2009). "Financial Accounting Theory."

Siegfried, J. J. (1972). "The relationship between economic structure and the effect of political influence: Empirical evidence from the federal corporation income tax program." Unpublished Ph. D. Dissertation, University of Wisconsin.

Teoh, S. H., I. Welch, et al. (1998). "Earnings management and the underperformance of seasoned equity offerings." Journal of Financial Economics 50(1): 63-100.

Watts, R. and J. Zimmerman (1986). "Positive theory of accounting." Englewood Cliffs, NY: Prentice-Hall.

WB. (2010). “2011 Doing Business Report.”