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第三章 臺灣本島電力系統偶發事故分析

3.5 模擬結果

3.5.1 穩態安全模擬

穩態安全模擬係透過模擬以了解系統在沒有發生故障時的電力潮流是否符合 安全裕度。

(1)穩態安全裕度

臺電輸電系統規劃準則中對於穩態安全裕度的規定分成以下兩部分:

(A) 輸電線及變壓器超載準則

民國 87 年發布的輸電系統規劃準則第十一條規定 345KV、161KV 及 69KV

38

架空輸電線超載準則:

系統正常時,架空輸電線不得超載,事故時允許超過正常額定電流 10%以內 運轉。

第十八條則規定變壓器超載準則:

1. 超高壓變壓器正常時不得超載,而一組變壓器故障,緊急時支援供電期間 最多允許超載10%以內,經 161KV 連絡線支援供電後,亦不得超載。

2. 一次變電所、一次配電變電所及二次變電所變壓器正常運轉時不得超 載,而一組變壓器故障時得由所內健全變壓器超載 25%以內運轉,短時 間內,將超載量改由鄰近變電所轉供而維持正常供電。

3. 上述超載情況均以不犧牲設備壽命為原則。

(B) 系統電壓限制範圍

民國87 年發布的輸電系統規劃準則第二十二條規定:正常時系統電壓應保持 在0.95-1.03pu 之間,事故後之穩態情況下,發電機組及變電所電壓變化允許 範圍在0.9pu 到 1.05pu 之間。但以不發生電壓崩潰為原則。

以上在穩態安全裕度的規劃準則相關條文中並無對系統正常、事故等字眼有 明確定義,在民國94 年的修訂版本中才開始作釐清[27]。

(2)穩態安全模擬結果

穩態安全分析總共模擬了52 種事故。對於任何一個案例的模擬結果,如果有 以下三種情形的任一種則是不安全的案例,分別是電力潮流的解不能收斂、線路 過載及匯流排電壓超出限制。

(A)電力潮流的解是否收斂

三種負載的電力潮流解收斂狀態如表 3.12~表 3.14 所示。該表中的案例編號對 應於表 3.6。表 3.12~表 3.14 中可發現許多空格,表 3.6 中也顯示有些案例並非在 所有幹線潮流狀態下皆成立。這些不考慮的案例在模擬結果當中即顯示空格。

39

表3.12 系統重載時電力潮流解收斂狀態統計

案例編號 電力潮流解收斂狀態

幹線潮流(弱) 幹線潮流(中) 幹線潮流(強)

1 solved solved unsolved 2 solved unsolved unsolved 3 solved unsolved unsolved 4 solved solved unsolved 5 solved unsolved unsolved 6 unsolved unsolved unsolved 7 solved unsolved unsolved 8 unsolved unsolved unsolved 9 solved unsolved unsolved

10 unsolved unsolved

40

表 3.13 系統中載時電力潮流解收斂狀態統計

案例編號 電力潮流解收斂狀態

幹線潮流(弱) 幹線潮流(中) 幹線潮流(強)

1 solved solved solved

2 solved solved unsolved 3 solved solved unsolved

4 solved solved solved

5 solved solved solved

6 unsolved unsolved unsolved 7 solved solved unsolved 8 solved solved unsolved 9 solved solved unsolved

10 unsolved unsolved

41

4 unsolved unsolved unsolved 5 unsolved unsolved solved 6 unsolved unsolved unsolved

7 solved solved solved

42

1 Powerflow unsolved 1851-

7648-1 119 3 No thermal violation 2 Powerflow unsolved Powerflow unsolved No thermal violation 3 Powerflow unsolved Powerflow unsolved No thermal violation 4 Powerflow unsolved 4117-

7511-1

132.1 2 4117- 7511-1

131.4 2 5 Powerflow unsolved Powerflow unsolved No thermal violation

7 Powerflow unsolved Powerflow unsolved No thermal violation 9 Powerflow unsolved Powerflow unsolved No thermal violation 12 Powerflow unsolved 2100- 24 No thermal violation 2151-

2251-W

124.5 1 27 Powerflow unsolved No thermal violation

28 Powerflow unsolved No thermal violation

29 1851-

7648-1 119.3 3 No thermal violation

30 1851-

7648-1

119.0 3 No thermal violation 31 No thermal violation No thermal violation 32 No thermal violation No thermal violation 35 Powerflow unsolved 4117- 38 No thermal violation No thermal violation

39 4117-

7511-1 132.1 2 4117-

7511-1 131.4 2 40 No thermal violation No thermal violation

41 Powerflow unsolved No thermal violation 42 Powerflow unsolved No thermal violation

47 1851-

7648-1 132.9 5 48 No thermal violation

50 No thermal violation 51 No thermal violation 52 No thermal violation

43

2 Powerflow unsolved No thermal violation No thermal violation 3 Powerflow unsolved No thermal violation No thermal violation

4 4117-7511-1 147 5 4117-7511-1 148.2 4 4117-7511-1 147.8 4 5 1200-2851-1 113.9 1 No thermal violation No thermal violation

7 Powerflow unsolved No thermal violation No thermal violation 8 Powerflow unsolved No thermal violation No thermal violation 9 Powerflow unsolved No thermal violation No thermal violation 11 No thermal violation No thermal violation 12 2100-2660-M 112.8 1 No thermal violation 13 2100-2650-S 113.6 1 No thermal violation

14 1851-7648-1 176.6 6 1851-7648-1 144.7 5 15 1851-7648-1 150.3 5 1851-7648-1 130 3 16 No thermal violation No thermal violation

17 No thermal violation No thermal violation 18 No thermal violation No thermal violation

20 1090-2660-3 130.9 1 1090-2660-3 122.8 1 21 2650-2670-1 128.1 1 2650-2670-1 120.6 1 22 No thermal violation No thermal violation

23 4117-7511-1 148.3 4 4117-7511-1 147.8 4 24 2151-2251-W 138.5 1 2151-2251-W 142 1 25 Powerflow unsolved Powerflow unsolved

26 2100-2650-S 111.6 1 No thermal violation 27 No thermal violation No thermal violation 28 No thermal violation No thermal violation 29 1851-7648-1 114.4 1 No thermal violation 30 1851-7648-1 114.4 1 No thermal violation 31 No thermal violation No thermal violation 32 No thermal violation No thermal violation 33 No thermal violation No thermal violation

35 4117-7511-1 151.2 8 4117-7511-1 148.5 4 36 4117-7511-1 148.2 4 4117-7511-1 147.8 4 37 4117-7511-1 148.3 4 4117-7511-1 147.8 4 38 No thermal violation No thermal violation

39 4117-7511-1 148.3 4 4117-7511-1 147.8 4 40 No thermal violation No thermal violation

41 No thermal violation No thermal violation 42 No thermal violation No thermal violation

43 No thermal violation

47 1851-7648-1 126.4 3

48 No thermal violation

49 No thermal violation

50 No thermal violation

51 No thermal violation

52 No thermal violation

44

1 No thermal violation No thermal violation No thermal violation 2 No thermal violation No thermal violation No thermal violation 3 No thermal violation No thermal violation No thermal violation 5 No thermal violation Powerflow unsolved Powerflow unsolved 7 No thermal violation No thermal violation No thermal violation 8 No thermal violation No thermal violation No thermal violation 9 No thermal violation No thermal violation No thermal violation 11 No thermal violation No thermal violation 12 No thermal violation No thermal violation 13 No thermal violation No thermal violation 14 No thermal violation No thermal violation 15 No thermal violation No thermal violation 16 No thermal violation No thermal violation 17 3361-4907

-1&2 117.3 4 3361-4907

-1&2 122.6 4 18 No thermal violation No thermal violation

19 No thermal violation No thermal violation 20 No thermal violation 1090-2660-3 110.2 1 21 No thermal violation No thermal violation 22 No thermal violation No thermal violation 24

2151-2251-W

134.2 1 2151-2251-W 130.2 1 25 No thermal violation No thermal violation 26 No thermal violation No thermal violation 27 Powerflow unsolved Powerflow unsolved 28 No thermal violation No thermal violation 29 No thermal violation No thermal violation 30 No thermal violation No thermal violation 31 No thermal violation No thermal violation 32 No thermal violation No thermal violation 33 No thermal violation No thermal violation 34 No thermal violation No thermal violation 38 No thermal violation No thermal violation 40 No thermal violation No thermal violation 43 No thermal violation 44 No thermal violation 45 No thermal violation 46 No thermal violation 47 No thermal violation 48 No thermal violation 49 No thermal violation 50 No thermal violation 51 No thermal violation 52 No thermal violation

45

1 Powerflow unsolved No violations No violations 2 Powerflow unsolved Powerflow unsolved No violations

3 Powerflow unsolved Powerflow unsolved No violations

4 Powerflow unsolved No violations No violations 5 Powerflow unsolved Powerflow unsolved No violations

7 Powerflow unsolved Powerflow unsolved No violations 9 Powerflow unsolved Powerflow unsolved No violations 12 Powerflow unsolved 5913 144.43

(0.8971)

3 13 Powerflow unsolved 5913 144.63

(0.8983)

3 14 Powerflow unsolved No violations

15 Powerflow unsolved No violations 20 No violations No violations 21 No violations No violations 23 No violations No violations 24 No violations No violations 27 Powerflow unsolved No violations 28 Powerflow unsolved No violations 29 No violations No violations 30 No violations No violations 31 No violations No violations 32 No violations No violations 35 Powerflow unsolved No violations 36 No violations No violations 37 No violations No violations 38 1500 385.59

(1.1177)

17 9410 409.05

(1.1857)

23 39 No violations No violations

40 No violations No violations 41 Powerflow unsolved No violations 42 Powerflow unsolved No violations

47 No violations

46

1 No violations No violations No violations

2 Powerflow unsolved No violations No violations 3 Powerflow unsolved No violations No violations 4 No violations No violations No violations

5 No violations No violations No violations

7 Powerflow unsolved No violations No violations 8 Powerflow unsolved 821 12.293

(0.8908) 2 No violations 9 Powerflow unsolved Powerflow unsolved No violations

10 Powerflow unsolved No violations

11 821 12.293

(0.8908)

2 No violations 12 No violations No violations

13 No violations No violations 14 No violations No violations 15 No violations No violations 16 No violations No violations 17 No violations No violations 18 No violations No violations 20 No violations No violations 21 No violations No violations 22 No violations No violations 23 No violations No violations 24 No violations No violations

26 821 11.597

(0.8404)

42 No violations 27 No violations No violations

28 No violations No violations 29 No violations No violations 30 No violations No violations 31 No violations No violations 32 No violations No violations

33 821 12.293 36 No violations No violations

37 No violations No violations

38 1500 370.33

(1.0734) 11 1500 379.79 (1.1008) 16 39 No violations No violations 40 No violations No violations 41 No violations No violations 42 No violations No violations

43 No violations

47

1 No violations No violations No violations 2 No violations No violations No violations 3 No violations No violations No violations

5 No violations Powerflow unsolved Powerflow unsolved 7 No violations No violations No violations

8 No violations No violations No violations 9 No violations No violations No violations 11 No violations No violations 12 No violations No violations 13 No violations No violations 14 No violations No violations 15 No violations No violations 16 No violations No violations

17 9101、

18 No violations No violations 19 No violations No violations 20 No violations No violations 21 No violations No violations 22 No violations No violations 24 No violations No violations 25 No violations No violations 26 No violations No violations 28 No violations No violations 29 No violations No violations 30 No violations No violations 31 No violations No violations 32 No violations No violations 33 No violations No violations 34 No violations No violations 38 No violations No violations 40 No violations No violations

43 No violations

48

表3.15~表 3.20 中所跳過的事故編號是在三種幹線潮流下的電力潮流都無法收 斂的情形;或者是在三種幹線潮流下,除了某潮流下電力潮流無法收斂外其餘潮 流皆是不考慮的情形。