本研究利用1999至2016年華人家庭動態資料建立了父母世代所得、子女世代 所得及其他相關變數,並以普通最小平方法進行迴歸分析,估計臺灣的代間所得 流動性。首先,我們先估計不同類型的家長世代所得與子女世代所得間的彈性,
父親與兒子的成對樣本估計值為0.243,父親與女兒的估計值則為0.288,若以父 親或母親所得作為解釋變數,其對兒子所得的彈性估計值比起女兒低,但若使用 主要所得及家庭總所得則有相反的結果。接著我們討論在不同父親所得的平均年 數時,其對子女世代所得的影響。當平均年數為6至9年時,對兒子的代間所得彈 性估計值自0.243增加至0.550,在女兒及總子女樣本中皆有明顯的增加,且皆有 統計上的顯著意義。但如果我們將平均年數調整為10年以上,則係數明顯地降低 且不顯著。最後,我們討論平均所得年數為6至9年間時,父親所得及其他變數對 子女世代所得的影響,在加入子女教育程度及子女平均年齡後,代間所得彈性估 計值有明顯的下降,且除了總子女樣本外皆呈現統計上不顯著。因此在控制其他 變數下,臺灣的代間所得彈性約為0.30,與先前亦使用華人家庭動態資料庫且利 用相同方法的文獻相比,本研究的估計值較高,其原因可能為樣本中子女及父母 世代年齡的範圍不同。
如何以暫時性所得去衡量恆常所得在估計代間所得彈性的過程中是很重要 的,而目前華人家庭動態資料庫的受訪者中最長的訪問期間雖為16年,但其樣本 的流失累積率約為50%,又每年流失的受訪者不固定,因此在整個樣本中完整追 蹤資料是較少的,進而使得代間所得彈性的估計值會有低估的可能性。而本研究 僅能以有限的資料期間及資料數量得到前述的IGE估計值,未來若能使用長期且 較穩定的資料,且以更為進階的方法去衡量臺灣的世代間所得流動情形,必能較 精準地估計出臺灣真實的代間所得彈性。
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