1. 生長季早期始花的榛子，其 FFD 距平序列的趨勢呼應暖化，但是在生長季 晚期始花的帚石楠，其 FFD 距平序列的趨勢不呼應暖化，顯示暖化對不同 物種的始花物候有不同的影響。
2. 榛子的 FFD 距平序列和 JFM Tmax 距平序列與 JFM NAOGS分別呈負相關 與正相關，顯示大尺度的氣候概況可反映在小尺度的溫度與物候上。
3. 榛子 FFD 與 JFM Tmax 兩距平序列的趨勢雖相呼應，但是榛子 FFD 距平 序列的趨勢顯著提早的時間早於 JFM Tmax 距平序列的趨勢顯著升高的時 間。這可能和物種特性、資料的性質與開花的機制有關。
4. 暖化若持續，除了位於最高海拔的測站 DE3824 的 FFD 可能會延後，其餘 測站的 FFD 可能會持續提前。
5. EEMD 與 MEB 方法能分別得到物候與溫度資料的趨勢和信賴區間，適合 分析非平穩與非線性的資料，而藉由差分估計趨勢的速度與加速度讓我們 瞭解趨勢未來可能的演變方向，這些方法適宜分析物候資料。
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附錄一
榛子 FFD 距平序列和不同溫度類型的場域相關性分析
各測站與不同溫度類型的場域相關性分析結果以一張圖內嵌四小圖呈現，小 圖的左上方標示分析的溫度類型：Tmean 代表月均日溫、Tmax 代表月均最高日溫、
JF 代表平均一至二月、JFM 代表平均一至三月而 FM 代表平均二至三月。右側的 量尺代表 FFD 距平序列和去除線性趨勢後的溫度之相關性，並非所有測站的尺度 都相同。測站位置以紅點表之。
圖 1、測站 DE2294 的場域相關性分析
JF Tmax 是與此測站的 FFD 距平序列最相關的溫度類型(左下)
圖 2、測站 DE4420 的場域相關性分析
JFM Tmean 是與此測站的 FFD 距平序列最相關的溫度類型(右上)
圖 3、測站 DE4054 的場域相關性分析
JFM Tmax 是與此測站的 FFD 距平序列最相關的溫度類型(右下)
圖 4、測站 DE4256 的場域相關性分析
JF Tmean 與 JF Tmax 皆與此測站的 FFD 距平序列相關(分別為左上與左下的小圖)
圖 5、測站 DE4239 的場域相關性分析
JF Tmax 與 JFM Tmean 皆與此測站的 FFD 距平序列相關(分別為左下與右上的小 圖)
圖 6、測站 DE3984 的場域相關性分析
JFM Tmean 是與此測站的 FFD 距平序列最相關的溫度類型(右上)
圖 7、測站 DE3866 的場域相關性分析
JFM Tmean 與 JFM Tmax 皆與此測站的 FFD 距平序列相關(分別為右上與右下的小 圖)
圖 8、測站 DE3744 的場域相關性分析
JFM Tmean 與 JFM Tmax 皆與此測站的 FFD 距平序列相關(分別為右上與右下的小 圖)
圖 9、測站 DE3824 的場域相關性分析
FM Tmax 是與此測站的 FFD 距平序列最相關的溫度類型(左下)
圖 10、測站 DE4495 的場域相關性分析
JFM Tmax 是與此測站的 FFD 距平序列最相關的溫度類型(右下)
圖 11、全測站的場域相關性分析
JFM Tmean 是與此區域的 FFD 距平序列最相關的溫度類型(右上)
帚石楠 FFD 距平序列和不同溫度類型的場域相關性分析
本研究先尋找與各測站的 FFD 距平序列最相關的溫度類型，再以與全測站 FFD 距 平序列呈最相關的 AMJ Tmean 和始花前一個月的溫度(即七月的溫度)，檢測增加 這些月份的溫度是否提高各測站 FFD 距平序列與各溫度類型的相關性。每一張圖 的的量尺刻度並不相同。小圖的左上方標示分析的溫度類型：Tmean 代表月平均 日溫、Tmax 代表月均最高日溫、June 為六月、July 為七月、May-June 代表平均五 至六月、June-July 代表平均六至七月、AMJ 代表平均四至六月、MJJA 代表平均 五至八月、AMJJA 代表平均四至八月。測站位置以紅點表之。另外，測站 DE3876 的 FFD 距平序列並不與任何溫度類型相關。
圖 1、測站 DE2075 的場域相關性分析
June Tmean 是與此測站的 FFD 距平序列最相關的溫度類型(中上)
圖 2、測站 DE2853 的場域相關性分析
MJJA Tmean 是與此測站的 FFD 距平序列最相關的溫度類型(左上)
圖 3、測站 DE3744 的場域相關性分析
AMJ Tmean 是與此測站的 FFD 距平序列最相關的溫度類型(左上)