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第五章 結論
本章整理本文之實證發現，並說明政策對國內生產毛額影響，和彙整財政政 策對國內生產毛額影響，貨幣政策對國內生產毛額和貿易政策對國內生產毛額影 響。
第 5.1 節 結論
本研究有兩個目的，第一、在小型開放經濟體系中，政府推動不同政策下，
何種政策長期效果較強。第二、目前常用縮減式迴歸來進行估計，探討不同政策 下，其對產出影響。此外文獻回顧中財政政策與貨幣政策的有效性比較，36貨幣 政策為強而有效的政策，而在台灣貨幣政策有效性是否優於財政政策?
本文以 VECM 為主要模型詮釋背後之經濟意義，37本文在內容中分成兩段不 同期間來配飾模型，38並彙整政策對產出彈性效果，詳見下表 5.1。本文可以從表 中知道，金融海嘯前三者政策皆為正向的經濟影響，而且財政政策優於貨幣政策，
而金融海嘯後財政政策為負向的影響，但是貨幣和貿易政策卻是正向的經濟影響，
此外貨幣政策的政策有效性卻明顯優於財政政策。
36本文在這裡文獻大多以美國為主。
37 本文以 VECM 為主要模型，並不與本文題目 St.Louis 模型之應用相違背，因為本文 VECM 主 要採用 St.Louis 模型之政策變數，只不過是 VECM 模型為最新的估計方法，所以採用此方法估 計之。
38在估計期間 (1996 年第 1 季到 2014 年第 4 季) 內，在 2008 年第 3 季發生結構性改變。本文採 用方惠蓉 (2002) 將結構性改變以分段處理之，以利於分析結果，
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表 5.1 政策對國內生產毛額之彈性 (單位) 金融海嘯前
(1996Q1-2008Q2)
金融海嘯後
(2008Q3-2014Q4) 財政政策
對國內生產毛額影響 0.794 -1.202
貨幣政策
對國內生產毛額影響 0.188 0.691
貿易政策
對國內生產毛額影響 0.206 0.279
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Response of LOG(Y) to LOG(GP5)
-.02
Response of LOG(Y) to LOG(M2)
-.02
Response of LOG(Y) to LOG(EX3)
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Response of LOG(Y) to LOG(GP5)
-.010
Response of LOG(Y) to LOG(M2)
-.010
Response of LOG(Y) to LOG(EX3)
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𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑡 Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
𝐺𝑡 3.710 0.597 6.21 0.000
Adj R-squared = 0.1510
註 : (1) 被解釋變數為國內生產毛額 (GDP)。
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(3) 樣本數為 50 個 (1996Q1-2008Q2)，季資料。
資料來源 : (1) 財政政策變數為政府消費支出、與固定資本形成 (包含營建工 程、運輸工具、機器及設備、與智慧財產) 取自主計總處統 計資料庫-國民所得及經濟成長統計資料庫。
(2) 貿易政策變數為商品及服務輸出取自主計總處統計資料庫-國 民所得及經濟成長統計資料庫。
(3) 貨幣總計數 (𝑀2) 取自中央銀行金融統計月報。
(4) 國內生產毛額 (GDP) 取自主計總處統計資料庫。
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𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑡 Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
𝐺𝑡 -1.461 0.646 -2.26 0.027
Adj R-squared = 0.6229
註 : (1) 被解釋變數為國內生產毛額 (GDP)。
(2) 解釋變數為財政政策變數、貨幣政策變數、與貿易政策變數。
其中，財政政策變數為政府消費支出、與固定資本形成(包含 營建工程、運輸工具、機器及設備、與智慧財產)。
貨幣政策變數為貨幣總計數 (𝑀2)。
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貿易政策變數為商品及服務輸出。
(3) 樣本數為 26 個 (2008Q3-2014Q4)，季資料。
資料來源 : (1) 財政政策變數為政府消費支出、與固定資本形成 (包含營建工 程、運輸工具、機器及設備、與智慧財產) 取自主計總處統 計資料庫-國民所得及經濟成長統計資料庫。
(2) 貿易政策變數為商品及服務輸出取自主計總處統計資料庫-國 民所得及經濟成長統計資料庫。
(3) 貨幣總計數 (𝑀2) 取自中央銀行金融統計月報。
(4) 國內生產毛額 (GDP) 取自主計總處統計資料庫。