• 沒有找到結果。

本研究利用臺灣疾病管制署 1999 年至 2006 年類流感人數資料定義流感高低峰期,並結合接觸問 卷調查國中學童於不同期間、地區與時間之情境下其接觸型態差異,將結果以描述性資料呈現,研究 結果與未來建議歸納為以下五點,以作為日後模擬國中學童傳染病動態模擬研究之參考,提供未來研 究上能有更完善之方向。

1. 本研究臺中市崇倫國中的問卷回應率其流感高低峰期間分別為 49.7%與 44.4%﹔宜蘭縣順安國中則 分別為 65.2%及 66.3%,可於研究前加強與各班導師之間的聯結,請各班導師強力宣導其研究內容,

並於研究前後發放回饋小禮物;對於加強問卷認知可於事前錄製完整之影片,播放時可同時講解加 深學童印象,增加其準確性、趣味性且可縮短問卷講解之時間,延長提問時間。

2. 受試者接觸變項與總接觸次數是有影響的。未來資料分析能詳細探討其受試者個人變項與接觸者變 項之間的差異,其結果更能說明各接觸變項之間與接觸型態之關係。另外,可於接觸變項間增設「接 觸對象是否就讀同所學校」之選項,更能確實了解其校園內接觸型態。Brankston 等(2007)將呼吸道 傳染途徑分為四種,分別為空氣傳染、飛沫傳染、直接傳染及媒介傳染,本研究其接觸定義為二,

其接觸種類僅限於記錄對話接觸及身體接觸,無法量化其他傳輸途徑(如門把上的媒介物或未涉及 對話或身體接觸的傳染),故建議可增設其他接觸定義,以增加資料使用度。

3. 受試者填寫問卷時僅記錄當日的天氣狀況,無法準確記錄全天的天氣狀況,日後可於接觸記錄表中 增設接觸時的天氣變化,增加天氣資料記錄準確性。

4. 1999 年至 2006 年類流感人數分析結果流感高峰期為 1 至 3 月及 12 月;流感低峰期為 7 月至 10 月。

日後可以疾病管制署最新流感案例數資料分析近年來之流感高低峰期,增加研究期間之準確性。流 感高低峰期間其接觸次數均為高峰期高於低峰期接觸次數,臺中市高低峰期總接觸次數分別為 21.3

次與 17.0 次;宜蘭縣為 14.7 次與 13.9 次,其總接觸次數均未達統計上之顯著。

5. 臺中市崇倫國中接觸次數均高於宜蘭縣順安國中,分別為 17.7 次與 13.7 次,兩者總接觸次數達統 計上顯著,其中又以接觸年齡層 0–19 歲與接觸地點為學校,分析結果達統計上顯著。未來可於無 研究負擔下,增加其樣本數外,可依臺灣東西南北四區塊各選取其研究場所,對於探討地區差異之 接觸型態資料更能具代表性,且學校選擇依規模大小較相似之學校為主,如學校規模的大小、班級 數、每班學生人數及學校位置等,故日後可選擇針對學制及學校型態相近的學校做進一步比較,以 避免選樣上之偏差。

6. 平日總接觸次數高於假日且結果達統計上顯著,可知平假日接觸次數有明顯差異,平假日接觸次數 間的差異,可說明假日能有效降低接觸次數。除量化其接觸型態外,未來亦可將其接觸次數推估其 傳染參數,將其結果運用傳染病動態模式模擬學校上課與非上課之傳染病動態,結合學校停課概 念,以做為學校停課時的參考依據。

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