從理論剖析與實證研究的結果顯示，本研究所建構的水文模式可以有效模擬小集水區
的水文歷線、洪峰時間、洪峰流量，與地表下逕流，提供地表水深與土體飽和度隨時間變 化的空間分佈。但是由於各參數與土地利用之關係尚未釐清，仍僅能以全區均質的方式進 行模擬，而且當集水區面積增大時，為將模擬時間控制在合理的範圍內，必須降低地形的 空間解析度，加上降雨資料空間解析度的不足，使得模擬準確度大幅降低。就小集水區而 言，或許可以達到不錯的預測效果，但是當面積加大時空間變異也跟著增大，再以全區共 用參數去模擬流量可能就不盡理想，雖能有效地模擬出主要的洪峰型態與大致的時間，但 是流量變動的誤差可能致使其實際利用價值降低。未來有關的研究應該仍以小集水區較為 可行，聚焦在各類土地利用與水文參數之間關係的探討，確立效率評估參數的明確準則，
以及率定和建立模式使用於不同地理區時的合理參數資料庫。
另一個模擬結果的誤差乃導源於雨量資料的不足。台灣的地形崎嶇，降雨的時空分佈 變異甚大，但是目前山區的雨量站寥寥可數，根本無法有效顯示各場降雨事件的時空分佈 特性。而許多有關的災害，如土石流、洪水的預警又多仰賴有效降雨資訊的掌握，因此山 區雨量站的廣泛裝設應該是刻不容緩的當務之急。而如何有效將少數幾點的雨量時序資料 轉換成可以操作又合理的時空變動資訊，也是未來值得進一步探索的研究議題。
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