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第五章 結論
本文建立一個小型開放經濟的內生成長模型，並且以貨幣進入生產函數的方 式，將貨幣引入經濟體系。據此，我們分別探討勞動外生及勞動內生的狀況下，
央行以釘住通貨膨脹率作為貨幣政策，民眾的信念是否可以造成景氣的波動，並 探討央行採行未預料到的貨幣政策及預料到的貨幣政策會如何影響經濟體系相 關變數的成長率。
根據本文的分析，我們發現在勞動外生的狀況下，通貨膨脹率與 Tobin q 值 呈現負向關係，由此我們可以推論，提高通貨膨脹率目標將對經濟成長率造成負 面的影響。當央行採取通貨膨脹率指標作為貨幣政策時，經濟體系呈現均衡的確 定性，此時民眾不會產生自我預期兌現的情形，表示民眾的信念不會造成景氣的 波動。若央行調整通貨膨脹率目標時，名目貨幣供給成長率和通貨膨脹率呈現不 同比例的變動，且變動方向不確定，需端視實質餘額成長率下降的效果與通貨膨 脹率調整的效果何者較大才可決定。在政策宣示的部分，宣告期間的長短僅影響 經濟成長率、實質資本成長率及實質貨幣餘額成長率的跳動幅度，不影響動態調 整路徑的形狀。
在勞動內生化的狀況下，通貨膨脹率增減不影響 Tobin q 值的變動，故提高 通貨膨脹率目標不會影響經濟成長率。當央行採取通貨膨脹率指標作為貨幣政策，
勞動需求線斜率大於勞動供給線斜率時，經濟體系呈現均衡的不確定性，此時民 眾會有自我兌現的情形，表示民眾的信念可以造成景氣的波動；反之，當勞動市 場的勞動需求線斜率小於勞動供給線斜率時，經濟體系呈現均衡的確定性，此時 民眾不會有自我預期兌現的情形，表示民眾的信念無法造成景氣的波動。在央行 調整通貨膨脹率目標時，名目貨幣供給成長率和通貨膨脹率呈現同方向、同比例 變動。最後，政策宣示部分，政策宣告期間的長短會造成經濟成長率、實質資本 成長率及實質貨幣餘額成長率呈現不同的動態調整路徑。
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