本文探討2000年7/25~2006年12/8期間,台灣發生危機事件時,外國投資者對於台灣 股市的操作策略以及投資績效,期間為五個危機事件並且對各年度的市值前六十大股票 為樣本來做研究。
實證結果顯示外資於危機事件前傾向使用贏家順勢策略,並使用買入過去下跌股票 的輸家逆勢策略,各個天期的策略皆相距不遠。危機事件發生後外資則是加強了贏家順 勢策略,而在輸家組合方面使用賣去過去下跌股票的輸家順勢策略。輸家順勢策略的使 用或會加強股市的動盪,造成其他投資者跟隨外資殺跌的現象出現。
關於績效部分,外資在危機事件前贏家組合方面的績效均為良好,在輸家組合使用 逆勢策略績效表現較為低弱。而危機事件後加強贏家順勢策略也帶來良好的績效,而使 用輸家順勢策略績效也漸有改善。表示外資在危機事件前後對於資訊的掌握度不一造成 策略上的轉換與績效的優劣,尤其在輸家組合方面相對明顯。
本研究在投資上可發現幾個意含,或能相對的增進獲利機會,首先外資傾向追買過 去贏家,在此方面外資的績效較佳,其策略可供投資人參考。而當有事件發生時追隨外 資買進過去贏家、賣出過去輸家,或可獲得較好績效。另一方面,在危機事件期間政府 應否介入避免外資過分追漲殺跌,因其可能會增加市場的不穩定性,此乃為政府可以深 思熟慮的問題。研究發現於危機事件中應預防國際熱錢追漲殺跌,支持政府開放市場,
獎勵優良外資長期投資台灣,增進台灣在世界金融的重要性及成長。
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