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U.S.-China Trade War and the Trend of U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations
Chun-wei Ma
(Research Fellow, Cross-Strait Studies and Exchange Department, Foundation on Asia-Pacific Peace Studies)
Abstract
U.S.-China relations is the most important influence on U.S.-China-Taiwan triangle. Currently, the trend of US-China relations is influenced by the U.S.-China trade war from 2017. However, the trade war is just a symbol of competition. For the nature of US-China relations, we could use the so-called Thucydides’s Trap as a framework. After the trend of U.S.-China relations are defined, we can more easily observe the influence of the “Spiral Model” on cross-Strait relations and the role of the “Alliance Trap” on Taiwan-U.S. relations. If there exists a bad situation of these three traps, it quite possibly could cause war. Nevertheless, based on the finding of this paper, the relations between the U.S. and China have not indulged in the Thucydides’s Trap but they have become worse than before. This could make the cross-Strait relations harder to escape from the “Spiral Model” and make it more likely to cause an “Alliance Trap”
between Taiwan and the U.S.
Keywords: U.S.-China-Taiwan Relations, U.S.-China Trade War, Thu-cydides’s Trap, Spiral Model, Alliance Trap