This thesis aimed to answer the question of which strategy has brought many benefits in maintaining stable Vietnam’s relations with a dominant China in the 21st century. The conclusion is that hedging strategy is a rational choice for the country, but has still not produced a significant success. Specifically, the thesis introduces five elements to address the rationality of Vietnam’s choice, including historical experience of the failed application of balancing and bandwagoning towards China decades ago, the domestic and bilateral conditions after two countries normalized their relations, the development of Vietnam’s external relations and changes in international strategic environment, its economic characteristic and strategic culture.
Vietnam’s hedging strategy is employed with four main components, namely economic pragmatism, direct engagement, hard balancing and soft balancing (Le, 2013b). These components reflect the nature of the hedging strategy, helping Vietnam to maintain a peaceful, stable and cooperative relationship with China for its domestic development, while facilitating it to counter Chinese aggressive, undue and provocative behaviour.
In relation to the second perception, however, there merely three components are introduced and analysed to understand the Vietnamese government’s policy decisions towards Chinese involvement in the cooperation of Greater Mekong Sub-region between Vietnam and China. By reviewing, considering and re-assessing these factors, this thesis concludes that although a dense network of bilateral engagement with China is developed in various way and levels and many strategic partnerships with major powers and regional countries as well as Vietnam’s regional multilateral arrangements are established, so far Vietnam’s operationalization of this strategy has not received optimal results. The reason is that Vietnam’s achievements bring about new risks of national security on the side of Vietnam only.
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How is Vietnam’s hedging going to deal with China’s aggressiveness in the SCS? In order to answer this question we must look at the implementing process of economic pragmatism, hard balancing and soft balancing. As discussed in previous chapter, economic pragmatism is suitable with the logic of hedging; however, Vietnam is falling into the trap of trade liberalization in the Vietnam-China relationship that make the country’s dependence on China increasingly higher. This may result in the instability of domestic economy if China disrupts bilateral engagements with Vietnam. Moreover, this implication surely affect the employment of hedging’s other components. Of course, once the economic bilateral ties are obstructed purposely, Vietnam’s military modernization would be impossible.
In the case of GMS, while hydropower might meet Vietnam’s national energy demand, improving living condition of riverside communities; the potential implications of hydropower development from upstream inevitably damage the life-source of millions of people in the Mekong Delta. Furthermore, they will directly suffer from the environment consequences of the deployed energy projects: erosion, water shortage, inundation…
On hard balancing, although Vietnam’s purchase of weapons depending on the threat of Chinese, Vietnam military doctrine is not to create a completely destructive arms race. As a result, if the firepower gap between China and Vietnam is clearly inclined toward China’s favor, Vietnam will still have an impact on China's aggressive stance with its defence strategy and one unique military doctrine: the people’s war posture.
On soft balancing, it seems that Chinese artificial constructions in Spratlys are nearly completed; it is difficult for claimants to tackle the SCS disputes. Additionally, for Vietnam, its significant interests from its economic relations with China produce tensions for itself.
Because the sea plays a crucial role in the development of Vietnam’s effective exploitation of the marine resources for economic development, Vietnam increasingly enhances its cooperative activities with foreign oil companies. However, China continuously counters
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Vietnam’s efforts have generated tensions for their relations. As a result, despite Vietnam’s endeavours of selective military expansion with other powers, it has still not improved its own security position.
In conclusion, with a giant neighbour like China, Vietnam has been experimenting various policies which may help in understanding its giant friend better and find out the most appropriate strategy to manage its assertive behaviour in recent years. It seems clearly that hedging is chosen as Vietnamese final card to vis-à-vis China because it provides Vietnam with the far more flexibility to tackle China’s uncertain behaviour in future while enabling Vietnam to gain meritorious outcomes out of the present relationship. If hedging is not considered in Vietnam’s China policy, the likelihood of the detriment of national security and interests (sovereignty, territorial integrity, political and economic autonomy) would be very difficult to prevent. Though the economic commitment for Hanoi in maintaining and consolidating bilateral relations with Beijing are clearly crucial, these are Chinese strategic factor that constitutes a perfect trap; by growing Chinese maritime incursions, increasingly threatening Vietnam's maritime territorial claims, especially in relation to the Spratly Islands.
Despite Vietnam’s military modernization, the difference in size and operational capabilities between the two countries’ forces continues to present a security dilemma.
In a new perspective after the verdict of the international court in July 2016, what the future of Sino-Vietnamese relations will look like? Given the importance of these two states both regionally and globally, this is a question that deserves further study. This thesis does not attempt to answer this question since the paper focuses primarily on the drivers and operators of Vietnamese strategy towards China. Given the findings on Vietnamese policy, however, certain predictions from the Vietnamese side could be made about the future of this bilateral relationship. In addition, the PRC’s policy towards Vietnam such as the illegal
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construction of China in Vietnam’s waters will play an equally essential part in determining the future of Sino-Vietnamese relations.
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