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Chapter Three: Path Dependent Analysis
Chapter three presents the originality of path dependent analysis and more detailed
information about its core value mentioned in chapter two, “critical juncture” and
“self-reinforcing effect.” Closing with the reasoning of choosing both 2008 Olympics
and 2014 APEC Summit as critical junctures for Beijing’s air pollution management.
The Origin
The very first usage of path dependent analysis was applied in economic field of
research. W. Brian Arthur and Paul A. David set the principally concepts of the path
dependence analysis. With their concept for a path dependent development to occur is
that a technology is subject to self-reinforcement, respectively positive feedback.29
Increasing returns could provide the utility for actors to choose the same path later on
when facing similar situations.
To broaden the usage of path dependence analysis, Douglas North applied the
concept in his institutional change theory. Thus, the idea of institution was introduced
into the analysis. To understand institution, we first reviewed the definition brought
out by North, “Institutions are the rules of the game in a society. Or more formally,
29 W. Brian Arthur, “Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events,”
The Economic Journal 394 (1989): 116-131.
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are the humanly devised constraints that shape human interaction.”30 He also argued
that the path dependence analysis could fully applied to institutional analysis because
there are increasing returns to institutions.31
Paul Pierson extended the use of path dependency analysis into political science.
He even mentioned that applying the analysis to political analysis could be much
more relevant than economic analysis.32 He argues that the condition of increasing
returns is always present in the case of political institutions because they create
common expectations among actors and thus lower the transaction costs associated
with coordinating behavior.33 Paul Pierson also extended the original limitation on
“endogeneity requirement.”34 He indicated that not every path is characterized by
self-reinforcing sequences, but may depend on factors that are external to the process
itself.
Kathleen’s work further summarized the previous work and focused in particular
30 Douglas C. North, “Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance,” Cambridge University Press, 1990.
31 Ibid.
32 Paul Pierson, “The Path to European Integration: A Historical Institutionalist Approach,”
Comparative Politics Studies 29 (1996): 123-163.
33 Thomas Rixen, and Lora Viola, “Uses and Abuses of the Concept of Path Dependence: Notes toward a Clearer Theory of Institutional Change,” July 2009.
34 First, when Arthur and David explained the analysis, they took endogeneity to be a second essential characteristic of path dependence. Both condition of “reproduction” and “endogeneity” needed to be met to characterize a process as path dependent. See more on Thomas et al.’s “Uses and Abuses of the Concept of Path Dependence: Notes toward a Clearer Theory of Institutional Change,” 2009: 6-8.
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on founding moments and “critical junctures.” Her papers criticized former concept of
path dependence as “both too contingent and too deterministic.”35 From her point of
view, it is too contingent because in the initial choice situation small events can make
an overly big difference. It is too deterministic because once a path is adopted there is
automatic stability. She suggested the gradual change may occur, and that stability
will have to be actively produced by political actors.36
Core Concept: Critical Juncture
According to Collier and Collier ‘s paper, a critical juncture could be defined as
“a period of significant change, which typically occurs in distinct ways in different
countries (or other units of analysis) and which is hypothesized to produce distinct
legacies.”37 Another definition by Capoccia and Kelemen, “relatively short periods of
time during which there is a substantially heightened probability that agent’s choices
will affect the outcome of interest.” By “substantially heightened probability,” they
referred to the probability that agents’ choice will affect the outcome of interest must
be high relative to that probability before and after the juncture.38
35 Thelen 1999, 385
36 Ibid.
37 Ibid., 23.
38 Ibid., 23.
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Both of the definitions contain several similarities. First, critical juncture is the
time when distinct policies are made during the historical timeline; second, the change
would last for at least a period of time and constrain future choices.
Critical junctures also have to meet some requirements. First, junctures have to be
relatively “small events” since major events are more prone to cause changes. But
why 2008 Beijing Olympics and 2014 APEC Summit could be considered small
events? Detailed explanations will be offered in the later part; Second, major changes
needed to be observed in order for one to argue it is a critical juncture. Either from the
difference principle policies of FYP or the proportion of funds provided for
environmental policies, the focus of China has gradually changing its pivot toward a
more environmental friendly aspect. Thus, critical juncture believers suggested that
with the appearance of these time periods along the history, actors would change its
original path according to either the limitation of the events or its domestic needs for
the events. As the result, the change will persist afterwards when the actor is facing
identical or similar choosing conditions.
Core Concept: Self-Reinforcing Effect
The concept of self-reinforcing effect was brought out by mathematicians. They
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called the process a “Polya urn process.” Imagine a very large urn containing two
balls, one is black, the other is red. Remove one ball, and then return it to the urn,
accompanied by an additional ball of the same color. Repeat this process until the urn
fills up. The additional ball here simply means the effect of increasing return. So the
second time, or the 100th time you repeat the process, there are very high possibility
that the urn is going to be full of either red or black balls. The process perfectly shows
the essence of path dependence analysis. When one actor act (to pick a ball) in an
event (to play the Polya urn process), the increasing return (to put another ball which
is the same color one picks) will make the actor hard to go back to its original path (at
first, the color ratio was 50% 50%, since one color ball was added, the ratio is
gradually changing). Each step along a particular path produces consequences which
make that path more attractive for the next round. When such effects begin to
accumulate, they generate a powerful virtuous cycle of self-reinforcing activity. Paul
Pierson consider four prominent aspects which social politics conducive to increasing
return process: the central role of collective action; the high density of institutions; the
possibilities for using political authority to enhance asymmetries of power; and its
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intrinsic complexity and opacity.39 The argument allow the path dependence analysis
to fit more into research fields in social sciences.
In social science, it is because of the self-reinforcing effect that actors or decision
makers will not “go back” to its original path of policies. The effect either comes from
domestic region or foreign countries, such as positive feedbacks from the public or
foreign organizations. These feedbacks then form the potential power for the actor to
act in the same way as last time whenever it meets similar activities in the future.
Hence, the changing policies could be witnessed and the path dependent analysis
could be founded.
The Choosing of Both Events
The basic elements to recognize an event as critical juncture relies on the
visibility of policy turns and it has to be relatively small event. Since historians all
considered big events will surely be the change of certainly policy, path dependent
analysis emphasizes on the effect on the small event. So how could 2008 Olympics, a
mega-sport events in a great scale, be categorized into critical juncture? The core
reason is the word “small” could have different interpretations. For this paper, “small”
39 Paul Pierson, “Increasing Returns, Path Dependence, and the Study of Politics,” The American Political Science Review 94, no.2 (Jun2000): 251-267.
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neither necessary have to be the size of the event nor the amount of money poured
into the event, but the “concept of the event.” We could conclude that the main
concept for 2008 Olympics was not to offer Beijing municipal area a clean
atmosphere but to hold a mega-sport event for the world to see that China, as well as
other developed countries in the world, could manage to handle the massive work for
holding the Olympic Games and hence, to show the national power of China40. Air
pollution problem was the byproduct because of the event. So, these kinds of
international, huge-in-scale event could literally force China to alter its path of its
original disinterest for environmental issue such as Beijing’s air pollution problem.
As well as the 2014 APEC Summit, its original purpose was to gather the leaders
around pacific region to discuss about the economic future and possible further
cooperation economically and politically. However, “APEC Blue” came as another
media spotlight simply because again, the air was clean when an international mega
events was held in Beijing.
Chapter Conclusion
In this thesis, 2008 Beijing Olympics and 2014 APEC Summit were set to be the
40 Evans Phidelis Aryabaha, “The Role of the Beijing Olympics in China’s Public Diplomacy and its Impact on Politics, Economics and Environment,” University of Malta, (2010): 81.
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critical juncture of Beijing’s air pollution problem. The two activities shared some
common grounds: first, both of them were held in Beijing. This is the basic and the
most important common ground because if the events were not held in Beijing,
Beijing’s government won’ t have the intention and pressure to implement such
stringent policies effort; second, international actors were involved to watch China’s
move. In Yu’s perspective, China’s policy-making, at least in the area of climate
change, is actually highly coordinated and is subjected more to international rather
than domestic constraints.41 Hence, international events such as the 2008 Olympics
and 2014 APEC Summit were chosen to be the critical junctures in this thesis; third,
by statistics, the air quality during both activities and short term after the activities
were obviously better than their preparation time. Path dependent analysis especially
using critical junctures for explanation, can offer a different perspective on Beijing’s
air pollution control issue.
41 Yu Hong Yuan, “Global Warming and China’s Environmental Diplomacy,” Nova Science Publisher (2008): 9-10.
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