大陸環境政策與路徑分析理論：以北京空氣汙染治理為例 - 政大學術集成

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(1) . International Master’s Program in International Studies National Chengchi University 國立政治大學國際研究英語碩士學位學程. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. China’s Environmental Protection Policies and Path Dependent 治政 Analysis: In the Case of Beijing Air 大立 Pollution Control 大陸環境政策與路徑分析理論： al 以北京空氣汙染治理為例 v ni C n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. hengchi U. Ping-Cheng, Chen Advisor: Chung-chian, Teng. . 1 .

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(4) . 中文摘要. 大陸環境政策與路徑分析理論：以北京空氣污染治理為例. 研究生姓名：陳品誠論文指導教授：鄧中堅教授指導教授系所：國立政治大學外交學系. 政治大關鍵字：中國大陸、環境政策、路徑分析法、決策模型、北京奧立. ‧ 國. 學. 運、APEC. ‧. 摘要：近年來，大陸已經從一個強調經濟發展的國家蛻變為一個注重經濟發展但是也關注永續發展的國家。大陸從只願付出共同但有區別責 al v 任到積極做出空氣污染管制的大國，是否可以藉由不同於以往的模 ni Ch U engchi 型來解釋？本論文主要運用路徑分析法的概念來闡述北京的空氣污 n. er. io. sit. y. Nat. 染治理政策演進，藉由設定奧運和 APEC 北京為治理的「關鍵節點」，進一步闡述國家與地方環境政策的變化與演進。而中國政策決策制度的演進也是影響環境政策的輔助因素，因此第四章也特別說明中國大陸制定決策的模式演變。希望藉由不同的理論來解釋當前北京乃至中國的環境治理，並檢視當前環境治理的不足及說明未來可能的發展方向。. . 2 .

(5) . TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION ........................................................ 6 ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................. 6 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................... 7 RESEARCH MOTIVATION ..................................................................................................... 10 . CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW .......................................... 13 CHINA’S CHANGING STANDS ON ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION ACTIONS ........................ 13 AIR POLLUTION PROBLEM IN BEIJING ................................................................................ 16 CHINA’S DECISION-MAKING PROCESS AND ITS INFLUENCE ................................................. 19 PATH DEPENDENT ANALYSIS AND ITS CORE VALUE ............................................................. 21 CHAPTER CONCLUSION ....................................................................................................... 24 . CHAPTER THREE: PATH DEPENDENT ANALYSIS ......................... 25 THE ORIGIN ......................................................................................................................... 25 . 政治. 大 CORE CONCEPT: CRITICAL JUNCTURE ................................................................................ 27 . 立. ‧ 國. 學. CORE CONCEPT: SELF-REINFORCING EFFECT ..................................................................... 28 THE CHOOSING OF BOTH EVENTS ........................................................................................ 30 . ‧. CHAPTER CONCLUSION ....................................................................................................... 31 . Nat. n. er. io. sit. y. CHAPTER FOUR: CHINA’S CHANGING DECISION MAKING MODEL ................................................................................................... 33 al i v CHINA ................................... 33 n IN INTRODUCTION OF THE FIVE DECISION C MAKING U h e n g cMODELS hi THE CLOSED-DOOR MODEL ................................................................................................. 34 THE MOBILIZATION MODEL ................................................................................................. 36 THE INSIDE ACCESS MODEL ................................................................................................. 37 THE OUTSIDE ACCESS MODEL .............................................................................................. 38 THE POPULAR PRESSURE MODEL ......................................................................................... 39 THE GROWING POWER OF PUBLIC PRESSURE ON ENVIRONMENT ISSUES ............................. 40 THE EFFECT OF CHANGING DECISION-MAKING MODEL TO GOVERNMENT’S AWARENESS OF ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES ..................................................................................................... 44 . CHAPTER CONCLUSION ....................................................................................................... 46 . CHAPTER FIVE: CRITICAL JUNCTURE I: 2008 BEIJING OLYMPICS .............................................................................................. 49 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................... 49 CRITICAL JUNCTURE: THE HOSTING OF 2008 SUMMER OLYMPIC GAMES ........................... 49 . 3 .

(6) . STATISTICS OF AIR POLLUTION DATA BEFORE, DURING AND AFTER THE 2008 OLYMPICS .... 51 POLICIES IMPLEMENTED ...................................................................................................... 56 CHAPTER CONCLUSION ....................................................................................................... 58 . CHAPTER SIX: CRITICAL JUNCTURE II: 2014 APEC SUMMIT .... 60 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................... 60 CRITICAL JUNCTURE (2): THE 2014 APEC SUMMIT IN BEIJING .......................................... 61 STATISTICS OF AIR POLLUTION DATA BEFORE, DURING AND AFTER THE 2014 APEC SUMMIT ............................................................................................................................................ 62 POLICIES IMPLEMENTED ...................................................................................................... 67 CHAPTER CONCLUSION ....................................................................................................... 68 . CHAPTER SEVEN: USING PATH DEPENDENT ANALYSIS ............ 71 NATIONAL FYP ................................................................................................................... 71 OTHER IMPORTANT ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES ................................................................. 77 . 治. 政 LOCAL GOVERNANCE IN BEIJING ........................................................................................ 78 大. 立. ‧ 國. 學. CHAPTER EIGHT: RESEARCH FINDINGS AND CONCLUSION.... 82 RESEARCH FINDINGS .......................................................................................................... 82 . ‧. CONCLUSION ....................................................................................................................... 85 . Nat. io. sit. y. BIBLIOGRAPHY .................................................................................... 89 n. er. APPENDIX .............................................................................................. 97 al iv n Ch engchi U. . 4 .

(7) . Table of Figures Table 1: API's Range and its Corresponding Air Quality Condition ........................... 53 Table 2: Descriptive Statistics for the Six Pollutants in Beijing Throughout the 36-day Study Period ......................................................................................................... 63. Figure 1 : Time Series of API Index for Beijing and Co-host Cities ........................... 54 Figure 2: Time Series of AOD Index for Beijing and Co-host Cities .......................... 56 Figure 3: PM2.5 Concentration Data During 2014 APEC Summit ............................. 64 Figure 4: PM10 Concentration Data During 2014 APEC Summit .............................. 64 Figure 5: NO2 Concentration During the 2014 APEC Summit ................................... 65 Figure 6: SO2 Concentration During the 2014治 APEC Summit .................................... 65. 政. 大 Summit..............................66 Figure 7: Good Air Quality Data During the 2014 APEC. 立. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat al. . Ch. n engchi U. 5 . iv.

(8) . Chapter One: Introduction Abstract In the past decade, countries and organizations around the globe have devoted themselves to brought out the important message of sustainable development. Climate change and environmental protection have been two of the core issues to be considered into state’s foreign policy. China has been facing the environmental issues in recent years. In this thesis, it argues that China’s awareness of sustainable. 政治大. development and environmental 立 protection, especially on air pollution problem in. ‧ 國. 學. ‧. Beijing, was gradually flourished as time went by. From ignoring environmental. y. Nat. er. io. sit. problem and devoting effort on one-sided economic development to positively face. al. n. iv n C U h and try to solve the air pollution problem, i gone through its decision-making e nChina g c h has and mindsets reform. Furthermore, this thesis suggests that the progress of it corresponds with a certainly path. Hence, path dependent analysis would be applied to test whether this kind of path fits air pollution control methods in China and possibly foresee the environmental future of Beijing to be a cleaner and healthier city.. . 6 .

(9) . Introduction In recent years, China has noticed the severity of environmental problem in its region. Beijing, its capital, was under terrible air condition for several decades because of multiple greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. But in the past, China was unwilling to recognize the problem until the health of its people began to be threatened by the consequences of what they have emitted. Moreover, being. 治 categorized as a developing country, it政 was unnecessary for China to shoulder the. 大. 立. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. heavy burden of CO2 emission mitigation under Kyoto Protocol. Connie Hedegaard, the EU climate chief, made a veiled reference to China after the conference when she. n. al. er. io. sit. y. Nat. said:. Ch. engchi. i Un. v. “Some people have no contributions [on cutting] emissions under the Kyoto Protocol and they want that to last. But there is a new world order now. The rich have to do more than the poorest but all will have to do something.”1 At 2012, China’s CO2 emission surpassed the US as the largest emitter in the world. As the statistics indicated, a record 36 billion tons of CO2 were emitted in 2013 by the world and China itself, produced 29% of the total emission followed by the US. 1. Fiona Harvey, “China and US Hold the Key to a New Global Climate Deal,” The Guardian, December 12, 2012. . 7 .

(10) . 15%.2 With the title of the largest emitter, the world is watching and analyzing every move and policy China made. Accompanying the enormous amount used on energy, serious aftermath left China no choice but to face the problem. China has faced and fought with severe environmental problems. Extreme weather, soil liquefaction, ecological damage by hydroelectric facilities, and air pollution are some of the disasters in China. Among all of the issues, air pollution. 政治大 could be the deadliest one and affect a larger number of citizens in China. By World 立. ‧ 國. 學. Bank statistics, and the Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning of air pollution. ‧ er. io. sit. y. Nat. indicators on health concluded that between 250,000 and 500,000 people die. a. n. 3 v prematurely each year as a result ofl C outdoor air pollution n i in China. Among all the. hengchi U. polluted areas, Beijing owns the most severe air pollution problem. Most days in a year, the sky of the area was covered by thick cloud and its air polluted by the heavy smog produced by power plant emission and automobile exhaust. Hence, the term “blue sky days” were created to indicate the precious time for people in Beijing to witness the blue sky and, of course, the effective policies government had done.. 2. Matt McGrath, “China’s Per Capita Carbon Emissions Overtake EU’s,” BBC News, September 21, 2014. 3 Zhu Chen, Jin-Nan Wang, Guo-Xia Ma, Yan-Shen Zhang. “China Tackles the Health Effects of Air Pollution,” Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning, Beijing, China. . 8 .

(11) . Even the problem has not yet solved, we could observe the mindset and policies were turning from originally careless of environmental issues to actively remedy the problem. China’s leadership began to emphasize on the challenge since 2000, both as a result of domestic pressures and international ones.4 China’s leaders have become increasingly cognizant of the need to improve the country’s environment. Changing of the mindset of Chinese leaders and citizens were also worth analyzing to acquire the. 政治大 full picture of China’s policies toward sustainable development and environmental 立. ‧ 國. 學. protection. In this paper, path dependent analysis would be applied to test China’s. ‧ er. io. sit. y. Nat. environmental policy trajectory, especially concerning air pollution problem in. a. n. v l C of China, which Beijing. For one reason it is the capital n i is the city when elites from all hengchi U. walks of life lives in and also stands for the very first impression for other country. Second, Beijing’s air pollution problem is the most severe among all the polluted area including part of Hebe, Yangzi River Delta and etc. Hence, it is reasonable for China to set the priority to clean Beijing’s air. Several “critical junctures” were set for analyzing the history of China’s. 4. These international pressures include those brought about by China’s participation in international environmental regimes, the desire of many multinationals to ensure that they and their people are operating and living in a safe environment, and China’s own desire to present a positive image when it hosts major international events such as APEC and the Olympics. . 9 .

(12) . environmental policies. First is “the hosting of 2008 Summer Olympics,” and the second one is the “2014 APEC Summit in Beijing.” These junctures were chosen because of their similarities including location and the foreign (international) attention of both events. Chapter 3 will interpret and discuss more on this aspect.. Research Motivation. 政治大 As the US stepped down on climate change issue after newly-selected president 立. ‧ 國. 學. Donald Trump indicated that climate change would not be the priority of the United. ‧ er. io. sit. y. Nat. States and he would put emphasis on energy sector and try to maximize possible. a. n. v l C employment rate. China’s role on fighting climate change n i suddenly become much hengchi U. more essential than before. China’s participation in international climate change negotiations has evolved from playing a peripheral role to moving gradually to center stage.5 Although articles have concluded that China is now stepping forward and realizing the never-before-seen endeavor for climate change.6 But still, air pollution problem has troubling China till now. Among all the cities, Beijing serves as China’s. 5. Isabel Hilton, Li Shuo, Zhang Zhongxiang, Joanna Lewis, Deborah Seligsohn, and Alex Wang, “Is China a Leader of Laggard on Climate Change?” China File, December 9, 2016. Last accessed: http://www.chinafile.com/conversation/china-leader-or-laggard-climate-change 6 Hong Yuan 2013, Hilton and Kerr 2016, Li and Wang 2012. . 10 .

(13) . capital, would be reasonably why China had prioritized for easing the air pollution in China as the top agenda of its environmental problem.. We could observe the change. of China’s attitude toward the issues, but path dependent analysis has not yet been used to test the correlation of some important moments of China and the policy changes after it. The main goal of this thesis is to test whether the selected two critical junctures including “2008 Olympics” and “2014 APEC” could serve as China’s turning point, or, at least the beginning of subtle change of its attitude and policies.. 政治大. 立 Beijing’s environmental protection would leap And if this pattern could be solidified,. ‧ 國. 學. ‧. forward and same method could be possibly implemented on other cities in China to. y. Nat. er. io. sit. benefit more people and free them from air pollution problem.. al. n. iv n C U h The following chapters would be written chapter two would be the e n gascfollow: hi literature review including China’s changing awareness on environmental policies, air pollution problem in Beijing, the impact of 2008 Olympics and 2014 APEC Summit, the changing decision-making model of China, and path dependent analysis; chapter three illustrates the use of path dependent analysis first from economic then to social studies; chapter four would be the in depth discussion about path China’s changing decision-making model; chapter five would interpret the first critical juncture which is. . 11 .

(14) . 2008 Olympics; chapter six would delve into the second critical juncture of 2014 APEC Summit; chapter seven would be the theoretical approach of path dependent analysis; the last chapter would include assessment of the changing attitude and closing conclusions.. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. n. er. io. sit. y. Nat al. . Ch. n engchi U. 12 . iv.

(15) . Chapter Two: Literature Review My review of related literature would consist of several parts: China’s changing stands on environmental protection actions, air pollution problem in Beijing, China’s decision-making model, and path dependent analysis. All of which are parts of the answers to my research question: Can China’s environmental policies trajectory fits in path dependent analysis using Beijing’s air pollution control as an example?. 治. 政 China’s Changing Stands on Environmental Protection 大 Actions. 立. ‧ 國. 學. Environmental issues are not the main consideration for China before 1970.7. ‧. er. io. sit. y. Nat. The core impetus of China’s national policies lied on economic development rather. n. al than cleaner energy resources or easing air or soil pollution i v problem. One reason was Ch. n engchi U. that China still categorized as “developing countries” rather than “developed countries.” The ultimate goal of developing countries was to become wealthier and then could invest and develop innovative technologies to improve the original secondary problems such as environmental ones. Thirty-five years ago, a landmark plenum of Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) famously initiated the structural reforms that boosted the country’s economy into 7. Lu Feng, and Wenjie Liao, “Legislation, Plans, and Policies for Prevention and Control of Air Pollution in China: Achievements, Challenges, and Improvements,” Journal of Cleaner Production 112 (2016): 1549-1558. . 13 .

(16) . export-oriented overdrive, transformed China into a world power, and spawned a daunting array of environmental challenges.8 Now as the economic growth has slowed down, China is now confronting the consequences of its three-decade focus on economic development and expansion with little attention paid to mounting ecological and social costs. Also, two things are for sure now: first, China’s leadership is now feeling intensifying public pressure to do something about the environment. A. 政治大 growing number of people are fed up with government’s inaction on environmental 立. ‧ 國. 學. issues; second, unlike 1978, when all that mattered was the economy, today. ‧ er. io. sit. y. Nat. “economic, ecological, and social reforms” jostle for attention.9 As the paper will. a. n. v discuss later, the decision-making lprocess has also been n i altering along the path. C hengchi U. Public pressure gained its influence in China’s decision making process. The closeddoor model has been proved as incongruity after the spread of message to the public mainly through the internet. China couldn’t hold the strong man’s decision making model for all of its polices. On the other hand, we could observe the transcendent changes in China’s. 8. “China at Crossroads: Balancing the Economy and Environment,” Yale Environment 360. http://e360.yale.edu/features/china_at_crossroads_balancing_the_economy_and_environment (last availble: 2017 April 2) 9 Ibid. . 14 .

(17) . principle national policy, the Five Year Plan (FYP). Chinese government implemented several new policies during the 10th and 11th FYP to improve environmental pollution control efforts and reduce energy consumption. According to a survey, the investment for environment was doubled than that in the 9th during the 10th FYP.10 From the weight of money spend can we began to argue the changing awareness of its environmental problems. Later in chapter 7, two pairs of FYP (one pair is 10th and. 政治大. 11th, the other is 12th and 13th) would 立 be compared to testify the turning of China’s. ‧ 國. 學. stands on environmental protection and sustainable development.. ‧ y. Nat. n. al. er. io. sit. More recently, China’s intended nationally determined contribution (INDC) was. iv. C hParis Agreement proposed on June 30 , 2016 before the U n to show the determination of th. engchi. Chinese government on fighting global climate change and its domestic environmental problems. The main goal was to cut down on CO2 emission by 40-45% in year 2020 on the basis of 2005. Besides the cut-down, China also intended to raise the ratio of non-fossil energy usage by 15% including wind, solar, thermal, and other types of renewable resources. Different measures were suggested and put into words. 10. Litao Wang, Carey Jang, Yang Zhang, Kai Wang, Qiang Chang, David Streets, Joshua Fu, Yu Lei, Jeremy Schreifels, Kebin He, Jiming Hao, Yun-Fat Lam, Jerry Lin, Nicholas Meskhidze, Scott Voorhees, Dale Evarts and, Sharon Phillips, “Assessment of air quality benefits from national air pollution control policies in China. Part I: Background, emission scenarios and evaluation of meteorological predictions,” Atmospheric Environment 44 (2010): 3442-3448. . 15 .

(18) . in different national policies such as “China’s Policies and Actions for Addressing Climate Change” (first issued in 2007, then 2011 through 2015), 12th FYP and 13th FYP and etc. Both domestic and international news were reported the actions for fighting climate change in 12th FYP were considered to be successful.11 Air pollution of course is a huge issue, but there are other pollution problems also in China such as polluted drinking water and soil pollution. But this thesis would only focus on the air. 立. 政治大. ‧ 國. 學. pollution in Beijing to see whether China could improve or even solve the problem. ‧. with its changing attitude.. sit. y. Nat. al. er. io. Air Pollution Problem in Beijing. n. v ni U e n g c in h iChina to suffer from it, these Air pollution has caused different regions Ch. regions include Beijing, Yangtze River Delta, Hebe province and etc. It has already been widely discussed to ease the air pollution problem in China. In different mega cities, different major air pollutants are affecting citizens’ pulmonary system. Particular matter (PM)12, SO2, and NO2 are considered to be the most prominent air pollutants in Beijing.13 PM were found 34% from mineral sources 11. “Beijing Air Quality Improved in 2014 Despite Pollution Alerts, Authorities Say,” The Guardian, January 5, 2016. Last accessed: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jan/05/beijing-airquality-improved-in-2015-despite-pollution-alerts-authorities-say 12 Definition for PM2.5: fine particles less than 2.5 micrometers in diameter Definition for PM10: coarse particles 2.5 to 19 micrometers in diameter 13 “True Reveal of Beijing’s PM2.5 Sources: Local pollution take up to 70%,” Sina Tech, October 31, 2014. Last accessed: http://tech.sina.com.cn/d/2014-10-31/14329750274.shtml . 16 .

(19) . from cement, steel manufacture, smelting and fugitive dust at the industrial site, 20% contribution from a coal-fired power plant and a 16% contribution from the anthropogenic regional background.14 The other major pollutants were mainly contributed by the vehicle and its growing population. Hence, the vehicle control measures taken during the 2008 Olympics and 2014 APEC Summit had successfully decreased the air pollution during both periods of time.15 Still, there are other non-. 政治大. 立 including dust storm and air pollutant from Beijing sources (NBS) of pollutants. ‧ 國. 學. ‧. nearby regions. The complexity of sources and the heavy dependency on coal burning. y. Nat. n. al. er. io. sit. industry made the air pollution problem in Beijing hard to ameliorate.. i Un. Ch. v. So, can we say the air in Beijing is ecleaner Do people in Beijing still need i n g c hnow? to wear mask to go out for school? Both answers would be yes under the short term measures, but in the long term, government has to do much more to ensure the “yes” answer for both questions. Luckily, we could observe the commendable change of air quality in recent years in Beijing. The rising awareness of the problem came after Beijing was chosen to be the hosting of 2008 Summer Olympics, though it was not 14. Chak K. Chan, XiaoHong Yao, “Air Pollution in Mega Cities in Chins,” Atmospheric Environment 42 (2008): 1-42. 15 Wen Xu, “Beijinghuanbaoju: Jidongchexianxingdui ‘APEC Blue’ gongxianzuida” (Beijing Environmental Protection Bureau: Limitations on Motor Vehicles had Great Contribution to the “APEC Blue”), Tengxun, December 18, 2014. Last accessed: http://news.qq.com/a/20141218/003202.htm?pgv_ref=aio2012&ptlang=205 . 17 .

(20) . the primary concern for China to clean the air.16 But cleaning the air pollution in Beijing is still a must-do, otherwise athletes around the world would not attend the Beijing Olympics. Haile Gebrselassie, two times Olympics gold medal owner from Ethiopia claimed that he won’t be able to run for his country because the air in Beijing would trigger his asthma17. Such claims would cause to China lose the prestige which it wished to get from the Olympics because China couldn’t even manage to better the. 治. air pollution problem “in their capital.”政 For fighting大 air pollution, China issued a large. 立. ‧ 國. 學. amount of different measures to counter air pollution problem before 2008 Olympics.. ‧. er. io. sit. y. Nat. Since December 1998, its municipal government had implemented 10 stages of. n. a l measures and a series comprehensive emergency control i v of new local emission Ch. n engchi U. standards were promulgated and implemented to mitigate the SO2, NOx and PM pollution from coal burning, industry, vehicle exhaust and fugitive dust. Estimated that Beijing’s power plants emitted 49% of the total SO2 emission, either to search for an alternative power sources like wind or solar or to “move” the power plants away from Beijing, measures against power plant greenhouse gas emissions were fully implemented to ease the air pollution problem in Beijing. One can argue that Beijing’s 16. Virendra Verma, “Beijing Olympics: An Exhibition of Chinese Soft Power.” Michael Phillips, “Gebrselassie out of Beijing Marathon,” The Guardian, March 11, 2008. Last accessed: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2008/mar/11/athletics.sport 17. . 18 .

(21) . air has improved, but also scholars and researchers found out that China’s temporary fixes to create clean air during high-profile and politically sensitive events are making smog worse in the long run. They indicated that pollution levels bounced back dramatically and levels were even worse than expected after the meetings has finished.18 Even though the air pollution problem in Beijing has not yet been solved, government has showed the willingness and citizens as well as majority people in. 治. 政 the air 大 China now share the predilection to improve pollution problem. This is a good. 立. ‧ 國. 學. sign of starting to solve the environmental issues in China, at least it is better than. ‧. sit. n. al. er. io. developing countries.. y. Nat. neglecting the problems and saying that developed countries need to do more than. Ch. n engchi U. iv. China’s Decision-making Process and Its Influence The decision making process in China has great influence on the output of its policies. Several phases of the process could be observed and categorized. This paper then suggested that the changing of decision making model in its environmental policies had also contributed some key change of the concept in environmental protection along the history. According to Shaoguang Wang, a professor and analysist 18. Serenitie Wang, and Katie Hunt, “China: ‘Political Blue Sky Comes at a Price,” CNN, December 16, 2016. http://edition.cnn.com/2016/12/15/asia/china-air-pollution-study/ . 19 .

(22) . in Tsinghua University, saying that “the Chinese government has gone through several phases of decision-making process which were: the closed-door model and the mobilization model which became obsolete in these years; the inside access model which could be normal practiced in recent years; the reach-out model and the outside access model which were occasionally observed now; and the last one, the popular-pressure. 立. 政治大. ‧ 國. 學. model that are frequently seen in recent events and policies.”19. ‧. The rising awareness of environmental changes could be categorized in the last. sit. y. Nat. al. er. io. one, the popular-pressure model, especially when the “real PM2.5” statistics were. n. v ni U n g c h i cause pressure for government to disclosed in Beijing. People’s awarenessesomehow Ch. react and change the policy path because of the popular-pressure. Statistics showed that about three-quarters of people in China say air pollution is a big problem, including 35 percent who regard it as a “very severe problem.”20 Also, a broad majority (71 percent) of Chinese support an international deal limiting GHG emissions, roughly in line with the 78 percent of global average.21 This could not be 19. Shaoguang Wang, “Changing Models of China’s Policy Agenda Setting,” Modern China 34, (2008 Jan): 20 George Gao, “As Smog Hangs Over Beijing, Chinese Cite Air Pollution as Major Concerns,” PewResearch Center, December 10, 2015. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/12/10/as-smog-hangs-over-beijing-chinese-cite-airpollution-as-major-concern/ 21 Ibid. . 20 .

(23) . true when we look back in the 60s when the closed-door model was obviously the mainstream or the only stream for decision making. Hence, understanding the flow of China’s decision making process could also provide another dimension of information on policy changes and evidence of changing idea about environmental protection and sustainable development. Path Dependent Analysis and Its Core Value. 治. Path dependent analysis can be used政 as a way to track 大 the changing of certain ideas. 立. ‧ 國. 學. or policies; thus this paper argues that the environmental protection awareness of. ‧. er. io. sit. y. Nat. China could fit the model for explaining the changing path of China’s environmental. n. a l the model, it is required policies. In order to begin utilizing i v to set and illustrate the Ch. n engchi U. two core points in the analysis. They are “critical juncture” and “self-reinforcing factors.” Some scholars such as Paul Pierson (2004)22, Giovanni Capoccia (2007)23 and Collier and Collier (1991) laid their research pivot on critical junctures as some other scholars for example, Paul A. Romer (1986), Weir (1992) and Krasner (1988) emphasized the importance of self-reinforcing factors to be more decisive in path dependent analysis. 22. Paul Pierson, “Politics in Time,” Princeton University Press, 2004. Giovanni Capoccia, and R. Daniel Kelemen, “They Study of Critical Junctures: Theory, Narrative, and Counterfactuals in Historical Institutionalism,” World Politics 59 (April 2007), 341-369. 23. . 21 .

(24) . Critical junctures are the moment when relatively small events occurred in a random time of history and eventually cause the path of observed policies to change after some time.24 For this thesis, two major critical junctures were set to illustrate. The first one is “2008 Beijing Summer Olympics,” and the second one is “2014 APEC Summit in Beijing.” Historical institutionalist scholars often emphasize critical moments in politics, distinctive developmental sequences, and the rigidities that make. 政治大. 立 from established paths.25 Both selected it difficult for social actors to escape. ‧ 國. 學. ‧. moments are considered to greatly contribute to the changing of China’s perspective. y. Nat. n. al. er. io. sit. toward sustainable development and environmental protection issues.. i Un. Ch. v. Self-reinforcing factors are the feedbacks e nfrom g c hitsi previous changing policies that could cause nation to stay on the altered path when they face the similar situation in the future. These feedbacks could be categorized into “functional effect” and “distributional effect of institutions.” Functional effect indicates that actors adapt their strategies in ways that reflect but also reinforce the logic of the system26; distributional effect of institutions reinforce the statements on institutions, saying that 24. Paul Pierson, "Increasing Returns, Path Dependence, and the Study of Politics," The American Political Science Review 94, no. 2 (June 2000): 263-266. 25 Ibid. 26 Some good examples are Streeck’s (1992) work on the political economy of Germany, Schneider’s (1997) analysis of the developmental state in Latin America and Vogel’s (1996) analysis of the politics of deregulation in the political economies of the advanced industrial countries. . 22 .

(25) . they are not neutral coordinating mechanisms but in fact reflect, also reproduce and magnify particular patterns of power distribution in politics.27 We could list some pros and cons of both “critical juncture” and “self-reinforcing effect” for comparisons. For critical junctures, the advantage is for scholars to look specifically at the different patterns of interaction between ongoing political processes and at the effect of these interactions on institutional and other outcomes. On the other. 政治大 hand, it is hard to specify the mechanisms that translate critical juncture into lasting 立. ‧ 國. 學. political legacies. For self-reinforcing effect, it could provide many insights into the. ‧ er. io. sit. y. Nat. mechanism that account for continuity over time but the strong tools for. a. n. iv l C understanding continuity are not matched by equally nsophisticated tools for hengchi U. understanding political and institutional change.28 For analyzing events through the eyes of path dependent analysis, the events need not to have both critical junctures and self-reinforcing effect to build up the whole scenario. Of course the more it could fit, the stronger it would be the explanation. Since scholars have emphasizing on either critical juncture or self-reinforcing effect, this paper will focus on critical. 27. Well-interpreted in Esping-Anderson’s (1990) work on decommodifying effects of universal welfare states and Karl’s (1997) study of petroleum-states. 28 Kathleen Thelen, “Historical Institutionalism in Comparative Politics,” Annual Review Political Science 1992: 369-404. . 23 .

(26) . junctures for interpretation of the analysis. Chapter Conclusion From above reviews, China’s stands on air pollution problem, in the case of Beijing, has gone through some critical moments for change. China has paid much more attention on this deadly problem from either policy points of view or decisionmaking points of view. For this paper, the main purpose is trying to apply the path dependent analysis into China’s changing stance of air pollution and sustainable. 政治大. 立 development problem. For the following chapters, the choosing of critical junctures. ‧ 國. 學. ‧. and how the policies were changed would be shown to explain the path dependent. y. Nat. n. er. io. al. . sit. analysis into Beijing’s air pollution problem.. Ch. n engchi U. 24 . iv.

(27) . Chapter Three: Path Dependent Analysis Chapter three presents the originality of path dependent analysis and more detailed information about its core value mentioned in chapter two, “critical juncture” and “self-reinforcing effect.” Closing with the reasoning of choosing both 2008 Olympics and 2014 APEC Summit as critical junctures for Beijing’s air pollution management. The Origin. 治 was applied in economic field of The very first usage of path dependent 政 analysis. 大. 立. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. research. W. Brian Arthur and Paul A. David set the principally concepts of the path dependence analysis. With their concept for a path dependent development to occur is. io. sit. y. Nat. er. n. that a technology is subject to self-reinforcement, respectively positive feedback.29 a. iv l C n hengchi U. Increasing returns could provide the utility for actors to choose the same path later on when facing similar situations. To broaden the usage of path dependence analysis, Douglas North applied the concept in his institutional change theory. Thus, the idea of institution was introduced into the analysis. To understand institution, we first reviewed the definition brought out by North, “Institutions are the rules of the game in a society. Or more formally,. 29. W. Brian Arthur, “Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events,” The Economic Journal 394 (1989): 116-131. . 25 .

(28) . are the humanly devised constraints that shape human interaction.”30 He also argued that the path dependence analysis could fully applied to institutional analysis because there are increasing returns to institutions.31 Paul Pierson extended the use of path dependency analysis into political science. He even mentioned that applying the analysis to political analysis could be much. 政治大 more relevant than economic analysis. He argues that the condition of increasing 立 32. ‧ 國. 學. returns is always present in the case of political institutions because they create. ‧ er. io. sit. y. Nat. common expectations among actors and thus lower the transaction costs associated. a. n. i v the original limitation on with coordinating behavior.33 Paull Pierson n C h also extended engchi U “endogeneity requirement.”34 He indicated that not every path is characterized by self-reinforcing sequences, but may depend on factors that are external to the process itself. Kathleen’s work further summarized the previous work and focused in particular. 30. Douglas C. North, “Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance,” Cambridge University Press, 1990. 31 Ibid. 32 Paul Pierson, “The Path to European Integration: A Historical Institutionalist Approach,” Comparative Politics Studies 29 (1996): 123-163. 33 Thomas Rixen, and Lora Viola, “Uses and Abuses of the Concept of Path Dependence: Notes toward a Clearer Theory of Institutional Change,” July 2009. 34 First, when Arthur and David explained the analysis, they took endogeneity to be a second essential characteristic of path dependence. Both condition of “reproduction” and “endogeneity” needed to be met to characterize a process as path dependent. See more on Thomas et al.’s “Uses and Abuses of the Concept of Path Dependence: Notes toward a Clearer Theory of Institutional Change,” 2009: 6-8. . 26 .

(29) . on founding moments and “critical junctures.” Her papers criticized former concept of path dependence as “both too contingent and too deterministic.”35 From her point of view, it is too contingent because in the initial choice situation small events can make an overly big difference. It is too deterministic because once a path is adopted there is automatic stability. She suggested the gradual change may occur, and that stability will have to be actively produced by political actors.36 Core Concept: Critical Juncture. 立. 政治大. ‧ 國. 學. According to Collier and Collier ‘s paper, a critical juncture could be defined as. ‧ er. io. sit. y. Nat. “a period of significant change, which typically occurs in distinct ways in different. a. n. v l Cand which is hypothesized countries (or other units of analysis) to produce distinct ni hengchi U. legacies.”37 Another definition by Capoccia and Kelemen, “relatively short periods of time during which there is a substantially heightened probability that agent’s choices will affect the outcome of interest.” By “substantially heightened probability,” they referred to the probability that agents’ choice will affect the outcome of interest must be high relative to that probability before and after the juncture.38. 35 36 37 38. . Thelen 1999, 385 Ibid. Ibid., 23. Ibid., 23. 27 .

(30) . Both of the definitions contain several similarities. First, critical juncture is the time when distinct policies are made during the historical timeline; second, the change would last for at least a period of time and constrain future choices. Critical junctures also have to meet some requirements. First, junctures have to be relatively “small events” since major events are more prone to cause changes. But why 2008 Beijing Olympics and 2014 APEC Summit could be considered small events? Detailed explanations will be offered in the later part; Second, major changes. 政治大. 立one to argue it is a critical juncture. Either from the needed to be observed in order for. ‧ 國. 學. ‧. difference principle policies of FYP or the proportion of funds provided for. y. Nat. er. io. sit. environmental policies, the focus of China has gradually changing its pivot toward a. al. n. iv n C U h more environmental friendly aspect. Thus, e ncritical g c h i juncture believers suggested that with the appearance of these time periods along the history, actors would change its original path according to either the limitation of the events or its domestic needs for the events. As the result, the change will persist afterwards when the actor is facing identical or similar choosing conditions. Core Concept: Self-Reinforcing Effect The concept of self-reinforcing effect was brought out by mathematicians. They. . 28 .

(31) . called the process a “Polya urn process.” Imagine a very large urn containing two balls, one is black, the other is red. Remove one ball, and then return it to the urn, accompanied by an additional ball of the same color. Repeat this process until the urn fills up. The additional ball here simply means the effect of increasing return. So the second time, or the 100th time you repeat the process, there are very high possibility that the urn is going to be full of either red or black balls. The process perfectly shows the essence of path dependence analysis. When one actor act (to pick a ball) in an. 政治大. 立 the increasing return (to put another ball which event (to play the Polya urn process),. ‧ 國. 學. ‧. is the same color one picks) will make the actor hard to go back to its original path (at. y. Nat. er. io. sit. first, the color ratio was 50% 50%, since one color ball was added, the ratio is. al. n. iv n C U h gradually changing). Each step along a particular e n g c h ipath produces consequences which make that path more attractive for the next round. When such effects begin to accumulate, they generate a powerful virtuous cycle of self-reinforcing activity. Paul Pierson consider four prominent aspects which social politics conducive to increasing return process: the central role of collective action; the high density of institutions; the possibilities for using political authority to enhance asymmetries of power; and its. . 29 .

(32) . intrinsic complexity and opacity.39 The argument allow the path dependence analysis to fit more into research fields in social sciences. In social science, it is because of the self-reinforcing effect that actors or decision makers will not “go back” to its original path of policies. The effect either comes from domestic region or foreign countries, such as positive feedbacks from the public or foreign organizations. These feedbacks then form the potential power for the actor to. 治 similar activities in the future. act in the same way as last time whenever 政 it meets. 大. 立. ‧ 國. ‧. could be founded.. 學. Hence, the changing policies could be witnessed and the path dependent analysis. er. io. sit. y. Nat n. iv The Choosing of Both Events a l C n hengchi U. The basic elements to recognize an event as critical juncture relies on the visibility of policy turns and it has to be relatively small event. Since historians all considered big events will surely be the change of certainly policy, path dependent analysis emphasizes on the effect on the small event. So how could 2008 Olympics, a mega-sport events in a great scale, be categorized into critical juncture? The core reason is the word “small” could have different interpretations. For this paper, “small” 39. Paul Pierson, “Increasing Returns, Path Dependence, and the Study of Politics,” The American Political Science Review 94, no.2 (Jun2000): 251-267. . 30 .

(33) . neither necessary have to be the size of the event nor the amount of money poured into the event, but the “concept of the event.” We could conclude that the main concept for 2008 Olympics was not to offer Beijing municipal area a clean atmosphere but to hold a mega-sport event for the world to see that China, as well as other developed countries in the world, could manage to handle the massive work for holding the Olympic Games and hence, to show the national power of China40. Air pollution problem was the byproduct because of the event. So, these kinds of 政治. 大. 立. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. international, huge-in-scale event could literally force China to alter its path of its original disinterest for environmental issue such as Beijing’s air pollution problem.. io. sit. y. Nat. er. n. As well as the 2014 APEC Summit, its original purpose was to gather the leaders a. iv l C n hengchi U. around pacific region to discuss about the economic future and possible further cooperation economically and politically. However, “APEC Blue” came as another media spotlight simply because again, the air was clean when an international mega events was held in Beijing. Chapter Conclusion In this thesis, 2008 Beijing Olympics and 2014 APEC Summit were set to be the. 40. Evans Phidelis Aryabaha, “The Role of the Beijing Olympics in China’s Public Diplomacy and its Impact on Politics, Economics and Environment,” University of Malta, (2010): 81. . 31 .

(34) . critical juncture of Beijing’s air pollution problem. The two activities shared some common grounds: first, both of them were held in Beijing. This is the basic and the most important common ground because if the events were not held in Beijing, Beijing’s government won’ t have the intention and pressure to implement such stringent policies effort; second, international actors were involved to watch China’s move. In Yu’s perspective, China’s policy-making, at least in the area of climate. 治 change, is actually highly coordinated 政 and is subjected more to international rather. 大. 立. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. than domestic constraints.41 Hence, international events such as the 2008 Olympics and 2014 APEC Summit were chosen to be the critical junctures in this thesis; third,. io. sit. y. Nat. er. n. by statistics, the air quality duringa both activities and short term after the activities. iv l C n hengchi U. were obviously better than their preparation time. Path dependent analysis especially using critical junctures for explanation, can offer a different perspective on Beijing’s air pollution control issue.. 41. Yu Hong Yuan, “Global Warming and China’s Environmental Diplomacy,” Nova Science Publisher (2008): 9-10. . 32 .

(35) . Chapter Four: China’s Changing Decision Making Model When discussing national policies, the domestic factor of decision-making process should also be considered as well. A more closed-door model of decision-making would lead to a more leader- or small group-oriented decision; on the other hand, if the decision-making process would lean to outside assess or public-pressure model, the policies would then reflect more of public voices. No matter which process is. 政治大. 立 being used in China now for environmental policies, it is patently affecting the. ‧ 國. 學. ‧. trajectory of environmental and sustainable development for China in recent years.. y. Nat. er. io. sit. Five decision making models were categorized. In this chapter, all the models would. al. n. iv n C U h be introduced and further focused on theetwo h i that would commensurately fit n g cmodels air pollution and environmental protection policies.. Introduction of The Five Decision Making Models in China Scholars have categorized and listed out the five different models through China’s decision-making history. Separately, they are “the closed-door model”, “the mobilization model”, “the inside access model”, “the outside access model”, and “the. . 33 .

(36) . popular-pressure model.”42 In this chapter, only “the closed-door model” and “the popular-pressure models would be introduced in detail because these two represent the two extreme of policy decision making process which China both applied. The popular pressure model has grown as a huge social power and the opinion of the public has somehow been influential to the core of China in recent years.. The Closed-door Model. 立. 政治大. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. The closed-door model could be traced back to Mao Zedong’s time. the main purpose and idea was to exclude the participation of the public and made the decision. io. sit. y. Nat. er. n. on the ruler’s own will. Either from a the top leader or from the small leading group, it. iv l C n hengchi U. would be unnecessary for general public to engage in the decision making process. In this model, the public was assumed of lacking the ability to understand the complexities of the policy issue, and therefore, at no point is the public greatly involved. The other reason for the unnecessity of public involvement would be the decision-making time will last too long and by that time, maybe the circumstances will not meet the leader’s interest.. 42. Shaoguang Wang, “Changing Models of China’s Policy Agenda Setting,” The Chinese University of Hong Kong and Tsinghua University. . 34 .

(37) . For the closed-door model, it could mostly be found in authoritarian states like China (in the past), Cuba, and North Korea.43 But still, in modern China, closed-door model has not yet fully disappeared. For example, in 1988, the CCP Politburo realized that prices had risen so fast that people could no longer endure it, the state council then took some measures44 to hold down prices to stabilize the domestic purchasing market. But for most of the time, this decision-making model would be discovered at. 立. 政治大. ‧ 國. 學. economic policies, which the market changed so swiftly and for China some measures. ‧. taken by central governing team would be much effective than letting all provinces to. sit. y. Nat. al. er. io. make decisions on their own. However, the previous example let the consumer price. n. v ni U e ning1988 c h i and discontent was soon index rocketed all the way to 18.8 percent Ch. contagious, which partly foreshadowed the political crisis in 1989.45 Closed-door model is a two-sided blade interpreting that general public would feel the wisdom of the decision maker if he or she made the right decision, but on the other hand, once a decision maker made the wrong decision, strong aftermath could lead to political crisis or even worse situations. 43. Sukhoon Hong, “What Does North Korea Want from China? Understanding Pyongyang’s Policy Priorities toward Beijing,” The Korean Journal of International Studies 12 (2014): 281. 44 Those measures included exerting control over government expenditures and cutting down investment in fixed assets. Then the state council decided to increase the purchase prices of some agricultural products and to replace the old practice of price-fixing with open subsidies to urban employees. 45 Ibid., 41. . 35 .

(38) . The Mobilization Model A similar model as closed-door would be “the mobilization model.” The main difference between the two model is that the latter policy makers have to go out, reach the general public to acquire the support of the mass public for its implementation but at the same time, the announcement of the new program is in fact the final result of governmental decision making.46 This政 kind of 治model was implemented when policy. 大. 立. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. makers lack the resources necessary for executing the agenda or when the public has developed a strong sense of participation.47 Mostly it was applied in setting almost all. sit. y. Nat. n. al. er. io. major and strategic agendas in Mao’s era from Land Reform, the Three-Anti and. Ch. n engchi U. iv. Five-Anti campaigns, the Great Leap Forward to the Cultural Revolution. After the opening of China, some issues remained to be raised under this decision-making progress48. For example, the one child policy in 1980, speeding up the reform of the urban economy in 1984, pushing forward the wage reform in state-owned enterprises in 1985, restructuring the labor system through breaking the iron rice bowl in 1986,. 46. Roger Cobb, Jennie-Keith Ross, and Marc Howard Ross, “Agenda building as a Comparative Political Process,” The American Political Science Review 70 (1976): 135. 47 Other possible timing includes: when the legitimacy of the closed-door model is widely questioned, if successful implementation of such as agenda requires widespread, enthusiastic support from the mass public 48 “Zhongguo gongchandang dashiji, 1978–2003” (Chronicle of the Chinese Communist Party, 1978– 2003), Renmin wang (People’s Web). Last accessed: http://cpc.people.com.cn/GB/64162/64164/index.html . 36 .

(39) . and advancing the reform of the old-age pension system of public enterprises in 1995. but more and more issues are now being disclosed to the public and thus other forms of decision-making process have begun to take over. The Inside Access Model In this model, there is only interaction between policy makers and advisors, but little, if any, interaction between the mass public and policy makers. This model was. 治 public was not the decisive element applied more frequently after the reform. 政Though. 大. 立. ‧. ‧ 國. 學. of decision-making, the leaders had changed the mindsets and let a little more number of people, which is the official brain trust that is close to the core of the power.49 The. io. sit. y. Nat. er. n. name implies the decision makinga process came from “inside” which refers to the. iv l C n hengchi U. leader or the small groups rather than the “outside” which is the mass public. One good example is the communique on the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and West Germany on September 29, 1972. During the cold war time, WangShu, a staff reporter with the Xinhua News Agency in West Germany, wrote an in-depth analysis of the Soviet strategic posture suggested that China should abandon the old view that West Germany was a “militaristic, revanchist country.” His voice. 49. Andreas Hofem, and Sebastian Heilmann, “Bringing the Low-Carbon Agenda to China: A Study in Transnational Policy Diffusion,” Journal of Current Chinese Affairs 42 (2013): 201. . 37 .

(40) . was the crucial point for China to speedily develop relations with West Germany. The main reason for China to accept the model was that “China had profoundly altered its strategic priorities.” It changes from making a country to stand on its own feet to the prosper of it.50 The Outside Access Model As we move on, public voices were trying to catch more attention to the. 治. 政 in which government. This model refers to a situation 大a citizen or a group of them. 立. ‧ 國. 學. submits suggestions on public affairs in the form of a letter to central decision makers,. ‧. er. io. sit. y. Nat. excluding complaints or appeals about the interests of an individual or a small. n. a l advisors,” they arei vneither professional trained group.51 However, for these “policy Ch. n engchi U. nor socially or economically prestigious, their voices and proposals often end up in trash can or leaders’ assistant, rarely have the chance to catch attention. This has been true both in the past and the present, in China and elsewhere. But successful examples can still be seen. In 2003, local organizations strongly opposed the hydroelectric project on the Nu River since the river was literally listed as a natural property by UNESCO one month before the National Development and Reform Commission’s 50. Ibid., 41. Setsuko Matsuzawa, “Citizen Environmental Activism in China: Legitimacy, Alliances, and Rightsbased Discourses,” ASIA Network Exchange 19 (Spring 2012): 81-91. 51. . 38 .

(41) . approval of the project. They mobilized the media in an effort to win over the public and wrote letters to the leaders of the State Council. Therefore, Wen Jiabao declared the immediate halt of the project for the goodness of the citizens and the protection of the river.52 The model is showing the change from authoritarian regime to more democratic and willing to listen and answer to the public. This model is expected to be one of the major models for China’s future agenda setting. The Popular Pressure Model. 立. 政治大. ‧ 國. 學. As we move on, public voices were trying to catch even more attention to the. ‧ er. io. sit. y. Nat. government. This model refers to a situation in which a citizen or a group of them. a. n. v l Cin the form of any submits suggestions on public affairs n i propaganda to central hengchi U. decision makers and the mass public, including complaints or appeals about the interests of an individual or a small group.53 This model can be seen as the extension of outside access model. As public awareness of certain issues arouses swiftly, the public feel the need for them to inform to the government about their thoughts. Three main features can be categorized: (1) issues emerge from nongovernmental sources. 52. “WenjiabaochurenyiliaozhantingNiJiangshuibaxiangmu” (Wen Jiabao halted the Nu River Dam Project), Epoc Times, April 9, 2004. Last accessed: http://www.epochtimes.com/b5/4/4/9/n506057.htm 53 Frances S. Berry, and William D. Berry, “Innovation and Diffusion Models in Policy Research,” Theories of the Policy Processes (1999): 169-200. . 39 .

(42) . (2) agenda initiators are not difficult to identify when an issue is first brought forward54 (3) may not function until an issue turns from the interest of a small attentive public to the public agenda concerning many people. Environmental nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) in China plays the essential role of sending the popular pressure to its government. Serving as the bridge between mass public and government, their mission is to let both parties communicate. In other words, to. 立. 政治大. ‧ 國. 學. eliminate the information asymmetric between mass public and government.55 This. ‧. model is the growing force in China to push the decision-making process more toward. sit. y. Nat. n. al. er. io. public and expected to be one of the major models for China’s future agenda setting in many aspects.. Ch. n engchi U. iv. The Growing Power of Public Pressure on Environment Issues For the last decade, China have been pursuing the single-minded highest possible aggregated growth rate. And this has resulted in a whole series of acute challenges. Including environmental crisis, the widening income gap, the lack of economic and 54. We could identify two groups of public, “attentive public” and “general public.” The former one is always a tiny segment of the population, consists of those who are most interested and involved in an issue; general public is the majority of population whose attention to most public issues tend to be transitory and who are seldom involved in policy disputes for long. 55 Tsai Fuyao, “Huanbao NGO fazhanzhongdemeitijiaosetanxi”(Analysis on the developing media character of environmental NGOs), Renmin Wang (People’s Web), July 15, 2015. Last accessed: http://media.people.com.cn/BIG5/n/2015/0715/c397479-27308164.html . 40 .

(43) . social security and so on.56 Now, this is the time for China to change course by pursing more balanced and more coordinated socioeconomic development. Hence, the public pressure from different aspect can be the changing force for China. With some key roles such as associational revolution, the changing role of the mass media, and the rise of the internet, public pressures are able to influence the decision China has made. We separately discussed the three.. 立. The associational revolution.. 政治大. ‧ 國. 學. ‧. Over 190,000 associations of various types was registered till March 2007, with. y. Nat. n. al. er. io. sit. government civil affairs departments at the county level and above.57 Among all the. i Un. Ch. v. associations, NGOs and environmental groups e n g c are h i the most active associations in China. But at 1990s, pollution was not a grave problem and did not trouble most people. Things began to change, in year 2004, with incomplete statistics, there were at least 2000 environmental NGOs in the nation.58 Fu Tao, a senior scholar in China suggested, “In year 2003 and 2004, local environmental NGOs have participated many public events with different and vivid characteristics, this indicates that the 56. Gabriel Wildau, “China Income Inequality Among World’s Worst,” Financial Times, January 14, 2016. Last accessed: https://www.ft.com/content/3c521faa-baa6-11e5-a7cc-280dfe875e28 57 MinZhengbu, 2007 58 Hong DaYong, “minjian huanbao liliang chengzhang jizhi yanjiu” (A Study of the Growth Mechanism of Nongovernmental Environmental Protectionist Forces), Forum of the Friends of Nature, June 2004. Last accessed: http://www.usc.cuhk.edu.hk/wk_wzdetails.asp?id=3959 . 41 .