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Chapter Seven: Using Path Dependent Analysis
We have to look into some policies to see if China truly has been through a change
because of the critical junctures to serve as the theoretical basis for utilizing path
dependent analysis. Thus, several policies were chosen for analysis. First, the
consecutive FYP from 10th through 13th. Then some important air pollution control
policies including National Environmental Protection Standard, Air pollution Control
Action Plan, and etc. Last, we look at the local air pollution governance in Beijing
which almost be in the lead of national policies.
National FYP
The five-year-plan policies are the most important policy guidance to observe the
policy trajectory. It lays out China’s development strategies, clarifies the
government’s working focus and provides guidance for the activities of major market
actors.110 The preparation period for 2008 Olympics crossed the 10th and 11th FYP;
on the other hand, 12th and 13th FYP could serve as good comparing examples for
2014 APEC Summit since the time was in between the two FYPs. By looking into the
very essential and core value of China’s FYP we can understand the pivot of China’s
110 Xinyan Lin, and Mark Elder, “Major Developments in China’s National Air Pollution Policies in the Early 12th Five-Year Plan Period,” IGES Policy Report No. 2013-02, 2014.
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10th and 11th FYP
We only take observation from the chapters that considered sustainable
development and pollution control issues. In 10th FYP, the chapter was called
“Population, Resources and Environment.” By the name, one can infer that the main
sustainable development goal was to control the population growth rate111. In the
same chapter, the policy also mentioned the forestry coverage rate that needed to be
increased by the number of 18.2%. Other details include water resource usage and
control over industrial pollution were also mentioned in the policy. But the overall
main goal was to keep the GDP growth rate in higher speed to keep the
development.112 Nothing about air pollution control methods were mentioned in the
policy. The sustainable development goal was basically controlled by population
index.
However, during the 11th FYP which regulated from 2006 to 2010, had much
more substantial policies toward air pollution and environmental achievement
111 In the 10th FYP, the population growth rate was expected to be controlled in 9%.
112 “The Tenth Five-Year-Plan,” Zhongguowang (China Net). Last accessed:
http://www.china.org.cn/english/features/38198.htm
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assessment regulation.113 The chapter in 11th FYP was written as “Building a
resource-efficient and environmental-friendly society.” The basic environmental
protection policy was to conserve energy, water, soil and other materials. Some more
detailed policy such as the formulation of environmental achievement assessment and
responsibility mechanisms that encourage the mass public to participate and supervise
into the environmental policies. Local leaders now are no longer judged only by their
economic performance alone, but also their environmental performance, for example,
water and air quality.114 The system of environmental supervision talks (EST) was
introduced to China in year 2007 under the 11th FYP period. The talk serves as the
dialogues between Ministry of Environment Protection (MEP) and six regional
supervision center (RSC). The talk had successfully led to the suspension of
operations for 57 major polluters in the city of Linyi.115 Later in post-2014 EST
summon local heads of government and encourage media coverage. The publicity of
the talks produces pressure on local officials to produce visible effects. This summon
can be explained by the public pressure decision making model mentioned in the
113 C. Cindy Fan, “China’s Eleventh Five-Year Plan (2006-2010): From “Getting Rich First” to
“Common Prosperity”,” Eurasian Geography and Economics 47 (2006): 708-723.
114 Elizabeth Economy, “Environmental Governance: The Emerging Economic Dimension,”
Environmental Politics 15 (2006): 171-‐189.
115 Yanzhong Huang, “Is China Serious About Pollution Control?” Council on Foreign Relations, November 20, 2015. Last accessed: http://www.cfr.org/china/china-serious-pollution-controls/p37270
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previous chapter. It is especially true when new CCP rules that hold party and
government leaders principally responsible for ecological conditions and
environmental protection.116 There was also a specific chapter on “enhancing
atmospheric pollution control.” The mentioned measures included desulfurization of
current coal-fired power plant, prohibition of newly-built and extension project of
energy-intensive industries such as steel and smelting. From 10th to 11th FYP, a huge
difference between the lines indicated the very fundamental idea changes in China.
12th and 13th FYP
The story continued to 12th FYP, since 2011, it was the first time for China to use
words “to face global climate change” in their policy but at the same time, as it’s still
categorized as a developing country, insists on common but differentiated
responsibilities. The title of the chapter was basically the same as previous 11th FYP,
but included more information on flood control capacity, earthquake disaster
prevention and relevant technological breakthrough. The aim was to be able to face
the global climate change and alleviate the casualties of sudden natural disasters for
116 Ibid.
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The most positive policies were placed in the 13th FYP. The chapter was than
written down as “Improving the ecological environment.” Even from the name of the
relative chapter can we infer the growing awareness and substantial movements in
China. In the 13th FYP, different subjects were put into specific sections for discussion
unlike the overall and principle rules which were offered in the previous FYPs. For
example, in the 11th and 12th FYP, the idea about “environmental comprehensive
governance” was brought out but didn’t include any specific regulations. In the 13th
FYP, the discussion about environmental comprehensive governance brought out the
plan to achieve certain level of air quality index in the big cities and reduce 25% of
the bad-air days in total, simultaneously emphasizing the importance of local
government’s responsibility of their own environment by implementing
environmental inspection and assessment.
In the 13th FYP, common but differentiated responsibilities was still mentioned
once to make sure they shoulder the corresponding responsibility according to the
nation’s condition. Instead of just stating itself as a developing country, many other
substantial actions were brought out in the paper. Under the main sustainable
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development goal of “improving environmental quality and solving the ecological
problem,” critical programs were set up for meeting its goal.
The first one was the carbon emission report for specific units. The report was
required to have the information about the emission statistics, quota managing
system117, inspection and target responsibility system118. The second one was the
atmospheric environment governance. The FYP specifically mentioned three areas
that have urgent needs for air quality improving. These areas were Jing-jin-ji, Pearl
river delta, and Northeast area. Also, actions such as accelerating Mei-gai-qi （煤改
氣）119program and eliminating yellow-label cars120 were considered the first to be
implemented. Last but not the least, developing energy efficient and environmental
friendly enterprises to verify green purchase, green finance, green government bonds
117 Tradable pollution rights are one of the quota managing system in China. Till 2015, China has set up more than 20 local trading platforms that allow companies to buy and sell emission of pollutants.
This pollution-rights trading scheme received a new boost in September 2015 when Beijing’s reform plan emphasized using market mechanisms to address the country’s environmental problems. Yet, firms didn’t have incentives for the trade. Not a single trade was made in Beijing’s platform. Thus, the quota system remains as a research gap in the future.
118 “Dashoubizhilikongqiwuran, kongqishengtaibuchangnengfouzhibiaoyouzhiben?” (Can the Compensation for Air Pollution Improvement Truly Solve the short-term and the long-term Air Pollution Problem?), Ministry of Environmental Protection of the People’s Republic of China (MEP).
Last accessed: http://zfs.mep.gov.cn/hjjj/hjjjzcywxz/201606/t20160621_354893.shtml
119 In the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Law drafted a target responsibility system and an evaluation system. See more on:
http://www.npc.gov.cn/npc/xinwen/lfgz/flca/2014-12/29/content_1891880.htm
120 Definition of “yellow-label” cars: gasoline-fueled car which can’t reach national I emission standard and diesel-fueled car which can’t meet national III emission standard. These cars have yellow label signs, hence the name. Another classification could be cars that purchased before 1999, before Beijing began to execute the national I emission standard. More information in:
http://car.autohome.com.cn/shuyu/detail_40_41_204.html (In Simplified Chinese)
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The overall changing of 10th to 13th FYP is presented below in appendix 2.
Other Important Environmental Policies
After 2008, several essential national policies were made to further improve the
air pollution problem in China. These acts include 2012 National Environmental
Protection Standard, 2013 “Air Pollution Control Action Plan”, 2014 “Environmental
Protection Law” and 2015 “Air Pollution Control Law”. In the latter two, other than
regulating emission measures and criteria, information disclosure to the mass public
and possible participation also for the mass public. In “Environmental Protection
Law,” a specific chapter (chapter five) were written for the information disclosure and
public participation, indicating that citizens, legal entities and organizations have the
rights to participate and supervise government’s actions on environmental protection
(§53) as well as the rights to report to higher-position department of environmental
protection for inactions of its local government (§57). Same in the “Air Pollution
Control Law,” sentences such as soliciting opinion from relative organizations,
enterprises and the public beforehand appears more than four times. Words including
the statistics and information needs to make public to the majority appears even more
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than 10 times in the law. These signs are showing that the opinion and power from the
mass public is gaining its influence to the central government, public pressure model
once again shows its growing force in China.
Local Governance in Beijing
Responding to central government’s policy, Beijing local government spared no
efforts on environmental governance. As early as 1998, Beijing city already had the
annual air cleansing plan but the upgraded air pollution control measures after the
hosting of 2008 Olympics gave prominence to Beijing’s determination of fighting air
pollution. Not only to achieve the requirements from International Olympics
Committee (IOC) but also to make sure the health and well-being of Beijing’s
citizens.
After Beijing Olympics, the progressive actions toward air pollution control and
the “Green Beijing” spirit had planted in its 2009 air cleansing action plan to keep
improving Beijing’s air. Also in Beijing’s “12th Five-year Plan and Rules Toward
Environmental Protection,” mentioned the success of air pollution control before and
during the Olympics which needs to be sustained and realizes in future relative
policies. Beijing’s 12th FYP also aimed to develop the new goal as becoming a world
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city with Chinese characteristics and continued its “Green Beijing” strategy and paid
more attention to ecology. In year 2013, Beijing also prolonged its action plan into a
four-year plan which covered until 2017. Moreover, Beijing put the atmospheric
pollution control regulations into law even before central government. After the
realization of the law, several main changes occurred including new follow-up
policies121, punishments for illegal emission actions122, and innovation of law
enforcement mechanism. The aggressive actions showed again Beijing’s
determination to fight air pollution. Due to harsher regulations and people’s
awareness of air pollution issues, APEC blue in 2014 was able to be produced.
According to the Deputy director of Beijing’s Environmental Bureau Fang Li, “the
APEC Summit showed that the measures and technologies trajectory in clean air
action plan were tested to be effective, but we still need to make the temporarily
emission reduction into long term emission control plans.”123
Under the 13th FYP, the changing of energy structure in Beijing is forming. From
the heavy use of coal to gradually increasing use of natural gas, it’s air pollution
121 These acts included “Action Plans for Delineating Restricted Area for Beijing City High-Polluted Burning Fuel,” “Restricted Categories for Beijing’s New Industries,” and “Categories for Elimination of Equipment for Beijing Cities’ Industrial and Production Industries.”
122 Till the end of 2014, the total fine for every types of environmental illegal actions had exceeded 100 million RMB. The figure grew in incredible percentage annually.
123 Ibid., 105.
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problem is expected to ease especially in winter times. According to National Energy
Administration (NEA) and International Gas Union (IGU), natural gas has made up to
22% of Beijing’s energy structure till 2015 which is much higher than the average 6%
in China and almost the same as world’s average of 24%. Compared to 1994 when the
total annual usage of natural gas was only 0.13 billion m3, the annual consumption of
natural gas in 2015 was over 14.6 billion m3.124 Beijing Gas Cooperation indicated
that by year 2020 which is the end of 13th FYP, natural gas would occupy 32% of the
overall energy structure in Beijing.125 Not only can Beijing cut the heavy dependence
of coal, but also decrease the air pollution degree caused by electricity producing
procedure.
2008 Beijing Olympics and 2014 APEC Summit considered to be the critical
juncture for Beijing’s air pollution control, offering Beijing government with strong
incentives and force to enhance the air pollution measures level in Beijing.
Self-reinforcing effect were also shown by the citizen’s inquiry about why can’t the people
in Beijing see blue sky and clouds clearly even when the air pollution index was
124Yidu Wang, “Natural Gas is now taking over coal, Blue Sky Days Increased 60%,” July 1, 2016.
Last accessed: https://read01.com/DxQajQ.html
125 “Gasification of Beijing: what would be the whole consideration?” Beijing Gas, June 1, 2016. Last accessed: http://www.bjgas.com/news.aspx?id=5683
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dramatically drop? The message indicated that the citizens in Beijing had tasted and
felt the good air quality during the Olympics and were eager to keep the result. The
domestic self-reinforcing effect from the citizens actually combined with popular
pressure model and stimulate the change of environmental policies and action plans
locally and nationally, the public demand for clean air will add to the impetus for
stronger and stricter policies.126 This self-elevated awareness and environmental
criteria are the most basic and essential element for improving air pollution issue.127
126 Lauri Myllyvirta, “Return of the Smog: Heavy Industry Threatens Beijing’s Pollution Fight,” Green Peace Energy Desk, December 16, 2016. Last accessed:
http://energydesk.greenpeace.org/2016/12/16/return-smog-heavy-industry-threatens-beijings-pollution-fight/
127 Si Cheng Lu, “Beijing’s Environmental Topic: Post-Olympics,” Green Peace, August 7, 2008. Last accessed: http://www.greenpeace.org/hk/news/commentaries/blog/28300/
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