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Chapter 6. Conclusion
My motivation for this study relies on the lack of empirical studies related to the effects of political corruption on EU accession. Previous studies have focused on economic, political, and cultural factors when explaining EU accessions. Unlike the existing literature, this thesis focuses on examining the effect of political corruption to explain the probability of EU accessions for non-member Western Balkan countries. I argue that the EU started to pay more attention to EU membership applicant countries’ corruption issues after the fifth enlargement. Accordingly, I proposed my hypothesis: the reduction effect of corruption on EU accession after 2007 is stronger and significantly different from the reduction effect of corruption on EU accession before 2008.
I adopted a mixed-method approach to test the hypothesis on data from 19 European countries from 1990 to 2018. and the empirical analyses provide strong support for my hypothesis. I find that political corruption is negatively associated with the probability of non-member state to become member of EU after 2007. The main reason is that the EU had
“learned the lesson” from rampant corruption in Bulgaria and Romania, which is seen as a serious factor that undermines the economy and democracy in countries and hinders integration in the EU. The empirical results also show that comparing to the effect of
corruption on EU accession before 2008, the reduction effect of corruption on the probability of EU accession after 2007 is much stronger. This finding suggests that the EU Union has largely overlooked the problems of political corruption in membership applicant countries before the fifth enlargement. Moreover, the finding indicates that political corruption plays significant role for Western Balkan countries to become members of the European Union.
One important implication from this study suggests that countries who aspire to become members of the European Union should focus on fighting corruption by effective measures and substantial policy change. From the economic perspective, fighting against corruption is considered crucial for enabling a functioning market economy and to pave way for better economic development. From the political aspect, fighting against corruption is strongly related to the strengthening of the rule of law. EU conditionality through setting the
benchmarks for fighting corruption had impact in Croatia to take action through USKOK to
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arrest high-level politicians involved in corruption affairs. Croatia’s success in becoming member of EU in 2013 further supports my argument. The case of Croatia serves as an example that prosecution and conviction of political elite and high public officials that are involved in corruption is an important measure that needs to be taken in order for progress to be consider in fighting corruption.
However, impunity of the political elites involved in corruption and organized crime remains a major problem for the rest of Western Balkan countries. In Kosovo, despite record
investments with EULEX from the EU to assist and monitor with the intent to improve the rule of law has proved rather unsuccessful. Kosovo’s goal to become member of EU seems unlike to achieve without proper actions to fight corruption against high-level politicians.
Therefore, for Kosovo and the rest of non-member Western Balkan states, substantial measures and changes need to take place so that they could have good chances in becoming members of the EU.
This study faces limitations on empirical aspect; since most countries of the Western Balkans have not become members yet, and with only Croatia currently member of the EU, it
becomes challenging to estimate the effects of various variables in terms of accession.
Moreover, there is a considerable gap in literature that focuses on measuring corruption as pre-accession condition. Therefore, future studies could conduct comparative research on the interaction effects on different institutional factors related to corruption, organized crime and war reparation on EU accession for EU membership applicants.
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